Official Short-term Investments Thread

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^^^

I think so, just because the US gov keeps adding debt to their shoulder.

Congrad to those who bought MS under 20, it was freaky but now its trading near 24 dollars

Great call on MS!

I have to disagree with your comment on the USD though.... I think we've seen the CDN dollar as high as it's going to get.

[liquid1010]

So I have a slack day tommorow... and am looking for some plays tommorow. I'll continue to look/play Gold, but am not feeling comfortable with V, MS, or anything else I'm coming across.

Suggestions.... Long or Short......

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by liquid1010
So I have a slack day tommorow... and am looking for some plays tommorow. I'll continue to look/play Gold, but am not feeling comfortable with V, MS, or anything else I'm coming across.

Suggestions.... Long or Short......

I think tomorrow will be nuts. With the SEC coming out with their non-shorting idea, plus triple witching day for options...

[dimi]

WTF Kind of shit is this? Banning short selling? WOOOOOOOW

[SilverRex]

magic number is 849, if gold price cannot sustain price above this, it will turn bearish very quickly and right now the market is a mess.

[SilverRex]

hrm

interesting market outcome past two days. Though what the US gov did definately puts a short term bull on the market. I still see that there will be heavy sell of on wave 1 in a bull market.

So patient is key that means I dont think the market will tank that much further even if it turns around.

I would use previousl ows as a good guide and start picking up some good ones like Visa and appl

as far as today goes

you may take a quick ride with probablly any big name stock and it would hit a high, but given the gains are quite fast, I dont think anyone likes to get trap if suddenly there is a sell off.

I will be tradein oil/gold today as chart wise they both look good to creep up with oil going after 110 resistance and 104-105 will be some fight, gold looks ready to go after 890 again after closing back above 849 which to me is the signal between buying and selling. I would definately keep playing old while its over this.

depending on how strong the market finish today, Asia market still may have legs to move abit higher, this may prove EWH and CAF funds for a quick 5-7% surge.

anyways as tempting as it may seem that the bottom is in. I'll wait for a heavy sell off before confidently jumping back in for long term. Any play now is short term.

GL

PS oh and I forgot to mention, chart wise I like oil and gold which is tells me can the market sustain a bullish view on oil gold and US equity? something has to give today. for myself im betting that there will be sell off in the stock market and money is still flowing into commodities.

[BigMass]

this will somehow stop banks from going bankrupt, the us currency inflating, the housing market to stop crashing and create jobs how? Oh wait it wont. Nonthing's changed. Biggest short squeeze in the history of the planet more than likely. Then what.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BigMass
this will somehow stop banks from going bankrupt, the us currency inflating, the housing market to stop crashing and create jobs how? Oh wait it wont. Nonthing's changed. Biggest short squeeze in the history of the planet more than likely. Then what.

then oil/gold will hit new high is how i see it lol and US currency will be worthless if it isnt so right now.

Man, talk about a rush, I had bought MS 30k dropped at 17 dollars. Had I hold it or maybe I slip and fail downt he stairs and didnt wake up till this morning I would be a happy man at 33 dollars.

lol

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Rat Fink]

.

[DJ_NAV]

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Public, NYSE:GS) up 20% today!!!

[max_boost]

Damn it's nuts out there. +600pts lol

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by max_boost
Damn it's nuts out there. +600pts lol

Mean reversion anyone? ;)

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite


Mean reversion anyone? ;)

50 day?

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by broken_legs


50 day?

I don't follow moving averages really. I just think the huge move yesterday afternoon, plus a huge rally today, compared against the mean % of daily moves over the past years...leads me to believe this is overdone.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Canmorite


I don't follow moving averages really. I just think the huge move yesterday afternoon, plus a huge rally today, compared against the mean % of daily moves over the past years...leads me to believe this is overdone.

well back in july when the sec did the same thing and temp ban on the short sellers, yes it lifted the stock but look what happen after.

This is how I see it it may unfold.

1. if this is the bottom and is the start of a bull market. wave 1 no doubt will get a bounce but it will drop back to earth in any case, looking for bargin prices from their recent lows.

2. If this aint the bottom, price will drop further if not create a lower bottom, in any case when this happen you can certainly wait for it anything at or below recent lows would be a bargin

So is it a win win situation? if you have the cash and can place your bets and cost average down, then yes its nearly time.

meanwhile I am bull on oil I have enter my first position here that oil is about 100. it can go both ways, if it dips back to 90, I will buy again and 80 I will double down. if it shoots up to 110 I will take my profit and wait for 90-100 once more. chart wise 110 is a big resistance

I have also picked up Hong Kong iShare fund EWH. if it dips back to 13s. I will double down here. and let it sit for 6-12 months.

Gold, I will continue to intraday it until price can no longer sustain above 850.

[liquid1010]

Gold has been flying over the past 30mins......

