Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bspot]

Well that undid a lot of yesterday's damage. Out of DUST. I find my success booking profit is way higher getting in and out closer to the trend lines.

[SilverRex]

gold

so gold did produce a short term top around the 1258-1260 and met its inverted head and shoulder price target.

with price moving down initially to 1244 in a 3 wave fashion, I am going to say this is wave (a) of the correction.

over all, I am leaning towards gold completing 5 waves up and now moving into wave 2 correction targeting some where in the 1230s since the action today appears corrective so any bounce should be short lived.

the only alt count I have would be the orange count where as we are still in an extended wave iii of (i) up, if this is the case price would make another new high and what this simply means that the next buy area will be shifted from the 1230s up into the 1240s-1250s

not going to post miners gdx since it is in a similar pattern since the last chart. 5 waves up and wave 2 correction in progress


https://s24.postimg.org/xgyapgnlh/gold_05-19-2017.png

[SilverRex]

fcx

with copper price rebounding today. fcx has got some buying momentum going. while the reversal candle stick wasnt quite as bullish as I had hoped but it can still be a reversal bottom (similar to the bottom on wave iii at 11.91 on March 27

count wise we have completed all necessary count. now we just wait for confirmation for the first 5 waves up. so far we have 3 waves up and 11.45 must hold and give us the 5th wave up to begin a new intermediate degree rally.

then I would like price to close above 12.00 for the next sign

https://s11.postimg.org/4ix66b8vn/fcx_05-19-2017.png

[SilverRex]

oil

ever since oil broke above 49, I had a suspicion the reversal at 44 may be our yearly and intermediate cycle low. (my own personal target was hoping to see price under 40)

and oil not only has some positive data backing up the recent move but technically it is also making a 5th wave up which is bullish

initially from my last count I mention the possibility of oil extending its move higher as long as price does not break 48. and true to it, oil never closed below 48. and I cant suggest the double bottom at 48 is wave 2 either since it never even corrected 38%. a typical wave 2 correction should normally correct between 38-61% of the previous rally.

with an obvious rising channel, 5th wave up in sequence it appears everything is lining up to move up together. stocks may have bottom or with a bit lower to go) with a falling USD (if one recalls the last time, it was continuously trying to break down from a neckline targeting 95, and so far that is on track.

only alt count is a even more uber bullish count with price now in wave iii of (iii) of (I) up. if this is so, then price should not break below 49.6, as soon as price closes below the 49.50 area about, I think wave 2 correction would have started.

https://s8.postimg.org/6ayv2gdpx/oil_05-19-2017.png

[SilverRex]

gold vs dollar

just food for thought. when gold was in what appears to be a flag pattern at the time, turned out into some sort of consolidation which broke down and resulted in a pretty significant decline.

looking at the dollar, it is also in a similar consolidation follow by a break down recently, the h&s top suggest target down tot he 94 area.

also keep in mind, gold eventually found a bottom by backtesting the previous break out neckline

so will the dollar do the same thing? the 94 area looks like the perfect area to bottom

https://s2.postimg.org/4bt5xq4qh/gold_vs_USD.png

[zhao]

i sold ppy.to today at 5.56 after it gained 8% for a pretty tidy profit. i figured we'll see a end of day dip (long weekend people sell off, and we did see a bit of a down at end of the day), and after it skyrocketing so much today i'm expecting a possible drop next week. maybe not tuesday, but hopefully at some point so i can re-enter it. I cashed out all my other investments in my rrsp account today too for a nice profit so i'm ready to jump back in to ppy or cve big next week (preferably ppy, but whichever one dips). I did the math and I am sitting at a 28% gain for the last 60 days for my RRSP.

I did a quick in and out of HBC as well this week when it dipped just below $10 and sold at 10.12. I really dont like that stock's outlook, but I like the company and it's been good to me this year for profit because they've had so much shitty news that really doesn't matter. It seems to find a bottom as soon as it dips below $10, and slowly climbs back up. I can see it going back to $11 the next time they have half decent news, but i'm not holding my breath for any higher than that. retail is scary shit.



Tv.to had a nice 11% gain today too, but that stock I'm holding. Finally their big deal is done, shareholders voted it in (99% voted for it) and zinc prices rallied back to a decent price, meaning this stock should be back to trading at prices that are pretty predictable, and it is very possible this is the start of it's climb upwards.

I'll consider selling it if it breaks 1.20, but only if zinc prices remain in the 1.15-1.17s, and only so I can re-enter it when it dips. I see a lot of potential for this stock, and it's currently my favourite. I have most of my TFSA tied up in it right now.


What else i'm watching that i'm ready to jump on. bbd.b if it drops into the 2.00-2.05 range. ACQ at 20 is very tempting, but I feel dipping below 20 is a big mental barrier to some. RSI if it dips under 6.2 and CHR if it dips into the 7.20s (safe stocks with good dividends that fluctuate a few % here and there). FTG if it falls below 3.80 i'd view as a safe bet as well (this one will likely get close to $5 again this year, but I hate the volume it trades at).


What i'm watching and am somewhat interested in is APH and WEED. APH at 5.68 is peaking my interest and is probably due for another upward swing.

[SilverRex]

oil

oil has produced 5 waves up. possible one more microwave higher than we should get a 3 wave correction back down to 50-48 area for retest

fcx

also in a similar pattern. also 5 waves up off the low, possible bottom in place at 11.07

[zhao]

I held tv today. I dont think it'll go up again tomorrow, but I'm sticking to my plan to hold this until it at least gets to 1.25+. I'm not holding my breath its going to do better than 1.2x for june, maybe july, but I figure it may start going up after that as zinc stockpiles continue to dwindle. china continues to clamp down on its own zinc mining, as well as closures of a handful of mines without new ones replacing them is seeing a rapid reduction of zinc supply. I'm guessing that should really start affecting the price around sept + at the rate things are going.

