Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5


Im counting on you to know the answers to those types of questions haha your giving me too much credit. I am no financial wiz

[SilverRex]

one more chart to tease everyone.

1436 is a key technical level that would put a nail in the coffin that the bear market is over on the higher level.

guess what.

the recent rise from 1046-1283 = 237 dollars.

if the wave II correction did end at 1199. Then 1199 + another 237 = guess what. exactly 1436 to the dot. Coincident?

My own experience I always believe in wave III has to be equal or greater than wave 1. a perfect rise to 1436 will be my wave 3 target for the coming months. Stay tune.

http://i.imgur.com/VuJEksn.png

[oster]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


Very cheap but could easily go CCAA. Word on the street is that the banks are now willing to push companies into receivership to liquidate assets as they can get better value at $50 oil versus 6 months ago at $35-40 on liquidation prices.

Yup, waiting for the news haha. Bought a small position right before close, we'll see.

[oster]

For anyone else following here is the news release:

http://ir.twinbutteenergy.com/2016-06-09-Twin-Butte-Announces-Extension-of-Credit-Facilities

Credit is extended to June 21

So Im guessing CCAA isnt on the table?

[ercchry]

A bounce back to $0.10 would make me pretty happy... Doubled up my position at $0.05

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by el_fefes


How did you feel in February when things were at bottom? :eek:

Truthfully i wasnt worried. My house is paid off and im 33. I went into it on the basis that if i lost it all i would have a managble mortgage afterwards as i used a loc on my house to purchase.

[SilverRex]

From my previous oil chart price has finally dropped and tested the 49.75 area. This area needs to hold or risk a larger fallout even though overall oil remains bullish with next upside target to 55 as long as we remain above 48

As for gold ive veen waiting for a wave 2 correction and if gold dives below 1257 then this correction will have begun otherwise the longer it stays above it the chance the current wave isnt finished. Although on a macro level gold looks corrective so far

after gold breaking yesterdays high and wave V isnt finished. next target is 1280-1283

[bball2]

Originally posted by ercchry
A bounce back to $0.10 would make me pretty happy... Doubled up my position at $0.05
Nice double up! :thumbsup:

Looking for re-entry into Crescent Point and MEG depending on the price levels today.

[Vanish3d]

go TBE. Just wish I had the balls to put a bigger position at 0.05

[SilverRex]

as I have said. oil has finally hit the previous break out line, the 200 EMA as well as a 50% retrace level. there is so many support just under 50 here.

I expect oil to hold and back up we go.

and Meg was a good buy between 6.8-7.00, we are there now as well.

http://i.imgur.com/8RBNJrd.png

[bjstare]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


Truthfully i wasnt worried. My house is paid off and im 33. I went into it on the basis that if i lost it all i would have a managble mortgage afterwards as i used a loc on my house to purchase.

Lol bullshit. You gambled with 130k of borrowed money, and you weren't worried when the market took a huge dive?

Were you eating Xanax for breakfast every day or something? :rofl:

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by cjblair
Were you eating Xanax for breakfast every day or something? :rofl:

:rofl:

The Xanxabar will do wonders!

[SilverRex]

nothing has changed for the outlook on gold. even if you go back to the gold chart I posted back at the start of May, I was quite impressed and feel very lucky lately that prices has been kind and moving to my own expectations. I thought gold had a chance to at least test 1180-1191. but it only tested 1199. so it was pretty darn close for the wave C(II) bottom

using gld fund for my counts today.

as you can see our major wave I took about 3 months, follow by a flat ABC side way correction of 2.5 months. now gold is ready to run for another 3 months which will not top until some time in August/September time frame.

shorting will be dangerous because in a bull market (especially in a wave III) it can kill you. so I only trade long and try to buy on dips.

wave I of 3 should be nearing an end soon. once we get our wave II correction, wave III will be a sight to behold

http://i.imgur.com/brsRrLr.png

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by cjblair


Lol bullshit. You gambled with 130k of borrowed money, and you weren't worried when the market took a huge dive?

Were you eating Xanax for breakfast every day or something? :rofl:

Nope like I said, I was perfectly fine risking it all and having a $130K "mortgage again" but at least tax deductible. The chances of it going to zero were very low plus having no debt I knew that during any downturns I would not have to be forced to sell as I have decent liquidity to weather the storm.


