Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bspot]

And now we pray the daily candle on GDX leaves with a nice tail popping below the 38% but closes at it.


Averaged to $13.75, but as per usual on these days, it's not feeling great.

[SilverRex]

the 200DMA for silver and gold is where it is at. I may be tempted to get silver around 17.7

it reminds me when silver was dropping back in May and I said anything under 16 is a great buy. it poked lower to 15.8 then went on a 4+ dollar wave 3 rally.

I sense a repeat as anything under 18 is a great buy imo. time to start up an USLV position pretty soon here and ditch some miners

[SilverRex]

looking at gold on the monthly, 10/50 EMA has crossed over (just one more signal to confirm we are in an new trending market)

as you can see the 10EMA has supported the entire run between 2008-2011.

so the 1266 area is a perfect spot for gold to bottom. While it can certainly freak everyone out including myself if gold goes right pass it. but I will be more concern if gold takes out the 1200 low which would indicate a failed intermediate cycle that should not happen in a bull market

that would usher in concern that this is a bear market rally. However I am in the camp that a new bull market has started since the miners broke out convincingly which often leads gold.

http://i.imgur.com/0K1n39T.png

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by bspot
And now we pray the daily candle on GDX leaves with a nice tail popping below the 38% but closes at it.


Averaged to $13.75, but as per usual on these days, it's not feeling great.

My average is around 18.... and about 70% of my portfolio is JNUG due to averaging down and down and down.

[bspot]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


My average is around 18.... and about 70% of my portfolio is JNUG due to averaging down and down and down.

Well, here's hoping you come out unscathed. How long are you willing to hold?

[Vanish3d]

I have no clue. I hate holding leverage for more than a couple weeks. but already took the bullet... i'm sure once I sell it'll soar again

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


My average is around 18.... and about 70% of my portfolio is JNUG due to averaging down and down and down.

Yikes, hope you get out ok.


My avg is just under $17, but I only have a small fraction of portfolio in JNUG. I have YRI too, but I'm ok with holding that for a while.

[SilverRex]

I am looking for gold to bottom in around 1266 give or take. it would fit nicely to the chart on Barrick.

some times I try not to put too much faith in the basket of companies that make up the gdx fund simply because if you look at each individual stock, some are very bullish and some are not so much.

This could skew the chart.

So if I trust Barrick to represent the sector, then we are seeing is potentially a wave 5 of C move down. that once complete, should begin a new trend. The key is the convergence target. because it would be an area or path that both bulls and bears would expect. This would be a good place for everyone to either take profit or re-balance their portfolio once again.

I have sold my GPL position down 4.5% and bought another tranche in Jnug.

if and when the bounce happens, I will take profit when it back test the broken neckline. depending on how and where gold price is, I will decide if I want to hold it for further gains or just exit completely.

http://i.imgur.com/VZ2nGpe.png

[bspot]

I think I'll set a limit sell for the gap fill and dump it all again. Whether that ever fills is the question...

[SilverRex]

picked up a total of two position today Jnug at 11.50 and 13.78

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
I am looking for gold to bottom in around 1266 give or take.

200dma and a trend line hanging around 1261.

If both break, I think I need to cut everything loose and eat a massive loss. Saving some bullets, but getting low on amo for sure.

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_055fa1d35d131e5ccaa8d15744f1bcc9.png

[Disoblige]

Careful guys. For miners, the 20MA, 5 min resistance has been real key indicators and it rejected it again.

[SilverRex]

at least natgas looks pretty good. coming out of an reverse H&S, has some momentum for the short term

[Vanish3d]

fuck it, i'm done, sold everything

[bspot]

We tagged the 38.8% on GDXJ. Adding some more JNUG here.

Edit: Not quite, just about there

[Disoblige]

And JNUG closes very near LOD.

1270 seems to be holding pretty well throughout the day, but I'll put in a small position tomorrow depending what pre-market action is like. Not sure if 1270 is going to hold AH or not, especially with China on a week long holiday.

