Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Disoblige]

^^ Yeah I get what you mean.

On a different topic, ACB and RTI halted trading at close today. Acquisition?
Man, I sold a ton of ACB today, I would be super cheesed if it spiked the next day.

[secol]

Originally posted by Disoblige
^^ Yeah I get what you mean.

On a different topic, ACB and RTI halted trading at close today. Acquisition?
Man, I sold a ton of ACB today, I would be super cheesed if it spiked the next day.

http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6343063997151701&qm_symbol=ACB

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Disoblige

That's true, but I'm not very familiar with options yet; it's kind of a whole new can of worms for me. I'm playing around in my practice account, but that's it.

But yeah, I was thinking of buying some GDX calls today leading into tomorrow :P

I know there are a million places to learn about options. Where is the best place for the 'options for dummies' short version that gives just the basics and can have me trading in my practice account in a day or 2?

I like the idea of instead of investing 10K in 1 place, I can invest $500 in 20 spots for around the same risk

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by secol


http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6343063997151701&qm_symbol=ACB
:cry:

[bspot]

SilverRex, if gold spikes hard during FOMC, are you going to dump JNUG and keep actual miners? I'm going to be stuck in a meeting which will be slightly terrifying. Half tempted to set some lofty limit sells for my HGU and if they trip, yay.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by bspot
SilverRex, if gold spikes hard during FOMC, are you going to dump JNUG and keep actual miners? I'm going to be stuck in a meeting which will be slightly terrifying. Half tempted to set some lofty limit sells for my HGU and if they trip, yay.

I don't understand why gold will spike. rate hike is almost certain. market knows that and it's already priced in. The formal news will likely drop gold a little bit, then perhaps it starts to recover putting it all behind us, but what scenario will cause gold to spike hard? Unless they decide on no rate hike

and yes I know i'm not SilverRex lol, thats just my expectation

[riander5]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


I know there are a million places to learn about options. Where is the best place for the 'options for dummies' short version that gives just the basics and can have me trading in my practice account in a day or 2?

I like the idea of instead of investing 10K in 1 place, I can invest $500 in 20 spots for around the same risk

Its not the same risk.

Options have the stock go in the right direction, AND have time decay against them.

I recommend going to tastytrade.com for a good education on options, although they are obviously skewed towards selling covered calls. Good education either way

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
SilverRex, if gold spikes hard during FOMC, are you going to dump JNUG and keep actual miners? I'm going to be stuck in a meeting which will be slightly terrifying. Half tempted to set some lofty limit sells for my HGU and if they trip, yay.

well buy the rumor and sell the news. the general idea is that once the news comes and go, I expect the dollar to fall and gold to rise.

I guess it will depend on how much of a spike. if Jnug runs up anywhere between 15-20% I am very likely to take profit off the table.

gold has not produced a swing high just yet, it still needs a few more dollars (breaking today's high) will do it.

for the moment, as long as gold remains above 1159, gdx above 21 and gdxj above 34.4 I will continue to hold onto all my positions.

still cant rule out a complete reversal with this sector still hunting for a new low. I will dump my fr.to and Jnug if mentally those 3 areas are breached to the downside.

[bspot]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


I don't understand why gold will spike. rate hike is almost certain. market knows that and it's already priced in. The formal news will likely drop gold a little bit, then perhaps it starts to recover putting it all behind us, but what scenario will cause gold to spike hard? Unless they decide on no rate hike

and yes I know i'm not SilverRex lol, thats just my expectation

Haha, I only mentioned him as I know he's holding leverage and actual miners, which is where I'm at now.

No hike would send things rocketing for sure, I think if they go dovish on the rest of the year it could do it to.

I've seen too many days where the candle on gold has immense upper and lower wicks on news days, so playing for that is something I've considered in past.

[Magic-8-Ball]

Originally posted by SilverRex
if 60.50 was the bottom of this correction in biotech, I would like to see 5 waves up (currently only 3 waves up) then another wave 2 correction back to current areas then taking off.

breaking above 64.5 is another sign the bottom may be in.

if biotech breaks under 61.5 without making a 5th wave up, then we could still be looking at lower prices with the 58 areas still on the table

http://i.imgur.com/gHc8jkt.png


Hehe, question session for SilverRex. I have been watching the Biotech sector (XBI) closely and it seems to be flirting with the 50% retracement level for the last few days. Any thoughts on whether it may retest the 38.2% level, or head lower to the 61.8 level? Any prediction one way or another how the FMOC outcome will affect it? Seems to me that in consideration of your last post about this...it could be headed lower...

[SilverRex]

during this multi-month gold correction I've added the following to my mainstay.

ndm.to @ 1.66 (although I did a quick in and out this past few days so technically I got it 0.28c lower)
usa.to @ 0.24
gpr.to @ 1.54 (doubled up during pull back) now @ 1.64
ipt.v @ 0.60

the nice thing about these stocks is that they dont get affected as much even if gold was to drop. but when gold makes a new run, they would attract liquidity and begin to move.

as I mention ndm.to was first out of the gate having to move from 1.50s to 2.70 in a matter of days.

will be planning to hold them until I see 100-200% return.

they make up about 30% of my current portfolio

My other two core
k.to average 4.5s
yri.to average 4.6s

fr.to and Jnug are my short term swing trades position

oh and I also have a 5% stake in labu (biotech)

[SilverRex]

btw, this is an example of what happens when you have a plan and dont stick to it.

6-8 months ago, when miners and gold were moving up like it just wont stop. I told myself that one strategy to not get myself caught without any position in this sector was to sell off my junior mining shares (yamana and kinross) and convert all shares to Barrick. Which is a large cap mining stock. reason being, during a correction, junior miners tend to correct deeper than big caps.

sure enough, I even picked a seasonal high target time frame to exit right in the middle of August.

precisely where the top were before the swoon began.

had I coverted all my core shares into Barrick. I would have reduced the amount of pain. as both Yamana and kinross had corrected 50% while Barrick about 30%.

then once I feel it is closer to the bottom than it is the top, I would convert back to juniors because it would 'should' perform better during the next up leg.

This goes to show, even I cant follow my own plan :banghead:

well I have to still be pretty happy considering I am still up 75% in my portfolio since I started trading again back October 2015 after a multi year hiatus. Some of my gain was eroded during this steep gold sell off, at one point I was up 150%

[SilverRex]

I heard Mr. Trump has a meeting with tech exec today at around 2pm eastern. I wonder if this is the next cataylst to push biotech in to the next up cycle.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball



Hehe, question session for SilverRex. I have been watching the Biotech sector (XBI) closely and it seems to be flirting with the 50% retracement level for the last few days. Any thoughts on whether it may retest the 38.2% level, or head lower to the 61.8 level? Any prediction one way or another how the FMOC outcome will affect it? Seems to me that in consideration of your last post about this...it could be headed lower...

personally it is hard to say if it would drop further. But I will be ready to double up my position at the 61% level for xbi if it gets there. However I think IBB is the one to watch and because IBB has already hit it's 61% level, xbi is being held up unless IBB falls further down to the 76-78% fib level.

today's tech meeting with Mr. Trump might just turn this sector around. from the big picture though this is what the current count suggest.

even if this is only a 3 waves counter trend move, I think there is still very good upside potential before she falls. the convergence target is where I have my eyes set.

http://i.imgur.com/l33CgUU.png

[Vanish3d]

I'm going against the trend till 12pm.

into LABD at 17.8
into JDST at 35.4

[Disoblige]

Surprisingly gold is holding up quite well 2 hours before FOMC.

[Magic-8-Ball]

Originally posted by SilverRex


personally it is hard to say if it would drop further. But I will be ready to double up my position at the 61% level for xbi if it gets there. However I think IBB is the one to watch and because IBB has already hit it's 61% level, xbi is being held up unless IBB falls further down to the 76-78% fib level.

today's tech meeting with Mr. Trump might just turn this sector around. from the big picture though this is what the current count suggest.

even if this is only a 3 waves counter trend move, I think there is still very good upside potential before she falls. the convergence target is where I have my eyes set.

http://i.imgur.com/l33CgUU.png

I see...so, IBB @ aprrox 300 let's say, would have LABU at Mid 50's or so...give or take. Am I right?

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Surprisingly gold is holding up quite well 2 hours before FOMC.

almost every single time, gold/miners head one direction before FOMC and instantly reverse.... if this is true then i expect gold to drop like a brick and JDST to run (at least for a few minutes)

[Disoblige]

Sold off a big JNUG position for a scalp profit. Not sure if I'm going to play JDST, but definitely going to play a position of JNUG on the dip in 3-4 different parts.

[Vanish3d]

worked out so far !
out of JDST at the drop and into JNUG at close to bottom ---- now lets see gold rally lol

Edit: looks like I wiped away all my JDST gain by picking up JNUG. Should've held to my guns.

[SilverRex]

putting a stop below the low on the announcement. sector may want to flush out with a new low before rebounding

[Disoblige]

Looks like it's somewhat settling after the dump. Looking for an entry now.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Looks like it's somewhat settling after the dump. Looking for an entry now.

me too, after initially stopping out, I have re-entered with stops below new low. if it gets taken out will then wait a few days to assess

[Vanish3d]

I re-entered JDST
shooting for new lows or a sell at 40

[Kloubek]

For those in on Aurora such as Disoblige (though it seems you aren't?) not sure if you've seen this:

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/aurora-cannabis-and-radient-technologies-sign-mou-on-joint-venture-tsx-venture-rti-2183047.htm

Don't really know how this will affect anything. Seems good for Radient; unsure about how it affects Aurora.

[Disoblige]

Yup, posted something about it yesterday. Wish I held onto it but I had a big position and didn't want to risk it. And it happened end of day so not like I could predict it.

[secol]

Originally posted by Kloubek
For those in on Aurora such as Disoblige (though it seems you aren't?) not sure if you've seen this:

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/aurora-cannabis-and-radient-technologies-sign-mou-on-joint-venture-tsx-venture-rti-2183047.htm

Don't really know how this will affect anything. Seems good for Radient; unsure about how it affects Aurora.
i don't see how it can be anything but good. allows them access to proprietary extraction methods that should be A-OK with Health Canada. better product, more efficient, positions them well when they get their oil license. no cash out the door, just debenture

[Disoblige]

Did you guys enter JNUG in the 6.1x? ;)
Looks like a decent entry point.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Did you guys enter JNUG in the 6.1x? ;)
Looks like a decent entry point.

I just switched my JDST to JNUG....

i hope we don't see 5.xx

I can't stomach any more losses. My damn portfolio is down 50% mainly due to gold crashing and a few bad trades being on the wrong side of the action.

[Disoblige]

Uh oh... Not looking so good. New low of the day.

[ercchry]

Wtf oil...

[Vanish3d]

if only I held on to my JDST from this morning at 35....
I never listen to myself.

looks like its heading to new lows

[Disoblige]

There is a ton of volume on the bear side, so I might cut it loose as more pain might continue tomorrow for gold.

[Vanish3d]

annd there is the new low.... how much lower??

[Disoblige]

Market close is the only thing stopping the hemorrhaging lol.

[SilverRex]

gdx 61% is officially at 19.8 however gdxj is at 30 which means gdx will have to shoot lower if gdxj hits it's 61%

opening back one position in Jnug at 5.54. will double up with gdxj gets near 30.00

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by SilverRex
gdx 61% is officially at 19.8 however gdxj is at 30 which means gdx will have to shoot lower if gdxj hits it's 61%

opening back one position in Jnug at 5.54. will double up with gdxj gets near 30.00
Wow, very ballsy Silver. Did you still have your previous JNUG positions as well? What's your average if you don't mind me asking?

[asp integra]

Jnug at 5.37 right now...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige

Wow, very ballsy Silver. Did you still have your previous JNUG positions as well? What's your average if you don't mind me asking?

no, I got stopped out as I was trying to pick a swing low. I wouldnt be adding more leverage. keeping my exposure small as miners unless we are back in a multi month up trend.

considering 5% is relatively small in my portfolio, I think we are at a place where reward is begining to look better than risk. I will most likely leave the current 5.5x position alone.

will add if gdxj hits 30

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex


no, I got stopped out as I was trying to pick a swing low. I wouldnt be adding more leverage. keeping my exposure small as miners unless we are back in a multi month up trend.

considering 5% is relatively small in my portfolio, I think we are at a place where reward is begining to look better than risk. I will most likely leave the current 5.5x position alone.

will add if gdxj hits 30

who's to say we wont see new lower lows for gold under 1000 and gdxj under 20?

I just feel we've all been trying to catch a falling knife here and if we just went with the market from the peak we would've all been rich

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by asp integra
Jnug at 5.37 right now...

Wow, that's insane. Almost a 19% drop in one day.

[Kloubek]

.

[digi355]

Originally posted by Kloubek


Wow, that's insane. Almost a 19% drop in one day.

Wall Street bets... Yolo

[Vanish3d]

I need some advice here.
my portfolio is -50% again.

It was -50% a month ago and I was able to bring it back to only -20% now back to -50%

what's the best play to bring it back?? I tried so many diff strategies and nothing seems to work. I alwasy get stuck on the wrong plays:banghead:

[Vanish3d]

edit: tripple post for some reason

[Vanish3d]

Edit: triple post for some reason

[ercchry]

Option 1.

Trade things with option contracts, but the actual security then use the options as insurance. So for every 100 shares, you need 1 put contract

Option 2.

Win as long as there is movement... option contract straddle, do some research before you attempt this. But basically if you buy the right calls and puts you will profit as long as the security isn't stagnant

Option 3.

YOLO a large, uncovered long position with options... it's like 10x leverage but you'd actually have to get the direction right :rofl:

[SilverRex]

well so the lower low is here. the previous weeks was nothing more than a 5 pt abcde bear flag with break down to the down side.

at this point reward is definitely greater than risk imo. and i think this sector just because of the sentiment and oversold conditions, would yield a pretty good rally comes January. so i expect the final bottom to be in place within days if not tomorrow.

current projection would peg gdx down to the 18 level and gdxj down to the 30 area.

as i have said a week ago, we could be looking at jnug down to the 4-5 area.

i am not going panic sell any of my current position and will only add if jnug hits the low 4s.

if miners comes out with a relief rally tomorrow i may take my profit and wait for a better re-entry. unless gdx can recover the 21 area and gdxj 35. otherwise any bounce i think would be counter trend at this time.

also has anyone paying attention to silver prices? it has already recovered half of it's losses today. the underlying strength is unreal. does it mean something? maybe.perhaps its india's ban on gold so silver is getting alot more bid lately

[ercchry]

The chart for gold from 2pm est onwards is absolutely insane... tomorrow should be interesting

[Vanish3d]

so no one thinks this is the trend line gold is trying to land on?

http://imgur.com/a/dy3Pg


inserting image doesnt seem to work
http://imgur.com/a/dy3Pg

[Vanish3d]

fuck it. out of JNUG and into JDST at 47.2.

every time there was a hard crash on miners it was followed by another hard crash the next day. Here is to hoping things are the same again.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
inserting image doesnt seem to work
http://i.imgur.com/eaIxEZu.jpg

[Vanish3d]

^ thanks

I'm gonna chase that theory....

[Disoblige]

This probably will be the longest hold I have on JNUG because I decided not to sell yesterday haha. Not sure if I did the right thing, but depends on the risk tolerance as well. I don't see it going back up to 6+ for a while, but we do have a Trump card for 2017 (literally). Dollar needs to calm down and Trump may help do that.

[Magic-8-Ball]

Originally posted by Disoblige
This probably will be the longest hold I have on JNUG because I decided not to sell yesterday haha. Not sure if I did the right thing, but depends on the risk tolerance as well. I don't see it going back up to 6+ for a while, but we do have a Trump card for 2017 (literally). Dollar needs to calm down and Trump may help do that.

I hear you, I am looking to average down my Jnug position here...to get into the low 6's. I am thinking that GDX will land somewhere in the mid to low 18's? Any insight from someone would be great on that!

I sure hope that trump card gets played at the right time!

[Disoblige]

Well, at least I can enjoy the holidays without worrying about trading.
See you all in Spring 2017; hopefully JNUG didn't reverse split :rofl:

[Vanish3d]

There is your $30 GDXJ silverrex. did you double down?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
There is your $30 GDXJ silverrex. did you double down?

yup

gdxj has hit it''s 61%, however gdx can still over shoot much lower. as it hasnt quite touch 18 yet. the safest bet would be to wait until next week to see how this week closes.

but medium term wise

the december low (now) often yields a pretty good return in the next 2 months.

here some some of the historic comparison between december-feb
-
2012
$50.06
$57.47
14.8%
2012-
2013

$44.85
$42.60
-5.0%
2013-
2014
$20.39
$26.70
30.9%
2014
-
2015
$17.30
$22.58
30.5%
2015
-
2016
$13.34
$19.39
45.4%
Average
23.3
%

[bspot]

^Well, I'm going to be bored for a while then. 100% in CEMP, HGU and some Jr miners right now.

One of those times you look at your portfolio and say "What was I thinking to get here!?"

Unless there is surprise news with CEMP, I'm not touching anything for a couple months.

... famous last words :devil:

[Vanish3d]

I dumped my JDST and into JNUG. Looks like it might recover somewhat - deadcat bounce at least

[riander5]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I need some advice here.
my portfolio is -50% again.

It was -50% a month ago and I was able to bring it back to only -20% now back to -50%

what's the best play to bring it back?? I tried so many diff strategies and nothing seems to work. I alwasy get stuck on the wrong plays:banghead:

I already told you if you are day trading why are you playing JNUG and holding overnight when you have no control of 16 hours out of a 24 hour period? Seems silly to me.

Unless you are entering and exiting day trades during the 8hr period you are leaving yourself open to excess risk.

That being said, if making money trading was easy, everyone would do it

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by riander5


I already told you if you are day trading why are you playing JNUG and holding overnight when you have no control of 16 hours out of a 24 hour period? Seems silly to me.

Unless you are entering and exiting day trades during the 8hr period you are leaving yourself open to excess risk.

That being said, if making money trading was easy, everyone would do it


I almost never hold overnight. If i do it's a small amount. I just get the wrong side the next day.

[riander5]

Well then I dont know what to tell ya haha.

Everyone here trying to catch the falling knife with gold. We all did it with oil too, im breakeven finally!!! Lets get to 80 its all profits from here!

[bball2]

Originally posted by riander5

Unless you are entering and exiting day trades during the 8hr period you are leaving yourself open to excess risk.

Amen to that, that was a costly lesson to learn when I started :werd:

Personally if you want to hold leveraged positions overnight, do it with options instead of leveraged index funds. You have more control over timing, risk, leverage, etc. You lose money with time but not with volatility.

[Magic-8-Ball]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I dumped my JDST and into JNUG. Looks like it might recover somewhat - deadcat bounce at least +

Well done on that play! I was about to do the same...just never can convince myself in time!

[Vanish3d]

^ thanks. Just switched back...
still nowhere near recovered my losses

[Kloubek]

Check out DRYS today. I almost got in when it was +18%.

Coulda shoulda.

EDIT: Fuck me. DCIX is another one I almost put my money into. Up 88% at the time I write this.

God I suck ass at this investing game.

[riander5]

Originally posted by Kloubek
Check out DRYS today. I almost got in when it was +18%.

Coulda shoulda.

EDIT: Fuck me. DCIX is another one I almost put my money into. Up 88% at the time I write this.

God I suck ass at this investing game.

You just looking at market movers and hopping aboard the train?

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by riander5


You just looking at market movers and hopping aboard the train?

Actually, I had both in my watchlist for some time and had no idea today would happen.

But no, not hopping on any train, apparently.

[Vanish3d]

I think we're gonna see another down day for gold. Hard crashes have been 3 days in the past. I'm working that theory and into JDST at 49.5

[Disoblige]

Yeah... Dollar is crazy strong and I really think a strong catalyst is needed to cause it to drop. Need Trump to fall back on his promises or feds to react dovish to news, etc. The rate hike was priced in, but not that statement on 3 hikes next year. Not sure why Yellen even said that when she knows there is a lot of uncertainty ahead and she is typically "data driven".

[Vanish3d]

Are you guys watching this crazy swing??
I got stopped out of JDST for a small small profit... after being up 10%

[SilverRex]

FCX is finally moving down to my buy zone. anything between 12.50-13.50 would be excellent entry imo.

if it can get to 13.50 or lower, i will be interesting in picking up a position. follow by one more if it can close the gap near 12.00

as for gold. i think next week is the key week. if this is the bottom we are waiting for, then i think one final low next week will do it. of course, we saw a nice bounce in gold, if it can form a swing low by breaking above 1145, then perhaps we may have a shot at calling this past week the bottom.

i have two jnug position averaging around 5s. i may add one more if gdx hits near 18.00

technically wise, biotech is due for a wave 3 pop. my stake in this isnt very much. but i still believe biotech has a date at least breaking the November high.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Yeah... Dollar is crazy strong and I really think a strong catalyst is needed to cause it to drop. Need Trump to fall back on his promises or feds to react dovish to news, etc. The rate hike was priced in, but not that statement on 3 hikes next year. Not sure why Yellen even said that when she knows there is a lot of uncertainty ahead and she is typically "data driven".

Same time last year she said 4 in 16.

Woukdnt be too worried lol

[Vanish3d]

wft

GDXJ is down to mid 28 but JNUG is slightly up??

[SilverRex]

picked up a starting position in fcx in the 13.38. if there is one move dive towards 12.50 will add another one.

cooper may bottom today resulting in fcx bottoming at the same time.

[Disoblige]

Sad times for gold.

[Magic-8-Ball]

Originally posted by SilverRex
FCX is finally moving down to my buy zone. anything between 12.50-13.50 would be excellent entry imo.

if it can get to 13.50 or lower, i will be interesting in picking up a position. follow by one more if it can close the gap near 12.00

as for gold. i think next week is the key week. if this is the bottom we are waiting for, then i think one final low next week will do it. of course, we saw a nice bounce in gold, if it can form a swing low by breaking above 1145, then perhaps we may have a shot at calling this past week the bottom.

i have two jnug position averaging around 5s. i may add one more if gdx hits near 18.00

technically wise, biotech is due for a wave 3 pop. my stake in this isnt very much. but i still believe biotech has a date at least breaking the November high.

Concerning Botech...sure seems like the sector (IBB) is stuck at this 50% re-tracement level. Would be nice to see it gain some traction this week...Definitely should have been flipping this during the day a few times now...hehe I don't want miss that potential wave 3!

[Disoblige]

More pain for gold, and higher DXY. Thanks to Japan.

[secol]

what a red day for the green guys.....got in on CGC/APH and thought i had a decent position

[jacky4566]

Originally posted by Disoblige
More pain for gold, and higher DXY. Thanks to Japan.

What am i missing here? Why thanks to Japan?

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by jacky4566


What am i missing here? Why thanks to Japan?
Bank of Japan left rates unchanged. Weakened yen and dollar continued upward, resulting in weaker gold.

[anarchy]

Originally posted by secol
what a red day for the green guys.....got in on CGC/APH and thought i had a decent position
Yup. I got out of CGC at $10 last week but stayed in APH. Was contemplating getting out of APH yesterday at $5 but decided to stick to it. Then it dropped like a rock, and down 11% today (recovered to about 6% but still).

Brutal - gotta just wait it out I guess. Looking for a buying opportunity but I'm not going to try and catch this falling knife.

[secol]

bouncing back up a bit

[SilverRex]

so close adding another tranche in jnug. did not quite hit my next buy limit order.

fcx so far acting like yesterday was in deed the bottom.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
so close adding another tranche in jnug. did not quite hit my next buy limit order.

fcx so far acting like yesterday was in deed the bottom.

Any updates on le Oil

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by ickyflex


Any updates on le Oil

i havent pay much attention to oil since i no longer have any position.

just a simple approach. looks like ever since oil has broken out and have so far successfully backtested the previous breakout area in the 51.x. as long as oil does not close below 50 which will mean a h&s pattern obj down to 46. then the path to 60 oil should still be on radar.

in the short term, it looks like oil does have 5 waves off the recent low at 50 or nearly a completion of 5 waves. ideally oil may need to dive under 51.5 one last time before a strong move up.

perhaps this week's inventory report is the catalyst for either direction. under 50 towards 46 or retest 51.5 then new highs

only worry is that seasonally oil is typically looking for a bottom this time. so if one has no position in this sector, i would rather wait for the under 50 scenario.

[SilverRex]

silver has 5 waves off the bottom today. it is impulsive, and pending no complete reversal. we could be looking at a very nice bullish reversal hammer on the daily.

this is a very strong first sign potentially the bottom in this sector could be in.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex


i havent pay much attention to oil since i no longer have any position.

just a simple approach. looks like ever since oil has broken out and have so far successfully backtested the previous breakout area in the 51.x. as long as oil does not close below 50 which will mean a h&s pattern obj down to 46. then the path to 60 oil should still be on radar.

in the short term, it looks like oil does have 5 waves off the recent low at 50 or nearly a completion of 5 waves. ideally oil may need to dive under 51.5 one last time before a strong move up.

perhaps this week's inventory report is the catalyst for either direction. under 50 towards 46 or retest 51.5 then new highs

only worry is that seasonally oil is typically looking for a bottom this time. so if one has no position in this sector, i would rather wait for the under 50 scenario.

Thanks!!

Anyone have any ideas why BTE has been such a lagger lately. Meanwhile Meg almost 9.50

[Disoblige]

Miners close green, barely. Meh, I'll take it.

[sputnik]

CCL Industries position had a great day today.

Almost dumped it a couple of days ago.

[SilverRex]

after the mini 5 waves off the low with gold today. follow by a text book wave 2 correction. sub wave 3 appears to be happening right now.

in order to seal the low at 1122 to be the bottom. gold must impulsively and aggressively break above 1142 and remain above it.

one last bearish scenario is that it will have trouble in the 1140-1144 area which can turn the last couple of days in a flat abc correction with one more low ahead.

similarly, silver needs to convincingly break above 16 and hold above it. for a similar stance

https://s29.postimg.org/f1ii4fhmf/gold_12_20_2016.png

[SilverRex]

just to add to the previous post on oil.

as you can see, oil has not only broken the neckline but also successfully backtested it.

so long oil remains above 50, i expect it will find its way towards the 60-70 area. then neckline breakout is a reversal h&s pattern. just like how gold broken down from its own h&s pattern and resulted in a water decline towards the 1100 area. oil is in a similar pattern but in reverse.

of course nothing is ever 100%, it is just more likely scenario. nothing can stop oil from crashing and this breakout being a head fake. so the line in the sand imo is 50.00. with a surging oil, the stock market will continue to push upwards

https://s28.postimg.org/ioghm0aot/oil_12_20_2016.png

[Disoblige]

I'd love to see SPY rally with gold, that really will pop the miners up. I'm thinking if we pass 1144, there isn't much resistance from there back to pre-FOMC levels.

I would be very surprised if that happened before year end though.

If I get out of my JNUG bag profitably, I'm getting my dream watch :P

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
I'd love to see SPY rally with gold, that really will pop the miners up. I'm thinking if we pass 1144, there isn't much resistance from there back to pre-FOMC levels.

I would be very surprised if that happened before year end though.

If I get out of my JNUG bag profitably, I'm getting my dream watch :P

well forgot to mention, there are some stiff resistance for gold right now. denoted in R1 and R2. gold is testing R1 now as we speak..

of course the counter thinking is that if gold can break above these two resistance zones which is the same as breaking above 1142 tomorrow and produce a swing low by taking out 1145.

that would be bullish confirmation

https://s24.postimg.org/grmlnz3yt/gold_12_20_2016.png

[Disoblige]

Still early I guess, but not looking so good this morning for gold. So little volume even with USD down.

And home sales numbers just released and it's more sales than expected.

[riander5]

Golds going down down down. Trumps ushering in a new era of productivity and wealth. The USD is going through the roof!

[riander5]

I can sympathize to all your gold plights as I made the same mistake with oil. Dont try to catch the falling knife - the trend is your friend no matter how many wave theorys silver rex posts (I still love you silverex)

I thought I caught the bottom of oil the first time it hit 35, then sold at 30, then it hit 27 or w/e and climbed to 40. Wont make that mistake again :banghead:

[SilverRex]

right now all things are waiting on the performance of the US dollar, it is looking for it's wave 5 top. until it does, gold probably would continue to grind side ways or lower.

gold still cant break above R1 (last chart), silver looks a lot better. if there is anything for gold by Christmas it needs to show its hand soon or this could very well be a January thing just like in 2015.

oil is coming back down to test under 51.5 as i have suspected. now key moment. it has retraced enough and also needs to make a move without breaking below 50.00

fcx after 5 waves off the recent low, is looking like a wave 2 correction with wave 3 to come. fcx is pretty text book Elliot wave.its nice when things move according to plan.

for biotech, i wonder if xbi does want to fill the gap down to the 58 level.

[Disoblige]

Personally, one fundamental reason that is keeping me holding is how long can this dollar and market rally last? Is Trump going to deliver all his promises? I say no. When will reality set in and people start getting back into gold?