[BigMass]

dow up another billion today. Guess all the economic and financial problems are magically over :rolleyes:

[Canmorite]

Gold still doing well, and I'm echoing S-rex's thoughts on Oil. Support at 100...

http://img92.imageshack.us/img92/9808/cartoon91808ji8.gif

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
good day on the market today

rex, what oil company would you enter?
i just sold SU and i bought it only on tuesday at almost 52weeks low. So i made some sweet cash today
But you say it might go down again, so should i stick with suncor or get CNQ or ECA?

Thanks

For oil, I hardly look at the companies, instead I trade the USO fund. Considering how much it has fallen in the last few weeks. And knowing oil will shoot towards 200, there are plenty of profits on the table. Just place your buys at the right levels.

For example, Buy a position at 100, if dip to 90, buy another, then 80 etc. when it shoots back up to 90, sell the 80 position. And if it goes to 100, sell the 90.

[Canmorite]

Just wanted to post this and see what kinda reaction there is. I've followed this guy for a while and his system is OUTSTANDING. He is a 'Reversion to mean' trader. This is his profit for friday only (bottom right box).

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/8901/rtmsg0.jpg

:nut:

[liquid1010]

Looking towards Oil on Monday morning, and Gold should also be active. With the Bailout details now becomming more solidified I think it will bring to light just how much money this will cost, and the effects it will have on the USD.


Bull spreads on Oil and Gold perhaps.....

Canmorite.... what site is he on?

[Pacman]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Just wanted to post this and see what kinda reaction there is. I've followed this guy for a while and his system is OUTSTANDING. He is a 'Reversion to mean' trader. This is his profit for friday only (bottom right box).

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/8901/rtmsg0.jpg

:nut:

Who is this guy? Is he selling some type of software or system?

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Pacman


Who is this guy? Is he selling some type of software or system?

Don't know his name. He is not selling the system. Probably because it would compete for fills with other traders, more then it does right now.

Google 'reversion to mean trading' and you'll get an idea of what hes doing. It relies on a number of computers able to crunch incoming data very fast, as well as store and bring up data from the past. Apparently a very costly system to build, as some are upwards of $500K.

[liquid1010]

I've brought this up before, but I'm wondering what platforms people here are using, or have any suggestions?

I've been looking at moving to ninjatrader, but it doesn't work with Questrade...

[Pacman]

Originally posted by liquid1010
I've brought this up before, but I'm wondering what platforms people here are using, or have any suggestions?

I've been looking at moving to ninjatrader, but it doesn't work with Questrade...

I use Thinkorswim

[Canmorite]

Ninjatrader is wicked. You need to get a data-feed though.

[liquid1010]

But it doesn't sync with Questrade does it?

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by liquid1010
But it doesn't sync with Questrade does it?

No it doesn't. You could use them for charting, and Questrade for order entry though.

[broken_legs]

Any predictions for tomorrow?

I sold some of my US stock into the rally on Friday.

I think I'm going to sell the rest in bits if the market keeps rallying.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

yeah the market looks ready to pull back.

gold still looking good and so is oil towards 110. Again I would sell near 110 and buy back around 100 and next position at 90. gold I would buy on dips.

If the 700B dollar bailout fails to get approved, then bingo that would short term cause a huge crash and put things where it should belong, the head fake rally would scare the bjesus out of everyone and this is when you wait patiently to scoup up big names that are so cheap you would be happy 5 years down the road.

But if the bailout happens, short term it could continue to provide a lift but everyone knows solving one problem by inducing another is not how to fix something. All of this points to a MUCH weaker dollar, and in doing so that translate completely 0 confidence in the US currency, and guess what that means new highs for Gold, and oil will creep back up as well. And as much as some disagree, we will see at least par again for our lonnie. I actually dont mind this scnario since im playing gold/oil at the moment.

:D

[liquid1010]

In GLD with two long calls. Was thinking of the bull spread, but decided to go with just two calls for potential upside... :drama:

[SilverRex]

oil almost near 110, another buck up and I will be out and will wait for a drop

[liquid1010]

Thinking of taking my daily profit and running from GLD.......:D

[broken_legs]

OSC Temporary Order Prohibiting Short Selling Cdn Financial Securities

SUMMARY:
The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) has announced a temporary order that prohibits any person from effecting a short sale in the publicly traded securities of certain Canadian Financial sector entities.This includes common shares, preferred shares and debentures of the affected companies.

Short selling any publicly traded securities of certain financial firms is prohibited. Open short sell orders will be cancelled for these securities

Further details may be found at the OSC web site at http://www.osc.gov.on.ca/Media/NewsReleases/2008/nr_20080919_csa-sup-temp-order.jsp. We will provide additional details as they become available.

CONTACT INFORMATION:
Should you have any questions or require additional information, please contact an Investment Representative at 1-800-465-5463.

[Canmorite]

^ Link broken...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080919.wshortscanada0919/BNStory/Business

Stopping shorters doesn't fix the underlying problems.

