Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Vanish3d]

My account is acting funny. It is showing the old amount of JNUG shares (also showing that equivilant $ value) and when I try to trade it at the quantity after the split, it tells me I don't have sufficient shares....

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
My account is acting funny. It is showing the old amount of JNUG shares (also showing that equivilant $ value) and when I try to trade it at the quantity after the split, it tells me I don't have sufficient shares....

ya it's a problem once the share is splits or reverse split and your account takes a time to update

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
My account is acting funny. It is showing the old amount of JNUG shares (also showing that equivilant $ value) and when I try to trade it at the quantity after the split, it tells me I don't have sufficient shares....

If you need to trade, just call your bank on the phone and request they make the trade (I know, what is this, the 1940s?). I've done that before when my webbroker was acting up.

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
My account is acting funny. It is showing the old amount of JNUG shares (also showing that equivilant $ value) and when I try to trade it at the quantity after the split, it tells me I don't have sufficient shares....
Can you submit the order anyways? Sometimes this is just a warning, but you can just submit it anyways and it will be done manually by them in the backend.

[Vanish3d]

Well, it was a blessing I couldnt trade. I was going to cut my losses with JNUG. Now it's up 15% (which is still waaaaaay below my break even, but gives a little hope)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Well, it was a blessing I couldnt trade. I was going to cut my losses with JNUG. Now it's up 15% (which is still waaaaaay below my break even, but gives a little hope)

the rally today is most likely due to the extreme oversold. right now it is possible there may be one more wave lower. if you cant stomach the swings its best to scale down a bit.

[Manhattan]

Gold seems to be oversold AF.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex


the rally today is most likely due to the extreme oversold. right now it is possible there may be one more wave lower. if you cant stomach the swings its best to scale down a bit.

I listened and dumped all JNUG when it was up 12%.
I just put in the order and my account now shows negative, but that should fix tomorrow. Looks like a good move so far.

[Vanish3d]

go LABD GO
maybe it'll recoup the JNUG losses

[SilverRex]

gdx looks like it has completed 3 waves down and potentially in a wave 4 bounce. technically it should make one more wave lower (divergence?) sell on news by tomorrow Yellen?

then this wave C bottom should be in, that is what the EW is expecting anyways. The more bearish view is that miners have began a large degree intermediate decline and this drop was only a wave A with a strong bounce wave B follow by a another even steeper wave C drop that could take gdx down to the 21-22 area.

However I am still leaning towards the current mind set that this leg down is wave C (not A) and looking for a bottom this week.

if miners did bottom this morning. then we should see price take out 27.85 and stay above it as it steps higher in 5 waves.

personally picked up a small position in Hzu.to, out of USD funds to play USLV, dont want to get hit with exchange rate. with silver holding well around 18.50 is a good entry for me anyways. may double up the position if there is a panic drop to 18.3 tomorrow

http://i.imgur.com/KAntAz9.png

[SilverRex]

as for oil, it looks like it broke the down trendline. the first sign wave iv correction may have ended today. if wave 5 has started, it should be able to test 50-51 in the coming days.

unless tomorrow is still a wild card, and this breakout becomes a false head fake. Either way, a correction is a correction. 45 or 46. next move is up imo

http://i.imgur.com/UlGY4f2.png

[bjstare]

Late day strength in JNUG. I was hoping to unload today, given how much stronger it rebounded than I thought it would but was away from my desk when it breached $22, and away again for the last little while before close.

Here's hoping it does ok tmw/over the weekend.

[Meback]

So kinross just released news that it has shut down their mine in chile and has layed off all workers. This cane earlier then expected as they were looking at a 4th quarter closure. Anyways... why would this make their stock jump 4 percent after hours.

[SilverRex]

ok lets look at gdx today.

quick review. after gdx taking out 28.5-29.00 area this week, the breakdown immediately sold down under the previous support at 27.4, just didnt realize it was in a such quick and short order.

while the price breakdown has invalidated the short term bullish count. Here is the kicker. the EW community as I have read this morning are now saying due to this pull back, it became even more bullish.

