Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

gold action looks strong, report negative?

update created 150k expected 180k.

see you on the next train stop

so the pattern continues, the gold price trend leading to the numbers, it tends to reverse it :nut:

I may remove some profit this morning, just because from experience this year, any significant rise usually met with profit taking more often than not.

pending pre-market holds. gdx should blow pass 26.9 which should confirm the low yesterday is in.

its buy on dip and sell on pop for the next few weeks. imo

[Disoblige]

Good call on this Silver. I just wanted to wait for this result to confirm. It was a crapshoot as I bet it could easily went the other way if the job results were on the other end. Now we know :)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Good call on this Silver. I just wanted to wait for this result to confirm. It was a crapshoot as I bet it could easily went the other way if the job results were on the other end. Now we know :)

well its certainly was not the reason why I continue to hold my position but the pattern appears to make sense. this will give us some ideas to work prior to next report. such as if gold is on the upper range of a trend, it is probably looking for a catalyst to reverse etc

[SilverRex]

sold a Jnug position this morning. will continue to unwind slowly the higher it goes for the next couple of days until I feel comfortable with my over all position.

[Disoblige]

Hmm, $USD going higher. What the hell? Haha

[bjstare]

Gold price doesn't seem to be slipping too much, but profit taking from JNUG going on (as evidenced above haha)

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
sold a Jnug position this morning. will continue to unwind slowly the higher it goes for the next couple of days until I feel comfortable with my over all position.

managed to get out of JNUG at 21 too.

[SilverRex]

it's true, think of all the people who got in early and was panicking the last few days. a bounce like this would be heavily sold into. then I expect the buying will pick up again and when investors start to believe in the rally and it begins to move higher and higher, another wave/trap sell off begins.

I will try to take advantage of this technical reversal this week to try and put myself in a more comfortable and flexible situation. despite a poor NFP numbers, technically there was enough damage done to the mining sector that this could be just a counter wave bounce follow by another hard sell off to throw everyone off.

I am will have to be prepared for both scenario

[Disoblige]

I bought into the $20's this morning. Should have let it calmed down a bit before jumping in. Now I'm holding the bag, lol!

[bjstare]

I'm still holding, nice to see it grinding back up and back into the green (for me). I'm probably going to continue to hold, under the assumption that we have now entered an upward trend. I've got more gas in the tank in case, for some reason, it shits the bed over the long weekend.

[Meback]

Gold is up 9 bucks. Some miners have not reflected that. Weak hands are selling out. Like rexbsaid wait untill the money start floodimg back in.

[Disoblige]

What an interesting day for gold. Went from high, to low, to uptrend, to no one giving a shit what Lacker has to say, and now continuation in uptrend.

I got in later, but the gains for those who capitalized on it when it was in the teens are definitely reaping it in :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

taking off anther position here in Jnug as I sense miners have 5 waves up. could potentially make for a correction to begin next week. I will re-enter if not the rest is enough for me to ride to the heavens.

not saying it will happen, but I have to stick to what TA tells me

perhaps to fill the gap at 44 before taking off

http://i.imgur.com/XrQ3Nmm.png

[bspot]

I was out of town so unable to peel anything off. Hopefully this holds up for Tuesday, otherwise no big deal. The price action and breaking the downtrend has me far more comfortable with my current hold. It could be the case of the more held until the end of September the better.

[SilverRex]

got a couple if minutes to throw up some chart on a pretty boring long weekend Monday.

a couple of weeks ago, it was spotted that Natgas appears to be forming a wave IV correction A=C similar to the wave II correction back in May. couple with the oversold RSI, it was a pretty good bet that was a good bottom. Few weeks later, as we can see, it was indeed the right call.

not only did it rose strongly, it also broken the down trendline to sustain it's bullish momentum.

last week it has backtested the trendline and appears ready to make another move higher.

conservatively I have to say it could be finishing off it's 5 waves up by testing or slightly breaking above 3.00 but a even more bullish move could arise taking natgas above 3.30-3.50 area

if you had gotten in natgas under 2.60, then you have room to hold. so long it holds above 2.70, this bullish move remains very likely.

http://i.imgur.com/Ub9pLUy.png

[SilverRex]

I wont post any charts on miners just go back the previous one, but for gold, lets look at the daily chart here.