[SilverRex]

mama mia

oil future shot up to 130/barrel while current contact around 109.0

scary.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Canmorite
^ Link broken...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080919.wshortscanada0919/BNStory/Business

Stopping shorters doesn't fix the underlying problems.

Everytime I hear about this banning of shorts I keep thinking of Chris Rock's stand up bit about robitussin... "gotta broken leg? pour some tussin on it...... let that tussin sink to the bone..."

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by SilverRex
mama mia

oil future shot up to 130/barrel while current contact around 109.0

scary.

That was retarded. I just watched it rocket higher, no way I was stepping into that mess.


Originally posted by liquid1010


Everytime I hear about this banning of shorts I keep thinking of Chris Rock's stand up bit about robitussin... "gotta broken leg? pour some tussin on it...... let that tussin sink to the bone..."

Whatever you got, robitussin better handle it. You got to be damn near dead to see the doctor!

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
whats a good webise for oil prices??

i used oil-price.net, but it shows oil at 108.72? even tho people are telling me its at like 120

The October contract ramped up, but the November contract never got that high. www.bloomberg.com for prices...scroll down, everythings on the right hand side.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
ahh so the price is right then at 109

whats this contract all about?

is it to do with options?

Most traders move to the next months contract a week before expiration in the current months (October) because the volume starts to dry up and move to the next month (November).

The short sellers had to close their positions today, or else they would have to start physically delivering 1,000 barrels of oil for each contract they held. Therefore they were left with no option but to buy (to close) their October contracts at whatever price was available.

Thats why the spike in prices only happened in the October contract.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
with oil at 120, what does this mean for energy stocks like eca, su, cnq?

are they gonna sky rocket? or

Oil isn't at 120, it's at 109. You need to look at the November contract.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite


Oil isn't at 120, it's at 109. You need to look at the November contract.

:werd:

I was freaking out today watching the ticker ont he spot price, then I turned on my CNBC in the truck while I was driving around...

Only 30,000 contracts traded or something...


I sold more Schlum just before noon on the oil price as it seemed to be rallying some what.

I'm expecting things are going to come falling back to earth again soon.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Bimmer88]

Isn't it a good time to buy buy buy! Because the markets are going down, and when they hit rock bottom or if you can kinda gauge when it will hit rock bottom just buy! And when the market picks up you'll be rich! lol.

What stocks should I buy if I plan on buying some?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Bimmer88
Isn't it a good time to buy buy buy! Because the markets are going down, and when they hit rock bottom or if you can kinda gauge when it will hit rock bottom just buy! And when the market picks up you'll be rich! lol.

What stocks should I buy if I plan on buying some?

wait for visa at or below 60, Auy below 10, cost at or below 62. And also USO if it can dip back to around 70-80

[Beerking]

Originally posted by SilverRex


wait for visa at or below 60,

Do you think VISA will make it that low? What are your expectations on it?

I am pissed b/c I bought back in on Friday at 69.10 thinking it would start coming up this week.:thumbsdow

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Beerking


Do you think VISA will make it that low? What are your expectations on it?

I am pissed b/c I bought back in on Friday at 69.10 thinking it would start coming up this week.:thumbsdow

well I dont think the market can rebound on one or two good rally. there is still a chance we havent seen the worst. But at least if price were to fall back to recently low that would be a good 1st pick up.

As I saw it coming, oil finally touched off 110 and just couldnt break it. considering the last few weeks oil is in a bear market, the 200 day at price 110 is exactly the wall it needs to push it back down. In saying so, this is great, because it offers us another chance to buy low. I will be waiting for USO to be back below 80 and I will start to buy and double down on every 10 dollar dips.

if oil is to fall, I believe gold will too, it will mostly head side ways to firm up support between 850-920 for now. and because it has rised too fast, alot of people are actually thinking of taking profit and waiting for it to drop again.

So I'll wait for gold to be back around 850-860 and I will load up on AUY in the 8-9s all over again.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Rat Fink]

.

[Canmorite]

For only getting into T/A in the past few months, you're doing one hell of a job :rofl: (Check your PMs Rat)

I strayed away from 'T/A' and started focusing more on price action. Similar, but PA doesn't use any indicators, just price, support/resistance and volume. Anything that lags price is pretty much useless.

2.00 is major support, and 2.25 before that. Looks like it wants to head to 2.25 for now. A lower low (LL) was put in, but hasn't been that low since. The major move was of course months ago, but a secondary move could for sure be in the makings. Don't know the company, so no idea what's in store.

If it were me, I'd wait and see what happens at 2.25. If it hits, 2.00 I'd buy with a tight stop. Great risk reward at that level.

http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/6145/qec230908ku9.gif

[Rat Fink]

.

[revelations]

^ Damn, a few months of being a Techie?

Sounds like your a seasoned pro!


I've been out of the game for a bit, used to swing mainly - but from my setup (still working on it), the stock looks to be heading slightly down or sideways - for the short term.

http://inlinethumb57.webshots.com/41016/2394383310034037119S600x600Q85.jpg

[liquid1010]

Wonder if we will be seeing some serious moves in GS now that Buffett is in. I'll be keeping that and MS on my sights tommorow.....

