Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bspot]

LABU closed decently strong. I didn't think I'd be around at close so I bought early, and now it's not looking YOLO than a smart setup on my part. If the gap from today gets filled in the next couple days I'll consider myself lucky.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cloud7


what are your thoughts on smf.to?

sorry cant comment as I dont do much research on individual stocks. if it is a mining company then I expect all will do well in 2016 and the years to come because of how depressed and undersold they were.

I picked specific juniors because they are undervalued compare to most and seems to be around for quite a while which is a good track record for me to invest in, and also a likely candidate of a buyout/merge.

[SilverRex]

here is gdx. one of the reason why I decided to jump into miners now is because there is a potential that the correction could end here. look at the 5 day RSI, every time it rallies off the over sold 30 threshold, it marked a very good bottom entry before the next run takes shape.

second reason is how the metal complex produced 3-3-3 waves correction during the last consolidation which leads me to believe it can do the same yet again and we have another 3-3-3 in play this month.

now EW points to a 5 wave bottom that supposed to target gdx down to the 19-21 area. I am all over this and will add more. So we will see if this is 'A' bottom for the mining complex. I actually dont want to believe it. a sharp move down to the 200 day moving average under 20 would be most welcome imo

http://i.imgur.com/cPvwqts.png

[bball2]

Originally posted by bspot
LABU/XBI looking set up for a pull back. Opened a small LABD position to see what happens tomorrow. Overall trend is still up, so won't look to hang on long.
Nice call :thumbsup:

[bspot]

^Had I waited until close, this would have worked great. My entry point made the gains not worth the risk I took however, but glad to not take a loss on this.

Nice call on SIL.V SIL.VerRex!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
^Had I waited until close, this would have worked great. My entry point made the gains not worth the risk I took however, but glad to not take a loss on this.

Nice call on SIL.V SIL.VerRex!

not looking for a quick flip, it 'will' be a very nice call months from now if the metal's recent correction is finished. but silver makes another dash under 16.00 it may open into the 80 cents which I will gladly add

[bspot]

I'm planning to hold as well. just liked your timing of entry :)

[riander5]

Tough to say what the hell gold is doing. Making some kind of complex correction from its last trend up, but it has lingered in the correction for too long for me to know when its actually coming out. Lots of false breakouts so far, or attempted breakouts, whichever you'd prefer

[SilverRex]

miners are holding relatively well, gold is trying to reject price under 1230s as that is the previous trend line break. reclosing above this will certainly add fuel to fire

not very impressed with Meg as it continues to under-perform relative to other energy stocks. I am switching to hou instead

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex
miners are holding relatively well, gold is trying to reject price under 1230s as that is the previous trend line break. reclosing above this will certainly add fuel to fire

not very impressed with Meg as it continues to under-perform relative to other energy stocks. I am switching to hou instead

POU has been a decent trading instrument for me. And I'm not worried about holding it for a bit if I get caught on the wrong side like I would be with HOU.

[SilverRex]

gdx volume is very weak and the last few times it was this weak it pretty much ensured a rally right after as sellers are running out and price needs to rise to entice sellers to come back.

[ickyflex]

Any spec on MEG sale of Alliance pipeline or sale altogether

Just seems odd the stock has not moved with crude for a month while everything else has. Gotta wonder if something is going on behind the scenes.

[SilverRex]

here is my count on gold. the current target is the rise off 1218 yesterday was only 3 waves hence if gold was to slowly work back up then it would appear it is in some sort of wave IV correction that would slightly test above 1235 only to fall again towards a lower low. This lower low I am referring to may be the 1180-1190 price target. this would be ideal as it would fulfill a lot requirement in a text book technical correction.

However since this current move down in gold is a wave III, it can continue to extend. meaning after hours it could break below 1218 and this would still only be wave III. However, given the sharp declining wedge developing, any drop below 1218 will be quickly be bought up and price will still go after 1235. This area (marked in green) is the rising trendline that was broken. it has so far provided resistance and knocked price back down.

If gold is to make a bullish case of a 3-3-3 wave correction by ending the bottom now then we should see a strong move back above 1255 next week. this will most likely invalidate that a 5th wave is on the table.

With US having it's long weekend coming up. market may be very quiet.

http://i.imgur.com/s4gWZrI.png

[bball2]

Originally posted by SilverRex
here is my count on gold. the current target is the rise off 1218 yesterday was only 3 waves hence if gold was to slowly work back up then it would appear it is in some sort of wave IV correction that would slightly test above 1235 only to fall again towards a lower low. This lower low I am referring to may be the 1180-1190 price target. this would be ideal as it would fulfill a lot requirement in a text book technical correction.

