Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

right now I am not playing the biotech sector. but how many remember when it feels like this sector was lost and everyone was in a bit of a panic?

I thought big money was trying to manufacture a false breakdown just like how the miners did and moves were similar.

looking back with this, we all knew what happen after words.

EW suggest biotech is in a wave 3 of 3 right now.

http://i.imgur.com/GQ5VKhr.png

[SilverRex]

for those still looking for a good individual miner play. the one to watch is gold corp.

it never got the attention and move from the rest of the sector and so it's wave 3 is still in the cards. cant rule out one more possible low so anything near or under 20 is a great buy. I suspect this company will catch up and out perform other companies during the next up leg.

http://i.imgur.com/cOWgcOO.png

[SilverRex]

and lastly on GPL again, I've already talked about this one last week just standing back, the chart doesnt look any more bullish than this. impulsive up move, follow by corrective action.

I have already bought a position at 1.32, will add one more if it goes to 1-1.12

http://i.imgur.com/xqY3N6i.png

[Disoblige]

What the hell is happening to miners? Jesus.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
What the hell is happening to miners? Jesus.

possible back test from yesterdays breakout. still expecting this is a wave 4 correction. first spot 38% for gdx is at 27.5 which is about to be hit

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex


possible back test from yesterdays breakout. still expecting this is a wave 4 correction. first spot 38% for gdx is at 27.5 which is about to be hit

bought back my Jnug position at 13% lower
:nut:

im still holding onto believe that regardless of trend it has to at least take out the last peak with gdx at 28.68

[Manhattan]

Just curious if the traders in here benchmark your annual performance to compare against an index fund.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Just curious if the traders in here benchmark your annual performance to compare against an index fund.

Yes. I hold a small number of shares of an index fund (IVV), and also can see a chart of my performance against S&P500 and S&P500/TSX Composite in my webbroker. YTD, my USD account is mediocre (performing just under index), my CAD account is significantly outperforming index.

I think it's critical to make this comparison. If I could make more money just dumping my funds into an index ETF, sure as hell I would do that, it's way easier.

[SilverRex]

after hitting a short term top yesterday I think gold is taking a breather before it can move higher.

while it has produced a low level abc (correction) and has broken out this morning with some momentum to the upside. it is now a wait and see how much strength it has when NY opens.

I suspect the overall gold market in the short term is quite positive. and as long as the bottom for gold does not suddenly fall out (under 1320) the longer we linger at these prices 1330+, the more momentum it will gain in the weeks ahead.

if gold cannot muster enough strength to breakout to a higher high or even test the all important 1350, then we may be still witnessing a longer abc correction.

My eyes are current watching the 1330 area as there is a double support/fib level with a rising 200EMA that will soon support it underneath.

once gold hits 1350, we will know if we are going to get a breakout or a false one sending this sector back down.

personally I just want gold go close the week above 1333 that can setup the technical buying next week.

http://i.imgur.com/iXcXIp5.png

[SilverRex]

a quick update on the US dollar.

while I am suspicious on gold's advance and keeping an open mind that we could still see an under cut low before it embarks on a big rally.

it can also hold true that just when everyone including myself technically believes in a lower low in gold, gold then finally breaks out strongly to the upside.

in a scenario where the breakout occurs now. then the US dollar (see chart) will have to breakdown immediately.

looking back ever since it made a double top at 100 last year. due to rate hike hype. every rally has been counter trend and broken to the down side with impulsive fashion.

we had a 50/200 EMA deathcross sending the US dollar into bear market territory back in April. and every since dollar was sold at every major fib retracement target and neckline backtesting.

a large H&S pattern has also been spotted.

and now the time is ripe and the technical setup is there for it to break down as count wise it is now in a major 1-2, I-II, i-ii

aside from short term currency intervention, manipulation and reaction to positive US news, I want to see the US dollar tank sharply like now would be a good time.

so let the show begin

http://i.imgur.com/1ZCHgkl.png

[Vanish3d]

WOW nvax...
I'm liking this strategy of buying pharma companies after failed trials.