thanks to friday's poor NFP which suggest there 'should' be no rate hike in september. gold has regain momentum and formed a swing low. Silver looks more bullish on the weekly setting so does all the mining shares all reversing out of an extreme oversold reading.

while it feels like everything has turned the corner, even if gold drops initially to begin the trading week. I expect there is further upside in the next 4-6 days regardless of trend. Many miners had some pretty heavy volume to end the week which suggest a turn has happened.

the bullish scenario
-current cycle outlooks expects USD to drop into an intermediate cycle low during sep/oct which will push gold to new highs/topping. This would likely help gold tag the next resistance area around 1430 on the low side and 1500 on the high side.
-count looks like a 1-2, 1-2 setup with wave 3 being the next big move.

While I am leaning towards this and will make sure I have position to capitalize this, gold still needs to breakout and sustain price above 1350 in the coming days or weeks if it wants to create a panic buying for the anticipated move.

The only problem, if gold cannot breakout above 1350 and or fed actually shocks the world by raising rates in September. it could cause or force gold to move right into an intermediate decline now and change the cycle counts of making a low between sept/oct instead of a top.

so we have to look at the bearish count
-if gold produces a lower low (lower than last weeks 1302)
-unable to breakout above 1350

then the red path will begin to take a life on it's own.

folks, gold has moved quite a lot in just 6-8 months. so it is really coming down to a coin toss between which direction it can go. with the mining sector still very stretched above it's 200 day moving average, it is only a matter of time when price snaps back to it's mean during a steep correction. it could happen sooner than we think.

I would hesitate to load up here. and if gold does make a strong move towards trying to breakout above 1350, my own strategy is to try and re balance your portfolio to be able to take advantage if there is a breakout, yet be able to withstand a steep draw down.

remember a big move down that you can buy lower is equally profiting and rewarding as it is moving up.

personally I will try to unwind all my leveraged position during this short term swing up as gdx/gdx should have a good bounce to test the 30/50 area. and will keep my core miners for the potential breakout only.

http://i.imgur.com/NwcCQX8.png

[SilverRex]

last chart on oil.

every since oil broke down at the beginning of July, it has became more difficult to predict. as it would appear oil's direction is very indecisive, I believe we have a lot of people trying to short oil and do not believe in this year's rally one bit. the extreme shorting also causes violent short covering moves when oil bottomed near 39 and snap back above it's moving averages.

one thing I didnt spot which I should have was the 49 oil was the neckline which would have help oil breakout and it was rejected perfectly to the down side, oil bears do not want this neckline broken because it would signal a technical breakout targeting 70+. so now we have a bullish inverted H&S trying to breakout but also a bearish H&S trying to breakdown. this will create alot of false moves and side way actions in the coming months imo.

the green count was my initiate view on oil, the wave iv drop last week was too steep to my liking. while it reversed along with gold, i just feel the market is still in confusion. it did backtest the previous breakout line but I have to say it is in no mans land at the moment and could go both ways. news from OPEC, russian/Saudi meeting, inventory (or stock market cycle low could also drag oil down).

So unless oil can quickly and impulsively breakout, the likely scenario would be a long and painful grind side ways for a couple of weeks., it is also possible oil's intermediate decline has not finished and 39 was now the bottom and it wants to go after a lower low under 36.00.

due to this confusion in oil I have scaled down my position from 15% to 10%. will increase my holdings if I see better opportunity or better outlook from this sector . Seems like Natgas has the momentum right now

http://i.imgur.com/s6dI1Dl.png

[SilverRex]

gold looking great this morning. while the real breakout does happen until it crosses above 1350, silver appears to breaking it's own neckline now. and the GSR ratio is heading back down which suggest liquidity is now flowing back into metals

gold also generating a weekly swing low which is another reason causing the early buying to begin the week.

will see if I can use my leveraged Jnug to try and exit near a peak and buy back at a low now that gold has made 5 waves off the bottom (1302) from last week.

[Disoblige]

I'm concerned about the profit taking this morning myself. What's your price target for the "high" for JNUG before the dip?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
I'm concerned about the profit taking this morning myself. What's your price target for the "high" for JNUG before the dip?

well I would base my entry/exit mostly around what gold is doing and right now it would appear gold's next major resistance area is 1338-1342, if I Was to take profit I think I will wait until price at least reaches there.

with the recent dip in Natgas, I may add to my UGAZ position this morning as well.

