Official Short-term Investments Thread

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Kloubek


And yes Ercchry - I typically just do market value trades so far.

Oooh man, good thing you don't have access to after hours :rofl:

Always set a limit, especially on anything low volume... there is always a possibility that your order gets filled by some ask that was way higher than the current price.

[Kloubek]

Not in the last bit. It's taken a bit of a rise back. I expect it to finish about even.

BTE is a stock I've been in for quite a while for my long play. One day, I will make good money on it. (Though I was kind of hoping it would have already started occurring)


Originally posted by ercchry


Oooh man, good thing you don't have access to after hours :rofl:

Always set a limit, especially on anything low volume... there is always a possibility that your order gets filled by some ask that was way higher than the current price.

Yeah, I hear you. Always a good idea to have that safety net.

[Kloubek]

.

[SilverRex]

if gold doesnt come crashing down the longer it stays at these lofty heights and the over bought RSI subsides, it could suddenly push towards 1200. dont think I want to play the short side. surprise is usually to the upside. letting go of my jdst I had earlier with a small loss.

i rather just wait and see, if there is a good pull back i will buy on major dips.

[riander5]

Originally posted by ercchry
Alright, I give up (Google isn't even helping) what is ABP?

Well for me it meant average buy price. I think thats the correct term? Could be wrong... plus there is probably 100 other ways to express your average cost haha

[ercchry]

Ah, yeah figured it was along those lines... Not necessarily the most accurate wording (since trades don't always have to be a "buy") but I get it!

[riander5]

"Average Cost" might be the most accurate i guess

[bspot]

I'm back in on LABU.

I'm so sad I got scared off of holding for that gap fill with LABD.

[littledan]

Started winding down some of my mmj stocks today. Closed 300 shares of SL and 200 shares of ACB. Going to reduce my exposure slowly. I'm up about 4-5k on mmj so will take some of that off the table. Lookin to close out my position in OGI for a break even tomorrow hopefully and move that to TD or BCE.

[SilverRex]

this is my count. assuming we have finished 5 waves off the low and tomorrow's NFP (last job number for the Obama administration which they could paint a pretty picture and force a strong dollar rebound) a profit taking event could trigger a big sell off in miners with the possibility of correcting as low as 31 in gdxj.

if this is the case i will then reload on the way down.

however, if the opposite happens and miners keeps on going higher and hit 38-39 without any significant pull back. then the uber bullish count means we are still in wave 3 of 3 of 1. that would then suggest we may never see under 35 again as well as any chance of filling to two small runaway gap. this uber count would very much mirror what happened in 2016.

https://s30.postimg.org/gnme5y3ip/gdxj_01_05_2017.png

[ercchry]

With the strength of miners at the end of the day I'm leaning to uber bullish

Especially cause I sold my very in the green position today :rofl:

But it also means I have ammo for a correction too

[KO22]

When is this NFP thing suppose to come out? I have way more than I'm comfortable with in SSO right now haha

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KO22
When is this NFP thing suppose to come out? I have way more than I'm comfortable with in SSO right now haha

i thought the report comes out like at 6:30am

[KO22]

156 vs 175 expected

[SilverRex]

but they revised November to like 204k

so it is causing the dollar to rally as expected. and gold is dropping

spotting gold h&s break down targeting the 1161 area.

also the pattern continues. NFP has been a trend changer

[SilverRex]

while i expect gold to find support in the 1150-1160 area. watch for any type of reversal or bottoming pattern that could suddenly re-ignite gold.

https://s23.postimg.org/d5ur2sv63/gold_01_06_2017.pngg

[SilverRex]

since surprise is to the upside if this gold rally the real thing. watch for any reversal such as gold managing to get back and sustain above the neckline...

[SilverRex]

fcx wave iv appears completed and wave 5 underway.as long as it holds above 14.72 looking for wave v to break the down trend line. if 14.72 doesnt hold it just means wave iv hasnt finished

https://s24.postimg.org/3wek81ktx/fcx_01_06_2017.png

[SilverRex]

gold miner is in a tug of war. watch if gold can close below 1175 to regain the bearish path.

i will only be buying back jnug if gold makes a run towards 1161

[jacky4566]

So just for shits i put in a small sell order on JNUG at 8.5 with a stop loss at 9. Well low and behold it triggered Right at 9.00...then promptly dropped to 8. Kicking myself here.

[bball2]

Jnug / Nugt loosing all the gains made yesterday

[Disoblige]

JDST :drool: :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
Jnug / Nugt loosing all the gains made yesterday

despite news supported the stronger dollar and started the gold/miner sell off. days ago, it was a simple sub 5 waves up, big money exit, late comers holding the bag and now wave 2 decline.

if is great when things move according to script.

[SilverRex]

fcx broke 14.72 so wave iv not quite finished. yet it looks like it is in a abc triangle consolidation.

[SilverRex]

buying back 1 jnug position at 7.25 (since it is still under the 7.75 which i sold yesterday) will buy more if she makes its way into the low 6s and low 5s.

[SilverRex]

after jnug moving nearly 140% off the low in December. its due for a significant pull back. i am pretty impressed how accurate the counts has been thus far. which only confirms what i am seeing or the majority of the top EW experts out there. it is true, some times we dont agree, but some times we do.

the simplest way to put it, miners have given us 5 waves up, and so a 3 wave ABC correction was inevitable. i did buy back 1 position during this wave A down, simply i have a few other bullish scenarios that i keep at the back of my mind and wanted back some leverage exposure. however if miners do get to the typical targeted 50-61% fib retracement levels i will confidently add more positions on it's way down.

notice RSI and MACD are now showing negative divergence, another confirmation the latest advance was a 5th wave. Negative divergences typically start showing up on the 5th waves.

also on friday we have another record BoW on the gdx which would give fuel for further upside on the miners to kick start the week, but caution as it could simply be much stronger wave B counter bounce

mind you these counts and levels are merely just projection and guide. by no means does price have to move exactly. if you look back in early 2016 when miners first bottomed and came flying out of the gate, there was hardly a wave 2 correction, it was shallow and nearly unnoticeable.

for all i know miners could back test the multi-month trendline break out near 21.50 and that would be it. so use your own strategy for deployment.

in summary, we are at the start of a BTFD moment, if gold/miners truly have bottomed. the wave 3 is the one you want to be in. because it is not the same wave 3 as seen in 2016, 2016 was a wave 3 of 1, this year's setup is a wave 3 of 3 which would finally get the entire world on board.

the devils advocate - even if this entire sector remains a larger bear rally. count still suggest a big move for gdx to break into the range of 37-47. so potential for upside outweights the risk involve at the current level.

https://s24.postimg.org/68u6omtmd/gdx_01_07_2017.png

[ercchry]

As long as I can unload my dgc 24 strike calls before the 20th I'm happy either way! :rofl:

Bought early nov... thought for sure they were going to expire at $0, but I actually have hope now

[SilverRex]

just a quick update on oil. despite oil remains resilient thanks to the Opec cut. negative divergence is starting to show up at these levels. couple the fact we ended last week with a record CoT commercical short position. so caution is advise and oil could possible be due for a medium term pull back before she can make another move higher.

over all i am still expecting a target price of 60-65 with a uber bullish target of 75 because of the reverse head & shoulder breakout.

i personally think as long as oil does not close below 50, one can continue to hold towards the 60-65 price target.

https://s30.postimg.org/m6gq4nh4h/oil_01_08_2017.png

[SilverRex]

natgas, after making another 5 waves from 2.4 to 3.8s, i believe it is due for a big pull back.

personally i may only buy if natgas can dip back to the 1.5-2.4 area. until then it may even be worth shorting if it bounces back to 3.5

with a huge engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart. i could see a dead cat bounce from being extreme oversold, then continuation move lower

[SilverRex]

looking to sell my jnug if miners open up strongly this morning.

gold looks like it is in a narrowing rising wedge (usually it is a terminating move) with silver severely lagging behind, selling my jnug at the open

natgas no bounce, strong breakdown. only a nice short if it gets back near 3.5 otherwise wait for extreme lows for low risk entry

looks like biotech wave 3 underway

[riander5]

Where's Bavarian beast ? Aria up 70%

I'm just going to follow silverrex gold plays and BB stock picks. Should triple up in no time!

[SilverRex]

Selling 2/3 of my Labu position this morning

[SilverRex]

gold's bounce this week was pretty strong. confirms that BoW on record volume last friday was indeed a good signal.

already sold my jnug made 13% cant complain. starting to get use to these swing playing all the right directions.

the uber bullish count in green could still mean wave 5 of 5 not completed, but i am still expecting just a strong wave B bounce, either scenario still points to a bigger sell off in my books. so I will wait for another chance to go leverage.

sure can miners follow 2016 and just keep stomping higher? of course. that is why i have 75% core miners waiting for what ever upside surprise. when i exited in March 2016 completely to try and catch a pull back, that was a hard lesson learn.

https://s29.postimg.org/aq4sdy4d3/gdxj_01_09_2017.png

[BavarianBeast]

BOOM!

ARIA buyout! I am over the moon right now. I have been waiting for this fucking morning for way too long.

Cheers!

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
BOOM!

ARIA buyout! I am over the moon right now. I have been waiting for this fucking morning for way too long.

Cheers!

That's AWESOME. Congrats!

[BavarianBeast]

Thanks. It was a hell of a ride with them, I'm just ecstatic I had a position with them during the buyout. If Bernie sanders hadn't tweeted that nonsense and sent the stock down 40%, I likely would of never re-entered a few months back..

[riander5]

Originally posted by riander5
Where's Bavarian beast ? Aria up 70%

I'm just going to follow silverrex gold plays and BB stock picks. Should triple up in no time!

Was at the gym and saw this on BNN. Figured we'd be hearing from you in here! haha

[Kloubek]

In and out of JNUG today for about a 8% again on 10g. Not bad for a day's work....

[SilverRex]

gold made a new high but miners couldnt.

[SilverRex]

gpl/gpr im up over 50%, this makes up 20% of my portfolio. so tempted to take some profit off the table.

[riander5]

I see you added a 2016 IS300 to your stable silverrex, must be from all your gold and silver money! haha

Nice work on GPL/GPR

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
I see you added a 2016 IS300 to your stable silverrex, must be from all your gold and silver money! haha

Nice work on GPL/GPR

made money yes. but that wasnt the reason why i picked up a new ride. it was a pretty good deal that i couldnt pass up. thanks to the slow economy.

[SilverRex]

i posted chart last time showing how gold has a h&s topping pattern and when it started breaking down, price never met the price target and i said watch for the reclosing above the neckline which can invalidate the setup and become bullish once again.

well gold has been invalidating these h&s patterns continuously, and the swings are getting smaller on declining volume which will lead to a gigantic pop or sell off one way or the other as many are waiting for a bigger pull back (including myself) and if it rises any further people will begin to realize something else is going on, and begin to chase having to set a moving stop loss

so we will see how it plays out. personally i am not chasing, if it doesnt fall, then so be it.

https://s27.postimg.org/nhegh93ab/gold_01_10_2017.png

[SilverRex]

fcx wave iv indeed was a triangular abc pattern with wave 5 on the move this morning finally breaking out from the multi-week neckline.

[riander5]

Maybe you have been doing it for a while but i just noticed nice to see you have moved over to trading view for charting

[SilverRex]

fcx has finally finished wave iv and wave v broke above the all important down trendline.

it is looking like the two Buy position I had in the 13s is now beginning to look pretty good.

count suggest the coming move to be a powerful wave 3, so instead of trying to play the swings, i think is best just to hold it until fcx hits target price of 20-22 before I considering selling.

https://s24.postimg.org/tmi9wwjqd/fcx_01_10_2017.png

[jacky4566]

Has anyone been trading Tech stock? I bought some AMD last week in hopes of good news at CES 2017. Well, they released some good but expected news about the upcoming RyZen processors. Seems this hasn't moved the stock much right now. The hype train is super strong right now with ZEN processors and I suspect they may be over bought right now.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Maybe you have been doing it for a while but i just noticed nice to see you have moved over to trading view for charting

yeah netdania kept crashing on me. so I have no choice but to switch over ;)

[SilverRex]

inspite of gold's continuation higher, gdx is extremely lack luster. and hence the general count for gdx remains intact. still expect price under 21. before I would put on my leverage hat again.

gdxj is doing well, perhaps it either has something to do with the dividend pay out(which took the index down) a few weeks ago is catching back up or (if you look at the volume in Jnug) there appears to be massive inflow of funds positioning in this area. Nugt was the big volume playing in 2016. perhaps Jnug gets it's turn in 2017

https://s28.postimg.org/neiws3p4d/gdx_01_10_2017.png

[SilverRex]

looks like gold/miners finally coming down together.

gold finally produced a monthly swing, even if gold tanks I think it is another buy on every significant dips mode.

[Disoblige]

Been a fun couple weeks in JNUG and JDST. All out now, and waiting for a decent dip in JNUG for entry.

Will be starting a position in LABD potentially today.

[Kloubek]

Messed up my investments with JNUG and JDST today. Entered with JDST almost near it's bottom this morning, thinking it had room to go. Tiny loss of about half a percent before I got out.

Made that loss up plus some with a 5% gain on JNUG directly afterwards. Kinda wish I stayed in since it has gained another couple of percent more since and is still going.

I've decided to play it safer than I used to though. Less greedy. Even a 5% gain on one day is nothing to scoff at.

[ercchry]

Damn delayed quotes... oh well, at least I got into a partial position pretty close to the bottom of the day on my miner... probably missed the bottom by 10min, but still have an order in case it goes lower from here

[SilverRex]

here is a good article/report on oil. it is similar to something I posted probably 6 months ago where despite an oversupply in oil, the production has already peaked and eventually we will see a supply squeeze before we see demand peaking or dropping.

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/brace-for-the-financial-crash-of-2018-b2f81f85686b#.s6p3e4kt0

initially when oil prices rises, it speeds up recovery and jobs are created, everything seems to be back on track. but wait, what if oil suddenly does a moon shot bubble pushing oil above 140 again? we live in a very volatile period.

With Trump being another wild card. one doesnt need to be a genius to know there are definitely more surprises coming in the years ahead.

[ickyflex]

US EIA oil inventories week ending 6 January 2017

Prior -7051k
Cushing -579k vs 300k exp. Prior 1074k
Gasoline 5023k vs 2750k exp. Prior 8307k
Distillates 8356k vs 2600k exp. Prior 10051k
Refinery utilisation 1.60% vs 0.15% exp. Prior 1.0%
Production 8.946m vs 8.770m

Production up 200k week over week in the US. Crazy

[SilverRex]

putting some beer money into dryship as a pure gamble

[SilverRex]

any word from Trump could move the markets today.

live stream

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAkumy7_Pbc

in theory he should push the US dollar up and gold down. which is exactly what i want...however so far gold is getting stronger..

[SilverRex]

even though I am waiting for gold and miners to correct further. do watch gdx if it somehow find a way to break the previous high over 23.30 it could mean wave 3 may have started and people will begin to chase this sector.

this is an uber bullish count a 1-2, 1-2, but will become realistic if gdx makes a new high

[dimi]

Question. In LABD at ~13.50. Google finance shows a spike to around ~15, quest shows it at 13.60. Delay?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by dimi
Question. In LABD at ~13.50. Google finance shows a spike to around ~15, quest shows it at 13.60. Delay?

LABD is at 15.20

i aslo sold all my biotech at 42 2 days back. just didnt want the volatility with the Trump speech ahead and my focus is on gold now

[SilverRex]

US dollar is getting beat.

a week ago I was expecting a counter bounce so that miners/gold could correct before she drops.

looks like the US dollar wave 3 down may have started. unless it can make another wave towards the rising wedge for a wave E then gold/miners may can still correct

otherwise sinking dollar will resume the already gold/miners up trend further up.

I have opened 1 jnug position with stops under 8 just to have some leverage skin in the game.

https://s27.postimg.org/plx2ogvqr/dollar_01_11_2017.png

[SilverRex]

very volatile right now, if gold cant break above 1189, it would look like it is a head fake and gold was merely backtesting the 1188 area previous trendline breakdown.

got stopped out, thats fine, will buy lower which is what I want.

update: gold going for another crack and the breakout.
update: gold breaking 1189 finally, may not be a head fake...

[jdmXSI]

Been lurking for awhile now but I wanted to thank you for posting all this!

I bought JNUG on Friday during the dip and sold on Monday. Hopefully they will come back down again...

[SilverRex]

looks like gold breakout is real. get ready for short squeeze the higher she goes

[SilverRex]

technically wave C of (II) may have ended this morning. and wave 3 is beginning. unless this is a drawn out flat correction, then the bottom may have already been in. gdx needs to break above 23.35 to continue the momentum.

https://s27.postimg.org/na4tzqmyr/gdx_01_11_2017.png

[SilverRex]

the only thing that bothers me is that miners are under performing to gold. every time gold makes a new high, miners seems to unable to breakout much higher.

so caution is advise chasing miners at these level. I am not going to chase.l either i buy low or let my core positions ride..

miners could also be flagging with further consolidation before it is ready to breakout.

I will continue to wait for a better entry

[ercchry]

So close to $1200!

[Disoblige]

Missed LABD entry by 1 cent before my meetings and come back to see 12% up. Lame. lol

[Disoblige]

Miner's back up even with gold at 1191. Nice!

[ercchry]

Not all miners :cry:

[Disoblige]

Nvm, it's back down, even though gold steady.

[bspot]

God damn Trump killed my LABU. I can't believe how hard this sector gets crushed by the smallest thing.

[SilverRex]

with miners failing to breakout to new high even though gold did. has me a little concerned.

but over all I think miners still looks healthy. and looks like it is flagging.

I may try my luck again if miners get back to the bottom of the triangle. still waiting for the test of the low 21 gdx to get my fills.

https://s28.postimg.org/5qlmi5r65/gdx_flag.png

[Disoblige]

I just don't want to miss gold breaking $1200. Might happen overnight one of these days :D

It looks like it wants to really bad.

[SilverRex]

interesting Meg suddenly shows Trading Halted. I wonder whats up

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
interesting Meg suddenly shows Trading Halted. I wonder whats up

Come on $20 buyout

lol

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by ickyflex


Come on $20 buyout

lol

lol ya that's what I'm hoping for. Unfortunately I reduced my position over the last year in my RRSP and dumped more into BTE... but would still be happy with a $20 buyout - keep dreaming

[ickyflex]

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/meg-energy-announces-comprehensive-refinancing-plan-including-extended-5-year-covenant-tsx-meg-2187860.htm

[secol]

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/meg-energy-announces-comprehensive-refinancing-plan-including-extended-5-year-covenant-tsx-meg-2187860.htm

EDIT: beat haha

[jacky4566]

Originally posted by secol
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/meg-energy-announces-comprehensive-refinancing-plan-including-extended-5-year-covenant-tsx-meg-2187860.htm

EDIT: beat haha

Can someone ELI5 this for the dumb people in the room. Is this good or bad news? From my interpretation they are selling 46million shares for whats effectively a line of credit?

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by jacky4566


Can someone ELI5 this for the dumb people in the room. Is this good or bad news? From my interpretation they are selling 46million shares for whats effectively a line of credit?

Neutral I'd say. Cleaning up the balance sheet a bit and extending debt. Gives them the option to sell their Access Pipeline portion (50%). Still lots of debt though

[riander5]

Id say negative, I doubt they even have access to more debt, so a shitload more shares they just dliuted shareholder value.

CPG did that last year and they havent caught the upswings with oil prices nearly as much as pre equity raise. Then again im just speaking from panning the article and 0 investment banking experience, just an oil and gas engineer prespective

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by riander5
Id say negative, I doubt they even have access to more debt, so a shitload more shares they just dliuted shareholder value.

CPG did that last year and they havent caught the upswings with oil prices nearly as much as pre equity raise. Then again im just speaking from panning the article and 0 investment banking experience, just an oil and gas engineer prespective

I'd agree to some extent, they wouldn't do this if they didn't have to.

However, finally having access to sell Access Pipeline is a big option which is needed in those dire situations

[bball2]

Man I have quite a few MEG options with an expiry next Friday with a strike price of $8. Let's see how this plays out tomorrow, either a great morning or everything is going to be worthless :P

[Disoblige]

Will we break $1200 gold tonight? Will 1197 hold until tomorrow at least? Exciting times.

[ercchry]

$1200!!! Now hopefully it can hold

[Disoblige]

Hopefully it can hold until open, even with the slightly better than anticipated unemployment numbers. I hate selling premarket with all the commissioning fees haha.

[bball2]

Damn MEG down 5% at opening

[ickyflex]

I don't get it, oil has been up $3 in the past 2 days and Canadian oil stocks are flat still

[jacky4566]

Originally posted by bball2
Damn MEG down 5% at opening

The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets!

But yea. As a MEG holder as well this sucks. Oil is up so i wonder where this will go.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by jacky4566


The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets!

But yea. As a MEG holder as well this sucks. Oil is up so i wonder where this will go.

Equities only seem to want to follow crude down but don't partake in any upside

[riander5]

Dont dilute the shareholders, they dont like it!

[sputnik]

Originally posted by riander5
Dont dilute the shareholders, they dont like it!

:werd:

Crescent Point did the same thing to me.

[riander5]

Originally posted by sputnik


:werd:

Crescent Point did the same thing to me.

Thats why i was so sure MEG was gonna drop. I still hold lots of CPG and they dont go up as much as they did pre equity raise

[SilverRex]

miners continue to under perform. looks like not chasing it was a good decision. this could all still be a counter trend rally. with wave B possible have topped and wave C down to begin

[Disoblige]

I exited JNUG when it was repeatedly testing 1200 and I didn't feel comfortable. Wanted to secure profit at $8.76. Then later 1197 broke, and I think that was the sign to GTFO if you haven't already done so.

[bspot]

I'm out of all gold/miners right now.

Pretty pissed my LABU stop barely triggered yesterday, but not jumping on the moving train.

Sitting super cash heavy right now and not seeing anything calling my name at the moment.

Hopefully something takes a big dump so I can go bottom chasing again :rofl:

[Tribeca]

Something to read for those of us that like playing gold

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/12/fools-gold-traders-suggest-getting-out-of-gold-now--heres-why.html

[SilverRex]

not suggesting gold will move exactly like it did oil when oil bottomed. but seeing gold came flying out of a bottom in a solid up channel. it is quite possible gold can now move into a half cycle low then breakout into another rising channel to test the 1240 area.

hopefully that means a chances to pick up miners on the cheap

https://s24.postimg.org/jsudfvpf9/oil_vs_gold_bottom.png

[Redlined_8000]

Lol and my friends told me to sell MEG

http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/meg-energy-announces-400-million-project-to-boost-oilsands-production