However since this current move down in gold is a wave III, it can continue to extend. meaning after hours it could break below 1218 and this would still only be wave III. However, given the sharp declining wedge developing, any drop below 1218 will be quickly be bought up and price will still go after 1235. This area (marked in green) is the rising trendline that was broken. it has so far provided resistance and knocked price back down.

If gold is to make a bullish case of a 3-3-3 wave correction by ending the bottom now then we should see a strong move back above 1255 next week. this will most likely invalidate that a 5th wave is on the table.

With US having it's long weekend coming up. market may be very quiet.

http://i.imgur.com/s4gWZrI.png

Nice :thumbsup: I'm going to be holding my short DUST (3x leverage bear gold) until next week. Had a limit close position at 15 this morning, but it only dropped to 15.03 before bouncing back up. Should fall well below that if gold goes anywhere near 1255 next week

[SilverRex]

looks like gold did went the path of making a small 5th wave lower after hours and price has somewhat recovered. If that was the completion of wave III or C then I expect gold should slowly work it's way back towards 1235

oil is so far having a bit more weakness than I thought after being rejected off 50.00 however I still think we may see price make one more dash towards or above 50.00 (I want to see 51.3) would be a nice target before a bigger correction.

short term it has broken a rising channel so if it does not recover quickly back above 49.25 this morning, it will head lower to the 200 EMA which is around 48.3

[SilverRex]

just wanted to post the silver chart. A very long time ago I mention the possibility of silver forming a reverse head and shoulder pattern or even a cup and handle pattern that would target 2+ dollars upon breakout. and essentially it has fulfilled the pattern and now a even larger cup and handle or reverse head and shoulder pattern is developing that would upon breakout target the 22-23 area.

of course for the next couple of weeks I would say price will most likely grind side ways and may even drop a bit further if there are any panic selling. Silver under 16 is a very good bargain. if it reaches anywhere near the low 15s it is a screaming buy technically speaking.

so I suggest to start taking in a position in this sector and start to accumulate as price heads lower.

http://i.imgur.com/k2pJDLw.png

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by SilverRex
just wanted to post the silver chart. A very long time ago I mention the possibility of silver forming a reverse head and shoulder pattern or even a cup and handle pattern that would target 2+ dollars upon breakout. and essentially it has fulfilled the pattern and now a even larger cup and handle or reverse head and shoulder pattern is developing that would upon breakout target the 22-23 area.

of course for the next couple of weeks I would say price will most likely grind side ways and may even drop a bit further if there are any panic selling. Silver under 16 is a very good bargain. if it reaches anywhere near the low 15s it is a screaming buy technically speaking.

so I suggest to start taking in a position in this sector and start to accumulate as price heads lower.

http://i.imgur.com/k2pJDLw.png

I liked your tip on YRI for gold, any similar companies in the silver sector?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


I liked your tip on YRI for gold, any similar companies in the silver sector?

im more focused on gold miners.

however I do like the potential in silver that will out perform gold as long as you can stomach the volatility.

slw.to is the only big cap I may play and looking at how silver has dropped lower recently, the stock continues to trade sideways. Another hint bottom is in sight and tells you the sector is getting ready to move higher.

the only other one I watching is pinks sil.v and ipt.v, although it would appear sil.v has a greater trading range. when it comes to silver I try to go big or go home. but my core position will remain in gold since there are alot more volume which gives it more stability and a bit more predictability.

[SilverRex]

with the US long weekend, wasnt expecting miners to be starting to take a hit. doesnt matter, watch for any panic selloff if miners suddenly drop 10-15% it would be a very good time to pick up a position or two regardless if your a short term or long term trader.

partly I wasnt expecting gold to break a new low after a small bounce in the pre-market. the new low has opened a possibility that gold can suddenly move down into another 5 waves down. which explains why miners suddenly became weak. Gold needs to recover quickly otherwise pressure remains to the downside

I believe the focus is on the dollar index as it is trying to breakout from the down trend line holding it back for a few days. the breakout and re-resurgence in dollar strength will no doubt hurt the metal complex.

will we see 1180-1190? I personally would love to pick up more mining shares at that level

[SilverRex]

if oil can close above 49.25 on the week it is highly likely we will see a higher high next week for oil.