[bspot]

Ahhh feels so good to unwind most of my JNUG. Back to sitting 50% cash.

[Disoblige]

ISM data is poor, just released. 51.4 vs 55 forecast. Gold to go up now.

[SilverRex]

USD appears to be collapsing. Today's US data just sealed a no sept rate hike. Gold should have a test to 1350 soon to see if it can breakout. stand by. I may take some profit there instead

[el_fefes]

Picked up a little UGAZ this morning too.

[SilverRex]

miners are struggling at a critical area. gdxj is testing the reverse 61% retrace of the 52 to 41 drop. this is where shorts are trying to hold. gdx is at 29 which is not far. a pop higher would cause short covering imo. Normally I would take some profit here but looking at how weak USD is, I want to see if gold has any momentum to at least make it to 1350 before I start taking more leveraged position off the table.

Jnug has already surged 58% in less than a week which is very impressive

[SilverRex]

anyways im taking profit, cutting half of my Jnug here with gold at 1342. the rest at 1350.

[SilverRex]

after the quadruple resistance which I suspect the USD will have trouble holding, it has preceded into the strong sell off today. Coincident? My theory is that the US gov wants a weaker dollar so they can continue to inflate the market with their unlimited money printing, yet they do not want to cause a breakdown/crash either. So they will do what ever it takes to prop the dollar up then let it fall.

the trend is a slow grind making new lows but every significant drop will be met with buying perhaps intervention? or Euro/UK trying to keep their's from surging? what ever the reason.

technically it has formed the right shoulder that I warned about, and it would be a spectacle to watch if it can break below the current (red) neckline forcing many technical traders to flee.

a break down would and should coincide with gold breaking out upwards beyond 1350 and a chance for new highs.

Unless the US does not want to let the dollar slide yet and so the performance of gold at this time really hinges on the US dollar. the bearish count for gold and miners can still be possible, if something wants the USD to reverse and make another run into the 96-97 area delaying the inevitable but it will harm gold in the process.

nothing is guaranteed so I will only trade the leverage during gold near a cycle low (which we just had last week) and try to stay away from leverage play when gold is near 1350. I will let my core miners ride the breakout if it does happens.

cash is king, especially when market suddenly gifts us opportunities like what we just saw last week in the mining sector.

http://i.imgur.com/aDjMx4e.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
whether you are on the short side of gold or the long side. the 3 counts I have all points to a convergence and rally back up.

even some extremely well disciplined traders that I am following are all jumping in both feet at the current levels due to some of the moving average, back test and gap filled areas.

They have a lot more flexibility and can easily withstand a bit more downside, I know everyone freaks out during these panic sell offs. I am still fully invested in this sector, just dialing up more leverage as it drops.

when market sentiment is extremely and severely bearish, thats when the turn happens. (remember biotech when it was near a breakout then it gave back all of the gains? then when it broken the bottom of channel looking like new lows ahead, it reversed and now it completely recovered?

http://i.imgur.com/HgbbQWJ.png

just a reminder, the bounce is here between 28-30. we are at a very important cross road where bears will try to make a stand and push miners back into correction territory to keep the count to gdx at 22 alive. while bulls will want to pulse here then try to make a push to new highs.

personally I will be scaling back the higher it goes, the more I will take profit. this is everyone's best chance to re-balance your portfolio and make ready for the market now could go both ways.

[SilverRex]

i cant believe sil.v hit over 4.00 today I timed the perfect entry at 0.96 but sold too soon at 1.75, :dunno: oh well better than taking a loss I am sure

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
i cant believe sil.v hit over 4.00 today I timed the perfect entry at 0.96 but sold too soon at 1.75, :dunno: oh well better than taking a loss I am sure

Was in at 0.98 and out at 1.22. One of those profits that doesn't feel all that satisfying looking at where it headed.

High risk, high reward there for sure.

[SilverRex]

miners and gold are defying the law of gravity today except the USD

[GT.....O?]

Not sure if anyone follows MSTX, but they are due to release their results for a sickle cell treatment drug, up 25% today and has been climbing for the last week.

Results of their trial should be coming out on the 15th.

[Disoblige]

Safe better than sorry, but I dunno what kind of pullbacks we're going to get from now to 21st? Seems like the only pullback might be the panic sell before 21st, and then bam spike up.

Gold's going to hit $1350 now.

[SilverRex]

gold between 1350-1360 is the last resistance before a real breakout occurs

I am selling the rest of my Jnug here. I believe it should consolidate before the next rally as it is quite oversold in the short term.

I will buy back if it drops into a wave 4 correction. otherwise I am holding my newly positioned abx/yamana and kinross (core miners) for the breakout move.

[ercchry]

Looks like gold is still climbing, but the miners are slowing... Wish I had more ammo last week. I'm still stuck riding this for a bit longer. Hopefully miners can make another 6% by week's end. I'd be really happy with that. If not hopefully I can at least break even before I get too close to expiry

[SilverRex]

as you can see, gold previously had 4 attempts and was still unable to break above 1358. couple that with the last remaining down trendline. it should not be able to break out on first try without first consolidating and working off the overbought condition.

http://i.imgur.com/pyzpmQ3.png

[bspot]

Kinross has seemed like a bit of a dog, and Integra is scary low volume. I'm going all ABX and Yamana this time around.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Kinross has seemed like a bit of a dog, and Integra is scary low volume. I'm going all ABX and Yamana this time around.

pending this time gold does really breakout and the correction is in fact over. one can look at gold corp. g.to it has been under performing the entire year relative to other mining company. I feel during the next big leg up, gold corp would do extremely well.

[bball2]

Any of you guys playing AAPL at all for tomorrow? I purchased a few Call options;

Jan 20'17 110 CALL @ averaged at $4.67/ea

Might be a huge quarter for apple if they can keep up with the demand especially on the heels of the Note 7 recall.

[Disoblige]

Wtf, crazy lol. JNUG closes at high of the day.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Wtf, crazy lol. JNUG closes at high of the day.

FK ME ! I bought JDST at 21 with stop at 20. It filled it at the last second !

[bspot]

^Plenty of time for overnight rejection for gold.

Personally, if there is a gap up again tomorrow, I'm dumping all my gold and giving it a breather.

[SilverRex]

while gold is coming off from a strong rally yesterday. it looks quite strong to start the morning. any drop could be mild or weak.

I may just re open a small position in Jnug on any first dip. gold may open high first, would like to see it test the 50 MA near 1340

I will only buy back if gold dips and backtest the previous near term trendline as well as the 50day moving average at 1340 for 1 entry.

then 1 more near 1330

if gold doesnt then I will do nothing and see if gold can breakout above 1358 and buy back on the next pull back.backtest sequence

http://i.imgur.com/e0A02At.png

[SilverRex]

with gold nearly testing the 1340-1342 area which I suspect will be a minimum pull back. then gdx will be following a sharp pull back into the 28 then launch.

but if gold goes further/extending down to 1330 area. then we will have a steeper pull back down to the 27-27.5 area

opening back 1 small position in Jnug at current levels.

http://i.imgur.com/JPw7OID.png

[Disoblige]

What do you think the effect of the Beige book at noon will be? I don't know how long they finalize the print, so if they didn't alter it from last week's sentiment, wonder if it will be outdated and the numbers will look more positive than they are? Could have a negative effect on gold that could bring it down below $1340.

[SilverRex]

here is another good correlation of the USD versus gold price comparison going back to the 70-80s. There is some similarities.

http://goldseek.com/news/2016/9-7hm/image003.png

[riander5]

Silverrex are you finally making the move to trading view for charts? Welcome to the good side haha

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Silverrex are you finally making the move to trading view for charts? Welcome to the good side haha

lol not really. since I just keep it simple my own trading tool is sufficient. But I do realize alot of good traders I know uses trading view.

[SilverRex]

gold is still above 1340 yet miners are getting weaker. Not quite the relationship I want to see, but could very well be the sharp rise of miners are way ahead of them selves.

Will add another position if gdx can hit the middle to low 27s which will fill the 2nd gap up from tuesday.

edit: added a position in gold corp. a list of core miners now includes barrick, yamana and kinross.

[SilverRex]

some late day action in miners. gold moves up a dollar, miners breaks loose. thats what I want to see. would be amazing if it can close green today.