[SilverRex]

some food for thought

"the average 6-month return since 1975 for silver after a 3 standard deviation move (like yesterday) was a plus 17.3 percent, with one instance where the price of silver was +277.6 percent in the following 6-months."

personally I Think anything with silver under 18 and gold under 1300 is a fantastic buying opportunity.

although with such a massive sell off, bottoms typically dont end after 1 day and would need 5-7 day to settle. so alitte patience is required.

gold can obviously overshoot to the downside and get down as low as 1240 and silver to the low 17s but if what ever reason silver suddenly breaks under 17 thats a screaming buy

[SilverRex]

looks like we are finally getting the real energy breakout.

[mr2mike]

ACB
Aurora Cannibis has move to the TSX. Probably worth tossing money into that runaway train.

[secol]

still venture market? just shifting from cve to tsx-v. out of curiosity what is the difference between the two? they both seem to be venture markets owned by tmx

http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/aurora-cannabis-moves-to-tsx-venture-exchange-595858941.html

[SilverRex]

time to hold energy for a couple of weeks

http://i.imgur.com/dY8RMxd.png

[mr2mike]

Not sure. I'm sure someone in finance can say.
Probably some economic hurdles that need to be met prior.

[bjstare]

I got out of JNUG shortly after open this morning.

Going to keep my eyes open for the trend to reverse, and give it another shot. Sitting out for now though, after crystallizing a ~30% loss on that trade :(

Also bought a little more POU today. That stock has been fantastic for me, I've been holding this latest round for a couple months.

[SilverRex]

looks like gdx has taking out the neckline I was hoping it would hold. it is truly amazing that the herd (everyone calling for gdx down to 22) is actually panning out. typically the more people believing in something, the opposite usually occurs. perhaps this can still be the case if gdx suddenly bottoms here at 23 or overshoots to the downside under 20.

eitherway all technical indicators are quite bearish aside from the massive oversold gauge.

this is clearly a wave 3 move down, so unless things suddenly changes, there will be a small wave iv bounce follow by a lower low.

http://i.imgur.com/LEVGhZL.png

[SilverRex]

AG first Magestic silver looks like a good short term trading. expecting a good bounce from this sharp wedge and extreme oversold

http://i.imgur.com/mZWW9bL.png

[SilverRex]

picked up a small position in AG (or FR.to) for a short term play.

also Barrick outperforming all other miners probably due to this

http://247wallst.com/commodities-metals/2016/10/05/deutsche-bank-says-it-is-time-to-increase-gold-holdings-3-stocks-to-buy-now/

[bspot]

^Lol, DB also just stated gold is 25% overvalued. Why don't they just blow up so gold can return to the moon?

[secol]

i was looking at silver wheaton with gold and silver at a decent spot. going to see if gold and silver get lower before i hop aboard

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
looks like gdx has taking out the neckline I was hoping it would hold. it is truly amazing that the herd (everyone calling for gdx down to 22) is actually panning out. typically the more people believing in something, the opposite usually occurs. perhaps this can still be the case if gdx suddenly bottoms here at 23 or overshoots to the downside under 20.

eitherway all technical indicators are quite bearish aside from the massive oversold gauge.

this is clearly a wave 3 move down, so unless things suddenly changes, there will be a small wave iv bounce follow by a lower low.

http://i.imgur.com/LEVGhZL.png


So say you've overdone it on JNUG again... hypothetically... do you try unwind during wave 4, or say screw it, bring on 5 waves down, I'll buy even more, and hope that we start major wave 3 and it rains money down upon us?

[SilverRex]

another interesting article on the recent gdx sell off and the performance after a 10% drop since 2008

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/Content/analysis/2016/10/05/did-this-gold-etf-just-flash-a-buy-signal?&utm_source=10%2f5%2f2016&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MMC&trackback=mmcezine&utm_content=topheadlines

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot



So say you've overdone it on JNUG again... hypothetically... do you try unwind during wave 4, or say screw it, bring on 5 waves down, I'll buy even more, and hope that we start major wave 3 and it rains money down upon us?