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Rat Fink
T/A guys, what do you think of my reasoning here. I made another speculative purchase based on the charts for QEC today.

After selling the last of my QEC yesterday at 2.59 (decision was made based on the candlesticks, weakness of the bid side on the L2, and I figured oil would be in the red today), I just bought a little back into it at 2.34 today (just a partial fill), catching the low of the day with 3 seconds to spare. I'll buy a bit more as it gets closer to the 200 day MA. (approx 2.20ish) or unless I feel there is a turnaround coming before then.

I drew a couple trendlines (in red) as shown on the attached picture which I feel can illustrate the current trading range for QEC. Notice the lower trendline points to around 2.30ish. (I used this to decide on my "buy back in" price)

I feel its also worth mentioning the convergence of the 20 and 50 day moving averages (in pink and green), although they haven't crossed yet.

What do you guys figure. Am I a crackpot or does my reasoning seem logical? I've only been getting into T/A for the past few months.

http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h245/polypolara/QEC-4-1.jpg

that top part of the "triangle" should be pointing downwards.. resistance to resistance... not support to resistance.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a troll here and only pointing out your mistakes. If you're making money... then something is working and hope that keeps working out. Like canmorite has said, it looks like roughly $2 is a resistance but with these market activities, you have to have a pretty tight stop loss.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by liquid1010
Wonder if we will be seeing some serious moves in GS now that Buffett is in. I'll be keeping that and MS on my sights tommorow.....

I know what everyone will say...

Cramer is calling that GS will be bought out by a citibank or other big bank by this time next year. They have the highest quality deposits and credit rating etc.. etc... Now they are a commercial bank they are fair game etc.. etc..

He is an ex GS guy :dunno:


Oh and as far as t/a goes, I listened to a great interview, wish I could remember who it was explaining why T/A and how it measure emotions is really the only kind of trading that can work in these F'd up markets right now.


Also, i listened to the congress hearing on this Fed Bailout Bill today on CNBC. Not too many people are actually hot on this proposal.

Why do they 700 Billion all at once??? The banks have stated that they only need about 50 billinon/month... WHy can't they authorize 50 billion/month and see how it goes?

So many questions, i can't belive they are actually going to give all that money away to some joker to spend as he pleases with ZERO taxpayer or congressional or government oversight.

Cramer seems to think its a good idea, but he also thinks that the bill may get shit canned, causing the next great depression! interesting times to be listening to CNBC

:nut:


EDIT:

Does anyone on here subscribe to anything Jim Rogers does?

[Rat Fink]

.

[SilverRex]

looking good oil is coming down again and still refuse to break 110 which is the 200 moving average, I suspect to start looking to buy back when oil dips to 100, then 90 then 80 etc.

because of this gold will also drop and while current support around 880, I can see it dip to 850-860 retest. and if that happens it will be good to buy the dips regardless gold stock or fund alike. One article predicts gold is now in a bull trend after breaking 850 convincingly and has a really probable chance to hit 1200 by march next year. regardless I think gold will test the heights of 980 in coming weeks.

GL

[Rat Fink]

.

[broken_legs]

OK

So any big predictions for tomorrow?

CNBC had Buffet, a bunch of senators and congressman, and lots of political pundits on saying the bill is going to get passed tomorrow. 85% chance they say.

All of these public objections are just a smoke screen so it looks like the elected officials are actually fighting for the rights of taxpayers when really they know full well they aren't going to object in real life.

Also we got Mccain who still isn't supporting the plan and is cancelling his campaign to make some loud ass political blah blah blah about how this isnt fair for taxpayers. Could he have some affect on this bill passing??

Also Friday has the US GDP numbers out, how willt he markets react to that no doubt stellar manipulated data showing the GDP "growing" again.

So prediction for tomorrow? Markets go down, way down, then the news come sout then they go way up.


Thats just my guess anyways. VIX has closed above 30 for 6 days in a row now. This is just weird.

I noticed that a lot of stocks are a day away from or a day past that eerie looking 50/200 cross. aka the death cross.


I have some low ball bids in right now on my schlum, lets see if they get filled. Might jump into some calls too depending on how im feeling in class tomorrow haha.




Whats all of y'alls plans for tomorrow?

[SilverRex]

hmmm gold has been moving side wys for a few days now and the longer it closes above 884 the more bullish that it can make another run towards 920 suddenly, oil did come down from 110 resistance but is now finding support mid point between 100-110, and lower level charts are looking like it could turn soon.

I exited all my gold and oil a day ago and now this is really starting to look like gold/oil may make a move higher.

