Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Neil4Speed]

I am kind of new to this, I figured I better stick to the industries I know well (one of which is the clothing industry), as far as up and comers go. I like the looks of two new brands - Taverniti So, and William Rast, progresive excellent quality premium denim designs and in the case of the latter with good celebrity backing (Justin Timberlake owns half of William Rast and has some strong consulting advice from J. Lindeberg).

Taverniti is owned by Blue Holdings Inc. and is currently trading at 0.33 a share with a total volume of ~12k.

Now here is my question, If you add it up, doesn't this put the total invested cash at somewhere around ~4000? Thats not very much at all! How does that work?

Same goes for William Rast which is under PEOPLE'S LIBERATION, trading at about the same price with a ZERO volume apparently.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PPLB.OB

Anyways, any ideas or input?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Neil4Speed
I am kind of new to this, I figured I better stick to the industries I know well (one of which is the clothing industry), as far as up and comers go. I like the looks of two new brands - Taverniti So, and William Rast, progresive excellent quality premium denim designs and in the case of the latter with good celebrity backing (Justin Timberlake owns half of William Rast and has some strong consulting advice from J. Lindeberg).

Taverniti is owned by Blue Holdings Inc. and is currently trading at 0.33 a share with a total volume of ~12k.

Now here is my question, If you add it up, doesn't this put the total invested cash at somewhere around ~4000? Thats not very much at all! How does that work?

Same goes for William Rast which is under PEOPLE'S LIBERATION, trading at about the same price with a ZERO volume apparently.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PPLB.OB

Anyways, any ideas or input?

My idea and input would be unless you have an insider tip or a crystal ball, I would stay away from those stocks.

If there is no daily volume in a stock it means there is no interest in it. So when you try to sell your shares there won't be any bids there to buy them and you're going to get screwed. ie illiquid


Stick to stocks that have a daily volume that averages at least in the hundreds of thousands so you can get in and out easily. ie liquid

[Pacman]

Originally posted by Neil4Speed


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PPLB.OB

Anyways, any ideas or input?

I would stay far away until it gets listed on a bigger exchange. Trading OTC stocks are risky and sketchy.

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by broken_legs


My idea and input would be unless you have an insider tip or a crystal ball, I would stay away from those stocks.

If there is no daily volume in a stock it means there is no interest in it. So when you try to sell your shares there won't be any bids there to buy them and you're going to get screwed. ie illiquid


Stick to stocks that have a daily volume that averages at least in the hundreds of thousands so you can get in and out easily. ie liquid

Hey there!

Thanks very much for the input. So who is it that caps the volume of shares being traded? Is it within the company? Saying X percentage of the company will be publicly traded resulting in X number of shares?

Lastly, with a company with Peoples Liberation, why wouldn't Justin Timberlake take 1 hours worth of earnings and invest it into his own company to create some hype or interest?

I will keep the high daily volume in mind, thanks!

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Neil4Speed


Hey there!

Thanks very much for the input. So who is it that caps the volume of shares being traded? Is it within the company? Saying X percentage of the company will be publicly traded resulting in X number of shares?

Lastly, with a company with Peoples Liberation, why wouldn't Justin Timberlake take 1 hours worth of earnings and invest it into his own company to create some hype or interest?

I will keep the high daily volume in mind, thanks!

Basically what im trying to say is no one cares about your stocks or wants to own them. It's a crap shoot, they may be great companies but thats doesnt really mean much if the market doesnt notice them or care about or like them.

as far as your other questions, i found google to be a great resource:



how the stock market works (http://www.google.ca/search?client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&channel=s&hl=en&q=how+stock+market+works&meta=&btnG=Google+Search)

Look this stuff up
bid, ask, options, warrants, market maker, volume, shares outstanding, price/earnings ratio, etc... etc..

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Basically what im trying to say is no one cares about your stocks or wants to own them. It's a crap shoot, they may be great companies but thats doesnt really mean much if the market doesnt notice them or care about or like them.

as far as your other questions, i found google to be a great resource:



how the stock market works (http://www.google.ca/search?client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&channel=s&hl=en&q=how+stock+market+works&meta=&btnG=Google+Search)

Look this stuff up
bid, ask, options, warrants, market maker, volume, shares outstanding, price/earnings ratio, etc... etc..


Haha, thank you for your response albeit a bit blunt!

I appreciate the link, I will look it over in detail.

Cheers

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by broken_legs



ZING!


Theres another storm in the gulf, but its not a big deal and oil just sold off 5 dollars in a matter or minutes!

It broke through 120, so technically the next level for oil should be 117. Dow just jumped up 80 points in about 15 minutes!

Visa is gettin is groove back haha

nice I kinda knew oil bubble has ran its course short term. I'm waiting for oil to dip to 100-110 area that seems to have the heaviest support level on record if you look the charts.

I hope visa/Ma will have moved 15-20% before that happens so I can divert all my being into oil and hold it as long as it could in USO. I'll be set when oil climbs back to new heights and beyond within a year or two.

But given my analysis, the US currency index is looking like a breakout to me, couple with oil and gold dropping and continously breaking new lows technically. US equity short term is headed for a good rebound, then it could drop again quickly

Go Visa/Ma

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilverRex


nice I kinda knew oil bubble has ran its course short term. I'm waiting for oil to dip to 100-110 area that seems to have the heaviest support level on record if you look the charts.

I hope visa/Ma will have moved 15-20% before that happens so I can divert all my being into oil and hold it as long as it could in USO. I'll be set when oil climbs back to new heights and beyond within a year or two.

But given my analysis, the US currency index is looking like a breakout to me, couple with oil and gold dropping and continously breaking new lows technically. US equity short term is headed for a good rebound, then it could drop again quickly

Go Visa/Ma

So yeah... 200 point bounce in the DOW this morning with oil dropping and ahead of the Fed Interest rate announcement. I wonder what affect thats going to have on thing...

If you look at the chart of the dow it is was wedging out a bit there and had to make a big move up or down.

But V and MA are just putting along and actually selling off into this rally and low volume too!:barf:

But the uptrend in lows hasnt been broken yet

So.......? I gotta turn off the tv, sht my laptop and relax for a bit haha

[SilverRex]

ok so oil inventory up and pusing price down further, technically nothing is holding it back to hit 110 that is a given, 110 will be the 1st support. I'm hoping it will crack and head to 100 at least so I can scoup up some USO stock at 80

meanwhile, Visa still holding its head above the water, continuely testing the trendline established from 44, 66, 67, 69 and now 71.5

and MA is also treading water holding just alittle above its 200moving average.

to be frank, this is do or die for these two stock, a break could be scary as Visa will fall quickly to 60-65 and MA to 200 support. But this is also the place to be if there is any gas left in them.

hopefully they hold and if they do, Visa will test 80 and MA to test 270

krossing my fingers now

[broken_legs]

^^ Agreed


A little disappointing that these stocks didn't participate much in the rally. Hopefully thats not an indication of things to come!

[Beerking]

Originally posted by SilverRex
meanwhile, Visa still holding its head above the water, continuely testing the trendline established from 44, 66, 67, 69 and now 71.5



to be frank, this is do or die for these two stock, a break could be scary as Visa will fall quickly to 60-65 and MA to 200 support. But this is also the place to be if there is any gas left in them.

hopefully they hold and if they do, Visa will test 80 and MA to test 270

krossing my fingers now

I have options in VISa and I have been watching them closely since I bought in. It was exciting at first, but it did hit a high of $89, but thrn slowly stumbled back down. I hope it has the same trend line that MA took.

[SilverRex]

now after talking to a good friend of mine, I am convinced that the US rally will be short lived. According to him, there is still a 3rd wave bear trend coming up, and this would be the killer, it would shake out many people. And before that happens, the currently rebound will also be difficult to gauge because prior to the 3rd bear wave, rebounds become lesser sustaining.

because of this, I will watch Visa/MA very closely, if Visa cloese below 70.00 and MA below 230 I will exit all my position.

Even if they hold, I will take my profit 78/250 and wait on the side line.

I rather get in on the absolutely deal of the century, then to be wrong and stuck.

Oil continues to fall, I suspect we will see a good rebound at 110 dollars, so I may try to catch the momentum here, after that I will wait for 90-100 oil price and go long term.

Patient,

just when the world announced the equity market is dead, volume will be low and everyone is scared to buy any stock. Thats when we accumlate for long term profit.

[broken_legs]

Something tells me V is done for a while.

I should have played RIMM like I was talking about. September options have more than quadrupled that I was looking at since I mentioned it :banghead:

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Something tells me V is done for a while.

I should have played RIMM like I was talking about. September options have more than quadrupled that I was looking at since I mentioned it :banghead:

Yes, RIMM was one of the first companies I inveseted in when I got started. I like the look of how the new Blackberry Bold is going to do.

[Canmorite]

S&P 500

http://img384.imageshack.us/img384/9496/080708bc4.gif

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite
S&P 500

http://img384.imageshack.us/img384/9496/080708bc4.gif


I called the jump in the dow the last two days (in my head to myself) see jpeg I was going to post on the weekend...
http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/DJIA.jpg



It was wedging out nicely. I thing we have some more upside before the next major correction (200 points is normal now haha)

If oil keeps dropping I think the DOW will test that 11,700 and probably break it.

[broken_legs]

Well were almost there...

Oil is back in the crapper haha

[SilverRex]

interesting Visa/MA had me scared for a bit.

I exit 30% of my position before close to be safe and glad I did and didnt.

what really happen was even though MA 200day moving average broke last night, Visa was nearly testing theirs this morning, so I guess both had to test their moving average.

couple with the fact its olympic day opening. the 90k ATM and visa sponsorship in China may move some investor

I k now long term visa will win, but mid term I am still convince the market is headed for a 3rd wave lower, perhaps DOW to retest 10000 level.

in the mean time I will wait for a good exit right now

then all eyes will be on USO

my first pick would be to take a position when oil dips to 110 there should be a good rally there. but will be short lived.

then for longer term I will load up the sack at 100 and double it up if it dips to 90

gold might be worth buying too for long term if it can dip below 800/ounce

the stupidest thing for me to regret is that USD/CAD is now at 1.06+, man I had my eyes at 1.07 when it was at par. but i chickend out. or else I would have tripled my holdings. yeah, blame it on Visa, really I was relocating my funds. still

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by broken_legs



I called the jump in the dow the last two days (in my head to myself) see jpeg I was going to post on the weekend...
http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/DJIA.jpg



It was wedging out nicely. I thing we have some more upside before the next major correction (200 points is normal now haha)

If oil keeps dropping I think the DOW will test that 11,700 and probably break it.

http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/4104/080808ks8.gif

Bam. Needs to hold 1283 for a confirmation. Bear market rally or a new leg upwards? :dunno:

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Canmorite


http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/4104/080808ks8.gif

Bam. Needs to hold 1283 for a confirmation. Bear market rally or a new leg upwards? :dunno:

If there's any sanity in the world based on fundamentals, it will be a bear run. I'm not too sure that will be the case, but bear runs drop on avg about 29%. I believe we are at 20-21% right now.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Canmorite]

If we see a re-test of 1283 and it holds strongly, watch out. Shorts will get squeezed harder then a bachelor at a rub & tug.

Kinda like what happened to thoes who were long oil and short the dollar.

[SilverRex]

welp looks like Visa/MA finally got out of their slump now I must hold my emotions together and exit soon

the only thing I know is, we are like I have said before this market could be headed to a 3rd wave bear trend and before this happens the market will be extremely volatile, making every rally and dips unpredictable. therefore I would be taking quick profit.

Take advantage of this up and down market while you can and hold on to your funds until a massive market exodus, then we look at value plays for the long hual.

in the mean time,

get ready!

oil is about to hit 110 and that means time to play USO, currently at around 92.50,

I will begin buying when it dips to 90 and I will try play the range 90-100 until it breaks lower.

ultimately my long term will be to buy in at 70-80.

[SilverRex]

wwwooo

oil at 113

almost there, stay on target.

when it hits 110

time to buy oil for short term profit

gold at 842 is interesting, now at 835 and dropping fast

i will be taking aposition with AUY at around 9.34

[broken_legs]

Whoa! V is making some moves... Everyone still in? Taking some off the table yet?

