Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bobby_lu]

Not CZM and NAI!

[troyl]

Originally posted by richardchan2002
OMFG everything is red. Deep red.

My poor portfolio :banghead: :cry: :cry:

[bobby_lu]

Originally posted by bobby_lu
Not CZM and NAI!

spoke to soon...red after lunch lol :nut:

[Gainsbarre]

Ugh, 43 out of 44 stocks in my portfolio are down. Only one that's up is Shoppers Drug Mart. :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

[max_boost]

Nice. Everything is down. The slide continues :D
It's not looking pretty for the uraniums. :eek:

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre
Ugh, 43 out of 44 stocks in my portfolio are down. Only one that's up is Shoppers Drug Mart. :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

That's a large portfolio to manage!
I only have six holdings right now, and I'm finding that to be more than enough work.

[djayz]

ouch...even the dollars getting owned :(

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by liquid1010


That's a large portfolio to manage!
I only have six holdings right now, and I'm finding that to be more than enough work.


For sure. I'm looking to shed about half of the holdings (mostly the spec stuff) during the next upswing...hopefully soon!

[badseed]

Originally posted by max_boost
Nice. Everything is down. The slide continues :D
It's not looking pretty for the uraniums. :eek:

Uranium is taking a beating and looks like it will continue to do so. Junior miners may be the way to go for now I think.

[Canmorite]

^ Not the way the Venture is (Isn't) holding up.

[bigbadboss101]

Cash out and put into Forex? Guy I know work with a couple traders with good track records so I might consider that.

[Vr6boi]

Anyone have any thoughts or info on RVX.T?

[liquid1010]

RVX is taking an absolute beating right now!! I stay away from any type of medical companies, but if you can find a bottom it may not be bad.

I'm kicking myself for not jumping into PLMA a week ago. I was talking about it on here, and it's doubled in three days.....

[Rav4Guy]

Upcoming IPO: pure-play Industrial REIT

[troyl]

Got some MLY today. Technicals look good IMO.

[djayz]

Originally posted by troyl
Got some MLY today. Technicals look good IMO.

should of bought the warrants 27% today!

[Gainsbarre]

:guns: :guns: to the people who tanked the market in the last 10 minutes of trading -- was having a decent up day until then. What a wretched week. Only positive is that my Loblaw puts are doing alright...

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre
:guns: :guns: to the people who tanked the market in the last 10 minutes of trading -- was having a decent up day until then. What a wretched week. Only positive is that my Loblaw puts are doing alright...

Good call on the Loblaws puts.... I should have seen that one coming.

I was admittedly wrong last time I said this, but I think next week could be crucial. Mentions of a 10%ish correction have been floating for months.... and if we don't see a positive or at least stable week next week... it could get uglier.

[Gainsbarre]

I'm also liking puts on RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) although I haven't bought them yet. It's another company going through a similar situation as Loblaw -- restructuring a big mess / stock seems overpriced / company is getting slaughtered by its competitiors...

[bigbadboss101]

Did anyone buy LuLu? At least many chicks look NICE in their yoga pants :thumbsup:

[djayz]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Did anyone buy LuLu? At least many chicks look NICE in their yoga pants :thumbsup:

I tried getting in on the ipo but to no avail it was packed solid. Wouldve definately been better than the last ipo i picked up of sentry select primary metals

[Mckenzie]

Originally posted by djayz


I tried getting in on the ipo but to no avail it was packed solid. Wouldve definately been better than the last ipo i picked up of sentry select primary metals

:werd: Not so happy with that one.

And as for the LuLu IPO, I dont think anyone here could have gotten in on that- the underwriters were mostly all the big boys. I inquired as well had no luck.

When did/does it start trading?

I've got faith in that company because once people in the US start seeing how fine an ass can look, to the moon!

[bobby_lu]

Yesterday (Friday)

[Canmorite]

http://investor.lululemon.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=256946

[troyl]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre
I'm also liking puts on RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) although I haven't bought them yet. It's another company going through a similar situation as Loblaw -- restructuring a big mess / stock seems overpriced / company is getting slaughtered by its competitiors...

Instead of buying Put options why dont you just short the stock?

