Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex


was your stop triggered?

it met your objective didnt it, but when a market keeps moving, the way to catch it is to start using a trend indicator like moving averages and previous day lows as your gauge. because once it trends it will continue to produce a higher low in a up market and a lower high in a down market

No, my 4.4 didn't hit, I ended up selling at 4.65. All that got skewed due to the massive gap up with contract roll overs. oh well, I guess I can't complain about profits, just sucks leaving money on the table

it's quite oversold now, so maybe time to jump into UGAZ

[FlamingC19]

Any interest in UA? They're getting hammered right now...

[Vanish3d]

miners and gold trying to make a run at it.

[SilverRex]

gold corrected 9.8% since the top at 1375 and continues to follow the 70s pattern of not correcting more than 10%

if one solely believes in this, he/she would have jumped in with both feet on Oct 7 when gold first hit 1240, which potentially (if gold continues higher) could be the perfect bottoming spot.

also if anyone recalls, I posted the chart on the monthly 10DMA a couple of weeks ago, with just a few days left this month, my bet is that we should not close below 1266 (10DMA) if this was truely a bull market

any sudden drop would be quickly reversed.

one could have profit the entire gold bull market and down by just trading the 10DMA which is one reason I give it more weight

http://i.imgur.com/hfbogKi.png

[SilverRex]

with gold break above 1275, it is looking real good that the bottom (may) be behind us.

I may take my profit on Jnug (bought at 12.10) when gdx.gdxj hits close to 26/44

it does look like miners now have a good 5 waves up off the bottom. which is the first requirements of a new trend. now the key is to wait for a 3 wave correction. real fun will begin then..

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
with gold break above 1275, it is looking real good that the bottom (may) be behind us.

I may take my profit on Jnug (bought at 12.10) when gdx.gdxj hits close to 26/44

it does look like miners now have a good 5 waves up off the bottom. which is the first requirements of a new trend. now the key is to wait for a 3 wave correction. real fun will begin then..

You'll hold Jnug till gdxj is 44? not till the gap is filled at ~42.9?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


You'll hold Jnug till gdxj is 44? not till the gap is filled at ~42.9?

sure it can reverse at 42.9 but im eyeing the 50DMA/trendline which is 44 for gdxj and 26 for gdx

[SilverRex]

as much as I would love to see gold make further gains here, it isnt out of the woods just yet. as you can see it remains in side a rising channel which can still be a bearish pattern with down side potential.

if one isnt in yesterday's low, it is best not to chase and wait for confirmation of price breaking above this channel or a significant pull back or some sort

http://i.imgur.com/79hgIAO.png

[SilverRex]

havent looked at biotech for such a long time, but last word is that it is in a wave 2 correction and very near complete. the 61% retracement is just a bit lower at 262 for IBB and 56s for XBI. if labu goes under 30 bucks, i could make a case for picking up a small position

[ercchry]

I feel like biotech is probably going to be messy till after the election and (fingers crossed) Clinton makes a statement on what sort of regulations she wants to see on pricing of drugs... which would put us probably at least into February

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by ercchry
I feel like biotech is probably going to be messy till after the election and (fingers crossed) Clinton makes a statement on what sort of regulations she wants to see on pricing of drugs... which would put us probably at least into February

the entire stock market is pretty much on a wait and hold until after the election also.

Im only interested in a short term trade if I see the right price level hit

[Disoblige]

As long as Hillary gets elected, that will push bio down further immediately without her saying a word. I would stay out of bio until after the election, unless you want to gamble. And if I were to gamble, I would gamble on Hillary winning for a quick LABD spike.

[Kloubek]

Bought Twer stock on a tip that I received late. Almost immediately lost a few grand. But it's up 19% today alone, so I'm a pretty happy camper after a lot of sweating. :)

[bspot]

Originally posted by Disoblige
As long as Hillary gets elected, that will push bio down further immediately without her saying a word. I would stay out of bio until after the election, unless you want to gamble. And if I were to gamble, I would gamble on Hillary winning for a quick LABD spike.

I just don't see how it's not already priced in. Unless immediately upon being elected Hillary makes some bold statements about drug price policies, I think the assumption has been there for quite a long time that she's in, and there is risk to profits.

[Vanish3d]

looks like gold and miners heading lower. Happy I got out of JNUG near the top.
Not happy I got out of DGAZ at 4.6 and now tempted to buy back at over a dollar more.:thumbsdow

[bball2]

Crude oil spike back up near yesterday's closing after a half million barrel drop in us stockpile.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Natgas indeed topped last week, now in wave 2 correction for a couple of weeks or even months. will look for a good entry once a bottom is formed.

last week's chart. looking good so far, sadly I dont like playing the short side in an bull market as surprise can usually be to the upside

http://i.imgur.com/IexOlP2.png

Natgas coming down hard, right on schedule.

although I suspect it is now beginning to get oversold and could bounce any time. Might go for a short term play if it can dive under 3.00.

over all I am looking for these level for wave 2 bottom 2.7, 2.5 and 2.3

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
Crude oil spike back up near yesterday's closing after a half million barrel drop in us stockpile.

the spike happen to back test a previous channel breakdown line.

still looking for oil to at least to retest the 46-47 area

[Vanish3d]

Into UGAZ! let's see this bitch turn around

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Into UGAZ! let's see this bitch turn around

i might join you if I see a slightly better deal at 32.8-33.2

[Vanish3d]

you're just about there.... maybe I should've waited !

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
you're just about there.... maybe I should've waited !

my limit order triggered. 1 position at 32.99

[Vanish3d]

shit son, i think we both should've waited !

How does technical analysis account for new contract gap up?
on the charts, it looks like it gapped up, but had it not changed contracts, it would've been much much lower

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
shit son, i think we both should've waited !

How does technical analysis account for new contract gap up?
on the charts, it looks like it gapped up, but had it not changed contracts, it would've been much much lower

correct, would have been in the 2.7s had it not been the contract roll over.

I am only playing it small and will add another position starting at 2.7, 2.50 follow by 2.30

dont mind testing the waters here for a bounce, but I dont have a problem holding it either. nothing go straight down or up forever. if you scale in appropriately and at the right price, a good bounce will put your back ahead.

[Vanish3d]

I must say, you seem to always pick very close to the perfect entry point. You just got a quick bounce. we'll see if it is sustainable

[Disoblige]

wow, UGAZ went from $31.75 -> $34.50 after I got back from lunch. WTF!

[Vanish3d]

and i'm out at 35.2

[degeneratetrader]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
and i'm out at 35.2


in at 32.8 out at 34.71 as well

[bball2]

Damn definitely missed the train on UGAZ today :eek:

[SilverRex]

as long as gold does not close below 1265 today, I am still believing in that gold will get out of this funk and test 1290-1300 area.

gdx needs to remain above 23.81 to have a shot at closing the gap and 50DMA near 26

[Disoblige]

The dollar is crazy strong. Looking to exit my bear miner positions soon and stay on the sidelines for a bit to see what gold does. Starting a small position into JNUG if it breaks into single digits again, averaging down if it goes down to $7-8.

Still keeping an eye on biotech; will be going in LABU with a decent sized position when it gets to the 25-26 range.

[bball2]

Damn it, I closed off a bunch of Suncor call options yesterday, would've been up another 20% if I held on another 24 hrs!!

[cloud7]

Originally posted by bball2
Damn it, I closed off a bunch of Suncor call options yesterday, would've been up another 20% if I held on another 24 hrs!!

Wish I held on to my SU... I held it for the longest time without it doing anything so I finally sold them all a couple of weeks ago... big mistake.

[SilverRex]

here is a good read on the big picture for gold and gold stocks for the years to come

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/the-single-most-important-buy-signal-for-gold-stocks

[Vanish3d]

sold my UGAZ yesterday at 35.2 and just bought back at 33.2

let's see if we can repeat

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
sold my UGAZ yesterday at 35.2 and just bought back at 33.2

let's see if we can repeat

gradz, im not the only one with good timing ;)

[degeneratetrader]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
sold my UGAZ yesterday at 35.2 and just bought back at 33.2

let's see if we can repeat


was busy studying and missed the train on this one. damn

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex


gradz, im not the only one with good timing ;)

Thanks, got out at 34.9. I'll wait for a better entry point. This thing is so volatile

[bspot]

Holding CEMP. it's going to open well below my stop. God dammit.

[BavarianBeast]

Well, I've bet the farm on Ariad today.

I just could hold off from selling my complete stake in Suncor and putting it in Ariad. Fingers crossed :nut:

[SilverRex]

looks like a stronger than expected GDP is driving gold down this morning. certainly if we are to see 20 gdx, the move has to happen between now and next week. (so get your dry powders ready)

however silver is out performing gold this morning, perhaps an early indicator that it is buy into weakness mode. will see how the miners react. if a drop in gold = flat or slight advance in miners than we know downside will remain limited.

[bjstare]

JNUG looking mighty attractive again

[SilverRex]

i knew with gold dropping and silver didnt quite follow strong enough was a sign, now gold is trying to make a run upwards

[bjstare]

I got an order filled at 11.32.

Have a tight stop set, we'll see what it does today.

[Vanish3d]

In JNUG at 11.4 let's go bitches

[SilverRex]

biotech hit their 61% level this morning, picking up 1 small position in labu under 29

[SilverRex]

taking a poke for a short term bounce on biotech xbi, not only did it hit 61% fib level it potentially hit a rising parallel channel. sure the 200EMA at 54.11 also has potential but im just playing a small position

http://i.imgur.com/5Gsdjw7.png

[SilverRex]

taking my profit on UGAZ at 35.59, considering my ideal entry is to see natgas back down to the 2.5 area I will wait for a better entry.

after Yamana miss on earnings it is getting close to it's 61% level as well. I may be tempted to increase my core holding if I see a good price in the low 4s for yri.to

[SilverRex]

gold is still begin capped at 1274/1275 level. perhaps a chance this may continue to be the case until close to on or after the election.

doesnt matter I will be looking for any significant price down as a buying opportunity.

[bjstare]

Well that successfully blew past my stop haha. I moved it up a bit after I saw it climb, glad I did that.

[Disoblige]

I'm still sticking to my guns, still room for bio to go down especially with elections very close. Wouldn't feel very confident in it unless you somehow got LABU in the 28's this morning. And even then I would not hold this into the weekend.

Miners are very weak, I would not even touch them until JNUG hits single digits next week. Heck, it might even hit 9's today as it's Friday (weekend selloff). No confidence.

I see a lot of money to be made in bio and gold in the next couple weeks. Be patient and ready :)

[SilverRex]

apparently reason why gold is gaining such strength is this

FBI has opened investigation into Hillary's email

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/us-markets.html

[SilverRex]

next and last double resistance at 1280, fib level and channel top.

does gold finally have what it takes to breakout if it can close above 1280 on the hourly I will say its a true breakout. a Ro4 breakout as well

http://i.imgur.com/8tJVEvN.png

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
apparently reason why gold is gaining such strength is this

FBI has opened investigation into Hillary's email

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/us-markets.html

I guess market is thinking Trump might have a fighting chance, which if he wins, gold should pop

[Disoblige]

Wooooooow! Crazy. And oil is dumping now as well.

[SilverRex]

now that we have broken above the all important 1275 resistance, it should turn into heavy support. I will begin to question the legitimacy of this rally if it doesnt

[Marsh]

Nothing came of OPEC meeting this past weekend (surprise surprise) hence oil selloff today

[SilverRex]

havent posted any counts on meg and bte for quite a while. But looking at it today, pending no outright crash with oil back down to under 45. the bullish view is to see oil find a bottom between 46-47 then both bte and meg will look ripe for a sub wave 3 move.

I have re-entered a small stake in both company to see if this 1-2 count remains valid. I will be using a mental stop loss. as long as the previous bottom in late sep holds, I will continue to trust this count. both company has already corrected 61% off the bottom, so definitely potential for the next up swing if oil plays it's part.

http://i.imgur.com/9Xuk8BZ.png

[SilverRex]

oil backtesting the previous trendline breakout. again if oil closes below 46, then that is a concern, until this happens, the general rule is, breakout, back test, then move higher

http://i.imgur.com/vTOSkhB.png

[SilverRex]

so far ever since gold broke to the upside (above 1275) and also (above 1281), it continues to trade like it is a true breakout.

looking at the monthly, Oct has come and gone and sure enough, my suspicion that if this is a real bull market, the 10DMA will continue to support price where by it should not close below it. anything below was a great buying opportunity (under 1266 last week) now it is 1270

also the 1970 following where gold does not correct more than 10% remains intact as 1375 to 1240 is 9.8%

not sure if gold is ready to make a run here now or has to wait until on or after the elections. but every passing day the technical outlook continues to look better.

next test for gold is to hit the price 1300-1305 (closing back this area) will have severe bullish implications.

http://i.imgur.com/DyIgzWM.png

[SilverRex]

biotech looks like it is very near a bottom. looking like a good wave v of (C) being completed this week. as long as it does not break the previous low at 240, the next leg up should be a powerful one.

http://i.imgur.com/wmkeNxc.png

[SilverRex]

natgas is coming down on schedule. my own sweet spot is to pick them up between 2.3, 2.5 and 2.7

[Vanish3d]

did I miss the boat on JNUG or is this a great time to jump into JDST just for the day hoping to fill the lower gap?
In the last month or so, it seems every time GDXJ rallies it is immediately followed by a significant correction.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
did I miss the boat on JNUG or is this a great time to jump into JDST just for the day hoping to fill the lower gap?
In the last month or so, it seems every time GDXJ rallies it is immediately followed by a significant correction.

there is always opportunity to get back in with gdx possibly opening above 25, it may now wants to fill the gap just slightly higher in the 25.5-25.7 zone. that is where the 50DMA is and I suspect is where everyone will unwind.

if you are incline to go short, I think waiting for a bit higher price with stop over 26 would be a good attempt

[Vanish3d]

I'm a gambling man, into JDST at 24.3.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I'm a gambling man, into JDST at 24.3.

good luck bro,

even if miners have bottomed, this latest move may be only a 5 waves up and we can still get a wave 2 pull back into election day.

so I am selling my last Jnug position looking for a buy back.

keeping my core miners though

[SilverRex]

this is the current expectation for myself we could get a false breakout to trap bulls only to see price pull back in a wave 2 heading into and on election day, then pop

http://i.imgur.com/H5M0Uwp.png

[degeneratetrader]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I'm a gambling man, into JDST at 24.3.

$$$

[Vanish3d]

nope. got out at break even. I should've cashed out when it hit 25.xx

[ercchry]

Guess I can't be mad about 20% gain in a day... but you guys got me scared on gold this morning and I sold my miner too early!

[Disoblige]

WTF just happened to oil?

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Disoblige
WTF just happened to oil?

Looking at 10min delay but... looks flat? Gasoline on the other hand :eek:

Pipeline offline that feeds 1/3rd of the east coast

[Disoblige]

My DWTI just skyrocketed through the roof. $2 in minutes.

[bjstare]

on google.com/finance UWTI and DWTI aren't showing up at all, and they're showing weird after hours trading numbers from last night.

Anyone else having this problem? For the record UGAZ and DGAZ do the same thing on mine. :nut:

[stealth]

UGAZ on Google was showing old data for me... Like 5 days old, and wouldn't update.

[bspot]

Holding SQQQ and LABD and miners these days and loving life. Recovered from my CEMP disaster.

Normally I'd be getting itchy to flip LABD for LABU, but everything looks like it may have room to drop and when it does turn it's going to base a bit first and give everyone a chance to lock in gains.

[Vanish3d]

Just got into JDST at 23.3 and hoping for end of day quick crash to 24.5 is... here is to hoping.
I'll get out end of day regardless

[Vanish3d]

Aaaand i'm out at 24.1 - close enough !

[Disoblige]

Gold miners closing pretty strong today heading into FOMC meeting. Should be an interesting day tomorrow for gold. Let's see if it can break $1300 using that as a catalyst.

Sold all my DWTI @ $74.50 for a profit today! One of the few times I actually sold near the high of the day before dump.

[yipb]

Anyone know what happened to vrx ?

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by yipb
Anyone know what happened to vrx ?

Rumors of them selling their stomach drug for $10 billion

[degeneratetrader]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
did I miss the boat on JNUG or is this a great time to jump into JDST just for the day hoping to fill the lower gap?
In the last month or so, it seems every time GDXJ rallies it is immediately followed by a significant correction.

JNUG is heading to the moon last 2 days

[ickyflex]

14 Mill build :banghead:

[SilverRex]

well we are here folks, miners has filled the gap is trying to breakout, and gold has backtested the all important 1300-1305 area. this is a very key area and last resistance for bears if the trend remains down.

I believe the bottom for gold is in, however I wanted to believe gold would have trouble breaking this area on the first pass. I have sold my AG/FR.to position this morning.

looking to buy lower if possible

[ercchry]

Dgc I guess had some pretty terrible earnings down over 13%! Has to be an over reaction... especially now with gold over $1300

[SilverRex]

for oil despite the huge inventory and weak oil prices, bte and meg is holding up extremely well and has not broken the previous low. I am going to guess this is a sign that the oil drop is over done.

the worse case scenario is to see oil break 45 which is my own line in the sand number, then both bte and meg may have a shot at testing the low 4s.

[SilverRex]

just wanted to caution, momentum starting to build on miners/gold, gdx can go as high as 27. that is why I only look for buying on dips as in a bull market, surprises are usually to the upside.

[asp integra]

Originally posted by degeneratetrader


JNUG is heading to the moon last 2 days

Lets hope JNUG keeps going!

[Vanish3d]

is the market gonna move with the fed speech? I don't think anything new will be said

[Manhattan]

What happened to westjet? Posted huge profit yesterday and down big today.

[bspot]

Back in on CEMP.

Crazy drop this week from $23 to $7.50.

I'm probably early getting back in, but I'm willing to hold this for months. The drop was due to concerns over liver harm from the antibiotic they are seeking approval for.

It's in a class of drugs that all have liver concerns, and would be the first antibiotic in this space since 1999, with projected sales of $2B.

Market cap right now is $400MM.

Adcom goes tomorrow I believe. If that goes well I will sell the pop, otherwise the bigger play is to hold for a few months for potential approval which could easily see will over 100% returns.

[SilverRex]

remember the pattern for the last couple of months where the Fed announcement often reverses the immediate short term trend of the gold market. well this time gold is in an upswing, so if the pattern continues, we should get a drop, hopefully this is where I can look for some re-entry

[ercchry]

Not sure why the fed would even bother doing anything right now... there is no way they are going to cause waves less than a week before the election, it's purely going to be lip service

[degeneratetrader]

in JDST at 21.91...but what do i know. i'm also accepting donations

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by degeneratetrader
in JDST at 21.91...but what do i know. i'm also accepting donations

same at 22

[SilverRex]

despite the knee jerk reaction having gold made a slightly higher high, miners are unable to sustain and looks weak, looks like miners are exhausted and needs to retrace

[Vanish3d]

Out of JDST at 23.3
and back in JNUG at 14 lol

I never learn my lesson !

[degeneratetrader]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Out of JDST at 23.3
and back in JNUG at 14 lol

I never learn my lesson !

out at 23.11 tempted to do jnug...who says wild west doesn't pay off ?

[SilverRex]

you know miners are running out of buyers when gold is still 13 bucks up yet some miners are now in the red

[bjstare]

Anyone holding JDST overnight?