I thinks the market is going UP higher before it goes down lower for the next week or so anyways

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Whoa! V is making some moves... Everyone still in? Taking some off the table yet?

I thinks the market is going UP higher before it goes down lower for the next week or so anyways


its going to be harder and harder to gauge the market, considering oil should hit a near term bottom quite soon, I suspect rise in oil will hurt the market. so I have exited all my visa/MA holdings for now.

and looking to buy/sell oil/gold stock for al ittle bit

[SilverRex]

wow AUY complete reversal,

bought at 9.34, sold just now at 9.92

I will wait for another day :)

[Beerking]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Whoa! V is making some moves... Everyone still in? Taking some off the table yet?

I thinks the market is going UP higher before it goes down lower for the next week or so anyways

Haven't touched my V shares yet, *sits and waites patiently*

[SilverRex]

get ready oil falling back to 113

short term rebound at 110

my eyes are glue to 90 USO

[broken_legs]

Holy Crap....


ANYONE SEE TIMINCO THIS MORNING????

[SilverRex]

nvda is about to announce their results

lets hope their guidence is on track, then short term and long term this stock should move

[SilverRex]

nice nvda shot up 13% after hours

:) bought at 11.07

I will try and see if it can touch 13 and take my profits

[broken_legs]

So I see the dow showing a bit of support at the trend line.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/DJIA_Aug13.jpg



I also RIMM has traded back down to its trend line:

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/RIMM_Aug_13.jpg



I'm into some September Options on RIMM today for a quick flip as it hits 130+ again

[SilverRex]

yes im out of nvda at 12.85 though I feel it has enough momentum to ride to 13-15 but I wont be greedy as I got in at 11.00

now I wait, just kuz the market is quite volatile

MA looks like it is ready to pop to 240-260, I may get in for a quick play if it can hit 230 once more. its been closing above its 200day moving average for some time now. so its getting more safe that is short term bottom is in.

With DOW and Nasdaq hovering around its moving average, it can turn on a dim so I will wait to fight another day
plus just as I see it Gold completely rebounded off its .5 resistance, I hope it can break 805 and head to 750 which is the current trendline and .6 retracement then I will look at picking up some gold stock again

[SilverRex]

ok interesting day on the market.

DOW looks poise to move to test 11800 with i ts double bottom on daily chart.

Nasdaq currently has a chance to close above its 200 moving day.

I have got back in nvda at 12.91 as it has quite the momentum if nasdaq breaks out

and nvda could easily hit 14-15 within days.

so finger crossed.

technically MA/VISA is ready to breakout, I bought some MA, I dont think I will see 230 today again, so I got in at 234. a break above 240 will put this into 250-260

hopefully these two stock will be my short term trade until oil hits 110

oil is breaking down again good. I want to see 750-780 price because that is the last retracment + trendline support then I will feel that much safer buying AUY and hold for a bit

[SilverRex]

boy could oil hit its freakin 200 day already.

get ready to buy USO, I'm updating my entry at 89

Surprisingly but expected Gold tanker below 800 a few technical elements has been satisfied, downward project from previously high to low is met. Gold touched off its .6 retracement (near term), currently just bounced off 20 dollars off its yearly trendline.

so do I think short term gold has bottomed. I think so,

lets see if Im lucky, I hope to get in on AUY and hope because of the drop people will push it lower before it heads higher, as gold price buying seem to picked up again.

I'm looking at 9.34-9.50 would definately get my attention to enter. Come on AUY.

if both auy and USO triggers,

I will most likely have to sell MA and NVDA, while it looks like nvda is set to move higher again today I may close my position to take my profit. because once it gets near 14-15 the run may be getting to an end.

Mastercard/visa is ready (chart wise) to breakout 10% and I hope they do it today.

[djayz]

What do you do for a living SilverRex?

I posts are quite informative so keep them coming!

[SilverRex]

I have a full time job at a tech company, trading stock on my free time

[SilverRex]

anyway having nasdaq just went dead after breakout does not look good in my books, so im out nvda and MA still couldnt break 240.

Doesnt matter, as I'm in gold and oil now.

[djayz]

Ahh good stuff...you seem to post a lot during market hours, do you trade from work?

