Official Short-term Investments Thread

[suntan]

Gee I hope nobody actually bought the instant I said buy.

Take nude photos of your girlfriend/wife and PM them to me!

[Kloubek]

Motley FOOL indeed.

When I started investing, I leaned heavily on the "expert" advice, before I realized they tend to have no idea what is going on. Case in point.

Suntan: You still haven't revealed what I really want to know. Were you heavily invested before the stock tanked, or were you just making suggestions so other people might take the risk for you and then you'd see how it worked out in the end?

[suntan]

Nope no position.

"other people might take the risk for you". LOL WTF. You realize for every seller there's a buyer, right? So there's a whole whack of dipshits out there that bought Valeant at $300.

Do you also buy equities the instant you see a post about it on a forum somewhere?

Literally the only stock I own directly is APR.UN

[zhao]

Originally posted by quick_scar
Motley Fool posting to Yahoo 2 days ago
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-home-capital-group-inc-152009780.html

Feel bad for the people who just got in.


Motley Fool posting to Yahoo toady....
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/home-capital-group-inc-astronomical-140747461.html

Basically proves they are just pulling shit out of their ass to publish a story and try and get ad revenue.

I read a fair bit and discovered as far as everyone is concerned every stock is either great and will go up!!!, or will stay at it's current price for awhile before going up. It's extremely rare to see anyone say a stock is a turd.

I've dug up enough old articles on stocks before they've crashed to know the motley fool HCG bullshit recommendation isn't even that rare.

[zhao]

Originally posted by suntan

Do you also buy equities the instant you see a post about it on a forum somewhere?


Why did you say buy?

[kenny]

Originally posted by zhao
I've dug up enough old articles on stocks before they've crashed to know the motley fool HCG bullshit recommendation isn't even that rare.

It seems like Fool takes articles from any contributor that can put together a few sentences. They don't really have a stance on any one stock but instead are just individual opinions on them.

Another example I've seen are for TD as their articles on it always pop up on my feed. One day its "TD completely undervalued right now, get in!", next day its "TD isn't undervalued at all, it's a loser", followed by "You need to buy TD now!" in the span of 5 days I think :rofl:

Wonder who actually reads that shit.

[SilverRex]

fcx

fcx has completed 5 waves up and should be ready to make a 3 waves correction down to the 12.7-13.1 area this may be the last chance to get on board before a more significant rally begins.

as long as fcx does not close below 12.70 the bullish implication remains very intact

https://s10.postimg.org/f6c77bom1/fcx_04-27-2017.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
my current gdx count with the assumption that gold will move into the same orange and red box from the chart I posted.

this is a clear trendline breakout when gdx pushed above 23.60 and so we either get a back test of this line some where down the road or a worse case a retest or undercut test of the alt A low. either scenario I do not believe we will break the low of 2016

I am keeping my powder dry to take advantage of any incoming weakness

https://s28.postimg.org/anp29fqj1/gdx_04-13-2017.png

well there is the bounce on gdx due to the BoW buying volume the day prior. the question is with the nice reversal candle stick does momentum continue? we shall see, it has already hit the orange box for this drop. I wanted to see price at least reach the red box under 21 before I begin to scale back in with a position

[01RedDX]

.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by zhao
I read a fair bit and discovered as far as everyone is concerned every stock is either great and will go up!!!, or will stay at it's current price for awhile before going up. It's extremely rare to see anyone say a stock is a turd.
Is that any different from what you see from financial analysts at say TD or Scotia? I realize the quality of the data is way better from investment bankers than some joke website like Motley Fool, but at the end of the day, they also have either a "buy" or "hold" rating on probably 80%-90% of stocks they cover...

[Manhattan]

One of my few trusted opinions on Bay street just liquidated HCG. I always hated the business they were in but a lot of smart people liked the company mostly because it generated very good cash flow. The bubbly Cdn housing market just made this company toxic. Will be interesting to see what happens from the sidelines. The government does have a lot of incentive to prop them up til things blow over.


Dear Baskin Wealth Client:
I am sure you have seen recent articles in the press about Home Capital Group (“HCG”), a stock which we have owned for our clients since 2003. HCG operates as an alternative mortgage lender, and is one of the largest such firms in Canada. The company has been continuously profitable since we have owned it, and we had always admired the company’s management.
Earlier this year the Ontario Securities Commission (“OSC”) took action against the company for failing to make timely disclosure of certain events which affected its business. The OSC’s allegations were released a few days ago, and the company stock was badly hurt, falling as much as 20% in one day. As you know, if you have been a client for any length of time, we do not normally sell into a falling market, nor do we succumb to emotion-driven selling or panic. Nonetheless, we have now liquidated our position in HCG. Our clients realized about $18.11 per share. At the time of sale, our position in Home Capital represented about 0.7% of our clients’ total holdings with us.
Our primary reasons for this decision are our new lack of confidence in the integrity and effectiveness of company management, and the possibility of a lack of confidence in the company’s viability on the part of key financial industry players, and importantly, retail purchasers of company issued savings instruments. If the OSC allegations are true, the company was engaged in an active campaign over a period of months to deceive the investing public as to the true state of affairs at the firm. HCG denies these allegations, but to us, they have the ring of possible truth and are consistent with the facts as we understand them. Certainly, if the allegations are true, we were actively misled by management.
There is no doubt that HCG will be faced with serious challenges in the months ahead. These include class-action lawsuits which have already been launched, the replacement of key senior management, and most important, the re-establishment of a solid level of trust with both institutional and retail investors. There is much hard work to be done, and we cannot know how it will all turn out. Under the circumstances, we believe that the best course of action was to liquidate our holdings.
We always tell our clients that before purchasing a security, we form a mental picture of our company name on that firm’s head office. If that picture makes us queasy, we do not proceed with the investment. Sadly, as a result of the new information disclosed in the past few days, we no longer have the necessary comfort level to remain invested in this company.