BTW, if the markets pull back a bit more I might dump most of it all back into Baytex again and look for another 5-20% swing.

[SilverRex]

miners feels a bit weak this morning, despite grinding higher, it's dropping faster when gold weakens... wave 2 correction may be under way

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
miners feels a bit weak this morning, despite grinding higher, it's dropping faster when gold weakens... wave 2 correction may be under way

I really hope so ! bought DUST yesterday and averaged down today... so far so good. I would looooveeee $11-12 dust today

[SilverRex]

I have took some profit off the table with my range trading position.

will see if miners can dip down a bit further with gdx to 25 or slightly under would be the perfect setup

and for gold the 1251 and silver at 16.55 would be good

[Kloubek]

For anyone considering Baytex, where do you put your buy-in price? As I type this, it has dropped exactly 10% today. Very volatile.

With that said, I guess investing in any oil company really depends on who's right. Some "experts" are saying we're going to see a steady recovery of oil, yet others are saying there is no realistic reason it even should have hit $50, and that it could go down to around $20.

[SilverRex]

ok trying to be as macro as I can.

forget about gold for a moment.

looking at the miners. I see three scenario unfolding.

the typical expectation right now is an ABC wave II correction in orange down to the 25 area then we begin wave III as early as next week.

however if the correction is steeper and more severe and gold begins a bigger sell off next week, then miners in the red path could moving down even further which will be god's gift for those who missed the bottom.

However, here is what is interesting..a bullish case remains on the table that what if miners already put in a wave I top back on the 8th and has already been in a wave II ABC correction for over 2 days. This is very similar to what gold did when it produced a wave B that took price higher (fooling everyone) because everyone may be expecting a 3 wave down that potentially (may never come) and continue to force the average investor chasing the market.

so keep this in mind. Obviously if miners can close above 25 to end the week, it will be quite bullish on the weekly chart and will draw alot of technical buying starting next week imo

http://i.imgur.com/MCC2MN1.png

[bball2]

Originally posted by Kloubek
For anyone considering Baytex, where do you put your buy-in price? As I type this, it has dropped exactly 10% today. Very volatile.

With that said, I guess investing in any oil company really depends on who's right. Some "experts" are saying we're going to see a steady recovery of oil, yet others are saying there is no realistic reason it even should have hit $50, and that it could go down to around $20.
I just put in a limit order at 7.7, will see if it fills, dipped down to 7.64 just a few mins ago.

[SilverRex]

oil is still having a difficult time gaining any momentum. if it cannot re-claim above 49.75 by the end of the day, then oil will be turning bearish with further downside next week.

while I do have a very small MEg position, I may exit and not play the energy sector and simply just be focusing on gold/silver instead.

oil testing the 49.28 is already the 61% level of the recent rally from 48-51 so if this cannot hold, shorts will overrun it further.

[Kloubek]

Just put in a limit order at 7.60.

Looking at oil traditionally, it always recovers eventually. As long as Baytex doesn't go bankrupt (and it looks like they can sustain life for quite a while longer in the downturn) it just HAS to jump back up over time, even if there are short term pains.

[riander5]

Originally posted by Kloubek
For anyone considering Baytex, where do you put your buy-in price? As I type this, it has dropped exactly 10% today. Very volatile.

With that said, I guess investing in any oil company really depends on who's right. Some "experts" are saying we're going to see a steady recovery of oil, yet others are saying there is no realistic reason it even should have hit $50, and that it could go down to around $20.

World was 2% oversupplied and price dropped 70%... so that was probably an over reaction.

But now world is still oversupplied and price has doubled (roughly)

Has the price ever actually reflected oils value over the last two years? who knows

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil is still having a difficult time gaining any momentum. if it cannot re-claim above 49.75 by the end of the day, then oil will be turning bearish with further downside next week.

while I do have a very small MEg position, I may exit and not play the energy sector and simply just be focusing on gold/silver instead.

oil testing the 49.28 is already the 61% level of the recent rally from 48-51 so if this cannot hold, shorts will overrun it further.

I think oils got another day or two to drop. Based on peak to peak or trough to trough analysis is usually goes 7-10 days between. Also another two days would line up well with an OS indicator on Stoich RSI.

I missed the Baytex boat last time cause i wanted a correction to 43 instead of 45 or w/e.... might start accumulating baytex monday / tuesday

[SilverRex]

sold my Meg at 7.01 today, actually until I see oil recapture 49.75 or show some strong moves. I am not touching oil anymore as this is a chance this correction could turn into a medium term degree. Not sure if Meg will be able to withstand a 10-15% drop in oil price. so I will stand pat. The movement reminds me of when xbi was very bullish and broke out of a consolidation triangle only to have price close below it and we saw what happen after.



as for my gold positions
instead of throwing down 20% of my funds for every miner position I enter. I am now going to use 7% instead and pick up Jnug 3x ETF. which really is the same as a 20% exposure per position. this way I will have more cash to play with. I will continue to hold my two core miners which makes up about 40% of my portfolio for the next 2-3 months

[ickyflex]

What a shit show today

[bjstare]

^Indeed.

Anyone have any thoughts as to YRI is having so much pullback when gold price is steady/gaining?

[el_fefes]

Several miners seem to be on the same boat.

https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1465589212859&chddm=1173&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=TSE:YRI;TSE:K&cmptdms=0;0&q=TSE:FR&ntsp=1&ei=2x1bV8neLKuUigLKj6qQCQ

[SilverRex]

gold never broke below 1267 to technically begin wave 2. so with that said, there is a good chance the 5th wave is still in progress and the drop today was merely a small wave 2 of the final 5th wave up. which could target 1280-1300 early next week.

Miners often lead gold, so the drop today could signal gold's wave 2 next week. Which means miners could finish it's correction ahead of gold as well. so by the time gold does move into wave 2 miners will out perform and stay strong.

some times looking at the charts every minute drives my head crazy. In short we all should sit extremely well in a couple of weeks time. until then, everything is just noise.

have a good weekend all ;)

[SilverRex]

Got some time this morning.

lets look at oil once more.

as you can see, there was plenty of support for oil to bounce off 49.75 however it didnt and now it broken down below the previous breakout line as well as the rising channel that has been supporting oil for weeks.

With this breach oil has moved into a correctional period. Of course oil will regain bullish bets if it can get back above 50 until then any rise towards 50 should be viewed as corrective and counter trend and I expect lower oil prices in the coming days/week. (this break down reminds me to how biotech back in 3rd week of April and we saw how bearish that became)

The question now is, is this a mild correction or a intermediate degree like what we saw when oil corrected from 42-35?

Right now the min downside target I expect is between the 47-48 area with next daily support near 46 (50 day moving average)

Let just see how price reacts if and when oil hits those level.

http://i.imgur.com/2nvIyAN.png

A quick update on my count for oil. Oil isnt very clear and so count could change very quickly depending on how price moves.

but for the time being I am still expecting a mild correction down to the 46-47 area would be ideal and see oil push towards a final 5th of (III).

of course the alt path is orange where we have already completed our wave (III) and a steeper wave (IV) correction has begun taking price down possibly to 42-45.

You can ignore the red path. as I do not see this happening and it just gives me some technical heads up if the entire rise this year is still part of a counter trend rally and lower lows ahead. The probability is low and anything is possible when everything today is driven by emotions, politics and fear.

http://i.imgur.com/kMHQZ3v.png

[SilverRex]

an updated comparison based on previous two bull run beginnings.

This is a chart on junior mining companies. as you can see, the recent correction was quite mild in comparison to the previous bull market. One has to think perhaps we have enter a phase where there are so much investor and money participating, correction will continue to be mild during this new bull market.

. however both EW and cycles have lined up that we need to hold this sector for the next 2+ months. Next intermediate correction will be some time Aug/Sept

http://i.imgur.com/iVjkdgb.png

a quick list for funds/vehicles for this sector

(CAD)
HGU gold miner 2x ETF
HZU silver prices 1x

(USD )
USLV silver price 3x ETF
SIL silver miners ETF
NUGT gold miners 3x ETF
JNUG Junior gold miners 3x ETF
GDX gold miners 1x ETF
GDXJ junior gold miners 1x ETF

does anyone know if there are leveraged silver mining companies ETFs out there?

[KappaSigma]

Hopefully the markets, mostly oil pulls back this week.

If so, I would like to re-enter Baytex ay $7.00

$70K @ $7 and will sell it if it hits $8.50.

Or if it keeps decreasing afterwards I plan on adding to the position as I think 6-12 months from now Baytex is higher then $7.

[Vanish3d]

Hey,

can some one help me with my question in here:

http://forums.beyond.ca/st/398980/tax-help-reporting-stock-gains-losses/

[SilverRex]

here is my very bullish silver count. potentially silver may have completed wave II last week and ready for a wave III power surge.

alt count suggest, flat correction could continue side way with one more possible low under 17.00

http://i.imgur.com/YgIdxCg.png

[bspot]

MEG hit $6.51 this morning!? Boy did I miss that boat.

[FlamingC19]

Thoughts on Lightstream Resources (LTS)? Up 25% this AM.

[bball2]

Penn West up almost 50% after selling a billion+ $ in assets in AB / SK

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ok trying to be as macro as I can.


http://i.imgur.com/MCC2MN1.png

as posted this last week, while miners looks like it wants to follow the orange path but it still is struggling to take out last friday's low. until it does, it could suddenly reverse. So if you have not already position yourself, dont bang on it dropping. Any further downside at this point is simply an added gift to increase one's position sizes.

[Vanish3d]

looks like GDX took out the previous bottom. Hoping to close the previous gap !

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
looks like GDX took out the previous bottom. Hoping to close the previous gap !

ideally would be to see gdx slightly dive under 25 but since it was able to break under last friday's low, now we wait for a swing low and see if there is any type of reversal.

gdx will remain down with target to and slightly under 25 but if it starts to reverse here and holds above 25.8 and sustain above this, then it may be the very first sign the wave II bottom being completed. a follow thru breakout to new 52 week high means wave 3 has started.

added two more Jnug positions

[bspot]

^Are you setting stops on those? If the 50 hour MA is lost is it time to worry about the gap filling?

(EDIT: Replying about JNUG)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
^Are you setting stops on those? If the 50 hour MA is lost is it time to worry about the gap filling?

(EDIT: Replying about JNUG)

depends on your strategy. right now there is obviously two huge gap in the miners no matter which fund you are looking at.

we are nearly able to fill the 1st gap, so im not concern even if it dives another 5%

This is what I am doing, 65% of my portfolio is heavy in two junior miners and 10% in the pink (sil.v) 14% is all I am holding in Jnug right now.

at this time I think the intermediate cycle low has been established so the the worse possible scenario is to see price fill the 2nd gap. If this happens. I will slowly convert my core miners in 20% increments into Jnug every 10-15% that it drops.

see what I am doing here? I am trying to maintain full exposure and any significant price drop will give me a chance to increase my leverage.

P.S those that was watching me would know that I took the plunge and entered heavily when gdx was hovering around 22. This certainly gave me more flexibility

[SilverRex]

possible miners abc wave II may be completed. I see some good reversal happening here

[bspot]

^Thanks for the write up, good tips.

I've been holding a position in miners I'm planning on keeping long term, and then about 25% I've been dipping in and out with leveraged etfs.

I really like your strategy for converting heavier to leveraged if prices drop, as I've found myself a couple times being way too far out in cash and exposed to missing big upward moves.

[FlamingC19]

Originally posted by SilverRex


depends on your strategy. right now there is obviously two huge gap in the miners no matter which fund you are looking at.

we are nearly able to fill the 1st gap, so im not concern even if it dives another 5%

This is what I am doing, 65% of my portfolio is heavy in two junior miners and 10% in the pink (sil.v) 14% is all I am holding in Jnug right now.

at this time I think the intermediate cycle low has been established so the the worse possible scenario is to see price fill the 2nd gap. If this happens. I will slowly convert my core miners in 20% increments into Jnug every 10-15% that it drops.

see what I am doing here? I am trying to maintain full exposure and any significant price drop will give me a chance to increase my leverage.

P.S those that was watching me would know that I took the plunge and entered heavily when gdx was hovering around 22. This certainly gave me more flexibility

Sorry, I know you posted in the past which two miners are you heavily weighted in?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by scotty_69


Sorry, I know you posted in the past which two miners are you heavily weighted in?

Yamana and Kinross

[SilverRex]

looks like oil was good for another counter trend bounce this morning.

gdx needs to get back above 26.4 to put away the low yesterday, otherwise the chance for the initial target under 25 remains on the table

[SilverRex]

regardless of what the Fed's does with the rate hike. I think the stock market will continue to show weakness until the Brexit vote. and once that is over, there should be a big monster relief rally.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex
regardless of what the Fed's does with the rate hike. I think the stock market will continue to show weakness until the Brexit vote. and once that is over, there should be a big monster relief rally.

Are you saying that regardless of the outcome of the vote, there will be a relief rally? I'm not sure I buy into that.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair


Are you saying that regardless of the outcome of the vote, there will be a relief rally? I'm not sure I buy into that.

i think the situation over there is overblown. its the unknow that scares people. in this case it is selling the rumor and buying the news.

i could be wrong, its my own opinion

[bspot]

Well, the gap filled on GDX. I was going to throw some more in, but it's still dropping like a rock. Hopefully this will be the end of wave II.

[bspot]

Biotech is getting crushed down pretty good again over the last week. If XBI can make it to the 51-52 area, it's going to look like another bloody nice setup.

[KappaSigma]

Come on oil market (especially Baytex) keep pulling back. Hopefully the Britian/Euro issue goes ahead and the market falls out, be a nice entry point. Sitting all cash.

[riander5]

Waiting on BTE entry point.

Also considering shorting gold in the near term

Wasnt paying much attention to biotech but bspot brings up a good point - will be watching XBI closely for if/when it reverses this little downtrend for a LABU play

edit : Actually kinda pissed at myself for not following XBI/LABU/LABD because I left big % on the table not getting into LABD the last few days :banghead:

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5

edit : Actually kinda pissed at myself for not following XBI/LABU/LABD because I left big % on the table not getting into LABD the last few days :banghead:

Yeah, I was out of town for the beginning of the down trend, and it sure would have been a nice ride down even if you only jumped in Thursday.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by riander5
Waiting on BTE entry point.

Also considering shorting gold in the near term

Wasnt paying much attention to biotech but bspot brings up a good point - will be watching XBI closely for if/when it reverses this little downtrend for a LABU play

edit : Actually kinda pissed at myself for not following XBI/LABU/LABD because I left big % on the table not getting into LABD the last few days :banghead:

What entry point on baytex are you hoping for? Im hoping for ~$6.50.

[SilverRex]

market should remain flat until tomorrow's rate hike announcement.

although I must admit some times news event could be what gold needs to reload sentiment.

I want to see gold get knocked down early and perhaps even like a mini-crash down to the 1250-1260 area and complete reversal off the 200 EMA.

gdx while just a hair off 25, I would also like to see price break and test below at 24.4-24.7

how price reacts around those area will be telling.

If this happens, then it would be the perfect setup for the next leg higher

[SilverRex]

the current EW count I am following in gdx. only question is if the wave ii bottom was today's 25.13 or will it hit the 50% fib level near 24 and tag the 50 day moving average one more time.

I am fully invested in this sector if it does tag the 24 area, I will start converting my core miners into leveraged etfs

also there is a chance if miners do breakout to new 52 week highs, we may still in a 5th wave (green count) price could runaway to 28+ only to correct back down to 25 for the wave II. which is another bull trap and pause before the real wave III run

http://i.imgur.com/Ac8tcmn.png

[riander5]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


What entry point on baytex are you hoping for? Im hoping for ~$6.50.

That would be the dream. Im less so looking for a baytex $ value to enter as I am watching crude oils chart and timing based off that. Im hoping crude can correct to 43-45 in the next little while but even that is aggressive.

If crude drops to 46 I will probably accumulate baytex in 5k intervals as low as crude goes (46-45-44-43... if it drops much lower than 43 then im out to lunch on where I think its headed)

[bball2]

Increased my position in Baytex @ 5.66 (on the US market)

[riander5]

Originally posted by bball2
Increased my position in Baytex @ 5.66 (on the US market)

Why US instead of CAD - Just had some US dollars in your account?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5


Why US instead of CAD - Just had some US dollars in your account?

USD should remain strong leading up to the Brexit vote.

[KappaSigma]

Well I got trigger happy and bought Baytex even though I said I would wait. Decided to by $25K tranches, first one at $7.25 and then will buy more tranches with ever 5% decrease (if it happens).

[ickyflex]

Oil dropping after hours here, I don't have access to API numbers anymore so I'm assuming it's that

[troyl]

Sure hope EIA shows differently tomorrow AM.

API
Crude Oil: +1.16 MMBbls on the week vs. consensus of -2.1 MMBbls. Cushing crude inventories built 0.66 MMBbls on the week.
Gasoline: +2.25 MMBbls on the week vs. consensus of -0.7 MMBbls.
Distillates: +3.73 MMBbls on the week vs. consensus of -0.1 MMBbls.
We view this as a negative for crude given the unexpected build in inventories. We also view the product build as negative for refiners.

[SilverRex]

just want to recap miners

after gdx ran up 5 waves from 22-27 (roughly) I was expecting a corrective wave down to the 25 area. In short, technically it has fulfilled it's requirement. However, until price fully reverses and begins to make new highs. there is always a chance that the correction could extend further down.

There for all I can say is, the buy zone (box area) between 23.8-25 is a very good area shall price head lower.

However, like all trades, there will always be key areas that needs to hold or it will mean the current rally was a head fake.

the Line in the sand right now is 23.8 in gdx. as long as this is not broken. it is safe to assume the next big move is up and anything now or lower should be a great buying opportunity.

http://i.imgur.com/tGcl9dV.png

[SilverRex]

as for the gold price. I took think it has completed 5 waves up off the low under 1199 which should be an intermediate cycle low. which means the next 2-3 months should lift gold into the 1400-1500 area.

however, after the 5 wave up, gold is still sitting quite high. which is a concern. technically I Want to see gold price correct into wave II low some where back in the 1250-1260 area. Perhaps the Fed rate news today may trigger a profit taking event and give us the correction.

if gold continues to pushing higher without much of a concern, then what that tells me is that the recent rise is most likely due to the fear of Brexit. And once Brexit is over, gold could crash harder. A scenario that I do not like too see. I rather see gold correct now, so that during Brexit, it could breakout in a strong wave III move upwards.

http://i.imgur.com/WqogHip.png

[SilverRex]

not much to say about oil. ever since I posted the chart showing how it has broken down from the previous breakout trendline, oil was nothing but bearish with price target down to the 46-47 area to start. Any rally would be viewed as counter trend and corrective.

however I cant but think it may give us a decent bounce back to 50? if inventory is positive.

on the side notes I do not have any MEG position. but given oil opening low today, MEG appears to be holding well in the 6.5 range. which tells me, it sellers are exhausted and there is a good chance it could bounce up for another short play.

[riander5]

Hmm what will gold do. Im holding a small position in DUST because regardless of Brexit / FOMC meeting the technicals are calling for a correction.

Guess we will see!

Sidenote - XBI / LABU looking like a good entry point

[bball2]

Originally posted by riander5


Why US instead of CAD - Just had some US dollars in your account?
Mostly because Baytex took a slightly larger dip on the US market at the time I bought (4.5% vs. 3.8%) so hoping for a larger recovery.

[SilverRex]

right now miners looks very corrective all morning.

here is something to think about. miners ever since it bottomed late last year and went on a big run all year long, it has never produced more than 3 red days.

so if the trend continues, and if the fed announcement causes a panic sell off (gdx under 25). I am going to guess it could still close green.

I want to see gold correct and miner do one more nose dive under yesterdays low then complete reversal.

[riander5]

I want to see gold correct too.. but the question is, what will FOMC do to it. No hike devalues USD and Gold should rise? And if Brexit doesnt happen then gold also goes up? I need to learn more about all these damn currency and economy tie ins with metals

[KappaSigma]

Sold Baytex. Made a quick $500 or 2%.

[bspot]

Gold shorts covering like crazy expecting no hike?

[bspot]

dumped JNUG at $176 (was $178 when I hit the button :banghead: ) and will wait for gold to correct.


Hoping to not have to quote this post in sadness later today when it blasts past this :rofl: Still have a solid position in individual miners.

Currently just not sitting on enough cash to be ready for oil/bio opportunities that look to be forming.

Edit: That didn't take long to feel dumb about selling so quick.

My chart feed is currently down so I'm basically blind anyway which is frustrating.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
dumped JNUG at $176 (was $178 when I hit the button :banghead: ) and will wait for gold to correct.


Hoping to not have to quote this post in sadness later today when it blasts past this :rofl: Still have a solid position in individual miners.

Currently just not sitting on enough cash to be ready for oil/bio opportunities that look to be forming.

Edit: That didn't take long to feel dumb about selling so quick.

My chart feed is currently down so I'm basically blind anyway which is frustrating.

gold is coming out of an intermediate cycle, its not a time to get cute. holding it for the next 2 months will be quite profitable

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex


gold is coming out of an intermediate cycle, its not a time to get cute. holding it for the next 2 months will be quite profitable

Well, you've called this pretty well so far, so I bought the dip, back in $2 higher lol.

So you're saying sitting with 30% of my portfolio in miners, and 30% of that in a 3x Jr Miner leveraged ETF isn't getting crazy?

[SilverRex]

i was hoping the Fed announcement would drive gold price down.

no matter miners was correcting and the wave c (ii) bottom may be in folks. with a strong trendline break, gdx now must hold above 25.60 and keep chomping higher (new highs)
otherwise it could be a head fake and still warrant price to dive back down towards 24

if this is the beginning of wave III then this sector will be very exciting in the coming weeks/months

http://i.imgur.com/9bBrlIz.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot


Well, you've called this pretty well so far, so I bought the dip, back in $2 higher lol.

So you're saying sitting with 30% of my portfolio in miners, and 30% of that in a 3x Jr Miner leveraged ETF isn't getting crazy?

well I started with 4 digits and now my account is 5 digits. crazy or not it will boil down to results.

I dont think I could have this type of exposure if I was running a 6 digit account. so to each their own risk and tolerance

[SilverRex]

if gdx reverses and breaks below 25.6 I may scale back some of my position in hopes to buy back lower

[SilverRex]

great close on gold and miners. lets see if it can keep this up and produce a runaway gap up tomorrow morning

[bspot]

Oil broke another up trend line. How botched is my wave count? :rofl:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_9b7979d5b7a1bf0fe32827300a6def88.png

XBI tried to go green today and failed. I'm reallllly hoping it can break down further and get close to the lower green dashed line, if it does, I'm all over it.

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_f7114578060df0bf6c60a07498eb0f84.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Oil broke another up trend line. How botched is my wave count? :rofl:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_9b7979d5b7a1bf0fe32827300a6def88.png

if you look at my last high level oil chart. I am still expecting a bottom to be had some where between 46-47, so we are almost there.

with about a week left until the Brexit vote. Again I am expecting a monster rally of everything (except gold, gold may actually get its correction after Brexit) shortly after and the timing is also about right for oil to remain weak for couple of more days.

[bspot]

^Thanks, missed that one as that host is blocked here. Do you have a good resource you can recommend that you used for EW education? Some of your wave counts on the more vague charts are still hard for me to follow with only a basic understanding of Elliot Waves.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by bspot
Oil broke another up trend line. How botched is my wave count? :rofl:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_9b7979d5b7a1bf0fe32827300a6def88.png



Does this mean you don't see a push past $52 anytime soon

[KappaSigma]

Rolled the dice again, bought Baytex at close.

[bspot]

Originally posted by ickyflex


Does this mean you don't see a push past $52 anytime soon

It means I screwed up my wave count.

That chart is basically garbage as is. Look at SilverRex's EW stuff, not mine, I'm an Elliot Wave n00b.

Given either of his bullish counts (which makes a lot more sense on many levels) we we should be almost down pulling back and ready for another impulse wave up to higher highs, or have a deeper correction, but not below 42, then on to higher highs.

My guess would be that supply won't allow for $42 oil. If it does, we are setting ourselves up for future shortage problems and a massive price spike, so you win as an investor anyway even if we drop off further for a bit.

I'm eyeing an opportunity to pick up some more MEG later this week, especially if it drops further. Rumours are swirling that the Access pipeline deal is near. Depending what they see from it, that could provide a pop.

[bspot]

Gold has touched 1306.....

Edit: Boom 1308. If this holds I owe SilverRex a beer for convincing me to rebuy what was to be my short term JNUG position. :clap:

[SilverRex]

Right now

market is in a bit of a panic sell off into the Brexit vote next week. I suspect a relief rally will take hold after but until then everything will remain weak including oil.

my last expectation was to see oil bottom in the 46-47 range so we have to see if there is any type of reversal happening now that we are close.

technically until oil price can break the down trendline shown here as well as recapture above the 200 EMA try not to get too bullish just yet. (I still see 55 oil on the horizon) but first sentiment on oil has to get very bearish and bottom out first.

http://i.imgur.com/dO8zV5b.png

daily chart.

if panic is more severe than I first thought, then similar to the last wave II drop from 42-35. Wait for trendline break and a swing low to form on this chart before going long in the energy sector.

http://i.imgur.com/mJg8paj.png

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Rolled the dice again, bought Baytex at close.

Glad I held off. Put a 2-day limit order in for $7 and it hit at about 9:30 this morning. Of course, now, only 1 hour later, it's down to 6.8....

[sabad66]

Originally posted by Kloubek


Glad I held off. Put a 2-day limit order in for $7 and it hit at about 9:30 this morning. Of course, now, only 1 hour later, it's down to 6.8....
This is why i never put in buy orders that are longer than same day.

Sell orders i do 'good til cancelled' sometimes but definitely not the buys.

[bball2]

Man everything in my portfolio except Barrick is taking a beating this morning.

[riander5]

Originally posted by bball2
Man everything in my portfolio except Barrick is taking a beating this morning.

Its like 2015 all over again ! :cry:

[SilverRex]

with gold taking out the previous top this year at 1303, I now see the next big resistance at 1381.

since we have multiple things that could stop gold from advance further.

At this rate if gold does not pull back, it could continue to grind higher leading up to the Brexit vote.

While I plan on holding all my positions for the next 2 months. 1381 could be a breather for the yellow metal

http://i.imgur.com/pwzWECz.png

[bspot]

Grabbed more JNUG on the pullback as there seems to be no sensible reason it would pull back below yesterdays close.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Grabbed more JNUG on the pullback as there seems to be no sensible reason it would pull back below yesterdays close.

i actually do not mind to see gold grind down slowly until the Brexit vote, because once the euro bottoms and dollar tops and the panic subsides, the USD should technically begin another sell off into new lows this is where gold will shine

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex

i actually do not mind to see gold grind down slowly until the Brexit vote, because once the euro bottoms and dollar tops and the panic subsides, the USD should technically begin another sell off into new lows this is where gold will shine

http://commentphotos.com/gallery/CommentPhotos.com_1407346387.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok an updated count on gdx.

it appears gdx may have completed a small sub 5 waves structure and is currently correcting for a abc wave ii low.

it has fulfilled this and price 'can' go back up from here.

the only question is are we ready to make wave III surge here? or do we have one more higher high to go follow by another correction before the real fun begins.

remember. as long as 25.6 holds. I continue to hold the bullish count view that wave III has begun.

breaking below 25.60 I suggest scaling back or exiting to find a lower low for gdx under 25.00

http://i.imgur.com/5qP0w8T.png

[bball2]

Originally posted by cjblair


http://commentphotos.com/gallery/CommentPhotos.com_1407346387.jpg

:rofl:

Man gold is starting to fall hard, well below closing yesterday now.

[riander5]

My timing on everything is so bad the last few days its killing me

Bought some BTE yesterday, prepared to leverage down and sit on it for a few weeks though.

Sold out of DUST before FOMC, but didnt get in on JNUG as everyone was saying hold rates the same (which they did) which left 25% of the NUG on the table.

LABU had a false breakout, and stopped out with 2% loss when she dropped today.

Maybe ill just put all my money in BTE and Yamana and come back and look in a year :rofl: :cry: