Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bjstare]

Anyone do DWTI today? I bought just at EIA release time, sold later in the morning for a small profit. A little choked at how much I left on the table though (I sold around $73)

[ercchry]

LRE sale finally got approval... I sold, not chasing that last $0.02

[bspot]

Biotech is a yo yo today. Day traders must be having a feast.

[SilverRex]

looks like investors have loaded up on miners, as they are way up and gold is basically flat to down.

could be the first sign some big swings coming

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
In other news, I'm no longer selling MEG on any blip and hoping for lower reentry. Holding for something more significant.

Is it me, or is this some major long term consolidation?

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_077d215c3e6f6d09cf70d0f3c9a06122.png

I expect Meg to at least hit 10-12 dollars. Since I see oil at 55-60

I wish I have more capital to invest, over all everything will go up like in 2010 so you could pretty much pick any sector and win. of all of them I think metals will have the highest return in a couple of years time.

[SilverRex]

quick update on oil.

if you recall the oil chart I posted shortly after oil rally off 46 dollars last week. I was expecting a rise then sell off into wave II possibly backtest a previous trendline. I underestimated how strong oil came out of the bottom. so the real sell off really didnt start happening until yesterday and today.

for the time being, I expect 46 to hold and any pull back now should be viewed as a great buying opportunity. Once oil completes wave II, wave III should take us up well pass 51.4+ I suspect at least 53-55 area.

I do have an alt count giving oil further correction even if it begins to rally strongly. but both scenario still points towards stronger oil prices in the coming weeks

oil has already tested the 200 EMA and 38%, the only question is, where will the bottom end.

no ruling out tomorrow's Brexit vote could push oil both direction. Again, we have entered a good buy zone for oil. any lower price screams bargin imo

http://i.imgur.com/dmlLbry.png

[riander5]

So what are we thinking? Take a position in Gold because you think it will go up either way?
They stay - USD drops and XAUUSD goes up
They leave - panic in the markets sending money into gold
I assume that is your logic?
So are you just all in on gold miners then?

I want to get in on some LABU action too but will wait to see what happens before I do that... if they leave i imagine it will take a bit of a drop.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
So what are we thinking? Take a position in Gold because you think it will go up either way?
They stay - USD drops and XAUUSD goes up
They leave - panic in the markets sending money into gold
I assume that is your logic?
So are you just all in on gold miners then?

I want to get in on some LABU action too but will wait to see what happens before I do that... if they leave i imagine it will take a bit of a drop.

Yes that sums it up

I have two main core miners position in Yamana and Kinross.
then a stake in Jnug and a stake in sil.v

I would caution all other sectors, while I believe they will stay. but if they surprise the world with a leave vote, it can harm stocks in the short term and force an intermediate decline sell off of 5-10%

[SilverRex]

great divergence on miners today. very impressed despite gold was flat. looking forward to a surprise leave vote tomorrow...but for the sake of all the investor here. lets just see Brexit fail and move on so everyone can make money

[bspot]

Big volume on LABU today, and a doji on the daily.

Potential flag showing up on the shorter time frames. I hope there are a ton of polls pointing to Bremain coming tomorrow morning and this thing finally goes for a rip.

MEG held up well all things considered. Still holding my position from $6.20.

So tempted to convert all my miners to JNUG but way too much leveraged ETF action in my portfolio right now for my risk tolerance level.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Big volume on LABU today, and a doji on the daily.

Potential flag showing up on the shorter time frames. I hope there are a ton of polls pointing to Bremain coming tomorrow morning and this thing finally goes for a rip.

MEG held up well all things considered. Still holding my position from $6.20.

So tempted to convert all my miners to JNUG but way too much leveraged ETF action in my portfolio right now for my risk tolerance level.

you know you've got too much risk if you cant fall asleep at night without thinking about it.

then again someone one said. best gains came when his hands were shaking after pulling the trigger

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex


you know you've got too much risk if you cant fall asleep at night without thinking about it.

then again someone one said. best gains came when his hands were shaking after pulling the trigger

That's why I stopped trading on a really short time frame. I hated having to worry about a gap up or down and pulling the trigger on trades right at open or losing a bunch because of a meeting.

Trading the bigger swings a few percent here or there feels like a much smaller deal.

[littledan]

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/energy/cra-hits-baytex-energy-corp-with-tax-reassessments-and-the-bill-could-hit-134-million

Is it going to be blood bath on market open? I have an open position.

[SilverRex]

looks like more and more signs are showing Brexit will fail and all sectors are going to open strong.

oil looks ready to pop above 50 again.

gold despite over night lower, is ready to bottom out and head higher.

everything looks good.

by the way. LABU had insane volume yesterday. an indication bottom could be in

[SilverRex]

while gold is trying to find it's bottom.

lets look at the daily chart. I havent posted the daily chart for a while. how many remember when gold price first hit 1303 and started coming down in early May and I posted the possibility that gold will make a wave C low under 1206?

while my ideal target was 1180-1191. it came so close to 1199 and fulfilled this move down.

even I was surprised that price moved exactly to my suspected counts.

well now that gold price has completely reversed and made a new high above 1303, I want to once again say the latest action should be viewed as a correction or consolidation. If the move from 1199 to 1315 was wave 1. then wave 2 should be completed no later by the end of next week. Since ideally corrections should only last 1/3 to 2/3 of the time duration in reference of the initial move or rise in price. Since wave 1 took 2.5 weeks. wave 2 cannot exceed this.

as of today. gold has fully tested the 50% retracement leve of the 1199-1315 move. which makes it an ideal bottom. now it is up to the market to show us if this will be the case.

for the moment, I am expecting the 50day moving average to hold and so even if gold suddenly sells off I expect quick recovery around this area.

until gold produces a breakout signal or form a swing low on this chart. downside risk remains and price still has a shot at testing the lowside of 1230-1245.

As you can see we have two trend lines that I expect will support price and stop any panic bleeding.

The fun will begin when we start seeing price shoot back towards 1300 and begin consolidating upwards for an upside breakout targeting over 1400 in the coming weeks.

technically the US dollar has already failed to rebound significantly due to the Brexit event and has now resume with lots of downside pressure.

once Brexit is over, investor will focus back on the the US dollar and realize the play is to long gold.

the Brexit fear premium was already baked in and possibly even removed after gold's latest take down a couple of days ago. So downside risk should be limited.

http://i.imgur.com/HxUPhkD.png

[SilverRex]

if oil does not quickly take out 50.30, the latest up move does look a little corrective to me. There is still a chance oil can make a lower low under yesterday's 48.4 (which is the alt count in red from yesterday's oil chart)

[riander5]

In Yamana and LABU, as well as baytex but I am worried about crude correcting a bit

[oster]

Anyone suggest some canadian crude etf's?

[bjstare]

HOD (bear crude, 2x), HOU (bull crude, 2x)

[KappaSigma]

This Brexit got me going, do I cash out or stay!?! Chances are it does not happen and see a market rally but if it does happen potential to pick up stock on a temporary correction. Hmmmmm

[el_fefes]

Half position? That's what I"ve done... I'm in USLV and YRI but do have some cash on the side just in case.

[SilverRex]

does Brexit vote have a few hours left before it closes?

[el_fefes]

They close at 3 pm our time/ 10pm London time

[s_havinga]

Jumped back into MEG yesterday at 6.53 put a stop in at 6.85 so worst case, I'll get my 5% if we get some more upside tomorrow I'll raise my stop limit.

Still sitting on some TBE that i picked up at .065 had a chance to sell at .075 but missed it.

ESN took a nice jump today (finally) Still way down on that one due to some poor decisions a year or so ago but I averaged down a few weeks back at .6 so that position is doing well at least.

I just can't stay away for the energy sector. I see too much upside in the next year or two that the potential keeps hooking me back in.

[bspot]

LABU with a pretty convincing day. I wouldn't be suprised with another big day tomorrow given Bremain.

I'm still sticking with MEG, 6.20 to now 7.00.

Really miners have been dragging my portfolio down the last couple days, but if a Brexit surprise occurs that will all reverse pretty quickly. Glad to not have to worry either way. If gold pulls back hard, I'll just wait it out.

EDIT: Gold down, JNUG closes green :rofl:

[bjstare]

^JNUG and DUST are so awful at tracking gold price in comparison to accuracy of UWTI/DWTI crude. I just can't bring myself to buying those gold funds haha.

I'm in to YRI today on the premise that bremain vote is already priced into gold after the past few days, so downside is limited. If we have brexit surprise, then $$$.

