Official Short-term Investments Thread

[KappaSigma]

Im very tentative now on oil in short term. This gasoline glut got me worried. After summer, i could see oil in 30s. Trying to stay as liquid as possible and only investing in market if the market overacts on a daily basis or if a new material macro event occurs (ie like the fort mac fires)

[SilverRex]

this should be a market moving week with the FOMC on Wed.

current expectation is gold should resume it's upward trend once it bottoms some time this week. most probable area is around 1300-1308.

and nothing has changed for oil (visit my last chart), ever since it continue to struggle staying above 46.10, it is quite obvious it wants to go low before going high. the most likely area of support is in the 42s.

best approach is to wait for a daily swing in either oil or gold on the daily chart as the earliest sign that bottom is in.

[SilverRex]

right now gold is near the rising trendline. but in studying daily cycles. it is often that price will break the trendline before it bottoms. that is why there is still a good chance it can break this trendline and head a bit lower for a divergence. the 50 DMA is just under it.

it is the very reason why I dropped half of my Jnug position which I bought at 201 and sold at 232 hoping to be able to buy back again if the above scenario unfolds.

otherwise confirmation is to wait for a daily swing low to form just like previous bottoms (circle green)

http://i.imgur.com/d34dx05.png

[SilverRex]

a quick look at GDX(miners)

right now count wise expecting once wave c bottoms here or possibly a panic sell down to 27, the next rally should take us to a higher high into the 32-34 range.

Even though price can hit 26 to fill the gap left in June and still rally significantly, it would however change the count which I do not prefer.

critical mass (or I should say technical damage to this bull trend will begin if price break below 25 which will turn the entire drop near 31 into an extended intermediate decline targeting 22 or lower.

http://i.imgur.com/QGAtrPc.png

[KappaSigma]

Picked up some baytex low 6.60s. Hopefully to flip quickly.

[bspot]

I dumped all oil holdings this morning. Hoping to re-enter lower.

[SilverRex]

if oil can push another 2% lower close to 42.5, might pickup a few energy shares. bought back a small position in Jnug. will buy more if it dives under 200 (sweet spot is 180-190)

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Picked up some baytex low 6.60s. Hopefully to flip quickly.

Made by 3 cent flip or 200.

Bid to rebuy lower again.

[SilverRex]

metals are trying to mount a comeback. let see how far she can go

[bspot]

I jumped in LABD with a tight stop. GILD earnings could bring things around tonight, but it's looking pretty bearish to me.

Grabbed a little DWTI for beer money.

Bought some JNUG for 210 and 199 and added to USLV at 23.89.

Sitting 1/3 cash otherwise. Things feel weird. Should be some good upcoming opportunity in oil at least.

[KappaSigma]

Hoping for a small bounce in baytex this afternoon or overall bounce in oil for tomorrow trading day. Bpught a position. Mid 6.50s.

[bspot]

Grabbed a little MEG and flipped to UWTI. Will see if 42s hold.

Bottom fishing :nut:

[SilverRex]

finally sold my sil.v in the high 1.70s, while gold is nearing a bottom a new uptrend could push this stock 50% higher. But the lack of volume scares me. holding this way too long.

saving my cash in case Jnug opens up a window in the 160-180 area. Otherwise sitting tight until FOMC

[bspot]

Tri-star Doji on XBI.

Consensus seems to be that GILD earnings will beat expectations. I'm hoping that is priced in and am sticking LABD for the time being.

Weak volume on XBI and weak action. Let's see if I finally make something off of LABD.

[bball2]

5%+ initial drop by GILD afterhours but seems to be climbing back a bit now

[SilverRex]

oil is moving beautifully to this final 5 wave down leg. looking for a bottom some where in around 42 at the moment. The safest strategy has always been to wait until it forms a daily swing low on the daily chart and that requires price to break above 44.37 (if it were to bottom today)

FOMC is tomorrow so that potentially could give oil the fuel it needs to reverse if it drops the USD dollar with a dovish outlook

same chart I posted last week.

http://i.imgur.com/Hl82CJQ.png

[SilverRex]

gold is battling hard. unless it can breakout today, there is still a possible 1 last dip under wave c for a 5 pt bottoming pattern.

so remain flexible in both direction

http://i.imgur.com/LalJ5JF.png

[bspot]

Hoping for a massive XBI rejection at 60 or I'm sure on the wrong side of this one. GILD missing and lowering guidance, the DNC ripping on bio, I did not expect a green day for this sector.

[SilverRex]

with oil hitting my minimum 42.5 target, I am taking 2 small stakes in BTE/MEG

energy stocks is in a technical free fall dropping below it's previous swing low meg under 6 and bte under 6.5, however once oil finds a bottom, it would turn this into an ABC bottom. again how typical it is that wave c looks scarier than wave A. when it is mental-ly difficult to pull the trigger is when the bottom is around the corner.

I am not looking for a huge oil play, just small enough to give my portfolio some diversification without causing any trouble in case i made the wrong outlook on oil.

still expecting 60-65 oil once it finds it's bottom

[SilverRex]

we have possible swing low in miners. if gdx can break above 29.11, it may put away the bottom and new leg has begun but still keep an open mind that there is always the chance of one more lower low to take everyone out

[ercchry]

Yeah nflx! Sold that, and basically recovered the losses I had from tbe!

[bball2]

Originally posted by riander5
NFLX down time to load up on calls now!!
Did you end up buying any? Would be great to be holding some NFLX calls today :thumbsup:

[ercchry]

Originally posted by bball2

Did you end up buying any? Would be great to be holding some NFLX calls today :thumbsup:

had $90 calls @ 2.88, sold at 5.35... no need to be greedy :D

[SilverRex]

miners are strong today, normally it would tank as soon as gold drops a dollar, instead it keeps grinding higher and higher.

I think many people are buying in betting on gold to jump during tomorrow's FOMC

[SilverRex]

http://i.imgur.com/o5XLGcb.png

[SilverRex]

gdxj is above 46.50 to seal the bottom

[bball2]

Apple up ~5%, Twitter down ~10% after earnings report. Was pessimistic on both reports so stayed out of the action there today.

[bspot]

Pretty sure I'm on the wrong side of the LABU/LABD train.

Anyone holding LABU? Potential for a monster day tomorrow.

I'm assuming LABD will gap down hard below my stop. Could be nasty. I didn't expect XBI to pop $60 so easily after 3 days of weak price action.

[riander5]

Originally posted by bball2

Did you end up buying any? Would be great to be holding some NFLX calls today :thumbsup:

Yea I'm still holding. Up 55%

Only bought 2k worth will prob well half soon and let the rest ride for a month based on technicals

[bball2]

Originally posted by ercchry


had $90 calls @ 2.88, sold at 5.35... no need to be greedy :D


Originally posted by riander5


Yea I'm still holding. Up 55%

Only bought 2k worth will prob well half soon and let the rest ride for a month based on technicals

Nice! :thumbsup: I'm still holding a bunch of NFLX stock and still pretty optimistic about it. I didn't think they bottomed out though and missed the opportunity for some cheap calls.

[SilverRex]

oil inventory, FOMC. market is going to move.
gold surging now. bottom in miners may be in. unless surprises during FOMC annoucement.

[el_fefes]

Man UWTI just dropped off a cliff. I wonder what happened...

Edit: inventories up by 1.7 MM barrels

[SilverRex]

bad oil report. pretty much gave back all the gains from yesterday's low.

oil did not have any confirmation that low is in unless it could crack 44.37 yesterday or 43.28 today. it came within pennies at 43.20 only to get knocked down by the negative oil report.

just sit tight and see where the bottom is. could continue to grind lower until FOMC which I am hoping will be dollar negative hence rebounding all commodities

[SilverRex]

there is double support under 42 with 41.88 being the 38% retracement of the entire oil runup this year and the 50% retracement of the 35-51 rally leg 2 rally.

that would make the perfect landing support imo

[SilverRex]

with gold breaking the downtrend line today (red) and producing a swing low on the daily chart. I expect the bottom is in. The only exception is the FOMC. that could. still create an emotional move in either direction.

do not be surprised if gold (with a negative FOMC annoucement) pushing it down for one final low and tag the 50DMA at 1305. if that happens I think it is a great buying opportunity to jump on board on the pending up swing for the next couple of weeks.

other than a 10% stake of my holdings in oil the rest is all in the gold sector. looking for a target in the double upper channel between 1390-1438. then we probably get another DCL sell off just like the one we just experienced, then onto 1500+

http://i.imgur.com/iRnTNSF.png

[SilverRex]

looking at gdx right now. we have 5 waves up off the bottom from monday's low. looking like it is in a wave 2 correction. Either correction has ended. or one more possible sell off into the wave iii/iv range.

the chart certainly has the setup and prepping for a big run it is now up to the FOMC announcement to deliver the catalyst.

http://i.imgur.com/ILQ6Zni.png

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
with gold breaking the downtrend line today (red) and producing a swing low on the daily chart. I expect the bottom is in. The only exception is the FOMC. that could. still create an emotional move in either direction.

do not be surprised if gold (with a negative FOMC annoucement) pushing it down for one final low and tag the 50DMA at 1305. if that happens I think it is a great buying opportunity to jump on board on the pending up swing for the next couple of weeks.

other than a 10% stake of my holdings in oil the rest is all in the gold sector. looking for a target in the double upper channel between 1390-1438. then we probably get another DCL sell off just like the one we just experienced, then onto 1500+

http://i.imgur.com/iRnTNSF.png

And what are your core gold holdings?

GDX, YRI, Kinross, JNUG?

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
there is double support under 42 with 41.88 being the 38% retracement of the entire oil runup this year and the 50% retracement of the 35-51 rally leg 2 rally.

that would make the perfect landing support imo

Broke through both hah

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by ickyflex


Broke through both hah

sorry I miss typed. the two support is 41.88 and 41.50

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5


And what are your core gold holdings?

GDX, YRI, Kinross, JNUG?

i have been holding YRI and Kinross both 30% each since the low 5s.

30% in Jnug. had sil.v for 10% but sold that this week.

had silver dropped into the 18s, I would have gladly move into USLV

[SilverRex]

alright 8m till show time.

[SilverRex]

initial reaction was negative for gold and gdx moved down to the lower low wave c of 2 which was not a surprise.

now if gold mounts a come back, that would be bullish

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex


http://i.imgur.com/ILQ6Zni.png

text book wave c low.

cant stress how many times this happens. when price completes 5 waves, it typically makes a return to the previous wave 3/4 range. it touched where I marked wave 2 (red) to the tee.

lets see if she can gain some momentum and move higher from here

[bball2]

Here we go :D

[bball2]

Me last week:


Originally posted by bball2
@SilverRex, me holding NUGT right now :rofl:

http://i.imgur.com/c4jt321.png

But yeah, still optimistic about a reversal so I've been adding to my position today.

Me today:

http://i.imgur.com/QWRLzUq.jpg

[bspot]

This is the perfect example of how stop loss orders can just kill you. Thank god I didn't have one, but how many people's stops got wiped out by that dip and now leave them on the outside and pretty pissed off?

[ercchry]

Originally posted by bball2
Me last week:



Me today:

http://i.imgur.com/QWRLzUq.jpg

Well, let's hope for no freak gasoline fight fire in the next scene! :rofl:

I still have a way to go

[SilverRex]

Yamana is doing extremely well. it is only 2.3% away from making another new 52 week high. it held up so well during this correction. alot of the big miners are releasing earnings today and tomorrow. hopefully they can all beat expectation.

[bball2]

Originally posted by bspot
This is the perfect example of how stop loss orders can just kill you. Thank god I didn't have one, but how many people's stops got wiped out by that dip and now leave them on the outside and pretty pissed off?

http://i.imgur.com/Kkbhyvy.jpg

No kidding! That was one hell of a quick dip / reversal

[SilverRex]

if gold can close the week above 1338, then it really looks good for the first half in August that gold will continue to rise

for oil

confirmation requires a daily swing low by breaking 43.37 today or 43.20 tomorrow

[oster]

Anyone holding Kinross?

Picked up at the dip $6.35

[cloud7]

Wow quite a run for JNUG since noon.

[ercchry]

My DGC contracts are in the green finally! ....now how long to hold them for

[cloud7]

Originally posted by oster
Anyone holding Kinross?

Picked up at the dip $6.35

I have a small position left over from before as well as another small position of SMF.to. I should have gone in on JNUG like SilverRex though... I come back after lunch and it's up almost 20%.

[riander5]

Had my stoploss down like 9% and it got taken out. Fucking bullshit

Still made good money on kinross and yri though but left jnug gains on the table

[el_fefes]

Got into JNUG yesterday and out today. 15% gain.... big moves on this ETF. Making up for some of my losses on UWTI.

What's everyone's strategy for crude? I'm in BTE and HOU both sitting in the red -20% or so... sell now to avoid further loss? Or wait and see now that we've hit key supports...

[ickyflex]

Stupid Alaris Royalty, what a piss off

[bspot]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Got into JNUG yesterday and out today. 15% gain.... big moves on this ETF. Making up for some of my losses on UWTI.

What's everyone's strategy for crude? I'm in BTE and HOU both sitting in the red -20% or so... sell now to avoid further loss? Or wait and see now that we've hit key supports...

I'm at a total loss. Dumped MEG at 6.10 and got back in at 5.82 for a 1/2 position. Feeling dumb as I watch it drop like a rock. Played with UWTI a bit, had stops hit repeatedly with only one small gain in there.

It just seems like months of pain ahead for oil. Which probably means it's buying time.. haha.

[riander5]

Stupid fucking gold market manipulators

[ercchry]

If some big money moves into miners after hours and we open up another 5%... I wouldn't be upset... Would probably sell so I can move contract over to September

[bball2]

Darn definitely a bad call holding onto GPRO puts for the earnings. Went from like +40% to like -80%-90% tomorrow :banghead:

[bball2]

Or not? :confused: :D

I'll just have to wait till tomorrow I guess :rofl:

http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_59323828.?1469650727

[SilverRex]

US dollar is dropping like it should after topping and post FOMC. gold is moving like it should so not much to say about them other than just to hold on tight for a few weeks. 20-25 days.

for oil. oil has not confirmed any bottom yet. but this morning there is potential for a reversal.

RSI and MACD divergences showing up. a double bottom near 41.67 so far acting as support. The very first signs that a bottom may be in place is first price needs to get back above the 50DMA and down trendline by breaking and holding above 42.50 then if it can also produce a swing low on the daily by breaking above 43.20, I would say that will be a very good confirmation that the low may be in.

failure to produce upside confirmation would mean downside pressure remains and next new low will target 41.5 and 39

http://i.imgur.com/E6dHyjr.png

[SilverRex]

with oil continue to correct and grinding lower. it has finally dragged down energy stocks into a lower wave C low.

While I have one small position in bte. I will only add if it can hit the lower channel and near the 200DMA between 5.25-5.5 (5.35 is the 50% retracement of the 1.5-9 run)

nothing says it has to go there because price has already broken below wave a. now it is up to oil to find a bottom and it can reverse at any time.

I suspect both stock market and oil will bottom together and move up together

Meg is in a similar pattern. if bte hits the low 5s. I suspect Meg will test or break below 5.21 which has been my red bearish alt path I posted way back ago. I cant believe it is all playing out.

http://i.imgur.com/2I5HAPI.png

[ercchry]

Meg earnings today... Already down 5% out front... Should be interesting

Edit: oh, already released... Guess that explains it

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/energy/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/energy/meg-energy-reports-bigger-than-expected-loss-as-crude-slumps

[Meback]

How are you guys playing meg and bte?

N/M lol. didnt read.

[Vanish3d]

how safe is JNUG really?
Contemplating if I should pull profits, or add more...

[troyl]

Added more MEG shares and calls. :banghead:

[riander5]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
how safe is JNUG really?
Contemplating if I should pull profits, or add more...

How safe is a 3x leveraged etf? uhhh

[Vanish3d]

^Point taken

Looks like it's dropping anyways, so right answer would've been to lock profits

[SilverRex]

gold is in a healthy correction and profit taking. once that is completed, it will just reverse and continue to step higher over the next 20-25 days. nothing goes straight up

[theken]

I'm hoping Meg makes its way back up a little bit. I'm down quite a bit. Was going to sell while I was up....did not do that lol

[Manhattan]

Record low costs and near record production are all positive signs for MEG. Just couldn't realize a higher price which is out of their control. I'd pick up more at this point but it's not worth the risk just to average down a couple cents.

[riander5]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
^Point taken

Looks like it's dropping anyways, so right answer would've been to lock profits

Taking profits is never a L

look at it that way

Getting stopped out minutes before FOMC by market manipulation is. Still crusty about that. fucking retail investing is bs

[el_fefes]

Sold HOU at a ~20% loss, holding BTE and may wait for further pullback to average down... at least that has not decay.

My wife put her tax return on HOU as well. She's not gonna be a happy camper :drama:

At least i'm in the green on YRI and USLV.

[bjstare]

Anyone thinking of UWTI or HOU soon? I'll probably be thinking about that if WTI edges towards the $40 mark.

[ickyflex]

Anyone own Alaris? Entering or leaving lol

[KappaSigma]

I took a 5k loss on bte. Choked cause yestetday i missed a sell order by 2 cents minutes before eia which would have saved me. Oh well.

I think oil as more downside. Whether its warranted or not. Market sentiment seems very negative on oil and i prefer to wait until that turns around. Hoping oil hits mid 30s and baytex in 4 dollar range.

[bspot]

I've had this green channel line drawn on here since June. I really wish I had traded according to it.

In on LABD with a stop that will give this a chance to double top within a couple days. We shall see. The chart and hindsight again leaves me feeling foolish. During the run up there is always a point where it feels like this time it isn't going to make it and I take profits too early. I'll learn one day.

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_48a924ba53b6d75088ea46c7eb279d9b.png

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
gold is in a healthy correction and profit taking. once that is completed, it will just reverse and continue to step higher over the next 20-25 days. nothing goes straight up

What's your exit plan for JNUG? Last time I noticed you waited quite a bit longer than me to sell it and move to miners, and as a result I left a lot on the table.

[riander5]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Sold HOU at a ~20% loss, holding BTE and may wait for further pullback to average down... at least that has not decay.

My wife put her tax return on HOU as well. She's not gonna be a happy camper :drama:

At least i'm in the green on YRI and USLV.

Damn you guys get tax returns? Lucky

[Kloubek]

Good thing I sold my gpro right before the 13% gain over the last couple days.... Grrrr

Have a buy order for more baytex at 6. Still think that it is a good price for a long play, even if there is short term pain. But then, I play the market based on opinion, and not the fancy charts you guys tend to play with..... :)

[SilverRex]

while eventually oil will breakout of this handle/down channel. what ever you want to call it and make a move above 52. in the mean time, it will take a bit of work to get there.

alot of indicators are running oversold. I suspect regardless of direction, it will bounce soon. Even if we get a swing low, it would only provide a short term bottom and momentum for day traders. Key still require oil to break above 47.66 (as of today) but I think soon all resistance will line up heavily at the 46 area being the key resistance.

until then do not get too excited with oil because oil is currently in an ICL (intermediate) cycle which is usually painful. one should focus in the metals. because we just had a confirmation swing low occurred and it is beginning a new daily daily cycle that should run 20-25 days. any mistake will be corrected because you are in an uptrending market.

catching the knife in oil is a poor investor's mistake

http://i.imgur.com/y5ARpZN.png

[bball2]

Gold on a nice recovery path after the dip this morning :thumbsup:

[Vanish3d]

^ fkn rollercoaster.
I would've been stopped out no matter which direction i picked if I used stops today.

Let's hope it continues

[ercchry]

I really wish I dumped my miners yesterday and rebought today... Missed out pretty big

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
^ fkn rollercoaster.
I would've been stopped out no matter which direction i picked if I used stops today.

Let's hope it continues

I have come to learn stops are meant to be taken out. Stops hunting is real. happens more often than not.

I only use mental stops but some times that is equally challenging to pull the trigger.

anyways lets just ride the wave for a few weeks ;)

[bspot]

If found both stops and trying to hit short term swings just chew through any gains I make trading that way.

Patiently waiting for the right entry, and holding for at least a few weeks seems to give the best results for me.

I still get itchy when sitting in cash and break my own rules constantly though...

[GT.....O?]

Originally posted by bspot
I've had this green channel line drawn on here since June. I really wish I had traded according to it.

In on LABD with a stop that will give this a chance to double top within a couple days. We shall see. The chart and hindsight again leaves me feeling foolish. During the run up there is always a point where it feels like this time it isn't going to make it and I take profits too early. I'll learn one day.

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_48a924ba53b6d75088ea46c7eb279d9b.png

I've been thinking the same. Got in at ~27.00 and sitting at 43% profit.

Always seem to buy ahead/sell just after big dips and spikes. Very hard to trade this one.

Going to dump half my LABU position by the end of the day

[bball2]

Originally posted by SilverRex


I have come to learn stops are meant to be taken out. Stops hunting is real. happens more often than not.

I only use mental stops but some times that is equally challenging to pull the trigger.

anyways lets just ride the wave for a few weeks ;)
Yeah agreed, I've move towards setting up alarms / notifications for specific price points instead of stop buy/sell orders.

[bball2]

Edit: double post

[riander5]

Why cant we all just double our accounts and go out for beers together. why god why

[Khyron]

Originally posted by riander5
Why cant we all just double our accounts and go out for beers together. why god why

Because we all know that if the accounts doubled, we'd sit on it waiting for them to triple. :bigpimp:

[SilverRex]

gold is looking very corrective this past 10 hr or so. US dollar is finally dropping and looking very weak. it is only a matter of time until gold explodes higher.

oil sentiment is extremely bearish, which means a bounce is right around the corner. though the next big support is now at 39. For oil to generate a swing low it needs to break above 42.25

if oil was to suddenly sell off under 40, I suggest that is a very good entry. or a break above 42.25 which ever comes first

Typo: sorry the chart I was meant to say panic selling under 40.00 is a great buy

http://i.imgur.com/wL3FvQk.png

[SilverRex]

just wanted to post an updated US dollar chart. for those remember when I first posted this many months ago. I suggested that ever since it made the 50/200EMA death cross, the US dollar is on a new 3 year down cycle.

what this means is that over the course of the next 2-3 years as the US dollar sidesteps slowly lower and lower, everything will go up as a result. that includes stocks, metals, energy.

this is obviously one of the biggest reason for myself why I am heavily invested in gold.

as you can see, the temporary false breakout has been rejected by two over head previous trendline knocking it back down.

cycle analyst warns the US dollar will not complete it's intermediate low until sept/oct which is where gold will continue to move higher.

http://i.imgur.com/1ApaF6H.png

[SilverRex]

gold looks like it is on the move. as long as it closes above 1338 for the week I am happy.

[bspot]

MCRB for beer money. Down 76% on a trial failure.

[Vanish3d]

miners look overbought.
I keept my JNUG position in the RSP and picked up some JDST for a quick flip with tight mental stops:rofl:

[SilverRex]

sold some Jnug to free up some cash in case bte hits my target buy area

[SilverRex]

gold at 1350.78 is bear's last defense to try and maintain a bearish outlook for gold as that is the 61% retracement of the 1375 to 1310 drop. 20.50 for silver. once price clears above these area, short covering will take place resulting new highs.