nearly forgot Janet Y's speech today may swing the metal market one way or the other

[SilverRex]

not sure who here still holds Meg. My attention will be shifting towards gold/silver more often and will only play a smaller size in the energy sector. with oil having to touch off 50.00, it will get increasingly difficult to trade as we are far from the bottom struck at 26 and so price can obviously keep stepping higher, but it can also grind sideways and worse a huge sell off.

but lets look at Meg one more time. I am still seeing the full completion of wave I or A back in the middle of April. a sharp sell off which leads me to believe is the wave II. A bullish scenario is we are in wave 1/2 i/ii with wave iii ready to begin. confirmation when price breaks and sustains above 6.46.

The only concern I have with this count is the rise from 5.2 to 6.80 appears to be 3 waves. And 3 waves are typically a corrective wave. So a bearish scenario could develop and have price break lower than 5.21.

A third scenario would be a 3-3-3 that will see price slightly higher than 6.46 then make a final sell off.

Key will be the next rally and see if it is corrective or impulsive.

Obviously direction hinges on the oil. if oil keeps moving higher say towards 55-56 then the bullish case will occur imo

updated the chart to include that Meg is in a large rising channel

http://i.imgur.com/6ndWEJ5.png

[asp integra]

I still have some meg. Hopefully it pops up and I can get out

[ickyflex]

I'm still thinking there must be a sale of the pipeline coming soon or something.

[jacky4566]

Originally posted by asp integra
I still have some meg. Hopefully it pops up and I can get out

You and me both buddy. MEG is more flat lined than the graveyard next door.

[bspot]

Originally posted by ickyflex
I'm still thinking there must be a sale of the pipeline coming soon or something.

I think you're right.

I know Devon is anxious to dump it to improve their balance sheet.

[SilverRex]

wow gold finally was able to take out previous low at 1207. we are not far from 1180-1191 which is my own desirable target.

gold is very oversold on the daily chart.

anyways

retracement levels begin at the following levels.

yri.to
4.9
4.35
3.79

K.to
5.35
4.7
4.04


mind you miners had never able to even reach the first retracement level since the run off December. I reckon there will be plenty of funds buying starting in those area. Magic number is 15.8 silver which is exactly at the bottom of a falling channel which is also the 50% retracement of the rally this year. 15.8 silver = 1182 gold.

come on, I want a lower entry :)

although with gold breaking below 1207, technically it has fulfilled the ABC wave structure (with C lower than A at 1207)

very exciting to watch in this sector

[bspot]

^ Does possible gold price action over the weekend put these at risk of not seeing full retracement? Are you going to partially load up more before close?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
^ Does possible gold price action over the weekend put these at risk of not seeing full retracement? Are you going to partially load up more before close?

i already opened up a few core positions early in the week when miners first made new lows despite gold dropping today, it still has not broken my entry price. that is encouraging in someway but not so much if I wanted to buy more shares.

I dont think weekend has any impact (if you recall back in december gold never made new lows but during a correction/sell off the miners actually made new lows so just because gold heads lower doesnt mean miners would follow and vice versa.

Also Gold has just finally entered an initial buy zone and so does the miners. No one knows if the correction would be severe and if fear and panic sets in (assuming gold drops to 1140-1150) that will be another great opportunity. Buy when others are fearful actually works more often than not

[SilverRex]

well gold's 1046-1303 run the 38% retrace is around 1206 we basically tested this today. it is a double support along with a previous low at 1207, who wants to bet we get a bounce here regardless of trend?

huge last minute buy volume on gdx. looks like someone or fund is betting the correction ends at 1206

[SilverRex]

here is another chart for anyone to think about

lets look at the US dollar index. as you can see every since it topped last November it has since been on a bearish trend . every counter rise of 3-4 weeks would then drop lower impulsively. What use to be support on the 200 EMA has now turned as a major resistance. So if this pattern continues, we should see the US dollar hit a wall with a double resistance trendline + 200 EMA next week forcing the dollar back down.

a cycle counter I am following is suggesting dollar will need to head much higher even breaking the higher down trendline during this cycle which means we could see much lower gold prices and a possible scary correction in the miners.

I am for one would be more than welcome to pickup such opportunity but might I add that in a scenario where the US dollar suddenly drops impulsively again starting next week would mean the correction for gold will end and miners will begin a new leg much much higher.