I didnt confirm but I last saw someone mention it could be the ECB news on the 8th and big money is placing their bets

[SilverRex]

its not the perfect pattern but most miners looks like have an inverted H&S (today's dip was the right shoulder) while H&S patterns are usually topping patterns couple the fact it only has a 60% probability of success, none the less technically it's setup perfectly.

if there is any good catalyst to give gold another strong boost. we could see the target of this pattern doubling the rise of the last 3 days.

btw, this is also a cup and handle pattern with price currently forming the handle.

interesting this week for sure not so much last week.

http://i.imgur.com/6RfCML2.png

[ercchry]

Dgc is making a nice little break... But they were trailing by a percent yesterday... So :dunno:

[bspot]

I took 2 positions of JNUG today at ~23 and ~22 and spent most of the day wondering if I'd been impatient again with my entry. This close is telling me otherwise.

[SilverRex]

you can tell who are the stronger companies with NEM, SLW and AG crossing to green first.

now Yamana....

[bball2]

Originally posted by bball2
Any of you guys playing AAPL at all for tomorrow? I purchased a few Call options;

Jan 20'17 110 CALL @ averaged at $4.67/ea

Might be a huge quarter for apple if they can keep up with the demand especially on the heels of the Note 7 recall.
Sold after +5% at the end of the day. Might look at a lower entry point in the future.

[bball2]

Nice afterhours uptick in crude oil :thumbsup:

[KappaSigma]

If eia is anything like api today crude should run. Withdrawal of 12mm barrels ishuge

[ercchry]

Tomorrow is going to be so exciting... Ecb should have their announcement before our markets even open... Come onnnnnn big gap up for gold/miners!

[SilverRex]

dollar index is currently trying to breakdown from the multi month neckline. all implication is a strong rally in metals. will the 4th time be the one? I hope so.

http://i.imgur.com/RgZ05jq.png

[SilverRex]

while i cant say gold would produce the breakout today. but I think it is inevitable. once gold breaks the multi-year down trendline, it would signal to all that the bear market is indeed over. a lot of shorts are still believing this gold rally in 2016 is a dead cat bounce.

http://i.imgur.com/ZqN1Q8Q.png

[SilverRex]

looking at gold this morning, no surprise from ECB which may be a good thing who knows and so it is leaning to the weaker side.

if gold does not breakout and continues to consolidate if not tries to make a run towards the 1330 area support then gdx's red count will begin to take shape to possibly fill tuesday's gap up

if the correction is in and gdx is ready to make a strong move higher, it should have no business breaking and remaining below 28.30 so the bullish momentum remains valid as long as it holds it's head above this area.

http://i.imgur.com/dmw64Gh.png

[SilverRex]

Mr. Draghi is speaking now, so will see if that helps gold or not.

[SilverRex]

wow gdx came down to 28.29 and has fully reversed. talk about the importance of the 28.30 level. as long as it doesnt make a new low, so far gold.miners looking good

edit: spoke too soon. while the break under 28.30 would now lean towards the path of a lower low under 27.8, watch for any sudden recovery if price gets back and sustains above 28.30 then we could be looking at a sharp 1-2 setup for a wave 3 breakout. but so long it remains under 28.30 and gdxj under 48.10 it does look like it wants to hit a lower low

[SilverRex]

Natgas
stockpiles rise a less than forecast 36BCF vs estimated 40BCF. Oil inventory data due 11am ET

looks like UGAZ is on a good pop today

[SilverRex]

oil inventory draw of 14 million, let see if that can reverse oil's fortune

[riander5]

Im loaded up on some oil juniors now so lets hope so.

Need a montney producer to buy CKE! Cmon you bastards!

[SilverRex]

if this oil rally is real, it needs to put away 46.50 (meaning) oil should not break below this while continue to move higher and break the previous peak at 49.36

[SilverRex]

gdx made one attempt to regain 28.30 but only to get rejected. with gold looking like it wants to testing the underside of 1340. will look to add a position if gdx can reach under 27-27.5.

sweet spot would be silver at 19.50 and gold at 1333

[SilverRex]

there is like a quadruple support with silver slightly under 19.50, I may be tempted to open a position in USLV here

so far despite gold made a lower low, miners hasnt dropped to the same degree which may be the first sign that a bottom is in. while it would be nice to see the level in silver and gold I mention tested. it is possible a close enough reverse would begin.

we shall see if that is the case here

[SilverRex]

just a quick chart on the uber bullish green count. technically it is ready to make a giant wave 3 move from a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 setup. It is now up to the market to drive this up. That is my prefer count where as the red path is the bearish alt count if the breakout is a false one follow by taking out 1300

http://i.imgur.com/orMIC6w.png

[KappaSigma]

With oil looks like imports were down 1.8mm boe per day reason huge withdrawal. I wonder if this is due to hurricane limiting access for tankers. Just a thought. If so its a temporary blip.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
With oil looks like imports were down 1.8mm boe per day reason huge withdrawal. I wonder if this is due to hurricane limiting access for tankers. Just a thought. If so its a temporary blip.

Tankers can't get in

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
With oil looks like imports were down 1.8mm boe per day reason huge withdrawal. I wonder if this is due to hurricane limiting access for tankers. Just a thought. If so its a temporary blip.

would this not have alter the forecast to account for it?

[SilverRex]

gdx wave C under yesterday's low at 27.8 technically has been fulfilled. the selloff isnt as strong as I expect as it is in a sharp declining wedge. I expect the bottom to take place today or tomorrow.

http://i.imgur.com/rXsG1ko.png

[riander5]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
With oil looks like imports were down 1.8mm boe per day reason huge withdrawal. I wonder if this is due to hurricane limiting access for tankers. Just a thought. If so its a temporary blip.

Record imports are the only thing keeping WTI down these days. Eventually the US and the rest of the world will drain saudi storage to a significant enough level that we should see a pop.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by riander5


Record imports are the only thing keeping WTI down these days. Eventually the US and the rest of the world will drain saudi storage to a significant enough level that we should see a pop.

Still needs saudi iran iraq etc to finish turning up the prod taps. I think its close. Just a bit more to go.

[riander5]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


Still needs saudi iran iraq etc to finish turning up the prod taps. I think its close. Just a bit more to go.

They arent turning them up enough to keep growing their storage. I wish this fucking forum was easier to upload pics as I am simply to lazy to host every one.

I have a graphic from the WSJ showing saudi storage dropping from an all time high of ~320 mmbbls to 280 mmbbls from jan1 2016 to end of q1.

Who knows what it must be down to now, as US imports continue to rise and saudi isnt producing more.

[riander5]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/oil-glut-is-fading-where-you-would-least-expect-saudi-arabia

Heres an article about it anyways. Who knows how much more they have drawn down since april when the data was last updated.

I am thinking 45-55 dollar oil for 2016 and a swing up in 2017. I really cant see the worlds production dropping off past then while demand continues to increase (albeit at a slowing pace)

[ickyflex]

CPG Financing, surprise surprise lol

[SilverRex]

gold finally hit the sweet spot of 1333 and silver in the 1950 overnight trading. this is my ideal perfect correctional ending spot.

may add a position with stop once the dust settles if shares open low to begin the day.

[SilverRex]

as i was saying. silver has hit and area with multiple supports

however the descending channel is near 19.25 instead so if there is an undercut low this morning I may plan my entry around that and gold down to 1330 instead

http://i.imgur.com/0QD4E7y.png

[SilverRex]

for those trading natgas, sept/oct is typically strong season for this sector.

http://i.imgur.com/j7dsfvQ.png

[SilverRex]

looking at the USDJPY currency pair this morning I am expecting it to roll over soon and this would add strength to gold once a new wave down begins

http://i.imgur.com/zGNvKOY.png

[SilverRex]

adding one more tranche in Jnug here

cant rule out one more micro wave for an under cut low for a stronger divergence, but im alo adding a silver position play here in the 19.38

[Meback]

Can some one update me on the situation of oil. This titter tottling bull sht is making me angry.

[bspot]

I have one green item on my watch list. I own none of it :rofl:

[asp integra]

Originally posted by bspot
I have one green item on my watch list. I own none of it :rofl:

Haha ditto, I have 2. Red across the board other than that

[SilverRex]

be patient and hang tight. this is a correction and so far nothing has been invalidated to the downside. the miner has corrected a bit more than I hope but still within the requirements of a wave 2 50-61% retracement criteria (of the recent 3 day surge)

I sense we are near the bottom. the only concern is there is still one large gap at 26.5 for gdx that potentially could fill today or monday, if gold suddenly drops down to 1326 to touch the bottom of the slopping channel.

that would be a gift imo. then I will gladly covert 1/3 of my core miners into Jnug once again. the 16-25 was a fun ride. would not mind to rinse and repeat

[bspot]

^Yeah I'm keeping way more ammo this time. Miners look weak vs gold.

