Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

gdx closed below 22.45, however the out performance in gdxj as well as silver over gold has me on the fence. after all these wave (c) are always gut wrenching to watch. I sold 1/3 of my Jnug and watching this closely. my next critical exit will be gdx under 22.00

[SilverRex]

spx

like most indexes, they are now near the bottom of their respective rising channel. I am going to guess we will spend the next couple of months and perhaps even this year grinding out some sort of bullish wedge pattern and upon breakout will give us the final meltup (vertical) shot blow off top landing in 2019. then a bigger correction follows.

https://s14.postimg.org/u3zeyhzdt/spx_guess.png

[RX_EVOLV]

Still watching the market before buying back in... I think oil will head towards $62 though... buying some HOD here.

[mr2mike]

My MJ stocks have rocketed up. If it keeps see-sawing, I'll be selling my long positions and just day trading the technicals.

[SilverRex]

Well we will now see if this bounce in cryptocoins has any legs. The one thing I notice that is different this time was that previous bounce, the entire crypto shares were incredibly weak. However today it is now moving along side.

https://s14.postimg.org/t0t2rv629/crypto_shares.png

[CUG]

Got into ACB at 9.xx to try and recover the beatdown from being in $HIP at 1.99 and $TGIF at .82. Up on ACB. Still getting hosed on the other two.

[OTown]

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Warren+Buffett+%24100billion+cash

Ugh, I searched Warren Buffett crash not cash yesterday. Thx

Nice turnaround day today. We will see if it can keep up this week

[chungstachung]

anyone holding pony still!?

[SilverRex]

anyone holding pony still!?

sold all my energy stuff awhile ago when this sector refuse to move strongly despite 60+ oil.

[chungstachung]

its below 2 now, oh man HODL or just accept the loss haha

[SilverRex]

divergence

I have always noticed that the gdx/gld ratio chart to be quite in sync to the movement with gdx iteself . However lately it is doing something entirely differently, it is diverging quite a bit. Because despite miners appears to be correcting significantly, gold hasnt.

I think what this tells me is that, we have something big coming up. One of the chart is lying. Either miner is simply just leading and gold is about to crash which will further cause another sell off gdx under 18. or gold is about to erupt to the top side and miners is being pull down to the extreme like a spring/coil ready to explode. I am sure EW wise, you can still count gdx as a very steep wave 2 pull back, that can still be valid if gold reveal its hand and surprise everyone to the upside.

https://s14.postimg.org/6yc5a8dr5/gdx_vs_ratio.png

[SilverRex]

from my calculations, gdx at 22 is a pretty critical level. going to exit all my leverage if it closes any day below 22.

[mr2mike]

Got into ACB at 9.xx to try and recover the beatdown from being in $HIP at 1.99 and $TGIF at .82. Up on ACB. Still getting hosed on the other two.

I'm long on TGIF. They're looking very good once revenue starts getting published. They'll be well over $1.00 soon.
TNY as well.
People have a false fear on the USA weed market.

[D'z Nutz]

Got into ACB at 9.xx to try and recover the beatdown from being in $HIP at 1.99 and $TGIF at .82. Up on ACB. Still getting hosed on the other two.

Got into ACB yesterday morning at $10.25 and dumped it at $12.27 before I got out of bed this morning bwahaha

[SilverRex]

with gold running an ending diagonal pattern I suspect gold should rally today. we will see how the share goes, as technically it needs to jump. if miners gap down it may be a good ST play at least

[SilverRex]

Blok.v

This one looks like the first to breakout from the multi month wedge. most crypto shares I see appears to only have 3 waves up. if we see a higher high this week, it could strengthen the chance that a major bottom in this sector is in.

https://s14.postimg.org/s6ci5sxap/blok_02-08-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Gold

I recall posting when gold produced a green reversal hammer on the daily along side RSI.being oversold during the last low at 1236, it resulted in being a bottom.

so let see if it can repeat this today. All the safe traders are probably waiting for a swing low to occur and gold I imagine is seeking out a daily cycle low

https://s14.postimg.org/dpp8qs541/gold_hammer.png

[Vanish3d]

GDX closed below 22. did you sell your leverage miners?

I'm still holding on JNUG with average of 17 :(.... too scared to let go now and watch it skyrocket (as always !)

[bspot]

anyone holding pony still!?

Yes :(

I was also nervously holding a whack of DWT. Oil was looking so damn strong I was worried I was going to get burned.

[sabad66]

Blok.v

This one looks like the first to breakout from the multi month wedge. most crypto shares I see appears to only have 3 waves up. if we see a higher high this week, it could strengthen the chance that a major bottom in this sector is in.

https://s14.postimg.org/s6ci5sxap/blok_02-08-2018.png

have you looked at KASH.V by any chance? I was debating between BLOK or KASH but decided to go with KASH as they seem to have a great CEO.

They just split this past Monday Feb 5 so charts might look a bit wonky.

[SilverRex]

GDX closed below 22. did you sell your leverage miners?

I'm still holding on JNUG with average of 17 :(.... too scared to let go now and watch it skyrocket (as always !)

I havent. I did reduce my size by 1/3 a few days back when it broke 22.45, unlike last year where 90% of my portfolio was in metals/PMs. im actually a bit spread out between MJ/Crypto/Metals. So risk isnt weighted as heavy and so I am watching gold closely to see if it can close the day with a reversal hammer (like previous bottom) I think miners are due for a bounce regardless of direction. You can take that chance to light up your position so that you can sleep at night.

stepping back from view miners are in a big range with gdx 21-25. I think if price was to close above or below this, the breakout would be quite significant imo.

[SilverRex]

Gold

so gold was able to close yesterday with a good looking reversal hammer. a swing low is also confirmed along side with RSI in oversold territory. I say as long as it doesnt breaking yesterday's low the potential gold could bottom here remains high in my own book.

miners are probably being tested to the extreme. my line in the sand, if gdx closes below 21 in anyway I am pretty sure I will exit my leverage.

https://s14.postimg.org/3lj4257u9/gold_02-09-2018.png

[SilverRex]

the SM DJI, NASQ and S&P all have a clear 5 wave down count.going to move the cash I have set aside in my RRSP into the equities market. expecting it will bounce after 5 waves down. my personal expectation is to see some sort of triangle or running flat correction with this leg down being the strongest drop.

[max_boost]

^^

Wait so the markets are gonna bounce back up here or bounce back down? I can't quite understand your post lol

I just had an influx of cash come through about $50k and I'm debating where to dump it or wait a bit?

It's gonna go into 3 sectors but dunno the timing or breakdown. Bonds/TSX/Dow. Maybe 25/25/50

[SilverRex]

^^

Wait so the markets are gonna bounce back up here or bounce back down? I can't quite understand your post lol

I just had an influx of cash come through about $50k and I'm debating where to dump it or wait a bit?

It's gonna go into 3 sectors but dunno the timing or breakdown. Bonds/TSX/Dow. Maybe 25/25/50

im expecting the market to bounce once a intraday bottom forms since a clearly 5 waves down should trigger a move back up (short covering etc). My RRSP doesnt kick in until the EOD so I dont mind the sector keeping it down here and perhaps a gap up monday to get things started

[SilverRex]

all the index is recovering nicely off the low. could close out the day with a reversal hammer.

[SilverRex]

Oil

havent posted for some time, count remains the same, was expecting wave 3 top and I think it is in. now seeking out a wave IV correction. could be sharp or triangle no one knows, buy I do expect price to eventually make another run and hit 70+, will this lift energy shares? pretty disappointed this sector has been under performing. Big picture, if wave (A) top at 51.64 will be a critical support. for now just expecting a very large ABC pattern

https://s14.postimg.org/gyvfwg1sh/oil_02-09-2018.png

[asp integra]

come back Pony, come back!

[Disoblige]

I didn't play any JNUG today but that price action is crazy. And even AH up 52 cents so far. Wow.

[SilverRex]

i end up holding onto my jnug. gold refuse to drop, so ive switched my eyes to gold instead. as long as it doesnt break yesterday's low, i think the sell off is over done.

S&P tagged the 200 day with a major reversal. i really was hoping to have it stay red by the end of the day but no luck.

also the buying on weakness

BoW with GDX at a massive +$357 MILL, TLT at +$148 MILL, and GLD at $58 MILL. That data alone could support a turn around.

[OTown]

all the index is recovering nicely off the low. could close out the day with a reversal hammer.

Complete 180 this afternoon. The morning was looking dreadfull

[SilverRex]

gdx

what a late day reversal on gdx. notice the triple support level which has formed a huge support in 2017. I was so close in closing out all my leverage position because gdx was breaking down. Then I looked at gold and gold couldnt even break the reversal low on Feb 8th at 1306.8, so I switched to using gold as the indicator and would pack it in if gold loses that level. But it didnt, I ended up selling my natgas at a loss (exceeded my low target by quite a margin, watch it will probably rebound due to extreme oversold) and use the proceeds to actually added back the Jnug position I sold a few days back so I get to lower the average a bit.

if you only look at gdx, it appears pretty bearish due to the breakdown, but gold/silver as well as alot of miners (depends on which one you are holding) actually are holding up extremely well, this correction never hit them anyone close to what happen to gdx. one reason could be how companies like ABX is dragging the entire complex down due to its weighting. In other words, gdx chart could be lying for all we know.

the BoW numbers on friday was astounding, COT data also supports a bottoming or reversal at hand. even with the late day rally, gdx still only has 3 waves up. so we have to see if it can generate enough momentum to give us that 5th wave and put away the low. (not that we havent seen 5 waves turn into trash lately e.g Hive) but 3 waves has >80% tendency to just be corrective action follow by lower lows) Any good reversal or new up cycle beings with a healthy 5 waves up 3 waves down.

https://s14.postimg.org/fme7dt39d/gdx_02-10-2018.png

[zhao]

anyone holding pony still!?

nope but I want to buy in next week. No idea when q4 results are going to be released but within the next month I expect people to see its still profitable and spike the stock price stock again in the short term.

My only worry is it went way below the 1.80 i was fairly sure it would hit, and now i think there is a chance to go even lower. I was looking at its history and about a decade ago it actually did a very similar plunge and it tested $1 that time. I think this thing might test 1.40 or lower this year, however, I'm still convinced someday its going to bounce back up to $6+... that just may take 3 years now+. Although 4x return in 4 years would be a pretty good return.

I actually have no idea how it can be at 1.6x unless there is something I am missing, which will become apparent in q4/year end results. I believe the CFO bought in with close to 100k shares when it dipped under $2 also. Ward still hasn't bought shit all of this company though.... which is some what worrisome. You'd think he'd have some money kicking around to buy it at a discount if he believed in it.

[TomcoPDR]

I just had an influx of cash come through about $50k and I'm debating where to dump it or wait a bit?



Oh man would be nice dumping all into pre boom MJ

[max_boost]

Oh man would be nice dumping all into pre boom MJ

That's for the real ballers / shot callers etc.

Us budget guys will just toss in 1000 shares to just play, stay trending and chat with the big boys haha :rofl:

[zhao]

The way the market has been in the last few weeks, a new car might be a better investment lol. I'm not sure when things are turning around but next week is probably a buy week for me. Some stuff just doesn't make sense why its been dumped so hard. Whats been on my mind this weekend:

pony, cj, cve are 3 i think are risky but are oversold and could see a 20% rebound in the short term (month maybe).... but also risk no rebound and new lower lows.... so risky. if any of them go any lower i think the risk is well worth the potential reward. Even at the current price its worth it imo... its just i think there is a good chance of a better entry point coming up this week for all of them.

tv and chr are the 2 that make no sense to me why they've been dumped hard, and if they get another spike downward like tehy did this week (chr touched 8.30, and pulled back to 9+ within a few hours, did a similar dip earlier in the week too) i think these 2 could be good for 5%+ instant rebound within the day. As far as i'm concerned tv is is a sure bet this year for going up, and should hit at least 1.80 imo, most likely a lot more. I'm also starting to believe the hype that in 2-3 years it may be a $3.50 stock. Its right now undervalued in the 1.40s. As for CHR it should be 9+ all year with that dividend so anytime the share goes deep in to the 8s its free money imo.

[TYMSMNY]

down market still ok, bought into HZD, HND, and HBD last week due to precious metals especially silver bouncing on/off 17-18 all day.

MJ stocks hopefully consolidates over the next week or two. a lot of PP and dilution has been on the horizon. I sure don't mind the correction as a whole though... ready to pull the trigger when needed.

[SilverRex]

ICON

one of my spec plays. had a pretty good breakout this morning. I also did add a little more last week at 1.17 to average down my position. while I dont hold a lot, this is one of those I will try to hold as long as possible for a chance of being a 10x or even a 100x. With the impulsive breakout this morning, lets hope the bottom is in and those of us that are playing this to never see our entry price hit.

https://s14.postimg.org/q9nmu3129/icon_02-12-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Gold

well as suspected, gold continues the same bottom script by forming a reversal green hammer and coming out of RSI oversold. swing low also confirmed trend change and could be the start of a new daily cycle. This is my current count. readying for wave 3. gdx/gdx indeed was oversold. either gold was lying or the miners, and so it was the miners based upon the latest action.

https://s14.postimg.org/en3isxb69/gold_02-12-2018.png

[SilverRex]

ACB

do your own DD, to me looks like a giant ABC expanding flat correction. count looks like a 1-2, 1-2 setup, I think as long as it does not close below 9, one has to expect higher highs to come

https://s14.postimg.org/x91otd8pd/acb_02-12-2018.png

[SilverRex]

WEED

while the entire MJ sector pretty much move together, ACB is a bit more bullish than the rest. Weed is still stuck under the down trendline as well as the previous h&s neckline. having price to close above 30 and remaining above it is pretty important if it wants to gain momentum. over all I am leaning towards this being a bullish ZigZag ABC correction.

https://s14.postimg.org/ypd7b3j7l/weed_02-12-2018.png

[SilverRex]

ASFX

ive got another speculative suggestion. Not sure who played this one back in 2010-2012. was just a penny stock then. one of my failed trades and in 2012 it declared bankruptcy. So I thought it was dead weight. interestingly in the last few months I noticed pp action so I looked it up and apparently the short version was that the company was able to satisfied it's debt obligations and now tries to get out of bankruptcies. If you think about it, why would you do that? I think there may be some sort of value for a debt free shell company that could be acquired or reverse merger to take place. feels like the current price range is being accumulated. I have no crystal ball and not an expert for companies emerging from BK state. Maybe someone here can shed more teaching on this.

I think this makes another good speculative play. throw some beer money at it and see what happens. Be warn though if you are not prepare to lose it all, dont take my advice and jump in blindly with your life savings. this is not what this is about. No matter who is giving trading advice, always analyze for yourself the opportunity and make your own case.

[SilverRex]

gdx

looks like 3 wave is finally completed, wave 4 underway. we need to see a higher high to seal the bottom

https://s14.postimg.org/9sj0lw6z5/gdx_02-12-2018_B.png

[SilverRex]

gold looks likes its in a leading diagonal pattern off the low, this could point to a drop which may just coincide with miners's 5th wave top completion now a 3 wave correction begins.

update: gdxj is very close to breaking yesterdays high, if this happens then wave 5 hasnt quite finished. if this is the case going to reduce my position in anticipation for a drop

[el_fefes]

Bearish article on PONY https://seekingalpha.com/article/4143186-canadian-natural-gas-disaster-outlook-strategy

[SilverRex]

Gold

charting this to show the 5 wave leading diagonal. expecting an abc to backtest the 1317 area so we could potentially have a false breakout right now.

at the same time, one has to also entertain the possibility of a real breakout with a shallow wave 2 down already completed.

https://s14.postimg.org/yhqhhj11d/gold_02-13-2018.png

[Disoblige]

Anyone playing HMJR tomorrow or 15th? Whenever it debuts?
I wasn't sure what opening price is going to be.

[SilverRex]

acb

My current expectation as long as 10.50 holds, the entire MJ sector is working off some sort of 1-2, 1-2... 1-2 again. breakout imminent? I hope so. for those holding this stuff. bought another tranche acb with mental stop

https://s14.postimg.org/s7v7ucefl/acb_02-23-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Here is a good analysis I thought I share

"The market had its worst week in more than a year – after hitting a 52-week high.

My friend Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader.com looked back at every time this had happened before in history.

He was looking for one specific condition: the worst week in a year, occurring immediately one week after a 52-week high. It occurred only 10 times in the past 90 years.

Summary: After 1 month, 100% of the time the market was higher

After 3 months, 100% of the time the market was higher.

After 6 months, 100% of the time, the market was higher.

See a pattern? I like those odds.

Supports my 85-90% confidence that this is a wave 4 in stocks, with higher highs coming."

[SilverRex]

FR (Majestic Silver)

Yes I am bias and Silver is where the money is going to be. just no one know when that day will finally come. My name has nothing to do with why I trade silver but then again I have always loved the color and it was when I had my first silver WRX. (those that remember)

anyways while I dont hold any stock in this one. the big picture looks promising. a Giant 1-2 within a 1-2 count. pretty bullish to me (long term), could still produce a lower low under 6 bucks, but see how good it mirrors the previous (1-2) setup. all I can say is, I feel we will witness something big with silver in the years ahead. The question isnt about one's ability to predict the future, rather, if you are positioned accordingly to be able to thrive on any scenario. if metal prices gets dragged down in some financial melt down like 2008, do you have cash to take advantage of the panic. If silver was to suddenly explode 10x due to an over night government reevaluation like the 70s, how will you feel the moment you wake up receiving such news.

Silver is by far the most under valued asset I have ever seen. with silver production I think that may have already peaked. a cost of 900+ dollars in order to recover silver from devices which results in silver being thrown away. all I am saying is, everyone should have some sort of exposure to silver regardless if you are a gold bug or not.

https://s14.postimg.org/wc9ysfoxd/fr_02-13-2018.png

[SilverRex]

gold/gdx
so far gold is still lingering at that down trendline. a breakout could be Ro4 to the upside. Miner's abc.wave 2 correction could be shallow here

[Disoblige]

Silver is by far the most under valued asset I have ever seen. with silver production I think that may have already peaked. a cost of 900+ dollars in order to recover silver from devices which results in silver being thrown away. all I am saying is, everyone should have some sort of exposure to silver regardless if you are a gold bug or not.
You work for JPMorgan? lol. They're hoarding silver like crazy. Perhaps it will pay off in a year or so.

[Disoblige]

Back in JNUG woot woot. 14.20

[SilverRex]

Gold

well I wish scripts were this easy every time, unfortunately not. lets just enjoy this while it is working. I was expecting a false breakout from the leading diagonal pattern and price to back test 1317 for wave II, it came within .27. doesnt get any more perfect. when EW works its beautiful.

​​​​​​​wave 3 under way.. with the false breakout hitting as high as 1337 that could also be marked wave 1 of 5 of 3. Now wave 3 of 5 of 3 imo

​​​​​​​

https://s14.postimg.org/xqtmhh5oh/gold_02-14-2018.png

[SilverRex]

gdxj

it was indeed a very shallow wave 2 correction. wave 3 underway as well for miners.

https://s14.postimg.org/advkyva4h/gdxj_02-14-2018.png

[Disoblige]

HMJR low volume, I think a lot of people either are having trouble buying it or don't know about it.
I can see it just fine on my end. I have a 9.99 order but that likely won't hit today.