Some analysts are predicting this stock could hit $3, but i doubt that. i'm thinking the low estimates of 1.70 are probably more realistic.


As for stocks i'm looking to buy, i'm currently watching cve, ppy, chr, aph, and acq on the tsx. Target prices that'll make me jump on them are as follows, in order of what i want to buy.

ppy @ 5.40ish
cve @ 12.6x
aph @ 5.5x
acq <19.50 (really unsure of this stock in the short term. my view is it could do anything right now, but if i buy under 19.50 i should be able to exit this stock over that price without too much worry)
chr @ 7.2x

Today the only one that hit my market was CHR.to after it dropped down to 7.25 (bought it at that). I figure its a pretty safe bet at that, as imo this stock is worth $8 to me. Solid sustainable 6.5% dividend at the price I bought it at means i wont mind holding this if it doesn't go up for awhile.

So for the rest of the week i'll be looking at entering in to one of the other 4... hopefully PPY again.

[max_boost]

I think I need to buy some more aph. I got some at 6.73 :nut:

[SilverRex]

gdx

after a near perfect 5 waves up off the low of 20.89, the wave 2 correction is now in wave (c). it technically made a lower low under wave (a) so it can end here if that is all she wrote.

but looking at gold, it could still use one more wave to break the low under 1245 to fulfill the same pattern.

looking for gdx to find a bottom between the 22-22.5 area

https://s21.postimg.org/8bjr870nr/gdx_05-24-2017.png

[SilverRex]

oil

after another micro wave higher, I think oil has completed 5 waves and should be more than ready to roll over to back test the 47-49 area before a even more powerful move up

and yes there is an alt count which is even more bullish seeing oil could also be in a wave 3 move, if this is the count, then oil will either suddenly just punch upward and breakout of this rising channel or it can produce a mild correction without breaking below 50

https://s22.postimg.org/ub3j4vh8h/oil_05-24-2017.png

[jacky4566]

What is everyone thoughts on the old ditch weeds?

ACB looks to be in a bit of a flat now and WEED is at an 8.0 low.

When are we expecting the next big announcement for legalization? Every little bit of news seems to send these guys flying on speculation.

I might grab some ACB for beer money.

[meeiu]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil

after another micro wave higher, I think oil has completed 5 waves and should be more than ready to roll over to back test the 47-49 area before a even more powerful move up

and yes there is an alt count which is even more bullish seeing oil could also be in a wave 3 move, if this is the count, then oil will either suddenly just punch upward and breakout of this rising channel or it can produce a mild correction without breaking below 50

https://s22.postimg.org/ub3j4vh8h/oil_05-24-2017.png

OPEC news tonight will most likely play a significant role in determining the path of oil.:clap:

[ickyflex]

TSX oil sucks

[SilverRex]

fcx

after fcx achieve 5 waves off the low at 11.07, i am going to view the bottom being in and fcx like oil, gdx, (coincident?) are all looking for their abc wave 2 correction.

ideally I want to see fcx hit the 11.50 area. but a bullish alt count suggest price can certainly already put in an abc flat and could at any moment thrust upwards and begin wave 3

having price break above 12.00 slightly was very encouraging. now we need a follow thru

https://s24.postimg.org/kb6w18gmt/fcx_05-24-2017.png

[SilverRex]

gdx/gdxj

5 waves off the low, certainly looks like wave (c) of 2 is in

[bspot]

I'm so curious what is going to happen to crude. I sort of expect a surprise dump. I don't think anyone will be surprised by the cuts getting extended, so upside seems limited.

On the other hand, we've had pretty steady draws.

[zhao]

Originally posted by jacky4566
What is everyone thoughts on the old ditch weeds?

ACB looks to be in a bit of a flat now and WEED is at an 8.0 low.

When are we expecting the next big announcement for legalization? Every little bit of news seems to send these guys flying on speculation.

I might grab some ACB for beer money.

Here is my views:

Annual revenue is shit, P/E is shit, profit is shit, everything is shit about these companies in relation to what their stock prices are, except for future growth potential. 'They' claim when weed is legal it is going to be a 100 billion dollar industry in Canada. Currently all the dope companies combined are sitting at what, around 5 (give or take a lot depending on the hype of the day) billion market cap?

My thoughts are some of these companies will grow and take over a significant portion of the market share, and some will do not much of anything. acb, weed, and aph will probably all go places though. IMO they're not going to go up a ton either. I'd say we're talking maybe 30% for a year from now. the 100-200% train left the station long ago and isn't likely to come back.


Weed/canopy growth is the biggest. They have the biggest sq footage space currently, but its not being utilized, and they're the most secretive with future production numbers once legalization happens (they're also using a old chocolate factory). They are the closet to making profit of the 3. They have the best revenue right now. blah blah blah, basically right now this minute they look better..... but these aren't 100 year old companies, so that means shit IMO. Who knows if that will hold true in a year, because things are changing fast and thats why these companies have market caps of 1 billionish while only doing 20-40 million in revenue lol.

Aurora is Albertan. They're building a massive green house at the edmonton airport, which is federal. Cities or provinces can't fuck with that lease from my understanding. Target of 100000kg of dope out of this place (they previously said 70000kg), with possible plans for 5000kg more out of another acquisition. That translates into about 900 million a year in product at $9ish a gram. This greenhouse should be completed septish. Also they're hte ones that are on the hype train for how many different seeds they are mucking with. THey also have some ties to the american market through Colorado from what I remember, so they shouldn't be figuring shit out as they go. aurora is still on venture though, and only one analyst on the reuters report has bothered to look at them.



Aphria is out of Ontario. THey plan to have a bigger greenhouse, but their projected numbers are actually worse than aurora. Aphria has a greenhouse active that is capable of 18000kg right now, or about 160 million worth. They're building another giant greenhouse (20% bigger than aurora) as well but i think targeted production is only around 80000kg or so, so about 20% less actually. A fair number of analysts are watching this one, and it moved off venture awhile ago. They also are trying to do things in the US. My number are a bit fuzzy now, but i believe Aphria had the lowest cost to produce of the big 3 too.