[SilverRex]

looks like miners indeed want to hit maximum pain testing the 61% retracement and filling the gap at 26.50

converting a position into Jnug

[Marsh]

holy fuck jnug down 20%. Considering adding a position before end of day...

[SilverRex]

well what a krazy couple of days. Are you scared yet? because if you are then thats when the turn happens.

I am holding 65% core miners. 25% Jnug and 10% energy.

[SilverRex]

i do not understand the rate hike fear (which I thought was the reason for the sell off)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/september-rate-hike-would-break-fed-tradition-during-election-year-2016-09-08

it would appear the typical pattern is no hike close to an election. so my bet is no hike in September. otherwise it would send the market into an out right crash imo

[Disoblige]

Man, Brainard’s speech is going to be the last one before the blackout period.
I wonder if she knows how much power she has depending on what she says.

Monday could either boost or kill gold.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/09/09/late-addition-brainard-speech-throws-market-for-a-curve/

The question really is.. Why a surprise speech? Is it hinting a hike really is on the table? Or is she wanting to do some damage control from today?

What an exciting Monday it's going to be..

[SilverRex]

ok folks, get ready for some interesting action this week. Right now the market calls is quite bearish in all sectors.

starting with the stock market. sept/oct is known to be crash season and all the uber bears are coming out saying this is the start of something big. while personally I am in the inflationary camp and recently read that this is the behavior of a bull market. every sharp decline is meant to trap shorts and to scare off weak hands so big money can take your share as price continue to move higher once the bottom is in. Typically a bear market met with the opposite affect whereby you get sharp rallies but slowly it grinds lower and lower.

alot of bearish sentiment this week with a couple of Fed speeches today, potentially very market moving.

on with gold, specially looking at the miners since most of us trade this sector rather than the price of gold itself.

Its true, while gold is still consolidating for an upside breakout imo, miner indeed has moved into an intermediate degree correction hence the sell off are both tricky and scary. I never expected the correction to this degree would take place while gold is still moving sideways. perhaps miners rallied too much and too soon and is very stretched beyond it's mean so price had to correct itself,

for the health of the market, it only makes sense and healthy in general to reset sentiment, back test key areas and build momentum for the next multi month up leg.

So last week we had a pretty significant 3 day bounce. On day 3 I said we have entered the zone where one should rebalance it's portfolio as it could turn both ways depending on which count we are in.

after reading some weekend material, the initial green and red count is still on the table. but I wanted to offer a 3rd view. the orange count. If one goes back to the 2008-09 gold bull market rise, you will remember that miners after a multi month rise, it too corrected 38% (where we are now) the only difference was that shortly after a good rally it sold off and produced an under cut low. So if the stock market doesnt rebound today, and gold continues to be under pressure, we could very well see a similar event unfold whereby price will break last week's low. it is pretty freaky and hallowen isnt even here yet.

ultimately whether the bottom here or make a run towards 22-23 in this complex, it doesnt matter. it is all a great buying opportunity imho. Obviously buy and scale in at your own peril

http://i.imgur.com/BNNEaa4.png

[Vanish3d]

on the + side, UGAZ is looking like it will open higher.
I scaled down JNUG last week to a level that I'm comfortable riding it out. Put most of it in UGAZ so that's my focus for now

[SilverRex]

gold slightly rises and all miners goes green. its like trying to push a ball into deep waters, it refuses to sink but jumps at every opportunity.

[Vanish3d]

man am I glad I'm not trading JNUG/JDST today. I would've gotten stopped out no matter what direction I picked. Swings are crazy

[SilverRex]

well so far the Fed speech appears to help the miners, the question is, will this hold...

Brainard was quite dovish today. hopefully that gives us a turn in gold

[bspot]

I didn't buy this morning despite all the temptation, but the 21st is still a long ways away. If got enough JNUG to be happy if it runs from here, but also a little ammo left if it decides to take a dive again.