We all do it so don't feel bad :rofl:

[liquid1010]

I wish I had the time to do that!!

[Canmorite]

I hate OEX days. Soooo slow and boring. Fridays are the worst to trade too :nut:

[SilverRex]

oh finally MA broke out of its funk and is trading above its resistance 240

now it has much more chance of hitting 250-260 soon. Oh well I have already moved into gold and oil

I hear from good source, oil will touch 90 dollars. So I have to be careful playing intraday.

anyways keep your eyes open on china, as their index has fallen dramatically this year from 6000 to now what 2300?, how low can they go? given China's enormous growth and potential, if their index gets near 1500-1700 it would signal great long term investment.

so I will keep myself looking at CAF/FXI ETF funds when its ready.

[fluid]

Well i have been reading some of these posts and im starting to follow some stocks, the thing is there is way too much of them...

Just wondering if anybody wants to name a few they are investing in/following; just so i can slowly start to watch some stocks to get used to it, and then move on to more by myself

Any info/thoughts can be included if any of you want:thumbsup:

thanks in advance

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by fluid
Well i have been reading some of these posts and im starting to follow some stocks, the thing is there is way too much of them...

Just wondering if anybody wants to name a few they are investing in/following; just so i can slowly start to watch some stocks to get used to it, and then move on to more by myself

Any info/thoughts can be included if any of you want:thumbsup:

thanks in advance

If you want to invest in junior stocks you need to read the billboards, have an insider tip, subscribe to a newsletter or do lots of research.

If you want to invest on the big board, start reading the financial news. Try and figure out what the market is doing/might do/could do/wont do and look for the sectors that stand to benefit. Once you've identified some sectors for your investment thesis then look for the individual stocks in those sectors. IE look for the best of breed, not the crappy speculative stock.

If you invest by blindly following people on a bulletin board (ie beyond) you're probably going to lose your money.

[bigbadboss101]

Beyond is not bad (except KappaSigma), be very careful will stockhouse etc.

[bigbadboss101]

Rex, what are you watching today?

[SilverRex]

^

im watching gold, in fact im all in gold

technically gold is due for a correction and it just broke out of a downtrend which was pushing it lower each day,
thankfully the support at 790 has been strong lately

and now if it can get thru 800 and hold, I see gold running back up to 830-850

i was playing oil for a bit, but I realize there are too many people shorting oil now and the 200day around 111 maynot hold, I rather wait until it dips to 100 or even 90 for the great entry.

go Gold go

im playing AUY and if gold can reach 830, AUY can break out of 11 and touch 12. My target is at 12 dollars

Mastercard had an upgrade today from goldman Sach I think going to a buy with target 275

MA is a great buy around 230 and I think the dip this morning to 233 may be the last, 240 continues to be the support to push it towards 250-260 area. I will not be surprise that it will go there, but once it does, I think you will find alot of resistance and sell off.

Nvda would be nice if it can go back to 12, but with nasdaq re-entering below its 200 day moving average, that scares me. The market is too volatile, any rally has to be taken lightly.

[SilverRex]

wow hold just broke thur 803 and as expected its trigger alot of buy

nothing is stopping it to head to 830-836 which should provide a quick stop.

I will see where AUY will be then and unload and wait for another opporunity.

:D

[broken_legs]

I'm all out.


I think the markets going to tank again. Maybe wont hit the lows it already has but its going to tank from here.


I say some banks fails and next thing you know the bottom is falling out again.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by SilverRex

technically gold is due for a correction and it just broke out of a downtrend which was pushing it lower each day,
thankfully the support at 790 has been strong lately

and now if it can get thru 800 and hold, I see gold running back up to 830-850


Agreed - Looking at getting into HUI, since it has a tendancy to move with a lot of speed... perhaps a 330 call.

[SilverRex]

Gold looking good, hiiting 830 so far in premarket, I will be looking to cash out all my AUY and wait for retracement as I see 830-850 potentially reversing. Even if it doesnt, I know oil has broke out as well and will test the 125 resistance, then the short sell of oil resumes and I will wait again for the new low on oil or gold

if MA go back near 230 it would be tempting for me

[broken_legs]

Saunders, CEO of Visa is doing an interview right via satellite from Beijing about Visa and the Olympics, and the prospects for growth in that 1 billion people country...