I have been trying to learn from both bullish and bearish camp and keep both in mind. Strategy is to ensure that if the bullish hand wins, I have holdings that I can profit, but if the bearish hand wins I have enough cash to get myself in a much better position.

regardless of direction, I sense due to the extreme oversold condition, and plenty of people who missed the run this year wanting and waiting for a pullback, a strong bounce will be likely.

so I present to you two counts. Yes I am bias and leans towards the bullish setup. the bullish setup is a 1-2, 1-2 setup with wave i of (iii) of (III) about to begin (once it bottoms) possible low is in or post after Yellen shock.

a new channel can now be drawn once price begins to move back up next week if not today.

here is the best part. Those that are concern and just wanting to GTFO, look for the bounce towards 30.

If the red count and a significant bearish path unfolds, the initial bounce will be strong but many will jump ship. So take the opportunity to either scale down or get out.

those who loves the risk/reward play can continue to hold.

Key support for the uber bullish count requires price to remain above 25.5-25.75 which I have drawn a double support line here.

good luck trading

today's market should be a dandy

http://i.imgur.com/rnltPes.png

[SilverRex]

pending any post Yellen surprises.

we have a few great confirmation that potentially the daily cycle low may be in for gold.

-swing low confirmed
-double back test of neckline
-RSI oversold

http://i.imgur.com/0hutsmF.png

[SilverRex]

also food for thought, according to this article. in the past 20 years gold's biggest gain comes in September.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1472215802.php

[Vanish3d]

Any magic analysis for xbi ?
I'm on the labd side now :whipped:

[SilverRex]

it appears Yellen's speech causing the probability of a rate hike in September to rise. Now we shall see how gold holds up despite an initial thrust downwards

edit: what a swing. so far within my expectation. news drove everything into deep red now everything is back up green and gold looks STRONG

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Any magic analysis for xbi ?
I'm on the labd side now :whipped:

sorry I have not been paying attention to biotech, all I can say is biotech ties in with the general stock market especially the nasdaq. while expectation is suppose to be a correction the over all bias and counts suggest stock market is gearing up for a powerful wave 3 move to new heights.

so it is very risky to go short as surprises are usually to the upside. and I think even more so leading up to the election that the US gov does not want to let it tank.

thats my personal opinion :/

[el_fefes]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-26/yellen-s-prepared-remarks-at-jackson-hole-full-text

skimmed through it... not sure what this means for a possible september rate hike... she does say rate hikes will happen at some point...

[SilverRex]

well I think the wave 4 correction in oil has certainly confirmed to be completed. it is moving towards wave 5 > 49 oil.

my lower order for silver did not trigger, but I am glad at least I have a position at 18.5 silver to ride this wave.

hopefully the strength in gold today is real. gold has traded sideways for way too long and would be nice to finally see it give us a nice run in the coming weeks.

[Meback]

Same old circle jerking bs. Question is do what are you doing silver rex?

[Meback]

Double post.

[bjstare]

I don't get it. I thought rate hike news might be bad news for gold. Or maybe I'm confused, someone want to try and bring me up to speed?

[SilverRex]

sorry for the long post

but here is some read on the speech

Yellen push back at hawks creates confusion

Patti Domm | @pattidomm
Tuesday, 29 Mar 2016 | 7:28 PM ET
CNBC.com
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SHARES
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COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Yellen: Global developments pose ongoing risks Yellen: Global developments pose ongoing risks
Tuesday, 29 Mar 2016 | 12:40 PM ET
‹
Yellen: Global developments pose ongoing risks
Yellen: Global developments pose ongoing risks
03/29/16 12:40 PM ET
Yellen: Inflation expectations may have drifted down
Yellen: Inflation expectations may have drifted down
03/29/16 12:43 PM ET
Yellen: Appropriate for FOMC to proceed cautiously
Yellen: Appropriate for FOMC to proceed cautiously
03/29/16 12:49 PM ET
Yellen on risks to U.S. economy
Yellen on risks to US economy
03/29/16 12:56 PM ET
›
Fed Chair Janet Yellen attempted to reassure markets that the U.S. central bank will move cautiously with further rate hikes, pushing back at recent hawkish comments from other Fed officials. But the Fed chair also managed to unleash a backlash from some of Wall Street’s more often staid economists.

