Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

just a quick post on gold.

even though gold did not close on or above 1221. it did produce a weekly swing and closed higher than the previous week which continues to add momentum and technical buying.

even removing the counts. the inverse h&s breakout on two a double pattern points to a target of 1240-1250 in the coming week.

the 1243 area is also a significant resistance, its the 200DMA on the daily so I suspect that would be the next major resistance area or profit taking zone.

some notables. gdxj is big on the SoS list friday, typically a early warning sign for weakness. but this is not always the case.

can gold suddenly drop under 1180? sure it can. but any significant drop is a good buying opportunity imo.

https://s29.postimg.org/ty0z9l9if/gold_02_04_2017.png

[SilverRex]

also I still consider miners are quite lack luster. perhaps it is still waiting for one more good sell off before really breaking loose.

one key element is tracking the US dollar, the big picture monthly chart here you see the obvious negative divergence on MACD and RSI.

dollar could very well be putting in a multi year top here. Even if it manages to make a new high in the coming weeks or months, I think the next big move is down.

the daily chart chart may suggest it could have produced a daily cycle low last week and may bounce in the coming weeks to form a right shoulder pattern. if this is the case, then gold/miners could continue to either move sideways or drop to a lower low.

I will be waiting for any good opportunity to jump back in if this scenario unfolds.

https://s28.postimg.org/3ubd397y5/dollar_02_04_2017.png

[SilverRex]

looking at fcx, failure to breakout has resulted in a larger flat ABC correction. as long as it continues to hold above the orange neckline breakout. if it begins to continuously close below this, a quick recovery even if it test the 200EMA is fine, but a weak to no recovery and trading below this neckline would warn the 12s (which was the original correctional target) will be back on the table.

there is also a rising channel line in the 12s. it is very possible. while I have two position in the 13s which I will not touch. I am swing trading with stops. re-entering my 3rd position after seeing a double bottom at 15.72, if it takes me out then I will try to catch a lower entry.

https://s30.postimg.org/c1l5248g1/fcx_02_06_2017.png

[Disoblige]

I feel like if there was a catalyst today, gold would have blown through 1230 no issues.

Also, it's interesting to see that GDXJ is over twice the % gains over GDX.

I was wrong about JDST it looks like haha. It's gone.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
I feel like if there was a catalyst today, gold would have blown through 1230 no issues.

Also, it's interesting to see that GDXJ is over twice the % gains over GDX.

I was wrong about JDST it looks like haha. It's gone.

gdx was first to breakout from it's multi month down trend channel, and I think gdxj didnt achieve the same breakout until last friday.

people are always hesitate around these major channel lines. by the time everyone realizes what is going on big percentage move has already been established.

jnug up 192% in around 6 weeks off the low in December.

Jnug is also outperforming gdxj even though that is what it tracks. gdxj has risen 47% yet Jnug has risen 192%

[secol]

Originally posted by secol
had a sell order on cgc (weed) this morning. didn't think it'd hit it, but in the last half hour it smashed through 10.3s and it executed. cgc/weed closed at 10.5s. guess i'll just sit on the sidelines and keep an eye out if it experiences a pullback. can't complain since i ended up with about a 15% gain over a month and a half
top keeps blowing up on cgc/weed.....up to 11.1s now :banghead:

up to 11.4s

11.6s now

[ickyflex]

Canadian Energy getting punished again, surprise surprise.

These NAFTA/BAT talks couldn't come sooner

[Disoblige]

JNUG 12+ :eek:

[riander5]

Get ready to swap it all to JDST or whatever equivilant

[Disoblige]

Was there a catalyst at all today for this, or just mainly technical?

JDST oversold, but this range is a bit scary because Asia can take this close to 1300 tonight potentially due to lack of time spent in this range to build the supports and resistances.

I can't believe JDST/JNUG are pretty much even now. What a crazy day.

[jacky4566]

Meanwhile in Canadian oil, BTE and MEG continue their rampage. :banghead:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by jacky4566
Meanwhile in Canadian oil, BTE and MEG continue their rampage. :banghead:

Yup technically the last major rally was damaged so I am waiting for lower prices

It has been a great day

GPL breaking out, fcx holding well, drys is making the move I suspected, and 70% of my entire portfolio is riding this gold wave. I think another 10% I will capture all my gains back that was lost during last years serious correction and gold/miner hasn't come close testing it's high yet.

[Kloubek]

Jnug now +22.5%. Crazy.

I actually had Jnug today, and rode it to 12%. Took it out and reinvested in something else for only an additional 2% gain on the day. Man am I kicking myself on that choice.

[asp integra]

Is this a peak for jnug or will it keep rising?

[SilverRex]

the move on miners look impulsive. this could be the wave 3 we have all been waiting for since last year. if that is the case no point trying to pick tops and bottom, just buy and hold.

if this is wave 3 then before you know it we could be knocking at last year's high

[ercchry]

^^that would be nice... just hit even today on my feb contracts, would be nice to recover from the jan ones, would only take another 5% from dgc, then it's all $$$$$ :bigpimp:

[Manhattan]

From a macro perspective is the idea that higher volatility & interest rates (i.e. inflation) will support higher gold prices?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Manhattan
From a macro perspective is the idea that higher volatility & interest rates (i.e. inflation) will support higher gold prices?

this is not my comment but i do agree

"Gold and interest rates sometimes move in opposite directions as expected... But they sometimes trade together, too. In fact, since 1969, the data show gold and interest rates have moved together nearly as often as they traded inversely.

For example, many investors know that gold soared in the 1970s. From the time President Richard Nixon closed the "gold window" in 1971 through the peak in 1980, gold rallied from less than $50 per ounce to $850 per ounce... a gain of more than 1,600%.

But what you may not realize is 10-year rates more than doubled over that same time, from less than 6% to more than 13.5%.

The same thing happened in the recent bull market. Ten-year rates rose from around 3.2% in 2003 – just over today's levels – to more than 5% in 2006. Yet as you can see from the chart below, gold doubled from $350 per ounce to more than $700 per ounce over the same time period...

In short, folks who argue that rising rates must be bearish for gold simply don't know history."

[Disoblige]

Awaiting consolidation for miners. Once this occurs, I'll be eyeing JNUG entry.

[SilverRex]

dont you just love it when things move according to plan. GPL/GPR indeed 3 pt flag consolidation breakout. I will be looking to take half my position off the table when it gets near or test the previous peak around 2.2.

The two position I planted back in Oct/Nov is looking pretty sweet. A typical strategy is to remove your initial investment and let your profit ride. this way you will always be ahead.

https://s24.postimg.org/plf0wr451/gpl_02_07_2017.png

[SilverRex]

Uranium heavy weight CCJ/CCO looks like it has met the minimum requirement for this correction. not only it has the looks of a A=C move down but also falling under wave A. RSI and MACD divergence is also showing up on the lower time frame.

I already have 1 position open in case this is the bottom. but would add one more if the bottom of this wave extends further down towards 10 or slightly under 10 to back test the neckline.

update: a confirmation that the bottom is in would be to see price close above 10.90
update2: we have 5 mini waves off the low, so far looking like sub wave 2 correction underway. could get interesting if price make a new high today or tomorrow

https://s27.postimg.org/n9yq7x3tv/ccj_02_07_2017.png

[SilverRex]

Nak/ndm while I have already sold all my position, despite cashing out over 125% gain, I still sold way prematurely. Doesnt matter, gain is gain, winning is winning. I'll take any profit over losses any day.

looking at the pattern, nak has a good tendancy to retest the previous top/peak. while it appears it is consolidating for another upside breakout. eventually it will have to move into an intermediate degree correction. I would wait patiently for a back test of the 2.5 area with a soon rising 200EMA making it an idea re-entry level. the only question is, is the recent top wave 3 or wave 5. if wave 5 to come, then I cant see price breaking below the 200EMA and more upside to go.

but if it is wave 5 completion, we could be looking down into the 1.8 area. so far I dont see any obvious negative divergences on the higher time frame. which means higher prices is to come. any good drop is just another buying opportunity.



https://s23.postimg.org/6m74uhp8b/nak_02_07_2017.png

[SilverRex]

Those just wanted to know why energy sector is getting hit? well my technical explanation below as reminder.



Originally posted by SilverRex
quick update on oil. ever since oil rallied off near 42, we have 5 waves up. if this is the cycle where oil will make a move towards 60-70, then i would like to see the correction ending slightly under 50.00

it is also possible oil may have ended it's correction around 50.50 and if oil does not begin to make new highs next week. then there is higher probability that the correction hasnt finish and i would expect a retest of 50 oil or even slightly lower.

key now is oil at 47.00 is where i would draw the line in the sand. if oil breaks below this price, then we may have a bigger problem where oil wants to test or break below 44, that would trigger a lot of stops.

so long we are above 46.75, the next big move should be up

https://s28.postimg.org/eugko0o6l/oil_01_28_2017.png


Originally posted by SilverRex
update on bte. the 61% support is having difficulty holding price up, with oil potentially looking like it may want to move down, i think this will definitely open the possibility that bte maybe seeking a lower low under last year's december low.

so i have exited my trades and wait

https://s23.postimg.org/mvyj894cb/bte_01_31_2017.png

[Magic-8-Ball]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Uranium heavy weight CCJ/CCO looks like it has met the minimum requirement for this correction. not only it has the looks of a A=C move down but also falling under wave A. RSI and MACD divergence is also showing up on the lower time frame.

I already have 1 position open in case this is the bottom. but would add one more if the bottom of this wave extends further down towards 10 or slightly under 10 to back test the neckline.

https://s27.postimg.org/n9yq7x3tv/ccj_02_07_2017.png

Hey SilverRex, just thought I'd make sure you are aware of a few things with Cameco. I know you always do your due diligence and your outlook is based heavily on Uranium and where it is headed. But just in case you haven't had a read on some of the internal goings on at Cameco, just be wary of one of the recent issues they are having with one of there customers. TEPCO is a rather large customer of Cameco and they are attempting to terminate a long term contract with them (in the billions...over the long term through to 2028). The jist of it now, is Cameco doesn't believe they have legal rights to terminate the contract...but if it goes through could mean a little carnage for Cameco. the stock price initially dropped a couple bucks when this news hit...so maybe its priced in. Anyhow food for thought.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball


Hey SilverRex, just thought I'd make sure you are aware of a few things with Cameco. I know you always do your due diligence and your outlook is based heavily on Uranium and where it is headed. But just in case you haven't had a read on some of the internal goings on at Cameco, just be wary of one of the recent issues they are having with one of there customers. TEPCO is a rather large customer of Cameco and they are attempting to terminate a long term contract with them (in the billions...over the long term through to 2028). The jist of it now, is Cameco doesn't believe they have legal rights to terminate the contract...but if it goes through could mean a little carnage for Cameco. the stock price initially dropped a couple bucks when this news hit...so maybe its priced in. Anyhow food for thought.

thanks for the info, and you are right I based my views on pure technical analysis on Uranium. and perhaps a better play is to focus on URA instead.

my own personal believe is that if something detrimental were to occur, it will be reflected in the price. So for the average safe oriented traders, I think looking at general funds in URA or gdx in miners or erx for energy would be the way to go.

the flip side to a potential weakness in any stock would also present a greater opportunity for profit. depending on one's strategy, a well timed entry would yield a better risk/reward setup then say something that hasnt let up and any catalyst would there by crush price.

;) in the end, do what works for you and stick to it.

[SilverRex]

quick update on gdxj. clearly it has broken out of the multi-month down channel. and now starts to significantly outperform gdx on this breakout. the dividend reinvestment had initially pushed this fund down in December that is why the charting and breakout channel looked different in comparison with gdx.

the normalized count at this time suggest that we are in a wave 5 ending sequence. considering the consolidation last month is typical of a wave iv pattern. If this is true, with gold coming up to a formidable resistance in the 1240-1250 area, it would make for a perfect medium term top and correction would begin down to the 35-38 area.

I probably wont chase here unless I see price fall back to the 35-38 area. (since I am already fully vested)

the bullish alt sequence is what scares me, actually not me but to those who have no position and waiting for a big pull back. because we clearly have 5 waves up from 27-37, if this is a wave 3 of 5 move still, then what that means is that we may not see price under 38 ever again. hence I drew the key area in red price at 38 would become a massive support area.

depending on how gold does and if the stock market in general suddenly runs into turmoil, gold/miners may just keep moving up, and the higher price goes, the more stops it triggers, the more short being squeezed, and everyone will be like wtf just happen, why didnt we see this coming.

well.. we kinda do. the hardest part in any analysis is the timing. There is also a very significant resemblance to last year's early move in 2016

https://s27.postimg.org/ikq7buyib/gdxj_02_07_2017.png

[Disoblige]

Started 1 position in JNUG on the dip; high 11s.

I don't think I would ever change my tactics of holding these for more than a couple days, but man I've been trading quite large volumes of JNUG since the 6s. It's nice to daydream the results if I got put into a coma and woke up today from December.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Started 1 position in JNUG on the dip; high 11s.

I don't think I would ever change my tactics of holding these for more than a couple days, but man I've been trading quite large volumes of JNUG since the 6s. It's nice to daydream the results if I got put into a coma and woke up today from December.

i have a feeling someone in this world happens to have gone thru that. instead of waking up thinking, oh S@#% I forgot to set any limit on my position, only to found out the good news.

i did read a quote some where saying often the biggest profit came from those who buy and hold instead of getting whipsaw to death from swing trades. because having a consistently good trading record in much harder to do than picking 1 right trade and letting it run. Leverage on the other hand I think is a world of its own.

[SilverRex]

fcx though broke below 16, my next suspicion is a test of the 200EMA which it has tested this morning and so far holding and reversing. If fcx can recover back about the previous neckline breakout, then a full head on wave 3 should still be on the table. otherwise the threat of 12s remains a possibility.

ccj after 5 waves up, 3 waves down, it appears sub wave 3 is in progress

gpl, looking to take a position off the table if it manages to test the previous peak near 2.2-2.25

[SilverRex]

as you can see fcx has tested the 200EMA and trying to regain the neckline. as long as we remain above this neckline. the original bullish outlook that fcx is about to take off in a wave 3 sequence remains alive.

https://s23.postimg.org/b7o3nknnv/fcx_02_08_2017.png

[Manhattan]

Cdn energy is getting really interesting. Pretty close to the lows of last Feb. Still waiting on sub 50 oil.

[SilverRex]

after ccj producing 5 mini waves off the low yesterday. we got the follow thru sub wave 3 this morning. and looking like we have 1 more higher high to go before she corrects.

punching above 10.90 also confirms or greatly increased the probability that the bottom is in.

https://s29.postimg.org/o7bmnf7sn/ccj_02_08_2017.png

[civicHB]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Cdn energy is getting really interesting. Pretty close to the lows of last Feb. Still waiting on sub 50 oil.

which is better play BTE or MEG?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civicHB


which is better play BTE or MEG?

why not pick up both? even if it means investing half into each as a form of diversification. both look to benefit if oil was to make a moon shot move towards 60 oil.

i am also waiting for sub 50 oil, but be warned, oil could suddenly reverse and bottom here considering it has been holding above 50 oil pretty good for quite some time.

Meg has already tested the 6.00 area which is was a significant multimonth resistance turning into support.

BTE also achieved the minimum correctional behavior by driving below last year's Oct/Nov low.

a follow thru in the energy sector tomorrow could mean business

[Manhattan]

Bte and Meg might be good day trading stocks due to high leverage and volatility but if you're looking for a short term hold of a couple months there's much better options out there.

[civicHB]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Bte and Meg might be good day trading stocks due to high leverage and volatility but if you're looking for a short term hold of a couple months there's much better options out there.

any suggestions on the better short term options?

[Manhattan]

PGF, PWT, TOG, CJ, GTE are some of the ones I'm watching. But they're not all created equal so dyodd. Nat gas is worth a look too.

[Kloubek]

Natural gas scares me. It is the most volatile investment I've ever made, and I just don't trust it. I much prefer jnug for daily swing plays.

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by Kloubek
Natural gas scares me. It is the most volatile investment I've ever made, and I just don't trust it. I much prefer jnug for daily swing plays.
Part of it I think is there is a lot of technical factors and fundamentals you can look at with JNUG/JDST/NUGT/DUST, whereas in NG, there is less. I like playing NG on Thursday when the reports didn't somehow get priced in the day before, and the actual vs. expected storage inventory is much bigger. It's pretty much an instant 5-10% win in UGAZ/DGAZ within 10 minutes.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Disoblige

Part of it I think is there is a lot of technical factors and fundamentals you can look at with JNUG/JDST/NUGT/DUST, whereas in NG, there is less. I like playing NG on Thursday when the reports didn't somehow get priced in the day before, and the actual vs. expected storage inventory is much bigger. It's pretty much an instant 5-10% win in UGAZ/DGAZ within 10 minutes.

so which side of the fence are you going to be on by 8:30?

I found it dangerous. A lot of times it spikes in one direction just to reverse and go to the other direction. Hard to play, but sometimes it works.

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


so which side of the fence are you going to be on by 8:30?

I found it dangerous. A lot of times it spikes in one direction just to reverse and go to the other direction. Hard to play, but sometimes it works.
I'm thinking if the data is bullish, a quick scalp in the first 5-10 minutes and that's it. Typically the reversal happens within the first 15 minutes, and you do have time to escape with a stop worst case. Not playing DGAZ unless it's something it's something totally unexpected and large.

Also, starting to accumulate JNUG again as it goes lower, starting in mid to low 11's range. USD/JPY strong today, but I don't expect it to last.

[Disoblige]

Report was pretty pretty neutral, so I wouldn't really consider that very bullish. No position, not playing it.

But look at gold, wow. Almost a $10 correction and USD/JPY over 113. Almost near my target for first position in JNUG. Putting one position in at 10.99 if it can hit it.

[Kloubek]

That correction was intense, and I was holding. Not much point in trying to get out now to save face... just ride it through. This has been on a huge uptrend since mid December, so as long as that doesn't reverse I should be ok...

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by Kloubek
That correction was intense, and I was holding. Not much point in trying to get out now to save face... just ride it through. This has been on a huge uptrend since mid December, so as long as that doesn't reverse I should be ok...
For gold right? If so, yep. It's actually more surprising if gold just kept going up without building those important supports and resistances. This is really healthy consolidation.

You would only play JDST for a scalp day trade and I don't have enough time to watch it all day. So I don't have any intentions to play JDST. Just too dangerous unless you're watching it every minute.

1233 support :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

looks like gold did find the 1240 area formidable. the current expectation is to see gold/miner drop into a daily cycle low but depending on if the stock market and even oil is ready to make a big reversal and push to new highs, money may very well flow away from gold into equities given Trump is about to announce his tax plan

will take this opporunity to see where gold/miner lands and maybe get back into Jnug at the right price

fcx has moved back under the neckline and hence remains weak and bearish, I have moved the stop on my 3rd position under 15. if it takes me out I will just wait for 12s.

ccj is moving according to plan. has achieved a higher high to complete a larger 5 wave degree now should be in correction mode yet again before a bigger upside surprise.

oil has some follow thru, and if the stock market continues to make new high (due to Trump's tax plan drawing new money into the stock market) oil could get a boost and bottom may be in for the energy sector.

count wise, I was hoping bte has one more wave lower then I can start scaling back in. But price may have truncated 2 days ago. Not going to chase. oil play isnt my thing. sticking with commodities.

[littledan]

anyone following ACB?

coming out of the gate strong today. Up to $2.60 from its lows of $2.25 only a week ago.

The bought deal for $50MM closes on Feb 23 I believe. Does that mean the investment bank can start taking profits on that same day?

[SilverRex]

fcx continously teasing the bulls and bears. while as long as it remains below the red neckline, it remains bearish and view in the 12s is crystal clear. Yet it has broken a short term down trend line with positive MACD divergence.

so a false breakdown with recovery could yet still be bullish


https://s27.postimg.org/772k54kgj/fcx_02_09_2017.png

[SilverRex]

as you can see, so far I am counting we have 5 waves up. now a larger degree correction is unfolding as planned. So far it has met the minimum correction by testing the 200EMA on the 5m chart as well as dropping below the previous wave iv. but wave 2 are typically a 61% correction, so there is still potential for it to run towards 10.60

I already have 1 position open. may be looking to add another position some where in the buy zone (but with stop loss under 10.60)

the entire sell off could also still be just be wave A down with a wave B bounce up follow by a lower wave C.

https://s27.postimg.org/89cbryokz/ccj_02_09_2017.png

[Disoblige]

I have a position in JNUG at $11.39, and will add more and more as it goes down. I do not feel comfortable going in JDST as mentioned, even though it looks like there is some plays in there currently. Not going to worry unless we break that critical 1215 support.

But if we break 1251+ as I believe we will after this healthy consolidation, oh boy :drool: :drool: :drool:

One thing to note is I don't believe in diversification, so the account I play in is strictly all 3x ETFs and maybe the odd short term play in something else. I find the TFSA is perfect for plays like this because it would suck to pay capital gains on these profits.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
I have a position in JNUG at $11.39, and will add more and more as it goes down. I do not feel comfortable going in JDST as mentioned, even though it looks like there is some plays in there currently. Not going to worry unless we break that critical 1215 support.

But if we break 1251+ as I believe we will after this healthy consolidation, oh boy :drool: :drool: :drool:

One thing to note is I don't believe in diversification, so the account I play in is strictly all 3x ETFs and maybe the odd short term play in something else. I find the TFSA is perfect for plays like this because it would suck to pay capital gains on these profits.

speaking of TFSA, do you know exactly how the day trading affects the account? I know generally speaking there are no taxes. but I have read and heard stories where gov could ding you for day trading as income. But what makes one falls into this category? I can see if one continuously withdraw money on a regular basis would make sense. but does high trading frequency count?

ive grown my TFSA over 120% in about 15-16 months with high frequency trading but have not once withdraw any money.

[JDMMAN]

SilverRex - You'll be fine. You won't really have to worry about it. If you ever get questioned, you can show that your day job takes precedence. Plus, you don't "realize" the income unless you withdraw anyways. So you're essentially only increasing your equity by high frequency trades and not generating "income"

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by SilverRex


speaking of TFSA, do you know exactly how the day trading affects the account? I know generally speaking there are no taxes. but I have read and heard stories where gov could ding you for day trading as income. But what makes one falls into this category? I can see if one continuously withdraw money on a regular basis would make sense. but does high trading frequency count?

ive grown my TFSA over 120% in about 15-16 months with high frequency trading but have not once withdraw any money.
That was one of my first questions when I started trading, and I asked a lot of questions to my bank, and one of the first articles I found was this:

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/tfsa/this-bay-st-trader-managed-to-amass-1-25-million-in-his-tfsa-now-the-taxman-wants-to-know-how

It shouldn't be an issue unless you're making like a million or something, and even then, all you're going to get is audited. As JDMMAN says, if your day job is in the industry of trading, then you show that your job take precedence.

I grew my account 170% in the past 7 months, so I'll let you know if I get anything from the tax man this year, lol. I also didn't know I could high frequency trade until October where I realized T+3 doesn't apply in Canada. I too have not, withdrawn any money (and don't plan to).

I said this before: I think we are extremely lucky we can use the TFSA to trade like this with such little limitations. I would not be surprised if this changes in the near future, but I really hope it doesn't. If you are serious about trading (and I mean trading, not long term investing), you should totally use the TFSA for that. So good.

[riander5]

Look at you guys go, 170% and 120% each. Mines still even because im in oil and gas and not doing any swing trading... maybe i need to follow silverrexs advice more often :bigpimp:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Look at you guys go, 170% and 120% each. Mines still even because im in oil and gas and not doing any swing trading... maybe i need to follow silverrexs advice more often :bigpimp:

the problem, even i am not following my own advice enough, there was some big drawdowns and plenty of missed opportunity last year. but 2016 was a good year to learn and work out my risk management skills.

[SilverRex]

quick update on gold.

i mention the 1240 area is a key resistance and 200 day moving average. it has so far rejected price perfectly.

there is actually two counts possible at this time, similar to gdx/miners. i am currently leaning towards the black count suggesting gold has completed 5 waves up and now in a more significant correction that could come down all the way to 1180 over the next few weeks.

I lean towards this path because it feels like the stock market is ready to make a higher move, a rising equities market would dampen any momentum in the yellow metal.

and once the stock market finds a top and begins a much needed correction in a larger degree, that is when gold will make a very powerful move.

the alt path is an immediate bullish sequence in green where 5 waves was completed back when gold first hit 1220, follow by a larger wave 2 ending at 1180. and now we have wave i of 3 done and wave ii of 3 in progress that should remain above 1200-1204

which means the earliest one would considering entering in this correction is to wait until gold enters the low 1200-1210 area

https://s29.postimg.org/7bqa8pl07/gold_02_09_2017.png

[SilverRex]

some positive news coming out of fcx this morning lifting the market

will see if this becomes a launch pad catalyst for the big move or just another get out of jail card so price could hit the low 12s.

Indonesia issues new mining permits to Freeport, Amman -official

2 hours ago by Thomson Reuters

Companies Mentioned: FCX

JAKARTA, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Indonesia has issued new mining permits to the local unit of copper miner Freeport McMoRan Inc and Medco Energi Internasional unit Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara, an official at the country's mining ministry said on Friday.

With the new permits, the two companies could apply immediately for a resumption to exports that were stopped on Jan. 12, Coal and Minerals Director General Bambang Gatot told reporters. (Reporting by Wilda Asmarini; Writing by Fergus Jensen; Editing by David Goodman)

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by riander5
Look at you guys go, 170% and 120% each. Mines still even because im in oil and gas and not doing any swing trading... maybe i need to follow silverrexs advice more often :bigpimp:

They can offset their gains with my losses haha

[SilverRex]

the lower time frame looks like sub wave iv consolidation completed and currently breaking out.even if today's rally is just a counter rally, looking for GPL to make a move to at least test the previous top and complete this 5 wave sequence was has been text book every since it bottomed back in Oct/Nov

https://s30.postimg.org/8afaebyrl/gpl_02_10_2017.png

[Vanish3d]

do we have a miners breakout?
and gold having a cup and handle on the 5m charts

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
do we have a miners breakout?
and gold having a cup and handle on the 5m charts

yes breaking out on the 5m time frame. believe it or not, I actually want to see gold test 1180 so I can get a better entry back into Jnug.

gold hasnt even tested the 38% of the 1180-1244 runup which lies around 1219.

my feeling is, this could be a fake bounce. even if it goes all the way and hit 1250 for a new high, personally I am only waiting for a good entry.

also GPL. push thru that 2.10 zone already. I want to take profit off at 2.20 and wait for a pull back to 1.7-1.8 (based on count)

the flip side is that if 2.20 breaks to the upside all in one go, it could also be a powerful breakout. that is why I will not completely exit.

[BavarianBeast]

I've majorly increased my position with Blackbird Energy, BBI.V.

I had taken a small position about 2 years ago and was up over 100% on it, happy to add to my position at these levels. I think they will become a decently large montney player in the next couple years.

[secol]

BBI got a decent jump when they purchased more land from POU last week in exchange for shares. seems to be hitting resistance of 0.69. acquisition closing is the 15th. wonder when/if POU will liquidate their position since that might present a bit of a buying opp? i already hold a small position in BBI as well from last year, *only* up 20%

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/blackbird-energy-inc-increases-montney-land-holdings-102-gross-sections-968-net-through-tsx-venture-bbi-2192904.htm

[EF9 Sedan]

I've had terrible luck with JNUG the past two weeks... I buy one direction, it shoots the opposite. lol I should share with everyone the direction I'm buying so they can buy the opposite and profit.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by EF9 Sedan
I've had terrible luck with JNUG the past two weeks... I buy one direction, it shoots the opposite. lol I should share with everyone the direction I'm buying so they can buy the opposite and profit.

or learn to do the opposite yourself :)

[GT.....O?]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
I've majorly increased my position with Blackbird Energy, BBI.V.

I had taken a small position about 2 years ago and was up over 100% on it, happy to add to my position at these levels. I think they will become a decently large montney player in the next couple years.


I posted about them in July, when they were around 0.18-0.20.

I also think they are going to do really well, and headed in the right direction, they have more drilling and fracs coming up, and with finally tieing in thier production i think we could see another good bump.

Of course, having a positive outlook on it is easy when your up 125%... :D :D .. average share price of 30 cents

[Mack10]

What happened with Umbral Energy? (CNSX:UMB), up 100% in the last 2 hours of trading today. Don't see any news or updates. I've been holding on to this forever and have been wanting to get rid of it. Hopefully this isn't a pump and dump and I missed the boat

[oster]

Originally posted by secol
BBI got a decent jump when they purchased more land from POU last week in exchange for shares. seems to be hitting resistance of 0.69. acquisition closing is the 15th. wonder when/if POU will liquidate their position since that might present a bit of a buying opp? i already hold a small position in BBI as well from last year, *only* up 20%

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/blackbird-energy-inc-increases-montney-land-holdings-102-gross-sections-968-net-through-tsx-venture-bbi-2192904.htm

I held a large position of BBI w/ avg of 0.45... Sold and bought their warrants instead. The time value right now is 0.06 which I feel is a bargain and outlook is great.

I don't think POU would exchange land for shares and then turn around and sell the shares for just a incremental profit. They see long term value with BBI.

[secol]

yeah. i just remember VII - POU last year and VII sold the majority of their POU shares in the year of acquisition i think

[SilverRex]

gold breaking down the H&S neckline which remains bearish with a potential target of the 1200 area. However, it has also produced a reversal hammer by testing and bouncing off the 18% retracement of the 1180-1244 move.

with miners creating a higher low while gold made a lower low this week, caution surprise is to the upside shall gold close above 1232._


https://s7.postimg.org/i6fhsjrff/gold_02_13_2017.png

[SilverRex]

ccj continues to move like the bottom is in.

fcx also holding well, not sure if it requires more news out of the permit thing to garner traction. not doing anything here, might move up my stop loss

gpl that final wave 5 of 5 move, it did manage to poke slightly higher by a few pennies (above 2.10 to 2.12) not sure if this is all she wrote and a bigger correction begins possibly back down to the 1.8 area.

I was hoping for an exit around 2.2, but if this does not come or I have to ride thru a daily cycle draw down, then so be it. not going to miss the upside potential by being to cute with the smaller swings.

[SilverRex]

this is my interpretation and count still hasnt changed from the last time I posted a chart on this. still expecting a wave C low.

I believe oil has made 5 waves off 42 and still in correction possible diving towards 50 or slightly under 1 last time for wave C of (ii) then wave (iii) will be fun and to realize the iH&S target in the 60-75

however if oil breaks under 47, all bullish bets are off the table.


https://s18.postimg.org/5dpwv5wll/oil_02_13_2017.png

[Vanish3d]

so is this a good time to start buying UGAZ?
it looks like it just touched the trend line.
https://s4.postimg.org/vl435y0hp/natgaz.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
so is this a good time to start buying UGAZ?
it looks like it just touched the trend line.
https://s4.postimg.org/vl435y0hp/natgaz.jpg

possibly, i was looking more around 2.7-2.8 area for a quick flip. My chart shows the line in that area anyways. though keep one thing in mind, this is the 4th time it has tested that rising neckline. a break = Ro4 breakout or breakdown which is a significant signal.

[SilverRex]

gold has negated the h&s neckline i mention yesterday and currently looks bullish

update: spoke too soon, looking like a head fake, basically 1232 rejected price and gold is now closing back below the neckline. bearish tone resumes.

ccj is flying this morning

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex


possibly, i was looking more around 2.7-2.8 area for a quick flip. My chart shows the line in that area anyways. though keep one thing in mind, this is the 4th time it has tested that rising neckline. a break = Ro4 breakout or breakdown which is a significant signal.

let's try it for a quick flip. I picked up UGAZ at 20. If it could make a 10% today that would be just great !

[SilverRex]

after ccj bottomed beautifully under 10.5 for wave v of C of (II). it is playing out in wave iii of (i)

I do not expect it to break out above 13 just yet and would expect a good wave 2 pull back (sort of like the wave i-ii under 11 big on a bigger degree.

the real wave (iii) will be fun once it begins.

https://s17.postimg.org/khwsuiz2n/ccj_02_14_2017.png

[SilverRex]

for Nak/ndm.to I was waiting for a big correction (big reason why I took profit early). and so finally some negative news came out and crushed it 30% this morning.

considering I made some good coin in this, I will use the profit made and may scoop up a small position if I see a lower low. I may have to tread carefully as the drop is pretty impulsive and if the top was actually wave 5 of (1), then a wave 2 could drag price down to the 0.6-1.15 area

[bball2]

Reason for the drop in gold this morning?

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38972572

[Vanish3d]

damn, got greedy and didn't take profits from UGAZ, instead got stopped at break even.

Now I'm considering DGAZ as it's flirting with the support line

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by bball2
Reason for the drop in gold this morning?

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38972572
Yep, absolutely. Good day to trade leveraged miners.
Whether or not they do hike in March is debatable and probably unlikely, but keeping this option open I believe was Yellen's intent.

[SilverRex]

just a big picture bullish view on fcx. if it doesnt drop to 12s and contines to hold above 15-16. the longer it trades here, the more I sense a strong move will follow one way or the either.

how many 1-2 setups does it take before she explodes? we will see quite soon

https://s13.postimg.org/dfh9tgo07/fcx_02_14_2017.png

[quick_scar]

Originally posted by secol
yeah. i just remember VII - POU last year and VII sold the majority of their POU shares in the year of acquisition i think

Other way around. POU got VII shares in the deal and have probably sold most by now.

[SilverRex]

if there is still any more downside to energy, it has to turn back down now. energy shares are up against key resistance lines. any more upside momentum would create a very bullish structure.

as much as I want to get in oil play under 50.00, keep in mind that price has been very stable above 50 for the past month. and if price was to make a new high, this move could be a wave 3 move off the 50 area and the hunt towards the coveted 60-70 oil will resume.

[SilverRex]

nak/ndm.to trade halted again. I think more bad press coming. at this rate, the super low target that nak could drop back down to sub 1 dollar could be realized sooner rather than later. best i sit on the side line to see how this develops.

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by SilverRex
if there is still any more downside to energy, it has to turn back down now. energy shares are up against key resistance lines. any more upside momentum would create a very bullish structure.

as much as I want to get in oil play under 50.00, keep in mind that price has been very stable above 50 for the past month. and if price was to make a new high, this move could be a wave 3 move off the 50 area and the hunt towards the coveted 60-70 oil will resume.

What about fundamentals? What if OPEC doesn't cut anymore and US shale keeps ramping up production?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


What about fundamentals? What if OPEC doesn't cut anymore and US shale keeps ramping up production?

that does and can have a serious impact to oil prices. but personally I believe something else is brewing. for Opec to cut in 8 years may be a show of desperation.

Not in attempt to counter balance the shale industry, but rather what is coming. These guys are crooks and knows how things will unfold way before we ever do. by the time the retail sector gets wind, prices will have reflected and on the rise.

I believe in the peak oil theory and that it wont be long when production will drop faster before demand ever peaks.

I will be more worried about higher oil prices which could cripple the world economy and bring about the next major global recession.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex


that does and can have a serious impact to oil prices. but personally I believe something else is brewing. for Opec to cut in 8 years may be a show of desperation.

Not in attempt to counter balance the shale industry, but rather what is coming. These guys are crooks and knows how things will unfold way before we ever do. by the time the retail sector gets wind, prices will have reflected and on the rise.

I believe in the peak oil theory and that it wont be long when production will drop faster before demand ever peaks.

I will be more worried about higher oil prices which could cripple the world economy and bring about the next major global recession.

HELOC on Oil futures he we go! lol jk

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
nak/ndm.to trade halted again. I think more bad press coming. at this rate, the super low target that nak could drop back down to sub 1 dollar could be realized sooner rather than later. best i sit on the side line to see how this develops.

Coulda made some serious dough if I had the cajones if I got in when RSI bottomed or MACD crossed over... Unfortunately my investing cajones are tiny

[SilverRex]

gpl has been a very predictable charting ever since it bottomed in Oct/Nov last year. since then I believe I am counting it on the verge of completing 5 waves up. pending wave 5 doesnt extend (in black) the conservative expectation is to see it it find rejection in the 2.2 area then a more significant pull back begins.

personally I intend to remove some profit off the table in anticipation (similar to how I exited it in nak/ndm.to) while prematurely as more profits was left on the table. I just had to stick to my own exit strategy.

The only thing that worries me isnt seeing GPL drop back down to the rising trendline. but rather the potential upside if it takes out 2.2-2.25 area which would quickly push price to 3.00 imo.

unless I am counting this wrong and we are in the heart of wave 3 still where by the previous waves are actually 1-2, 1-2 and we just had our wave 1 of 3 move. If this is the case, then we would see price remain above 1.9 no matter what.

https://s27.postimg.org/z0s3vkqcz/gpl_02_15_2017.png

[riander5]

Well considering your C wave of your 3-4 correction didnt go lower than A that would suggest you are still in wave 3

[littledan]

anyone in APH?

Shit has been on a tear last 2 days. I have a small position and had a buy order in yesterday to add but it did not get filled... fuark. Would have been up $0.50 already on that new position. Not sure if I want to enter now or wait for a possible pullback.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Well considering your C wave of your 3-4 correction didnt go lower than A that would suggest you are still in wave 3

wave C does not always have to be lower than wave A, its more rare but happens. usually it is even more bullish in this setup they call it a running flat

[BavarianBeast]

Does anybody have an opinion on Marksmen Energy? MAH.V?

If anybody's been following or has input that would be great, cheers

[jacky4566]

MAH.V. A Canadian company with interest in Ohio?

Seems like they dont have much right now and have done all their ROI calculations at 75/bbl.
I personally dont see any huge red flags but unless something major happens in the oil world this is a long term investment.

[SilverRex]

those who hold shares or interesting in Nak/Ndm.to

here is a report I came across

(ALERT

February 14, 2017

Urgent Update on Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK)

If you own shares of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK) you may know they fell more than 36% in the first hour of trading today.

Kerrisdale Capital, a New York-based hedge fund, issued a scathing report on the company. It also disclosed a short position in the company’s stock.

Northern Dynasty controls the world’s largest undeveloped gold deposit. Located in Alaska, the Pebble deposit didn’t stand a chance against onerous Obama-era EPA regulations. It does stand a chance at development during the Trump years.

In the report, Kerrisdale calls Northern Dynasty's gold hoard "worthless." They point to the company's massive development capital needs. It may need $7 billion, $8 billion, or even $10 billion to develop its project. With 70 million ounces of gold, 57 billion pounds of copper, and 344 million ounces of silver in the ground, those capital requirements don’t seem so daunting. A $100-per-ounce increase in the price of gold raises the project’s value by $7 billion… completely changing the picture of high development costs.

Kerrisdale also points to the company’s difficulty obtaining a mining permit. Pebble became a political issue. Obama even visited the region. He took photos with locals and made statements that hurt Pebble. Considering the region has roughly two residents per square mile, there’s no way he went there on his own to get votes.

When we recommended buying shares of NAK last August, we shared a YouTube video of Robert Redford. In it, he makes a passionate case against mining Pebble’s gold.

We predict President Trump’s EPA will be far less political than the one that preceded it. We also don’t think Trump answers to movie stars and billionaire liberals. Instead, he represents the people. At least that’s what we’ve seen so far. If it keeps up, his administration may see the massive economic value in developing Pebble.

Doug Casey visited Pebble last summer. He noted the minuscule portion of Bristol Bay affected by the deposit. He also noted the radical advances made in mining technology. Modern mines have a far less noticeable impact on the environment than they did in the 1970s or 1980s.

Finally, Kerrisdale points to the “low grade” of Pebble’s gold. In order to recover its 70 million ounces of gold, the company must move and process 6.5 billion tonnes of earth. That means it would pull one troy ounce of gold from every 91 tonnes of earth processed.

What Kerrisdale hasn’t considered is that the Pebble mine sits unencumbered, ready for open-pit mining. The deposit’s low grade would make it impossible to mine if it was buried a mile under the earth’s surface. That’s not the case.

We could have saved Kerrisdale a lot of time. We knew about all of Pebble’s problems years ago. The difference is we think a rising gold price and a mining-friendly administration are more important.

This is not our first run-in with Kerrisdale. Late last summer, the firm wrote a similar hit piece on First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG). In it, they called for the company’s shares to fall “70%–80%” from current levels. They also disclosed a short position in the company’s stock taken prior to publishing.

First Majestic shares fell on that news. The fall triggered our trailing stop loss, taking us out of our position. They later recovered. We re-entered the trade, and First Majestic returned to its proper place as one of the best silver-mining firms we know of.

For now, we’re maintaining our BUY recommendation.

BUY Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK) up to $3 per share. Use a 50% trailing stop loss on the position.)



this explains the buying each time price dives near 2.00. personally I want to see a lower low then I will be interested.

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by jacky4566
MAH.V. A Canadian company with interest in Ohio?

Seems like they dont have much right now and have done all their ROI calculations at 75/bbl.
I personally dont see any huge red flags but unless something major happens in the oil world this is a long term investment.

Yep, they're the one.

I'm thinking about meeting with the CEO later this week to discuss the warrant options. I've always thought warrants were a bunch of trash that always expire before strike, but these ones sound somewhat interesting..

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


Yep, they're the one.

I'm thinking about meeting with the CEO later this week to discuss the warrant options. I've always thought warrants were a bunch of trash that always expire before strike, but these ones sound somewhat interesting..

Keep me posted. Im curious. Dont own but been following and have a copy of their dec presentation.

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


Keep me posted. Im curious. Dont own but been following and have a copy of their dec presentation.

Will do.

Anybody thinking about getting into Source Energy's IPO?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-14/source-energy-said-to-seek-c-250-million-in-toronto-ipo

[buh_buh]

I've owned some MAH for a couple years now. Bought back when they were on the rise, and held it through their subsequent crash. I'm interested too, just for curiousity sake.

[bball2]

Originally posted by littledan
anyone in APH?

Shit has been on a tear last 2 days. I have a small position and had a buy order in yesterday to add but it did not get filled... fuark. Would have been up $0.50 already on that new position. Not sure if I want to enter now or wait for a possible pullback.

Yeah I have positions in APH, WEED, and ACB. APH is definitely the top performer for me :thumbsup: