Official Short-term Investments Thread

[ercchry]

Wtf dgc...

[Disoblige]

I don't know if it'll go back to the teens again to be honest.. Seems like it'll be a slow grind up until the week of the 21st, and then maybe you have a chance to get back in from the fear. Brainard saved miner's asses.

A lot of the fear was thinking Brainard's speech was a surprise one. It wasn't. It was planned a while ago, but the word just didn't get out there until Thursday. So the rumors started spreading and caused wide panic on Friday that Feds were trying to ease the market into a hike through Brainard who is usually dovish. When you add to the fact Rosenberg spoke hawkish tones on Friday morning, it's not surprising to see this happen.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
I don't know if it'll go back to the teens again to be honest.. Seems like it'll be a slow grind up until the week of the 21st, and then maybe you have a chance to get back in from the fear. Brainard saved miner's asses.

A lot of the fear was thinking Brainard's speech was a surprise one. It wasn't. It was planned a while ago, but the word just didn't get out there until Thursday. So the rumors started spreading and caused wide panic on Friday that Feds were trying to ease the market into a hike through Brainard who is usually dovish. When you add to the fact Rosenberg spoke hawkish tones on Friday morning, it's not surprising to see this happen.

how can we not see the market is rigged. the days of free market is over. if you cant beat them, join them.

[SilverRex]

sold half of my Jnug, basically cleared all the position I had bought a bit too early last week averaging in around 21.2,

leaving the other half from my 18.60 position (double up on friday) to ride if miner still has legs towards 29-30

will leave my core miners alone for the potential breakout. and will only buy more jnug if miner does move towards a final low in the 22-23 gdx

[SilverRex]

the fact that gold was down yet the miners were way up yesterday marked another interesting divergence.

here is an interesting article on this

http://inflation.us/gold-stocks-to-explode-to-new-2016-highs/

[SilverRex]

I have orders set if gdx does make the orange path (last chart I posted) and goes under 25 for an under cut low scenario.

otherwise I am happy with my current position if gold turns around here.

[el_fefes]

SilverRex, are you still holding UGAZ? I got out at +17%... good to finally see something green.

[SilverRex]

for all our gold investor here, I have another good trading idea to share.

if you look at how gold performed relative to the 200 day moving average. when it is stretched way above this number, it tends to snap back or consolidate until it catches up.

one think I am thinking is happening is that no matter how strong the fundamentals are when price is just too far away from it's mean, it will get sold off. There are probably massive scripts and auto buying and selling occurring in the back ground which may explain why gold is consolidate side way for so long until it begins to be met with alot of buying pressure.

gold's furthest stretch away from it's 200 day moving average has been between 120-150 dollars. (150 was the extreme because of the Brexit ordeal) so when it is this far out, it makes sense that gold cannot keep moving higher without waiting for the 200 day to catch up or a big drop occurs.

right at this moment, gold is only about 63 dollars away from the 200 day support. so the risk/reward is now back on the plus side.

I will begin to start monitor this as a way to scale down/take profit

[SilverRex]

here are some quick numbers just rough estimate.

when gold price is too far from the 200DMA, pretty much it moves into a consolidation or significant drop occurs to narrow the gap.

this year ever since gold crossed above the 200 DMA, here are the numbers when it tops and began to fall

132+, 135+, 125+, 113+, 160+(Brexit), 128+, 111+

and if it is close to the DMA, buying starts to pickup for a significant move to the upside

45+, 6+, 47+, 83+, 47+

see the pattern here. I think these are good extreme price points difference to consider for the next movement up or down. It is a good way to scale down or take profit or even enter/increase position sizes at these juncture._

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
SilverRex, are you still holding UGAZ? I got out at +17%... good to finally see something green.

I sold all my ugaz and bought Jnug last friday. May enter gain if there is an opportunity but right now I think my focus remains with the gold sector as it is trying to bottom where as natgas has already moved up quite a bit. (it can go both ways)

[ickyflex]

Ughhh oil, probably gonna tank again in the PM after API

[SilverRex]

oil and the energy sector has really gone out of favor this summer. if oil does not make a move soon, the slow grind will continue to push energy shares even lower.

looking at bte, it is sitting on a massive H&S neckline, technically a break would signal a huge drop down to the 3-4 area. Right now I do not think this would happen unless oil price collapses, and or a semi crash from the stock market occurs. It is always a possibility.

just looking at pure correctional support levels. the 50% retracement is at 5.29 (that is a possible target imo) next one is way down in the 4.40 area which I do not prefer.

oil isnt as excited to trade of late as the counts/cycles is getting difficult to read. I rather place my bet on gold.