Yellen, speaking to The Economic Club of New York, said that it is appropriate to proceed with caution in moving policy, and that economic and financial conditions are somewhat less favorable than in December when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nine years.
But some Fed watchers thought Yellen’s message was murkier than usual and raised doubts about the central bank’s forecasts and monetary path.

“Janet Yellen gave her audience limited lip service to ‘baseline’ projections and expectations for dual mandate improvement and rate normalization, but carpet-bombed her audience with possible downside caveats. In so doing, she created the distinct impression that she had little confidence in the Fed’s baseline outlook,” wrote Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies, in a note.

Read MoreYellen: Economic readings mixed, appropriate to be cautious

Citigroup economists cut back on their rate hike expectations after the speech and now expect just one rise this year, in either September or December. And Amherst Pierpont’s chief economist, Stephen Stanley, said the chair’s speech revealed herself to be a “radical dove,” in a note he titled “Janet Yellen jumped the shark.”

“In the past, she and I might have looked at a glass of water and disagreed about whether it was half full or half empty,” wrote Stanley. “Today she took the partially full glass and dumped most of the water out and defiantly declared the glass mostly empty. Her assessment of the economic and policy outlooks is well out of step with most of her colleagues on the FOMC as well as most private sector economists.”

Yellen’s appearance was the first since several Fed officials suggested last week that the central bank should start to move more quickly to raise rates, even as early as April.

Those comments were viewed as surprising and a sign of disagreement within Yellen’s Fed, particularly after the FOMC issued a dovish statement after its March meeting.

“There really wasn’t any new direct information content. We know they’re going slowly. We know they’re being cautious. We know they’re being flexible. What was new was the weight of risks,” said McCarthy. “She heaped them on. She came off as being uncertain about the outlook for growth, inflation and therefore monetary policy. … If the price of everything goes up then she’ll be convinced they’ve finally beaten back deflation.”

Markets took her words as dovish and stocks rose, the dollar weakened and bond yields fell, particularly the Fed-sensitive two-year note yield. That note slipped to 0.78 percent from 0.84 percent before her speech. Bank stocks fell with declining yields.

“Curiously, for a central bank presumably in the middle of a tightening cycle, Yellen’s speech focused more on downside risks that those to the upside,” wrote Dana Saporta, director of economic research at Credit Suisse. Saporta said she expects Yellen would have been just as dovish had the other Fed officials not called for rate hikes.

Traders also focused on her comments that progress has been made in inflation measures, but that she sees inflation remaining low this year and the prospect of down readings concerns her.
“The major thing that changed since December and March that affects the baseline outlook is the slightly weaker-than-expected pace of global growth,” Yellen said in response to a question after her speech.

Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics said the Fed chair “caged the hawks” on the FOMC and she ultimately is the most important vote on the committee.

“We see her desire to really experiment and let the unemployment rate fall further. She’s given herself wiggle room with the data. Obviously, data dependent means something else. It means ‘subjective data dependence.’ … Glacial is now an overstatement for Fed rate hikes. We’ll probably get one in June but I also think we’ll get two dissents in April. This is going to be confusing for markets over this tug of war to raise rates or not.”

“I don’t think she meant to pull back markets as much as she did. … I think the reaction to it is because it stands in such bold contrast to: ‘Let’s go, let’s go, let’s go,'” said Swonk

She said Yellen believes that there could be persistently low inflation even in a lower unemployment environment where employers do not increase wages, sparking inflation.

Markets also priced out a full rate hike for 2016 immediately following Yellen’s comments, and according to RBS, the odds for a rate rise fell to 25 percent for June from 32 percent. The expectation for a full rate hike by December dropped to a 90 percent chance.
“One of the challenges of transparency is when you’re transparent during a period where policy is in flux, and new things are being tested. In being transparent, you’re also exposing vulnerability and that’s what we’re seeing here,” said Saporta.
Read MoreShock cuts to Q1 GDP show economy could be faltering

John Briggs, head of strategy for the Americas at RBS, said Yellen was not so much countering the hawkish comments but reinforcing the March FOMC statement.
“How much of this is keeping markets on your side to gain time for overseas concerns? The Fed gets very involved in the markets so it’s hard to tell,” said Briggs. “Either way, her comments are conducive for easier financial conditions for the United States.”

Yellen did say the U.S. economy and labor situation in particular are making progress, but her concerns suggest a very slow path of rate hikes. She also said the Fed has the ability to be accommodative. Recent data have been mixed and economists cut the median first-quarter GDP growth tracking estimate to just 0.9 percent Monday after weaker consumer spending data and a wider trade gap.

“I think it depends on all of the things she’s really focusing on — inflation expectations, overseas and whether the U.S. economy holds up. Certainly what she’s doing is helping weaken the dollar which helps out the overseas side, keeps rates low and stocks higher,” said Briggs.

[SilverRex]

based on the currency movements, I think the news is very mixed. perhaps a couple of days as we will see a better direction

gold barely hanging on to slight gain on the hourly chart.

[Disoblige]

Because she pretty much said nothing new, I think it works out ok. Won't be a spike in gold, but just a gradual grind into the coming weeks. September hikes pretty much off the table IMO.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Because she pretty much said nothing new, I think it works out ok. Won't be a spike in gold, but just a gradual grind into the coming weeks. September hikes pretty much off the table IMO.

agreed, usually too strong a move results in instant profit taking and reversal. a slow grind over multiple week is actually the better.

look at what happen when they raised the rate last year, a 20%+ drop to begin 2016 in the stock market. I doubt they will allow it to repeat during election.

also again, the India gold buying spree will begin soon and a strong September seasonal strength for gold will be perfect.

[ercchry]

So I've been trying to watch the commodity report on bnn everyday... And I'm a little confused. They had someone on talking about gold and he said end of August/ early September is usually weak for gold?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by ercchry
So I've been trying to watch the commodity report on bnn everyday... And I'm a little confused. They had someone on talking about gold and he said end of August/ early September is usually weak for gold?

there are different charts depending on how far you want to go back.

but here is one

http://i.imgur.com/JZA5VJf.png

[SilverRex]

well so much for the gold rally. more test.

talk about volatility :nut:

it feels like all the bulls and bears are fighting this out and is down to within 10 dollars of gold prices.

[Disoblige]

Fischer talking, that's why lol!

[Meback]

Fuk these trolls.

[SilverRex]

it just completely amazes me how someone's speech can change the market this much.

at the end of the day, there is no substance, I can see payroll figures being more impactful (manipulated or not)

it almost appears traders are not investors but momentum traders. its time to evolve and follow..:thumbsdow

Christmas came early as my entire portolio keeps flashing green and red every few minutes. :dunno:

[SilverRex]

Yellen mention buying asset in her speech.

so she tells Fischer, "say something dollar positive so we can start buying these asset prices near today's low"

Fischer "Your the boss, what ever"


market took out every longs who had stops today. and now they will take out every shorts who had stops.. :rofl: the madness continues,, bank wins from all the trading fees today. my bet is on them instead j/k

[bspot]

I'm semi committed to the idea of holding my current energy and JNUG for the rest of the year and doing absolutely nothing. Any massive upside between now and then and maybe scale back. Too many losses lately dicking around trying to catch swings.

[el_fefes]

^ I'm on the same boat.

[SilverRex]

looks like miners are indeed moving into a 5th wave down (lower low) considering gdx was unable to sustain the breakout over 27.86 today

[bjstare]

Got stopped out of JNUG @ 20 this aft (which is ok, cause my avg cost was like 19.3 or something). Will look for another entry next week, hope to see this weakness silverrex is thinking about.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ok lets look at gdx today.

http://i.imgur.com/rnltPes.png

not much to comment to start the week. But to remind you the chart I posted last week on the two possible paths for miners.

personally I am still leaning towards this is a medium term correction that should bottom this week if not last friday for the next up leg. But do keep the bearish red path in mind as it can turn into a more severe correction which is really a fantastic buying opportunity however one has to be able to have a plan for both scenario, this way you will not be stressed out :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

as for oil, it held up extremely well post Yellen last week, but stock market in general still feels like it wants to drop into a daily cycle low correction. so oil be be under pressure (or it may actually help lift the market back up)

as you can see, while it broken the short term down trendline and created a swing low for an initial buy signal. it can still move into a a larger correction with a slightly lower low and the top last week has constructed a new down trendline.

I expect once the US dollar tops, Euro bottoms, oil will make a higher high >49 to complete this 5 waves.

http://i.imgur.com/ZsiyEBd.png

[SilverRex]

here is a decent article for the metals and to put last friday's Yellen into perspective.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4002587-ignore-yellen-buy-dip-precious-metals?auth_param=6776j:1bs5i7v:ee4ece144f539efdb20071a4b66de849&uprof=52

[bjstare]

https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2016/8/28/saupload_yellen-of-oz.jpg

:rofl:

[bspot]

Anyone's broker still not updated for the recent splits/reverse splits?

It shows the current JNUG price but my pre-split quantity. Makes my recently decimated balance look even worse :rofl:

[buh_buh]

Mine hasn't updated

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by buh_buh
Mine hasn't updated

same here,

i would have scale down my leverage when Jnug was up 15%

anyways looks like fate has decided for me to wait this one out ;)

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by buh_buh
Mine hasn't updated

mine finally did today. It was confusing to trade the last couple of days.

[Vanish3d]

:banghead:

[SilverRex]

well gdx finally made a lower low as expected. the only question is, have we bottom? or we have a bit further to go?

I would like to think we are very very close. does look like we have 5 waves down for this final wave V of A/C wave.

I would like to see it begin to rally would be ideal, not sure if we have to wait until the NFP or not. it will be nice to see gdx have the chance to get back to the 29-30 area to form a right shoulder and give us longs a chance to scale down or re-balance our portfolio

http://i.imgur.com/AXVIesW.png

[Disoblige]

Oh man, bloodbath.

Such a gamble with the NFP numbers though. But if numbers are 180k or greater on Friday, you can almost guarantee a panic sell, which could be a decent entry at that time. On the flip side, depending on how much under 180k the job number is, we may see a big spike before profit sell off.

[bjstare]

:(

[asp integra]

Go Teck, just sold for a 28% gain!

[bspot]

^Spare a change for JNUG holders?

[SilverRex]

im tempted to sell my core miners and switch to Jnug

[SilverRex]

sold 30% of my core miners and bought JNug at 16.6

gdx at 61% retracement of the 22-31.7 run as I have said critical support for miners to remain bullish is 25.5-25.75, taking a stab at this is the bottom, regardless if trend change I expect a powerful bounce either this week or the next

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by SilverRex
sold 30% of my core miners and bought JNug at 16.6

gdx at 61% retracement of the 22-31.7 run as I have said critical support for miners to remain bullish is 25.5-25.75, taking a stab at this is the bottom, regardless if trend change I expect a powerful bounce either this week or the next
Pretty ballsy. I respect the TA, but sometimes that just goes out the window when people panic sell due to news. Gut feeling is telling me to wait until Wednesday/Thursday as the pain might not be over yet.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige

Pretty ballsy. I respect the TA, but sometimes that just goes out the window when people panic sell due to news. Gut feeling is telling me to wait until Wednesday/Thursday as the pain might not be over yet.

I know what you mean and wont argue with so many news coming out, it could grind lower still. The best trades are the one hardest to pull the trigger. I have a plan to scale down but have learn from experience to only buy low and sell high not the other way around.

:D

[Meback]

Every position i ve been putting in just keeps getting destroyed. Whether its in oil or gold. Was thinking about picking up shares of pot at close yesterday..... well lets just say nothing is going right for me.

[SilverRex]

as much as I want miners to bounce here and stay strong, this can still be a final wave iv of V of C bounce.

if gdx gaps down tomorrow, I am going to convert another 30% of my core to leverage

[SilverRex]

pending any surprises on the oil inventory report this morning (of course it could also surprise to the upside) I think oil at 45.3-45.5 area is a perfect support to complete the wave iv bottom. 45.5 is also the 50 day moving average.

http://i.imgur.com/ndVnDXz.png

[SilverRex]

lets revisit the dollar index.

ever since dollar hit a double top at 100 and also the 50/200 EMA produced a deathcross, I believe as well as other technical analysis that I follow that the US dollar has started a bear market.

every counter trending rally has been sold down. and in impulsive fashion.

I cant recall if I posted the dollar chart back when it looked like it was about to breakdown below 94. I might of posted it elsewhere, and had expected the dollar ideally would be to rally and form a right shoulder.

as it is now coming up to some key resistance. RSI has reached overbought and each time pretty much turning it around in full order.

I expect the next big move is down which will help lift the stock market, oil as well as gold.

will this time be any different? I read an article the other day saying one of the most dangerous thought in trading is the notion "this time is different"

well technically dollar looks ready to continue the pattern to the downside, so until the trend changes, I will continue to bet on further weakness which is strength across all sectors

http://i.imgur.com/nySj2Vq.png

[SilverRex]

added a position in abx here. just could not pass up a good opportunity here. even if the trend has changed, I believe we will still get a very good bounce.

not adding anymore leverage, but will convert my core miners into them if it drops significantly further.

if this is the bearish count, we should get a good counter trend bounce then drop further down to gdx in the 22 region. but not leaning towards this scenario until we can assess the bounce, how it bounce to see if it looks corrective or impulsive.

[SilverRex]

oil inventory in a few minutes. oil stocks is already moving as if the news will be good. we shall see, technically oil just needs a catalyst to trigger a strong rally out of the correction

+2.276M vs 0.92M forecast

edit: no help from the report to lift the oil sector, but nothing catastrophic either. looks like its back technicals and the US dollar

[ickyflex]

Prior was +2501K
Gasoline -691K vs -1000K exp
Distillates +1496K vs -125K exp
Cusing inventory -1039K vs +400K
Production -0.7% w/w and -7.9% y/y

[bball2]

And oil just nose dived too :banghead:

[Disoblige]

Gold, oil, bio all getting killed today. Great day to be a bear.

[Vanish3d]

I think we gonna see JNUG under 100.

[SilverRex]

as mention so far the dollar is being rejected at the 96.2x area which has like a quadruple resistance zone.

looking for the euro/usd to breakout from a declining channel to fuel the energy/gold sector

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I think we gonna see JNUG under 100.
You know, with anticipated decent job numbers and even speculation of it being padded to make Obama/Hilary look good, JNUG could very well go into single digits. Pain throughout this week and into the weekend IMO. This is all based on how I believe people are going to react on Friday, as silly as the reaction may be. It's just going to be a slow bleed until then before more pain.

[bspot]

I just can't imagine the insane resistance this miners will face when a bottom is in. There are an insane amount of people out there looking to cut their losses at any sign of a rally.

[el_fefes]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/31/why-the-federal-reserve-probably-will-not-like-the-nonfarm-payrolls-jobs-report-friday.html

Apparently August has been the worse month since the end of the recession in terms of job creation... here's hoping the trend continues...

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Disoblige

You know, with anticipated decent job numbers and even speculation of it being padded to make Obama/Hilary look good, JNUG could very well go into single digits. Pain throughout this week and into the weekend IMO. This is all based on how I believe people are going to react on Friday, as silly as the reaction may be. It's just going to be a slow bleed until then before more pain.

10-20% loss a day in JNUG aint no SLOW bleed :cry:

[Disoblige]

GDX's been holding that $25.5 range all day.
Making NUGT and JNUG steady more or less.

Wonder what's in store for tomorrow and Friday.. Hmm..
Curious if I should put a position in before EOD.

[bspot]

So what's everyone's average, and what's your plan?

I'm $21.84... and a shit ton of it.

I need to scale back, but doing so south of $20 would be extremely painful. Considering very long hold, but anything longer than a few months and decay is going to start to eat away to a significant degree.

No saying there isn't a lot of downside left still.

[Meback]

Well.. currently i am patiently waiting, and secretly praying. I will be holding onto what i have now and wont even touch it or add any more positions .

Currently have:
Yri @ 7.08 (1000 shares)
K @ 6.24 (1000)
Kgc @ 4.18 (1000)
Bte @ 6.82 (3000)
Meg @ 5.92 (2000)

Only thing really stessing me out is gold. Not sure what to do, but dont want to sell out for a lost either. Any advice would be appreciated. This aint even me in balls deep, but i so this to make money not lose it. I might just never look at ithem again until 2018.

[bspot]

^This is where I'm realizing the leveraged stuff kills you. I'd be fine just holding it for 2 or 3 years until there's a big move to the upside that could actually still pull decent returns, but decay will kill me first.

I'm in MEG as well @5.68.

[Manhattan]

Enough with the hysteria guys. This fear is exactly how the market capitulates. Just let it be a good lesson in how much risk/leverage you are really willing to take.

[SilverRex]

whether you are on the short side of gold or the long side. the 3 counts I have all points to a convergence and rally back up.

even some extremely well disciplined traders that I am following are all jumping in both feet at the current levels due to some of the moving average, back test and gap filled areas.

They have a lot more flexibility and can easily withstand a bit more downside, I know everyone freaks out during these panic sell offs. I am still fully invested in this sector, just dialing up more leverage as it drops.

when market sentiment is extremely and severely bearish, thats when the turn happens. (remember biotech when it was near a breakout then it gave back all of the gains? then when it broken the bottom of channel looking like new lows ahead, it reversed and now it completely recovered?

http://i.imgur.com/HgbbQWJ.png

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Enough with the hysteria guys. This fear is exactly how the market capitulates. Just let it be a good lesson in how much risk/leverage you are really willing to take.
:werd:

I'm in JNUG @ ~19.90 and YRI ~6.30. I'm probably going to average down on one or both of those, likely going to wait the week out before doing so.

[el_fefes]

Agree with Manhattan...

I have some cash on the side so I may average down. If Friday's job numbers are good i'll be in the market.

When people are greedy get out, when people are bleeding get in?

[ercchry]

I'll be freaking out of it hasn't recovered in a couple weeks... Till then there isn't much I can do, so why worry?

at least the miners are holding pretty well

[Disoblige]

For those interested in the topic of non-farm jobs numbers this Friday; some food for thought:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/31/why-the-federal-reserve-probably-will-not-like-the-nonfarm-payrolls-jobs-report-friday.html

[kaput]

.

[Meback]

No kaput. Silver is using the strength of the usd to gauge future weakness in the dollar. We are betting on a bullish gold.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by kaput
Am I reading this thread correctly? You guys are gambling on junior gold miners with triple leverage, and in USD?

Nah, I'm way more crazy than that :rofl:

Using dgc options to be bullish on gold

[kaput]

.

[Meback]

Lol. Kaput. You miss understood. No one is placing bets on the american dollar.... we are analysing its strength and weakness to better determine the direction of gold. Essentially strong USD means weakness in gold. A weak USD would mean strong gold.

What silver believes is that the USD will be soon showing weakness and as a result it would support higher gold prices. He is betting on jnug as he also beleives that given golds recent weakness it is imbound for a strong reversal. Hence why he is in a 3x leveraged etf.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Agree with Manhattan...

I have some cash on the side so I may average down. If Friday's job numbers are good i'll be in the market.

When people are greedy get out, when people are bleeding get in?

look at gdxj. back in June when the sentiment became extremely bearish the market turned, same thing in late July. perhaps it is no different this time?

http://i.imgur.com/NponcE2.png

[KappaSigma]

I am going to start building a large position in baytex again. While i think there is more downside to come, i think mid 2017 will see higher prices again.

[SilverRex]

just want to give everyone a big picture perspective. corrections are normal.

I believe gold is in a new bull market. and as such any draw down will be corrective with time. Although it is riskier for leverage funds because of time decay so I tend to hold core miners and using leverage as a short term trade.

using one of the great performing mining company RIC.to

after an initial rise off the bottom (3.5x) it corrected -29% the wave 3 then produced a 450% after.

So I have to say, if you believe in this sector, be patient. scale in and hold. No one can time the perfect entry as I have said in early August. I sense a bit of market hesitation and the strategy is to scale down and have cash on hand in case it dropped. and so here we are.

http://i.imgur.com/LbaBvZ6.png

[SilverRex]

US dollar just started to collapse, oil and gold getting the benefit

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex
US dollar just started to collapse, oil and gold getting the benefit

Any news as to why? I still have the opportunity to avg down JNUG, but I'm afraid this isn't the official bounce/jobs info could really fuck with it.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair


Any news as to why? I still have the opportunity to avg down JNUG, but I'm afraid this isn't the official bounce/jobs info could really fuck with it.

personally I believe smart money has the insider information that perhaps the NFP tomorrow isnt so good and so they drive gold prices down as much as possible so they could cover their pre-Brexit short position before the release.

if you look back the last couple reports, it seems to be a trend change for gold. its funny how the NFP will usually go against the current trend in gold. If gold was rising, the NFP was positive, when gold was dropping the NFP was negative. it is like the price action leading up to the report appears to be driven from behind the scene.

anyways what do I know, I am just sticking to my own analysis and technically we are very much due for a bounce. even if the report tomorrow somehow drives the mining sector down initially, I think the recent price action may have been already baked in and so the buy on news sell on rumor group will come out to play.

edit: appears today's dollar weakness and rise in gold were the poor ISM numbers in the US

[SilverRex]

oil remains under pressure possibly due to the stock market finally giving a real pullback, been waiting for this pull back quite a while. in the end I do not think the Fed wants to see too big of a pull back in stocks as to create a panic leading up to the election as it will only fuel Trump's cause.

although I am still bullish on oil, im not liking how much it has retraced since peaking at 49. My position in energy is very small at 15%, I am scaling down to 10% for a chance to buy lower.

focus is on gold this month

[SilverRex]

very encouraging rally so far in the mining shares. it has broken out of the sloping wedge (which is usually a bottom ending pattern. many swing lows has been spotted across most mining shares which is a good sign a bottom 'may' be in. technical buyers will begin coming back on board.

count wise, it has met all the requirements for a 5 waves down for this C leg. unless it breaks above the previous sub wave i at 44.29, it is hard to say with certainty, as this bounce still has a chance to be a final wave iv of v of V. if that is the case then the final under cut low will most likely occur from tomorrow's report release.

Whether it bottomed today or tomorrow, my short term target will be a 50% bounce back towards the 46-48 area in the coming weeks.

then we will assess if the rally out of this drop has any grounds or we may be still in a larger correction.

http://i.imgur.com/ljxT5iL.png

[Vanish3d]

Just jumped into JDST for a quick ~$1 flip. put a sell order at 32 and seeing what happens.
Still holding my JNUG position tho

edit: got stopped out! oh well, at least JNUG is moving

[asp integra]

I was going to buy some JNUG at the end of the day yesterday, I should have!

[SilverRex]

final confirmation is to see gdx move strongly above 26.9 to seal the bottom. other wise risk remains on the table we could see one more wave lower.

[troyl]

WTI Off 3+%, but MEG + BTE and others in the green.

[KappaSigma]

Cynapsus Therapeutics

Looks to be a decent Potential arbitriage on this to hold until buyout closed.