[SilverRex]

^

hmm another public stund to push the stock price up?

I sense Visa/MA is on the verge of a short term breakout

but my focus is on oil and gold

gold alittle retracement this morning, I hope 11.11 breakout point holds for AUY.

I feel Gold should still have momentum left to head for its own retracement at 850/ounce

[broken_legs]

Buffet says more banks will fail but don't worry unless you have more than 100,000 dollars in your bank account. hahah

Also says that Fannie and Freddie are going to go bust and the government will take them out soon.

Also says that nothing good is going to happen in the economy till 2009...


Oh Oracle of Omaha!

[Canmorite]

Venture has really shit the bed the last few weeks...yikes.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Canmorite]

Human being? You mean like, getting off the computer? Fuck that...

[SilverRex]

thank goodness gold technical is working, gold is now at 840, it should test 850-860 soon. Let see what AUY can do for me today

[bigbadboss101]

so, AUY vs YRI, they should trade relatively evenly in both markets?

[snoop101]

If anyone is looking for a good up and coming game industry stock take a look at SDVI. I have no idea how I found this stock, but after doing my due diligence I found that it has a very good future.

Two main things I like is that for one next month there nintendo DS game is coming out and looks good. Second is the fact that the people running this are all from Electronic arts.

Anyways check into it and see if you like it or not.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
so, AUY vs YRI, they should trade relatively evenly in both markets?

wow gold just fell back on earth good thing i exited early will get back in low

[liquid1010]

What would be the best way to play the venture index?

I've found the ishares CDN small cap index, but anyone know of anything else.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by liquid1010
What would be the best way to play the venture index?



Take your money and run!

[SilverRex]

^^^

thats right the market will continue to give back all the gains, I still see we have yet to see the worse.

and I'm standing by the gold price will rise. Auy at around 10 is quite attractive. im adding to my position

[liquid1010]

I didn't say which way I was playing things ;)

I read a good article on the commodities boom, and the predictive value shown in the TIPS spread. I have my own theory on this....... :D

[natejj]

CET.UN

Rumors of a buyout. You heard it here first.

[TYMSMNY]

mmm even more impressed if you told me by who. ;)

[dj_honda]

anybody in FCP? anyone know whats going on?

edit: nm buyout rumours

[bigbadboss101]

Anyone know much about GBS.T?

[bigbadboss101]

MasterCard dropped quite a bit the last two days. And gold stocks down down.

[Canmorite]

Hell of a day to be short. :thumbsup:

[Rstar]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Hell of a day to be short. :thumbsup:

I really thought today would be a rally day :(

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Rstar


I really thought today would be a rally day :(

When we rallied up to 11750 on the dow, then reversed HARD, I kinda figured shit would hit the fan. The range on that day was big, and we closed down.

It just kept going though...didn't think we'd be this low today.

[broken_legs]

I think it will be pretty ugly for all of us if nat gas breaches $7.00

[djayz]

wow this is bad.

was the 2500 points that the tsx has given back all speculation?

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by djayz
wow this is bad.

was the 2500 points that the tsx has given back all speculation?

Having a market with a 37% weighting in commodities isn't always a good thing. haha

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Canmorite


Having a market with a 37% weighting in commodities isn't always a good thing. haha

Volatility FTW.... :nut:

[Z_Fan]

Pretty crazy stuff. When your RESP for your kids can actually have a large negative gain...ie loss...especially when the government kicks in 20% - the markets are so bad you lose that 20% and a whole lot more!!

That's just sad.

[djayz]

Originally posted by liquid1010


Volatility FTW.... :nut:

yah volatility is awesome but 4 days on vacation and i open up my account and can't even sell anything without loosing a chunk!

ohh well warren buffet long term holding ftw! haha

[Beerking]

Am I ever taking an ass kicking:confused:

I should not have gotten so excited when things started looking up late last week.

Agreed with above, keep holding on....:drama:

[SilverRex]

everything is taken a beating.

the only thing im holding on by a thread now is gold with AUY.

I dont know how much more longer the stock will continue to get hammer by hedge fund liqudation. But based on technical, 790 seems to be quite the floor right now for POG. I only suspect this floor to hold temporary, and I sure hope the strong support in his area will spawn another rally towards 850-860 (38% retracement) before initiating a 3rd wave down further.

the next support which I see will hold is 750 and I agree that it probablly will hit there, but will it be now? With US election around the corners, the strong dollar, the current US market is headed down in its 3rd wave.

This may make some sense, as the entire equity market falls further to new lows. money will flow back to gold. sparking a rally. until the stock market completelys bottoms out. Then you will get the start of a bull trend leg up.

and I hopethis is when gold will resume its decline to test 750 before making wave towards above 1000 again in the next year or two.

I only look and compare, that the 25% drop in POG is similar to the drop back in the 70s gold rush as well as in 06 when it too dropped 25% only rebound and move higher.

Crossing my fingers. :rolleyes:

[broken_legs]

So the head of bond buying at PIMCO was on CNBC bashing the Fed yesterday. He said that PIMCO is done buying this crap commercial paper and that Paulson is going to need to some up with at least 500 Billion dollars right quick to support all of the troubled banks.

As you may know the fed has been saying it would come in a save the institutions and banks if need be but it has basically been relying on investors to scoop up all the paper.

This could be big.




I'm kind of confused why the dollar is rallying right now. I really don't see any good news for the US at all. The only thing that makes sense to me is that all of the short positions on the dollar are getting unwound by all the hedge funds that are failing. Lon commodities and short the dollar is over for now. But fundamentally why is teh US dollar going up?

Buffet was on TV saying nothing has changed in monetary policy or anything that makes him believe the long term value of the dollar is going up.

So wha if Paulson has to pull the trigger and start buying some of that crap paper out there to support the financial industry - woudn't that send the dollar lower (500B of dillution)? Wouldn't that signal that the US is still in big trouble?




New lows?

Man Nat gas is taking a beating. But I see boon T pickens and now the CEO of Chesapeake energy on TV talking about switching cars and homes and electricity generation over to Compressed nat gas. This could be huge for that commodity. The US needs a stable source of energy, OIL is NOT that source. I hope one of the presidential candidates gets on board. I'm scoping out some of the shale gas plays in the US right now, theya re looking pretty attractive at these prices

CHK, HK etc...

What about the Schlumberger and the rest of the oil field service sector? They are getting smashed! It doesn't make any sense. NONE of their earnings are dependant on the daily girations in oil and gas prices. Look at RIG, its got long term contracts for years on offshore platforms.

I'm thinking that next week after an ugly monday perhaps we'll see a viscious rally in Oil and Gas stocks again.

Im hoping anyways... !

[stealth]

OPC is a good buy now...

[Canmorite]

Fannie May and Freddie Mac get bought out by the Government.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajcw4yxxPGJ8&refer=home

Freemarket who?

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Fannie May and Freddie Mac get bought out by the Government.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajcw4yxxPGJ8&refer=home

Freemarket who?

Wow..... this just brings more credence to the fact that this US Gov't is not willing to accept a major crisis in the financial markets to let all the weak hands fall.

Nothing like letting overextended individuals off the hook. Essentially this will cause some devaluation of the US dollar, and much like the Bear Stearns fiasco, the bill is footed by the avg tax payer.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Fannie May and Freddie Mac get bought out by the Government.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajcw4yxxPGJ8&refer=home

Freemarket who?

OK great the news is finally out. The cat is out of the bag.


So now what? Does this mean the US dollar shoots through the roof because everyone is happy that there will be stability in the markets now?

Or does this prove that the markets are fooked and are ready to make new lows?

This stuff is so hard to figure out you literally have to be watching CNBC all day to see the minute by minute change in opinion from all of these analysts and brokers.

:confused: I'm still out of the market completely save all of my company stock that I purchase via the company plan (which I am now underwater on!) I'm still waiting for some sort of direction here to get back in.

[Rat Fink]

.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


Wouldn't it send the US dollar down since the government is now taking on even more debt? Gold up because of instability?

You're right, its tough to figure out. They will bring some analyst on who will say its the end of the world. If he is right everyone gets patted on the back. If he's wrong, they bring out an analyst who says the opposite and they pat that guy on the back instead. It's all dickswinging after the fact. Those who are wrong disappear without saying a word, and those who are right come out in the open to say "told ya so! I knew it! I am god for today until I'm wrong tomorrow!" haha

Two sides to this story in a sense. One is that this extra debt that the US is taking on will obviously cause further dilution if all 200 billion staked is put into use - hence a lower dollar and higher GLD. One the other side of the equation, this influx of capital may stabilize the economy in the US, and allow them to focus less on "boosting the economy" with lower interest rates, and you may see inflation fears come back with the outcome being increased rates, and a higher valued dollar. :dunno:

I expect a big day for the DJIA on Monday.

[Canmorite]

US dollar and stock futures are already open, with the US dollar lower along with stock futures up quite a bit.

Tomorrow should be really interesting. I have no idea where we will go from here.

EDIT: Dow up 200 points, and S&P up 30 points. When was the last time we saw this? When the Fed stepped in and lowered rates by 100 basis points (or was it 75?).

[Mckenzie]

It will be interesting for sure.

I read that many of the big banks who have been trying to get the bad ABCPs and CDOs off their books hold many millions of the pref and common shares of fannie freddie.

It could get ugly again if the shareholders hold the bag and the value for them gets wiped out.

[SilverRex]

hmm I wonder if this is going to be the black monday that some are waiting for.

all I know is, I believe the worse is ahead of us and this may just be the catayst to push the market into the final bear wave.

and surely if this happens I hope gold is the way to go. Since gold has close the week above 800 and has tested below this level multiple times couple the fact I notice gold typically has a pretty strong showing in the last few month of the year.

this would be the perfect set up for POG to run back up.

:)

[SilverRex]

^^^

well what da you know fnm right now open/bid is at around 1.6 that is ouch.

The take over news by the fed has got to somehow hurt the dollar in the long hual. Wont this translate into a weaker US Currency?

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^^^

well what da you know fnm right now open/bid is at around 1.6 that is ouch.

The take over news by the fed has got to somehow hurt the dollar in the long hual. Wont this translate into a weaker US Currency?

Yes, it has. US dollar moving lower with Oil, N.Gas and Gold/Silver rallying...

[natejj]

Anything low-medium risk that looks like a good buy for an RRSP right now? I really want to downgrade the risk in my RRSP... so anyone recommend anything? An ETF, a mutual fund... anything.

[TYMSMNY]

Check out the O'leary Global Infastructure Fund for a conservative cash-yielding investment.

Power: Electricity Generation and Distribution; Gas and Oil
Storage & Pipelines; Hydroelectric, Nuclear, Solar,
Wind, Coal, Marine Turbine and Bio Energy Projects
Transportation: Toll-roads; Railroads; Maritime Ports; Airports;
Containers and Container Shipping

Communications: Telecom Systems, Cable and Satellite

Environment: Water; Waste Treatment; Carbon Sequestration;
Timber and Aerial Reforestation

Infrastructure Development: Engineering and Construction
Industrial Infrastructure Projects

[broken_legs]

blah


I 2 call options contracts on friday afternoon on my SLB shares @ 2.20 and sold it in the first 5 minutes this morning for 3.00 - Vix was at 24

100 dollars in the bank while the equity in my shares has lost about 2000

blah



Well I'm off to BC this morning (31 deg in Kamloops I hear) for a week of sun fun and golf. I'm going to try real hard not to think about the markets and come back with a fresh perspective next week.



Good luck guys

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Canmorite


Yes, it has. US dollar moving lower with Oil, N.Gas and Gold/Silver rallying...

WAS rallying. haha.

What a sell-off from this mornings high. 65 Points on the NQ :nut:

[liquid1010]

I believe people don't know what to think of this Fannie and Freddie news. First reaction was excitement at the fact that this may bring a bottom (somewhat sooner) in the housing and consumer market. It takes people a while to realize the true cost this purchase will have on the economy.

Was thinking of going long some HUI calls early this morning, but I'm glad I waited.......

[Canmorite]

Taken from a trader I know on another board. Overnight P&L, apparently...

http://img49.imageshack.us/img49/3341/thanksfedsvj5.jpg