I will see if I can pick up a small position today at these level, if it dips then the better, but if it does advance at least I have something to work with.

mind you gold price is forming a bullish flag pattern that requires a breakout above 896, this breakout could push gold prices to wards 960. but for the moment, if it can break 888 then we will get a good rally to 895

[broken_legs]

i just bought back in...:burnout: go baby go

[SilverRex]

why sudden drop in gold and oil, well knew it was coming, it took a while.

welp time to exit and wait for it to bottom out

[revelations]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


Looks like a stop loss may have been triggered. Rebought at 2.26 for the bounce off the 200MA (hopefully). :clap:

Looks like its bouncing back now.... strong volume

[TYMSMNY]

Gold is considered a "safe haven" but if the feds are going to bail the financial sector out.. it'll provide some relief to investors and quell the fears.

Something to look at, HXU... double S&P/TSX60 Bull fund.

[broken_legs]

# Banking System Will Need Another $500 Billion: Gross

The banking system needs another $500 billion to survive beyond the $700 billion rescue plan, Pimco founder Bill Gross told CNBC.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY
Gold is considered a "safe haven" but if the feds are going to bail the financial sector out.. it'll provide some relief to investors and quell the fears.

Something to look at, HXU... double S&P/TSX60 Bull fund.

Two sides to that story... the bailout will also cost a ton in the way of capital... hence printing more money thereby increasing the money supply and consequently inflation. Counter to that however, the Fed will likely be issuing a ton of short term bonds and t-bills to cover some of these costs, hence lowering money supply.... so it depends on what you believe. Either way - the instability in and of itself has made me a moderate Gold Bull.

[TYMSMNY]

^ for sure. always at least two sides. More money printed = inflation.

Guess who's going to be buying all the bonds/bills? China and Japan. They've got so much in their treasury that the need to use it + their economy is so intertwined with the US that if the States go down... so do they.

[SilverRex]

^^^

yes gold bull I am.

Gold price is consolidating nicely around 865. Though my target is at 850. I will beging picking up more shares of AUY below 10 dollars. And will buy every 50-70 cent dips for short term profit, and will retain one large position for longer term run towards 14.0


As much as I am also bull on oil, I feel gold has a bigger portential short term and unless oil can dip back to 100 or below I'll keep waiting.

everything else is really unstable. The bailout can go both ways, temporary lifting the market then sell off begins again etc. The only thing it does, it may have stop the bleeding but the US has a long ways to recovery. If anything the asian market will recover much sooner than people think, so for funds and alike, I would look over there for bets.

[DJ_NAV]

AUY went below 10 today.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
AUY went below 10 today.

thanks for pointing that out, hence I am picking up more shares. I hope it dips into 8 then I will be happy

[SilverRex]

ok so the potential failure of the bailout is setting off sell off this friday. This is good means gold is ready to rocket and other stocks near their 52 week lows again.

watch gold, if it can sustain pressure above 890, it will lift off like it did days ago.

thankfully got back in AUY around 9.70s, let see how high this baby can go.

for stocks today. watch for opportunity for bounces both for short term trade and intraday.

great buys here for

Visa =<60
Mastercard =<175
Coscto=<61
Apple=<120
Starbux=<14


for riskier plays
Sirius=<.68
Divx=<6.50
Nvidia=<10.50
Imax=<6.0


Funds
(gold)GLD =<85
(china)CAF =<25
(hk)EWH =<13.50
(oil)USO =<80

good luck

[Rat Fink]

.

[SilverRex]

ok gold has finally cracked 890 and surging fast. is this the rally we all waiting for to rocket towards 960? we'll see.

hope everyone is all settle in under 10 for AUY :)

[bigbadboss101]

Damn RIM! What do you think. Projected stock price cut in half.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Damn RIM! What do you think. Projected stock price cut in half.

best to let the dust settle, if anything its in the middle of no where it will and can dip to 60 or even 50 as its next support level. Unless your a RIMM believer, for me I pesonally think they are finished.


now gold is hitting some resistance around 910 (trendline), but I am confident we will smash this in due time and test 960 based on price projection of the previous support rally from 824 to 908, and now from 870 to 954 thats about right

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Rat Fink]

.

[dj_honda]

what do you guys think of uts or oil sands in general? i bought this a long time ago at 3.46 and sold 2/3's of my position at 6.20ish earlier this year. I'm not sure if i should bother buying anymore but its super cheap now...

[broken_legs]

On Thursday, RIM reported a second-quarter profit of $495.5-million, or 86 cents per share diluted, up from $287.7-million, or 50 cents per share diluted a year earlier. Revenue was up 88 per cent to $2.58-billion from $1.37-billion last year.

RIM met its own forecasts for the quarter, but narrowly missed predictions from Wall Street for the second straight quarter. Analysts had expected revenue of $2.59-billion and earnings of 87 cents per share.

It also said that in the current quarter, it expects to add another 2.9 million customers and tally revenue of $2.95-billion to $3.1-billion and share profit of 89 cents to 97 cents.



So RIMM misses by ONE CENT and gets 25% hacked off the stock? The company met their own targets. wow.

I bought some dirt cheap calls when she was bouncing off 70 bucks today. Its RIMM!

[SilverRex]

well like buffet always says, buy when others are fearful and its exactly whats happening.

its not about if bailout will happen or not, its when this will end so people can move on.

Mastercard is near the 175 I saw weeks ago and Visa is very attractive now at 61

AUY is unbeliable, what ever reason is causing it to tank this fast, maybe they are about to acquire a small cap company. I would say below 9 is definately a buy. I still see Gold reaching 960 regardless its in a bear market or bull market.

also I read an article suggesting China could start moving their heavily invested US currency into Gold reserve. Can you imagine if this happens?

AUY all the way, buying more here.

both apple and visa is good buy if your not picking at which dollar price you want in. But be warned. no one can predict the bottom, its wiser to not put all eggs in one basket as well have cash standing by so the moment it dips another 10-20% you can scoop up the lower prices. And unload them as they come back up to your 1st position here.

watch for a sudden surge of buying in the last 15 mins, as alot will believe the announcement from now until monday will lift stocks

GL

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by SilverRex

also I read an article suggesting China could start moving their heavily invested US currency into Gold reserve. Can you imagine if this happens?


China has also stopped overnight lending to US banks. If China actually moves forward in their decision (even moderatly) to liquidate some of their US Bonds, and move towards Gold... we'll no doubt be hitting a MAJOR depression (not recession). That would absolutely drive the economy into massive inflation, with the US dollar falling through the floor.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by liquid1010


China has also stopped overnight lending to US banks. If China actually moves forward in their decision (even moderatly) to liquidate some of their US Bonds, and move towards Gold... we'll no doubt be hitting a MAJOR depression (not recession). That would absolutely drive the economy into massive inflation, with the US dollar falling through the floor.

I saw that news come out and I just lol'd. I doubt they will move all their US bond money solely into gold. Euro, Yen, Swiss, Pound...

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Canmorite


I saw that news come out and I just lol'd. I doubt they will move all their US bond money solely into gold. Euro, Yen, Swiss, Pound...

It would never happen entirely, but the threat of it... or even a small amount of it would absolutely cause global panic. :drama: ..lol....

What a crazy time right now.... it's nuts.

BTW.... does anyone know the technicalities used to mark these credit derivatives to market? When I see WaMu being sold to JP for pennies on the dollar.... it just seems odd. I know the leverage on these insititutions is huge... but I don't see how asset values can be cut by 80%ish...... must it just be just the lack of a decently liquid secondary market for CDO's and CDS's? If you're into the conspiracy theories this sure seems like a shake out of the weaker hands. Had Lehman declared a week later, they could have a been a part of that bailout.....

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by liquid1010


China has also stopped overnight lending to US banks. If China actually moves forward in their decision (even moderatly) to liquidate some of their US Bonds, and move towards Gold... we'll no doubt be hitting a MAJOR depression (not recession). That would absolutely drive the economy into massive inflation, with the US dollar falling through the floor.

here is a interesting question for you guys.

lets assume the US dollar continues to go south. The fact that most of us trade stock in a US funded account. Isnt this really bad for us?

if I have 20k in the account in US funds. and say after 2 years I'm up 20%, but when I exchange it back to canadian funds, I loose 10%.

What do you guys think we should do ? nothing we can hedge against this? maybe deploy all available US cash into a gold fund? And if you pick the wrong sector or stocks, imagine getting the double wamy having to loose money not just in your equity but also your currency.

I know some disagree that we may never see par again. But I tell you, the US will continue to loose steem and we will see a unify currency in north american. What was it called again Americo? or something. Trust me, just a matter of time. First the US currency has to be worth less, then the only way to salvage and stop the bleeding is to pull a euro dollar stunt. Again my personal opinion, I truely believe in the end times prediction from many source that the world will consolidate into lesser curency pair.

Now if you believe in that, then use that to your advantage.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by SilverRex
I know some disagree that we may never see par again. But I tell you, the US will continue to loose steem and we will see a unify currency in north american. What was it called again Americo? or something. Trust me, just a matter of time. First the US currency has to be worth less, then the only way to salvage and stop the bleeding is to pull a euro dollar stunt. Again my personal opinion, I truely believe in the end times prediction from many source that the world will consolidate into lesser curency pair.

Now if you believe in that, then use that to your advantage.

It's tough to hedge against any type of currency value loss with smaller amounts of money. There are index funds for CDN gold investment I believe, but short of that, I don't know how to hedge against that with minimal capital. With huge capital (ie: hedge funds) you could play some kind of swap (somewhat like a forward rate swap), but not with 5 figures. Anyone else know a way around this? I would be interested to hear about that too.....

In regards to the Amero.... I don't believe that will happen anytime soon.... if ever. I don't believe the hype personally, especially now that their economy is being killed. What's the advantage for Canada? Not much. Look at what it took to do in Europe... and I don't think the US would like to share a central bank with anyone.... and no-one would trust the states to run a central bank.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Canmorite]

You could go into the retail forex market and short the USD and buy the CAD. Huge leverage allows you to use minimal upfront capital, but you could cover the amount of invested cash in the US Equity market.

