Official Short-term Investments Thread

[riander5]

I only have my original CGC investment gains sitting around in weed

[riander5]

How much of your guys portfolios do you have in weed?

Id like to invest more but im also worried about its volatility.

Dont want to look back in 2-3 years at this post and hate my current self for not taking the risk!

[taemo]

Originally posted by riander5
How much of your guys portfolios do you have in weed?

Id like to invest more but im also worried about its volatility.

Dont want to look back in 2-3 years at this post and hate my current self for not taking the risk!

very small %, only weed stock I'm long term on is APH.
GLH for fun.

[Manhattan]

Why would you WANT to take on risk? You want to maximize your returns while taking on as little risk as possible. Long story short, max 2.5 to 5% on a gamble like that.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Why would you WANT to take on risk? You want to maximize your returns while taking on as little risk as possible. Long story short, max 2.5 to 5% on a gamble like that.

There is also increasing risk to increase return and maximizing that formula at every given risk level.

[Mack10]

Originally posted by bball2


Yeah I have positions in APH, WEED, and ACB. APH is definitely the top performer for me :thumbsup:

I'm in ACB, Weed and BLO. BLO is getting killed lately

[SilverRex]

update on gold. it has managed to find its way back above 1232, initially it looked like a head fake and sure enough it made a lower low, but none of the neckline break down was able to hold price down for further weakness, price has not not only reclosed back above the previous 2 neckline breakdowns but now has turned up above the 2 orange trendline breaks to the upside.

I have to say, as long as price holds above the 200EMA above 1225. gold is in bullish mode. a higher high coming. with price clearly above 1220, next target would be the 50% and 61% retracement of the 1375-1123 down move at 1249 and 1279

https://s22.postimg.org/6bgtpzfw1/gold_02_16_2017.png

[SilverRex]

fcx looking pretty weak, reclosed back under the alimportant neckline. my stop is within striking distance. if I get taken out, I will gladly just wait this one out until I either see 12s or a breakout above 16.56. still holding 2 position in the low 13s that I will not touch

[jacky4566]

With that Rex any advice on miner? JNUG has been fairly reserved for the past week. Consider a buy at the current levels?

[SilverRex]

with GG and ABX beating earnings, they are both moving/breaking out. at this rate they will soon test their 52 week highs.

to me gold looks bullish right at this moment especially moving along side a rising stock market lately. shows underlying strength.

if one has no position, you can certainly enter at any price and watch gold at 1231 and 1225 are my two must hold zones

[bball2]

Originally posted by riander5
How much of your guys portfolios do you have in weed?

Id like to invest more but im also worried about its volatility.

Dont want to look back in 2-3 years at this post and hate my current self for not taking the risk!

10%, split pretty evenly amongst WEED, ACB, and APH

[riander5]

Originally posted by bball2


10%, split pretty evenly amongst WEED, ACB, and APH

100% ! You are a maniac. Whats your average price on all of those?

[roopi]

Originally posted by Mack10


I'm in ACB, Weed and BLO. BLO is getting killed lately

I was looking at BLO then I street viewed their headquarters address from their website.

Currently holding APH and will let this one ride. Looking at purchasing TBP as a higher risk one. I sold out of WEED before their earning came out the other day.

[asp integra]

Whats going on with Teck.a?

[roopi]

Originally posted by asp integra
Whats going on with Teck.a?

Earnings beat expectations. Stock goes down. Seems about normal. :rofl:

Maybe its related to the news from Suncor regarding the delays on Fort Hills and increased costs. :dunno:

[taemo]

Originally posted by bball2


10%, split pretty evenly amongst WEED, ACB, and APH

might be putting some money down for ACB in preparation of their earning result next Thursday.

[littledan]

I'm in APH, ACB, and SL.

I have about 50 % of my portfolio in these green stocks. yes, super high risk, however, when was the last time an industry was opened up like this? (note that my portfolio is really small at ~$25k, &I have a defined pension plan for security)

If ACB can build out aurora sky, they are looking at $500MM per year in earnings if costs and sale prices remain close to what they are now.

[bball2]

Originally posted by riander5


100% ! You are a maniac. Whats your average price on all of those?

Weed - 9.605
Aph - 4.92 :eek: :thumbsup:
Acb - 2.21

Edit: I said 10%, not 100% :-P

[riander5]

Who is going to take a swing at LABD ?? LABU overbought and ready for a correction...

[bball2]

Nice little uptick for MEG right now

[shakalaka]

This may have been asked before but this thread has freaking 770+ pages so I didn't read it all. I have thinking of investing some money that I had had sitting in my RRSP account. It's just sitting in savings under the RRSP bracket and I know that's just stupid.

I have been thinking about either stocks (divided between 3 or 4 I have heard about from friends/family) or mutual funds. I have never invested in stocks or mutual funds before so I have no idea what to expect. I've been doing some reading and I understand generally how stocks work, risks involved etc but no first hand experience with it. I was thinking of making an appointment with some RBC financial consultant and go from there, but I am open to any ideas, suggestions, help you guys can provide.

[ercchry]

Edit:^^^ stay away from "hot tips" from friends and families unless these people actually have a track record with playing the market and can also give you defined entry and exit points

If you want to chase that stuff, use your tfsa.

I would personally NOT talk to the "RBC guy" his job is to sell you on the product he knows nothing about, and gives him the best payday for himself

If you want to self direct this account check out the couch potato stuff and stick to etf's to keep the transactional charges down.

If you want something managed, stick to the private equity guys. Lots out there with reasonably low minimums


Originally posted by littledan
I'm in APH, ACB, and SL.

I have about 50 % of my portfolio in these green stocks. yes, super high risk, however, when was the last time an industry was opened up like this? (note that my portfolio is really small at ~$25k, &I have a defined pension plan for security)

If ACB can build out aurora sky, they are looking at $500MM per year in earnings if costs and sale prices remain close to what they are now.

I honestly just don't get it, the ONLY way I see any of these companies even surviving legalization is with full protectionism measures put in place, which I believe will be a long shot with the strength of the BC lobbyists (ie. how they over turned the medical system so patients can grow their own again)

The inconsistency of these publicly traded companies from a consumer prospective is embarrassing for their size and the money behind them, they seem to never have consistent stock, the quality of product from most of them is garbage, their oils are embarrassingly overpriced, and they legally just can't compete with the booming concentrates market in BC

If the legal system the liberals come up with even remotely looks like Colorado, this bubble is over

[riander5]

Can you expand on your point on why you think if our system resembles colorado the bubble will burst?

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5
Who is going to take a swing at LABD ?? LABU overbought and ready for a correction...

If XBI tests near 70 again, I'm going to take a crack at LABD

[shakalaka]

Originally posted by ercchry
Edit:^^^ stay away from "hot tips" from friends and families unless these people actually have a track record with playing the market and can also give you defined entry and exit points

If you want to chase that stuff, use your tfsa.

I would personally NOT talk to the "RBC guy" his job is to sell you on the product he knows nothing about, and gives him the best payday for himself

If you want to self direct this account check out the couch potato stuff and stick to etf's to keep the transactional charges down.

If you want something managed, stick to the private equity guys. Lots out there with reasonably low minimums



I honestly just don't get it, the ONLY way I see any of these companies even surviving legalization is with full protectionism measures put in place, which I believe will be a long shot with the strength of the BC lobbyists (ie. how they over turned the medical system so patients can grow their own again)

The inconsistency of these publicly traded companies from a consumer prospective is embarrassing for their size and the money behind them, they seem to never have consistent stock, the quality of product from most of them is garbage, their oils are embarrassingly overpriced, and they legally just can't compete with the booming concentrates market in BC

If the legal system the liberals come up with even remotely looks like Colorado, this bubble is over

Couple of points if you don't mind elaborating.

Why use TFSA and not RRSP? The reason why I am leaning towards RRSP is because the money I have in that is tied up for long term anyway. So I wouldn't mind using that to invest in stocks or mutual funds depending on what I decide to go with.

The money sitting in TFSA's is more liquid, in the sense that I like having the flexibility of being able to take it out when say I want to invest in some real estate or other similar opportunities.

I understand the tax implications that whatever I make on TFSA savings will be tax free vs RRSP, but other than any other reasons?

I think I have no choice but to meet with a financial advisor at my bank because currently my accounts don't allow me to purchase stocks and stuff. My understanding is that I would need them to activate that option so I can make sales/purchases myself. I don't want to go through them on a daily basis as their fees are probably way too much for every transaction. But I do have to meet them initially in order to set up my TFSA and RRSP accounts in a way that I can do more than just keep money under the savings bracket.:dunno:

[bball2]

I tend to pick higher risk / higher reward options on my TFSA and more long term / dividend paying stocks in my RRSP.

To each their own, but I would prefer to have higher liquid assets in the case that something does hit big.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by riander5
Can you expand on your point on why you think if our system resembles colorado the bubble will burst?

With the current medical rules, those that want to actually conform to them require massive capital, which is what we are seeing right now, but if you look at the gray market in BC, which is a lot closer to how things operate in Colorado you can see what can be with lower barriers to entry... which I think smaller local businesses will kill off the sub-par producers that are currently priced at insane evaluations due to better quality, better variety of products, and also the instant gratification of buying something on site vs waiting 2-3 days for the mail man. Cause let's be honest, your casual recreational user is going decide Friday night that he wants to get high... that night



Originally posted by shakalaka


Couple of points if you don't mind elaborating.

Why use TFSA and not RRSP? The reason why I am leaning towards RRSP is because the money I have in that is tied up for long term anyway. So I wouldn't mind using that to invest in stocks or mutual funds depending on what I decide to go with.

The money sitting in TFSA's is more liquid, in the sense that I like having the flexibility of being able to take it out when say I want to invest in some real estate or other similar opportunities.

I understand the tax implications that whatever I make on TFSA savings will be tax free vs RRSP, but other than any other reasons?

I think I have no choice but to meet with a financial advisor at my bank because currently my accounts don't allow me to purchase stocks and stuff. My understanding is that I would need them to activate that option so I can make sales/purchases myself. I don't want to go through them on a daily basis as their fees are probably way too much for every transaction. But I do have to meet them initially in order to set up my TFSA and RRSP accounts in a way that I can do more than just keep money under the savings bracket.:dunno:

Rrsp should be your safe, long term investment vehicle (if you have enough capital to max out both those contributions and also your tfsa). Hot tips from friends and family are NOT safe, long term investments... so stick to the tfsa with that stuff

If you want to self direct either account you will want to actually just move that capital from your bank to your choice of online brokerage... which they can setup for you. But again, I'd choose a private equity broker for the rrsp, and probably a self-directed questrade (or similar) tfsa with guidance from something like couch potato on picking etf's, with questrade they have very low, or no fees to buy and sell most etf's

I will not give you a recommendation on a wealth broker, but examples of what they offer is things like private investment in different industries, usually secured on something like say real estate... last pitch I got was from a guy who offers 12% dividends paid out monthly, and minimum investments of $5k... but this is an area where you MUST do your own homework so you don't end up with a concrete equities situation (but since then the security commission has put in a lot more regulations)

[riander5]

Originally posted by ercchry


With the current medical rules, those that want to actually conform to them require massive capital, which is what we are seeing right now, but if you look at the gray market in BC, which is a lot closer to how things operate in Colorado you can see what can be with lower barriers to entry... which I think smaller local businesses will kill off the sub-par producers that are currently priced at insane evaluations due to better quality, better variety of products, and also the instant gratification of buying something on site vs waiting 2-3 days for the mail man. Cause let's be honest, your casual recreational user is going decide Friday night that he wants to get high... that night


Not sure I agree 100% - I have many friends who smoked weed for a long time and are ALL about this current mail system. Not saying they wont visit dispensaries when the day comes, but with so many young families living in the boonies these days, what easier, planning a day or two in advance or a 2 hours trip somewhere more central the day of? Im seeing MANY people using the current mail system.

[jacky4566]

Originally posted by bball2
Nice little uptick for MEG right now

Finally, Closed at 7.10. My avg is 7.8 so still some to go. If oil breaks out above 54 maybe we will see MEG@10 by the end of the month?

Also littledan dont worry I win smallest portfolio with around 3k. #poorpeople

[ercchry]

Originally posted by riander5


Not sure I agree 100% - I have many friends who smoked weed for a long time and are ALL about this current mail system. Not saying they wont visit dispensaries when the day comes, but with so many young families living in the boonies these days, what easier, planning a day or two in advance or a 2 hours trip somewhere more central the day of? Im seeing MANY people using the current mail system.

I'm using the current system, have access to 3 producers... I rarely order from any due to lack of stock, cost, and piss poor quality. Majority of my orders come from a Vancouver based dispensary

[Manhattan]

Seems most prefer to take risks in TFSA and play safe in RRSP. I guess it depends on your situation but I don't see much use in differentiating risk between the two. If I was taking a flyer I'd rather do it in RRSP. Plenty of room to load up every year. TFSA is the more "valuable" of the two types of accounts IMO and to lose the contribution room forever if your bet doesn't pay off is much more damaging.

My strategy is to hold US stocks in RRSP since the TFSA isn't recognized as a tax free shelter there.

[riander5]

Originally posted by ercchry


I'm using the current system, have access to 3 producers... I rarely order from any due to lack of stock, cost, and piss poor quality. Majority of my orders come from a Vancouver based dispensary

So in your opinion local guys will have better stock and quality then major players once they get their supply chain figured out?

[ercchry]

Originally posted by riander5


So in your opinion local guys will have better stock and quality then major players once they get their supply chain figured out?

Really is going to come down to the regulations... but considering right now that the BC growers are under $1/g cost, it's going to be hard to contend with the mom and pop setups when you have to satisfy the shareholders. Basically how BC operates now. Shops have a network of small local producers, who also create niche products. Money can be made so these large nation wide producers are going to have to compete with that... if it can legally exist... it's very possible that protectionism measures are put in place and it's only going to be these large current producers competing against each other, which in that case I believe it's already priced in, cause there is no way in hell that the current 40k medical users can prop up all these companies at their current values

[SilverRex]

looking at gold this morning the very bullish count gives us a 1-2, 1-2 setup so long price remains above the 200EMA (red) otherwise we could be looking at a drop back to the 1226-1228 area which must hold to risk negating all of the bullish momentum gold has built over the past week.

https://s13.postimg.org/52z70xn5z/gold_02_17_2017.png

[SilverRex]

fcx has taken out my stop on the 3rd position which I entered late. Guess just going to wait for a much lower entry now that it has opened up the low 13s and may even get to fill the gap left in the 12s.

was looking at drys this morning.

drys_looks like it is in range trading or consolidation after a big up move over 2 weeks ago. The massive volume has me intrigue at this suppose worthless stock. with volume, chart becomes tradable
​​​​​​​so far it looks like a classic ABC_flag or perhaps it may turn into a 5 pt flag, definitely_has upside breakout potential targeting the 8s. I have some beer money and had my stops below pt c, but moved up to just under wave (ii) low will see if this beer money play can turn into a weekend get away.

if price falls below pt c, then it will most likely resume what ever it was doing prior and that is going to 0_

https://s21.postimg.org/azie3z98n/drys_02_17_2017.png

[SilverRex]

well thats it. with GPL hitting 2.21 this moring, I have taking half my GPR position off the table. bought at 1.54 sold at 2.87 (86%), essentially taking out my initial investment and leaving the profit in as long as I can.

or if gpl suddenly does hit an intermediate cycle top and pulls back like 30% I might be tempted to re-enter my position.

[bball2]

Originally posted by Manhattan
My strategy is to hold US stocks in RRSP since the TFSA isn't recognized as a tax free shelter there.

Really? I wasn't aware that holding US stocks in a TFSA could result in taxes.

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by bball2


Really? I wasn't aware that holding US stocks in a TFSA could result in taxes.
It's only on the dividends.

[bball2]

Originally posted by Disoblige

It's only on the dividends.

Ahh okay that makes sense. :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

usa.to

looks like it is very close to a major breakout move. I have 1 position at 2.88

unlike gpl/grp, my position size isnt all that large 5% compare to 20% of my portfolio. but still a position none the less.

once it breaks out into the 5-6s I will also remove my initial investment and let the rest ride

https://s21.postimg.org/w4qu43nrb/usa_02_17_2017.png

[bspot]

Starting to scale into LABD. Looking for XBI to pull back to the $66 range before advancing further.

[SilverRex]

Nak/ndm.to

so far it looks like price is moving in a 5pt bear flag targeting a lower low. I may consider re-enter a position under 1.8 to complete the 5 waves down structure

However I have been told from other EW counters, this thing could correct as low as 0.6-1.15

because it may have completed a major 5 wave top back at 3.40 and so the correction should be a significant one.

if that is the case, then this 5 waves down will only be the first wave A. Will keep my positions small and will only be using the profits I made from the 1.39 - 3.19 ride up.

https://s24.postimg.org/9qa2wp59h/nak_02_17_2017.png

[SilverRex]

fcx clearly is bearish at this moment. after failing to sustain above the neckline breakout now find its head back under water and soon will drown down wards as gravity would love to pull her down to the 13s even 12s from the obvious h&s target.

the only bullish short term stance would be to view the lower high denoted by wave v(i) as a truncated 5th. then there is a possibility that the recent drop could be a A=C move.

I would only begin to entertain this idea if fcx manages to get back and sustain herself above water at 15.50+ a safer bet would be to even buy on the breakout above 16.50

until this happens. my current limit order is in the 12s.

https://s18.postimg.org/3uvrkcah5/fcx_02_17_2017.png

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot
Starting to scale into LABD. Looking for XBI to pull back to the $66 range before advancing further.

I jumped the gun by a day on LABD, but im still confident in my play. In the hole 3% now will monitor closely thought... will clear my position and wait for lower entry if i get 5-6% down but i hope that doesnt happen.

[littledan]

Originally posted by riander5


I jumped the gun by a day on LABD, but im still confident in my play. In the hole 3% now will monitor closely thought... will clear my position and wait for lower entry if i get 5-6% down but i hope that doesnt happen.

So LABD is pretty much at all time lows... what is the play on this trade? enter a speculative position that might pay off big time?

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by littledan


So LABD is pretty much at all time lows... what is the play on this trade? enter a speculative position that might pay off big time?
If you want to gamble and put a stop loss, sure.
But this is 3x ETF, there is no bottom. All time lows doesn't really mean anything, as these can keep reverse splitting indefinitely. Risky IMO.

[littledan]

Originally posted by Disoblige

If you want to gamble and put a stop loss, sure.
But this is 3x ETF, there is no bottom. All time lows doesn't really mean anything, as these can keep reverse splitting indefinitely. Risky IMO.

OK gotcha. I've never traded a leveraged ETF so not going to start until I have a better grasp.

So basically this would be a monitored trade where you enter and exit on momentum to snipe a few bucks when the sector is moving.

[riander5]

Originally posted by littledan


OK gotcha. I've never traded a leveraged ETF so not going to start until I have a better grasp.

So basically this would be a monitored trade where you enter and exit on momentum to snipe a few bucks when the sector is moving.

Im not playing it based off of all time lows, im playing based off of the momentum indicators mostly. RSI, Stoich RSI, MACD, AO,

Normally bio takes a breather and has been quite predictable over the last little while, if you take a couple 2-4% losses, you can make a 10-20% gain once you pick the right entry. I cant upload pictures at work but will this weekend as to why I chose to enter

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5


Im not playing it based off of all time lows, im playing based off of the momentum indicators mostly. RSI, Stoich RSI, MACD, AO,

Normally bio takes a breather and has been quite predictable over the last little while, if you take a couple 2-4% losses, you can make a 10-20% gain once you pick the right entry. I cant upload pictures at work but will this weekend as to why I chose to enter

What's you're price target? I was thinking conservatively XBI = 66. You're absolutely right that some of the corrections are monster though. I get weak hands with inverse ETFs. It's a little easier to hold their bull counterparts.

[J-hop]

Originally posted by SilverRex
fcx clearly is bearish at this moment. after failing to sustain above the neckline breakout now find its head back under water and soon will drown down wards as gravity would love to pull her down to the 13s even 12s from the obvious h&s target.

the only bullish short term stance would be to view the lower high denoted by wave v(i) as a truncated 5th. then there is a possibility that the recent drop could be a A=C move.

I would only begin to entertain this idea if fcx manages to get back and sustain herself above water at 15.50+ a safer bet would be to even buy on the breakout above 16.50

until this happens. my current limit order is in the 12s.



Hey silver, im super new to active trading but have been trying to collect as much info as possible as I'm looking to get hands on pretty soon here.

I did a quick look at FCX seasonal trends. If I'm reading it right It looks like every year since 2012 (except for last year) around mid feb to early march the FCX stock takes a pretty substantial dive, any thoughts on this? Something to be wary of? Still trying to understand trends.

[SilverRex]

well natgas finally got to my initial buying range in the 2.7 area. going to take a stab at this with a small ST play

https://s2.postimg.org/nb8b4ywh5/natgas_02_21_2017.png

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot


What's you're price target? I was thinking conservatively XBI = 66. You're absolutely right that some of the corrections are monster though. I get weak hands with inverse ETFs. It's a little easier to hold their bull counterparts.

My price target is probably 12-14. That's when I will start watching it real close for an exit. One thing is LABD is super risky since Xbi and labu are in a strong uptrend .... but daily and 4h are so OB I couldn't resist. Lets see how it goes

Also nat gas getting pumped

[mr2mike]

RBC DIrect Investing is down again for me.

What trading platforms does everyone recommend moving all my tens of hundreds of dollars to?

I already have a TD Waterhouse US trading account. They seem better, but looking for opinions of features and the amount of timely downtime.

[jacky4566]

Downtime? Almost none with Questrade. And if they are, you can make trades over the phone.

[SilverRex]

gold

last week was looking for a bullish 1-2, 1-2 setup unless gold broke the 200EMA on the 5m which suggest it wants to hunt the 1226-1228 area. well this morning it impulsively bounced off that area. now it is fighting a down trendline resistance. will see if the sub correctional wave 2 is in and readying for a big move.

nak/ndm.to is breaking down from that 5pt bear flag formed last week. I will be looking for a re-entry if it can make a new low (lower than last week's low)

ccj/cco looks like it remains in a correction

fcx also continuing it's breakdown. h&s target remains in the low 13s. my limit order is in the 12s

[SilverRex]

because of what happen last year waiting for the pull back that never came. I am trying to see this sector as optimistic as I could.

the current uber bullish count in black 1-2, 1-2 and a less probable but still possible 1-2, but wave 2 is a bit short in time. Both suggest wave 3 ahead. As long as it remains above 23.89.

flip side is that the entire run off December also looks like a good solid 5 waves up. hence, this drop the past week could be the first leg down.

doesnt matter. we have 3 mini waves off this morning, waiting for it to produce 5 waves, then I will attempt to pickup jnug during the mini wave 2 pull back (similar to how I traded the ccj/cco a few weeks back)

and will put a stop below today's low

let see if gdx can holdon to that reversal hammer into the close

https://s4.postimg.org/uipxko6gd/gdx_02_21_2017.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by J-hop


Hey silver, im super new to active trading but have been trying to collect as much info as possible as I'm looking to get hands on pretty soon here.

I did a quick look at FCX seasonal trends. If I'm reading it right It looks like every year since 2012 (except for last year) around mid feb to early march the FCX stock takes a pretty substantial dive, any thoughts on this? Something to be wary of? Still trying to understand trends.

yes seasonal can have an impact to turns in the market, but I dont solely just look at them. So far it definitely feels like both counts/technical and seasonal are in sync together.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Nak/ndm.to

so far it looks like price is moving in a 5pt bear flag targeting a lower low. I may consider re-enter a position under 1.8 to complete the 5 waves down structure

However I have been told from other EW counters, this thing could correct as low as 0.6-1.15

because it may have completed a major 5 wave top back at 3.40 and so the correction should be a significant one.

if that is the case, then this 5 waves down will only be the first wave A. Will keep my positions small and will only be using the profits I made from the 1.39 - 3.19 ride up.

https://s24.postimg.org/9qa2wp59h/nak_02_17_2017.png

posted this last week suggesting the bear flag targeting a new low.

new low achieved, re-entering half of the position I sold nearly a month ago

[taemo]

re-added my position to ACB this morning (shouldn't have procrastinated last week :banghead: ), hoping for a green report this Thursday

[Manhattan]

Really hope oil isn't making its big move to 60+ right now. Only have a very small position at the moment but I won't chase it.

[Disoblige]

Doh, not that I would have held DGAZ that long due to its leveraged nature, but would have been up over 50k if I held onto my position from the 4s. Interesting to think about, haha.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Doh, not that I would have held DGAZ that long due to its leveraged nature, but would have been up over 50k if I held onto my position from the 4s. Interesting to think about, haha.

I'm up 30% on my position but it's small. Debating if I should let it ride longer or cash out now

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


I'm up 30% on my position but it's small. Debating if I should let it ride longer or cash out now
Never a bad idea to at least take half profits if you believe it has more upside to go.

[SilverRex]

natgas is in no mans land. 2.7 was suppose to be a good first landing, but clearly no buying/support to be found. (2.7 was the 50% fib level) next up is the 61% at 2.44) I may increase my position size a bit if and when 2.44 is hit.

[SilverRex]

is the end of the correction near for ccj? looks like an ending diagonal and some positive divergence showing up. need to confirm with an upside breakout from this channel

https://s15.postimg.org/ilxam6mu3/ccj_02_21_2017.png

[tcon]

Originally posted by taemo
re-added my position to ACB this morning (shouldn't have procrastinated last week :banghead: ), hoping for a green report this Thursday

Don't feel bad - I literally forgot to buy CGC when it was below 3$ - didn't remember until it was above 6$

[ercchry]

Originally posted by tcon


Don't feel bad - I literally forgot to buy CGC when it was below 3$ - didn't remember until it was above 6$

Don't test the product till after market hours :rofl:

[SilverRex]

oil needs to breakout of 55 soon, failure to do so would begin to look like a double top at 55 and price could crash due to the massive record commercial short position. It needs to breakout now and cause a short squeeze so prices are covered higher pushing price even higher.

i think its a good idea to set stops under 51.25 in case this is a topping pattern instead of a consolidation follow by a breakout

[J-hop]

Originally posted by SilverRex
[B]is the end of the correction near for ccj? looks like an ending diagonal and some positive divergence showing up. need to confirm with an upside breakout from this channel



What are your thoughts on CCJ in general. To me CJJ looks like a pretty bad bet unless you are a true daytrader. I'm guessing it will continue a downward trend throughout 2017. Looks like they are one of the worst in the industry with earnings down over 1300% last quarter from the previous years earnings in that same quarter.

Sounds like they are wrapped up with the CRA in a lawsuit as well that could cost them 2.2 billion with a conclusion expected to be end of 2017 at the earliest.

Might be able to catch a (small) turn around if your doing daytrading but I'm guessing the overall trend will be negative.

[KO22]

I like CCJ for day trading, the worst of the worst is over IMO. Earnings were down because last quarter was the bottom of uranium prices. Made some decent returns from trading the stock through the last 7 weeks or so. I'm watching closely to see the next run up and jumping in again

[J-hop]

Originally posted by riander5


Im not playing it based off of all time lows, im playing based off of the momentum indicators mostly. RSI, Stoich RSI, MACD, AO,

Normally bio takes a breather and has been quite predictable over the last little while, if you take a couple 2-4% losses, you can make a 10-20% gain once you pick the right entry. I cant upload pictures at work but will this weekend as to why I chose to enter

I assume you are doing semi-day trading. For RSI what is your number of periods (in the rsi equation) for the frequency of trading your doing?

If I'm understanding it correctly number of periods just essentially applies a smoother to the function. The standard is 14 days but my gut feel is you want to shorten that if you are day trading.

[SilverRex]

gdx 23.89 must hold. so far lightly bounced off this area.

going to try 1 position in Jnug with stops under today's low.

[SilverRex]

1-2, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2

or wishful thinking?

https://s7.postimg.org/qc69y9fwr/gold_02_22_2017.png

[SilverRex]

im hoping its a A=C correction.

so far so good

if gold can close above the 200EMA over 1240 would be even better

https://s9.postimg.org/47q8jhc1b/gdx_02_22_2017.png

[SilverRex]

not much has changed.

I am going to anticipate the double reversal hammer is a A=C correction and wave 3 is about to start. bought Jnug low 10.25 stops under 10.00 if I get taken out and gdx closes below 23.89 then I will begin to favor the blue alt count which could target the 22s

either way I am still expecting any drop to be corrective in nature

https://s12.postimg.org/t1vwkz3gd/gdx_02_22_2017.png

[SilverRex]

gold exploded this morning, new highs. which was important in order to keep the daily cycle going. the next big resistance will be 1259 imo as this is mark another technical confirmation that the gold bull is back.

will see how the day goes. going to move my stop to break even on Jnug

Nak/ndm also re-entered my 2nd position in the 1.88, cost avg 2.17 yesterday. this one is a bit more risky due to the political side depending on how you want to look at it. but right now it is all profit. My original investment has already been withdrawn. No harm in taking a good risk/reward bet

of course the higher gold prices, the better chance Nak/ndm becomes viable.

natgas appears to be turning around. dead cat or bottom is in? would be nice to see it test 2.44 to produce some sort of divergence. for the time being, as long as 2.62 holds. then i would say perhaps. otherwise still looking for one last under cut low low under 2.54

[SilverRex]

interesting natgas bounced off sharply off 2.62, until this breaks, once can only think the bottom is in. the 2.70 area is formidable with a double intersecting trendline

[SilverRex]

as I mentioned earlier, I have fully redeployed my original position on ndm.to and it is all from the profit I made during the 1.39-3+ trade.

so even if EW count suggest it could crash to 0.6-1.15, I wanted to believe the current 5 waves down is wave C bottom. been waiting for this low lower to re-enter

also it has achieved and tested the 61% fib level of the 0.20 to 3.4 run. now waiting for a trendline break to confirm

https://s32.postimg.org/m4sm40n9x/nak_02_23_2017.png

[SilverRex]

stock market sell off looking a bit aggressive here, wondering if it is a start of a good intermediate decline, this would help gold I would think

[riander5]

It's helping LABD so that's swell

[littledan]

fuark missed the boat on LABD! good trade for you guys that got in at ~$11

when is the news on ACB earnings being released? thoughts on how it would affect RTI?

[Disoblige]

Wish the dollar would just dump more. It's really affecting the gold bull miners today.

[J-hop]

Originally posted by littledan
fuark missed the boat on LABD! good trade for you guys that got in at ~$11

when is the news on ACB earnings being released? thoughts on how it would affect RTI?

Yea looks pretty good. I was looking at this stock last night. My gut feel looking at the trends and trying my own Mickey Mouse calculations is by mid next week it will be back down around 11.5. Interested to see how this goes

[SilverRex]

silver is the first to breakout from the multi month down channel line. bullish imo

https://s27.postimg.org/gweili3b7/silver_02_23_2017.png

[Disoblige]

Really not liking the action in 3x gold miners. They're either lagging, or performing pretty poor. And with the back and forth action over the past couple weeks, in the end both bulls and bears lose with the very clear decay.

Something better happen in March or I'm going a different route for my portfolio strategy.

[ercchry]

Burned two months in a row on miners... taking a break right now and strongly considering trading 100x leverage gold futures instead, practice account is looking strong still... well, if I could stop trying my luck on oil :rofl:

Edit:

Wins: 33
Losses: 6

Would of been 5 losses but one I forgot to move the SL, so 5 100% losses, and one 50%... wins are all from 30-300% gains

Still around the $17k mark, but had over $13k in losses on oil/eurusd

Total gold losses were $26k :rofl:

Basically just got impatient and bought a huge block in the middle of the range, missed TP by $0.50 then it dropped and took out SP by $1.50... whoops. Account was well over $30k before I did that

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Really not liking the action in 3x gold miners. They're either lagging, or performing pretty poor. And with the back and forth action over the past couple weeks, in the end both bulls and bears lose with the very clear decay.

Something better happen in March or I'm going a different route for my portfolio strategy.

yes and that has me a bit worried. miners are not performing well relative to gold. I got in on leverage on a good price and will just move my stop to break even and see what happens.

if this is a wave 3 breakout, it needs to move like a wave 3 within a day or two.

otherwise it will roll right into a steeper and longer correction. gdx down to 22 as I suggested as the alt count will be on the table.

[riander5]

Originally posted by ercchry
Burned two months in a row on miners... taking a break right now and strongly considering trading 100x leverage gold futures instead, practice account is looking strong still... well, if I could stop trying my luck on oil :rofl:

Edit:

Wins: 33
Losses: 6

Would of been 5 losses but one I forgot to move the SL, so 5 100% losses, and one 50%... wins are all from 30-300% gains

Still around the $17k mark, but had over $13k in losses on oil/eurusd

Total gold losses were $26k :rofl:

Basically just got impatient and bought a huge block in the middle of the range, missed TP by $0.50 then it dropped and took out SP by $1.50... whoops. Account was well over $30k before I did that

Well at least you are honest and don't try to pretend you can only pick winners.... no one can! Hopefully you learned though and can bounce back on your next trades! GL

[ercchry]

Originally posted by riander5


Well at least you are honest and don't try to pretend you can only pick winners.... no one can! Hopefully you learned though and can bounce back on your next trades! GL

What's the saying? The best only win 6/10 times? :rofl:

Part of the issue is im distracted with actual work now too... which is probably a good thing. Really happy with how things are developing and same sort of personal freedom but without the capital risk this trading nonsense has

[riander5]

Originally posted by ercchry


What's the saying? The best only win 6/10 times? :rofl:

Part of the issue is im distracted with actual work now too... which is probably a good thing. Really happy with how things are developing and same sort of personal freedom but without the capital risk this trading nonsense has

The best win 2 or 3 out of 10, but minimize their losses on the ones they lose is all!

[SilverRex]

the target towards hunting a low in the 12s remains intact.

I suspect we are pretty close if not already made the sub iii down. looking for a small bounce follow by 1 more wave lower towards 12s.

I want to see a similar divergence bottom formed last year. the 1-2, 1-2 setup here with wave 3 being a very powerful move will take fcx up to the 20-24s

https://s11.postimg.org/q9b1u7wr7/fcx_02_24_2017.png

[littledan]

whats going on with the markets today!

[SilverRex]

ccj has backtested the breakout line as well as corrected to the extreme hitting the 61% this morning. so if this one is going to fly now. it needs to start moving from here. otherwise this whole correction since topping out will begin to morph into a longer flat or flag depending on how the lows and high connect.

https://s14.postimg.org/k6wo5xzap/ccj_02_24_2017.png

[KO22]

CCJ is climbing, good time to jump in?

[riander5]

Cameco has some pretty wild swings doesnt it

[SilverRex]

looking at just gold. I can say it is looking good. I like the 200EMA, as back in oct/nov shortly after being a good support, the breakdown lead to a very bearish sell off.

now a similar pattern but in reverse is happening. resistance at first now broken convincingly to the upside.

for the time being, I think it is a buy the dip (even though the last few hours, it does look like gold is a bit corrective and may head down some more)

the big concern is how the miners have reacted. normally this is a huge concern. gold has made two new highs but miners remains stuck in the down channel.

for gold, I think only breaking below 1231 would have me very concern. until then, the momentum is clearly up. but miners I will keep the gdx at 23.89 a must hold territory.

I have my Jnug at breakeven. and will now just watch how it all unfolds.

https://s16.postimg.org/5gy026m6t/gold_200_EMA.png

[Disoblige]

I have no faith in miners right now. As you mentioned, gold hitting highs and it's down because the market is down. It seems like they can only go up when both gold and the market is up.

Very bad news for those holding the bag. I would try to get out ASAP and watch from the sidelines. If this continues, gold could reach 1300+ and JNUG can't even get to $13.

Edit: Also, I don't think you can compare these to previous years whatsoever because after the split last year in August, look at the volume difference. The price is much more attractive to the retail crowd and I think that has a big effect on it. I will be very surprised if it follows a similar trend as last year.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
I have no faith in miners right now. As you mentioned, gold hitting highs and it's down because the market is down. It seems like they can only go up when both gold and the market is up.

Very bad news for those holding the bag. I would try to get out ASAP and watch from the sidelines. If this continues, gold could reach 1300+ and JNUG can't even get to $13.

Edit: Also, I don't think you can compare these to previous years whatsoever because after the split last year in August, look at the volume difference. The price is much more attractive to the retail crowd and I think that has a big effect on it. I will be very surprised if it follows a similar trend as last year.

one explanation is that gold is finally catching up while miners correct, it is possible but not preferred. Miners came off flying out of the gate and had fully retested the election day high and gold still had more room to go.

technically just going to stick to my own plan. until I see gold break under 1231 and gdx under 23.89, I think the next big move is up.

[SilverRex]

to make sense of the weakness in miners. I am also trying look at a different count for gold without destroying the bullish bias.

it is possible gold is in a wave 5 with extension in a terminal wave (I) top. so that best case would be a top near 1300 then a multi month intermediate decline.

a even more immediate decline would be that we are at the very end stages of the wave v of (I) move in orange.

once the rising neckline breaks, we will know.

https://s28.postimg.org/dnostx19p/gold_02_24_2017.png

[Vanish3d]

Just rolled the dice 3 minutes before the bell and bought
JNUG
UGAZ
FCX
CCJ

Let's see what happens monday