Thanks for the tips

[KappaSigma]

The junior im curious to see what happens in next 30 days. Great assets but bank is cutting line end of oct and will be overdrawn. Started a strategic exercise about a month ago to solve.

[SilverRex]

well the chart pattern for miners looks very bearish today. if gold doesnt make an aggressive assault immediately the next big swing for miner is to the down side.

perhaps gold heading to 1330 would be the right call

http://i.imgur.com/dmiwIrc.png

[Disoblige]

Sold JNUG for a small loss to keep profits from this month overall in miners. Rebalancing to prepare for biotech and wont get back into leveraged play until better entry point (perhaps low 17s).

[bspot]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Sold JNUG for a small loss to keep profits from this month overall in miners. Rebalancing to prepare for biotech and wont get back into leveraged play until better entry point (perhaps low 17s).

What's your Biotech strategy? I'm in LABD right now after taking LABU $43-$51.

Too much too fast, and looking toppy. We shall see.

[ickyflex]

Good old Saudi lol

[SilverRex]

gdx has reached the 61% fib level off the low from Pre-FOMC. completely given back all the gains.

if this level does not hold, then the wave C under 25 may have started sooner than I thought.

it could be a case of too many expecting the higher high wave c of B (above 28.68) and when it got close enough, big money just bailed.

gold is still relatively steady despite miners are weak. It will be interesting to see who is leading who here.

if gold can remain between the 1330-1340 until next week, a sudden breakout could change things very quickly.

although I may not write off the rally in miners just yet.

looking at this, so far it appears to be a clear cut backtest from the breakout. count wise, I do not see it technically damaged until price closes back under 26.40

http://i.imgur.com/B2cK58E.png

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by bspot


What's your Biotech strategy? I'm in LABD right now after taking LABU $43-$51.

Too much too fast, and looking toppy. We shall see.
I'm not in LABD yet, because I think there is potential to get in Monday sometime before the debate. But mainly I look at XBI and I see a short term pullback at the very least for a short term play with LABD.

And as you said, went up pretty fast and I believe when Hillary opens her mouth Monday night, this may be the catalyst to push LABD up a couple bucks.

At the very least, I see a great opportunity today/Monday for entry. And depending what happens, I might just exit on Tuesday or Wednesday if I'm happy with results.

I missed the low of the day today, so unless there is a selloff before markets closed to under $15.50, I'm going to wait until Monday.

[bspot]

LABD is still clearly in a down trend, but looking at this, I think there is a good shot at $20 if the bottom is in today or Monday:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_bdd0094a48ea01cac9e4607ac2246626.png

[SilverRex]

while gold technically looks good to start the week, miners isnt as healthy as most are calling the recent rise wave c of B topped near 28.5 for gdx

the current outlook is suppose to be a wave C low under 25. so I hope everyone is prepared for this scenario.

personally I am still leaning towards a more bullish scenario given too many analyst is calling for this drop and so I want to believe in the fact that the market will do the opposite. Even if there is a drop under 25, my suspicion would be that it could bottom in around 24 instead. Trying to figure out what is the best path to cause maximum pain by disrupting both longs and shorts.

[bspot]

Dumped all JNUG today and re-bought a partial position$1.50 lower.

Feels nice to have entry in the 18s instead of trying to average down from 22. If GDX does make it down to 25, I'll be loading the boat.

[SilverRex]

gold has finally about to test the 1330 area I mention a few days ago, amid taking a bit longer than I hoped. with gold opening lower possible dragging miners down to start. Must be gut wrenching time for those that are over exposed and trapped in the market at higher prices. (personally thanks to a couple of good swing trades and staying no more than 25% leveraged has helped me stay pretty stressful as gold continues to work off it's correction before the next rally.