[SilverRex]

Mara

this one has continue to be pressured under the falling wedge. with the potentially to finally breakout today. it is now or never

https://s14.postimg.org/xoesrhl4h/mara_02-18-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Gold

this is my ideal scenario. Will it just breakup already... the suspense is killing me.

https://s14.postimg.org/ilvebk1nl/gold_01-04-2018_B.png

How many remember this chart back on Jan 4th. cant help but think how well EW guides you when things line up. I even wished for a false breakout before the correction becomes real once it finished wave 5 off 1344. The wave c of (ii) came down to the prior wave 4 range pretty much dead on. Am I bragging here? sure why not, feels pretty dam good when things move on cue like this. One has to argue so what it is, technical analysis or was it news driven. Intraday swings are noisy but big picture is what matters I am more of a believer of technical analysis over news, not that certain news event dont matter but it will alter and change the technical picture anyways. I am sure my luck will stop and I will have to pass the torch to someone with the hot hands, until then, I hope this sector even the SM in general continues to prosper. In short, bond crash, insane money flowing into all asset classes. SM, PM and even crpyto will all challenging their highs in time.

[Disoblige]

Over half my cash I was holding for potential weed went into JNUG. 14.20 and 14.99. I love averaging up :D

[bigbadboss101]

Over half my cash I was holding for potential weed went into JNUG. 14.20 and 14.99. I love averaging up :D

Dang, and I sold yesterday at 13.8x.

[zhao]

I bought more tv this week on its big dip down to 1.40ish. That's exactly what I was waiting to happen with one of the stocks I was looking to buy, and in tv specifically it made no sense why it had a big sell off out of no where as zinc stockpiles continue to draw down, and zinc prices while they fell to 1.55ish, were still very high and should of had the stock trading in the 1.55ish range. That made it a no brainer to buy buy in at that price, so i'm back to having about 40g in this stock.

That paid off almost instantly as it rebounded by the end of the day, and while today on opening someone triggered a sell off and put it down to 1.46 or something again for about 3 seconds it tracked upwards all day and ended up sitting at around 1.59ish all afternoon, where it is still undervalued imo. zinc has also had a rebound back to its 10 year high over the last 48 hours, moving from 1.55ish back to 1.63+, so its possible we will see this stock move back in to the 1.60s tomorrow. I figure tomorrow will be somewhat stagnant for it, possibly seeing a small sell off of people taking profit from the move that just happened. if it moves in to the 1.60s without zinc going up more i'll probably liquidate and wait for another drop (although its getting close to q4 result time so I'll probably only liquidate half my shares)

we've also had about 10000 tons of zinc stock disappear from the LME in the last week, so wer'e now down to about 150,000, or still on a pace to zero that out for summer (although that is unlikely to happen). With that its possible we may see a new high for zinc by the end of the week as well, which may trigger a spike in the stock price pushing it back to 1.70ish. If zinc breaks in to a new high I wont sell unless the stock price hits near 1.70

[SilverRex]

Gold

US dollar just broke a neckline support and is hanging on barely trying to stay above it. The implication can be another big sell off (unless it was a false breakdown) another thrust down should give gold more fuel to continue it's rally.

pretty simple wave 3 top and wave 4 in progress (or may have completed) wave 5 to come. the more bullish scenario would be this is going to be an extended wave 3 orange count. personally I want to see an extended wave 3 simply because if this is the mother of all breakout (recognition phrase) then it needs to just keep stepping up with little to no pull back

https://s14.postimg.org/8p18mk1ap/gold_02-15-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Those who enjoy patterns,

did gold just printed a multi-month cup pattern with a handle breaking out? if proven successful, this is going to add another 100 dollars to the current level. 1450?

https://s14.postimg.org/er8vd3fgx/bowl_setup.png

[SilverRex]

Sil.v

one of my smaller silver juniors. Got in at the 1.3x area when it first broke out of the descending wedge which I believed ended the year long correction. Surprisingly even with the entire mining complex on the verge of collapse last week this one held up very well. I think wave III has either started or we may get one more c of II under 1.80 before launch

https://s14.postimg.org/s4udy6dox/sil_02-15-2018.png

[Disoblige]

3000 shares total JNUG in 3 different avg up positions. Will likely scale out tomorrow before weekend.

Slowly buying HMMJ as it dips lower. No position yet.

[SilverRex]

With the overnight news that the legalization of MJ being delayed, will see how this will affect the stocks as the sector is going to gap down at the open.

[SilverRex]

Gold

Gold

Negative divergence spotted this morning on gold. unless it can produce a new high above 1361.7 and turn it immediately bullish, this could mean gold still needs to drop below 1348 but needs to stay above 1336 to keep the uber bullish count alive.

https://s14.postimg.org/mzy8dyhg1/gold_02-16-2018.png

[SilverRex]

US dollar

after what appear to be dollar breaking down it has now reversed and tries to recover all of yesterday's move down and on the verge of it's own divergence. for now I would say it will be a concern and will add pressure to gold if the index manages to break above 89 today. so one has to consider this key resistance

https://s14.postimg.org/tex9aeiy9/dollar_02-16-2018.png

[Disoblige]

Selling all JNUG at open. Not worth risk based on US dollar bounce.

[SilverRex]

Gold bullish trigger

as I said, I think if gold can break above 1361.7 it could run away. From experience even with the negative divergence on radar, usually to my knowledge it isnt confirmed unless it breaks a nearby neckline support, so until then. one can still hold onto this count as a sub 1-2 in the works.

also Gold so far is holding up well despite dollar's strong recovery today.

edit: so far gold is reacting to the neckline found support. will see if this could translate into a bullish reversal

https://s14.postimg.org/f9w1mhrmp/gold_02-16-2018_B.png

[SilverRex]

Natgas

no point in count natgas as this beast just goes after swings to the extreme in both directions. I have already mentioned once that it started a huge swing in late 2016 and slowly oscillating smaller and smaller until it got into a congested channel mess, then the swing started to reappear. If the same pattern continues, then the next good risk/reward setup might be down to the 2.3-2.5 area and I wonder if the next swing could generate an even bigger move between 2.3-3.8

I'll be watching this closely

https://s14.postimg.org/ok85q1pht/natgas_02-16-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Verdict is still out

gdx is in a bullish flag channel. either a breakdown or a breakout with another surge

https://s14.postimg.org/pezr9ioc1/gdx_flagging.png

[Red@8]

ASFX

ive got another speculative suggestion. Not sure who played this one back in 2010-2012. was just a penny stock then. one of my failed trades and in 2012 it declared bankruptcy. So I thought it was dead weight. interestingly in the last few months I noticed pp action so I looked it up and apparently the short version was that the company was able to satisfied it's debt obligations and now tries to get out of bankruptcies. If you think about it, why would you do that? I think there may be some sort of value for a debt free shell company that could be acquired or reverse merger to take place. feels like the current price range is being accumulated. I have no crystal ball and not an expert for companies emerging from BK state. Maybe someone here can shed more teaching on this.

I think this makes another good speculative play. throw some beer money at it and see what happens. Be warn though if you are not prepare to lose it all, dont take my advice and jump in blindly with your life savings. this is not what this is about. No matter who is giving trading advice, always analyze for yourself the opportunity and make your own case.

I used to trade this as well. Unfortunately I no longer follow this one.

I do like GGI (Garibaldi resources) currently though.

[SilverRex]

MJ looks pretty weak right now. both ACB and WEED are trading beneath it's descending neckline which is the opposite of a breakout. if we dont see any type of impulsive move say weed back over 28.3 and ACB above 11, it may roll over to at least retest the previous low on Feb 2nd, and may even begin to target the low end of that prior wave 4. that is ACB in the 6s, WEED in the 16s and APH in the 10s. nearly having a similar footprint with bitcoin when it first looked like it bottomed only to form a 3 wave rally off a low and roll over to much lower prices

[SilverRex]

Negative divergence wins. Gold broke the neckline and is pretty bearish at least for the short term.

this neutralizes any immediate bullish momentum and back to the drawing board.

looking at gdx, the sell off is too steep to be marked as wave 4, so either we have a very bearish scenario unfolding 3 waves up and major selloff or 5 wave was completed between feb9-14 and we are in wave iii of c of (II)

https://s14.postimg.org/p3w31oeip/gdx_02-16-2018.png

[SilverRex]

gdx

miners is at a very interesting crossroad. but thanks to the steep drop on friday, as much as it is scary, it becomes more clear that the next move will tell us where she will go. initially was expecting the sell off to be some sort of wave 4 correction. But the sell off was too steep to be classify as one. (e.g. typical wave 4 should only retrace between .238-0.38 of the wave 3 move. .5 is a bit dangerous, and anything more usually entails something else different entirely. so I suspect we either have a very bullish 1-2, 1-2 setup which will require gdx to strongly breakout above 23.22 and trigger a significant rally (technicians will jump on board with a higher high because of the confirmation) or the double rally (as strong as it is) is only just a 3 wave. Remember that 5 waves is the trend and 3 waves mark a correction. That means we have lower lows to come. I dont expect an outright crash, rather a lower low to give us +divergence. the triple support under 21 has been tested so many times should give us confidence)

My personal strategy, since I did reduced my leverage position earlier in the week, I will plan to buy back or even add a bit more if I see price gives that new low under 20.84, or if the bullish breakout occurs, might add back my position above 23.22

in short, we will find out early next week one way or the other

https://s14.postimg.org/ytt49ah7l/gdx_02-17-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Gold

gold looks much better than the miners and it can still be counted as wave 4 as long it holds above 1341 next week. the same 1-2, 1-2 count also applies if we see a higher high which again would trigger a lot of buyers. However if miners do see another wave lower under 20.84, then gold may also give us the same treatment. While I do not prefer this scenario because wave (c) are just scary to watch, I really hope it is already baked in when it hit 1306.8, and the outright strong reversal on feb 14th produced such an impulsive up move, you would think it now has wind sailing behind it. none the less, it is an alternate count that always has a possibility. Dialing down to the hourly chart I would say the first sign of trouble is under 1336

https://s14.postimg.org/vbh4criup/gold_02-17-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Icon

high risk / high reward play

my position is small about 2.5% of my portfolio. so far even with the strong pop it still only has 3 waves. initial thought would be to see a 5th wave breaking out of the down channel. failure to do this may still put this stock at risk of lower lows in some sort of ending 5 wave channel down. which is fine, as depending on if I have extra cash, might add a bit more each time a lower low presents itself. my avg price is 1.34, initial target that one can begin to take profit is to see the gap back fill in the 4s, long term would be a target of 10-15 dollars within 12-24 months and 100+ if you have the gut to hold it until you retire.

One key thing not on this chart, there is massive volume on this uptick, I seriously think something big is about to happen with this one. just dont loose sleep over it.

https://s14.postimg.org/v3thgdi7l/Icon_02-17-2018.png

[SilverRex]

WEED

this sector looked bearish to end last week all having to close below the down trendline, but today it is trying to breakout. if this is a real breakout then MJ shares will run
ACB needs a move back above 11 to do the same

https://s14.postimg.org/j25g8cpgh/weed_02-20-2018.png

[riander5]

Oh its broken out. Lets see wave 3 here

[Vanish3d]

Perhaps NatGas bottomed and is about to run up. Got into UGAZ at ~55

[SilverRex]

gdx

i mention how critical 21.84 this week for GDX is, and price hit exactly 21.84, and now breaking up from the Fed announcement. I added a position in the 13s Jnug hoping this is the current count. 5 up 3 down to 21.84.

moving my mental stop to 21.99 which I will exit all my leverage if this is broken which means we should see a lower low under 20.84

edit: im actually exiting all my leverage right now. dollar looks too strong, completely recover the breakdown.

https://s14.postimg.org/sc9cal0w1/gdx_02-21-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Gold

gold looks much better than the miners and it can still be counted as wave 4 as long it holds above 1341 next week. the same 1-2, 1-2 count also applies if we see a higher high which again would trigger a lot of buyers. However if miners do see another wave lower under 20.84, then gold may also give us the same treatment. While I do not prefer this scenario because wave (c) are just scary to watch, I really hope it is already baked in when it hit 1306.8, and the outright strong reversal on feb 14th produced such an impulsive up move, you would think it now has wind sailing behind it. none the less, it is an alternate count that always has a possibility. Dialing down to the hourly chart I would say the first sign of trouble is under 1336

https://s14.postimg.org/vbh4criup/gold_02-17-2018.png

right now with yesterdays action I am leaning towards gold making a lower wave (c) low. However I do have to be weary that gold despite dollar's strength, is unable to break the Feb 14 major reversal low at 1317. So that can still remain the ultimate line in the sand.

[SilverRex]

Gold

so far gold only has 3 wave up. Cheering for a 5th wave breakout? of course it can fail but I want gold to surprise to the upside.

edit: so gold did produce a 5th wave up but very much still struggling to breakout from the trendline. Seeing how weak the miners are despite gold being up 5-6 bucks may be all the signs we need to wait for lower prices.

https://s14.postimg.org/kj5tg8yyp/gold_3_wave.png

[300havoc]

Hey All,

What kinds of thoughts do you have on ADZ.V? (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADZ.V?p=ADZ.V)

I know it's isn't big dollars, but seeing it's growth is moving up again in line with a similar period last year. It's a Mineral / Mining company. I have money in it already, I'm just thinking of adding a little more to ride what seems to be an upward momentum.

[SilverRex]

gdx

interesting gold down miners up. can this divergence mean anything? the next move is key, I cant help but still holding onto this count for gdx 5 and it tagged 21.68. could be fooling everyone here at the begining stage of another rally. Going to try this again, in Jnug and will be holding this unless gdx takes out 21.68

https://s14.postimg.org/6hgi8u875/gdx_02-23-2018.png

[SilverRex]

BLOC / BLKCF

when it had 5 waves up I sold my position at 1.39 and had bought back at 1.11 because I expected a 3 wave correction. So it is moving pretty good to the latest count. now unless we get some sort of extended 5th wave down which at this level might as well make it a double bottom, I would guess wave 2 should be done.

edit: alt count larger degree the 5 up can still be a sub 4 pointing to 1 more lower low ahead. If price can break above wave (I) here then it should confirm the bottom is in.

using BLKCF charting since BLOC doesnt show up

https://s14.postimg.org/ngdz7mpch/bloc_02-26-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Gold

everyday gold does not break down and give us that lower low under 1306 will begin to morph into some sort of holding, consolidation or flagging pattern. T1? similar to the previous ABC drop but a reversal move pointing to a upside breakout instead.

Im a risk taker sure, jumped back into the miners last week and so far it is holding up well. gdx at 21.68 is my ultimate support follow by a smaller one at 22

https://s14.postimg.org/83u8d8v81/gold_02-26-2018.png

[taemo]

any thoughts on the recent announcement by Dash about going Proof-of-stake?

[SilverRex]

Gold 2018 outlook

this is my current guess. I think gold is in a triangle as mentioned earlier which is a terminal move towards an upside breakout that should get to 1375 but not break above 1386 as this count (black) wave 3 cannot be the smallest in order to remain valid.

I do expect the US dollar to mount a multi month intermediate rally and expect one more lower low to flush all the longs who got in too early. during US dollar's intermediate rally, gold should begin to show underlying strength and simply grind out a correctional structure holding above the ih&s neckline above 1320 at this time. the real breakout should occur after summer or late autumn imo

https://s14.postimg.org/ypajdzc0h/gold_2018_outlook.png

[zhao]

i'm about a month away from where i reset my personal end of year for investment tracking. This last month has been pretty brutal wiping out a lot of profit, so I did a quick assessment of what sectors were the best and worst for me.

Top 3 in order are:
Mining
Retail (surprised at this. I hate retail lol)
MJ

losses (actually only lost in 2 sectors):
Tech (we'll see how this plays out in a month after HS releases some news)
Energy (oil and gas)

[SilverRex]

got out of my Jnug at break even. back to the drawing board. looks like gold wants to give us that wave C under 1306 after all.

[SilverRex]

Hive.v

the bounce in Feb was just another wave 3/4 counter trend. looking for the major bottom somewhere in the 1.5x. Reduce my position and sold at 2.16 last week in anticipation of a lower low

https://s14.postimg.org/5i2njqcup/hive_02-27-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Bloc / Blkcf

so after it tagged the 61% level during this correction, this 5 up and 3 down is looking good so far.

the alt would be a higher high above 1.16 to form a much larger wave 3/4, dont want to see this happen, I think the entire correction for this sector has gone on long enough.

https://s14.postimg.org/3u3i4xecx/bloc_02-27-2018.png

[SilverRex]

Weed

looks weak short term, despite the breakout, it has since fallen back and is currently backtesting the breakout line ACB got under theirs but is trying to recover above it. This is the last support that needs to hold and give a good reversal if there is hope for a higher high in the coming months, not that price couldnt drop lower to the next trading range but the lower and longer this correction drags out the longer it will take to make new highs. the delay in legalization has certainly slow down the hype but over all I am still leaning towards one more higher high this year. APH is quite weak, it never even got up high enough to produce a breakout like ACB and WEED did. the under performance may be a good thing if the sector lights on fire again.

https://s14.postimg.org/qy8kax6y9/weed_02-27-2018.png

[SilverRex]

ICON

well I think it is safe to say we can rule out wave 4 isnt happening, the drop is too steep and so we either have a 1-2, 1-2 (about to breakout) or orange count another large 3/4 and down she goes.

Spec play for me, like 2% of my portfolio so doesnt matter where she goes in the short term, only interested where she will be 12-24 months from now.

https://s14.postimg.org/srbgzbcq9/icon_02-27-2018.png

[SilverRex]

bte

I dont hold any position at the moment but those that still do or care. what ever that mess is from 2.8-4.4 last year, lets just say we had our 5 wave up follow by a major wave 2 down which I think is probably completed. I still expect higher oil places after the current correction is in or may be in. perhaps energy shares will finally move big, a count like this projects to about 7 dollars for wave (III) and about 14 dollars when wave (v) hits. of course it is only a projection if all stars align.

https://s14.postimg.org/ynsu344u9/bte_02-28-2018.png

[civicHB]

what do the technicals say on FB vs AMZN for the the next 6 -12 months?

[SilverRex]

acb

showing this instead of Weed this time, so far a double backtest is holding. now MJ shares are on another attempt to breakout from this multi week funk

https://s14.postimg.org/vw9kcj8wh/acb_02-28-2018.png

[SilverRex]

ABX

one reason why gdx is suffering is partly to due with the under performance in abx, while it isnt all about this company alone none the less it is still a pretty good gauge . I firmly believe that once this one gets going the entire sector will look much different. This final C wave down to 11 is what majority of the wave counters are waiting for.

Those wishing to hold long term or want exposure into this sector, we are coming up with very good entry point.

https://s14.postimg.org/71zpt2bz5/abx_02-28-2018.png