I think Brexit results are slated to come out 3am our time or something. You can be sure it's the first thing I'm checking tmw AM.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by el_fefes
They close at 3 pm our time/ 10pm London time

It's a 6hr time change... And results won't be complete till all the territories vote... So 7am gmt, or 1am here

[dirtsniffer]

dbl post.

[dirtsniffer]

looking forward to the results.

[oster]

Predicting they vote to stay, hoping a jump in crude tmrw.

In HOU @ 10.18

Still waiting on TBE, I got in at .055, after two 1 day extensions on the rolling credit, waiting for the news in about an hour, but I wouldnt be surprised with another extension. :dunno:

[riander5]

Brexit failed? Thats what im reading

edit: telegraph are idiots that saw one ridings results and thought it was for the country lol

I still bet they stay

[bspot]

After hours is looking crazy.

[bspot]

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

Live results.

It's crazy watching this. As leave leads, JNUG fires up and LABU down. As remain leads, they switch spots.

As of now "leave" leads. I thought stay would take it for sure, and may be surprised in the morning.

[bball2]

The £ after the Sunderland results:

https://twitter.com/World_First/status/746120874454097921/photo/1

:eek:

[bspot]

Man. This sucks. I was really set up for remain. Any advice for peeling off gold positions on the inevitable spike? It seems like things like this always lead to an overreaction that is then corrected.

Edit: Remain surging. This is like watching sports with a huge bet down :rofl:

[bspot]

Jesus christ... gold at $1316 :rofl:

I dont even know what to do tomorrow. Let it ride til next week, or peel off some JNUG and turn it in for some discount LABU??

[ickyflex]

Crude down like 2.35

[bjstare]

Fuck ya. Hope gold keeps going, put 20% of my Tfsa into YRI at the end of the day

[littledan]

whats the play tomorrow morning? I pulled 80% of my portfolio back into cash today

[SilverRex]

Im speechless

Did not expect the gov would allow leave to win. Not unless this is part of an agenda towards one world order and currency

Its just too ironic gold is ready for a Wave 3 power rally and Brexit was the catalyst.

Its much easier to carry a trade gradually but with such a strong move i might just have to consider taking some profit off the table

My portfolio is 100% in the gold sector :nut:

[oster]

^ nice!!

Any bull forex ETF's for the pound you guys recommend?

[riander5]

Well thank goodness I put 30% tfsa into Yamana to hedge against my other stocks that will lose lol

[SilverRex]

I expect once the dust settles us dollar will head back down and so the stock market Will rebound. Potentially there would be lots of discounted stocks if tomorrows opens a panic sell off

If this is indeed the catalyst for gold stocks to move in wave 3 of 3 then i expect gdx to at the very least hit over 30 and wave 5 towards 32-35

[ercchry]

Wooooo! Doubled up my gold play this afternoon!

[bball2]

Golds up to 1360 and here I am holding on to NUGT :-D

[bspot]

I'm going to regret holding my MEG.

I'm 25% miners, and half of that 3x ETF.

Only sitting on a small amount of cash. I was convinced they'd stay and id be holding everything. I did not expect a shopping opportunity. I think I almost have to take some profits from gold to take advantage.

I wouldn't be shocked if LABU was down 15-20% at some point tomorrow.

[yipb]

What would be some good stocks to pick up tomorrow as a result of brexit?

[bspot]

Holy hell. Canadian dollar getting slaughtered vs USD. That will help with the US holdings nicely and hopefully help MEG.

[SilverRex]

I think it is worth coverting some gold investment into non gold ones if you see a great discount today or the next few days especially if one belives in a balanced portfolio

[bspot]

JNUG up 30% pre market :rofl:

[bball2]

Originally posted by SilverRex
I think it is worth coverting some gold investment into non gold ones if you see a great discount today or the next few days especially if one belives in a balanced portfolio

:werd: Going to close off my NUGT / TVIX positions and rebalance into Canadian oil / US biotech. Will keep holding Barrick to see how much further gold can go.

[bspot]

Are you guys going to insta-dump the ETFs? Assuming a massive selloff at open?