Looking at this, I have to say, gold really needs to find support in around the 1330 area simply because there are a confluence of support here.

sloping channel line, 200 EMA, 38% level, previous resistance turned into support.

while I am not concern technically unless gold closes below 1320, it looks as though it still needs to make one more wave higher over 1342.

http://i.imgur.com/VedjD0t.png

[bspot]

Taking a bath on MEG. It's a very long hold for me, so not the end of the world, but I still look forward to the flexibility that will come when I unload it. Probably next year.

[dimi]

Originally posted by bspot
Taking a bath on MEG. It's a very long hold for me, so not the end of the world, but I still look forward to the flexibility that will come when I unload it. Probably next year.

I took a big loss on MEG 8-9 months ago. Don't know what I was doing holding it in the first place... Sold it and have made that up and then some shorting oil. The lesson I learned is trying to time jumps/drops when you know the overall trend is going the opposite direction is just stupid.

[bspot]

Originally posted by dimi


I took a big loss on MEG 8-9 months ago. Don't know what I was doing holding it in the first place... Sold it and have made that up and then some shorting oil. The lesson I learned is trying to time jumps/drops when you know the overall trend is going the opposite direction is just stupid.

Same. That's why I'm sticking in. I still feel oil, although largely sideways the last few months, is still in an up trend. I do think we see $50+ within a year, and I will hold until then.

[SilverRex]

Today Is a Precious Metals Option Expiration on the Comex, will see if that does anything to gold

[SilverRex]

there are divergences occurring for gold on the 15m and 1 hour setting. miners also interesting open in the green despite gold was down. I think a near term bottom is in and gold is due for a good rally imo

adding a 2nd tranche here for Jnug.

[bspot]

^JNUG getting slaughtered. Anyone on the sidelines must be laughing. I added more at 16.10

[SilverRex]

regardless of which direction miners will go, you cant rule out it may be now in a triangle consolidation pattern.

it is quite possible that the market may be in a side way grinds until the election.

perhaps range trading is the best strategy at the moment

http://i.imgur.com/6xEzVLv.png

[Khyron]

Originally posted by bspot
^JNUG getting slaughtered. Anyone on the sidelines must be laughing. I added more at 16.10

Was trying to stay out but can't resist joining the party at 16.15

[Disoblige]

Small position in at $15.95. Let's see what happens.

[bspot]

LABD now has a higher PPS than JNUG :rofl:

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by bspot
Taking a bath on MEG. It's a very long hold for me, so not the end of the world, but I still look forward to the flexibility that will come when I unload it. Probably next year.

Doing the same with BTE (Baytex). Thought I was being all slick putting in low-ish limit orders, but it has gone down significantly since then.

I have about 10g cash lying around that I'm super tempted to dump into BTE or MEG. It can't get much lower than it is now. Can it?!!? (I thought that last time when I bought BTE for 6, and it is now sitting at 4.9

[Disoblige]

Scalped JNUG as it seems to be resisting and not comfortable holding overnight.
Small position in DWTI @ $79.5 with lots of room to average down if need be.

I don't buy the whole "oh we may have reached a deal, but won't tell until November" BS.

[bspot]

Originally posted by Khyron


Was trying to stay out but can't resist joining the party at 16.15



Originally posted by Disoblige
Small position in at $15.95. Let's see what happens.


Well done!

Letting it run?

[asp integra]

Joined in on the JNUG fun with a small play as well. Lets see what happens

[SilverRex]

some earlier tweets are saying OPEC reaches deal to limit production, execution in November this is giving all sectors a boost it would appear

[bjstare]

I bought more JNUG @ 16.4, probably going to unload a bit here soon.

edit: sold half my JNUG at 18.8. Will probably get rid of the rest if/when it breaks $20.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair
I bought more JNUG @ 16.4, probably going to unload a bit here soon.

yup I had double up on my position. Will let my 1st one averaging at 20.00 go once it breaks even and let the one I bought at 16.00 ride it a bit

[Disoblige]

Poo, shouldn't have went in DWTI, but nice JNUG run! Got in again in the low $17s as it looked like it broke resistance.