I definitely would unwind some in anticipation for a further retest or drop lower. but in the market places there is no guarantees you just have decide what kind of position sizes you want to swing trade and what you want to hold.

I try to swing trade Jnug according to the counts./bounces and buying at extreme lows and leave my core position alone.

[SilverRex]

looks like the wave iv bounce is happening now

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
looks like the wave iv bounce is happening now

Just put in a limit sell for $13.53, just under the 38% retrace of this drop.

If it triggers, I will be extremely happy. Going out of town for a few days, so this seems like the best strategy to avoid holding the bag for a few months waiting for the recovery. I'd love to jump out and get back in lower.

I've averaged down to $12.69, so this would actually be a winning trade, but it was absolutely not worth the risk I exposed myself to.

Hopefully after doing the same thing a few more times I'll learn my lesson.

[Magic-8-Ball]

Originally posted by SilverRex
looks like the wave iv bounce is happening now

If this were to be a wave iv bounce in jnug...any ballpark how high you think it could get too? hehe, my magic-8-ball won't tell me.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball


If this were to be a wave iv bounce in jnug...any ballpark how high you think it could get too? hehe, my magic-8-ball won't tell me.

a typical retracement bounce is a 38% of the drop, Bspot has the right idea here.

[KappaSigma]

Kicking myself even harder for selling resolute energy so early. Damn

[SilverRex]

looks like gold is still fishing out a bottom this morning, any gold negative news will just keep adding pressure. the NFP report will be significant. and potentially yet again mark a bottom for a reversal or it can make a new capitulated low as well.

looking at the last few significant bottom for gold you can see once RSI reached extreme oversold, it usually takes at least a week to stabilize before it can begin to move back up. Even in a bear market, all 4 oversold lows all eventually was able to recoup and rally 80-100+ dollars the following 8 weeks.

so those that cannot stomach did constant grinding or new lows every day should just wait until a swing low is formed.

Gold is simply just very fragile, and bump pushes it back down

although from a different angle I am seeing alot of great stocks in great buying zones. alot of main miners/juniors have already hit their 50% retracement and some even 61%, so it is definitely closer to a bottom than it is a top.

gold still needs to head to 1249-1250 to test its 38%, the next probable support is a small wedge channel pointing to about 1258.

http://i.imgur.com/1cXggYe.png

[SilverRex]

oil continues to look solid after the breakout, however RSI is now in overbought territory, and could at any moment sell off to reset sentiment.

I will be looking to unwind all my energy shares today. Will take my chance to buy lower

price is a bit stretched from the 10 and 50 EMA so I will wait until it either retest these level or RSI reset near 60

the bearish alt count pegs oil still has a chance this could be a head fake wave (B) with (C) yet to come back down under 43

so like all things, always keep an open mind for the possibility of such event.

http://i.imgur.com/qMA4PA2.png

[SilverRex]

looking at BTE, if this is the start of a new intermediate cycle, it will have to break the down trend like near 6.2

of course if the oil breakout is real, then bte should able to take out this resistance quite easily since if the bottom is in for bte, it is now in a sub wave iii advance, with a chance to take out both over head resistance line. the rally in July was a false move, it was merely there to construct the new down channel line only to see if make another wave lower.

if this is the real deal, bte should technically now be ready to make an advance to take out the previous top at 9.00

http://i.imgur.com/6wEjfoR.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
l
http://i.imgur.com/0K1n39T.png

i just wanted to say if you truly believe gold has entered a new bull market then right now anything with gold under 1262 and silver under 18 is a great bargin imo. Due to the volatility, silver may even have a chance to crack 17 making it a screaming buy in the high 16s

the 10EMA right now is at 1262 and when it is in a bull market it never closes under on the monthly chart, now that we are temporary under it, I suspect any slight positive news or momentum in favor of gold will quickly push prices back above this.

so we are at a stage where everything is on sale. I wish I had stick to my own Aug 19 top and free up more cash on the side line to pick up more, sadly the notion of 'it' could breakout or runaway is equally difficult to control thereby just buy and forget it.

if last month's NFP wasnt big enough, tomorrow's will be bigger (for gold)

[SilverRex]

picked up a small play on ipt.v at .60

[Khyron]

I tossed in some USLV based on your comments (and just for fun) as well as keeping my Jnug/yri. Most of my energy is green so not fretting too much.