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by troyl


Instead of buying Put options why dont you just short the stock?

Put are nice because everything is quantified in advance. You know your limits, and have a very minimal downside. Worst thing that can happen with a put is that it expires without any value. Going short on a stock leaves you with much more risk.

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by troyl


Instead of buying Put options why dont you just short the stock?


Short selling is very risky -- too risky for my risk profile. I made sure that I could NOT short sell with my account to remove any temptation to do so.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre
I'm also liking puts on RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) although I haven't bought them yet. It's another company going through a similar situation as Loblaw -- restructuring a big mess / stock seems overpriced / company is getting slaughtered by its competitiors...

I havn't had much time to look into their financials at all, but what caused that big run over the past 6 months? The stock has doubled since January... although like you mentiond, they seem like they are starting their slide.

What are your targets for your Put? I was looking at an August Put for with a strike of $25. Cost is .45, so still a lot of room for profit. - *although if you look at the chart following the longer trend, buying an October Put at 22.50 for .65 has huge upside.*

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by liquid1010


I havn't had much time to look into their financials at all, but what caused that big run over the past 6 months? The stock has doubled since January... although like you mentiond, they seem like they are starting their slide.

What are your targets for your Put? I was looking at an August Put for with a strike of $25. Cost is .45, so still a lot of room for profit. - *although if you look at the chart following the longer trend, buying an October Put at 22.50 for .65 has huge upside.*

What really brought RadioShack onto my radar was this brief segment about a month or two ago on Bloomberg Radio (it's even more boring than you think...) At that point, they (RadioShack) was apparently the top performing company on the S&P 500 since January 2007. This was of course after a disasterous 2006 when then-CEO David Edmondson was arrested on DUI and then dismissed when untruths concerning his academic record were uncovered on his resume (oops!).

Apparently the stock has run up because of the appointment of Julian Day as the CEO in July 2006. He was the guy who brought K-Mart back from the brink not too long ago...from Chapter 11 to a successful merger with Sears Roebuck. So it seems that the market likes his track record and I'll admit that his turnaround plans for RadioShack (while basic) make complete sense (basically the common sense stuff you pick up in business school) -- update inventory, focus on top-performing stores and shut down the underperformers, consolidate distribution centres, reduce overhead costs and so on.

However, i personally see a number of problems in the plan. For starters, RadioShack tends to have smaller (and many stand alone) locations than its major competitors Circuit City and Best Buy, who tend to have large "big-box" stores. These larger locations naturally help the competition to beat RadioShack when it comes to overhead costs.

RadioShack actually began expanding into Canada in 2006 under Day's tenure, with a number of stores in the GTA, however, these stores were quickly shut down (see http://www.radioshack.ca/). If you're wondering, RadioShack in the U.S. and the RadioShack stores that we used to have here in Canada (pre 2000 or so before they all converted to "The Source at Circuit City") were not operated by the same company (the RadioShack name was licenced for use in Canada) -- but that's another story.

I guess this brings me to their financials, which in a word, are horrendous. Falling sales / operating revenues and rapidly shrinking net income, diminishing same store sales, and so on...not a pretty picture at all.

Personally I like looking at options that are a little further out (e.g. the Loblaw puts I have don't expire until January 08). I am going to start following the following January 2008 option chains:

http://delayedquotes.cboe.com/options/quote.html?ASSET_CLASS=OPT&ID_OSI=9797001&ID_NOTATION=11190452&FROM_OPTIONS_CHAIN=true


http://delayedquotes.cboe.com/options/quote.html?ASSET_CLASS=OPT&ID_OSI=13081337&ID_NOTATION=13191019&FROM_OPTIONS_CHAIN=true

I just need to run the usual option pricing stuff now to see what the fair value for those options would be. I don't think that a 12 month price target of the low 20s to even the high teens is unreasonable for RadioShack. There will be a lot of pain before the company does turnaround (assuming its survival)...

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre

Personally I like looking at options that are a little further out (e.g. the Loblaw puts I have don't expire until January 08). I am going to start following the following January 2008 option chains:

http://delayedquotes.cboe.com/options/quote.html?ASSET_CLASS=OPT&ID_OSI=9797001&ID_NOTATION=11190452&FROM_OPTIONS_CHAIN=true


http://delayedquotes.cboe.com/options/quote.html?ASSET_CLASS=OPT&ID_OSI=13081337&ID_NOTATION=13191019&FROM_OPTIONS_CHAIN=true

I just need to run the usual option pricing stuff now to see what the fair value for those options would be. I don't think that a 12 month price target of the low 20s to even the high teens is unreasonable for RadioShack. There will be a lot of pain before the company does turnaround (assuming its survival)...

Thanks for the background info, that was very useful!

What do you use to value options? I'm used to working through the pricing models for equities and valuing them using DCF, CNAV, FCF, etc... but I'm still relatively new to options.

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by liquid1010


Thanks for the background info, that was very useful!

What do you use to value options? I'm used to working through the pricing models for equities and valuing them using DCF, CNAV, FCF, etc... but I'm still relatively new to options.


The BS (Black-Scholes) model is still the standard used and is pretty much all you need (although the Greeks can also be useful). The only issue here is accurately estimating the underlying stock's implied volatility. I typically look at the log normal daily returns for the past few years as a starting point, however, the exact time frame you ought to look at really isn't set in stone. If the company is drastically different now than it was a few years ago, it can be tough to find just the right amount of time to go back.

One other thing, both the CBOE and ME post implied volatilities on the option quotes that they provide. It can be useful to compare this number to the volatilities that you calculate.

[Gainsbarre]

Crap, forgot that RadioShack is releasing their Q2 results today. Stock is tanking, of course.

[liquid1010]

It sure would have been nice to get into those puts yesterday. I've been looking at creating a spreadsheet to calculate the BS model.... but just found this:

http://www.numa.com/cgi-bin/numa/calc_op.pl

[Canmorite]

Go to www.888options.com and type in your ticker symbol. It has all the Delta/Gamma, historical volatilty etc. right there.

Unless you're trying to calculate something else...

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre



Short selling is very risky -- too risky for my risk profile. I made sure that I could NOT short sell with my account to remove any temptation to do so.

Not true. If you have a good risk reward ratio with a tight stop the risk is no different. Trading without stops however...

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Go to www.888options.com and type in your ticker symbol. It has all the Delta/Gamma, historical volatilty etc. right there.

Unless you're trying to calculate something else...

Perfect, thanks for the info.

I think Gainsbarre was just referring to the fact that Options as a whole provide a greater deal of security than shorts do.

BTW - Does anyone know of a site that shows the schedule all upcoming earnings reports?

[benyl]

PLE is at 52 week low. What do you all think?

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by liquid1010


BTW - Does anyone know of a site that shows the schedule all upcoming earnings reports?

For U.S. equities (be warned that there's a shitload of info to wade though)

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

I have yet to find one on the internet for Canadian equities. The only place I have found it is in the research area of my TD Waterhouse trading account.

[Gondi Stylez]

Originally posted by benyl
PLE is at 52 week low. What do you all think?

I think it looks promising. I bought 400 shares @ 0.295. If it makes me some cash sweet if not it's only a $100 inital investment :dunno:

[bobby_lu]

Originally posted by Gondi Stylez


I think it looks promising. I bought 400 shares @ 0.295. If it makes me some cash sweet if not it's only a $100 inital investment :dunno:

lol I hope you didnt pay $29 commission and the shares end up costing 0.37

thank god for 9.99

[ShOwOfF]

lol, no kidding...even at 9.99 you're paying a 10% fee!

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by liquid1010


Perfect, thanks for the info.

I think Gainsbarre was just referring to the fact that Options as a whole provide a greater deal of security than shorts do.

BTW - Does anyone know of a site that shows the schedule all upcoming earnings reports?

I belive stockhouse.com has a daily e-mail with upcoming earnings dates.

[CaptainReboot]

Does anybody invest in OTC stocks? Is there a good online brokerage that will let me do that?

[Euro838]

Originally posted by Mckenzie


:werd: Not so happy with that one.

And as for the LuLu IPO, I dont think anyone here could have gotten in on that- the underwriters were mostly all the big boys. I inquired as well had no luck.

When did/does it start trading?

I've got faith in that company because once people in the US start seeing how fine an ass can look, to the moon!

I was thinking of picking some up at US$30 as there's some good upside potential. I know there's a lot of girls wearing this stuff but I can't believe how many guys are wearing it too!

[Gondi Stylez]

Originally posted by bobby_lu


lol I hope you didnt pay $29 commission and the shares end up costing 0.37

thank god for 9.99



Originally posted by ShOwOfF
lol, no kidding...even at 9.99 you're paying a 10% fee!

$29 WOAH! I have 9.99 which is still anal rape but not many other choices....

[bobby_lu]

Originally posted by Gondi Stylez





$29 WOAH! I have 9.99 which is still anal rape but not many other choices....

LOL, even 9.99 if you only buy 400 shares at 0.295...it costs you 0.32 a share , and another 9.99 to see, so it basically has to go up to .35 for you to break even :nut:

[Gondi Stylez]

Originally posted by bobby_lu


LOL, even 9.99 if you only buy 400 shares at 0.295...it costs you 0.32 a share , and another 9.99 to see, so it basically has to go up to .35 for you to break even :nut:

valid point.... but i have read some good reviews so lets hope for the best..... hahaha

God damn bobby_lu making me regret my choice....

[bobby_lu]

Originally posted by Gondi Stylez


valid point.... but i have read some good reviews so lets hope for the best..... hahaha

God damn bobby_lu making me regret my choice....

Haha whatever, if youre buying 400 shares youre obviously still new/learning so its not that big of a deal, or not alot of money to worry about.

Just buy a couple thousand more shares and average down, of course :nut:

[Gondi Stylez]

Originally posted by bobby_lu


Haha whatever, if youre buying 400 shares youre obviously still new/learning so its not that big of a deal, or not alot of money to worry about.

Just buy a couple thousand more shares and average down, of course :nut:

Well I'm not that new. I've been investing for 3-4 years but I was bored and went for this.... we shall see

[bobby_lu]

Originally posted by Gondi Stylez


Well I'm not that new. I've been investing for 3-4 years but I was bored and went for this.... we shall see

hah, ok.. good luck !

[liquid1010]

I heard something interesting last night... so I thought I would share on the boards. Supposedly the month of July has been an "outside month" for the DJIA; which basically mean higher highs, and lower lows that the previous period. In essence, just stating that it has been a volatile month.

With the said, the commentary stated that these "outside months", which are supposedly quite rare, tend to often reverse the prevailing long-term trend. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but needless to say we have been in a good upward trend since 2003.

For those who trade mini-futures (Canmorite)... what are the symbols?

[sputnik]

Originally posted by benyl
PLE is at 52 week low. What do you all think?

There are going to be a LOT of shares hitting their 52 week low in the next few weeks.

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by sputnik


There are going to be a LOT of shares hitting their 52 week low in the next few weeks.

Really? I'm thinking (and of course hoping) that the worst is over now. I haven't come across any real news the past few weeks to justify this big selloff -- we've all known about the subprime mortgage problems since the start of this year, and DBRS came out today saying that the mortgage woes in the U.S. will have little to no affect of the Canadian banks. Dow did stage a big rally in the last half-hour of trading today, so hopefully more positive things are ahead?

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre

Really? I'm thinking (and of course hoping) that the worst is over now. I haven't come across any real news the past few weeks to justify this big selloff -- we've all known about the subprime mortgage problems since the start of this year, and DBRS came out today saying that the mortgage woes in the U.S. will have little to no affect of the Canadian banks. Dow did stage a big rally in the last half-hour of trading today, so hopefully more positive things are ahead?

One reason would be interest rates. With speculation that we could see a continued rising IR's, that puts a damper on the markets as a whole.


With Oil hitting insane highs, and Nuclear Power becomming a "touchy" issue... I'm looking at going long other energy sources such as solar power. Anybody have any trade suggestions? Currently I'm looking at picking-up ESLR with some long-term (Mar-08) calls.

[Rav4Guy]

New Industrial REIT... modeled after Summit REIT which just got bought out by ING. Look for it to start trading mid-August. Tightly held by institution at IPO launch.

PIRET (Pure Industrial Real Estate Trust) AAR.UN

[djayz]

Uranium is getting spanked :(

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by djayz
Uranium is getting spanked :(

The short sellers came in two weeks ago on Cameco's stock (CCO.TO) betting that uranium prices were headed lower.

Follow the smart money.

[djayz]

Originally posted by Canmorite


The short sellers came in two weeks ago on Cameco's stock (CCO.TO) betting that uranium prices were headed lower.

Follow the smart money.

:werd: buy more :D

[kaput]

.

[ShOwOfF]

I've moved all of my holdings into fixed income until the market turns around a little...i would suspect the market to settle and hopefully see more green come October.

[rc2002]

Are you kidding? The October sell-off is going to be nuts this year.

[Schwa]

Please elaborate?

[bigboom]

Originally posted by Schwa
Please elaborate?

black october...historically you will see a selloff in october due to a mentality from the october stock market crash

[Canmorite]

Stock market seasonality. Some months are statistically worse then others (bear markets).

The summer is known for being slow (Not this summer) and winters are known for being the most active (fund managers are back from holidays).

[Rav4Guy]

To think that there's a seasonality allows people to be sucked into this whole "sell-off times". What happens is that people will start to sell off before these times creating a shift in these periods. I'm not denying the fact that there are upturns and downturns but market psychology has a lot to do with it.

People panic and when fear hits the mass crowd, everyone starts to liquidate their positions creating a short term downward trend. It's like herding cows into the slaughterhouse. Psychology once again.

Fund managers are long term investors and look at these periods as buying periods. It all comes down to, are you an investor or a trader?

Happy trading.

[max_boost]

Anyone look at their portfolios today? Wow, just WOW. :eek: :thumbsdow :rofl: :banghead: :nut: :dunno: :barf: :cry:

[djayz]

Originally posted by max_boost
Anyone look at their portfolios today? Wow, just WOW. :eek: :thumbsdow :rofl: :banghead: :nut: :dunno: :barf: :cry:

OH MY! :eek: haha yet Lululemon is still pulling a 15% gain ...wow


Some things are screaming buy right now. DML under $10!!! guess its time to start counting that jar of change haha

[Gainsbarre]

Hm...my order for Leon's Furniture (TSX: LNF) just got filled today...well partially at least.

Like another one of my holdings (Shoppers Drug Mart) I plan on holding this one for 20+ years -- it is Canada's market leader in their respective industry (both), has a very strong brand image (esp. Leon's), sells very high margin items (cosmetics / beauty products / generic drugs / furniture), consistently increasing earnings & dividends, franchises some stores (Leon's) and sells products that will always be needed....definitely two stocks that I am comfortable being in for the long haul.

Personally I am hoping to adopt more of a Warren Buffett approach to investing and try to limit my exposure to the spec. plays -- hence the investments in SC and LNF.

Couldn't help but notice my uranium stocks tanking as of late (especially UEX). :( Hope this is only temporary.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Rav4Guy
To think that there's a seasonality allows people to be sucked into this whole "sell-off times". What happens is that people will start to sell off before these times creating a shift in these periods. I'm not denying the fact that there are upturns and downturns but market psychology has a lot to do with it.

People panic and when fear hits the mass crowd, everyone starts to liquidate their positions creating a short term downward trend. It's like herding cows into the slaughterhouse. Psychology once again.



It's all Psychology.

[Rav4Guy]

^ thanks. Psychological factors not only affect the markets but it seems to have an effect on people's response posts as well.

FYI... Jim Cramer is recommending a buy on LuLuLemon (LLL-T) and is comparing it to Under Armour (UA)

[Canmorite]

Lulu will be huge if the americans take to it. Once they see how all their old wrinkly asses look great in a pair of these pants, they will be snapped up.

Futures falling apart this morning :eek:

[natejj]

This is going to a brutal day...

[Gainsbarre]

Home Depot is way down because they're getting less than what they expected on their supply unit and are reducing the price on their tender offer? WTF?

Oh well, I'm sticking with it. Home Depot and Wal-Mart (two of my U.S. holdings) are poised to take over the world! Or at least get a good chunk of the Chinese market share....

[Mckenzie]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre
Home Depot is way down because they're getting less than what they expected on their supply unit and are reducing the price on their tender offer? WTF?

Oh well, I'm sticking with it. Home Depot and Wal-Mart (two of my U.S. holdings) are poised to take over the world! Or at least get a good chunk of the Chinese market share....

Didn't they just open up a store in India?

I know their attempt in Germany failed miserably- people didnt like the cheap feel to the store and everything it offered.

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by Mckenzie


Didn't they just open up a store in India?

I know their attempt in Germany failed miserably- people didnt like the cheap feel to the store and everything it offered.

Yes, both points are correct. Although I think the failure in Germany was mainly a result of poor locations and high costs, with Wal-mart not being able to exploit workers like they do here in North America -- apparently the labour costs were far more than what they're used to and it cut into the bottom line.

As for the store in India, I am optimistic on that one. Although most of the country is still dirt poor, I like how they're establishing a presence now before the growth (hopefully) really takes off.

[dmtx]

on a really bloody market like today, anyone shorting any stock(s)?

[max_boost]

Wow.....when will the uranium free fall end? lol

[max_boost]

Thinking of taking some positions in

PNP Pinetree Capital
SXR Uranium
BWR Breakwater
ZAO Zaio Corp

Thoughts?

[rc2002]

I bought BWR at $3.50. I wish I had money to average down in that stock.

[Rat Fink]

.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by richardchan2002
I bought BWR at $3.50. I wish I had money to average down in that stock. My average cost on that stock was in the $2.10 range and I sold at $2.40 for a small profit. Been kicking myself as I watched the stock go up. I've been waiting for a chance to buy back in, this must be it :D

[bigbadboss101]

I have PTU, average cost $1.20.

SRU $1.50

BWR $3.41

AOS $ 2.15

As you can see, all down.

[djayz]

Ill definately be averaging down on PTU and ROK. DML wont really be an average down but at this level a couple thousand shares added wouldnt be bad :D

Nothing has really changed in the uranium world...theres still demand and no supply and its only going to get worse so I only see this as a sale....at the wrong time...i have no money!!!! hah

[Canmorite]

I wouldn't own anything on the TSX right now. The only Canadian holdings I have right now are shorts.

Even the venture is in a clearly defined downtrend, with lots of room to go with metal prices coming off and Oil down ~$4 from it's highs.

I say we hit 2750 on the Venture.

I know, I know, charts :rolleyes:

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/2808/venture090807yw8.gif

[dmtx]

i have never traded anything on TSX, although I have bought a a few canadian stocks via US exchanges. I just find it easier to keep up with the US market because of the amount of coverage...

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by dmtx
i have never traded anything on TSX, although I have bought a a few canadian stocks via US exchanges. I just find it easier to keep up with the US market because of the amount of coverage...

RobTv does a lot for the Canadian markets. I agree though, there is more coverage in the US. Especially with today's and recent moves to the downside.

[Canmorite]

Markets getting pwnt. Once again. Short ES and NQ all morning.

Sorry to hear about BWR.TO...brutal.

[Rat Fink]

.

[dmtx]

this is quite a shake off.... a lot of stocks are really cheap... but then again, cheap stocks at this kind of market is not really cheap...

[Canmorite]

'Cheap' is a scary word. They're cheap compared to a month ago, but there is always more potential downside. Wait for things to stop and at least stabalize.

[dmtx]

Originally posted by Canmorite


RobTv does a lot for the Canadian markets. I agree though, there is more coverage in the US. Especially with today's and recent moves to the downside.

yeah, i used to watch RobTV. I probably haven't tuned to that channel for more than a year now. As most of the folks here, trading is not my full time profession so internet is my only source during the day and when I get home I try to tune with CNCB.... at which time RobTV was like hosting workoplis or carreer kind of shows. These sources (internet and TV) are my ears about the stock market....

[dmtx]

Originally posted by Canmorite
'Cheap' is a scary word. They're cheap compared to a month ago, but there is always more potential downside. Wait for things to stop and at least stabalize.

exactly, I don't buy on dips anymore as it caused me in the past in a lot of situations....

[roopi]

Today was a buying day for me. Been sitting on a fair bit of cash for a while and I spent most of it today.

[liquid1010]

I just came back from vacation today, and didn't look at the market the entire week; and it's UGLY.

Someone mentioned above that the TSX gets less coverage which can make it tougher to keep up. Although the lack of coverage makes US markets easier to keep up to date with, the CDN markets provide a greater opportunity for mispriced securities.

I am really hesitant to step into anything right now. IMHO, the US economy is in for a beating over the next while (longer term).

[dmtx]

Originally posted by liquid1010
I just came back from vacation today, and didn't look at the market the entire week; and it's UGLY.

Someone mentioned above that the TSX gets less coverage which can make it tougher to keep up. Although the lack of coverage makes US markets easier to keep up to date with, the CDN markets provide a greater opportunity for mispriced securities.

I am really hesitant to step into anything right now. IMHO, the US economy is in for a beating over the next while (longer term).

Nahhh, if the US market stinks, it has it's bad effects globally. Europe is down and so is Asia. Canada being shaken of as we can see from the TSX S&P. The US and Canadian S&P is just trailing each other... see the index:

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=%5EGSPTSE&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC

and on the same note, it is expected that Bank of Canada is increasing the rate NEXT MONTH because of the US subprime concerns. Here's part of the article:

"The risk to the Bank of Canada's expected rate hike next month is a result of market turbulence sparked by widening fallout from bad credit in the U.S. subprime mortgage sector."

taken from

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/11082007/6/finance-canadian-dollar-ends-credit-fears-lessened.html


On the otherhand, all my RRSPs are all canadian. I let the fund managers do the research because they have all the resources to tap on.... I hope they know what they're doing because I don't know what the hell I'm doing..... :rofl:

[liquid1010]

I think you misunderstood my comment, although the info you posted above is quite good. By saying the the US economy is going south, I was not implying that the TSX would be a better platform for investing; they definitely do fluctuate in tandem. With that said, I would prefer CDN to US equities right now.

What worries me right now is how little global confidence there is in the US Dollar. It is considered the benchmark/anchor of much of the worlds economy.... and it's starting to crack under the strain of a seriously debt-laden country ($24,000 per US citizen, 7 trillion total), and the constant spending and trade deficit. IMHO Europe and the Euro may be making a big comeback in the coming years, as people continue to lose confidence in the US dollar.

[dmtx]

Ahhhh, scope of economy vs market.... for some reason when somebody mentions about economy, I always think about the market... like US econmy is down and Canadian economy is up but both markets are down.... got yah!

[Canmorite]

I posted this on another forum, but I'll put it here too.


With all these subprime worries I have been watching the $DJUSFN (US Financials Index) for a short entry. It broke down about two weeks ago, but I was waiting for a return rally to go short since I missed it the first time.

Here's the breakdown:

http://img131.imageshack.us/img131/9492/djusfnvd3.png

After I saw this, I knew GS and BSC had been getting beaten up, and that I wanted to buy puts on these two. I didn't want to buy puts here but where could I find a good entry?

Then as I was checking this index again, I came across this:

http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/9632/djusfn100807we5.png

It was right up against previous support from the end of March (support turned into resistance) and right up against the 20 day SMA.

Just before the market closed (August 8th) I bought 5 GPYTP.O Aug 07 puts for $2.30 on GS and 5 BVDTA.O Aug 07 puts for $2.00 on BSC.

Yesterday I closed the GS puts for $4.60 and closed the BSC puts for $3.70. (This was NOT live trading, just a strategy tester).

Thoughts or comments on this? Maybe theres a way to play this better that I'm not seeing or if someone does it differently feel free to chime in...

[liquid1010]

That sounds like a good way to play that.... I like it, and the charts seem to strongly agree with you (support to resistance reversal). Also looking at the Bullish Percent Index for Financials, it has taken a real bounce this week. BPFINA.

If you don't mind, keep posting things like this... as It's a great way for others (ie: me) to learn more about the technical side of things.

[rc2002]

Originally posted by max_boost
My average cost on that stock was in the $2.10 range and I sold at $2.40 for a small profit. Been kicking myself as I watched the stock go up. I've been waiting for a chance to buy back in, this must be it :D

Did you get back in at $2.30? It's at $2.74 as of right now. Could've made almost 20%!