[bspot]

What the hell just happened? I was gone for a few minutes and suddenly my portfolio is worth way more than when I left it...

[Vanish3d]

What caused this?

[Disoblige]

I'm out of JNUG. It's going up very fast and I've seen what profit takers can do to this. Not sticking around overnight.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
What caused this?

Opec deal actually worked out.

"Opec agrees to cap production at 32.5m BPD, Rtrs says. Was producing 33.69m BPD at end-Aug"

Short squeeze under way.

[bjstare]

Anyone think this will actually cause oil to climb this week? Time for UWTI? I hate buying leveraged funds after a big jump. I prefer to pick the bottom :rofl:

[bball2]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-decision-details-idUSKCN11Y2F2

[SilverRex]

it looks like we only have 3 waves up on the miners. will see if it can muster enough to give me the 5th wave higher so I can sell half of my Jnug

[bspot]

I'm unwinding positions like crazy. Best day evar!

[SilverRex]

bte is hot today

[bspot]

^MEG was up 17% of the LOD a few minutes ago. Unloaded almost half there.

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by SilverRex
bte is hot today

Well, fuck me. At the time I wrote that post, it was pretty flat. No point in loading up now....

[asp integra]

that was quite the swing from earlier in the day, go meg,jnug and Tck!

[bspot]

Bio meltdown alert:

ITCI
NASDAQ
13.67 27.85 (65.72%)
LAST UPDATED 6:44 PM EDT SEP 28

I haven't done any research yet, so no plans to buy unless I have some time to take a look tonight. Tomorrow could be a day of extended losses for bio overall, so I definitely wouldn't touch this too close to open either way.

EDIT: Apparently only $50MM cash with a burn rate of $60MM per year. Pipeline is all phase I/II.

Not looking as good as the last few, but possible trial concerns.

NVAX was trading close to cash value, as was MCRB. There are over 40MM shares outstanding, so this has a lot of room to drop before it's as attractive.

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by cjblair
Anyone think this will actually cause oil to climb this week? Time for UWTI? I hate buying leveraged funds after a big jump. I prefer to pick the bottom :rofl:
Me too. With that said, why not go DWTI? Could be in high 60s tomorrow easily if you think OPEC news is BS.

[SilverRex]

not much has changed for the outlook in the mining complex. Still expecting a triangle pattern consolidation to unfold with a big possibility that the breakout will be to the downside. so be prepared.

I will be trying to swing trade this

unless gdx can make an impulsive rally pass the 29-30 pivot area, all technical inclination is to the downside.

http://i.imgur.com/ePjDezp.png

[BavarianBeast]

CHK options :dunno:

[SilverRex]

as for oil. last week I suspected that oil price would bounce off the uptrend line and with a lower level reverse h&s pattern the next move 'should' be to the upside with a chance to test the 48-49 area.

I just did not realize it moved into this on the backs of Opec's bullish outcome. So which is it, is it all technical or was it the news? it often amazes me how more often than not, news actually fulfills the technical targets like it has 1 quick step ahead of it in anticipation.

a month ago I have stop paying attention to oil for the lack of direction and was expecting it to continue consolidate sideways which it is doing.

but yesterday's news has really given oil longs some hope for a potential breakout move.
Some bullish charts I have seen are calling this the catalyst for a breakout move and finally a chance for oil to push towards 60+

until I see such evidence of oil price breaking out of the consolidation a healthy backtest that does not translate into weakness (aka breaking below wave pt 'b') then I may increase my exposure in this sector.

otherwise based on a counter trend corrective rally approach where wave A often = C we could potentially be looking at a false breakout move.

I only have a 7% stake in energy. and may cash out as soon as oil breaks the trendline and will wait for further confirmation before jumping back in.

http://i.imgur.com/8NoZUza.png

[SilverRex]

and yes if you have not noticed, both oil and gold and even miners of late are in some sort of consolidation. This may be the theme until the election takes hold. which is why I want to start leaning towards range trading rather than trend.

[Vanish3d]

aaaand there goes JNUG.
I just unloaded JNUG and into JDST with tight stops

[bspot]

Originally posted by bspot
Bio meltdown alert:

ITCI
NASDAQ
13.67 27.85 (65.72%)
LAST UPDATED 6:44 PM EDT SEP 28

Up to $15.74.

I didn't hop on.

Threw some money at ADHD instead at $2.02.

Mostly because the ticker is great. They just had a hold put on their phase III trial by the FDA.

Down 56%

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
aaaand there goes JNUG.
I just unloaded JNUG and into JDST with tight stops

I was discussing the followign with a buddy recently...

On something thats as volatile as JNUG, what do you define as a "tight" stop? It can swing 10% in a matter of a few minutes, despite not breaking out (or breaking down). I usually don't set stops on these for that reason (unless i'm going to be away from the comp, and i set a conservative stop loss if I'm in the green)

[bspot]

All out of JNUG. Glad I started unwinding yesterday. Will be happy with my small profit, and sit out and watch for a while again.

Also dumped half my LABD, will let the other half run.

Trying to sit more and more in cash. Things are feeling wacky.

[SilverRex]

here we go boys. All you heavily invested in oil should have some good sleep this week

false or real, take your bet.

http://i.imgur.com/HxhQFTV.png

[bspot]

Out of MEG now too.

Not a ton of faith in OPEC. If this runs, I'm happy for everyone still long. I've been burned enough waiting for a good MEG exit and then watching it drop back to the low 5s over and over.

50% cash and scouting the next opportunity. Miners, oil and bio all felt more like "sure things" earlier this year. We've hit indecisive territory on all of them, and I'm not good at playing the smaller shorter term movements until some decent ranges are established.

[Manhattan]

Gotta be in it to win it.

[SilverRex]

spotting some negative divergences on oil. dumped all my energy share this morning essentially a wash for me. I will take the chance to buy back lower if not it only means more cash for me to buy if the drop in miners in the coming weeks unfold accordingly.

[bspot]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Gotta be in it to win it.

I always stay on the ride too long.

I got in on MEG averaging about $5.30, rode it up to $6.50, and back down to $4.72, adding to my position too many times and eating my cash.

Getting out at $5.90 feels not too bad at all.

If this was this was a major 1-2 setup since February, I'll regret this, but looking at oil charts from the 80s and 90s we have plenty of years to ride things up and down.

[SilverRex]

looks like we have a bit of equilibrium going on here for gold. I just need it to close above 1324 that extra push could set off the next rally, so who wants to give them a nudge.

it definitely feels like miners are hanging around waiting for gold's next good move higher

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by cjblair


I was discussing the followign with a buddy recently...

On something thats as volatile as JNUG, what do you define as a "tight" stop? It can swing 10% in a matter of a few minutes, despite not breaking out (or breaking down). I usually don't set stops on these for that reason (unless i'm going to be away from the comp, and i set a conservative stop loss if I'm in the green)

I'm in meetings constantly at work so I can't monitor it. To me a tight stop is ~1%. I'm willing to risk getting stopped out and it soaring in rather than not being able to action it then coming back -10%

[bspot]

Originally posted by bspot


Threw some money at ADHD instead at $2.02.

Mostly because the ticker is great. They just had a hold put on their phase III trial by the FDA.

Down 56%

Anyone jump on it?

Hit over $2.50 already today.

I'm going to continue to let this one run.

[RealJimmyJames]

I'd let that one fall for another week before jumping in. Great ticker though.

[BandW]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-29/gundlach-market-will-keep-pushing-deutsche-bank-lower-until-it-bailed-out

Might want to go long DB somewhat soon. I'd wager that DB will eventually get bailed out. Not a trade for the faint of heart, though.

[littledan]

anyone jumping into any cannabis stocks? I'm doing very very well on cnsx:sl and acb. got in to sl at .355 and acb at .90

[SilverRex]

gold especially silver is looking mighty this morning. Hope we end the week on a very high note and enjoy the weekend

"
U.S. consumer spending in August turned in the weakest performance in five months, reflecting a drop in spending on autos. Income growth also slowed in August as wages and salary gains were smaller following four strong months.

The Commerce Department says that consumer spending was unchanged last month after solid gains of 0.4 percent in July and 0.3 percent in June. It was the poorest showing since a flat reading in March.

Personal incomes rose 0.2 percent last month, just half the gain in July. It was the weakest income performance since a 0.1 percent drop in February. Wages and salaries, the biggest income category, were up just 0.1 percent after two months of 0.5 percent increases."

[ercchry]

BLO is finally getting some momentum! Super happy that I liquidated 1/3rd of my position yesterday.... not

[SilverRex]

natgas is a bit over sold lately, could be a good pickup here especially some areas are getting very cold in the midwest. picked up a small position at 36.5 UGAZ

[SilverRex]

as long as oil golds above 46.5, continue to expect more strength

[Manhattan]

Anyone else looking at Deutsche Bank at this price level?

[Marsh]

bought some THLD today @0.66..

[SilverRex]

not saying this is a sure fire thing. and despite gold's sudden reversal continue to hold down the miners.

here is an interest way to look at the gdx miners.

notice how when volume is extremely weak and falls under the red line shown here. it usually follows a spike in prices in the coming days.

it worked majority of the time except 1 I think and we could be on the verge of closing with extreme low volume again today.

considering I am still expecting a rise towards 28 in the 5 pt wave pattern. My bet remains to the upside first before it falls.

http://i.imgur.com/5lzMJjD.png

[SilverRex]

right now clearly miner is out performing gold. despite gold being down, miners are virtually side ways. if only gold can do it's part and move a few dollars higher would ignite the sector

[bspot]

Originally posted by bspot


Anyone jump on it?

Hit over $2.50 already today.

I'm going to continue to let this one run.

Looks dead for now. Out at $2.41.

20% locked in.

[bspot]

Took another swing at JNUG.

GDXJ back touching the long term up trend:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_4634622ec30e386b86c1d1d96b4da15a.png


Gold doing the same:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_f6d63502e35d95a5f711804c3889418e.png

The X factor- Dollar index getting squeezed:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_6a302ef267bdff99b86d7898e93f63f5.png

[SilverRex]

gold down but miners have a slight positive buying, probably due to new month with investor funds seeking value play.

however with all the talk of gdx heading down to 22 and even 18 now I hear, be prepare for this scenario as market loves to shake everyone out before a big move.

if we see gold drop to the 1260-1270 area that could be an extremely great buying level.

although from experience, it feels a bit too easy for everyone to expect gold to just keep dropping without a big rally.

I rather see a false breakout move as market loves to mess with both longs and shorts.

[el_fefes]

Any thoughts on UGAZ? Recent move from $45 to $35... time to buy again?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Any thoughts on UGAZ? Recent move from $45 to $35... time to buy again?

Natgas is a good play but you have to stomach the volatility. with places getting cold and winter upon us. I think natgas has good potential.

I have 1 position, and may add another if it drops more from here.

[bspot]

Originally posted by bspot
Took another swing at JNUG.

Sold at open for a small gain as the trend line was broken by the gap down. Phew.

[SilverRex]

personally I was hoping gdx still moving within the triangle pattern, the rally last week was very weak and cannot even make it 2/3 to test the upper channel. wave E typically can fail at the 2/3 level, but we did not even achieve that.

with gold making lower lows, it has not helped the miners one bit. it is now right back at the bottom of the channel. a close below 26 would probably mean lower low for gdx is underway.

however, contrary to everyone now calling for gdx to at least hit 22. I am going to play the contrarian factor and suggest if gdx breaks down this week, the 24 area makes for the perfect landing spot. I will convert some holdings over to Jnug if this level is reached.

http://i.imgur.com/PF5VdYF.png

[Vanish3d]

GDXJ and gold are flattening. Might be a good time to jump into JNUG

[ercchry]

Originally posted by ercchry
BLO is finally getting some momentum! Super happy that I liquidated 1/3rd of my position yesterday.... not

Up another 27% :bigpimp:

I've been waiting like two years for this to happen, product isn't even out yet so hopefully it keeps on climbing!

[bspot]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
GDXJ and gold are flattening. Might be a good time to jump into JNUG

Flat for too long. No signs of reversal. I think the elevator has another stop lower.

[Vanish3d]

I'm in at 16... hopefully if there is another stop lower, it's not TOO much lower.

[bspot]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I'm in at 16... hopefully if there is another stop lower, it's not TOO much lower.

Right after I posted that it showed signs of a bottom.

I screwed up, was in at 15.80, but bailed at 16 after it was looking flat on low volume.

Had to re-enter higher, average 16.36.

If it does drop lower, I'll just double up.

[SilverRex]

hold onto your seat belt here comes the break under 1300,

it is clear that gold has moved out of the rising channel. very weak for the short term, we will now see if the bottom of the flag continues and see if gold will bounce off 1297 area.

price is oversold as well so we will see if gold wants to test 1260-70 now or wait for another day.

as I have said, the general technical outlook for gold is a test of the 200EMA and gdx down to the 22 area. my personally believe is a false breakdown or an under cut low with gdx near 24

http://i.imgur.com/S9keUKN.png

[Vanish3d]

I want to cry this morning. :banghead:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I want to cry this morning. :banghead:

well we've been thru these kind of swings too often, not easy to time the market, so having cash to relatively scale in on each significant drop is the best approach imo.

i am fully invested but only with 15% Jnug. will begin buying another large position if gdx hits my magic number near gdx 24. and if it does head lower to 22 as some analyst is calling (which I will be surprised but not shocked either) will start converting my core holders into leverage.

with gold now having a strong sell off candle, a typical safe play is to wait until gold makes a swing low and stabilizes like it did similar to back in May.

[SilverRex]

if anyone hasnt noticed, many big mining stocks like abx, auy, kgc, ag, gg are hitting their 200 day moving average this morning.

so we will see if this is where the funds begin to load up. It is still possible if we follow the 2008 bull market path, miners can put in an under cut low this week considering we have broken the late august low to fulfill the lower low drop and possible divergence to occur if price swing back up.

EOD today and this week will be telling

[SilverRex]

we are like 20 cents away from gdx testing the 38% fib level which I think it hasnt done all year.
with the rising neckline just under neath which I am trying to guess, this could be potentially the very first good bottoming area.

again majority of the technical analyst I follow are still calling gdx down to at least the 22 area. can it be that simple? I am placing my bets near gdx 24 as any timing mistake at this juncture will be corrected and recovered much easily than those who over exposed themselves at the top. I cant imagine how those still holding gdx near 30 are feeling right now

http://i.imgur.com/ot3QVYW.png

[bspot]

Originally posted by bspot


If it does drop lower, I'll just double up.

Done and done. Looks like I was onto something yesterday. Fear of missing the big up move caused me to bail on my plan to wait for one more drop.

Would have been nice to scale in starting here, but oh well. As it drops, it every new position is that much cheaper and being I was sitting 60% cash before this, lots of opportunity to add all the way down and negate early losses.

[Vanish3d]

wow....
I'm definately over exposed with JNUG.
Selling now is just as stupid as loading up heavy in the beginning. It just looks like there is no bottom

is 22 even the bottom??