[kenny]

Be greedy when others are fearful... is that how it goes? Lots of people scared and running away from HCG, so take suntan's advice now and get in! :thumbsup:

[suntan]

Originally posted by zhao


Why did you say buy? Did I say BUY NOW? Especially since I wrote my post after the TSX closed.

Fuck's sake, look at it and make up your own mind. I brought it up because they're under distress and their stock price is getting killed, and perhaps killed a little too much.

Fucking mensa moron.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by suntan
Did I say BUY NOW?
But dude, why did you say buy? :rofl:

[zhao]

Originally posted by suntan
Did I say BUY NOW? Especially since I wrote my post after the TSX closed.

Fuck's sake, look at it and make up your own mind. I brought it up because they're under distress and their stock price is getting killed, and perhaps killed a little too much.

Fucking mensa moron.

Anger much? It's no ones fault but your own.

You said buy. Not buy later, or buy after it falls tomorrow, or buy below $6.

You crap advice could of became good if you bothered to string more than 3 words together, or maybe you just finished reading the motleyfool; we'll never know now now will we?

Now you get labeled as the guy who said buy right before a huge crash.

[kenny]

He also didn't say buy right away :)

In any case, I jumped in and out of HCG today, got in at $6.86 and exited at $7.30. I was too chicken to hold any longer and looks like as usual I am missing out on some gains haha oh well. At least I didn't buy at $17 :rofl:

[Kloubek]

Too bad. It continues to recover nicely. (Not nearly to the same level it was before, obviously, but good for a quick in-out play)

[suntan]

Originally posted by zhao


Anger much? It's no ones fault but your own.

You said buy. Not buy later, or buy after it falls tomorrow, or buy below $6.

You crap advice could of became good if you bothered to string more than 3 words together, or maybe you just finished reading the motleyfool; we'll never know now now will we?

Now you get labeled as the guy who said buy right before a huge crash. "Could of". Fucking awesome.

I've been following HCG way before MF ever mentioned it. Dude, it's the biggest alternative mortgage lender. Do you need the MF to tell you who the biggest bank in Canada is too?

[kenny]

Originally posted by Kloubek
Too bad. It continues to recover nicely. (Not nearly to the same level it was before, obviously, but good for a quick in-out play)

Damn it's flying past $8 :(

[mr2mike]

HCG: Dead cat bounce? :dunno:

[zhao]

Originally posted by suntan
"Could of". Fucking awesome.

I've been following HCG way before MF ever mentioned it. Dude, it's the biggest alternative mortgage lender. Do you need the MF to tell you who the biggest bank in Canada is too?

Yay, grammar. Is your position so weak that you have to resort to grammar corrections and personal attacks rather than just answering the fucking question?

You also forgot to correct "you".

[zhao]

Originally posted by kenny


It seems like Fool takes articles from any contributor that can put together a few sentences. They don't really have a stance on any one stock but instead are just individual opinions on them.

Another example I've seen are for TD as their articles on it always pop up on my feed. One day its "TD completely undervalued right now, get in!", next day its "TD isn't undervalued at all, it's a loser", followed by "You need to buy TD now!" in the span of 5 days I think :rofl:

Wonder who actually reads that shit.

Ya but it's not even limited to MF. my cibc info feed is full of similar shit reports too. Lots of revisions for their valuations/projections/buy/hold/etc based solely on the way the wind is blowing. Fair market value numbers have jumped 30% in a week on one stock with no new news, no numbers changes and barely a stock increase. Tv.to comes to mind for that.

They have reports with recommendations that basically translate into a realtime play by play. Stock is going up so it's "buy", going down is its "sell", despite any good reason why. I joke with a friend that those are the opposite reports as I made good money by doing the opposite of what they said I should do.

[taemo]

Originally posted by kenny
He also didn't say buy right away :)

In any case, I jumped in and out of HCG today, got in at $6.86 and exited at $7.30. I was too chicken to hold any longer and looks like as usual I am missing out on some gains haha oh well. At least I didn't buy at $17 :rofl:

I got in at 7$ flat earlier and was surprised to see it jump at 8$.
I think the overall reaction was over done and below/at 7$ was a good deal if they dont reduce or cut their div.
Didnt put a lot of money either though just in case it went sideways instead

[SilverRex]

ccj

back in late February, I was looking for ccj to bottom but ever since it broke below an important level I exited seeing the alt count in red is in play and was waiting for price to drop below wave (alt a)

surely did technical trading was already revealing what is to come and on the backs of a very negative earnings report. price finally achieved the lower low.

now I am once again will be looking for the wave C bottom to scale back in

https://s11.postimg.org/4iegvzq83/ccj_02-24-2017.png

[SilverRex]

ccj

looks like it is in wave 3 of C down in progress. will start scaling in once wave 3 completes

https://s16.postimg.org/yfq03qhf9/ccj_04-28-2017.png

[KO22]

FCX why you no go up

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KO22
FCX why you no go up

after 5 waves up, it is in correction mode. but the nxt move should be a good one seeing copper price chart looks bullish and could breakout soon

the technical expectation is to see fcx bottom between 12.7-13.1

[Manhattan]

You guys are picking up pennies in front of a steamroller with HCG. They are effectively paying a rate of 20%+ on their new $2b debt. The 12% dividend they're paying on the other side is going to be cut for sure if not slashed completely.

I will say that there's a tiny chance they'll just sell the company at this point but it's just speculation.

[kenny]

^^ haha yep.

There is no way the dividend will continue as they're bleeding $. The run on their deposits is depleting their ability to fund new mortgages, I think they were at like $1.5B on Monday and by today they lost about $1B. I'm guessing they will start packaging out mortgages to sell to banks. With the $2B loan they're at $2.5B. The loan terms are so bad they can't really operate with it so I'm guessing sooner rather than later they'll start packaging out some mortgages to banks?

Although I'll be the first to admit, I don't fully understand how this all works so I could be completely wrong. I jumped in for a quick profit yesterday as I saw an opportunity but it's even riskier now.

[taemo]

Originally posted by Manhattan
You guys are picking up pennies in front of a steamroller with HCG. They are effectively paying a rate of 20%+ on their new $2b debt. The 12% dividend they're paying on the other side is going to be cut for sure if not slashed completely.

I will say that there's a tiny chance they'll just sell the company at this point but it's just speculation.
haha yup, after this morning news i excited while it was 8+ for a nice 15% gain

[ickyflex]

PPL bought VSN in case anyone owns either

[zhao]

Wonder if ppl is going to tank like every other company who has bought another out in that sector recently.

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Took a major position in Veresen today.

:devil:

Boom baby

That call was a 70% gain :thumbsup:

[JudasJimmy]

what's going on with JNUG:US?

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by JudasJimmy
what's going on with JNUG:US?
Both JNUG and JDST 1 for 4 reverse split. And JNUG is down another 7% after the fact. Stay away.

[SilverRex]

gold/gdx

sector moving down as expected. looking for miners to again find 'a' bottom right before FOMC day.

whether this will be 'the' bottom or just a relief rally we will have to wait and see how the bottom is formed.

looking for gdx to dive under 21 before I start my first position.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
my current gdx count with the assumption that gold will move into the same orange and red box from the chart I posted.

this is a clear trendline breakout when gdx pushed above 23.60 and so we either get a back test of this line some where down the road or a worse case a retest or undercut test of the alt A low. either scenario I do not believe we will break the low of 2016

I am keeping my powder dry to take advantage of any incoming weakness

https://s28.postimg.org/anp29fqj1/gdx_04-13-2017.png

very close. waiting for gdx to hit the red box, I want to see price break slightly below the March low for the potential wave 'c' bottom.

[b_t]

god damn JDST has had just an unbelievable run. woulda been nice to get some of that money

oh well, JNUG will do the same pretty soon

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by zhao
Wonder if ppl is going to tank like every other company who has bought another out in that sector recently.

Enbridge didn't do much after spectra deal.

I think infrastructure M&A is not the same as E&P

[zhao]

Originally posted by ickyflex


Enbridge didn't do much after spectra deal.

I think infrastructure M&A is not the same as E&P

Ya it was only down 2 dollars at one point today. The market doesnt apparently hate the deal. That and I think ppl is a pretty solid company.

I'd have bought into that company but I think its somewhat over valued lately.

[max_boost]

Aph (Aphria) anyone? 1000 shares in TFSA and just let it ride.

[zhao]

Originally posted by ickyflex


Enbridge didn't do much after spectra deal.

I think infrastructure M&A is not the same as E&P

Ya it was only down 2 dollars at one point today. The market doesnt apparently hate the deal. That and I think ppl is a pretty solid company.

I'd have bought into that company but I think its somewhat over valued lately.

[rx7_turbo2]

Originally posted by zhao
Ya it was only down 2 dollars at one point today. The market doesnt apparently hate the deal. That and I think ppl is a pretty solid company.