[SilverRex]

ok lets look at oil after such an emotional coaster this morning.

right from the get go I have to say it will take 2-3 years before UK gets all the paperwork to officially leave the EU, until then, things could still change. so yesterday's vote does not have any direct impact rather than investor's panic mindset.

the uncertainty causes sell off and flooding into the gold sector.

right now as long as oil's cycle low at 46 is not breached. I will see this as a good pull back (a significant one) which means.. all discounted energy stocks will be a great pickup starting today.

confirmation that this fallout is corrective still is to see price get back above wave A above 48.5

oil could be trading sideways until the nerves settle. again people will all forget about the Brexit a week from now.

if and when oil takes out 46, then I still only see a larger degree wave C under 46 that will quickly be recovered. the next support zone is 44-45 and I think that is as far as she goes. which is showed in the red alt count


http://i.imgur.com/dNHR2xf.png

[bspot]

virtual brokers is choking. Can't sell. This is brutal.

I officially need a new brokerage. This is utter bullshit. Recommendations?

[bjstare]

I can't sell either, fuck me.

[Nova316]

Bspot are you trying to sell MEG?
It opened at 6.33 at 6.77 now so its rising and balancing out
LABU is a different story tho

[bspot]

My orders seem to be going through despite the errors.

It's pretty terrifying though, as I just make about $20k in transactions completely blind. I saw my margin go up, and that's the only thing that indicated my sale may have worked.

I also tried twice. I sure as hell hope I didn't short sell some JNUG at 200. Well, that would probably be ok, but I'd like to know about it at least.

I'm hoping when I can finally see some transactions I sold a bunch of JNUG, bought a bunch of MEG and LABU. We shall see.

EDIT: All I see so far is I got out of JNUG at $204. Could have been wayyyy worse.

[bspot]

Originally posted by Nova316
Bspot are you trying to sell MEG?
It opened at 6.33 at 6.77 now so its rising and balancing out
LABU is a different story tho

I'm trying to buy more MEG and LABU.

MEG at $6.3X and LABU at $26 would have made my day. It doesn't look like any of my buy orders went through. Huge missed opportunity.

At least Virtual Brokers will go out of business after this...

[bjstare]

None of my orders went through. great.

[GT.....O?]

Originally posted by bspot


I'm trying to buy more MEG and LABU.

MEG at $6.3X and LABU at $26 would have made my day. It doesn't look like any of my buy orders went through. Huge missed opportunity.

At least Virtual Brokers will go out of business after this...

Don't feel bad, for me at least, TD shit the bed and even logging in on my phone and i missed out on everything i wanted to buy.... pretty pissed

[bspot]

VB as well? That is brutal. They better offer a few years of free trades or I'm gone. Shit like this can represent pretty huge sums of lost money. I'm already down a couple grand compared to what I would have been with a functioning trading platform.

[SilverRex]

ok now focusing on gold.

looking at the miners via gdx.

here is the fun part.

I am not planning to sell anything until gdx at least touches 30. despite obvious profit taking this morning with wild swings in this sector. Here is why.

EW can some time a great way to give projection and min targets.

based on the EW community. the recent rise from 21.94 to 26.9 was wave 1 follow by a wave 2 correction. if this is the beginning of a wave 3 (of 3) then price should not give back all of today's gains. second, wave 3 has should equal or usually more than wave 1. if wave 1 gave us 5 pts. I expect 25 wave 2 low + 5=30. This is a bare min target that I think gdx will reach in the coming weeks if not days.

Second if this is indeed wave 3 which is the most powerful leg up. The recognition stage that everyone in the world realizes gold is where the money is going to flow to. then looking back at the entire rise from January. which was about 15.5 and if wave II at 21.94 was the low to setup the next leg up. then wave 3 potentially will give us at least 21.94+15.5= about 37.5

so my own strategy. I will not be selling any miners until I see gdx get into the 30s. and will atempt to take more profit if it hits the high 30s. there will be wave 4s etc.

http://i.imgur.com/FCRRekx.png

[bjstare]

Originally posted by GT.....O?


Don't feel bad, for me at least, TD shit the bed and even logging in on my phone and i missed out on everything i wanted to buy.... pretty pissed

I'm with TD as well. For now.

[GT.....O?]

Originally posted by cjblair


I'm with TD as well. For now.

I couldn't even log in on my laptop, and my phone was brutally slow, so i know it wasn't my internet connection.

Same issues?

[el_fefes]

bought some HOU... Holding my USLV/YRI go gold!

[bjstare]

Originally posted by GT.....O?


I couldn't even log in on my laptop, and my phone was brutally slow, so i know it wasn't my internet connection.

Same issues?

I was logged in before market opened, so I had no problem with that. But I wanted to put a sell order in for YRI shortly after open, and it just gave me an error and a 1-800 number to call. I bet they have so many angry people yelling at them this morning haha

[SilverRex]

gold has two very important resistance 38% retrace and the downtrendline. I was warning this area gold will not break this on first pass.

in all likelihood after being over bought, I expect gold to hold above 1300, consolidate (wave 4) then make a higher high next week

http://i.imgur.com/S1lAozQ.png

[SilverRex]

i might of been tempted to covert some gold profit into energy/biotech this morning. but the swings are too fast. will sit tight. if market makes a second attempt towards the low of the session I might try again

[bball2]

No issues with Interactive Brokers this morning :thumbsup:

Got out of NUGT at $119, opened at $125 but fell pretty quick to $112, so captured some profits and got out.

Surprisingly TVIX fell hard after opening up 35%, wasn't able to lock in profits so might hold onto that for the day to see if there's any more movement.

Purchased a couple options on GILD, rest just holding on to as cash.

[ercchry]

Closed out dgc options for 80% gain... Pretty happy with that, will see if they fall a bit today and maybe rebuy

[SilverRex]

i expect gold to close green today which means the weekly chart will look strong. once investor have time to chew on this, more money will only flow into this sector.

I expect not to see under 1300 gold. so try to think ahead that the current level will only become support once gold makes new high yet again in the coming days/weeks

we are still early in this intermediate cycle for gold, plenty of time left for it to run away sort of speak.

[ercchry]

Yeah, dgc was up almost 10% today and is already fallen below 9%... I'm going to give it a bit more time and rebuy... Not only locking in a bit of money but also moving from July to August expiry

[bspot]

So want to put some cash back into miners from my JNUG..... when to pull the trigger? Still have a bunch of miners, so ok with trying to time this a bit.

[SilverRex]

nothing fancy about this move. clearly 3 waves up currently consolidating wave 4. if everything runs it's script, we should see wave v higher

as long as wave i at 25.5-25.6 does not get broken. then I say continue to hold for more gains.

of course nothing is ever 100% certain. normally I would have an alt count suggesting price under 25 (if this 3 waves up cannot produce a 5th wave higher) but somehow I feel we should not see under 25 again after what happen in UK. I would not say never but it would mean big money intentionally wants to drive it down. bottom line. big dips are a buy in this sector period.

http://i.imgur.com/JBn8LEs.png

[bspot]

Well, I'm balls deep in LABU. Here goes nothing:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_96b3bfd927ff7b9cb32a68e2b103d2b4.png

[SilverRex]

well market is at a critical area any drop lower could induce another wave of panic selling due to technical breach.

while I still see any big drops as a good buying in the long haul I am sure those holding are crapping their pants and those waiting just couldnt pull the trigger if they feel it has more to drop.

never a great feeling :drama:

[theken]

Which area of gold should I throw some money at? I've been following some biotech stuff but seems pretty volatile

[riander5]

Hmm not sure what to do here.

Considering going 50/50 gold and oil

Do i pull trigger now and just wait or try to time an entry.. what to do what to do

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5
Hmm not sure what to do here.

Considering going 50/50 gold and oil

Do i pull trigger now and just wait or try to time an entry.. what to do what to do

I'm already in gold and oil. Probably going to add more to oil, or something else in USD (double down on my FB or AMZN or something), but similarly, I can't decide whether to do it today or wait for more hurt next week.

Is this panic selloff going to correct itself right away or get worse? That's the magic question.

[riander5]

Originally posted by cjblair


I'm already in gold and oil. Probably going to add more to oil, or something else in USD (double down on my FB or AMZN or something), but similarly, I can't decide whether to do it today or wait for more hurt next week.

Is this panic selloff going to correct itself right away or get worse? That's the magic question.

I might stay in LABU, brexit caused a massive drop, but XBI and LABU are both just now touching longer term trendlines, and are very oversold. Ill set a SL risking another 5% of my LABU position, but hoping for another 10 dollar run or 50% profit potential.

Im only down about 6% on LABU now anyways... but would have preferred a Bremain and watch LABU rise today instead of fall. Oh well.

Wheres KappaSigma? Load up on baytex lol

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5


I might stay in LABU, brexit caused a massive drop, but XBI and LABU are both just now touching longer term trendlines, and are very oversold. Ill set a SL risking another 5% of my LABU position, but hoping for another 10 dollar run or 50% profit potential.

Im only down about 6% on LABU now anyways... but would have preferred a Bremain and watch LABU rise today instead of fall. Oh well.

Wheres KappaSigma? Load up on baytex lol

Yeah a little LABU bet probably isn't the worst idea, with a tight stop.

Kappa is probably hanging out in wallstreet bets, talking about throwing around $100k here and there :poosie:

[bspot]

Where are you guys setting your LABU stops? I really should be just about bottomed now if there is any near term hope for it.

I am so worried about a brief crazy swing knocking out my stop and then taking off.

[riander5]

https://s32.postimg.org/ne0oebrc5/Capture.jpg

I will probably set my stop just below the trendline... maybe 5-6% below as the last time LABU touched it, it penetrated it by that much intra day before coming back above.

[SilverRex]

“Britain’s vote to leave the European Union has left many scrambling to determine the impact on markets and various sectors. But one sector that is unlikely to be affected is biotech, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Yee. He said in a Friday note that he expects biotech to be “generally somewhat insulated from EU economic uncertainty,” since biotech drugs are life-saving, non-discretionary products and thus won’t face less EU business, the industry has little interaction with the UK and the sector is generally less economically sensitive and less elastic.”

[bspot]

I expected LABU to stay flat after the big drop to start the day, and show slight recovery or at least stability as healthcare is often a safe haven for money during uncertainty.

Instead LABU is on a total death march right now, and I really wish I had been more patient with my cash. This could be ugly again on Monday.

[SilverRex]

well with all sectors breaking their key levels and some even out of a consolidation triangle to the downside. market looks pretty bad right now. if it does not reverse course quickly, it could set off more technical selling starting next week.

you can always find reasons to buy just about any stock and similarly you can panic as well.

looking at IBB chart instead of xbi, because ibb looks worse, clearly it has broken the neckline for a Head and shoulder drop.

no matter how bullish biotech yes, everyone in the world sees the same pattern. and the lack of buying + fund selling after seeing this chart will be an issue.

so we are at a critical juncture for biotech considering seasonal swings indicate a strong 2nd half for this sector starting in July. (we are 1 week away) somehow I feel if biotech does drop down, it will be hard and fast and over. everyone has been calling this sector being in some sort of bear flag ready to push towards 180-200 area. if that did happen I will be buying labu with both feet then.

but for those holding or wondering, my take is, rather be safe than sorry. try not to get too bullish on biotech until it can reclose back above the neckline. this can really go either way. Who knows maybe the Fed or EU will announce some sort of QE next week if they (PPT) fails to reverse the panic.

http://i.imgur.com/kWce3Qq.png

[bjstare]

Does anyone have a suggestion for a US listed oil company that is decently volatile (like a MEG, POU, BTE)? I'm just thinking of not using UWTI/DWTI.

[SilverRex]

lets look at the daily chart for gold.

pending any outright collapse or reversal the count so far in this wave 3 of 3 has begun.
1199 to 1315 was wave 1
1259 to ???? I am targeting 1381 next week since there are a couple of things that could hold gold's advance. the 38% retracement resistance of the entire 1900 to 1046 down move. and the perfect rising channel both intersecting this area.

we will see where the miners are when gold do reach this area then some profit taking will be ordered. let it consolidate in a wave iv (which will most likely see price fall back to today's level) yes you heard me. the current level will become support and most likely wave iv buy back zone (if) gold does punch higher

http://i.imgur.com/bDGSDK5.png

[bspot]

Vicious close to the low of the day on LABU.

XBI sitting on the 200 week MA, which has provided support since February.

[SilverRex]

anyways here is the current count for spx. initially wave A would have been the low which (if Brexit would fail) to start moving higher bullishly. but the sudden turn of events has created or shall I say forced an sell off that now means we are headed into an intermediate cycle low (sort like how gold did when it it 1199... once the low is in. it will rebound just like gold did.

Right now wave 'c' which is usually scary would make for an ideal bottom if it can just dive under wave iv (remember how price tends to retrace the previous wave 3/4 zone) I am expecting a bit more selling pressure next week and it should begin to reverse.

an alt count could suggest a lower low down to the 1900-1950 area. either scenario I expect a bounce next week after a new low is struck under 2025. Then we will see if the bounce is corrective or not to determine if a lower low lies ahead.

and no, I do not believe we are headed for a 2008 crash

http://i.imgur.com/Fve2F8Z.png

[SilverRex]

just wanted to add to the last chart on spx.

while I expect the extreme oversold should result into bargain hunting and a bounce some time next week. The key will be to see if the stock market can hold it's head above it's May low. If it does, then there is still a chance that the recent sell off is simply just pure panic which would give hope we can still see an all time high sooner rather than later.

However if the May's low gives away, then watch out for a prolonged summer correction and any strong rally could be corrective only to be driven lower.

if

the red path comes into play. this will create a lot more selling pressure across all sectors even miners.

same thing with oil. If 46 oil gives away. then obviously thanks to the Brexit, it has delayed it's advance and further extending the recent correction from the 51.6 high to possibly testing the 42-45 area for an alt wave C low.

There fore the coming week will be very important. because many energy stocks are barely hanging on to their rising channel support. If oil does plunge to a lower low (under 46) it will technically trigger a new wave lower. Which means we could see both Meg and Bte in the 5s this summer.

Over all I still expect 55-60 oil, it may just be delayed due to the surprise twist this week. I suggest not to get overly exposed or leveraged and have cash on hand as there could be better bargains in a couple of weeks time.

and while I remain bullish on gold, it may have came too fast and too soon. If we have learned from each gap up in the miners. every strong open appears to trigger a profit taking event. So if gold does push higher next week, I may also consider taking profit and reducing exposure just to give myself a few more options in case we get a surprise to the downside (like what the Brexit event did)

[oster]

Havent had much response on my TBE comments but it is turning into quite a shit show...

They accepted a buy out: 6 cents a share 14 cents on the dollar for debentures. This is resulting in some very unhappy people, esp. debt holders who got the shaft. Word is debt holders are going to vote against the deal in august.... Not to mention management holds millions of shares and zero debt, and they are keeping their jobs.

I am in the money on both, unlike many, but it's definitely interesting to watch.



"Heavy oil producer Twin Butte Energy Ltd. (TBE) lost one cent to five cents on 15.5 million shares, after proposing an unpopular solution to its financial woes. The solution's name is Reignwood Resources, which is linked to China's Reignwood Group. Reignwood is offering six cents for each Twin Butte's shares and an astounding 14 cents on the dollar for its debentures. That means over $21-million will go to shareholders and less than $12-million will go to debentureholders. The face value of the debentures is $85-million, making up a significant percentage of Twin Butte's total net debt of $294-million, most of the rest of which is about $209-million drawn on credit facilities. For weeks now the company's lenders have been extending the facilities' expiry dates (sometimes by just one day at a time) in order to give Twin Butte more time to complete its nearly seven-month-old "strategic review," meaning its hunt for a suitor. Now it has a suitor, but investors are not at all happy. A six-cent offer is a poor outcome for a stock that four years ago traded above $3. It also means that only those shareholders who bought within the last two weeks or so have any chance of making money. As for debentureholders, they must feel that shareholders should not get any money, and certainly not twice the money that debentureholders are getting. Twin Butte's board says it has unanimously determined that the offer is fair to both shareholders and debentureholders. It may be worth noting at this point that the seven members of Twin Butte's board own 9.25 million shares and absolutely no debentures. Management members also own plenty of shares and virtually no debentures (one of them does control $720 in debentures, according to SEDI). The management members will also be fortunate enough to keep their jobs following the takeover.

The stock closed today at five cents, below the six-cent offer price, signalling skepticism that the deal will go through -- or, more likely, that the debentureholders will let it go through. The deal needs the approval of two-thirds of shareholders and debentureholders at a meeting to be held in mid-August. That will be quite a day. Coincidentally, it will be around two years exactly to the day after a contentious meeting was held by one of the clearest cautionary tales for debt-laden producers. In mid-August, 2014, an Alberta producer called Arcan Resources Ltd. held a meeting for its shareholders and debentureholders to vote on a proposed takeover by the private Aspenleaf Resources. The terms of the deal included a payment of about 82.5 cents on the dollar for debentureholders, a price that some of them publicly decried as insulting. The takeover was soundly rejected by all the holders at the meeting. Later in 2014, the desperate Arcan converted most of its debt into equity, giving debentureholders about 6,667 shares for every $1,000 in debentures. In 2015, Aspenleaf returned with an 11-cent-a-share offer, and this time it was victorious. Had Aspenleaf's original offer been accepted, debentureholders would have received $825 per $1,000; under the second offer, they got about $733 (11 cents times 6,667 shares). Still, that is more than five times what Twin Butte's debentureholders are being offered. A more recent takeover target, Long Run Exploration Ltd. (LRE: $0.51), is also promising debentureholders much more money; its suitor is offering 75 cents on the dollar. That Twin Butte's debentureholders are being offered so little does not bode well."