I do have a small position still in this sector. May give the 5.29 area a try if it hits that.

Meg on the other hand looks a little better but perhaps it is because it has already hit the 61% retracement so technically it is running out of room to fall giving a false appearance that is is performing better. if Meg drops under 5.10 then that could be a serious implication.

[bspot]

Today was my planned day for a large scale out of JNUG.

Whoops.

[SilverRex]

I know I have posted 3 counts on the miners. but I mean leaning towards this scenario more.

http://i.imgur.com/qD1pU4p.png

[Disoblige]

Oh god help us if GDX drops to $23's...

It'll make me breakeven (at best) when it spikes up after no hike news :rofl:

[ercchry]

Yeah, I'm basically fucked... All I needed was one more up day... But noooooo

[SilverRex]

I am not sure what you guys are doing but a surprise drop to 22 for gdx was sort of expected from a distance. it wasnt a prefer count but so far it is still in play.

going back to the 3 possible scenario I cannot see gdx drop to 22 this fast and this soon without first going back up significantly due to alot of investor jumping in too early. if the previous chart where gdx does not make a lower low today or tomorrow and begins to turn back up looking like it has strength again, then I have to revert back to my ABC counter trend count which is a move back into the 29-30 area for a c of B wave. then a C wave down to 22.

if this plays out, hopefully you guys who sounded like you may have over exposed in the sector can still have a 2nd chance to scale down or rebalance your portfolio.

personally I am only using Jnug as a short term trade and holding core miners for the potential breakout. but I wanted to draw your attention to this gold chart.

as you can see, history has taught us that breakout can be fake only to lead into an intermediate degree decline. considering how long gold has consolidated, it 'may' be running out of time and upside could be limited.

So if gold suddenly looks good again, try to think the opposite and position yourself to take the draw down but have enough that you will be happy if the breakout is real.

http://i.imgur.com/4DTtEwW.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex



http://i.imgur.com/BNNEaa4.png

I wanted to remind you guys, if gdx makes a new low this week then that is the orange path. but if it begins to climb again, then the red path is the current technical expectation from many analyst out there.

however if and when we do see gdx climb back near 29, then we will have to see how the structure of the rally unfolds to determine if the red path is still on the table or a breakout is imminent

gold forming positive divergence this morning with the overnight low on the 2hr chart. will see if it can turn into something good

[SilverRex]

miners are right up against a down trend line also 5m negative divergence showing up. a H&S pattern showing up in the last 2 days. if miners remain extremely bearish it could turn around right here.

a break thru would give hope that we can still look for the wave c of B towards 29-30 in gdx.

sold 1/3 of my Jnug just for good measure here.

[bspot]

Unloaded half my JNUG and leaving it in cash.

I'm back in LABU now so I will likely be sitting on cash until gold sorts its shit out.

MCRB has been killing it. In since that dump to $8, now about to test $12 again.

[SilverRex]

as mention earlier, it is in a key zone, either it turns back down and continue to grind lower in a ending diagonal pattern which usually points to a bottom in 2-3 days time or a breakout occur and we can be on our way towards a higher high above 28.68

http://i.imgur.com/Ut8fwDf.png

[SilverRex]

oil inventory draw of 0.6m, saving the oil sector once again

[Meback]

Man. Rough. Its still trading down. Lol. Now what?

[Disoblige]

Anyone have thoughts of bio? XBI to go even higher? LABD looks like a good entry point at some point. I don't think it's ever been under $19 this year.

[SilverRex]

oil technically just doesnt look good at all right now. while I only have 10% in the energy sector I am scaling down a bit more until it becomes stable again. Natgas on the other hand looks very bullish imo we could be looking at 3.5 natgas in short order if the upside breakout occurs.

[ickyflex]

Oil surprise draw vs 5.1 exp build and it's down a dollar lol. The logic.

[bspot]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Anyone have thoughts of bio? XBI to go even higher? LABD looks like a good entry point at some point. I don't think it's ever been under $19 this year.

XBI has triple topped at ~$64.50.

It's also been consolidating in the $60s since August, and if you squint you can see a reverse head and shoulders.

LABD with a tight stop could be a good play if it tries for $64.50 again, but if SPY has another charge in it, I'd bet on the upside.