The thing is, right now, all these guys are doing mickeymouse level sales. they're talking customer bases of mere thousands, which is nothing. Everything hinges on the legalization going green next year and these companies leaving the gate with a running start.

They've also already built up the hype surrounding their stocks, so you'd be getting in a bit late, so IMO my decision of who to go with is based on which stock is trading at the best deal right now and I decided Aphria looks to be that stock.

I dont think acb would be a bad pick though, I like it better than WEED, and I think if you're looking for something that's volatile and going to move the most the next time there is big news, ACB is probably the stock to own.

[zhao]

i didn't buy anything today either. It looks like painted pony might be on a slow downward wave, so i'm holding my breath it's going to do what I want and i'll get back in.

ACQ went way under my target price, but it never flattened out or even slowed down, so I avoided it. It was just slow consistent downward motion all day. I was tempted to buy it at close but the bid/ask price volumes were shit. I'll be watching it tomorrow morning @ 730am to see what it does though. It feels like the most risky stock i'm looking at, but there is some good potential reward that might be worth rolling the dice on it.

APH and cve are so close to where i want to buy. With trump spamming WTS OIL in trade chat, that should continue to scare people out of companies like cve, so we'll see if it hits what I think it will be a good buy at.


CHR turned out to be a good buy, it's already up to 7.35

[SilverRex]

gold

after 5 waves up, the latestest action in gold looks very corrective, it only means gold has further upside once a bottom has been formed.

all lining up for further strength in this sector

https://s18.postimg.org/voczfv4m1/gold_05-25-2017.png

[SilverRex]

oil_

after 5 waves up, possible wave (a) down and counter rally in progress for a wave (c) low some where between 48-49

however alt count is also possible with a 5th wave not being completed and currently in sub 4 with a higher high to come.

both count continues to support oil strength in the near to medium term imo


https://s15.postimg.org/dft9ncdfv/oil_05-25-2017.png

[SilverRex]

fcx

todays move appears to be the alt count wave 3 of 3 being started on fcx. if this is so, then fun times ahead

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil_

after 5 waves up, possible wave (a) down and counter rally in progress for a wave (c) low some where between 48-49

however alt count is also possible with a 5th wave not being completed and currently in sub 4 with a higher high to come.

both count continues to support oil strength in the near to medium term imo


https://s15.postimg.org/dft9ncdfv/oil_05-25-2017.png

Well there is the 48-49 lol

[SilverRex]

well looks like fcx pop was another head fake. back to the 11.50 target area for wave 2 bottom

as for oil, if the 43.73 to 51.97 rally was really (leg 1 up), correction should not break below 46.87 imo.

until then will have to see how it reacts at these level. some are saying the move down is pretty impulsive, but I'll use the 46.87 as line in the sand. and continue to keep a bullish tone in this sector

[zhao]

today was a pretty good day, which saw everything i want to buy plummet.

CVE and ACQ hit new all time lows, but showed no sign of losing momentum downward so I'm continuing to avoid. THey're getting mighty interesting however.

APH lost about as much, and doesn't show any signs of slowing down its downward trend either so I avoided as well.

PPY (or Pony as they list now) fell pretty hard today as well, but flattened out for the later half of the day. I ended up buying in at $5.25 with all my settled funds available figuring there is a half decent chance that might be the turning point. It pretty much fluctuated at that give or take a penny for the rest of the day, without seeing any crazy sell off or buying at the end of the day.

This is the same pattern I saw with CHR, which is has a pretty strong W going.

I feel tomorrow might see Pony rebound a bit as well as it has the makings of it's own lazier W pattern potentially developing.



CHR had another good day of slow progress upwards. I might dump this one sooner than I think for a quick 3-4% profit. we'll see what it does tomorrow and monday.


I have some settled funds activating tomorrow, but i'm probably not going to buy anything more until i sell something.

[SilverRex]

miners are pretty lack luster today compare to gold's performance, if it doesnt break up in force today it could be setting up another wave (c) down

[zhao]

The BC NDP raped my NG portfolio today. Maybe its fluff, maybe people panic selling is valid, but I doubled down on painted pony after it fell about 10% today so I'm in the camp that it should be fluff (the NDP made a stance supporting NG before). I dont think they're going to turn off their cash cow, nor do I think they're going to hate on natural gas as hard as people think. You either go nuclear or natural gas if you want reliable 'clean' 'cheap' energy for your power grid. Hydro isn't doable for everywhere.

[SilverRex]

picked up 1 position in ccj now that it finally made a new low under 9.34

update: I trade in CAD so my position is at 12.27 w/ cco.to

[BavarianBeast]

Can anyone lend me a boost? i can't reach the noose :rofl:

[max_boost]

Aphria :cry:

Is it time to average down yet? In at 6.73 and now 5.25 lol

[littledan]

ya, wondering the same thing on SL.CN .

Bought in @ 1.75, again at 1.65, then again at 1.45... :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:

I'm holding some APH I picked up at 5.65....

[STI]

Massive inventory draws. Crude hitting $50+ by 8:40am.

[SilverRex]

ccj

it took quite a long time but the wait was worth it. ccj finally broke under 9.34 and 5th wave down in progress.

I have opened 1 position yesterday. alt count suggest it is possible we could still get a lower low, and so I will contemplate a 2nd position if this happens, otherwise the fact we are in the final move down, I rather set myself up so I dont miss it or get too cute trying to time the perfect bottom

https://s3.postimg.org/vc9j8mtc3/ccj_06-01-2017.png

[SilverRex]

fcx

after fcx 5 waves off the bottom on May 17th. the 3 wave correction I did not expect such an over shoot to the downside. for the time being I am still considering the latest move down as a wave (ii) correction. as long as we trade above 11.53, then this count remains valid imo

if the count is real, fcx needs to begin moving up aggressively

https://s17.postimg.org/vxthd2pbj/fcx_06-01-2017.png

[SilverRex]

ccj 5 microwaves off the bottom, looking promising

[littledan]

ALERT! Supreme pharma will start trading on TSX-V on June 6. Stock jumped up 0.08 to close at 1.47 today.

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/supreme-announces-listing-of-common-shares-on-the-tsxv-under-the-symbol-fire-cse-sl-2219858.htm

Ticker will be FIRE.... LOL

[SilverRex]

gdx

gold is currently challenging the multi year down trendline, the very same one that has held gold back on every false breakout in 2016 including the Trump election night rally.

will it breakout and catch everyone off guard? who knows. but cycle guys are still looking at a summer low in the coming months. so I can only lean a bit towards more consolidation or perhaps even a slightly lower low for miners

but looking purely on gdx this morning, clearly we have a neckline breakout on the backs of a inverted h&s pattern which is tarting the 23.8-24 area.

as long as price remains above 22.45 I will view this as a pretty good risk/reward short term play

https://s24.postimg.org/s26m8vn91/gdx_06-02-2017.png

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


Will do.

Anybody thinking about getting into Source Energy's IPO?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-14/source-energy-said-to-seek-c-250-million-in-toronto-ipo

Dayum.

$11.50 IPO 8 weeks ago. Sitting at $7.50 right now.

[max_boost]

dang 4.92 low for aphria today lol

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by max_boost
dang 4.92 low for aphria today lol

double down, no sense pussy footin around

[max_boost]

^ that's the plan at some point lol

maybe $3 to 4 range haha?

[BavarianBeast]

Haha, who knows. I still think there is lots of upside.

A large chunk of the MJ industry seemed to of taken a 5% hit across the board...

APH.V - down 5%
OGI.V - down 4%
HMMJ.TO - down 5%
ACBFF - down 5%


:dunno:

[max_boost]

haha if anyone were to know, it would be you bro. Beyond Oracle haha

[kenny]

Hmm didn't know there was some sort of promotion going on for TD, just had all my trade commissions rebated back to me.

That will cover some of my bad picks :rofl:

[littledan]

Originally posted by kenny
Hmm didn't know there was some sort of promotion going on for TD, just had all my trade commissions rebated back to me.

That will cover some of my bad picks :rofl:

This might explain why they are refunding some of your commissions.... lol

L7G0OfJUON8

[zhao]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Haha, who knows. I still think there is lots of upside.

A large chunk of the MJ industry seemed to of taken a 5% hit across the board...

APH.V - down 5%
OGI.V - down 4%
HMMJ.TO - down 5%
ACBFF - down 5%


:dunno:


its not just MJ, it's virtually everything I watch that's taken a huge hit in the last week +: energy, commodities/mining, retail, etc. The only things actually doing good right now that I watch are aerospace stocks and a handful of solid stocks that only deal in small fluctuations.

The sad thing is I do not see energy rebounding in the short term to the point where it is worth selling, so looks like i'm in for awhile after failing on guessing the bottom of painted pony. I dont see that stock rebounding to where it's worth it for me to sell for awhile, plus the whole reason i started buying and selling it was because i figure in 6months + it'll be doing pretty good.

MJ I wouldn't worry too much about either. It's going legal and it should spike when that happens. I wouldn't buy it until it levels out though from this downward motion. I wouldn't be surprised if we see aph under 4, acb under 2, and weed in the 6s this week.

[SilverRex]

gold

one has to wonder the significance and implication of gold finally breaking the multi-year down trendline (red) perhaps we are now moving into a higher consolidation range/zone (orange)

https://s12.postimg.org/uvddiewtp/gold_breakout3.png

[max_boost]

Originally posted by zhao




MJ I wouldn't worry too much about either. It's going legal and it should spike when that happens. I wouldn't buy it until it levels out though from this downward motion. I wouldn't be surprised if we see aph under 4, acb under 2, and weed in the 6s this week. i'm gonna double down on aph at some point but yea 3.99 looking possible haha

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by max_boost
i'm gonna double down on aph at some point but yea 3.99 looking possible haha

I have an order in for $4.65 but it won't get whacked lol.

edit: Oooo here it comes...

[max_boost]

Lol thE low was 4.65 haha did you get in?

[zhao]

$4 for APH was actually a typo, I meant to say 4.50, but after looking how things played out today...... MJ is getting hammered possibly worse than Oil, and these stocks are valued based on hopes and dreams so maybe $4ish is a possibility for aph. I figured it would go down as much as it did today, but spread out over the entire week, not all in one day. I guess it's possible it will dip more tomorrow (I dont think so personally), but i'll be pretty surprised if aph hits $4.00 unless there is some more bad news about something or other.

At least my painted pony looks like it might of hit a bottom yesterday. Tomorrow might be a interesting day for that stock also as they have a big meeting scheduled with big fund/bank/etc investors.

[BavarianBeast]

Nope, couldn't get it filled.

I do hold a few shares now but was hoping to average down with the low today..

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
gdx

awhile back was expecting gdx_to hit the red box with price falling under wave A below 21.

it dipped to 20.89 and that is all she wrote. wasnt able to get my ideal entry in the 20.3-20.5 area but it did technically achieve the requirement for this bottom. Sure I should have at least open 1 leverage position when price was under 21. then again I have enough invested, I rather stick to my own game plan.


now that price moved strongly above the 21.75 and 22.28 area, it does appear a new daily cycle has emerged.

so as long as 21.75 holds, I think price should imo find its way back to retesting the a high above 25.

The June 19 turn date from Armstrong could also signal a potential top in mid to late June (just like 2016) so I want to anticipate a turn here also for a wave 1 of 3 top or a bearish alt C top._how we play this I guess we will just have to wait and see

https://s18.postimg.org/lk4i8zvux/gdx_05-12-2017.png

just reposting this count, so far count remains intact. last week I mention the inverted h&s pattern targeting the 23.8-24. so long 22.45 does not get broken to the downside. it literally came within 4 pennies. Talk about trying to shake everyone off.

miners finally had to catch up to gold as gold refuse to correct significantly. Now that we have reached our H&S price objective, there was a huge Sell on strength volume yesterday in the mining complex -356m which could be a prelude for a red day.

regardless if miner ran its course and a big summer sell off is on the horizon or the major breakout is now underway. I think gdx should still get to about 25-26 before a good topping

[ickyflex]

Ouch crude build

[SilverRex]

gold

just wanted to talk about the significance of gold's 6 year down trend line breakout. technically this is extremely bullish however it may still need to hold above this breakout (red line) for a few more days or even close the week above this for a better confirmation.

the only caution is that this breakout isnt on huge volume and miners continues to lag which is a concern. if we see price dropping back below the trendline then this is an extremely reverse weakness at hand and the weak summer doldrums will begin.

however if this is 'the' signal, then i would like to see price continue to make higher highs and at least reach or challenge the peak of the election night before topping. We may still get our typical summer weakness but it will be in the form of an expected correction and the back test (blue arrows) will then become possibly one of the best buying areas for the coming 8-10 months.

example would be the DOW breakout back in early 2016 when it too broke a similar significant down trendline, backtest and never looked back.

update: gold is challenging or backtesting the breakout trendline now. if this is a real breakout price needs to hold and make a strong reversal otherwise this could be a pretty big bull trap.

personally I have a mental support at 1258.8 if gold breaks this then it will be an extremely bearish case for the coming months.

https://s14.postimg.org/cy5k4idu9/gold_06-08-2017.png

[SilverRex]

ccj

it finally got that lower low. but not low enough for me to add another position without taking on more risk so I will wait and see.

I would like to think the bottom is in, waiting for confirmation and price to break above 9.45 follow by 10.04

https://s24.postimg.org/k0j7cvgt1/ccj_06-08-2017.png

[KO22]

How is the charting looking for FCX? This bag hold life is fun

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KO22
How is the charting looking for FCX? This bag hold life is fun

it's always difficult to try and time a bottom. but stepping back again big picture still looks fine to me. 1-2, 1-2 setup.

this week looks good as we have a swing low and with a mirror bottoming pattern just like Oct 2016, I would like to see fcx aggressively move back into 13s

also copper appears to finally breaking out of its multi month flag pennant patter as well. hopefully this is what the doctor ordered

https://s2.postimg.org/8c2oa5u09/fcx_06-09-2017.png

[SilverRex]

ccj looks like it is ready to gap over 9.45 and also produce a swing low on the daily chart. looking good

[ercchry]

Fun day for tech... temp over reaction due to uk election? Or start of the decline/bubble popping?

Netflix is a tempting buy right now... hrm

[zhao]

you know what might be a tempting buy. HBC.tsx

11% drop today, mainly due to them saying they are going to lay off 2g people.

The company is basically half real estate owner/half retailer. Half the retail is shit imo, half the retail is ok, but it its not losing mega bucks. Retail is scary shit right now, but their stores aren't empty, they sell shit people want to buy, and generally have to or want to go to their stores to get. They aren't sears 2.0.

Price to book is pretty amazing when you factor in the property assets. They have some plans for the future. Not a total idiot at the helm. THey've been looking at other companies for how to develop a REIT. All-in-all i'd say at 8.60 i'd expect a real healthy rebound.

[max_boost]

Nice bump for Aphria over the last 2 days. Shoulda averaged down haha now might as well just wait for it to go back to 7? lol or not

[SilverRex]

gold

after gold appear to have broken out of the multi-year down trendline. it has since falling back under it. the 1259 key support I mention which is my land of the sand, held up so far. with price current staying above the multi year trendline. breakout or false breakout will be significant. If the breakout was real and the rise today was legit, gold needs to hold above 1269 and continue to move up.

the moment gold breaks down below 1269 and especially under 1259, I would then expect a multi month low to occur thru summer rather than a top.

https://s9.postimg.org/uygdggmhb/gold_06-14-2017.png

[Manhattan]

you know what might be a tempting buy. HBC.tsx

11% drop today, mainly due to them saying they are going to lay off 2g people.

The company is basically half real estate owner/half retailer. Half the retail is shit imo, half the retail is ok, but it its not losing mega bucks. Retail is scary shit right now, but their stores aren't empty, they sell shit people want to buy, and generally have to or want to go to their stores to get. They aren't sears 2.0.

Price to book is pretty amazing when you factor in the property assets. They have some plans for the future. Not a total idiot at the helm. THey've been looking at other companies for how to develop a REIT. All-in-all i'd say at 8.60 i'd expect a real healthy rebound.

You'll have to be real patient. They just slashed dividend by 75% which is never a good sign. Their retail in Canada is doing fine but the large majority of their sales comes from their brands and stores in the US which is tanking since its a MUCH more competitive environment. What you see locally at the HBC stores has very little effect on their overall results. It might be years before they can spin out a REIT and who knows what can happen in the time in between.

[kenny]

You'll have to be real patient. They just slashed dividend by 75% which is never a good sign. Their retail in Canada is doing fine but the large majority of their sales comes from their brands and stores in the US which is tanking since its a MUCH more competitive environment. What you see locally at the HBC stores has very little effect on their overall results. It might be years before they can spin out a REIT and who knows what can happen in the time in between.

The whole Sears news is likely going to drag HBC down with it for a bit too

[SilverRex]

gold

after gold taking out the critical 1269 it became extremely bearish in the short term. miners are heavily oversold, cant rule out after initial gap down at the open price would give a relief rally.

looking at the daily chart. so far the false breakout appears to be holding. while nothing to get excited about, personally I dont hold any leverage play so I can wait this one out. infact I will be looking for opportunity to add during this pull back. I posted the 4 rate hike in blue arrow. while history doesnt always repeat itself, contrary to popular belief that rate hikes are bad for gold, one can clearly see how the first 3 hikes ended with gold going higher.

so with this 4th one adding to gold has also hit RSI oversold territory, and there is a key turn date of Jun 19th which I may have mention a while ago, there is still potentially a summer rally coming. However first we will see how gold reacts and wait for a daily cycle swing.

I am now going to watch how gold reacts if it can reach the 61% level of the 1214 to 1296 run up at around 1240-1245.

https://s14.postimg.org/3upvv7fpd/gold_6-15-2017.png

[SilverRex]

GDX / GLD ratio

another one can watch is the gdx to gld ratio. this ratio has been in consolidation ever since the sector bottomed late last year. in order for miners to start outperforming gold, this ratio needs to breakout would be another bullish sign if the summer rally (like last year) continues. it would now appear the ratio is trying to retest the rising neckline one last time making it a possible ideal spot for the bottom (within a week)

https://s13.postimg.org/7calkcxlj/gold_miner_ratio.png

[SilverRex]

gdx

gdx was not able to make it to the 25-26 area as I first thought. for the time being it still looks like it is still in correction and working on wave c of ii. So long as price does not breach 20.89, this count remains valid and I am keeping the 25-26 area target at bay.

https://s9.postimg.org/s5gwnxyqn/gdx_06-15-2017.png

[SilverRex]

oil

hadnt posted an oil chart for a while. all these week to week swings must be killing alot of traders. I do not have any oil position. but if oil dives towards the bottom of the declining wedge in the 40-42 area I may just do given the risk/reward.

with all the global supply, there are talks that oil needs to head back to 20 or even lower before the real multi year bottom is in. I am now leaning towards this theory but still expect oil to make a run towards 60-70 oil before seeing a new low. then I expect the true inflationary cycle to begin where oil could then begin a secular bull market towards oil above 150.

the declining wedge to me looks corrective. I am not going to count the daily swings as it is pretty messy. the weakness in the producers are also confirming this notion imo. Even with this overall bearish case longer term, I think money can still be made by going long this year still then shorting the next.

https://s18.postimg.org/iymzlr5sp/oil_06-15-2017.png

[ickyflex]

markets are so crazy

BTE back at $3... oh the temptation

[zhao]

Markets are definitely fucked right now. I can't predict anything accurately right now.

Even my zinc stock (tv.to) I can't figure out right now and that stock was a no brainer before. Zinc fell a lot this week, so I figured the stock would go down like it always does when zinc falls, but it barely moved, so I didn't sell to cash in on my profits and rebuy lower. So zinc starts to recover yesterday and today nicely, and the stock falls like a brick today out of left field lol. Whatever, I bought more of it at a good price and it recovered a bit by the end of the day..... I haven't checked but my guess is some fund decided to lower their exposure in it; all I know is some jackoff decided to sell about 800000 shares right after lunch. Tomorrow if it doesn't go up I'm going to throw in the towel for trying to make sense of that stock lol, because zinc sure has rebounded in overseas markets right now. TV should go up about 5% tomorrow if zinc prices hold at their current price overnight.

As for energy..... what a trainwreck. NG has a huge rebound today, and yet pony.to still plummets. Makes me regret rebuying 2 weeks ago because what a hell of a deal that stock is becoming. Even if the NDP hang on to power in BC, I do not think they are going to do anything full retard with Natural Gas. Thank god I sold prior to that in the 5.6s when I assumed it would go down a bit... how wrong was I thought on what a 'bit' meant lol.

[zhao]

You'll have to be real patient. They just slashed dividend by 75% which is never a good sign. Their retail in Canada is doing fine but the large majority of their sales comes from their brands and stores in the US which is tanking since its a MUCH more competitive environment. What you see locally at the HBC stores has very little effect on their overall results. It might be years before they can spin out a REIT and who knows what can happen in the time in between.

ya I dont want to buy it myself (except for quick in and outs), but i think if someone wants to go long, it could be a good stock to go in to. Slashing a dividend sure is shit for short term stock prices, but I see 2 angles that could be good for the future.

IMO sears is fucked, like fucked fucked. market cap of 80million, falling like a piano out of an airplane. Sears news is definitely dragging down HBC stock prices, because of 'reasons', probably more than HBC's own problems warrant. But when sears canada goes bust, that may be good for HBC. They'll have less competition, and that might translate into better sales. However, foot traffic may go down in malls by losing a big anchor store like sears....... but IMO sears isn't bringing a huge number of people to a mall anyway. My guess is there is a very good chance HBC will be back up to 11ish a share in 6-12 months.

Then there is the long term play where HBC may evolve in to something else entirely. I wouldn't worry too much about buying their stock unless they start selling off assets, or closing down departments, or shelves start getting sparse. I personally think HBC stock is pretty undervalued right now.

[SilverRex]

usa.to

the consolidation is real. I suspect big move is coming one way or the other. but so far nothing has change for me to invalidate this count. a wave of 1-2s. I have 2 position in the 2.88 and 1 in 3.6. The under performing silver junior miners would be a great sign in this complex if it can move ahead of the pack

https://s18.postimg.org/5h87eckq1/usa_06-16-2017.png

[zhao]

Hbc was rocking it today. Instantly up 17% plus in the first 5 minutes of trading. Of course I own no shares lol

[cloud7]

Hbc was rocking it today. Instantly up 17% plus in the first 5 minutes of trading. Of course I own no shares lol

It is always tough when you predicted something but don't have money riding on it. Good call though.

[zhao]

It is always tough when you predicted something but don't have money riding on it. Good call though.

ya, even more painful because everything I've bought in the last 4 weeks is losing me money or going no where at the moment.

A month ago one of my picks was BBD.B. if it dropped to 2.05 i was going to buy. I bought something else over it (i think chr, which I made actually a bit on very quickly) but I could have gotten in on bombardier under 2.10 and now its currently at 2.59 lol.

APH/weed/acb I was watching and considering pulling the trigger on too. I could have gotten in APH close to 4.5, or acb close to 1.92, but I jumped back in pony as it was doing what i was expecting and totally misjudged the bc election... and well now pony is at 4.3 lol FML, while aph is 5.5 and acb is 2.1x.

Doesn't matter too much though. I picked pony because i think long term looks better. Bombardier is a fucking mess of a company and the only thing I like about it is its in quebec and because of that there is literally zero chance a Trudeau will let that company fail. APH/acb/weed are technically worth about as much as a fart in the wind and technically could be priced at anything at any time.

TV (pure zinc mining company) is my other limpdick pick, but technically it's done ok. It's had two solid rises of 10-15% and then two semi predictable falls since I bought it. If I was shorting it I'd be laughing now, but i'm fairly confident that stock should take off and I dont really want to sell it and get left behind. It's really confusing me now though sitting about 5-6% below what it 'should' be trading at right now. Random news out of China about one day the economy being down, and the next day it rock'n is about the only thing that makes sense for why this stock is down while zinc stockpiles continue to run out (the world mines about 12 million tons a year, and LME reserves are at about 310000tons (falling by 30000tons a month), the lowest they've been in forever. At some point you'd think zinc prices should skyrocket...

[bspot]

Time to load the boat on oil? It gets pretty scary if $43 breaks. Touching a down channel, oversold on all time-frames, and hitting major support at $43:
https://invst.ly/459kz

[ercchry]

Why did I not get into HCG... $5 to $15+ in what? 6 weeks? :cry:

[ickyflex]

Still watching the market on oil. Hasn't stopped falling in a while

[SilverRex]

gdx

we nearly have 5 micro waves down which means we should get a bounce soon. right now gdx must remain above 20.89 in order to give any hope to a summer rally and on track to take out the 25.6 high. And it needs to do that soon. gold also needs to get back above 1260 to fend off technical damage. Until it does so, the risk remains to the down side. Gdx breaking below 20.89 would be first confirmation summer weakness underway for a possible low in August. which I have outlined in red wave (C) which will result in price taking out the Dec 2016 low.

https://s18.postimg.org/t51vowrpl/gdx_06-20-2017.png

[Manhattan]

Hbc was rocking it today. Instantly up 17% plus in the first 5 minutes of trading. Of course I own no shares lol


Why did I not get into HCG... $5 to $15+ in what? 6 weeks? :cry:

Do you guys kick yourself every time the lottery numbers come out lol. These stocks have severely distressed values for a reason. HCG could have easily gone belly up if financing wasn't lined up. The people who made money took a big gamble that happened to work out. It could've easily gone either way which doesn't make it a great investment even in retrospect given the level of risk.

[Manhattan]

Wow, just took a look at a couple beyond favorites - BTE and MEG. Both are priced for receivership again. Debt servicing might take them under if oil doesn't recover swiftly this year.

[ercchry]

Do you guys kick yourself every time the lottery numbers come out lol. These stocks have severely distressed values for a reason. HCG could have easily gone belly up if financing wasn't lined up. The people who made money took a big gamble that happened to work out. It could've easily gone either way which doesn't make it a great investment even in retrospect given the level of risk.


There is a whole thread where I have already had this conversation... Coles notes; they had the LOC in place, financial companies of this size get government intervention, most loans were sound, anything insurable is securitized

[suntan]

I was pilloried for suggesting it. Ah well.

[cloud7]

Wow, just took a look at a couple beyond favorites - BTE and MEG. Both are priced for receivership again. Debt servicing might take them under if oil doesn't recover swiftly this year.

So good time to buy in if you think oil will get back to $50 this year?

[ickyflex]

I wouldn't touch anything until it finishes bottoming out.

Even good news makes oil fall so it's best to just watch for now

[jacky4566]

Wow, just took a look at a couple beyond favorites - BTE and MEG. Both are priced for receivership again. Debt servicing might take them under if oil doesn't recover swiftly this year.

Shh. Don't remind me that i'm holding anchors. Like a true sucker I might even buy more to lower my average. I figure MEG will bottom at

[bspot]

Anyone catch this LABU swing?

I was in for about 12% of it... feeling silly for not letting it ride now. Crazy run.

[BavarianBeast]

AVXL: Good buy at $5.73
TBPH: I would buy under 40

:thumbsup:

Doggin it..

[zhao]

Do you guys kick yourself every time the lottery numbers come out lol. These stocks have severely distressed values for a reason. HCG could have easily gone belly up if financing wasn't lined up. The people who made money took a big gamble that happened to work out. It could've easily gone either way which doesn't make it a great investment even in retrospect given the level of risk.

Lolol burn, FML :( ...lol.

But seriously, that isn't a good comparison, unless the day before the winning lottery numbers were announced we were thinking of buying a ticket with those exact numbers.

HBC i've been following daily all year. I've bought and sold it a few times this year and made money every time so far. Its the only stock I've been super accurate at guessing when its going to fall and when its going to go up and while i haven't acted on them all, at the moment HBC has made me the most money this year (I went all in with one of my trading accounts on a 20%+ swing I put 18% in my pocket, and did some quick in and outs with 5 or 6g on some minor 2% movements). For example; I was fairly certain last month we'd see it fall to 8.xx soon, and it did. I was fairly certain at that price it was a no brainer to buy too, and it looks like it was. This isn't the first 20% swing I figured was going to happen, but its the first one I didn't have money freed up to take advantage of.

I dont mind missing stuff usually, but definitely kicked myself on this one a bit because I totally fucked up hard buying something that's losing me about 20% vs something that would have gained me about 20%.


I bet ercchry saw the potential in HCG like I saw it in HBC..... but me personally on HCG, i wasn't touching taht thing with a 10 foot pole. I had no knowledge about that company and if it was likely to rebound or stagnate at it's bottom.

[ercchry]

If we want to talk about missing out on lotto numbers... I have an account that had access to 5x leveraged bitcoin, if I dumped $5k into that at the beginning of the year, that would be close to $4mm now :cry:

[SilverRex]

biotech

according to the sentiment optix, biotech is in an extreme optimism state after a pretty strong run up. in the short term, this could setup a topping in this sector.

https://s11.postimg.org/ifnd54jv7/biotech.png

[Vanish3d]

FCX is at a tripple bottom?

[SilverRex]

IBB

while short term biotech could run into some weakness due to the sentiment extreme. big picture shows we are now in wave 3 of 3 (most powerful leg up) which imo should see this sector testing very close to the 2015 high and break above it by next year.

if anyone remembers all the biotech chart I posted a very long time ago, the big picture count never really changed. the low last year marked the wave (IV) and we are in the final major wave (V) sequence. the side way chop and grind was very painful and would be a day traders dream. However it is nice to finally see some action and follow thru.

this reminds me when gold was correcting in a pretty big way back in 2008 for about a year only to turn around shortly after it broke the down trendline. and we all saw what happen, gold then went on to nearly triple off the low.

https://s15.postimg.org/p5xoss9iz/ibb_06-22-2017.png

[SilverRex]

this was the chart I posted back in dec 2016. we are clearly moving in the green path. to ensure biotech does not turn bearish in a major way. it has no business breaking below 300 and more importantly under 292 ever again.

I lean towards new all time high simply because the stock market has entered the final melt up euphoria stage where it will just keep going up. The warning sign would be when indexes double or more in 1 year or less which classifies as a bubble then one has to start unwinding their long position for the next major collapse cycle or secular bear market

https://s12.postimg.org/5yvsfuy71/ibb_12-14-2016.png

[max_boost]

If we want to talk about missing out on lotto numbers... I have an account that had access to 5x leveraged bitcoin, if I dumped $5k into that at the beginning of the year, that would be close to $4mm now :cry:

Bro man. You and TypeS1 are the gangsters who would dare to attempt that shit. haha

Imagine. :bigpimp: haha

[SilverRex]

picked up a small position in bte this morning. if oil does get into the 40-42 zone I may add another.

[zhao]

what I'm looking at right now:

pony is starting to recover and looks like $4 might have been a bottom. Natural gas recovered a bit but i think its more people are over the NDP jitters from the BC election. I still think anything could happen in the next month here though, and while i'd love to see it break $5, i'm not holding my breath. I half expect it to fall again as the first slightly bad news out there.

TV.tsx is back to being predictable for me, although now it's lagging a day behind what i think it should be trading at (i think a lot of people are playing lets wait and see with zinc prices). Tomorrow it should break 1.20, which has been a barrier for it, and if it does could see prices go higher still. Zinc hit as high as 1.24 per pound which could see tv breakout of the 1.20 barrier and venture towards the 1.30s. I'll be watching what zinc does on the shanghai markets that has really been driving the price up this week. Tomorrow will likely end in LME zinc warehouse stock falling into the 2xxxxx ton range, which is another nice mental image that will help prices climb potentially. I dont think we are going to see zinc skyrocket until at least end of summer though personally... but who knows. I have my trigger finger ready to sell if I see zinc prices fall, which they could do at any time (been up and down all spring)


as for Marijuana... aph is starting to look tasty again. If it gets closer to $5 and I have money free I'll probably jump in to that. ACB is also a tempting as I see more potential there, but it's been very limp dick for movement compared to WEED and APH, and while 2.17 seems good, i dont really want to buy it unless its under 2.10.

CHR is back up. i'm guessing it will probably hover here and do some minor ups and downs around this price. If it gets down to the 7.2x's i'd be interested in it again.

HBC is on my backburner as it seems to risky to me at $11-12. I'll start looking at it again if it gets some shitty fluff news that makes it fall to close to $9ish.
BBD.B is almost off my radar but it has fallen lately so I am still keeping an eye on it.

CVE also leveled out right now and is tempting me to buy it again. @9 CVE is probably one hell of a long term gamble that could pay off big. If you think $50 oil is likely in the next year or 2, that is probably a pretty safe price. if you think $55-60 a barrel is possible, it's a potential goldmine. I still think they are in 6 months of shit sandwiches, but wouldn't be surprised if they still broke double digits in that time. There has been talk that they are likely to be in a position of getting bought out, but I personally think that is horse shit. Suncor might be in a position to do it, but I can't see any company looking at what CVE did (went from low debt cash rich to leveraged to fuck doubling down on some assets they over paid for), and wanting to become CVE 2.0.

BTE is now on my radar to watch as well.

[SilverRex]

copper

after a few false breakout attempt, has copper finally ready to make a new high?

https://s1.postimg.org/cihshmiq7/copper.png

[zhao]

zinc held strong overnight, so TV broke the 1.20 barrier and took off today like i was figuring. was tempted to sell at 1.27, but I held on to it and it closed at 1.26. I think there is a good chance TV will break 1.30s if zinc prices remain strong. any big dip in zinc prices and i'm selling and will re-enter. It's a solid company that's done a lot recently to improve itself + has a very favorable outlook by a lot + is looking at potentially skyrocketing zinc prices. Combine that and a lot of people think this stock will hit $2-$3. As I said before $3 seem unlikely but my personal gamble is i'm banking it likely hits 1.70+


pony looks like it's back to being a solid day trading stock. + and then - 20 cents lol.

chr made my wife happy today, up to 7.68. that stock is now way too rich for me to want to buy it, although as far as i'm concerned it should be a no brainer on that thing hitting $8 within a year + its healthy 6+% dividend on top which would still translate in to a fairly safe stock.

aph and acb are down slightly, pushing them closer to a price that i'd like to buy them at.

cve went up a lot today... i'd give it a couple weeks though to see if $9 was a bottom for this stock or not though. This stock has had a trend of rebounding 5% + and then crashing hard for another month+. Crude oil prices are a pretty big wildcard right now.