[SilverRex]

everyone got their coffee for Monday? lets see how this week goes. My own expectation is to see 1 or 2 more days of selling follow by a strong rebound (looking for someone (perhaps Obama on Wed) to calm the markets)

let start with oil.

initially oil was looking great after putting in a bottom at 46. As of this writing, oil is now flirting with the rising channel neckline just under 47. again I have to remind everyone that all chart patterns are only about 60-70% accurate. however it does warrant caution this week. Because a classic head and shoulder pattern has developed, if neckline breaks, it could ring in a downside target as low as 42.

So lets just say, the worse possible outcome imo would be to see oil retest 42 oil, even 41 because we have our 200 day moving average there. this makes an ideal bottom as oil really has not retraced 38% for quite a long time and frankly is quite due for one.

I cant imagine what this will do to the energy stocks if oil does drop to low 40s. Therefore until oil confirms an up move and negate the H&S pattern by as of today. take out price above 50 (down trend line in green) it is best not to be loaded up the wood works with your energy shares.

Somehow I wanted to believe the Brexit vote is overblown. it will take 2-3 years before anything with substance actually can be developed. I just do not see how that can cause a mass panic departure away from the market for a prolong periods. all it will take is some positive announcement by Central bank and before you know it, the market will forget and move on.

which means, potentially, price could produce a false breakdown. This is more probable because the market loves to generate false signals and ruins everyone's party. The best scenario to cause maximum pain for investor is to see the neckline break only to be recovered follow by a slow rise towards an upside breakout to negate the bearish H&S pattern. this will kill both longs and shorts.

Therefore watch the price action closely if it does break under 46 and see how it reacts.

http://i.imgur.com/8VfFGpL.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex


http://i.imgur.com/Fve2F8Z.png

for the spx. it appears unless things suddenly changes, it is ready to open lower than the May low. The red path may be in play here.

while I still expect a good rebound this week, it is best to take advantage of any rally and view that as a corrective bounce to get out or reduce your exposure. I would try to stay in cash and wait for better opportunities.

[SilverRex]

lastly I wanted to look at the miners. I wanted to focus on the juniors today. if you look at the bull run back in 2008/09 around this time. Juniors actually performed much better than the big caps for some reason. Because during that period there was a correction that took place between now until middle of july. Juniors held up extremely well while big caps saw a significant drawdown. Not sure if history will repeat itself but the coming weeks/months will be a very significant move for this sector.

lets draw your attention to the gdxj (junior miners) as you can see last friday thanks to the Brexit vote, we just saw another new 52 week high. what concerns me is that despite gold's strong 60 dollar surge. it felt as though the mining complex was unable to create the same rally. in fact it were sold into strength. for starters there are a few key resistance holding this sector back however looking back how the sector behaves, one can argue (see the red boxes) that everytime miners broke out a higher high, it would fall back down for a couple of weeks before it was ready to push much higher and sustain it.

while I believe the biggest drawdown came in May. I am going to think we may see some sideways grinding lower similar to the March period. So if the miners were to open green today. I may try to take some profit and reduce my positions. I am however not going to completely exit like I did back in March which has caused me some very significant gains. But I will reduce my position as there is a good chance the sector may still need to take a breather before it is ready to challenge much higher prices.

Again, technically if this is what's going to happen then we will see gdxj break below 40.40 and gdx below 25.60.

http://i.imgur.com/iX2o2yZ.png

[SilverRex]

while xbi and ibb hasnt made new lows that was set in Feb. many individual stocks in this sector has. looks like the Brexit vote has created a final blood bath phase in this sector. I see similarities between what is happening here and what happened when miners suddenly dropped in a final low in december. It will be interesting to see where the bottom lands and wait for a swing low. This could create some very exciting opportunity once this entire stock market correction comes to an end.

[ickyflex]

Markets just getting reemed

[v8killa]

BTE is getting killed for me

[max_boost]

Interesting to see if will drop 2000pts to th 11600 low. :D

[bjstare]

I got rid of my YRI @6.77 today, turns out that was a great move. Love when I guess right :rofl: