Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Marsh]

Originally posted by ercchry
Yeah, options... Makes the most sense for me since I tend to not hold things too long

Cool, makes sense. I'm just trying to learn options trading a bit. How long out do you buy your contracts? a couple of months if your planning to hold for a few weeks?

[SilverRex]

a quick count for oil on the daily chart. If the low is in, then we should see a healthy correction then a next move higher. I am trading like oil has bottomed at 39.

However, the stock market appears it has nearly completed 5 waves up and could soon move into a daily cycle low for 7-10 days. During this period it is entirely possible that it will drag oil back down. So there is a chance for a possible under cut low to really scare everyone away if they havent already sold into recent weakness..

I am keeping my exposure small. but will double up on all my position if we do that get lower low. The timing band is ripe for this intermediate cycle and the next wave up to begin.

http://i.imgur.com/FVwyuls.png

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Marsh


Cool, makes sense. I'm just trying to learn options trading a bit. How long out do you buy your contracts? a couple of months if your planning to hold for a few weeks?

Yeah, once I get inside of 4 weeks I try and exit and move to the next month's expiry. I've been burned a few times so I try and avoid holding anything with a shorter expiry. I also usually average into my positions. Hence why my rrx position was smaller than I wanted.

[SilverRex]

feeling a bit naked or under exposed in the miners. Added back a small position. at the end of day. Will increase if gdx can dive between 29-30. Otherwise, hanging on for a potential rush upwards finale.

[ercchry]

I tried to average down my miners today, but set my buy too low

it's a gtc order though, so maybe it will hit tomorrow morning

[joegrang]

Originally posted by SilverRex
a quick count for oil on the daily chart. If the low is in, then we should see a healthy correction then a next move higher. I am trading like oil has bottomed at 39.

However, the stock market appears it has nearly completed 5 waves up and could soon move into a daily cycle low for 7-10 days. During this period it is entirely possible that it will drag oil back down. So there is a chance for a possible under cut low to really scare everyone away if they havent already sold into recent weakness..

I am keeping my exposure small. but will double up on all my position if we do that get lower low. The timing band is ripe for this intermediate cycle and the next wave up to begin.

http://i.imgur.com/FVwyuls.png

How do you see oil swing up with all the current macro issues? (End of driving season, middle east production, inventory) Is this purely a technical assessment or do you think that fundamentally oil sub $40 is too low to sustain? Oil hit mid thirties and OPEC couldn't reach agreement to cut production. Thanks in advance.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by joegrang


How do you see oil swing up with all the current macro issues? (End of driving season, middle east production, inventory) Is this purely a technical assessment or do you think that fundamentally oil sub $40 is too low to sustain? Oil hit mid thirties and OPEC couldn't reach agreement to cut production. Thanks in advance.

I mostly focus on technicals and now also studying and learning about cycles. Oil is a bit messier to analyze technically this year than other markets.

oil is usually in a 3 year cycle and had produced a 3 year cycle low when it hit 26. So even if the fundamentals are very poor, I doubt it will test or even head lower. the next 3 years will be a rise in oil.

even if the entire rally is corrective, it can still move in a very large degree ABC with higher prices.

I am not looking for 100+ oil, so my trades are mostly short to medium term.

Not to mention oil prices can move ahead of itself in anticipation of future game changing events. By the time you hear that fundamentals have changed, so will the price of oil. I did read one article suggesting 6-10 months down the road that there will be huge supply squeeze due to the inability to restart many projects.

Just like oil price can be overbought to the upside, it can also be oversold to the downside. Do you honestly believe oil can get back to 10 dollars given the state of inflation and money printing that is going on today?

I also believe the US gov as well as the oil cartel to not allow such low oil pries because it would crush the word economy. Along with stocks all assets. They are trying to inflate their problems away which eventually will result in a blow off top or bubble some where. then the real crash will begin. I think we are 3-5 years out from that event.

[SilverRex]

with all of the doom sayers and bearish tone out there. Lots of money are on the short side of the market. yet day by day, the stock market is pushing higher and higher.

One thing alot of people usually get wrong is the timing. No doubt we will have another 08 event. but when the entire world is so focus on it happening now, the exact opposite happens. Just wait until prices go higher and mass short covering events takes place. it will fuel the next bubble. Once the regular talk on the street and your every day grandma is saying buy stocks it's heading to the moon, then it is time to get out.

[SilverRex]

thankfully I added back some miners late yesterday. gold is looking strong overnight.

while I have scaled back in this sector significantly. I still have ample position to ride the train if it takes off now.

the current EW community has counted gdx in a 1-2,1-2,1-2 setup. what this mean is that, as long as price remains above 29. the next breakout could be a wave 3 of 3 move which potentially target 37-40 area.

can miners rise another 30%? sure it can (see last chart)

so watch gdx at 29 closely. if this level is broken, it is not end game. it only means the recent move up was a wave 'B' following wave 'C' for another test of the 27 area.

http://i.imgur.com/WVqvV6S.png

Here is the chart and where we are for the junior mining index

if we are following the 08 junior gold bull movement. it does appears there is one more sharp move higher to come this month.

http://i.imgur.com/vHc2dJE.png

[SilverRex]

I did mention the possibility that gold could move in a triangular consolidation which is still bullish. But if gold breaks out now (above 1375), next target would be a quick visit to 1430 which would mean silver around 22-23 area.

is silver ready to breakout?

http://i.imgur.com/EzukqWJ.png

[SilverRex]

havent posted a chart on the US stock market for a while.

using S&P here, it is nearly completed it's 5 wave up for it's this first upleg. once it is finished, it will head down for a wave 2 correction possible the next 5-10 days.

I believe during this drop, gold/miners will equally head up to higher highs and gold onto 1430s.

once US stocks bottoms and all the bears are excited thinking the crash has begun, it will then move into a wave 3 rally that will throw everyone off. all liquidity will move back into stocks and gold will then begin it's next daily cycle low.

http://i.imgur.com/JgN1HWy.png

[SilverRex]

so far gdx (miners) have a good opening, breaking out above the down trendline and clean wave counts off the low to end the correction.

as long as gdx remains above 30.95, then this breakout is real. any closing below this level warns a lower low under 30 is still very possible

http://i.imgur.com/5vj0Aaa.png

[SilverRex]

oil formed a weekly swing. another sign oil may have already bottomed.

[SilverRex]

added another position on Jnug with stops under 295. if price breaks below that, it is likely this is still a counter trend rally wave B with one more wave C to come which will I then re-enter

[riander5]

Biotech cooling off. Will wait for LABD to chill out on hourly RSI and get in with a stop around 21

Should have paid more attention and got in 3 days ago when it brokeout of daily OS... missed about 10% from there.

Hopefully some ways to go

[SilverRex]

quick update on gdx

after breakouting out, it has backtested the trendline and came within 2 cent of the 39.95 area.

price needs to move up here or risk invalidating this impulsive move for the next leg up.

to avoid whipsaw, best to place stops under 30.64 instead

http://i.imgur.com/vLB3JKw.png

[SilverRex]

oil has reached my min 42 and under target. re-adding my bte position here.

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5
Biotech cooling off. Will wait for LABD to chill out on hourly RSI and get in with a stop around 21

Should have paid more attention and got in 3 days ago when it brokeout of daily OS... missed about 10% from there.

Hopefully some ways to go

I went a little too early. Agreed everything was a lot clearer 3 days ago. Either way, decently in the green now, with hopefully some downward movement left.

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil has reached my min 42 and under target. re-adding my bte position here.

Past support creates future resistance

Oil had some good support at 42ish back in early may... That was where it bounced off. Hopefully it can find its way above that, then the next target i see is hitting that old down trendline it followed a month ago

Still lots of room for it to run not sure what the next 3-4 days hold though

https://s10.postimg.org/kjwgn192x/Capture.jpg

[KappaSigma]

Hoping for a couple sown days in oil and then for it to trade between 40-45 for a bit.

[Marsh]

Oil seems really wonky these last few days...Like it wants to move up, but basically all data and sentiment is for it to move down. Lets see how the next few days go.

SItting on cash atm..

[SilverRex]

gold's near term critical support is 1340. it tested this over night and must hold and begin to rise if this sector is ready to challenge new highs towards 1375-1430.

similarly miners also needs to move up now if yesterday's drop was a wave 2 correction. the entire mining complex is on the cusp of a major breakout towards 37-40 but it needs to hold above 30.64-30.95 follow by above 29.00 to maintain this bullish count in the short term.

was expecting oil to drop to at least 42, it sold down further to 41. I am now trading oil like 39 was the bottom. But I did post up a chart comparing a similar scenario whereby oil has a shot a creating an undercut low like it did back in Feb. driver behind this may be the general stock market is ready to move into a 5-10 day weakness that could potentially drag oil down.

a healthy scenario would be to see oil maintain above 39, yet move sideways as it forms a base. once the stock market bottoms and begins its next leg higher, everything will go up together.

[SilverRex]

for gold as you can see, inverted head and shoulder as well as cup and handle patterns are showing up. while patterns are never 100% accurate but it does give us some hints the consequence of an-upside break out above 1363 that could trigger a rapid surge towards 1430

http://i.imgur.com/IDiflYY.png

[SilverRex]

the resistance for oil at 46 is very obvious. I think it is very possible regardless of direction oil will soon test this area. I do not believe it can break thru this on first try so I will set this area and take some profit off the table on initial test.

but before we talk about 46 oil will first have to close back and sustain above 42.

so long oil does not break below 39, I think energy stocks have completed wave 1 and in a wave 2 correction. the next thrust will be strong

http://i.imgur.com/zDCCgpu.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
http://i.imgur.com/m17W1v0.png[/img]

this chart I posted a few days ago is so far looking pretty good

[SilverRex]

gold on the move... :eek:

if gold doesnt sustain any up move today could get negative quick.

moving up my stop loss on all Jnug positions

[bball2]

Still holding nugt and uwti :-D

[SilverRex]

if gold closes below 1346 I may sell half of my Jnug position. as that is the first sign that the latest rally begins to look corrective.

[Kloubek]

I just wanted to say, SilverRex, that I really appreciate you sharing your insights with us.

I've already stated my position in oil was long term, so I'm not really swayed either way. However, I believe this provides valuable insight for some of our forum folk. Obviously, they utilize the information at their own peril as they would with anything they find on the internet. But from what I can tell, your assessments have appeared to be more accurate than not, so particularly for green investors such as myself, seeing a strong opinion backed by the graphs really helps.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Kloubek
I just wanted to say, SilverRex, that I really appreciate you sharing your insights with us.

I've already stated my position in oil was long term, so I'm not really swayed either way. However, I believe this provides valuable insight for some of our forum folk. Obviously, they utilize the information at their own peril as they would with anything they find on the internet. But from what I can tell, your assessments have appeared to be more accurate than not, so particularly for green investors such as myself, seeing a strong opinion backed by the graphs really helps.

thanks for your kind words. I am glad things are moving more predictably than not. I hope the market continues to move favorably for all of our sake.

[secol]

yeah thanks for sharing. i'm starting to learn and get more understanding with how you are using technical analysis albeit at a beginners level

[Neil4Speed]

Same SilverRex, I have been following you for 5+ years now, really appreciate your insight. Thank you!

[bball2]

I do mostly fundamental analysis for my investments but always interesting to see some technical analysis behind the the trends. Another props to SilverRex :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

not sure who here is playing natgas, I havent not been following this much but have taken notice it's currently in a wave c down correction. looks good risk/reward wise.

opening a small position here to test waters for UGAZ @ 29.67

nat gas looks like a text book correctional wave 4.

cant rule out it can drop further. So I am keeping my initial position small

http://i.imgur.com/JUmRxlG.png

[bspot]

^Is there any CDN equivalent to UGAZ? I'm trying more and more to move to CDN ETFs expecting US $ weakness.

Considering HGU for the same reason, but not sure that's valid as it has US holdings as well.

[troyl]

^HNU is 2x levered on the CAN side.

[bball2]

Damn gold back down to 1347, going to exit a few of my leveraged positions and hopefully get a chance to buy in lower

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
Damn gold back down to 1347, going to exit a few of my leveraged positions and hopefully get a chance to buy in lower

I sliced my Jnug in half when gold closed below 1346. Looks like this sector isnt ready to breakout just yet. Most likely waiting for the stock market to top out first.

One area I am eyeing is the 50DMA for gold on the daily chart at 1320.

recalling gold is very much still can potentially move in the triangle pattern I first talked about. and 1320 happens to be near the bottom of the triangle as well as the 50DMA which it likes to retest every few months

[bspot]

Anyone still in for LABD? Interesting day, hoping for a decent close, ideally XBI < 62 and tomorrow to continue the down trend. Daily swings on LABU/LABD have gotten a lot smaller recently.

[94CoRd]

Originally posted by bspot
Anyone still in for LABD? Interesting day, hoping for a decent close, ideally XBI &lt; 62 and tomorrow to continue the down trend. Daily swings on LABU/LABD have gotten a lot smaller recently.

Got out of LABU at $40 yesterday. Only 8 shares bought at $26 - but you have to start somewhere :rolleyes:

I'll be watching LABD to see if there's a good entry in the next few days.

[riander5]

Originally posted by 94CoRd


Got out of LABU at $40 yesterday. Only 8 shares bought at $26 - but you have to start somewhere :rolleyes:

I'll be watching LABD to see if there's a good entry in the next few days.

Your commissions will dig into profits if you are day trading that small of an amount

[94CoRd]

Originally posted by riander5


Your commissions will dig into profits if you are day trading that small of an amount

I took that in to account when i bought and sold - but I'm still in the green. It would have been about a month ago when I purchased - and it was my only one - so I wouldn't consider it 'Day Trading'.

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by bspot
Anyone still in for LABD? Interesting day, hoping for a decent close, ideally XBI &lt; 62 and tomorrow to continue the down trend. Daily swings on LABU/LABD have gotten a lot smaller recently.
Still in LABD.
Not going to let one bad day result in a panic sell.
Will be interesting to see tomorrow's results.

[KappaSigma]

Aeco gas taking a kicking this week due to cross border constraints. Back down to $1. Yikes.

[riander5]

In UGAZ today

Missed my LABD entry point as i wasnt paying attention again lol... hopefully another down day tomorrow (or up for biotech) and then back down (or up for LABD).. is that confusing enough?

[SilverRex]

gold is having some good support around 1338 this morning. let see if it can muster any kind of momentum. Most likely retail sales news in the US will be the key driver.

if gold falls yet again, next most likely range is 1320-1330.

oil looks solid after taking out the triple resistance and still holding above 43.38, because the move is impulsive yesterday and has completed 5 micro waves up from 41-44. I wanted to see a minor correction no lower than 43 then make a move towards 45-46

Nat-gas looking good so far.

[SilverRex]

as you can see, the triangle consolidation can still be very much alive. anything under 1330 would begin to be a good buying area

we will have to see if the breakout will occur now or in a few weeks

http://i.imgur.com/fqm8hOh.png

[SilverRex]

retail sale missed. gold is surging. means weak US dollar (geez what a surprise considering technically the USD is on a path to a new 3 year cycle low anyways)

let see if this finally means gold breakout towards 1430

also this could be the cataylst for the stock market to begin moving into a wave 2 correction for 5-10 days

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
[B]not sure who here is playing natgas, I havent not been following this much but have taken notice it's currently in a wave c down correction. looks good risk/reward wise.

opening a small position here to test waters for UGAZ @ 29.67

nat gas looks like a text book correctional wave 4.

cant rule out it can drop further. So I am keeping my initial position small


Nice call ! I opened a small position of UGAZ yesterday. Looking like a good open

[SilverRex]

picked up GG (gold corp) and added another small Jnug position both with stops to see if this breakout is for real

as long as gold does not close below 1343 I will continue to hold all my gold positions

[SilverRex]

for those holding bte

we have 5 waves up for sub i and potentially (if oil can muster momentum and make a move towards 46) then bte is on a cusp for a wave 3 breakout move. current alt count is one more wave lower under 6.25 to end the correctional wave 2

http://i.imgur.com/7lXNh0j.png

[SilverRex]

with the poor retail sales number, the dollar broke down below the trendline this morning. a neckline targeting much lower lows. it has since been trying to backtest. if the line holds and dollar resumes down, then the fun may finally begin for gold or even oil too.

I am hoping gold can at least make it to 1360 follow by a breakout next week

http://i.imgur.com/SIgWg6y.png

[SilverRex]

the only concern is that despite gold's strong move today. miners look relatively weak and every rally appears to be sold off.

definitely need to have stops in place in case there is still potential for gold to work down towards the lower part of the channel/triangle low in the 1320-1330 and gdx between 29-30

[bspot]

Originally posted by bspot
MCRB for beer money. Down 76% on a trial failure.

Ended up adding to my position here after the first selloff.

It broke out today and is almost at $11 from lows of ~$8.

I might even buy some of that fancy beer!

[Nova316]

BTE looks like a short term inverse head and shoulders and long term cup and handle
I suspect a strong breakout above $6.8

Bought more at $6.3x

[bball2]

Bought some call options on CXR hoping for a dead cat bounce sometime this week

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot


Ended up adding to my position here after the first selloff.

It broke out today and is almost at $11 from lows of ~$8.

I might even buy some of that fancy beer!

Well on the downside of that with new NDP taxes all beer is priced closer to fancy beer.

Enjoy the lucky! haha :banghead:

[SilverRex]

exited my Jnug position. looks like gold still wants to tag the bottom of the triangle pattern under 1330

[SilverRex]

just holding my two core miners. will buy back when gdx can land in the sweet spot of 29-30

[Disoblige]

Waiting for a decent entry into DWTI. Not sure if now, or soon.

It's $88.88.. is that a sign? LOL.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by bball2
Bought some call options on CXR hoping for a dead cat bounce sometime this week

Looks like the cat is still looking for the ground to bounce off of

[Disoblige]

I got out of LABD. XBI just doesn't seem to want to reverse and should have sold when it was at $24.

Oh well, ~$1800 profit to alleviate some risk over the weekend, and could go back in it if it dips into the $20's again next week.

[bball2]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


Looks like the cat is still looking for the ground to bounce off of
No kidding, cut my losses after it broke 15, good thing down to 12.76 now

[bspot]

Originally posted by Disoblige
I got out of LABD. XBI just doesn't seem to want to reverse and should have sold when it was at $24.

Oh well, ~$1800 profit to alleviate some risk over the weekend, and could go back in it if it dips into the $20's again next week.

I added. Hoping this is the b wave of an a,b,c correction and this turns over next week.

XBI did bounce perfectly off the 23.6% fib retrace, but it was such a sustained move up, and with markets looking toppy, things should be lining up for a bigger pullback.

We shall see....

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot


I added. Hoping this is the b wave of an a,b,c correction and this turns over next week.

XBI did bounce perfectly off the 23.6% fib retrace, but it was such a sustained move up, and with markets looking toppy, things should be lining up for a bigger pullback.

We shall see....

I dont think 23.6% fib is really ever used for much. 38 50 63 78.. but who knows

[bspot]

^Agreed, which is why I didn't put much credence in the 23.6 bounce. I'm not ruling out that XBI may retest it's previous high, so it could get uglier before it gets better.

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by bspot
^Agreed, which is why I didn't put much credence in the 23.6 bounce. I'm not ruling out that XBI may retest it's previous high, so it could get uglier before it gets better.
Yeah, I might re-enter next week if it gets worse, but I did not feel comfortable at all holding it over the weekend.

[Vanish3d]

I bought a large position of JDST with the intention to sell at end of day, but got caught in a meeting and now I'm holding it over the weekend....:banghead:

Man I hope gold doesnt gap up monday... or better yet I hope it gaps down to the ground.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I bought a large position of JDST with the intention to sell at end of day, but got caught in a meeting and now I'm holding it over the weekend....:banghead:

Man I hope gold doesnt gap up monday... or better yet I hope it gaps down to the ground.

i hope it gaps down as well. i sold everything but my core miners. looking for a re-entry with gold in 1320-1330 and gdx 29-30

[Meback]

Gold is on fire. Hot molten yellow liquid. Sucks because i wanted to get into kinross. Still holding onto the black tarry stuff. Come on bte and meg!! Have a 8 percent day please.

[Meback]

I take it all back. Kinross just shit the bed. Down huge over night.

[SilverRex]

let start with oil for the week.

oil had a great week finally producing a weekly swing which is a good sign that the ICL (Intermediate cycle low) is in.

more confirmation will be needed. (see next chart)

http://i.imgur.com/4hPZ9Qg.png

right now there are two counts + a bearish alt count on this chart.

I am leaning towards the bullish counts because of the weekly swing and as such oil is in a new daily cycle

the black count is that we have 5 waves up and oil is now correcting. with yet another negative divergence showing up on MACD/RSI, there is a high probability that oil will retest the important 43.3 area which now should act as resistance.

The green count is a even more bullish count whereby we already completed 5 waves at 44.25 and now in a wave i of (III), I suspect as long as oil remains above 44.25, then this bullish count will be valid.

the red is the typical A=C 3 waves counter trend rally which I do not prefer but still wanted to show. A corrective rally means oil low isnt done. Sign for this would be price will dive back down under 43.3 and remain under it. so keep this in mind.

while there is alot of positive signs that oil is ready to march higher, the final confirmation still requires oil to break and close above 46.

does anyone want to wait until that happens and enter a sector that is 20-30% higher? the best risk reward was when oil hit 39. and I have been trading as if oil bottomed at 39. So far so good.

http://i.imgur.com/5vtkAj4.png

[SilverRex]

and onto gold.

last week we all got excited when gold looked like it had the catalyst (weak retails sales in the US) to crush the dollar and push gold towards a breakout.

it caused a short term false breakout in gold, and until gold cracks above 1360, there is really no breakout and as you can see, the triangle consolidation remains the most likely pattern at play.

I have scaled back significantly, and now will wait for the better entry in this sector.

the best support so far is the 50 DMA at 1320.

http://i.imgur.com/46UjDDe.png

[SilverRex]

with gold possibly heading lower, miners too need to make a lower low under wave A.

I continue to wait for a re-entry in the sweet spot between gdx 29-30

the current count in miners remain extremely bullish as long as it holds above 29. closing below 29 would open up 27 which I do not expect and do not prefer at this time

http://i.imgur.com/PlIRiXe.png

[riander5]

I agree with silverrex on oils resistance target.... its past support and resistance trendlines are both around 46, plus its 7 day RSI is approaching oversold, with my 14 day stoich rsi being oversold for a few days.

Might see it cool off for a day or two (or what im sure silverrex would call wave 1-2)

Had a bit of LABD but biotech wont cool off. May stop trying to get in countertrend and wait for a good trend supporting entry of LABU

[ercchry]

Go meg, go!

[Vanish3d]

gold and GDXJ don't seem to want to crash..

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
gold and GDXJ don't seem to want to crash..

personally I would never go short in a bull market, because most surprises are usually to the upside. and even if I do, I would only short if it is near an intermediate top (like when gold topped in the 1303 and dropped to 1200) because intermediate cycle lows are usually scary and the sell off are more severe.

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5
I agree with silverrex on oils resistance target.... its past support and resistance trendlines are both around 46, plus its 7 day RSI is approaching oversold, with my 14 day stoich rsi being oversold for a few days.

Might see it cool off for a day or two (or what im sure silverrex would call wave 1-2)

Had a bit of LABD but biotech wont cool off. May stop trying to get in countertrend and wait for a good trend supporting entry of LABU

I watching to see if LABD is headed for close below the low of today. The last 3 up days of XBI have completed a 62% retrace of the first correction.

If this b of a,b,c relief should occur soon. Otherwise, XBI is going to continue on to retest $65.

[SilverRex]

biotech isnt going to get weak so long the stock market continues to make records high. although the expecation is it is late in the daily cycle and should top soon. I doubt the NASDAQ can sustain the breakout on first attempt.

gold on the other hand, while I am expecting a lower low under 1330. gold can still pop and screw the shorts as it hinges on the performance of the US dollar.

I am just going to wait patiently, either buying post breakout or see some value low risk/reward setup

[SilverRex]

oil is approaching 46, we will see if it can break out on first attempt or require consolidation

considering how many times it was tested. My bet is it should not be able to get thru on first attempt

[SilverRex]

anyone here believes in the idea that with the passing of El Nino this year and the coming of El Nina that could usher in extreme cold temperature this winter hence a strong rise in natural gas prices?

[secol]

i do....looking at birchcliff as something to buy

oil sideways right now :/

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by secol
i do....looking at birchcliff as something to buy

oil sideways right now :/

technically would love to see natgas complete its 5 waves (get above 3 dollars) and get thru it's correction heading into winter. then the setup for a powerful wave 3 rally would be an extremely profitable event.

[secol]

Originally posted by SilverRex


technically would love to see natgas complete its 5 waves (get above 3 dollars) and get thru it's correction heading into winter. then the setup for a powerful wave 3 rally would be an extremely profitable event.
looks like most of the time the period to buy is somewhere in Sept-Oct?
i don't know enough about NG1 though and why 2012, 2014 and 2015 never went up over the winter. 2015 was a mild winter?

[Marsh]

Whats the best way to play the nat gas futures curve through etfs? Only one i found was GASZ (short front month and long mid term HH) but doesn't seem to be active anymore?

[secol]

HNU was mentioned earlier as a x2

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by SilverRex


technically would love to see natgas complete its 5 waves (get above 3 dollars) and get thru it's correction heading into winter. then the setup for a powerful wave 3 rally would be an extremely profitable event.

For most part if you are playing gas equities in canada, nymex gas doesnt impact them.

[KappaSigma]

Be interesting come late sept with opec meeting. If no agreement, oil should sell off hard. If an agreement, then most likely 50 is new bottom.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Be interesting come late sept with opec meeting. If no agreement, oil should sell off hard. If an agreement, then most likely 50 is new bottom.

Opec meetings have done nothing to oil the past year.

Sell off for a day maybe then it's back to status quo.

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
anyone here believes in the idea that with the passing of El Nino this year and the coming of El Nina that could usher in extreme cold temperature this winter hence a strong rise in natural gas prices?

Also the mass shutdowns of coal power plants across the US. Dont have the link on hand but google plants that are set for shutdown as well as coal plants near the end of their life cycle. Theres a god damn ton of em

[Disoblige]

Personally, I'm looking for entry into DWTI ~$70-75, but monitoring how it goes tomorrow and Wednesday. Still somewhat surprised at this oil rally when fundamentals still look pretty weak. Good for bulls I suppose.

[SilverRex]

those trading labd, caution if the stock market doesnt drop significantly soon, biotech will make a higher high (wave 5) labu 48+

shorting is difficult in a market where the trend is pointing up with unlimited money printing.

even if the market does drop I suspect it will be short and mild. I am going to guess the US gov will do everything to not allow any significant pull back leading up to the US election. now that the Nasdaq has broken to record highs, this breakout could also gain momentum and just continues to stomp higher

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by ickyflex


Opec meetings have done nothing to oil the past year.

Sell off for a day maybe then it's back to status quo.

Dont agree. They have caused shorters to cover.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


Dont agree. They have caused shorters to cover.

Your premise was oil will sell off hard if nothing comes out of opec. I was simply saying oil tanking because of opec is not going to happen.

The reversal is likely that if something does come out of the meeting oil will rally.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by ickyflex


Your premise was oil will sell off hard if nothing comes out of opec. I was simply saying oil tanking because of opec is not going to happen.

The reversal is likely that if something does come out of the meeting oil will rally.

If opec doesnt come to agreement and timing wise there are no macro events hitting supply like nigeria, fort mac etc. Oil should sell off. Especially as timing wise its refinery maintenance season too.

[SilverRex]

well oil is trying to breakout from the down trendline and beyond the major resistance at 46.

if successful, it will seal the bottom at 39 and confirmed that the intermediate cycle low is in. Next upside target will be 60-75 oil.

right now as long as oil at 43.3 holds we have two paths. if a false breakout occur and oil needed to consolidated then we may see if backtest 43-44 wave iv

the more bullish scenario is to see oil break above 46 then back test the trendline for wave iv instead.

eitherway is positive for oil as long as we stay above 43.3

http://i.imgur.com/b9c3Z0v.png

[SilverRex]

as for the gold strength this morning, as I have mention, it is now all about the US dollar. as expected. from the last US dollar chart I posted, the back test would again force the dollar lower and so everything continues to go up today.

does this mean gold's consolidation is done and it is ready to make new highs?

While I still would like to see gold head down into the 1320 area. I will however watch it closely this morning and may open a few position if it breaks out above 1360 with stops or during pull backs.

the only sign so far that gold's breakout could be yet another false one is silver is under performing

update. well gold appears to be crashing, so that makes decision much easier this morning

http://i.imgur.com/nVSfrCI.png

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
[B]

update. well gold appears to be crashing, so that makes decision much easier this morning



thank god ! I saw it peak this morning and had a nervous ride to work with my JDST. I'm stubborn I guess lol

[SilverRex]

while I still would love to see gold hit that sweet spot under 1330 and tag the 50 DMA at 1321.

it does look like gold's consolidation is continue to get tighter. with the higher highs of late. I am wondering if the triangle is now even closer (in red) oppose the orange.

im still leaning towards an upside breakout.

since i am only 35% exposed in gold at the moment. I am going to add a 2 small position with a mental stop loss under gold 1330.

http://i.imgur.com/NlOEek7.png