Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Vanish3d]

I'm doing a manual trailing stop. Keep raising my stop to 1% below the top till it closes me out

[bspot]

Originally posted by bball2

Let's keep an eye out for the next one, hope you're feeling better though bud!

Thanks man! Crazy LABD action today. Makes me wonder if I would have gotten caught with my pants down on LABU anyway.


Originally posted by SilverRex
ok going to take a chance and sold all my miners to see if I can catch a drop for re-entry

Yesterday, although it felt a little late, I added a second position in miners.

Dumped ICG, FR, GPR, SIL and YRI this morning :rofl:

Thanks for posting your charts, I haven't really had time to put towards it the last couple days, and seeing everything run up against resistance makes me happy to dump and wait for re-entry.

[SilverRex]

I hope oil wins and breaks out to the upside rather than the downside as Meg is trying hard to stay sideways until the next major oil rally. Meg will breakout above 5.93, doesnt have much to go on the downside otherwise risk technical chart damage.

[SilverRex]

looks like oil wants to breakdown out of the consolidation instead

[SilverRex]

miners not coming down. looks like it needs to head higher before it can trigger a profit taking event. re-entering half of my position.

[troyl]

Added another tranche of MEG. Looks like it wants to hold 5.80 ish. Hope the trend remains intact.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
miners not coming down. looks like it needs to head higher before it can trigger a profit taking event. re-entering half of my position.

Im betting on a double top at todays high for gdx and just got some DUST at 12.05.

let's see if it plays out. Either way I'm out of it today win or loss

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


Im betting on a double top at todays high for gdx and just got some DUST at 12.05.

let's see if it plays out. Either way I'm out of it today win or loss

good luck

Id imagine best place to go short on gold is 16.50+ silver and 1260-1270 gold. even a false breakout higher to trap bulls

if you look at the last couple of big moves in gold by 20+ dollars, it usually makes a higher high and producing a divergence before it collapses.

i just thought the miners were very stable at the current price range, so it needs to head much higher to trigger a sell off

[ercchry]

I'm using dgc for gold... 8% gain today, I don't think that's going to hold so I bought some option puts... Just needs to head lower before July expiry

[bball2]

I'm using DUST (3x leverage bear tracking Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF); and holding a Short position. So getting a bit of positive decay with the volatility but up 30% today with the rise in gold :thumbsup:

[bspot]

Prepare for gold to drop. Staying out of miners for now, but bought a bit of HGU to protect myself from getting priced out.

Anyone going short on gold or looking for reentry, you're welcome :D

[SilverRex]

grads to all who made some weekend beer money today. I am going to take a leap of faith and envision big money wants to trap everyone on a gold breakout move above 1260 then we get another 2-3 week drop for a lower low under 1200.

I will attempt to hold my miners a little longer after re-entry and exit once we get near breakout zone. If it is a true breakout, then well I will just have to buy back during a retest on breakout.

oil still holding up well. could close the week on a relatively neutral to semi-bullish tone. sill expecting 51 oil, perhaps next week

[Vanish3d]

so much for the plan to make a quick flip on DUST at 12
to hold not to hold

gdx is just not quitting!

[SilverRex]

the buying volume in the last few minutes on gdx is sick

and abx also have some of the strongest volume to date.

after all the weakest Non farm payroll numbers in 6 years is no joke.

if fed does not raise rates in 2 weeks, gold could be looking at a higher high.

I will have to sleep on this very hard to see what I want to do with my position next week.

My current plan is dump all my shares if it gaps up monday. anything with gold in the 1250s is danger unless a true breakout event takes hold and it just keeps stomping higher.

[bball2]

Was able to close my DUST position at 10.99, shorted it at just over 17 :thumbsup:

Going to keep a close eye on GDX next week for a re-entry into NUGT or DUST next week.

[bjstare]

Well that was a nice surprise. I hadn't checked my accounts til now, cause I was golfing and running errands. Hopefully YRI doesn't gap down on Monday; I'll unload soon though (as per my plan which was when GDX $25-26 range). :clap:

Now for that next run up towards $50 with oil...

[SilverRex]

lets take a quick look at today's gold chart.

friday's move was a surprise and although the expectation was supposed to be a counter trend 30-50 dollars, however since the move was impulsive in nature I have to give it some credit that there is potential something else is happening. such as gold's intermediate decline low may have been struck at 1200. wave count so far is clearly in a wave iii move. So I will continue to hold my miners as long as wave 1 at 1220 is not broken.

gold has a lot of work to do if it is to breakout now and that is beyond 1266, however silver is more interesting because it is already near the down trendline, any move above 16.55 that is sustainable will be very bullish

http://i.imgur.com/KcQZf1E.png

[SilverRex]

as for oil, looks like the bulls won that consolidation and broke out this week. After all, the weekly chart ended in a neutral to semi-bullish close last week so I still expect 51+ oil.

key support is 48.3x, the best part about this breakout is that, any close below the 48.39 would immediately turn the chart bearish. so I will continue to hold Meg as long as oil remains above 48 for a shot above 51 oil

http://i.imgur.com/tE7PGNa.png

[SilverRex]

gdx is a bit more bullish than gold having to nearly broke into a new high despite cold is still 50-60 dollar below it's previous high set at 1303.

those who like the overbought camp and even think gold will complete give back the run last week could short it at this level.

however I do caution one needs to place stops because technically if gdx breaks above the previous high at 25.85 and even 26.17, this will open up gdx to 35-40 area. Serious stuff folks.

on the down side if gdx does turn back down. support is at 23.56 as well as the gap under 24 that potentially needs to be filled.

right now I am going to believe the move is bullish and the low is in for gold so long the supports I mention hold.

http://i.imgur.com/W8pM5vt.png

[bjstare]

Set a stop loss on YRI this am for $6.18, triggered within seconds of setting it haha. I'm happy with my return on that trade, looking more at silver now unless something definitive happens with gold.

[SilverRex]

Meg.

price shot up at the open but still being held down by the same down trendline that has been holding price down for the last 1.5 month.

I expect if oil breaks above 50 and sustains it for a few days, Meg will also breakout and min target will be 6.80-7.00

but one has to wonder, if Meg has corrected for so long, the breakout may be stronger than most believe. does this mean we may finally see 8-10 dollar Meg?

however if oil fails to break above 50 and actually (from my oil chart this morning) breaks below 48 and begins a larger degree correction (remember it has not corrected 38%) this may bring MEg down to the previous low at 5.21 or even slightly lower

http://i.imgur.com/UBxqjle.png

[SilverRex]

My own strategy, will hold my miners. Since it took me so long to get back into this sector. I do not like the feeling of being naked and not having any position.

Gold is in a correction. And if gold does drop lower (below 1200) I will double up on my core positions.

if gold decides to breakout now, then I have some skin in the game.

P.S Sil.v made a nice pop this morning. took profits. 41.6% profit :P ive noticed the trend on this is every time it coils up into a pop, it would correct back down to the 50day moving average (on my 1 and 3 month chart) before it coils up for another run. will try to trade this pattern

[bspot]

Why is every miner I just dumped green today, yet HGU is down? :banghead:

My strategy of using HGU to prevent me from getting priced out if miners hold up is failing me hard.

[Vanish3d]

COME ON MINERS CRASH!
I would love to see the gap filled. I have a decent position in DUST at an average of 11.88.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
COME ON MINERS CRASH!
I would love to see the gap filled. I have a decent position in DUST at an average of 11.88.

we have Yellen's speech coming up which will move gold one way or the other. Either she confirms the hawkish rate hike this month or delays it because of the weak payroll.

[SilverRex]

gdx jast just poked slightly lower low and completely reversed. if it breaks a new high for the day, watch out. classic abc correction if it follows thru with a new high breakout

[SilverRex]

Yellen's speech I think remains hawkish and trying to disregard a 1 month bad report. so gold is now struggling.

however if price action does not crash it and it holds up well then that could be another sign people are buying into weakness....

[bball2]

Small purchase in LABD, will see how how it goes rest of the day

[SilverRex]

despite a gold negative Yellen speech, gold remains strong. watch out if it breaks and holds above 1247.8

getting back into Sil.v slightly lower entry for another run possibility.

oil looking good. Meg looking good.

Life is great on a Monday :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

Do we have a real breakout on Meg?

I still have a couple of small position hanging around for this finale.

if breakout is real, even if this is a giant correction with lower lows to come, I expect min target to hit retest 6.8-7.00 will set my target there.

http://i.imgur.com/KErNxuc.png

[ickyflex]

Go BTE & MEG Go haha

[bspot]

I'm still sitting on a large chunk of MEG. If we get back to the 6.8-7 range I will be a very happy camper.