I'd have bought into that company but I think its somewhat over valued lately.
I own a bunch of PPL, sounds like today's deal will allow them to increase their dividend which is nice. Both companies seem to compliment each other well.

[SilverRex]

well FOMC tomorrow. as in the past gold/miners tend to find 'a' bottom leading into or on the same day.

technically I think miners are due anyways, for a bottom or at worse a good bounce.

no change for gdx, my previous charting still stands, I probably wont pull any buy trigger unless gdx drops to 21 or below.

but looking at abx today. it looks pretty obvious a potential A=C flat correction. this may be a good indication this sector is about to rally

gold down and miners up today is the first sign.
silver or namely SLV has been down 11 day straight which you dont see very often.

https://s9.postimg.org/ilwguqj3z/abx_05-02-2017.png

[SilverRex]

im going to add a position here on abx.to on this mini pull back as I believe we just have a micro 5 waves up.

it is entirely possible this sector has or can bottom ahead of tomorrow's FOMC. I will have to watch this and gdx closely to see which will offer me a better entry.

[zhao]

I just bought tv.to. It's a zinc mining (lead and silver too) company about to cross over and might have a decent breakout. Zinc prices have also been on the rise recently.

this will be a quick in and out on my end.

[bspot]

If these numbers are confirmed by the EAI tomorrow, oil just pulled a huge headfake today:

Crude -4.16M

Gasoline -1.93M

Distillates -0.44M

Cushin -0.22M

[zhao]

I think you're likely correct on the headfake. Crude is up over 48 dollars already in asian markets right now.

[SilverRex]

silver

havent posted on this for a while, after like what 12 straight down days? with RSI extremely oversold. expecting a good rally coming up. if not even a bottom as it has moved below wave (a) which has now set up nicely for an ABC flat correction or running flat correction. There is also the rising multi year trendline underneath so we will see when it decides to turn. FOMC today may very well be the launch pad.

first sign would be a swing low by taking out the previous day high above 17

https://s24.postimg.org/a86z7f4b9/silver_05-03-2017.png

[SilverRex]

gold down and miners slightly up. (another day of positive divergence)

kinross beat estimate, leading the charge

[SilverRex]

get ready for some volatility at noon from the FOMC annoucement

[civicHB]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


Boom baby

That call was a 70% gain :thumbsup:

I was watching Veresen ever since you mentioned it, but didnt buy in. Great pick!!

[SilverRex]

silver has tagged the rising line and gold despite an initial jump on FOMC has given everything back and then some.

gold on target towards the 1200-1220 region which remains on target

gdx should now be on wave 3 of 5 of C down and finally should be able to break March low under 21, looking for the real bottom to be between 20-21

oil finally broke under 47 which is expected after technically being damaged over a week ago

[SilverRex]

added back some other silver play during this pull back.

for leverage I will only feel comfortable with gdx under 21 and may only play Nugt as it is outperforming jnug. its best to stay away jnug

yesterday gld also made the BoW list, so with a initial gap down, I think this sector is poise for at least a good bounce heading into the french election results on may 7th

[ickyflex]

What's the trend on oil go forward since it's technically weak

[Magic-8-Ball]

Originally posted by SilverRex
fcx

fcx has completed 5 waves up and should be ready to make a 3 waves correction down to the 12.7-13.1 area this may be the last chance to get on board before a more significant rally begins.

as long as fcx does not close below 12.70 the bullish implication remains very intact

https://s10.postimg.org/f6c77bom1/fcx_04-27-2017.png

Quite the last couple days for FCX. Any thoughts on where it is headed now? Seems like concerns on demand from China, coupled with copper going down and perhaps FMOC... anyhow, Definitely well below the 12.70 you mentioned a few days back...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball


Quite the last couple days for FCX. Any thoughts on where it is headed now? Seems like concerns on demand from China, coupled with copper going down and perhaps FMOC... anyhow, Definitely well below the 12.70 you mentioned a few days back...

good that you asked.

all I can say is, big picture remains solid, 1-2, 1-2, but these short term counts arnt easy to spot.

during this down move from the 16s, what started out a very clean 5 waves down turned out not quite finished. every rally became a larger degree wave 4 which resulted in another micro 5 wave down.

but looking back, I was expecting price to break below 11.92 (which it didnt quite achieve - until now)

the key support at this time is 11.51 and so far is holding. might give it a day or two to see how it looks. all I can say is, anything under 12 is just a great buying area for the long haul.

[zhao]

What a stressful day in the market today lol.

I dumped cve today and went in to tv when it bottomed around 1.09 at lunch time. Tv 'should' sit around 1.16 at current zinc prices imo and zinc should rebound soon meaning tv will likely sit higher soon. I would have gone heavier into tv but I have a fair bit of unsettled funds sitting in limbo from jumping in and pulling out of tv at 1.20 the other day right before it fell.

If things go well with zinc I'll probably be rebuying cve, as I still say it's a good 6 month plus gamble. Oil at 46 makes it suck but everyone keeps claiming 55-60 for oil by 2018

[SilverRex]

ccj

after accj completed wave 3 of C down. we got our wave 4 bounce and we are very close to wave 5 of C down looking for price under 9.33 and I may begin to scale into a position

https://s4.postimg.org/p7x8n3l3h/ccj_05-05-2017.png

[SilverRex]

fcx

as I have said, what was originally counted as a wave (4) in a 3 waves ABC turned into a 5 point flag abcde instead.

on first glance it appears we only have 3 waves down which mean we need to see one more wave lower still. but since this should really be wave V of C down, it can truncate and end

so we will see for the next few days how this plays out.

first sign we need to see price reclaim 12.50, with ultimate breakout zone over 14.00

I have a couple of positions between 12-13s and not going to do much here. I may be tempted to add one more if price does give us that lower low under 11

https://s10.postimg.org/907o7d3jd/fcx_05-05-2017.png

[SilverRex]

gdx

well if you look at the last chart on gdx, I was expecting gdx to break below wave (A) and find a bottom some where in the 20-21 area. we are now here. the bottom could be in at any day or moment. maybe on the heels of the NFP report but I think we should know this no more than a week at worse.

looking for a 5th wave down to perhaps fill the gap that was left in 2016.

technically we have broken below wave (A) which fulfills the ABC flat correction requirement, it will be hard to think of any short term bounce being the take off without believing it is only a counter trend rally follow by lower lows. I am prepare to enter nugt if price can fill the gap and get into the range of 20.3-20.5

if gdx did bottom yesterday, then it needs to find its way back above 21.75 follow by a breakout above 22.28

https://s21.postimg.org/7780y9idj/gdx_05-05-2017.png

[SilverRex]

gpl

havent posted much on this ever since it technical broke down below the 1.5 area (like many other charting) a recount was needed. instead of beginning a new wave when price slightly broke a new 52 week high. the entire move off since May 2016 has now been an extremely lengthy ABC flat.

I made some good coin buying at the bottom of wave (A) late last year and fortunately was able to take a good chunk profit off the table when price was testing 2.2 as a result my cost average after getting back in is under wave (A) as I was slowly buying back in small increments between the 1.2-1.8 area

(lesson moment - it is always good to take profit off the table when you are in a position to do so. things can change on a dime)

I did increase my position size recently and now may light up my position on the next major bounce. I wont completely exit as price has fallen so much that there is actually more upside potential then downside risk. but I do intend to set myself up for a chance to buy back between the 0.8-1.00 region

https://s18.postimg.org/z97r4ht1l/gpl_05-05-2017.png

[zhao]

^ thx for posting your charts and explainations btw. Very interesting reads.

As for my current pick tv.to is up to 1.16 from a low of 1.08 yesterday (I bought at 1.095) it'll likely go a bit higher as zinc recovered over night and this morning. At current zinc prices I'd say 1.17-1.2 is realistic for this stock but today and maybe Monday are going to be the last days we see action unless zinc prices do something additional.

[degeneratetrader]

does anyone here know if PDT rule applies to us canadians? and if so, does it apply to futures?

[SilverRex]

sil.v

took a position last week at 1.58 as price backtest the previous top at 1.50 and hitting the 61% retracement level. although it does looks like it needs 1 more wave lower. will see if price can get back above 1.92 to solidify the bottom

https://s23.postimg.org/yrdgx9unf/sil_05-05-2017.png

[bspot]

BTE looks to be breaking out:

https://invst.ly/3wz1d

[SilverRex]

gdx

still waiting for the final wave v of 5 drop down to the 20-20.50 area.

with RSI divergence and miners holding extremely well with gold down 8 dollars I suspect any sudden drop below 21 would trigger buying.

however, cant rule out the bottom may have been struck when price hit 20.89 since it fulfilled the wave (c) requirement by dropping below wave (a).

with that said, price will need to make a wave 3 pop and take out 21.75 follow by 22.28 to confirm new cycle has begun

https://s11.postimg.org/mismsoor7/gdx_05-09-2017.png

[SilverRex]

nak

it has been a couple of weeks since I last posted on nak. Price has pretty much double off the low so far and the green bullish 1-2, 1-2 count remains intact. the only change was that wave ii took a bit longer.

to remain bullish, price needs to break above this rising channel and remain above it. the moment prior wave (i) and wave i tops are broken to the downside then the alt bearish count will come alive.

these two critical support are now 1.59 and 1.84

the 1.99 area is also critical resistance and is the 38% retracement resistance from the 3.44 to 1.09 drop, so closing above it would be significant and could attract shorts if price can break thru here.

https://s2.postimg.org/f8i4wyyg9/nak_05-10-2017.png

[SilverRex]

gdx has cleared the first hurdle above 21.75, if it can clear the final hurdle above 22.28 we may have ourselves a bottom at 20.89

[cloud7]

It's been a nice run up for Kinross. I am going to safe route and take some profit off the table and then see what happens.

[BavarianBeast]

Solid progress on PPY, finally.

To $14 we go :devil:

[Disoblige]

TSLA & PPY :thumbsup:

Targeting $350 for TSLA, strong support at $320s.

[max_boost]

got ripped on APH. bought at 6.73 and now 5.54 one week later lol some things never change haha

[zhao]

Ppy definitely ftw today. However, I'm unsure if this is the start of it's climb upwards that I've been banking on; I was pretty sure it would rocket up today but I think we may see a dip soon and then it start going consistently up in summer. I'm not selling, more thinking about possibly buying more. 14 seems optimistic too, I'm hoping for 9ish personally. 14 would be awesome though

Tv is up 5% too from when I bought so I'm pretty happy with that stock too. Zinc has gone up nicely and the stock is below what it should be trading at now. I'm figuring it's going to do nothing impressive until next week when they release their quarterly report, and then think it may rocket up as well.

[zhao]

Originally posted by max_boost
got ripped on APH. bought at 6.73 and now 5.54 one week later lol some things never change haha


You continually lose money at stocks?

I'd say if you're buying randomly you probably shouldn't be buying stocks, and might want to just dump your money into a mutual fund. Now first off, i'm amateur hour for trading (I have some basic knowledge from taking finance + I had a financial planner prof and a securities prof that both told good stories for advice/trading strategies that I still remember 20 years later), and there is a lot of different methods I know work for people to pick stocks. For example: I'm fascinated by our highly technical trader in this thread, and he's clearly making some solid picks with his strategy too.

I'm doing ok with my investments because i'm not picking stocks on the whim of the day. I'm sticking to watching 10-20 companies, and I research the shit out of the company and their market, and only go in for what I think are no brainers.

Some of my picks in the last 2 months were bbd.b at 2.01, rsi at 6.14, acq at 21ish, ftg at 3.68 (missed that boat :( ), hbc at 10.10, tv at 1.09, ppy at 5.19, cve at 14.30 (misjudged that bottom hard, but i'm confident that pick will hit decent numbers within a year).

All those seemed like no brainers to me for a lot of reasons, but a major reason for all of them was I thought almost every single one was undervalued, and the worst likely scenario was I break even eventually. I'm not buying crap on the way up trying to ride the train. The other significant factor was everything I bought was bought on a downturn, often on a piece of bullshit news that doesn't really matter that people will forget about within a week (like hbc's daughter company data leak).

I try to understand what makes a stock move too. some are easy, like TV, which pretty much just follows the peaks and valleys of zinc. Some I honestly dont have a clue wtf is causing it to be volatile.

What also works for me is in addition to evaluating a company's worth, I'm viewing stock trading as primarily a psychological experience. People trade on fear: omg what if it keeps going down! omg what if it goes up and I miss out! Making decisions based on that is how people lose the most money IMO, but using that to guess what the market will do can help to make money (This is definitely working with my mining stock tv.to. Lots of panic anytime zinc goes up or down a decent chunk. I also use this to decide when to exit out of a stock). I'll also follow stuff like EODDATA not because I believe in it, but because other people believe in it, and since so many people do, that makes it true IMO.

One other thing. IMO investing can be like a pyramid scheme. It needs fresh people jumping on board to drive it's price up, so if the little old lady at the supermarket tells you to buy gold, she is the last fucking person in the telephone chain of information, so when the last person on the planet just heard about this 'great new guaranteed investment that's making everyone rich'..... well, you better sell it, because it's about to crash lol.

Now some may say everything I've said is crap because well, it is lol, or its the opposite of what they do, but IMO, it doesn't matter, because so far it's worked pretty good for me... The important thing is find something that works for you and stick to that, or if nothing works, pay someone else to do it for you. If you're buying stuff randomly, you might as well just go to the casino and bet that money on black. I'll also say this.... if I was 20 years older, or dealing with 20x more money, I wouldn't be doing anything close to what i'm doing now. i'd probably just buy a bunch of mutual funds or dividend stocks :D



As for APH, I haven't spent long enough researching marijuana anything to actually want to buy it, but APH falling to 5.55 has peaked my interest to start looking in to it. If I were you I'd be looking long and hard at potentially buying a lot more of it if it falls further. My quick glance at it says anything close to $5 seems like a deal, and I'm not seeing any glaring reason why it wont go back to around what you paid for it.

[SilverRex]

gdx and gdxj combined for -303m yesterday on the SoS list. miners could possibly open up and end the day in red.

[SilverRex]

oil

ever since oil broke below 49.55 it was technically damaged and I expected price to eventually take out the triple bottom at 47. so far price has found support in the 44 area due to the multiple support it had formed in the past. will this hold?

for the short term, price is nearly at the previous neckline break and so price 'should' find very stiff resistance between the 48.5-49.1 area. right now oil is bearish plain and simple. until it can reclose above the 50 and 200 EMA 50+ I would expect any bounce to be just a counter rally.

if anyone is bullish, than watch 47 carefully. if price takes out 47 to the downside before it can reclose above 50.00 that is another bearish sign or confirmation oil is about to make another shoot downwards towards 44.00

https://s24.postimg.org/e0ph99zid/oil_05-11-2017.png

[Vanish3d]

What is the deal with DRYS?
pre-market on investing.com shows it's up 600%
My bank shows it closed at 6.72 yesterday (instead of ~0.96
I don't see any notes about a reverse split, nor any news to cause a massive pop

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
What is the deal with DRYS?
pre-market on investing.com shows it's up 600%
My bank shows it closed at 6.72 yesterday (instead of ~0.96
I don't see any notes about a reverse split, nor any news to cause a massive pop

its reverse split. it appears they continue to reverse split when price fall below 1.00 in order to meet certain listing for fund investing requirements.

I have some beer money in it and will just ignore the stock.

[SilverRex]

fcx

looks like it is flagging in the 11s area (wave 4?) waiting for one more lower low to complete the 5 waves unless price can close above 12.50

ccj

looks like extended wave 4 as well. also looking for that one more lower low under 9.34 before I open my first position

oil

watch 47, if this breaks. bearish notion remains. over all oil is weak and even if it can close above 50 I will only view it as being back to neutral.

gold

to gain bullish momentum and perhaps seal the bottom on this daily cycle, gold needs to produce a swing low by taking out 1228 to the upside until such a time it too remains weak as it seeks out a bottom

gdx

miners has been outperforming gold imo and with a good 5 waves up, it is hard to argue it may just put in a higher low while gold can make a lower low. I am still waiting for the perfect bottom in the 20.3-20.5 area. that may or may not come.

current count feels like bottom is in and we are either in wave 3 of (1) or 5 of (1). gdx is on the verge of breaking above 22.28 a penny away

[SilverRex]

silver

silver has produced a swing low (while gold hasnt) I think we are extremely close to a bottom here. worse case silver may have 1 more lower low and imo silver under 16 is a screaming buy

[SilverRex]

with gdx punching thru 22.28 I have to just take it what I see and believe the bottom is in a 20.89

with this trying to count 5 waves up. so either we are in wave 3 of (i) or wave 5 of (i) both bullish at the moment.

since I have not seen any negative divergence on RSI or MACD, I am expecting any correction to be mild (wave 4) follow by another thrust upwards to complete 5 waves.

and depending on what gold does as it still has not able to break above 1228 to confirm a swing low which would bring in more technical buying from cycle counters

if gold still has more weakness coming and isnt quite ready to move in a new cycle, then miners to me can be counted 5 waves with the current top being an extended 5th wave off the low at 21.23

then once is to expect price to hunt or fill the gap in the 21.50-60 area then begin the next impulse move up

https://s17.postimg.org/nz9iyucqn/gdx_05-11-2017_b.png

[JudasJimmy]

Originally posted by max_boost
got ripped on APH. bought at 6.73 and now 5.54 one week later lol some things never change haha
I bought some yesterday after you complained, cashed out for a cool %10 today. It was a good tip. thanks...

[SilverRex]

kgc

i cant recall if I mentioned this, but kgc had a Ro4 breakout on monday and ever since it held above it, price is now beginning to move impulsively to the upside and now it is trying to breakout from the final inverse h&s neckline which if confirmed can target the 2016 high

one driver for the strong showing in kgc (kinross gold) is the increase weighting on gdxj ever since the fund got an asset rebalancing couple that with a surprise upside earnings. you now have ever reason to lean heavily into this stock

https://s8.postimg.org/f9crojmn9/kgc_05-12-2017.png

[SilverRex]

gdx

awhile back was expecting gdx_to hit the red box with price falling under wave A below 21.

it dipped to 20.89 and that is all she wrote. wasnt able to get my ideal entry in the 20.3-20.5 area but it did technically achieve the requirement for this bottom. Sure I should have at least open 1 leverage position when price was under 21. then again I have enough invested, I rather stick to my own game plan.


now that price moved strongly above the 21.75 and 22.28 area, it does appear a new daily cycle has emerged.

so as long as 21.75 holds, I think price should imo find its way back to retesting the a high above 25.

The June 19 turn date from Armstrong could also signal a potential top in mid to late June (just like 2016) so I want to anticipate a turn here also for a wave 1 of 3 top or a bearish alt C top._how we play this I guess we will just have to wait and see

https://s18.postimg.org/lk4i8zvux/gdx_05-12-2017.png

[SilverRex]

oil

ever since oil rallied off the low of 44, price has made quite a rebound. the 47 area was suppose to become resistance, and the previous rising neckline in the 48s as well. however price has closed above this as well as the 200EMA on the daily which to me now suggest the entire drop from 55 to 44 remains in a corrective pattern.

so in short, the entire move from 26 to 55 is wave (A), the move from 55 to 44 could possibly be wave (B) and we still have wave (C) producing new highs.

now was the 44 area wave (B) bottom? we will have to see how oil corrects.

we have 5 waves up and potentially oil is ready to correct back down to the 46-47 area. I'll say wave 2 has started only if price can close below 48.

similarly last week I mention the importance of 47, that breaking it would imply bearish continuation, the fact that it did not break this and made another wave higher forming a completed 5 wave structure off the low, we can now begin to entertain the possibility the trend in oil could be changing. thats how the market worse, things change. what ever is coming is showing up technically. further Opec cut? war? who knows. big money will first react and reflects it in the price.

if 48 does not get broken to the downside, oil can certainly form an extended 5th wave up higher. no point in chasing but waiting for the correction.

https://s23.postimg.org/ef8zz1cm3/oil_05-15-2017.png

[SilverRex]

gdx

looking at the macro count, so far we have 3 waves up. initial drop could be wave (iv) but very possibly still in a correction with one more lower low down to the low 22s

key is to see gdx make a higher high to complete 5 waves to maintain bullish momentum.

if gdx fails to make a higher high and breaks 21.75 support, this would be bearish imo

https://s29.postimg.org/dyhv03a07/gdx_05-16-2017.png

[SilverRex]

fcx

while count wise, still waiting for that lower low under 11.43 to complete the final 5th wave.

I did notice we had an ending diagonal 5 waves down to 11.50 which potentially could mark the low as a truncated ending diagonal 5th wave.

if so, then we need to see fcx take out 12 follow by 12.50 as confirmation.

looking at the move this morning, it appears we have a 1-2, 1-2 setup, so this scenario is possible

https://s18.postimg.org/ddgp4sac9/fcx_1-2_1-2.png

[SilverRex]

gold

ever since gold was able to produce a swing low by closing and breaking above 1228, it has drawn in plenty of technical buying. the invert h&s pattern also suggest a price target in the area of 1258-1260.

gold is also about to retest the upper channel of the declining wedge and the previous breakdown neckline which should act as resistance.

this will mark a very good area for a short term top in gold imo.

so gold bottomed at 1214 and we are in wave 1 of 3 which is suppose to be the most powerful leg up? I certainly can only hope. but both cycles and time wise suggest price still needs to push lower for another 1-2 months.

this rise up in gold could also just be a counter wave (b) with (c) yet to come. If so, then be prepare for an even better buying opportunity to come.

in the mean time, if 1214 is actually the ICL (intermediate cycle low and yearly low) then we will watch for confirmation.

https://s1.postimg.org/q6ifnmmlr/gold_05-17-2017.png

[SilverRex]

gdx

gdx has made a higher high and now has 5 waves up. whether it extends or not doesnt matter. miners are bullish.

https://s22.postimg.org/i3v3yqhkx/gdx_05-17-2017.png

[SilverRex]

ccj

still waiting for that wave v of (c) under 9.34 to complete the bottom.

turns out wave iv was a 5pt abcde bear rising wedge bear flag rather than an 3 waves ABC. either way bearish for a lower low

https://s10.postimg.org/l8wbyco49/ccj_05-17-2017.png

[b_t]

JNUG green today when hardly anything else was.

miners technical side looked good as per SilverRex's stuff here, then add the Trump news in. gold up 2% in one day is craziness. I expect a strong end to the week for JNUG :thumbsup:

[KO22]

Does FCX ever stop bleeding

[bspot]

Originally posted by KO22
Does FCX ever stop bleeding

Bailing on that before I was in the red is one of the best decisions I made this year.. haha.

I've been playing NUGT and DUST at the tops and bottoms of this channel and it's worked out alright.

https://invst.ly/3z9n8

I'm also in LABU, since the 45's, hoping yesterday was a shakeout and all my gainzzz aren't gone.

[KO22]

Hello darkness my old friend

[Kloubek]

Wow to the last couple of days. Rare to see red virtually across my entire portfolio.

[b_t]

hah miners did well yesterday so I thought they'd be fine today, and keep going up while everything else went down... nope :rofl:

I would have sold JNUG yesterday at $21 if I wasn't in a meeting. I might be too busy to actually play this stock properly because it needs babysat

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by b_t
hah miners did well yesterday so I thought they'd be fine today, and keep going up while everything else went down... nope :rofl:

I would have sold JNUG yesterday at $21 if I wasn't in a meeting. I might be too busy to actually play this stock properly because it needs babysat

was expecting gold to top around 1258-1260 which in turn capped miners. also miners was in the final 5th wave up, it was ready to roll over for a wave 2 correction.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KO22
Does FCX ever stop bleeding

been expecting a break below 11.43 for the final wave v of C also. got a bit excited 2 days ago but price never was able to confirm reversal and take out 12.00

but today
it has none the less produced a very interesting reversal candle on the 1 hour. the same confirmation still requires price to break above 12 then I would say the bottom most likely being in.

[Marsh]

How do you guys have so much time to follow markets during the day lol. Your work must be slow...