[broken_legs]

I'm pretty sure the best hedge against the US dollar going down will be investing in gold.

Pick your commodity that is traded in US buckos and buy it.

[natejj]

An interesting article.

John Embry: "When the gold's all gone, the market will go nuts"

Source The Gold Report 09/12/2008
John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist for Sprott Asset Management and renowned industry expert, has researched the sector for 30 years. He expresses disbelief as he explains today's irrational pricing in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report. He attributes gold's alarming distress to "violent intervention by the paper players." But he's convinced they can only hold prices down for so long and forecasts four-digit gold by January 2009. Juniors present the best opportunity to leverage the coming gold price explosion.

The Gold Report: In our last interview you said gold would unquestionably detach from the dollar. Ten months later, gold is still tethered.

John Embry: The downturn in both gold and silver was literally preposterous in magnitude relative to the rise in the dollar. This was a violent intervention by the paper players. Three U.S. banks on COMEX shorted something like 8,000 contracts in a very short time. That’s more ounces than all the world's miners produce in a month.

TGR: Can they keep doing that forever?
JE: No, they can’t. This is similar to what happens when you compress a spring. You hold it down but when it comes up, it springs back hard. We'll see a violent reaction in the gold price soon.

TGR: Will we have to wait six months or six weeks?
JE: If gold hasn’t moved up by the end of this year, I would be very surprised.
People don't realize how distressed the gold mining industry is.
Even at $1,000, miners weren’t doing very well. At $800, the entire industry is in crisis.
Costs have risen so much, nobody’s making any real money. In fact, some mines are starting to close.

TGR: Could mines reopen when gold reaches $850 or $900?
JE: Gold would have to be at least $1200 before mines reopen.

TGR: Is now the time for the majors to start acquiring?
JE: I don’t understand why the majors aren't acquiring because I've never seen anything like the discrepancy in value between the big cap stocks and the small stuff. Many interesting smaller companies are trading for a song; whereas, Agnico-Eagle and Goldcorp and Kinross are aggressively valued.

TGR: Some of the juniors have lost 80%.
JE: If you had told me we'd see this kind of carnage in the juniors while the gold was still north of $800, I would have said impossible. One of the reasons is that investors are giving up and gold funds, ours included, are under redemption pressure. This creates forced selling with insufficient buying and that leads to the most depressed prices since this cycle began in 2000.

TGR: How long can this go on?
JE: I don’t know but I’ve got some that actually are selling below the cash on their balance sheets.

TGR: Should investors wait for gold to go above $1,000 before investing in the juniors?
JE: Things have gone much farther down than I could have imagined in my worst nightmare.
If you are confident that the gold price is going higher, this is an ideal time to be picking away and buying a diversified list of very good quality, cheap juniors. I’ve made the most money in my life buying things that are out of favor because there’s no downside risk, certainly from a fundamental standpoint. When the worm turns, these things could double very quickly. When that happens it’ll be hard to buy. Start picking away now, as long as you share my opinion that the gold will see a hefty price rise over the next 12 months.

TGR: How does an investor determine which juniors merit a closer look?
JE: It all revolves around the people and the asset. I look for companies with strong financial support, a legitimate project with a 43-101 resource and sound management. Using those criteria, you can make a reasonable evaluation of what the net asset value is. You can put in your own gold prices while knowing that they’re not going to be cash-starved.

TGR: Do we have to work through this panicked selling before stocks will change?
JE: As long as people are abandoning the sector and taking money out of these funds, then there's a lot of irrational selling. The fund manager has no choice but to sell. This is creating a phenomenon where prices don’t make much sense. The larger cap stocks are the ones being bid up; they trade because generalists buy them. There’s a far bigger pool of capital prepared to buy them. That’s why you’ve got this remarkable discrepancy in valuation between the little guys and the big guys.

TGR: Other people we've interviewed are concerned about a real crash in the overall markets.
JE: We’ve already had the crash in the junior gold shares. That brings up the naked short selling of these stocks. I think there are grounds for a suit. A lawyer has been phoning me on this subject. Someone is trying to bring a suit against the perpetrators. There has clearly been nefarious activity in these stocks because they get driven down to a level where they can’t put their head up without getting pounded back down again.

TGR: If the market crashes, it'll pressure the gold funds.
JE: That assumes that the gold price doesn’t explode. If the market crashes, the authorities are going to pour so much money into the system to try to avert economic disaster. Money has to go somewhere. Some of it will go to gold. If the gold price heads higher, you’ve got the cheapest gold stocks in history. Maybe they won’t get dragged down in the crash. Maybe the big caps are going to crash.

TGR: Big caps gold stocks?
JE: Big caps period. Investors have already abandoned the illiquid stocks and huddled in the big caps.

