Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Vanish3d]

Just about 25.6 for gdx....

[SilverRex]

im actually quite happy to see gold tank. other wise if it keeps going higher without a correction it can crash very hard.

so this may turn out gold's wave 2 correction heading into the Brexit. now that the word on the street is that there is high chance they will stay.

this will also limit the market sell off and perhaps oil may have bottomed or could bottomed slightly ahead of the vote so will see how the reversal looks if it does form

remember recent rise in gold along with the US dollar means it was a fear trade that pushed it higher. at the end of the day once the Brexit is over. US dollar should begin to dwindle because of how dovish the fed was this week. Once gold finds a bottom, next leg up should bring it to 1400 and even 1500 during this new intermediate cycle.

Looking at the gold chart. I want to see gold test the 38% level at 1272 or even 1257.

first gold will have to counter trend rise to form a swing high as to construct a down trend line. once gold makes a lower low and price breaks the trendline, then we will have our next signal the wave III in gold will have started.

due to miners breaching key levels. I have reduced my core miners by 30% to see if price does move lower in the days ahead for me to re-enter

http://i.imgur.com/8tXAb5z.png

[SilverRex]

oil tested the 50 day moving average on the daily. while one usually requires confirmation if a bottom occurs by waiting for a swing low (price to break the previous day's high) and or the trendline break I posted this morning.

if your a risk taker. the 46 area could be the bottom for oil

who wants to take a poke at Meg again? if oil breaks down towards 44 Meg could very well see low 5s again.

http://i.imgur.com/hhtMN1y.png

[littledan]

Thank you for posting the chart analysis! Do you just set up your charts with 50/200 MA and the price and volume?

I'm waiting on an entry for baytex. Will likely jump in tomorrow morning depending on how things look.



Originally posted by SilverRex
Right now

market is in a bit of a panic sell off into the Brexit vote next week. I suspect a relief rally will take hold after but until then everything will remain weak including oil.

my last expectation was to see oil bottom in the 46-47 range so we have to see if there is any type of reversal happening now that we are close.

technically until oil price can break the down trendline shown here as well as recapture above the 200 EMA try not to get too bullish just yet. (I still see 55 oil on the horizon) but first sentiment on oil has to get very bearish and bottom out first.

http://i.imgur.com/dO8zV5b.png

daily chart.

if panic is more severe than I first thought, then similar to the last wave II drop from 42-35. Wait for trendline break and a swing low to form on this chart before going long in the energy sector.

http://i.imgur.com/mJg8paj.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by littledan
Thank you for posting the chart analysis! Do you just set up your charts with 50/200 MA and the price and volume?

I'm waiting on an entry for baytex. Will likely jump in tomorrow morning depending on how things look.




they are 50 and 200 EMA. pretty standard stuff, same thing with MACD. although I have learned 5 day RSI is a better indicator for oversold/buying.

here take look at the RSI notice any thing in common?

once oil bottoms either here at 46 or worse case I think 44. we should see everything turn back up strongly. to be safe you can wait until after the Brexit vote. then again, no risk no gain lol

http://i.imgur.com/WwoAuqK.png

[SilverRex]

apparently the alberta wild fire causing oil supply disruption does not get reflected until 5-6 weeks later.

hmmm so is one to expect further oil inventory surprise once oil bottoms?

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1466104054.php

[bspot]

SilverRex, have you done a count on silver lately? The chart is looking a bit concerning to me right now, as it appears to have failed making a higher high.

[SilverRex]

not sure who still holding Meg. but lets still look at the chart. from my last count I suggested that if meg takes out 6.82 then it gives a bearish view as it is only 3 waves up and possible lower low ahead.

that path still stands that could bring price down to low 5s.

however. despite oil tanking to 46. it has not been as weak as I first thought. now that price is still within a rising channel. One has to make a bullish case.

so lets try this.

as long as oil can bottom in around 46 then Meg should still hold well above 6.00 and as long as it does not break the previous low at 5.75 then I will entertain the possibility that Meg is setting up for a big wave III extension. What is that? it means more waves within a wave. This explains why after the first pop to 7.86 it came crashing down and broke the previous wave i which should have acted as a support.

what I am really saying is that. the next time Meg moves back up above 7.86, it wont just collapse back down like it use to in stead it would be ready to challenge much higher prices and may even breakout of the rising channel.

Of course this all will have to go hand in hand with oil going after 55-60 area which is also my expectation.

http://i.imgur.com/TQYgeRx.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
SilverRex, have you done a count on silver lately? The chart is looking a bit concerning to me right now, as it appears to have failed making a higher high.

I dont see anything wrong with silver, not to me anyways.

in EW rules, typically after 5 waves. price usually retrace to the previous wave (iii)(iv) range. it is doing exactly that.

it is very close to testing the 38% level and has already tested the 200 EMA. the only problem is, it has not retraced enough in terms of time. so if it can remain weak along with gold leading up to the Brexit Vote.
that would be ideal.

I have reduced 30% of my miners also 50% of my Jnug in anticipation for a lower entry.

but I will not sell everything off and take that chance again. the last time I did it in March it caused me to miss out 75% gain

http://i.imgur.com/MsNcxHu.png

[bspot]

^How do you arrive at that as your wave (iii)? Any books or references you used to learn Elliot Waves? I'd like to get better at them, as to me, your y wave looked like a failed (v) wave, as I had wave (iii) in the totally wrong spot.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
^How do you arrive at that as your wave (iii)? Any books or references you used to learn Elliot Waves? I'd like to get better at them, as to me, your y wave looked like a failed (v) wave, as I had wave (iii) in the totally wrong spot.

EW can be quite subjective at times. you are not wrong in thinking it produced a failed fifth wave. considering how volatile silver is, i would use gold's charting for a better count.

as for wave (iii)(iv) it's some where between 17.1-17.3 so you could be right also.

mind you i am no expert in EW analysis either, just enough to make sense of price movement and draw my conclusions from there. Besides there are so much more to EW and I dont even draw ratios and price target lines.

it gets quite confusing if you dial down to all the smaller waves. but if you stand back at a higher level then it was quite obvious that silver has moved into a wave 2 correction after making 5 waves some where in there.

of course if silver takes out the low under 15.8, then a high level recount will be needed to make sense of that

i am sure some will be calling the recent drop the start of something big and back down to under 1200 or even to new lows. but those analyst do not take into account daily and intermediate cycles. we just had a weekly swing low occurred and so the rise off the low 2 weeks ago is the start of a new intermediate swing. First leg up follow by a half or daily cycle low (which is like a wave 2/4 correction)

i like to start combining the two and it gives me more confidence when they line up.

[bspot]

^Thanks for taking the time to respond. I've learned a ton in this thread and my TFSA is starting to show the results.

[SilverRex]

Oil was able to rally off 46 and with the market forming a strong reversal as long as it remains flat and not give back all of yesterdays recovery then this should setup nicely for a good follow thru next week

[KappaSigma]

Sold baytex for 245 or 1% sitting all cash again.

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Sold baytex for 245 or 1% sitting all cash again.

Shame. It's gone up noticeably since you sold.

Up 7.2% for today so far.

I could sell and make a small amount of money today, but I think I am viewing Baytex as a longer term investment. I want to see it go back up to pre-decline levels of a year and a half ago; that's where the real money is. It is just hard with the volatility right now. Not sure I can handle the stress of seeing my biggest investment nosedive.

[SilverRex]

looks like my target for oil to reach 46-47 area was a perfect call.

looking at the oil chart. we have a bounce off 5 day RSI oversold which is the exact same pattern when oil bottom last two times at 35 and at 26.

we are right at the down trend line this morning, breaking it adds another confirmation that this cycle low is in and we should technically begin to make another run towards above 50, next target is 55-60 oil.

http://i.imgur.com/m5SB8nK.png

I was betting that Meg was ready to bounce off the rising channel yesterday and as long as we get a bottom in and oil reversed off 46. Then Meg's bullish count will be very much in play.

we now have swing low in Meg as well as getting back above the 50 day moving average. If oil did bottom at 46 and begin to attack 55-60 oil in the coming weeks.

then be prepare for Meg as count suggest it is in a 1-2, 1-2 and a powerful wave 3 should be in the cards.

if Meg breaksdown from the rising channel and especially goes below 5.75 then it will be heading towards low 5s or even slightly under.

how many remember when Abx.to continued to test 11 dollars last year. once it finally broke thru it more than doubled. so Meg has tested 7.0-7.5 area 5 times. The believe is that when a price gets knocked 3 times, it usually means it eventually will breakout. that is how triangle rising wedge patterns are form.

anyways I remain bullish on Meg

http://i.imgur.com/iLdsxHo.png

[SilverRex]

update on miners (gdx)

after a sharp drop in gold yesterday. which was much needed. the news that Brexit vote will either get delayed or remain has completely reversed and halted the panic sell off in the stock market. hence gold's 35 dollar fear trade premium was gone.

while gold is slowly rising again. (most likely due to being extremely oversold) I expect a lower low to complete the correction. My expectation is that gold's downside is limited considering the USD is having trouble making new highs and if the Brexit cant fuel it any more, then once USD resumes dropping to new lows. Gold will move back up towards the 1400 target.

this chart is similar to the one I posted a few days back. the initial rise out of 21.94 should be a wave 1 top follow by a correction., however due to gold's sudden collapse it too halted the wave iii advance and forced a longer correction. which the original idea that gdx must dip below under 25 is back on the table.

My current view is that anything below 25 is a great buying zone/opportunity for a medium term hold. Your last chance to gain exposure in this sector or for many years to come.

however downside risk always will be there in all sectors and market. Key is 23.80, if gdx breaks this area, then a larger degree correction is continuing that would point to a lower low under 22 will be in the cards.

until such technical weakness shows up, I am calling one more dive in miners towards 24-25 then we begin wave III advance

http://i.imgur.com/yzqnJkB.png

[SilverRex]

ok last chart of the day and i am done this week.

the reason why I feel gold's downside is limited is because it is back on tracking inverse to the USD dollar. it has always been this way minus fear trades and interest rate announcements.

as you can see looking at the euro/usd currency pair. it is becoming clear that the move recently is very corrective in nature meaning once it breaks out of this wedge (which means euro have bottomed) and USD begins a new down trend. gold will benefit thru out.

we had a false breakout this morning and how far gold will fall will depends on how much USD strength is left.

http://i.imgur.com/ZzMwE5l.png

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by Kloubek


Shame. It's gone up noticeably since you sold.

Up 7.2% for today so far.

I could sell and make a small amount of money today, but I think I am viewing Baytex as a longer term investment. I want to see it go back up to pre-decline levels of a year and a half ago; that's where the real money is. It is just hard with the volatility right now. Not sure I can handle the stress of seeing my biggest investment nosedive.

I sold at 7.30. So i am fine with my gain, alrwady made my huge gain a week ago.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


I sold at 7.30. So i am fine with my gain, alrwady made my huge gain a week ago.

well count wise if oil did bottom at 46, I am envisioning bte to be in the double digits in the few weeks

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by SilverRex


well count wise if oil did bottom at 46, I am envisioning bte to be in the double digits in the few weeks

Brexit worries my. Not thst it will happen but just that there may be some short term volatility in the market until the vote. Prefer to keep my capital safe and play any large swings if possible. Yesterday would have been a grwat day to buy, damn day job got in the way.

[SilverRex]

ok I lied. One more chart

following up to the gold chart I posted yesterday. after the initial drop, I was expecting a counter trend rally wave B so that we can construct our down trendline.

we got that today and so the perfect scenario would be to see gold dive for a wave C and if it can backtest the previous trendline breakout near 1250 then this would give us a text book perfect correctional setup.

I am also counting on this so that I can see gdx under 25

http://i.imgur.com/FxAlcYv.png

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex


well count wise if oil did bottom at 46, I am envisioning bte to be in the double digits in the few weeks

So tough to say what oil will do now.

Technically is OB on weekly RSI, and that has produced a reliable 6-12 drop the last few times. That being said that was in a downtrend so greater dips are to be expected. OS RSI in an uptrend is usually produces a small drop or pause in uptrend.

But weekly OB lines up very well with an obvious E wave 5 count since the 27 dollar bottom, and im seeing 37-41 dollars if that holds true.

Guess time will tell

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


I sold at 7.30. So i am fine with my gain, alrwady made my huge gain a week ago.

Fair enough. I'm kinda kicking myself for not buying in when it was far lower like you did, but I feel that even at $7 a share, there is ample opportunity to make money with a long term position.

[KappaSigma]

I agree. I am long term bullish oil. My hope is to keep playing dips along the ride up on baytex. Made 750 on baytex this week on two trades. If i can do that weekly, pretty happy

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5

im seeing 37-41 dollars if that holds true.

If that happens, we are going to see serious supply damage, and basically guarantee a brief look at $100+ in the future because the oil market will be such a disaster.

I think fundamentals prevent that scenario.


I also think if I was worth listening to, I wouldn't be sitting here at my day job :rofl:

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot


If that happens, we are going to see serious supply damage, and basically guarantee a brief look at $100+ in the future because the oil market will be such a disaster.

I think fundamentals prevent that scenario.


I also think if I was worth listening to, I wouldn't be sitting here at my day job :rofl:

Yea i mean I really dont see oil dropping below 42 at the extremes. If it did great for me cause id load up.

My last chart i posted way back i was 1 dollar off and bang on in timelines for that run up to 52... unfortunately i bought where I guessed, but sold at 48 and missed about 20% on baytex

[SilverRex]

gdx just would not break 25,

technically I must warn, in an abc wave. typically wave C are a panic emotional sell off and often price reflects it that it will hit a lower price than wave A. but no where does it have to produce this either.

anyways the chart I am watching is the euro/usd that I posted. if euro breaksout and USD begins to free fall. there gold's correction will be extremely mild and is a cause for concern at least for those that want to get in on a better price entry.

This is one reason why I will continue to hold my core positions thru out this cycle. One wrong timing could potentially put me out of position and miss some great runs.

I have scaled back in my miners as well as my Jnug position. while my exit and entry price remained same for my Jnug. at least my 30% core miners I was able to enter at a lower price than yesterday by about 3%

even if gdx does fall below 25. I expect lots of buying especially at the 24.4 50% retracement

[bspot]

I'm sort of hoping miners don't correct much more. While I'd like to scale in further to my position, I'm long on oil after grabbing MEG at 6.20, and if Biotech plays out as I hope, I'm going to want to pile in on LABU next week.

Basically too many opportunities coming together at once.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
I'm sort of hoping miners don't correct much more. While I'd like to scale in further to my position, I'm long on oil after grabbing MEG at 6.20, and if Biotech plays out as I hope, I'm going to want to pile in on LABU next week.

Basically too many opportunities coming together at once.

that is the believe similar to the 09/10 market environments, everything will be going up together. In other words, pick your poison

[SilverRex]

bspot

if both silver and gold does not make a lower low and begins to move higher from here and even breakout next week, then this will explain the count on silver yesterday as an XYZ or ABC wave so wave Y was correct.

and in gold the higher high was wave B also resulting in wave C which has the characteristic of a sharp emotional sell off.

I am bias in gold so I will continue to try and spot the bullish count or case despite everyone is saying how bearish it looks after dropping 30 dollars and producing a reversal candle.

[riander5]

What are people feeling the odds of Brexit are anyways?

I agree with SilverRex should be a rally if they stay.. which I believe is the favored opinion currently.

But if they left... make sure you have stops in place :nut:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
What are people feeling the odds of Brexit are anyways?

I agree with SilverRex should be a rally if they stay.. which I believe is the favored opinion currently.

But if they left... make sure you have stops in place :nut:

the fact that even if they vote to leave, it will take months and years before anything would happen.

other than an initial shock. I think regardless of results, the market will rally any ways. The biggest concern was the fear heading in but that was halted with the death tragedy like that wasnt obvious intervention.

if they leave, gold goes up, if they stay, USD drops, gold still goes up...

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
bspot

if both silver and gold does not make a lower low and begins to move higher from here and even breakout next week, then this will explain the count on silver yesterday as an XYZ or ABC wave so wave Y was correct.

and in gold the higher high was wave B also resulting in wave C which has the characteristic of a sharp emotional sell off.

I am bias in gold so I will continue to try and spot the bullish count or case despite everyone is saying how bearish it looks after dropping 30 dollars and producing a reversal candle.

That really clears up the silver chart for me if that is the case (which I hope it is). Thanks!

[SilverRex]

oil broke the down trend line and confirmed a swing low by breaking previous day's high. this is a solid confirmation that oil at 46 may be in folks

25 to 42 = 16
35 to 51 = 16
46 + 16 = 62 that will be my next upside target

[bspot]

XBI currently below $53.60. A close below that and everything is on track for the setup I'm hoping for next week at 51-52.

If it bounces at 53.60 it may have found short term support.

[riander5]

XBI is oversold on 1h, 4h, and 1d

Look for a 1h breakout, last one unfortunately caused a false 4h breakout but still thats the signal

[bspot]

^I bet it will bounce of $52.65 or ~$53.20, but my hope is it will grind lower next week. May add a small position of LABU if it makes it to $52.60s, otherwise waiting on the sideline.

EDIT: Beer money in LABU at XBI $53.25. Super tight stop set and selling before EOD.

Why not.

Everything else has been boring today ;)

[bspot]

Even that was boring. Made enough for a dented can of Lucky Lager... before commissions :cry:

[bspot]

dp

[KappaSigma]

Back in to baytex. 3500 shares @ 7.17.

[littledan]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Back in to baytex. 3500 shares @ 7.17.

I'm with ya! Let's go WTI I need a new bauer nexus!

[SilverRex]

ok so many love playing the energy sector. No matter which stock you are playing, if you are confident and been following oil prices and know that if oil prices moves up significantly that directly affects your stock then be prepare to smile in the coming weeks.

while nothing significant changed from my last couple of charts for oil. I just wanted to reiterate oil has produced some very convincing reversal signals to end the week. So here we go...

hourly chart. I cant imagine a better outcome and text book move as price literally bounced off 46 which was my target since oil started this 6-7 day sell off (most likely due to Brexit fear) I warned that when oil price could not get back above 49.75 and closed under that it was time to exit the oil sector until it finds a bottom. To which I think it did.

Not only did oil price rally strongly off 46, it also broke two down trend line which is very powerful reversal and signal out of a short term bottom.

My expectation for next week. Brexit vote will continue to lead investor's mind and so there will be volatility and indecision. I suspect oil price will at some point backtest one of the two previous trendline that was broken. But I see any good pull back an opporunity to either enter a trade if you are still waiting or increase your position (with stops, typically below your stock's recent low set when oil was trading at 46 or mentally with oil under 46) since we just had day 1 of oil entering a new cycle, it does not get any more early other than taking a risk at buying when oil price was at 46 which I did recommend to risk takers who just loves to jump in earlier.

Typically the hardest trade is buying at the bottom because everyone believes it will continue to head south with no clear view of the sky. I know many are thinking 41-42 oil. Which isnt impossible but what if that never comes? why wouldnt you trade like oil bottomed at 46 and make the appropriate enter/exit strategy? instead of missing out.

those following my charting, how many was able to jump in with both feet when oil bottom at 35? when oil bottomed at 35 with a similar situation breaking the down trendline at the time, I have already painted a 50-51.39 price target. Did we achieve this? obviously the higher we go away from the recent bottom (at 26) the more difficult it is to predict price movement because all things shoots back to it's mean. because oil was sold off so much, it is basically catching up and swinging back up to a median price level (sort of the reason why gold stocks rose 200-350% in a matter of a couple of months.

http://i.imgur.com/eV4PbRU.png

Looking at the daily oil chart. oil produced a swing low as well as rallying off the 50day moving average which was what I was hoping for. Notice the 5 day RSI? I said even when oil was at 46.00 I said in a new bull market, price will often rally off the oversold very quickly. this has been a very good gauge to spot a bottom reversal since oil rallied off 26.

With 50.00 being a psychological barrier, I will not be surprised we will hit some consolidation pattern before breaking out but the new rising channel suggest top side in the 60s.

And yes some are still wondering about the 200EMA. that will be the downside risk imo. shall oil suddenly sell off due to what ever intervention or news or you can even call it manipulation or shake out. then oil's next big support is around 44.

http://i.imgur.com/ZOKRFnY.png

Lastly, oil's weekly chart. this is where the target for oil is set. the 200 EMA on this chart is at 66. Some bear market analyst will not be convinced that oil has entered a bull market until they see oil price break the previous resistance consolidation at the 55-64 range (guess what by the time it did, will they have missed the rally from 26-66? you bet.

even if this is a giant correctional rally and oil will head back down to new lows. dont you think after it rallying off 26 so strongly, at a minimum it has to at least retrace back to the 38% fib level? which is at 58 dollars.

The fact that oil price was sold off so quickly and stretched so far away from it's 200 EMA, it usually results in equal force swinging back the other way. There is this principle you can adopt in your trading. Either the moving averages catches up or price moves violently back towards it.

http://i.imgur.com/GvUbil0.png

[SilverRex]

ok only one chart on gold.

the last count I was expecting gold to make a wave C low some where down to the 1251-1260 are would be a perfect correction. But given how strongly gold reversed on friday. I am beginning to doubt this count. One must adapt when things changes quickly,

So my new bullish count suggest gold may have already printed an ABC wave (II) low at 1276 and gold is slowly but deceptively recovering for a bigger upside breakout next week.

since it looks like 5 sub mini waves are completed, the next down move will be the telling.

My bullish count suggest we are to expect a small down draft early next week follow by upside breakout.

This is the reason why I have scaled back into all my miners.

however I still have my alt count which we can still see gold push down for one final low but at this time if that was the case I am going to say one last thrust under 1276 and that will be it.

so downside is very much limited.

especially with the Brexit vote just a few days away. regardless of outcome, once it is over. everyone will be focusing on the currency. and that is a weak USD in the coming months due to no rate hike that will continue to drive gold price up thru the summer.

as for miners. GDX may or may not break below 25. if it did, its a wonderful buying opportunity,

http://i.imgur.com/CYlnsfL.png

on the weekly chart. the 30+ dollar drop on thursday would have painted a bearish weekly signal, yet the strong recovery has now reversed this and the weekly chart remains bullish.

key things to note. gold has broken the 2015 high and has closed a nearly 2 year high. MACD has crossed over to the upside on the weekly so I expect better things to come in this sector thru the summer.

http://i.imgur.com/q3Xkrop.png

[KappaSigma]

Sold my baytex i bought end of friday for 1700 gain or 6.8% have an order to purchase at 7.50.

[bball2]

Gold holdings getting hammered this morning, but good performance for oil

[SilverRex]

quick update on euro/usd as I posted last week. euro was in a consolidation waiting for a breakout move and we got that to start the week off.

while a falling USD usually means stronger gold prices but the drop today in gold most likely means there is a bit of Brexit fear left being cleared out. once everything settles and investor realize dollar is in a free fall, gold will rebound.

which means gdx (by the way it finally cracked under 25) anything under 25 imo is a great pickup for a medium term hold

http://i.imgur.com/5jpFOBQ.png

[SilverRex]

if xbi takes out last week's high, then we have confirmation the bottom may be in. the next time xbi heads backup in a bullish manner, it may finally be able to take out the 60 area

[SilverRex]

picked up some labu 29.50

[KappaSigma]

Baytex order of 7.50 filled this morning which i just sold again for 280 profit or 1.1% . ive put in another buy order at 7.50 again.

[riander5]

Bought BTE 4 days ago and 2 days ago, currently up 6%

Hoping crude still has a ways to run

[SilverRex]

gold

cautiously optimistic. watch out if gold breaks the down trend line which may confirm the low wave (II) is in and we are ready for wave III surge.

alt count remains on the table that gold can still break lower under 1276 so the next couple of hours could be telling

while gdx had made a lower low under 25. gdxj (juniors) is showing strength.

http://i.imgur.com/wFmwZvK.png

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
picked up some labu 29.50

What was your reasons for picking now? 3 touches off XBI ~53.70 and looks like some consolidation at this level?

I picked up a partial position, but still hoping for lower entry. If it doesn't come, I won't chase this up, as I've seen it reverse back down to my price target too many times before without the cash left to take advantage.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot


What was your reasons for picking now? 3 touches off XBI ~53.70 and looks like some consolidation at this level?

I picked up a partial position, but still hoping for lower entry. If it doesn't come, I won't chase this up, as I've seen it reverse back down to my price target too many times before without the cash left to take advantage.

this is my first position after a while so it is a good area to enter and hold. mind you we are flirting with the 61% retracement from the recent 49-60 runup so unless it wants to make a lower low under 49 or even under 44. then this should be it.

[littledan]

... that awkward feeling when you tell your banker you take your investment advice from a thread on beyond.ca....

[SilverRex]

despite gold is lower than friday, gdxj (or Jnug) is higher. strength in miners. I hope everyone has at least picked up some position when gdx was under 25

[riander5]

Originally posted by littledan
... that awkward feeling when you tell your banker you take your investment advice from a thread on beyond.ca....

Its here or reddit/r/wallstreetbets

[KappaSigma]

Im trafing the sht out of baytex today. Still have my 7.50 limit bid in. But while i wait bought the dip at 7.54 and just sold at 7.61 for 245 or another 1%

[ercchry]

Dumped gold short this morning (basically just broke even) and started a long position... Great timing!

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
despite gold is lower than friday, gdxj (or Jnug) is higher. strength in miners. I hope everyone has at least picked up some position when gdx was under 25

Im amazed miners are holding so strong. I was planning on staying out for the next few days then maybe entering YRI / JNUG closer to brexit...

[bball2]

Originally posted by riander5


Its here or reddit/r/wallstreetbets

https://i.imgur.com/DhWOxNq.jpg

[riander5]

Originally posted by bball2


https://i.imgur.com/DhWOxNq.jpg

Hahahaha exactly!

[littledan]

sold off my baytex today at 7.60 for a small profit... gonna keep my eyes peeled for another entry tomorrow

[you&me]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Im trafing the sht out of baytex today. Still have my 7.50 limit bid in. But while i wait bought the dip at 7.54 and just sold at 7.61 for 245 or another 1%

Who do you trade with? Just wondering what the commissions are and if they're eating into your upside?

[riander5]

Id be willing to bet his commissions are around 10 bucks per trade. As long as you are making 200 bucks or more per trade it's more than worth it

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by you&me


Who do you trade with? Just wondering what the commissions are and if they're eating into your upside?

10 per trade.

[SilverRex]

looks like gold is moving down my alt path. which has always been on the back of my mind hoping gold would at a minimum retest the 38% retracement level at 1271. Now that gold really did hit this level. Is this it? we will now have to wait and see. yesterday gold had a false breakout so a new downtrend line has been created. if and when gold can over come this trendline, it should finally put away the low.

downside risk as wave C are often a panic sell off it can still have a chance to collapse down to the 1245-1260 area .

so far despite gold making a lower low, silver remains higher so clearly when silver shows strength that is usually a good sign.

Obviously miners will yet again open down but so far well above yesterday's low.

from now until thursday Brexit vote, there could be volatility. but if that means lower gold prices, I see that as another good opportunity to add

http://i.imgur.com/0UtThKS.png

[SilverRex]

as for oil, expecting a pull back after it nearly ran up 4 dollars.

[KappaSigma]

Bought baytex. Will be looking to add to position on any pullbacks.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Bought baytex. Will be looking to add to position on any pullbacks.

Sold for 245 gain. Have a buy order in again. Hopefully fills.

[SilverRex]

im not sure if anyone noticed this but yesterday despite gold was lower, junior miners was higher relative to friday's price action.

today it is again showing tremendous strength. gold is down over 20 dollars, normally that would have been a slaughter house in the mining complex but it is holding up very well. gdx continues to not allow any buy orders under 25

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex
im not sure if anyone noticed this but yesterday despite gold was lower, junior miners was higher relative to friday's price action.

today it is again showing tremendous strength. gold is down over 20 dollars, normally that would have been a slaughter house in the mining complex but it is holding up very well. gdx continues to not allow any buy orders under 25

Shouldn't this be a little concerning then? If gold can break down further to the ~1245 area, I'd be afraid the bottom will fall out of the junior miners. (YRI showing the same strength, not breaking below $6 area)

Or maybe I'm out to lunch? Serious question.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair


Shouldn't this be a little concerning then? If gold can break down further to the ~1245 area, I'd be afraid the bottom will fall out of the junior miners. (YRI showing the same strength, not breaking below $6 area)

Or maybe I'm out to lunch? Serious question.

you are not wrong in saying that. pretty much anything could happen. but until then I can only look at the recent price action as a positive divergence. a hint that perhaps while gold is trying to find support, miners have already found theirs.

my strategy hasnt change. if miners suddenly falls out from here 5-7% I will start coverting over to Jnug. I havent had the need to do so yet since my first Jnug position remains in around the same price.

the intraday swings are hard to watch some times. but the bigger picture gold is correcting after the run up from 1199-1313. once correction is done, I see higher highs coming.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


Sold for 245 gain. Have a buy order in again. Hopefully fills.

Filled and sold again. 210 gain. My goal to start was net profit 500 per week, wonder if its too low. In 6 trading days ive managed 3,300.

[bspot]

XBI looks like it may continue heading toward the bottom of the channel. XBI in the 51s = BUY BUY BUY!

[SilverRex]

miners are just itching to jump. it has so much bounce even if gold moves up a little.

while I am expecting gold to make new highs in the coming weeks/months regardless of the Brexit vote.

I can only imagine if the vote is to leave this thursday gold could have a 100 dollar move field day

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
XBI looks like it may continue heading toward the bottom of the channel. XBI in the 51s = BUY BUY BUY!

xbi bounced off the 100SMA 52.67, could be a good place to form a reversal

[Kloubek]

Ok, so I'm totally confused.

I hold a stock that, unbeknownst to me, changed the market they trade on. Was NYSE, and is now trading on OTCQX.

I'm totally confused though. Are my shares now to be followed via OTCQX? Do I just sell my shares via the NYSE? What do I do now?

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex


xbi bounced off the 100SMA 52.67, could be a good place to form a reversal

I've held on to my original LABU position in case the 100 day MA holds, but am unsure at this point if I'll add more around here until I see further confirmation the trend has reversed. I want to make sure I'm in a position to load up if this support breaks.

[oster]

Twin Butte (TBE) credit extension expires today, waiting to hear the outcome as they are apparently looking for a buyout but they have given zero information about what kind of deal is being made behind the scenes.

Avg share price is .055, rolling the dice.. Hopefully, for the sake of guys in at a much higher sp, the news is positive.

[KappaSigma]

Any guess on how the market might open tomorrow, not sure if I want to have an open position at close or be all cash.

hmmmm

[bspot]

XBI seems glued to it's 100 DMA, no bounce at all so far.

I may dump a large portion of my LABU before close and hope for better reentry depending how the day finishes.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
XBI seems glued to it's 100 DMA, no bounce at all so far.

I may dump a large portion of my LABU before close and hope for better reentry depending how the day finishes.

generally stock market has no direction until Brexit vote comes and pass as the recent poll suggest slight lead on the leave camp

[bspot]

Well, today was ugly.

My fear of getting left behind has me a little too balls deep in miners right now and a little nervous. Sitting on some cash for a further dip would have me feeling more secure.

I also wish I wasn't faked out by the XBI consolidation over the last 5 days and stayed out waiting for my $51 XBI target. It still may not come, so it may end up being fortunate down the road, we shall see.

At least MEG is holding up well. I'm really hoping oil can pop so I can exit that position and have some cash to alleviate any concerns about further Bio/Gold dips.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Well, today was ugly.

My fear of getting left behind has me a little too balls deep in miners right now and a little nervous. Sitting on some cash for a further dip would have me feeling more secure.

I also wish I wasn't faked out by the XBI consolidation over the last 5 days and stayed out waiting for my $51 XBI target. It still may not come, so it may end up being fortunate down the road, we shall see.

At least MEG is holding up well. I'm really hoping oil can pop so I can exit that position and have some cash to alleviate any concerns about further Bio/Gold dips.

I was in a similar feeling and situation when gdx made new lows in the 12s and yri.to and k.to went down to 2 bucks. of course I feel like a fool now

[bspot]

^At the time you had positions, but lacked the ability to scale in lower? If you were me, would you peel off some of my holdings at current levels to enable lower entry, or dump more stable holdings and just go balls to the wall leveraged and bail on the whole plan if gold blows below 1240s and XBI ducks under 50? :rofl:

[bspot]

In other news, oil just punched above $50 again.

[quick_scar]

Anyone else holding PMT for that sweet sweet 16% gain yesterday?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
^At the time you had positions, but lacked the ability to scale in lower? If you were me, would you peel off some of my holdings at current levels to enable lower entry, or dump more stable holdings and just go balls to the wall leveraged and bail on the whole plan if gold blows below 1240s and XBI ducks under 50? :rofl:


i really cant tell you. it's up to your own risk tolerance. for myself I have no problem holding any draw down knowing eventually prices will continue to make new highs. That is my own believe and strategy.

sure I want to get in at the absolute right price, but that is very difficult to do.

[SilverRex]

looking at gold this morning. it is still trying to find a bottom.

until a key reversal takes place and price can move back above the previous wave A 1276 which is also happens to be the 200EMA. there is still further downside risk with the 50% retracement at 1257-59 follow by 1245.

over all gold is simply correcting. anything at this point of 20-30 dollars lower should be bought.

just like when I was telling everyone that silver was an extremely great buy when it was falling and under 16.00, I am sure everyone wish they had got in then.

think about it.

Brexit or Bremain, both win win for gold.

if Brexit happens, gold will pop 75-100+ due to instability and fear. If Brexit fails. Euro will rally hard and USD will fall, gold amid some short term volatility will eventually move inverse to the US dollar and hence continue to rise. Everyone will again focus on the latest sentiment and that is the Fed is very dovish.

[SilverRex]

nice pop in biotech. possibly a swing low today. if it holds up, bottom could be in.

[bspot]

My LABU is in the green. Makes me a little sad, as this was supposed to be half my position and was going to load up further this morning.

I guess there is still a chance this will struggle a bit off the bottom and I'll have another opportunity.

I'm seriously debating converting all my gold/silver positions to JNUG if it has anymore significant downward movement.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
My LABU is in the green. Makes me a little sad, as this was supposed to be half my position and was going to load up further this morning.

I guess there is still a chance this will struggle a bit off the bottom and I'll have another opportunity.

I'm seriously debating converting all my gold/silver positions to JNUG if it has anymore significant downward movement.

if you do not like too much exposure in the mining complex you can consider USLV 3x silver spot price. silver is out performing gold right now and during the next rally it will certainly lead quite a bit.

[riander5]

What the fuck happened that caused that 7% pop?

One company smashed earnings or had a good trial im assuming... not sure who though. Thats a big bounce for the ETF out of nowhere haha

[SilverRex]

here is a reason why biotech jumped today

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-22/biotechs-surge-favorable-medicare-decision

[riander5]

Ah that makes sense. I didnt think one company could have that effect.

Biotech will drop if brexit happens though... whats the latest polls? Im seeing it looking more likely they will brexit... I still cant see it happening though

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Ah that makes sense. I didnt think one company could have that effect.

Biotech will drop if brexit happens though... whats the latest polls? Im seeing it looking more likely they will brexit... I still cant see it happening though

even though if the vote was to leave it will still take years for anything to happen imo. the biggest problem with the leave vote is that many more will follow.

its the investor's sentiment and shock factor that is more damaging than the actual event.

I too doubt they will leave, too much at stake. even if it means they have to rig the system to produce the wanted results.

however, anything can happen. if somehow Brexit does happen.. just watch the fire works in the market.

[SilverRex]

I posted a while ago. looks like a bottom in biotech due to seasonal swings should be close at hand.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/S5BIOTX%20Index.PNG

[bspot]

Added to my LABU.

I have no idea why I'm making any decisions this week.

Hopefully if things go crazy, either my LABU/oil plays are up big or gold is up big.

[bspot]

In other news, I'm no longer selling MEG on any blip and hoping for lower reentry. Holding for something more significant.

Is it me, or is this some major long term consolidation?

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_077d215c3e6f6d09cf70d0f3c9a06122.png