I may hedge my LABU with LABD near XBI@$64.50

[SilverRex]

gdxj gap filled and channel breakout. let see if this can translate to something else.

still cheering for the wave c of B move and positioned and trading like one.

http://i.imgur.com/ALKf0CH.png

[SilverRex]

well been looking for another silver stock play. sil.v was great but I think upside could be limited after an explosive move from 0.91-4.00. so I have been scouting other forum and appears many are happy with GPL (US)

I rarely research on the company itself and management, but if some of the big silver/gold investor that I follow are accumulating, then I will now pay some attention to it.

technically GPL has been in correction since May. which is good because the longer the consolidation the bigger the breakout (see sil.v for example)

things to note.

it has already corrected 50% and so far divergences are starting to show up. of course pending if silver moves explosively on the upside, then the bottom may be in.

however in an event where we get some sort of new low in silver (say to 18 dollars) then we could see GPL capitulate and hit the 1 dollar area which is 61%.

I have opened 1 position at 1.32 and will add another tranche if I see it hit 1.00 or lower.

this is more of a medium term hold, as once silver/gold prices resume upwards (next silver target is in the 23s) I expect GPL to potentially hit 2.5-3.00 as a minimum. If the 4 month correction was actually a major wave (II) then we may be looking at 3.00-5.00 for the next up leg.

http://i.imgur.com/VHmojB0.png

[bspot]

^I was holding GPL in May and got a decent amount out before it fell off a cliff. Seems to a be a solid hold.

[SilverRex]

I havent posted a chart on oil for a while. Let me show you why I am alittle concern with the energy sector at the moment.

ever since oil bottomed at just under 40 to end the intermediate degree correction. it moved up 3 waves to 49 and impulsively which was a good sign. but when it broke the all important wave 1 support at 43.39, despite rallying strongly there after. something was clearly wrong.

No matter if you are an EW expert or beginner a healthy 5 waves up should not break the previous wave 1 top. so now the 3 waves appears to be corrective. Now it is very possible oil price could continue to churn side ways until a breakout occurs. but my fear is a sudden collapse and push oil below 39.

given my personal count I believe the previous wave 3/4 is in the 42-35 area. A typical target could have oil wanting to test 34-35. Which happens to also be a common behavior.

so I am not doing anything with oil, and if we do see 35 oil, then perhaps there will be some very good opportunity to go long again in certain oil producers.

http://i.imgur.com/hJvUGbo.png

[SilverRex]

despite US data today was dollar negative, somehow gold still went down. however miners are still holding up relatively well.

the path towards an ending diagonal possible slightly diving under last week's low is still very much in play.

also remember the gold price and 200 DMA gap comparison? my rough estimate of 47 dollars that preceded to each low this year for gold. and right at this moment we are at 47 dollars. which is a good cycle low entry point. Unless gold is in some sort of intermediate decline, it should bounce soon, let see if this pattern continues to hold true

[SilverRex]

looks like the 47 dollar gap theory is working right on the spot.

gold is reversing big time here. what a shake out and now gold trying to kill the shorts

[SilverRex]

GPL's last major correction wave 2 was about 4 months long between Oct-Jan.

wave 4 this year has started in May and is also slightly over 4 months long as well. I think the timing is ripe for it to begin a multi-month rally that will exceed the top set this year. price now is a very good entry, if there are any significant drop further consider that a great entry.

;)

[SilverRex]

as suggested the ending diagonal pattern often signals a bottom is near. It did not quite break last week's low instead broken out early (thanks to gold's strong reversal)

if A=C, there is a good chance gdx will at least make it to 29-30 area.

I will once again take that opportunity to take profit and remove all my leveraged play.

while at this juncture I do not expect gdx to hit 22 not at least seeing gdx back above 28 first.

with today's rally, if price somehow crashes back down into the wedge under 26 then the quick drop to 22 may be immediately in play.

I hate to say it, but if gdx does hit 22, that is a lot of pain and will take out most investors who are fully leveraged. that is why I try to never exceed 25% of my portfolio in leverage play. market loves to take all of your money.

http://i.imgur.com/VXRJYvC.png

[Vanish3d]

it's dropping down to the wedge, so guess we are going to 22 !

[bspot]

NVAX down over 80% after hours after a failed phase 3 vaccine trial.

Bad news for LABU/XBI which had looked promising for a breakout.

1.65% of XBI is NVAX.