[Disoblige]

This is looking like a decent setup for miners to bounce nicely tomorrow morning, assuming NFP and unemployment numbers are less than predicted.

I'm looking at a potential entry into JNUG before close today; otherwise, I will be safe and wait until after the report tomorrow. Pre-market could get pretty crazy if it favors the miners, but with gold and the market looking pretty weak, I still don't see the risk being worth it as it could go lower if the reports are good.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
This is looking like a decent setup for miners to bounce nicely tomorrow morning, assuming NFP and unemployment numbers are less than predicted.

I'm looking at a potential entry into JNUG before close today; otherwise, I will be safe and wait until after the report tomorrow. Pre-market could get pretty crazy if it favors the miners, but with gold and the market looking pretty weak, I still don't see the risk being worth it as it could go lower if the reports are good.

correct, market loves to run thru all the stops on both sides

[SilverRex]

even though i am bias and an obvious gold bull, you cant deny some previous trading patterns. if you look back to the last couple of years and see that any time gold drops more than 40 dollars within a single day, the price of gold has always recover nicely (even in a down trending market)

so I sense what ever happens this week, we should get a nice bounce next week. I will try to take this opportunity to preposition myself in anticipation that gold can still make a lower low

[SilverRex]

possible new parallel channel if gold can form a swing here

http://i.imgur.com/TcZ478G.png

[SilverRex]

get ready for some fireworks in 30m for the NFP, it should move gold one way or the other. Although if the report is bad for gold I think it will just make an under cut low follow by a strong reversal imo.

for the short term I am looking for gold to break the sloping channel. a weak bounce would be targeting the 1270s area and a stronger bounce could be 1290-1300 as 1300 will now become a very strong resistance.

http://i.imgur.com/LOhKBD6.png

[SilverRex]

I spotted this chart on another forum and I think there is value in knowing the correction miner had in the last 16 years.

as you can see a the average correction is around 33%. roughly gdx has corrected around 27-28% so far. it can bottom here, but the average says it can be in the 30%+ and can push it down as low as 19-20. regardless if you are able to pick some miners up in with gdx in the 19-20 or at the current 22.x area, one thing should be certain, for a medium term or longer term hold. if this is a real bull market, we should see those 100-200% gains after a bottom is reached.

http://i.imgur.com/Vtci0n1.png

[SilverRex]

another pattern we were saw from the last couple of NFP days

has always been a trend changer for gold in the ST. it appears the report always go against the trend leading up to the report for gold. E.g. if the trend was down, the NFP will begin a new up cycle. if gold is near a top, the NFP will begin a new down leg.

So let see if this trend continues, if it does then the NFP will begin a new up cycle

[SilverRex]

update. US created 156,000 jobs vs 176,000 gold positive news

not out of the woods until we see the unemployment rate and the revision to last months numbers..

update. unemployment rate ticked up to 5%,

not sure what the struggle is could be a currency war going on, even if it goes low before it goes high that is fine. I expect the Chinese will be coming in to join to buying next week

update. I read revision is 7k less for the previous two months.

so with all gold positive news here, it's probably all technical now, wait till the dust settles then perhaps trend will emerge

[Disoblige]

Look at premarket action on miners. Gold is still weak too. What the heck.

[SilverRex]

we have some Fed circus going on yet again..

Fed's Mester says September jobs report was 'solid' this is keeping gold from exploding imo

we have a couple of more Fed speakers today scheduled. get ready for some volatility and crazy swings

[SilverRex]

well the NFP and gold price pattern lives on ;)

[SilverRex]

so far gold has tested the 38% fib level just like in May. coming out of RSI oversold. so far this new parallel trend channel is holding. While I would like to see this to become the new intermediate cycle bottom, EW counters are still projecting gold to test 1200 (after this dead cat bounce)

time will tell if they are right or not.

but one thing personally I do believe is that, if gold does hit 1200 and silver say 16s. I think one has to buy with both feet. because I believe if this is a new bull market, the monthly EMA which is at 1263.75 today will continue to support the new trend. so any drop below this will quickly revert back to the mean within the month

http://i.imgur.com/SaX5NKi.png

[KappaSigma]

Besides Resolute and Lilis energy, anyone else know any smaller players with Permian basin exposure?

[SilverRex]

would it not_be hilarious when Chinese comes back next week to find gold price back to where it was 1300+ and all their accounts were stopped out and no opportunity to buy back or buy lower. its a currency war and US could have an agenda to make life difficult for China for having the SGE_and trying to dethrone them in the currency world._

Silver looks like is flagging on th 5m chart. there should be more upside considering all mining stocks have produced a swing low, this will attract more technical buying pressure imo

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
picked up a small play on ipt.v at .60

Nice call

[Disoblige]

Look at the volume on JNUG, it's way more selling and less buying on the dip. It's kind of struggling to go higher. At least gold is holding $1260, for now...

Edit: And it broke. $1255 coming up.

[SilverRex]

gold backtesting the trendline break, moment of truth if momentum is to continue.

selling my small Natgas position to free up some cash. 36.6-43 was a good swing trade. also sold my bte position near the high yesterday due to overbought condition. will wait until oil price retest the 200EMA near 48

[Vanish3d]

so mad at my massive JNUG losses that I just picked up some JDST at open.... If you cant beat them, join them

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


Nice call

sadly the perfect plays are usually the ones I have the smallest position size. same with Natgas, havent been wrong once since I started trading it the last few weeks but has always been only a 5% stake

[SilverRex]

if this is the start of something big, gdx at 23.10 and gdxj at 38.10 must hold. otherwise it only confirms it is still looking for a lower low.

[Vanish3d]

and out

[Disoblige]

Still on the sidelines on the miners for me.
Mester will speak at 10:45 am and she is a huge hawk.

Then there is George, but the kicker is Brainard (dove) again but that happens after markets close.

So I may put a small position in before Brainard talks and hope China can also boost the market come Monday. JNUG could very well be red in the afternoon, so I'm guessing around $9.50-9.75 area would be my entry.

Edit: Huge dump. Just waiting to see now. Should have jumped into JDST.

[SilverRex]

this could be the divergence swing low for the perfect reversal. despite gold down 8 dollars from being up earlier, miners are hanging around and slightly gaining ahead. this is a very good divergence

[SilverRex]

Natgas is on fire, sold too soon, but small stake so not much to be excited about

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Natgas is on fire, sold too soon, but small stake so not much to be excited about

I'm still holding a medium stake. Thinking of selling it now and buying back lower

[SilverRex]

gold make a lower low, miners did not. I personally think the counter trend bounce is starting here.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


I'm still holding a medium stake. Thinking of selling it now and buying back lower

I read one technical study that Natgas is in an ED(ending diagonal) pointing to 3.20

[SilverRex]

I think a bottom is near for miners, looking at Kinross here, it looks like a very clear 5 waves down and we are in the final 5th of V (C)(II) imo

if this is a counter trend bounce, then we get one more lower low between 4-4.5. So either it had bottomed today, or we get one more drop.

if kinross (along with the rest of the sector) is ready to make new highs, then the obvious evidence is to see price close and trade above 5.50

http://i.imgur.com/IZcf0xJ.png

[el_fefes]

Into JNUG at 10.50 ish :drama:

[SilverRex]

re-entered gpr.to (GPL) at 1.54, sold earlier in the week and buying back lower.

[SilverRex]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/theres-one-very-simple-reason-why-precious-metals-were-pummelled-week

[bspot]

I've learned to never get too excited about gold prices overnight, but 1260 just got taken out already

[bjstare]

Oil price jump on API draw down. Does this mean we should sell before the real (opposite) Eia results are out on Wed? :rofl:

[troyl]

API not out until Tuesday afternoon.

[Disoblige]

The oil rally today appears to be based on Putin saying Russia is open to supporting OPEC freeze/cut.

Oil rally so far has been majorly based on speculation. My bet is it will crash down hard if OPEC cannot deliver. But at the very least, they bought themselves time until the end of November.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by troyl
API not out until Tuesday afternoon.

:facepalm: right, duh. nevermind me, still recovering from the weekend I suppose. haha

[SilverRex]

so long as gold does not close below 1250 which would suggest lower lows to come, I am still expecting a bounce back to the 1275 area. 1300 if momentum and news supports it.

those who follow CoT readings, they are still very bearish and could still paint gold hitting the low 1200 area to really push out all the long traders. So prepare for the worse of scenario

[littledan]

Originally posted by littledan
anyone jumping into any cannabis stocks? I'm doing very very well on cnsx:sl and acb. got in to sl at .355 and acb at .90

... I highly recommend you guys at least look in to each of these...

SL @ 1.40 and ACB @ 2.30

[sabad66]

Originally posted by littledan


... I highly recommend you guys at least look in to each of these...

SL @ 1.40 and ACB @ 2.30
i feel like it's a bubble right now and scared to get in.

market cap on ACB is something like 300mm right now based on those stock prices. I am actually a client of Aurora and i do like them and see their potential, but at this point i don't think they are worth a third of a billion dollars.

[riander5]

Back from vacation and crudes up above 51. Need to go away for 2 and a half weeks and forget about investments more often

[secol]

Originally posted by sabad66

i feel like it's a bubble right now and scared to get in.

market cap on ACB is something like 300mm right now based on those stock prices. I am actually a client of Aurora and i do like them and see their potential, but at this point i don't think they are worth a third of a billion dollars.
then play the swings and set a stop loss. i went in on them last week and sold a bunch for 13%+ gain in about two trading days

[littledan]

Originally posted by sabad66

i feel like it's a bubble right now and scared to get in.

market cap on ACB is something like 300mm right now based on those stock prices. I am actually a client of Aurora and i do like them and see their potential, but at this point i don't think they are worth a third of a billion dollars.

I don't necessarily think this will bubble out. At current production rate of ~7000 kg / yr, they would gross around $50 million. With plans to expand their production facility by 10x that could grow to over $400 million by 2018.

[ercchry]

The biggest thing with the industry that has me on the sidelines is government... for any meaningful growth it is going to take having a recreational aspect to it, the medical side is relatively pretty small for the amount of LP's out there... with the promises from the liberals and Obama's stance on not policing on a federal level things look great... but that can all change really quickly, don't forget about all the international treaties the USA and us are apart of either.

BLO is my only exposure to it, which is a policing play really, so legal or not testing will still exist

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex


http://i.imgur.com/qMA4PA2.png

oil has now reached the last of resistance zone near 52. while it could still push higher, I sense that with the current SM finally breaking out to the down side to complete the wave C of 2, it has the potential to pull oil down.

looking for oil to pull back to the 47-48 area and back test the previous breakout line.

for gold, we have FOMC minutes being released at noon. If gold makes an under cut low, I expect very good recovery as gold still has not back tested the 1275 area or even the 1300 area. so a good bounce is still yet to come. (of course not unless the rally to 1275 has started this morning, gold failed to close below 1250 so no lower low just yet)

[SilverRex]

not much has changed. gold has been pretty boring in both direction. however it has a slight edge trying to breakout of a consolidation.

so far it still has not closed below 1250, so I am continuing to expect some sort of rally back to the 1270 area as a bare minimum with the high side into the 1290s.

If gold takes out 1250, then watch out below. the drop could bring gdx down to the 21-22 area which is another 10% drop or 30% drop in Jnug. be prepared. I will be buying with both feet if I see Jnug in the 7-8 range.

http://i.imgur.com/zHFoJfy.png

[SilverRex]

just wanting to add a chart on gdx miners.

while majority of the EW community are still expecting any rally in the gold and miners to be a counter trend move follow by a lower low.

There is still a very small possibility that the market can and may have bottomed. One scenario is the leading diagonal pattern that was developed with an upside breakout. Not to mention wave 5s are usually the most difficult to predict as it is an ending wave and price can be truncated or end early.

if we have in fact marked the bottom, then we need to see 5 waves up, 3 waves down (in RED) then a new high.

so while I will be taking advantage of any good bounce to reduce my leverage. I will be paying attention to this scenario.

imo, as long as gdx does not close below 23, I think we can try to anticipate it. That is why I will continue to just let my core miners run in the event a lower low does not come to fruition. But if it does, I will be ready to add

http://i.imgur.com/BMfikUf.png

[SilverRex]

it appears Natgas has reached it's upper target range in the 3.4-3.5 area. Price should be topping soon as it has completed a 5 major waves up. Now expecting a major 3 waves down for wave 2 correction to take place that could bring Natgas down to the 2.5 area

http://i.imgur.com/IexOlP2.png

[SilverRex]

like I said, watch gdx at 23 closing below this means the targeted 21-22 is very much in play and the entire side way consolidation could just be a giant flat correctional wave 4.

the lack of silver participation today is one warning sign

[bspot]

Miners showing strength over gold. Lets hope they're leading. The $USD can piss off and die any time now.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Miners showing strength over gold. Lets hope they're leading. The $USD can piss off and die any time now.

there are technical EW'ers calling USD to make a 5th wave to new highs. That could be scary for gold. Then again, gold can rise with the dollar as well.

for the short term, I want USD to close below 97.25 to start damaging the bulls technically.

[SilverRex]

while I am leaning towards a bearish outlook on oil in the short term, that could change if oil can print a weekly close above 52.

with the general stock market technically fulfill the wave C drop (current reversing) the big wave 3 move to higher highs could begin as early as this week or perhaps after the election. We shall see when the market decides to abort the correction to begin a new rally.

[SilverRex]

excuse the large charting

here is a generational count (not mine) on natgas...

with all these generational bottoms and lows occuring, can we say massive inflation straight ahead?

http://i.imgur.com/wo6LATA.png

[Disoblige]

Whoa miners. I sold JNUG way too early :cry:

[SilverRex]

ok

lets play that guessing game again.

while everyone calling this a head fake, dead cat or counter trend and expecting to see 1180-1200 gold prices still.

one theory I continue to try and believe is that gold is following the late 70s run. where it never corrected more than 10%. If this continues to mirror or hold true, then gold cannot break 1237.5 (from the 1375 top)

since gold got very close, the bottom may be in, unless there is an under cut low where price would bounce off between 1237.5-1341 which to me may be difficult to do.

so let just say gold did bottom, then what we now need to see is gold to make an impulsive upside move and turn 1265 into support. If it can do these and in time recapture above 1305, then we may have a real take off..

yes in that scenario we look back to this day and ask ourselves what the hack just happened, why didnt I buy lol

http://i.imgur.com/za1u6nY.png

[SilverRex]

another angle on gdx, a perfect rounded bottom forming. if this is the case, I am expecting it to be topping soon follow by a 3 wave correctional handle.

if breakout occurs, short term target is back above 25 with the possibility to fill the previous gap

again the same technical warning doesnt change. if gdx closes below 23 which is more than 61% retracement of the 22.5-23.7 rally, then not only does it kill the cup and handle pattern, but it resumes the lower low lies ahead down to 21-22.

http://i.imgur.com/dl05srS.png

[bball2]

Scaling out of UGAZ / UWTI, hopefully get a chance to buy back for lower if there's another dip.

[SilverRex]

reduced half of my Jnug at 11.9

[el_fefes]

Out of JNUG for +7%

Good time to get in DGAZ?