I'm hoping the stars align, we get weak supply numbers again, and some news on the Access Pipeline.

[bball2]

Sold my RIG Jan 20, 17 $12 calls for a 60% profit today (held for about a month) :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

so it does appear Meg's breakout is real. next hurdle is to be able to close above the 50 day over 6.37 then its 6.80 follow by 7.5

if Meg cannot over come 6.37 on first pass, it may want to test the trendline break, but I think it is safe to say as long as oil continues to hold above 48, Meg should finally get it's day to retest 7.5

the rising channel support was perfect in forcing the upside breakout this week. The question will be can it break above 7.5 and head towards the upper channel of 10-12 dollars. I recall someone posted for valuation on Meg to hit 12-13 dollars it needs oil to be at around 70 dollars.

So if oil can get into the 55-60 area, I Think people will run Meg up as if it is projecting 70.00 oil.

If there are anyone left holding Meg at that point, then grads to you. that will be a great profit taking area. I dont think I will hold Meg beyond 7.5 considering my focus in back into the mining sector

http://i.imgur.com/r8ik3BL.png

[bspot]

^ This was posted on stockhouse:

PER FLOWING BARREL ENTERPRISE VALUE VALUE PER SHARE
50,000 6,300,000,000 6.666666667
55,000 6,710,000,000 8.488888889
60,000 7,120,000,000 10.31111111
65,000 7,530,000,000 12.13333333
70,000 7,940,000,000 13.95555556

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
^ This was posted on stockhouse:

PER FLOWING BARREL ENTERPRISE VALUE VALUE PER SHARE
50,000 6,300,000,000 6.666666667
55,000 6,710,000,000 8.488888889
60,000 7,120,000,000 10.31111111
65,000 7,530,000,000 12.13333333
70,000 7,940,000,000 13.95555556

nice because as long as oil holds above 48 I am looking into 55 which could cause Meg to break new high. I doubt oil can just keeps grinding higher at the current rate, there will be a profit taking event and oil can begin a larger degree correction 7-10 dollars. when this happens it will be another buy low and sell high.

[sabad66]

Originally posted by bspot
^ This was posted on stockhouse:

PER FLOWING BARREL ENTERPRISE VALUE VALUE PER SHARE
50,000 6,300,000,000 6.666666667
55,000 6,710,000,000 8.488888889
60,000 7,120,000,000 10.31111111
65,000 7,530,000,000 12.13333333
70,000 7,940,000,000 13.95555556
What was the most recent public announcement of how much oil they are producing?

[bspot]

76K bpd in the 1st quarter, targeting 80-83k bpd for the year.

[sabad66]

hmm, so they think it's trading at half of it's true value? that's stockhouse guys for you lol

although i'd love for it to be true... currently holding some MEG.

[meeiu]

Anybody see Primero Mining Corp's $45 million bought deal? Just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on it.

[bspot]

Originally posted by sabad66
hmm, so they think it's trading at half of it's true value? that's stockhouse guys for you lol

although i'd love for it to be true... currently holding some MEG.

The screwed up formatting of that chart may be misleading.

The first column is "Price per flowing barrel". The calculations shown to get enterprise value are not shown. Things like margin/reserves etc are baked in there. You can't just multiple a factor by production to get company value.

[SilverRex]

a bit of a normal correction finally taken place for gold. so far price has already produced a reversal candle on the hourly which can end the correctional wave iv here for a wave V move to come.

however if it does head down further, I suspect 1231 will be a very good place for the next bounce considering it 38% retracement and the 200 EMA.

I am still going to count the latest pop in gold as an impulsive move off the low just under 1200 and unless place invalidates the count by diving below 1220, I will continue to hold my miners.

oil is holding above 50.00 that should gave Meg some strength this morning. looking at Meg at a couple of important resistance which can be used as targets starting with 6.46 and 6.80. looks like it will gap up above 6.37 which is another breakout above the moving averages.

sold half of my Meg will see if I can hold the rest for 7+

[bball2]

Originally posted by bball2
Small purchase in LABD, will see how how it goes rest of the day
Sold for a quick 6% profit :thumbsup:

[bjstare]

Wahh sold my POU near open today for a tidy 5% profit. Only to watch it spike (continuing to do so). :rofl: :cry:

[bspot]

^Impressive. LABU/LABD have been all over the map. Curious if it will stay largely sideways for the near term and all these gap up and gap downs get filled and make for good opportunities.

Sold a bunch of MEG at 6.69, still holding a good chunk.

[sabad66]

Debating on selling my MEG position as well. Got in at 5.80ish so this would be pretty good gain for only 2 weeks. Might do the same as SilverRex and keep half in case it goes to 7+

[SilverRex]

I wonder if gold and silver can breakout this week. silver over 16.55 and gold 1251 that will work wonders with the miners if it does ;)

[ickyflex]

Go MEG!

[Vanish3d]

Yes, GO MEG GO

I just wish I had a bigger position. But oh well, I'll take a small gain over a big loss any day.
I'll set a stop at 6.9 and see what happens.

[ercchry]

Just dumped wcp and meg... 68% on my contracts is good enough for this run

[Vanish3d]

picked up some LABD. Hoping for a 10%

[SilverRex]

dumped rest of my Meg above 7, good luck to those who still wants to hold for higher.. switching to miners added a position with stop :nut:

so long oil keeps grinding above 50.00 and making new multi month highs. Meg should continue to move higher amid with minor corrections.

next resistance/target 7.35, 7.50 and 7.80

right now oil has broken out and as long as it remains above 50, next up will be 51.39 follow by 53 which is near the upper channel.

[SilverRex]

here is my bullish gold count

the reversal hammer this morning was indeed wave C completing wave iv. wave v of III now under way imo

http://i.imgur.com/1C448WR.png

looking at GDXJ (junior miners)

if this is what I think is forming a 3-3-3 ABC correction. then a breakout above 38.40 will be another move higher possibly breaking out the previous high.

let see if miners can gap up tomorrow morning like what the energy stocks did today

http://i.imgur.com/aN11HEJ.png

[littledan]

closed a small position in BTE @8.19 today. Got in at 4.75 so that was the first time I've seen green on my closed P&L in a long time LOL

[riander5]

Im in JNUG hoping for gold to continue its way up. On sidelines for all these oil gains. Its killing me!

When is the pullback going to happen?!?! argg

[el_fefes]

Finally out of MEG too... now to find the next thing... may buy a small position in miners and have some cash on the sidelines. If the fed announces a rate hike it may create another good entry point for gold/silver...

[SilverRex]

Gold and silver broke out above 1251 and 16.55 which now formed a weekly swing and had triggered technical buying in. While there can always be false breakout but as I have posted in my counts the low in gold has been struck and silver under 16 was a great bargain now we will see if we can ride the next up move.

Let's see if miners can break the 52 week high and chomp higher. Bullish target for gdx is 35-50 if it breaks out that's another 50-60% on big caps and possibly 75-100% on juniors from current levels

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Gold and silver broke out above 1251 and 16.55 which now formed a weekly swing and had triggered technical buying in. While there can always be false breakout but as I have posted in my counts the low in gold has been struck and silver under 16 was a great bargain now we will see if we can ride the next up move.

Let's see if miners can break the 52 week high and chomp higher. Bullish target for gdx is 35-50 if it breaks out that's another 50-60% on big caps and possibly 75-100% on juniors from current levels

Which junior miners do you follow again? Yri.... And what else ?

[bball2]

Still holding USLV right now :clap:

[bspot]

MEEEEEG!!!!!!

I'm out now. Had bought back a bunch of my miners yesterday too.

This was basically the greenest morning ever.

[bball2]

Originally posted by ercchry
I'm still in tbe... Averaged down to $0.14... Original position was like $1.20 or something :rofl:

Still holding? Down close to 50% this morning after an extension denial

[ercchry]

Yup... Sold off some at $0.10 thankfully

[BavarianBeast]

Took a major position in Veresen today.

:devil:

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by bball2


Still holding? Down close to 50% this morning after an extension denial

Just bought a small position at 0.05. Let's see some quick bounce today

[bspot]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Took a major position in Veresen today.

:devil:

Any more details? Wondering if I play along with fun money or serious money ;)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5


Which junior miners do you follow again? Yri.... And what else ?

currently 75% of my entire portfolio is in yri.to and k.to

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by bspot


Any more details? Wondering if I play along with fun money or serious money ;)

Wondering the same. Ratings don't look great, but they are clearly on a climb up.

[SilverRex]

Meg.to has hit the 200day moving average at 7.86, and considering how many times it was rejected in the high 7s. Meg can turn around here for a breather.

previous wave 3/4 range is down in the 7.00. I may play Meg again with a small position if it can go back to 7.00 or slightly below this and also to fill the gap left up this morning. the previous top at 6.8 will also provide a good backup support making the 6.8-7.00 area a good re-entry (imo)

[Red@8]

Im still in TBE as well ~$0.16 UGH

[SilverRex]

after two gap ups for gdx I think it is overbought. while technically it has broken above some very key levels. miners aka gdx made a higher high, gold/silver was able to break above the all important 16.55 and 1251.

I now expect our first set of 5 waves coming to a close with the possibility that we will see a counter trend correction in an ABC format that should fill the gap left this morning and get back into the previous wave iii/iv range. Ideally I would like to see gdx retest and slightly break below 25 (24.75 is the sweet spot and 38% fib)

I have sold off 25% of my position in miners to lock in profit. will leave the rest as old turkey until Gdx hits some where in the 35-45. until then I will use my other 25-50% to try and ride the bottoms and sell the tops

http://i.imgur.com/nERla8x.png

[SilverRex]

this is too funny.

I have been looking at the 51.39 oil as a resistance (picked up some hou.to late yesterday to see if it will hit that) sold this morning after it hits it.

and now oil is coming down.

I wish day trading was this easy every single time.

Meg is coming down...

if oil remains bullish, then the obvious support now lies at 50.00) Might jump in for a quick play

[troyl]

Tried to short MEG yesterday at 6.80, was forced to cover at 7.17. I want to re-enter on the short side, but got hurt yesterday :banghead:

[SilverRex]

lets look at the energy complex.

a couple of weeks ago I had counted that we should have another 5 waves up to a higher high (above wave III)

so far it has been bang on. It was the very reason that I continued to hold Meg knowing both oil and energy stocks still had a higher high to go.

Well now that we have had a higher high it will be approaching the completion of the wave v of V soon possibly topping some time this month. Once we get a completion. I will expect the energy sector to begin a multi-week, maybe even multi month pull back.

Oil will also be in a similar situation. it could top at the 51 oil now or 53 or 55 who knows. But once it tops out, it will produce a larger degree correction 7-10 dollars. imo so I suggest if you are sitting on some gains to at least lock in some profits in the coming days/weeks and prepare to re-enter the market

http://i.imgur.com/xFo29C6.png

[SilverRex]

While I am expecting the general energy complex to top soon follow by a stronger correction. Certain stocks like Meg. count looks bullish imo. This may explain why when energy stocks was stepping higher yet Meg continues to fall bac in late April/early May. Individually not all stocks follow the same pattern.

So I have two possible counts on Meg.

one is a very bullish outlook since the latest move is aggressive and impulsive and also gaps up multiple times which is a hallmark of wave III moves. as long as price does not close below previous wave I at 6.82, my guess is price may continue to push higher into the upper trend channel which is in the 10-12 area.

Obvious oil will also have to keep pushing higher into 55+

the bearish count in red is also a possibility (if oil tops out 51-53 and begins a multi week correction.

Meg could be in some sort of flat correction which started back in middle of april but initially selling off on wave (A), then we have our counter trend rally and the 3 wave structures from 5.21-6.82 supports this notion) once wave (B) tops out. we should see price slowly take out 6.82, follow by the rising channel. It should in my opinion come down to test if not break below 5.21.

then the real wave III to 10+ dollar would begin after the summer.

http://i.imgur.com/5s0KYKp.png

[SilverRex]

Well another interesting day at hand.

oil as I have mention has a hidden pivot/resistance at 51.39 I have been saying this could have been a good place to short. And so far price has been rejected in this area and is coming down pretty fast.

However the important test will be this week to see how oil reacts with the coming support.

the biggest one is the 200 EMA as well as the previous trendline breakout. a backtest just under 50 would be ideal.

however this is a thin line in the sand. below would begin to scare everyone thinking 51 is the top for oil.

another reason to keep in mind is that the rise from 26-42 is 16 and many are calling the 2nd rise from 35-51=16 which is a perfect target for price to begin a intermediate correction of 7-10 dollars.

that is why caution and try not to over expose yourself.

for the time being I will try to hold on the idea that oil still has higher prices to go 53-56. but price will first have to hold it's ground above 49.5ish. otherwise bullish bets will be off the table

as for Meg. was expecting a turn around at 7.86, did not realize it was drop so quick but I guess we've seen this happen many times. 6.8-7.00 is a good re-entry zone if Meg is to make another dash attempt for higher highs. otherwise it may signal the red path I talked about yesterday


http://i.imgur.com/V0FlSZZ.png

[SilverRex]

Gold is very strong despite US dollar gaining strength today. Gold could still make another small 5 wave run above 1266 before moving into a larger degree correction.

added back my 3rd miner position with tight stop.

Also added Meg at 7.06 right at open to see where lady luck is today.

[bball2]

Sitting on the sidelines a bit for good buying opportunities. Holding 50% cash, and the rest in apple / netflix / under armour.

[SilverRex]

gold is currently battling the 1264 area considering this is the last defense for shorts as it is the 61% retracement of the entire gold down move from 1303 to 1199. hence if price closes and sustains above this, it may force alot of short covering imo.

I will see how the day unfolds. if I am wrong and gold/silver gets rejected and heads lower, well I will gladly take my stop loss and try to enter at a lower price

despite gold breaking out and made higher than yesterday. miners are struggling and could be a sign that it still wants to head down aka gdx down to the 25 area to close the gap.

I say if it breaks the low that was set today, this is the most likely outcome and so too I will exit my 3rd miner position

as long as the low today isnt broken I will continue to hold

[SilverRex]

Meg just did a abc wave ii correction under 7.15 so potentially it may be ready to pop a wave iii up move.

if Meg can get back above 7.54 then I suspect we may see a higher high over 7.87

[SilverRex]

you know something is up when gold is moving up along side the US dollar.

many were expecting dollar to gain massive strength (which suppose to bring gold down under 1200 for the big correction) ahead of the Brexit vote. yet gold and dollar is moving up together today. and if dollar drops, gold moves up more.

I suspect Brexit would or has the chance to destabilize the currency market so funds are pouring into the yellow metal. so best position to hold is in the gold/silver sector for the coming months.

[SilverRex]

if gdx closes the week above 25 which is around the weekly 200day moving average. this will be another bullish signal on the higher level that much higher prices are coming. anything is possible at this point. my own wishful thinking is once we can get above this threshold, this may be the support in the coming years.

Imagine months from now we never see current prices in the mining sector. I am bias and bullish in this sector. yes I know :nut:

[KappaSigma]

Hopefully there is an oil pullback or at least on oil stocks in general. Sold my Baytex position yesterday, made a nice ~$65K profit.

[BavarianBeast]

Did you buy $1m worth and only make 6.5%?

Nobody cares about the $ value if your gonna toot your own horn, tell us the percentage gain.

[riander5]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Hopefully there is an oil pullback or at least on oil stocks in general. Sold my Baytex position yesterday, made a nice ~$65K profit.

Nice work, usually more value in an investment thread to post picks before you make them then to just celebrate your wins after the fact

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Did you buy $1m worth and only make 6.5%?

Nobody cares about the $ value if your gonna toot your own horn, tell us the percentage gain.

I thought I had a decent bottom, bought late 2015 at $5.69. Sold at ~$8.72, so in the 50% range.

I swung for the fence, have no mortgage so I dropped $130K into Baytex thinking this is a once in a life time trade in oil. If I would have waited till February when market was in full panic mode, I would have made a few hundred thousand more.

[oster]

TBE seems too cheap to not buy now.

Is there a possibility of a buy out?

[BavarianBeast]

Nice work, that's a risky play!

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by oster
TBE seems too cheap to not buy now.

Is there a possibility of a buy out?

Very cheap but could easily go CCAA. Word on the street is that the banks are now willing to push companies into receivership to liquidate assets as they can get better value at $50 oil versus 6 months ago at $35-40 on liquidation prices.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
Still holding USLV right now :clap:

that is a nice one to hold. especially next target for silver is in the 22-23 range. that is a double on uslv and a gap to be filled at about 28-30

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Nice work, that's a risky play!

Not really. At a high level, debt of $2B is termed out to say 2020.

On a current transactional metric:

Say corporate production 70k boe/d x $55K per flowing barrel (which is too low due to US acreage) = $3.85B, take off debt and down to $1.85B

~210MM shares outstanding = ~$8.80 per share.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


Not really. At a high level, debt of $2B is termed out to say 2020.

On a current transactional metric:

Say corporate production 70k boe/d x $55K per flowing barrel (which is too low due to US acreage) = $3.85B, take off debt and down to $1.85B

~210MM shares outstanding = ~$8.80 per share.

someone knows what he is doing dam.

wish I have 130k to dump into gold back in October last year. My own investment money was pathetic.

[el_fefes]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


I thought I had a decent bottom, bought late 2015 at $5.69. Sold at ~$8.72, so in the 50% range.

I swung for the fence, have no mortgage so I dropped $130K into Baytex thinking this is a once in a life time trade in oil. If I would have waited till February when market was in full panic mode, I would have made a few hundred thousand more.

How did you feel in February when things were at bottom? :eek:

[Vanish3d]

I'm betting on miners to gap down tomorrow. Just got into DUST at 9.63

[riander5]

Had some buddies who got their bonuses this year exactly when BTE bottomed. They were feeling risky and bought within cents of its bottom. They are sitting pretty now (Although I dont think they've made over 50k)

Better than my yearly return so far of a couple grand.... due to some poor options call that lost me 10k in feb :cry:

[SilverRex]

according to EW, if the wave (2) correction is completed and this is wave 3, then price will be very powerful. meaning it will just keeps pushing higher without much of a correction.

at best I see price potentially move down to fill the gap near 25 for a wave ii abc. but a bullish case would be similar to January. it could pause a few days then pop again, then rinse and repeat

http://i.imgur.com/v2dFeyP.png

here is a good read to make things interesting for the next couple of weeks

" Looking specifically at silver, we have a true potential atomic bomb in the works for July. COMEX claims to have 22,482,000 ounces registered and available for deliver. This number is an ALL TIME low for "registered" ounces. To put this number in perspective, it is less than $400 million dollars and only about 10 days of global production. Also in perspective, customers have already withdrawn 12,244,000 ounces of silver in just the first 8 days of June! Finally, the real shocker is the July contract. First, the open interest for July of over 107,000 contracts is more than 50% of the entire open interest. This represents over 536 MILLION OUNCES! Do you realize this amounts to over 60% of total global production on just one bourse and in just one single month? Obviously there will not still be 536 million ounces standing for delivery by July 1st, but as it stands now there are contracts open to deliver 24 ounces for every 1 ounce registered for delivery.

So, is a delivery default here and now in June or July? I am sure I will hear "they will never default, they will cash settle". "Cash settlement" IS default, please do not delude yourself into thinking it isn't. If you believe cash settlement is OK, what will you think AFTERWARDS when your cash will not buy metal? There is no way to tell if it is here and now but it certainly looks possible. Something has definitely changed. The longs of the past who would stand on first notice day only to mysteriously disappear during the delivery period seem to have changed or ...are now different entities. It is clear by looking at past deliveries and current inventories that COMEX is not meant to be a major delivery hub. It has been "used" to "price" gold even though very little real metal changed hands. I believe this is about to change as actual gold being traded will become the pricing mechanism. The about face in the price action over the last six months and now the amounts standing tell you something very big is afoot. We already know that physical metal has been moving from West to East for years. I believe we are about to find out the pricing mechanism itself is being moved from West to East. Stay tuned!"

[riander5]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I'm betting on miners to gap down tomorrow. Just got into DUST at 9.63

Gold certainly looks ready to correct a little bit. OB on daily and hourly...

I might give it one or two days and see what happens... once a reversal is signaled on daily i might jump in on some dust

[FlamingC19]

Any thoughts on Concordia Healthcare Corp. (CXR).

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Lots of text

My 5 minutes of research show me that a delivery default will usher in a much higher price for silver.

http://www.silver-coin-investor.com/Silver-Prices-in-the-Event-of-a-Comex-Default.html

Everyone who trades silver ETF's what would happen? Trade halt and a massive gain?

Maybe trading silver companies or miners is the better play? hmm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5


My 5 minutes of research show me that a delivery default will usher in a much higher price for silver.

http://www.silver-coin-investor.com/Silver-Prices-in-the-Event-of-a-Comex-Default.html

Everyone who trades silver ETF's what would happen? Trade halt and a massive gain?

Maybe trading silver companies or miners is the better play? hmm

no idea what would happen as that will be the first. but since I dont own any ETF at the moment, I guess I dont have to worry too much.

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex


no idea what would happen as that will be the first. but since I dont own any ETF at the moment, I guess I dont have to worry too much.

Im counting on you to know the answers to those types of questions haha