This will be a 4% hit on LABU.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
it's dropping down to the wedge, so guess we are going to 22 !

well technically we havent broken down back into the wedge yet. so far we have 5 waves up which was a very good first sign for a bottom.

the question is, will this wave 2 in progress be corrective. because if it is, it will setup for a sub 3 that should break above 26.7

it has already retraced 38%, typically wave 2 goes after the 61% level which is right at 25.99 (with the previous wave 1 top at 25.94) I suspect as long as we hold above this area, I continue to expect the next big move to be to the upside.

shall we fall and close under 25.99 especially 25.94 then it will technically remain extremely bearish and technical buyers will flee

http://i.imgur.com/PYztktw.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
it's dropping down to the wedge, so guess we are going to 22 !

well technically we havent broken down back into the wedge yet. so far we have 5 waves up which was a very good first sign for a bottom.

the question is, will this wave 2 in progress be corrective. because if it is, it will setup for a sub 3 that should break above 26.7

it has already retraced 38%, typically wave 2 goes after the 61% level which is right at 25.99 (with the previous wave 1 top at 25.94) I suspect as long as we hold above this area, I continue to expect the next big move to be to the upside.

shall we fall and close under 25.99 especially 25.94 then it will technically remain extremely bearish and technical buyers will flee

http://i.imgur.com/PYztktw.png

[SilverRex]

US consumer index beats forecast. dollar positive news is hurting gold this morning. Not looking good unless it can quickly recover.

now yesterday we got dollar negative news and gold surged initially only to fall pretty hard.

will it do the same thing and reverse the expected today? we shall see

[SilverRex]

gold has finally testing the up channel trendline.

its either here or down she goes

http://i.imgur.com/OJ5eGI2.png

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Anyone know much about resolute energy, REN on us exchange? Aug been huge. Debt but termed out. Recent wells are coming on huge.

I really wish i had pulled the trigger on this bad boy.

[SilverRex]

i know miners are trying very hard to bottom here. a rounded bottom seems to be now appearing. however the action in the last hour or so still looks very corrective.

if gold dives under 1300, the psychology of the 1200s would be quite scary.

http://i.imgur.com/8n4PYM1.png

[SilverRex]

nice bounce in gold. probably big money cant push it any lower and started to cover.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
nice bounce in gold. probably big money cant push it any lower and started to cover.

...aaaaand rejected

[SilverRex]

despite I am leaning towards a higher high before the fall. with FOMC next week only a few more days to go. clearly gold remains under pressure for what ever reason.

be prepare for miners for a chance to dive under last week's low

I know alot of people are waiting for the perfect entry between 22-24 area. Whether the market forces will allow it only time will tell. Despite I positioned myself weeks ago in anticipation for this very moment, it is still very daunting task to witness and trade these moves.

http://i.imgur.com/6dmAmkf.png

[bspot]

Took a stab at NVAX this morning.

Buying huge bio selloffs on companies with decent cash holdings after failed trials has worked pretty well for me so far.

Got in at $1.17, which could be potentially very fortunate timing as it's already been back up to the $1.50s. Usually the timing isn't this fortunate, but no one is saying it won't break down further again, there just really isn't much downside left.

Both MCRB and NVAX bottomed at a market cap roughly equal to their cash holdings.

MCRB is now up 46% off of its bottom.

Small sample size, but these are definitely not to be jumped on at open the day after news, usually there is continued selling, but often bottoming day 1.

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot
Took a stab at NVAX this morning.

Buying huge bio selloffs on companies with decent cash holdings after failed trials has worked pretty well for me so far.

Got in at $1.17, which could be potentially very fortunate timing as it's already been back up to the $1.50s. Usually the timing isn't this fortunate, but no one is saying it won't break down further again, there just really isn't much downside left.

Both MCRB and NVAX bottomed at a market cap roughly equal to their cash holdings.

MCRB is now up 46% off of its bottom.

Small sample size, but these are definitely not to be jumped on at open the day after news, usually there is continued selling, but often bottoming day 1.

Where can you find info on upcoming trial results etc?

[bspot]

http://novavax.com/page/11/clinical-stage-pipeline

[Disoblige]

Ugh, could all this rate hike BS be already priced in?

Seems to me that a lot of people expect no hike on Wednesday, which makes it appear that gold may not spike up as much as I thought it would. With the recent major drops on the miners, maybe it'll only recover back to where it was a week ago (best case scenario)? I highly doubt NUGT or JNUG can go over $25.

Plus, all the people who got in at $17-20 are going to profit take like crazy.

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot
http://novavax.com/page/11/clinical-stage-pipeline

No no, I meant like a calendar for all major biotech / med clinincal trial releases

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast



Check out ARIA. Going to breakout real soon IMO. Been buying them for a year now.

No problem, Redlined. Glad it worked out for you. I'm still holding my shares until Friday. I know things can go both ways very quickly, just figured I'd suck it up for once and take the risk.

Well, I guess patience pays. Perhaps I was too early to cash out but I am happy with the gains. Over 3 years of buying and accumulating and a 130% gain on my largest holding. Decided to sell it all. Going to buy a hefty chunk of BDT on Monday morning. BSpot, did you happen to hold this long?

[bspot]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


Well, I guess patience pays. Perhaps I was too early to cash out but I am happy with the gains. Over 3 years of buying and accumulating and a 130% gain on my largest holding. Decided to sell it all. Going to buy a hefty chunk of BDT on Monday morning. BSpot, did you happen to hold this long?

I bailed on it unfortunately. A good chunk went to MCRB, so not all bad.

Good for you for getting in early and being patient. I was wondering if you were still holding today when I saw it on my watch list. I think even if it has big upside, it's hard for you not to be happy with your gains, knowing this bastard likes to dump to $8 in a flash :rofl:

[SilverRex]

some weekend reading.

drawing some comparison between the USD and gold chart when you line them up after a significant move up. while in simple terms both were consolidating after a big move up. although the USD appears to technically getting weak to perhaps topped.

but for the short term, if gold's recent correction continues for months ahead for what ever reason, then we could possible draw some similarities between what USD did 15 months ago.

if it continues to follow it, then gold should be rising enough to break the orange wave 1 top which would be a false breakout follow by 1 more sell off to a lower low under 1302.

what it means is that the probability of this flag/consolidation breakout is imminent, the question is the final breakout and a successful backtest would be the next expectation. after that is really anyone's guess.

so based on this chart I am going to put my bets for next week that gold should be ready to enjoy a multi week rise. Even if gold dives under 1302 I think it will just mean it is following USD's orange wave reversal point 4, then we will still imo get an upside breakout.

if there is a lower low reversal pt 4, then the rising 200DMA is moving at a rate of 20 dollars a month. so that would be it in the 1280-1290 area. which could be the perfect landing stop shall this pattern unfolds.

http://i.imgur.com/HNNRjNh.png

[SilverRex]

next week is pretty big if you ask me. it will certainly set the tone leading up to and after the election.

what the Fed does next week will no doubt pave the path for the trading on so many sectors.

the least possible out come is a rate hike. One must not discount the discounted. that is why market is so volatile these days.

However has anyone think about what if the catalyst for gold to finally put in a recognition_phase and move into a wave 3 of 3 would be on the heels of the Fed shocking the world with a rate hike next week instead?

initially it would tank gold/miners under 1300, gdx_to 22 fulfilling all the technical lows and test of support. then it would completely recover and rally strongly because of the sudden panic in the stock market mass exodus into the flight to safety._

we've seen both dollar and gold moving up (e.g Brexit). then a dovish outlook statement appears because after the 2nd hike the 3rd will be pushed out even longer (from post election uncertainty this will then send the US dollar right back down along side the sell on news and buy the rumor begins which will continue to push gold higher.

then the Fed will rescue the market with another rounds of QE which again more gold positive news.

that is one possibility that I bet no one is counting on but can.

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by bspot


I bailed on it unfortunately. A good chunk went to MCRB, so not all bad.

Good for you for getting in early and being patient. I was wondering if you were still holding today when I saw it on my watch list. I think even if it has big upside, it's hard for you not to be happy with your gains, knowing this bastard likes to dump to $8 in a flash :rofl:

Good work allocating the money to another winner.

I am feeling a bit of regret not holding it now, but whatever. Like you said it's hard not to be happy with the gains. I guess I was just optomistic about it being one of those 5-6 bagger biotech stocks people get rich off haha. It will be interesting to watch the company now and not having a position in it. I had never been so invested in a single stock in my life, by far one of largest gambles! (Educated id like to think ha ha)

[SilverRex]

I expect some crazy moves this week. the current scenario I am leaning towards is for gold rising back to 1350-1360 and very possible it can create a false breakout from the down trendline. The idea is that once gold makes it back to this area, it is another great opportunity to re-balance your position in anticipation that there is one possibility that gold may still want to test the 200DMA around the 1270-1280 area.

I will most likely remove all my leveraged play during the next rally and will only re-enter if gold breaks 1300. Otherwise will hold the rest of my core position for the potential breakout

http://i.imgur.com/nbiW5GL.png

[SilverRex]

for those still following oil. while technically I am a bit concern with the indirection of late. but for the short term (assuming the stock market has bottomed and ready to embark on a new daily cycle rally (post FOMC?)

then oil has the potentially to head back to the 48-49 area.

it has bounced off the rising channel trendline as well as an inverted H&S pattern potentially making a bottom right here.

I think with the OPEC meeting coming up, the positive bet on the market may at the very least push oil up, but can it sustain a breakout? we will not know until it happens.

http://i.imgur.com/akG3eHD.png

[SilverRex]

also Natgas looks like it is quite ready to breakout. the wave 4 consolidation bottom appears to be completed. I am thinking NAtgas can reach as high as 3.5 during this breakout move.

there is even a very large inverted H&S pattern developing. so once we complete wave V, there should be a sharp wave 2 correction to back test the 2.5-3.00 area then launch towards 4.50 area

that will be the run I am more interested in playing

http://i.imgur.com/m6x9vky.png

[bjstare]

JNUG seems to be showing a fair amount of weakness today, despite gold being relatively flat. Not sure what to think, hopefully see some buying tomorrow, but who knows.

[SilverRex]

how many of you remember when I was using this chart to try and pick the bottom in May/June and I was even saying or was trying to tell myself to hold my position until the week of August 19 as the pattern suggest from the previous bull market that it would be topping in that area.

the update we revisit this again and looking back, it was truly amazing that it did top in around August 19. I even got myself to sold off 75% of my gold positions. sadly the lack of patience got me back into the sector a bit earlier than I wanted and I did not wait out the cycle bottom which is suppose to be this week.

if the pattern continues, worse case is a quick break down for a lower low, but any significant drop would be recovered and it will embark on a multi month rise into 2017.

http://i.imgur.com/Ty43ZaL.png

[bspot]

XBI with a nice breakout today then some weakness. Still holding LABU.

[SilverRex]

natgas finally breaking out

[Vanish3d]

anyone else having issues with RBC?

[SilverRex]

the 50% fib retracement at 5.29 obviously did not hold for BTE.to, the next likely support is at the 61% near 4.40

with a very small position. I will just hold this one thru and may double down at the 4.4 area.

[bspot]

Dumped LABU as I'm wanting a fairly large cash position going into FOMC tomorrow.

May re-enter a partial position after tomorrow if it gets knocked down hard. I'm holding enough other things that should pop with no rate hike I won't feel bad for missing any gains.

[riander5]

My life is filled with investing regrets... selling LABU at 33.... or not being in this whole nat gas rally lol.

Only thing i am holding is the boat anchor e to regroup once im back and stop missing all the gains!

[riander5]

Time for a quick short on NGAS though? Hitting previous highs from a month ago, RSI approaching oversold, looks like a nice spot for a wave 3 top for this 5 wave move.

Who's gonna do it? 50% retrace from here could send it back near 2.85

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
anyone else having issues with RBC?

YES!! Damn RBC DIrect Investing!!!
Getting 'Bad Request' non stop.

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5
Time for a quick short on NGAS though? Hitting previous highs from a month ago, RSI approaching oversold, looks like a nice spot for a wave 3 top for this 5 wave move.

Who's gonna do it? 50% retrace from here could send it back near 2.85

DGAZ is one the handful of bearish plays I'm holding through tomorrow as a short term hedge.

If things get wacky briefly, I want to sell some pops.

[bspot]

MCRB up 15% today. I've almost doubled up. Luckily I made up for that with horrible decisions elsewhere earlier this month :rofl:

[GT.....O?]

Originally posted by bspot
Took a stab at NVAX this morning.

Buying huge bio selloffs on companies with decent cash holdings after failed trials has worked pretty well for me so far.

Got in at $1.17, which could be potentially very fortunate timing as it's already been back up to the $1.50s. Usually the timing isn't this fortunate, but no one is saying it won't break down further again, there just really isn't much downside left.

Both MCRB and NVAX bottomed at a market cap roughly equal to their cash holdings.

MCRB is now up 46% off of its bottom.

Small sample size, but these are definitely not to be jumped on at open the day after news, usually there is continued selling, but often bottoming day 1.

MSTX just tanked due to failed results.... Is this another one you might jump in on?

[SilverRex]

hang on to your seats. gold is off to a strong start this morning.

already rebounded nearly 20 dollars to the upside since the low over night.

if gold can make it pass 1332 to create a weekly swing high that would give us another week of new highs

:nut: go gold

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex
hang on to your seats. gold is off to a strong start this morning.

already rebounded nearly 20 dollars to the upside since the low over night.

if gold can make it pass 1332 to create a weekly swing high that would give us another week of new highs

:nut: go gold

I'm just curious what makes you confident in this, given we have the wildcard of how the market will react to fed decision today?

edit: don't get me wrong, I hope you're right as I'm relatively loaded in gold right now... but I'm also not that convinced that technicals hold as true when you have govt announcements like this?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair


I'm just curious what makes you confident in this, given we have the wildcard of how the market will react to fed decision today?

edit: don't get me wrong, I hope you're right as I'm relatively loaded in gold right now... but I'm also not that convinced that technicals hold as true when you have govt announcements like this?

I have a strategy for gold up or down. although my near term expectation is a false breakout move. Market tends to do this alot, or shall I say big money pushing price or waiting for a breakout then unloading their shares.

Even if for what ever reason, there is a hike which will shock everyone, I think it will create a panic sell off across all sectors but gold will recover first.

[bspot]

Originally posted by bspot
Took a stab at NVAX this morning.

Buying huge bio selloffs on companies with decent cash holdings after failed trials has worked pretty well for me so far.

Got in at $1.17, which could be potentially very fortunate timing as it's already been back up to the $1.50s. Usually the timing isn't this fortunate, but no one is saying it won't break down further again, there just really isn't much downside left.

Both MCRB and NVAX bottomed at a market cap roughly equal to their cash holdings.

MCRB is now up 46% off of its bottom.

Small sample size, but these are definitely not to be jumped on at open the day after news, usually there is continued selling, but often bottoming day 1.

Up 40% on NVAX so far.

Up 74% on MCRB.

Did anyone else get in?

These failed trials are awesome. I've been watching them for a while, and you can't go crazy with the amount of capital you're dumping in, as once in a while they will get chopped in half again after the first major drop, but they seem to yield really good results lately with over selling on news.

[SilverRex]

nice positive oil reporting giving the entire sector a boost. good timing

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by bspot

These failed trials are awesome. I've been watching them for a while, and you can't go crazy with the amount of capital you're dumping in, as once in a while they will get chopped in half again after the first major drop, but they seem to yield really good results lately with over selling on news.
I haven't done too much research on them, but I feel like it could go the other way around pretty easily where no news would come out on them and you'd be left with a bag for a while. But yeah, I mean if you're putting in a modest amount in just for kicks, I don't see why not after doing your research on the company.

[bspot]

Originally posted by Disoblige

I haven't done too much research on them, but I feel like it could go the other way around pretty easily where no news would come out on them and you'd be left with a bag for a while. But yeah, I mean if you're putting in a modest amount in just for kicks, I don't see why not after doing your research on the company.

It seems like a decent cash position with no debt due short term, a decent pipeline, or really any pipeline at all, and any chance there is some doubt of the circumstances around the failed trial and you have a fairly safe play.

The trial info doesn't come out until a few days later, so if going in early I never do so with more than 5% of my capital, knowing that losing 2.5% of my capital is my risk tolerance.

I've been going with the approach on playing most of them rather than trying to be selective. When one blows up good on me, it will just be eating past or future gains.

[SilverRex]

i like comparing history and because the previous one continues to give me great forecast. lets look at it from a different angle.

as you can see from the previous hui (miner) index in the 2008 bull market advance. a neckline rising trendline was constructed using the previous correction/lows and the neckline continues to give support for the sector for years to come.

if it follows this, then we are virtually near that neckline in two possible scenario depending on when the line starts.

so either the bottom is in or we have one possible under cut low near gdx at 24.

I will place my buy order in around 24 if this plays out.
Even if the rally continues and gdx makes it to 29/30 I will still keep the 24 area in mind because I am leaning towards a false breakout. will re position myself and only dial back into leverage if the under cut low scenario unfolds

http://i.imgur.com/gwHI9hU.png

[Vanish3d]

so every time news is about to be out, GDX seems to drop off a cliff for a few seconds, catch all the stops then surge up.

If this time is the same, I'm gambling and trying to catch it on all counts.
bought JDST with sell order at 70 cents more, and I have a buy order of JNUG at 50 cents below current price.....

let's see if this pans out !:cry:

[Vanish3d]

nope. that didnt work lol

[bball2]

No rate hike, NUGT and JNUG doing very well :clap:

[SilverRex]

yup gold looking good to break 1332-1333 which is key weekly signal that will bring in further technical buying next week.

[bjstare]

sweet baby jesus. JNUG touching 20% gains. :clap:

edit: I'm out @ 21

edit edit: fck. Should have held out a bit longer.

[SilverRex]

we still have Yellen's words that can still topple today's gain or extend it further

gdxj is right up against a neckline. either it needs to breakout or risk selling off

[bspot]

Feels so good to unwind all of my JNUG. Flipped half to ABX and YRI.

[SilverRex]

Houston do we have a breakout?

http://i.imgur.com/w0dNpq7.png

[bjstare]

What chart is that?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair
What chart is that?

gdxj

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by bspot


Up 40% on NVAX so far.

Up 74% on MCRB.

Did anyone else get in?



I got into NVAX at 1.42 but only beer money amount so I'm not overly excited. Wishing I had some balls and threw some real money but it's a gamble either way

after hours is showing 2.15

[bspot]

Man is MEG lagging badly. I've been holding for $8 for what feels like forever. I know as soon as I decide to swing it 5s to 6s is when it breaks out :rofl:

[SilverRex]

ok so everything is coming together for gold. I hope everyone enjoyed the massive rally in the mining sector, 24% on Jnug was impressive.

after yesterday breakout on strong volume. We should now look for follow thru that it should still have 2-3 days of momentum to grind higher.

There are currently two counts on the table. Majority of the EW analyst that I am talking to are expecting this rally to be counter trend, meaning it will only produce a rally up to the 29-30 area c of (B) wave, then fall to a new lower under 25 (in RED)

personally I have a bullish alt count but it will require price to strongly move pass 29-30 area and turn that area into support.

what this means is that once price gets back to the 28.5-29.5 area. everyone will gets a 2nd chance to balance their portfolio again.

I will be looking to take my profits on Jnug. only keeping my core miners for breakout and will only buy back if the red path unfolds

http://i.imgur.com/dSJPDNZ.png

[SilverRex]

I see no negative divergence on MACD for gold on both 15m and 1 hour chart. this should mean gold is ready to at least make it to 1340+

selling half of my Jnug here. the rest if gdx gets over 29

[SilverRex]

miners pulling back, so far appears to be in a wave iv. there should be one more thrust higher wave v taking out today's top.

then we will see if this is just another head fake or a real break out. real breakout requires gdx to take out 30 and remain above this area for multiple days.

otherwise still leaning towards the head fake with the possibility of a big sell off

[riander5]

So what you are saying is that it can either go up or down. I have to agree with that

[SilverRex]

as you can see, silver is up against the down trend line that has held down every rally. Gold is similar near it's own between 1346-1350 and this would mark the 4th time gold is trying to breakout. although I have heard the the 4th time is usually the one that breaks out.

but until we see a sustain breakout + backtest. there will always be risk that it could top and turn around.

My personal bias is a true breakout because I have been bullish since Oct 2015. But it is nice to get some clear waves so that in the event it does drop, it will be another great opportunity to swing trade with leverage.

http://i.imgur.com/QyIlR8b.png

[Disoblige]

Miners are so weak compared to gold. USD strengthening keeping this down?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Man is MEG lagging badly. I've been holding for $8 for what feels like forever. I know as soon as I decide to swing it 5s to 6s is when it breaks out :rofl:

ever since oil looks technically damaged, I have sold Meg and put it in Bte instead.

looking at BTE right now, it is still in a giant down channel. So until it breaks out, there is no momentum on the bullish side.

every rally appears to attract sellers.

I may exit all my oil position if bte some how makes it back to the 6.00 area. and rather wait until there is a technical breakout and re-enter on backtest.

a typical wave 2 correction often hits the 61% level and so it is still possible it can go that low.

http://i.imgur.com/eg5QsfW.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Miners are so weak compared to gold. USD strengthening keeping this down?

yes this morning when gdxj was underperforming to gdx, that was a warning sign that miners is not behaving normally.

there is a lot of technical analysts calling for gdx to hit 22. so many remain caution with the latest rally and buyers are drying up fast. of course the counter positive argument is that the moment gold does breakout (real) it would cause a flood of panic buying.

so we just have to wait and see. My own strategy is to be able to play both. A core position for MT/LT and leverage on all the panic lows for ST gain as these extreme sell offs usually produce some sort of good bounce due to many investors trying to pick a bottom.