This may even add fuel to an already strong oil prices pushing it up to 55-60 in the coming weeks.

http://i.imgur.com/APOl5mk.png

[riander5]

Sold out of DUST yesterday afternoon as I didnt want to hold overnight... dont like the gamble.

Should have loaded up this morning! Congrats to whoever is holding it

[SilverRex]

ok weekend chart on gdx.

this is the EW count that I am following.

There are currently two paths. Green count and Red count. As gold and miners correct. The idea isnt if it will make new highs it is when.

Shortly after gold temporary breaking the previous low at 1207, it has fulfilled a min requirement for this bullish setup to unfold.

That is why I took a few core mining shares position this week just in case the green path begins next week.

Reason for bullish (green path)
-dollar index may turn around (see my previous chart on USD)
-miners and gold oversold (last 2 times when GDX hit oversold RSI5 day it was a bottom entry)
-comparing to the previous two gold bull which started in 2000 and 2009, a cycle bottom appears to end some where end of May
Confirmation would be to see gdx break the upper down trendline and especially taking out the wave (B) high just under 26 that a very aggressive breakout move is to occur

Reason for the bearish (red path)
-Again comparing to the last two gold bull, the miners correction was around 20% in May. Right now gdx has only dropped 16-17% and hui about 17.5% so there could still be another 3% or more to go. But depending on if this sector only hitting a 20% correction, it can still be of the green path. I expect a red path to give back even more
-The top above 26 was wave I and so wave II will correct longer relative the the entire rise off the December low. 3 months rise and 2 month to correct pointing to a low in late June.
-Correction hasnt finished and a lower low with another ABC wave will develop over the next 3-4 weeks to could bring gdx another 10-15% lower
-USD (as posted on my previous chart) will breakout and march towards the upper down trend line. a much stronger USD will no doubt hamper any gold strength and will continue to force it lower.
-exact mirroring effect of how the Fed announced rate hike to the actual rate hike last year. gold dropped 145 dollars and begin to rise shortly after rates were raised. So gold could in theory drop from 1303 to about 1158 then begin to rise after rate hike has been announced.


In Summary
we have hit our initial buy zone target and anything 10-20% lower should be a great buying opportunity for both a medium term and long term hold as I believe the mental complex will offer the greatest return for the next couple of years.

I have been waiting for a re-entry into this sector for months. I am completely shocked when miners did not correct enough back in March and I exited my position way too early. But nothing goes up forever and the moment to re-enter has finally come.

I personally would pick the metal sectors over energy and other sectors simply because in an inflationary backdrop (which is what I believe) everything will rise together. some sector may even move into a parabolic bubble phase. which eventually pop and lead into the next financial crisis which means gold will hit a parabolic stage of it's own as all asset moves into gold and silver.

in 2000 we had the tech bubble resulted in a stock crash
in 2008 we had the housing and stock crash
in 20xx we will have a housing, stock and bond crash and the only thing left for liquidity to move into for safe haven will be the metal complex. the next crash will most likely reform the monetary system in some form or the other.

http://i.imgur.com/J055VyV.png

[SilverRex]

quiet day on the market due to the US holiday.

while my focus in in the metal sectors I am still playing oil until I need my funds to cost average down on the miners if it can get to a better buying zone.

with oil clearly having to test 48.75 multiple times. Will use this as a short term gauge that oil remains bullish above it and bearish below it. The 200 EMA is quickly catching up and will become a double support under 48.75 as well. Even if oil breaks down completely I do not believe it signals the end of the oil rally, rather it is just a correction in a larger degree. a 3-4 dollar correction instead of 1-2 dollar etc.

Oil is currently flirting with what appears to be trying to breakout from the down trend line. but due to a low volume day, I dont want to take any breakout seriously. However the larger rising channel still points to 51-52 upper target shall oil suddenly continues to step higher (most likely due to USD dropping as USD has tested the 200 day moving average this morning which is providing a little bit of a lift in the metals which I will look at later)

Last week oil closed higher on the weekly chart so I expect oil should technically make yet another multi month high this week.

for Meg holder, not much change from the last Meg chart I posted. other than mentioning the bullish possibility of Meg will get a very nice breakout rally if it can close above the down trendline + the 50 day MA near 6.46

while it remains weak, it is also near the rising channel with the bottom of the channel near 5.65? unless it closes below this I continue to expect a neutral to sem-bullish scenario to unfold

http://i.imgur.com/1naGlVs.png

[SilverRex]

last week shortly after gold bouncing off 2011 I mention if price breaks a new low it would open up another 5 waves down suggesting the current wave III or C down is not complete. and so far it has been grinding lower and lower.

the initial sign that a bottom is in would be to see gold recapture above 2011.48 follow by breaking above the 50 day MA as well as the down trend line that has been holding price down in this trend for the past 2 weeks. I suspect gold will get a 30-50 dollar counter trend rally from the extreme over sold condition regardless of direction.

Depending on how the rally unfolds, we may get a clue if gold has further low to go or the correction is coming to an end.

Mind you the 200 EMA on the daily is only slightly lower at 1193. So we are ever so close in testing a key support.

http://i.imgur.com/iqoWDUn.png

[riander5]

Golds fucked - any wave pattern you create just gets invalidated. This weird correction has gone on too long to be a simple continuation of the last trend.

At this point id rely much less on E-wave and fib and just wait for daily momentum to cross over up as an entry point and a weekly upturn as a confirmation.

Until then short away!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Golds fucked - any wave pattern you create just gets invalidated. This weird correction has gone on too long to be a simple continuation of the last trend.

At this point id rely much less on E-wave and fib and just wait for daily momentum to cross over up as an entry point and a weekly upturn as a confirmation.

Until then short away!

gold is in a down trend until it can produce some sort of reversal/breakout signal or cross overs. which is the same thing as EW driving another 5 waves down keeping it negative because the last rise was only 3 waves (corrective) and the new low confirmed this . So unless gold can re-capture back above 1211.48, it lookes like another mini 5 waves down lower still

The only question is if this correction will be mild or severe (like what we saw in biotech when it suddenly over shoots to the downside shaking everyone out including myself) but just like biotech, once the bottom is in, this sector will be back to making new highs. Its the one sector I am not afraid of holding.

although shorting an infant bull market is extremely difficult. it was much easier when gold was near 1300 oppose to being neutral on the price range that could now go both ways. Your just thinking on a higher level and waiting for a swing low or a reversal on the daily.

I like watching the macro level but it sure is volatile as hell.

I have been waiting for gold to drop for a few months. I hope it can at least test the 1180-1190 area so I Can add a 2nd position. Will be buying every 10-15% dip in miners rather than trying to catch the wave down.

[riander5]

You buying actual gold miner stocks or ETFs?

If I had just ignored all the more complicated E-wave and fibs and just followed good ol RSI on daily... could have made a cool 50% on DUST

Im too much of a coward to leave any significant capital in leveraged ETFs overnight though :cry:

[Perfect Dark]

Anyone still in HOU today? What the hell happened there?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
You buying actual gold miner stocks or ETFs?

If I had just ignored all the more complicated E-wave and fibs and just followed good ol RSI on daily... could have made a cool 50% on DUST

Im too much of a coward to leave any significant capital in leveraged ETFs overnight though :cry:

I personally liked following the actual gold miners. Have been since Sep/Oct last year. I dont like leveraged ETF other than a short term trade. however 1x is ok but there are not much options for canada, so the most typical ones is GDX and GDXJ in USD

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Perfect Dark
Anyone still in HOU today? What the hell happened there?
i think a reverse split took place it does not impact the price that it tracks but a necessary action for all ETFs because they cant goto zero

[riander5]

Originally posted by Perfect Dark
Anyone still in HOU today? What the hell happened there?

Congrats bro - you are rich!

All the leveraged ETF's they reverse split after they lose value (contango etc its been covered many times here).. not sure what their criteria for reverse splitting timing / ratio is, but they all do it.

Your bank / yahoo and google finance will all adjust usually by the end of the business day

[Perfect Dark]

Thanks guys.

[GT.....O?]

Finally a big win, a buyout on the table for CPXX. :clap:

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


Do you still have some ARIA? I am still waiting for payday..:banghead:

Patience is gonna pay off, I swear :rofl:

[bspot]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


Patience is gonna pay off, I swear :rofl:

Hey, look at that! I'm in the green again! I sold off about half when I was getting impatient and was back to even. I'm sure it will now double some time soon ;)

[FlamingC19]

Thoughts on Labu/Labd at this point?

[riander5]

Originally posted by GT.....O?
Finally a big win, a buyout on the table for CPXX. :clap:

Lol 3 dollars to 30 in a few months. That would have been a solid pick!

[GT.....O?]

Originally posted by riander5


Lol 3 dollars to 30 in a few months. That would have been a solid pick!

Yeah, unfortunately i only got in a couple weeks ago at $14.77
But I'll take it!

Should bought in when i was tipped off about it at $8.37... but shoulda, coulda, woulda....

[bjstare]

XBI pushed past the recent (edit) triple top resistance. Does this mean it could run a bit now (possibly to December highs)?

Looking for someone smarter than me to comment? haha

[bspot]

Originally posted by scotty_69
Thoughts on Labu/Labd at this point?

My thoughts are, I'm scared to touch it, but LABD has me mildly tempted for the very very short term basis.

XBI is starting to get squeezed, and has been green for so long it seems like it may need to re-test support.

It is coming to an area with very strong resistance that would take some massive volume to push through. When it does, all aboard LABU.

My conservative bet would be that XBI touches the low $57s again, which would give you a chance at maybe 5% return on LABD.

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_d8892db81b2df8a486f3a2cbae66a3fc.png

Sorry for the mess of lines.

I'll let SiverRex comment, as I'm not confident in my EW counts, but it looks like XBI is also in wave V up, and likely nearing the top.

[bspot]

^After all that typing I convinced myself to buy a small LABD position in an attempt for beer money. The problem being if I'm not around at the right time to jump out, these seems like it's asking for trouble.

[riander5]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
SUNW is a great buy at $1.85. Easy to make 30% on this one.

Why didnt i listen :banghead:

Your solar predictions always seem to be bang on

[riander5]

Considering a YRI play in light of golds reversal. Daily RSI crossing over... ill wait for one more up day of gold to confirm its bucked this downtrend before I get in

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5
Considering a YRI play in light of golds reversal. Daily RSI crossing over... ill wait for one more up day of gold to confirm its bucked this downtrend before I get in

I jumped in yesterday on open, was nice to see it come around a bit today.

edit: hoping to see GDX reach at least the 25-26 range before I consider unloading this.

[bspot]

Originally posted by bspot
^After all that typing I convinced myself to buy a small LABD position in an attempt for beer money. The problem being if I'm not around at the right time to jump out, these seems like it's asking for trouble.

5m and 1h chart look for XBI look to be flagging and leave me nervous it may be ready to bust through the upper resistance. I'll be jumping out of LABD at the next small dip in XBI as I think I made a bad call thinking this would near the bottom of the wedge once more soon enough that there is upside in LABD to make the trade worth it.

EDIT again: Once again, I get faked out. Going to stick with the LABD to see if it gets a little run. XBI looking weak again.

[el_fefes]

Jumped into USLV at 13.92. Hopefully silver has hit a bottom.

[riander5]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Jumped into USLV at 13.92. Hopefully silver has hit a bottom.

Fuck me I wish I had been watching silver. Look at how perfectly that puppy follows indicators.

Even follows relatively well defined E waves.

Big bucks could have been made on DSLV

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Jumped into USLV at 13.92. Hopefully silver has hit a bottom.

it was logical for gold/silver to start turning around after being so oversold and was due for a daily cycle low and a bounce to occur.

now the question is, will this be the bottom or just a counter rally follow by one more 1-2 week sell off to a lower low.

[SilverRex]

also despite a sudden drop in oil, Meg actually is holding up it's gain quite well. something I have not seen for a while. Does it mean something? I hope so

[SilverRex]

looks like a double top on oil at 50.00 and as I have said it has now moved into a 3-4 dollar correction. currently I expect oil to land a bottom some where between 46-47.50

with oil inventory as well as OPEC meeting, plenty of news to move the market. it may actually be good to have oil sell off on rumor and buy on news

[bball2]

Any of you guys still in Twin Butte Energy? Up 30% this morning on the following:


May 31 (Reuters) - Twin Butte Energy Ltd <TBE.TO>
* Twin Butte announces extension of credit facilities
* It's bank syndicate has agreed to extend maturity date of
Twin Butte's $85 million credit facility from May 31, 2016 to
June 1, 2016

So a 1 day extension? :dunno:

[bjstare]

This is working out well so far. Took my money out of POU last week, dumped it into YRI mon morning. I'll probably consider buying back into POU in the near future. Would like to see it sub-$8 first, but that may not happen

[ercchry]

I'm still in tbe... Averaged down to $0.14... Original position was like $1.20 or something :rofl:

[troyl]

Anyone looking at the TBE debentures? They would get paid out before any equity, should anything be left over.

[riander5]

TBE is a steaming pile

[SilverRex]

a pretty good recovery on oil but still down. unless technically it can recapture 48.75 and sustain above this, I feel the drop isnt quite done considering it hasnt even corrected down to the 47.50 retracement level.

as for gold, not sure what it is trying to do as it has not put in the 30-50 dollar counter trend rally I was hoping for. which means, it is still on the table and could reverse all off a sudden.

my eyes is closely watching yamana and kinross as they are close to the 38% level. I will add a position here it it gets there. probably wont see this happen unless gold tanks 10-15 dollar from the current level

[SilverRex]

swing low in gold, dollar index looks ready to dive. lets see if this is the 30-50 gold bounce finally getting underway

[SilverRex]

i was trying to figure out technically why oil rallied off 47.75 which is in the middle of no where. while it was the sources and rumor pointing to OPEC will be freezing output. I looked at HOU chart and picture speaks a thousand words

looks like oil is in some sort of extended wave III. watch out if 51.39 oil does not stop it, next target will be 55-56

http://i.imgur.com/gYkPaV1.png

[bspot]

XBI is getting squeezed. Making one more attempt at LABD beer money. This is where XBI could never break through in April. If it goes, I'm tempted to give LABU another run as there is very little resistance above this point for a while:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_6b28bd58df34b4cf623168c8f70bbc97.png

[Matty_10]

Has anybody ever seen daily extensions before, TBE was granted another one day extension. Any theories anyone might have on this, waiting to here the news from OPEC? Bidding up the share price for an outright sale?

[SilverRex]

looks like unofficial rumor that Opec cant get any agreement on the table is sending oil down sharply to start the morning.

considering oil could not make it any support levels yesterday perhaps will get it's chance. I expect first good bounce at 47.5 if oil is able to break below yesterday's low

as for gold, still looking for the 30-50 dollar bounce, but if it starts on the negative side of things. look for the possibility of gold punching slightly yesterdays low at 1205 that would create a good divergence to momentum for the next leg up imo

[SilverRex]

Meg is right on the rising trendline. do or die. so far every time Meg is under 6.00 it usually find its way about a dollar higher. will see if this trend continues

http://i.imgur.com/o0o7edY.png

[SilverRex]

also silver has tested the 50% retracement level of the entire rise off the December low. and anything under 16 at this time is a good buy zone

I fully expect silver to start to counter rally and if history continues we should see some sort of similar zig zag movement like the previous left shoulder in 2014 so the current setup is very good for a short term trade.

http://i.imgur.com/7umVMLC.png

[bjstare]

Originally posted by bspot
XBI is getting squeezed. Making one more attempt at LABD beer money. This is where XBI could never break through in April. If it goes, I'm tempted to give LABU another run as there is very little resistance above this point for a while:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_6b28bd58df34b4cf623168c8f70bbc97.png

Seems to have gotten past the resistance. Question is, will it take this chance to run now? (rather, continue to run)

[bball2]

Originally posted by cjblair


Seems to have gotten past the resistance. Question is, will it take this chance to run now? (rather, continue to run)
Throwing some beer money into LABU to see if it can keep going :thumbsup:

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
SUNW is a great buy at $1.85. Easy to make 30% on this one.

$2.44 today.

C'mon guys, just trying to make everyone rich! :rofl:

[bjstare]

Originally posted by bball2

Throwing some beer money into LABU to see if it can keep going :thumbsup:

I'm considering it, just putting in a tight stop.

edit: Having said that, 5m RSI is through the roof. I don't like buying with that RSI so high.

[bball2]

Originally posted by cjblair


I'm considering it, just putting in a tight stop.
Did a quick entry at 38.45 and exit at 38.94, reentered at 38.79, keeping an eye on my stop limit right now.

Edit: ahh well, stop losses triggered at 38.60, enough profit for 2x pints after commissions and everything though :rofl:

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by cjblair


I'm considering it, just putting in a tight stop.

edit: Having said that, 5m RSI is through the roof. I don't like buying with that RSI so high.

I went with LABD based on RSI.

[bjstare]

Yeah, I'm happy watching this from the sidelines for now haha. I can't make up my mind definitively, and I stopped trying to just guess a long time ago.

[Khyron]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


$2.44 today.

C'mon guys, just trying to make everyone rich! :rofl:

Still playing with PHM?

[bball2]

Originally posted by bball2
This one's a bit of a riskier play, but shorted SRPT yesterday when it spiked up to $20, all indications are that the FDA will not be approving their Duchenne drug (small sample testing, no placebo, not great results, and previously rejected by the FDA panel) but their stock has improved close to 100% after falling hard on the first announcement.
Definitely should've held on to that short longer; down 25% today. But too much uncertainty with the FDA delaying their decision. At least got out even but would've been a very nice return if I was able to wait till today to close.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by Khyron


Still playing with PHM?

PHM ripped me a new asshole

[Khyron]

Originally posted by ickyflex


PHM ripped me a new asshole

I'm down as well but TD is now referring it as a strong buy, they have expanding customer base and they're buying assets. Just one that's been in the tread a few times last year. (I'm still negative on SUNW as well (Solar3d).

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by Khyron


Still playing with PHM?

Never got into that one from what I can recall.

[bjstare]

Decided to jump back into POU on the little sell-off today, got in at 8.04. I'll probably target a sell around the high-$8 range, another buy if it goes low $7/high$6 range.

[bball2]

Missed the last time action on LABU, but looks like it really took off near the end there!

[bspot]

Dammit :banghead:

I ended up in the hospital last night and missed the chance to buy LABU on XBI breaking through that resistance.

I've been waiting for that buy opportunity for a long time, but I feel like I'd be chasing it getting in now after the gains today.

[SilverRex]

well the NFP report this morning should be the ticket to move the market up or down.

for oil my main bias remains bullish for 51 oil and possibly even 55-56. While it showed quite a bit strength the past few days by recovering every significant drop, the next time if it crashes back down again below 48.25 may not be so nice.

If it does draw down below yesterday's low, I expect it to still be within a 3-4 dollar correction from 50.

as for gold, any drop below 1200 should be a instant pickup. Key area lies at about 1187.

Ideally I would love to see gold initially tank to this area and cause a 10% panic sell in gold shares, which I will be adding a 2nd position.

Again I am still expecting a 30-50 dollar gold counter move on the horizon, the only question is, will itgo low first or move up from here.

so now we wait

update...looks like news is out, gold is getting a huge boost
missed by a lot on the downside, +38k vs +160k consensus..

[SilverRex]

well gold one shot right up against the previous broken trendline. gold remains bearish unless it can trade above this line and also the 50 day EMA near 1240

and silver with a double resistance down trend line and previous top at 16.55ish that could act and hold price down.

http://i.imgur.com/A1j3j66.png

[SilverRex]

remember this chart I posted a few times? I was so expecting the US dollar to get rejected by the 200 day EMA, and so far so good.

does history repeat? if you are only looking at the previous pattern, the US dollar should according to this chart drop to a new low (that will be insanely bullish for gold and even oil)

however if you follow cycles, the US dollar is not due for a bottom and so very well it can still rise back up another wave C top (this is where the camp of a lower gold prices into end of the month comes into play)

http://i.imgur.com/Qnx2NzP.png

[SilverRex]

clearly despite a weak US dollar, oil was still able to drop this morning. So it is doing it's own thing. it is consolidating between 48-49 as I suspect many wants to short oil believing 50 is the top and down she goes. but there is also the bull camp buying on every dip.

wave structures only offers a guide and the likelihood of where things are headed but never guarantees. although I have seen this pattern play out when oil first corrected 7 dollars from 42-35, it dropped initially, made a couple of swings (zig zag) flat correction only to turn lower.

the the red path is ideally makes more sense and the buying would be good near 46.50-47.50 range.

but given how weak the US dollar look this morning, we will see if the bull camp can win the day by breaking out

http://i.imgur.com/BwOK3pw.png

[bball2]

Fuck yeah gold, my short position in DUST is doing fantastic :thumbsup:

[bball2]

Originally posted by bspot
Dammit :banghead:

I ended up in the hospital last night and missed the chance to buy LABU on XBI breaking through that resistance.

I've been waiting for that buy opportunity for a long time, but I feel like I'd be chasing it getting in now after the gains today.
Let's keep an eye out for the next one, hope you're feeling better though bud!

[Vanish3d]

:clap: NUGT

[SilverRex]

now if only oil breaks out to the upside and pushes Meg 10-15% that would make my day :nut:

[SilverRex]

sil.v is finally doing it's thing... so tempted to sell

[Vanish3d]

I think I'm selling NUGT now. RSI is nuts

[ercchry]

Damn it... Sold off my gold position yesterday

[SilverRex]

ok going to take a chance and sold all my miners to see if I can catch a drop for re-entry