TGR: A lot of people are saying that they see a slowdown in deflation. Do you agree?
JE: I think the problem is potential deflation because I am a great believer in Austrian economics and we’ve had the greatest credit abuses in history. There’s an awful lot of debt and you're stuck creating more of it to keep the momentum going. The real issue here is, can you do it? There is a good argument for a deflationary spiral like the Great Depression. On the other hand, this time paper money isn’t anchored. Everything’s fiat and the government can create it with the stroke of a pen or the touch of a computer key. If you really want to pin me down, I'd say we’re going to have a hyper inflationary depression. The value of money will be destroyed and economic activity will grind to a halt. It'll be the worst of all possible worlds— a South American meltdown. If that happens, the one thing I want to own is gold. I have been investing more in bullion recently than in stocks. I already own some stocks. But I do believe that if bullion performs as I expect it to, the stocks will do well. If you go back to the 1930s, the best performing things on earth were the gold stocks.

TGR: They went down in the beginning.
JE: They did, but these have already gone down. That would make the case that we had the bear market in gold. I guess they could go down 90% from the peak prices, but still the risk/reward heavily favors the reward side. That is not true for large cap stocks, particularly those that make up the indices.

TGR: But if the price of gold doesn't turn around, don't a lot of juniors risk bankruptcy?
JE: If they’re not in production and are fairly careful, they can gear back. The ones in production and losing money are at the greatest risk of bankruptcy. If gold doesn't turn soon, they won't be able to finance their operations. A lot of these guys lose money and just kept going out and raising more. They just keep losing money, so they close the mines. That’s also very bullish for gold. We're going to have less and less gold in production.

TGR: What about the juniors that aren't in production?
JE: I'm not worried about the ones that have real ore bodies and have gotten pounded down to where they’re trading at $10, $15, or $20 an ounce in the ground.

TGR: Because they’ll be taken out?
JE: They’ll be taken out or they’ve hit bottom and, as long as they have enough capital to move forward, they can gear down. Small, quality gold shares are proxies for a higher gold price. The problem is that the gold price is so severely suppressed vis a vis other commodities that the whole business has become uneconomical.

TGR: What percentage should an investor have in bullion and in what form?
JE: If the worst happens and everything goes to hell in a handcart, you want bullion. So the core of your portfolio has to be bullion. Depending on how much money you’ve got, you can decide what percentage you want to wager on the upside.

TGR: So you recommend a core holding of bullion. Do you believe people should have coins?
JE: Absolutely. I’m a big believer in coins and actually have them in addition to physical gold as part of my position.

TGR: Would the balance be in producers and exploration companies?
JE: I can't pound the table for any of the large cap producers because they don't represent terrific relative value. However, when the gold price goes up, they’re going to go up in price. My view is that some of the smaller ones will go up a lot more. It depends on what your goal is. If you only want to protect yourself, own nothing but bullion. But if you want some leverage and to make some money, then you should probably get some intermediate and smaller gold stocks that have been really taken to the wood shed and pounded.

TGR: Could the powers that be continue to drive gold down?
JE: They have a financial crisis of epic proportions and the last thing they want is for gold to become the go-to asset, so they’ve been throwing everything at it but the kitchen sink. That strategy has resulted in unprecedented shortages of physical gold. Half the bullion dealers and coin dealers in America can't get it.
The U.S. Mint suspended production of Gold Eagles. They claimed it was due to a shortage of blanks. I don’t believe that. I think it’s a physical shortage. COMEX has created an irrationally low price and people are coming out of the woodwork buying it.

TGR: And they can’t replace it.
JE: The fact is that all this stuff at central banks has been leased and swapped and sold into the market. It’s gone; it’s not coming back. So we’re running out. The question is when will it be completely gone—that's when the market will go nuts.

TGR: Are you forecasting that for January of 2009?
JE: That's when we’ll have four-digit gold—maybe higher four digits. As this credit crisis unfolds, the gold market can come into its own again. Attempts to discourage people by pounding the gold will end. When everyone realizes what’s going on, I think it’ll have a salutary effect on the gold price.

TGR: John, as usual, we appreciate your time.
JE: It’s always best to talk when things are at their worst because I think that’s when the opportunity is the greatest. When we have another conversation six months from now, I think it’ll be a much happier one.

John Embry is chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset Management. Embry, an industry expert in precious metals, has researched the gold sector for over 30 years and has accumulated industry experience as a portfolio management specialist since 1963. He joined SAM as Chief Investment Strategist in March 2003 with focus on the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund and the Sprott Strategic Offshore Gold Fund, Ltd. Prior to joining Sprott, Embry was Vice-President, Equities and Portfolio Manager at RBC Global Investment Management, a $33 billion organization where he oversaw $5 billion in assets, including the flagship $2.9 billion Royal Canadian Equity Fund and the $250 million Royal Precious Metals Fund.

Visit The GOLD Report - a unique, free site featuring summaries of articles from major publications, specific recommendations from top worldwide analysts and portfolio managers covering gold stocks, and a directory, with samples, of precious metals newsletters. To subscribe, please complete our online form (http://app.streamsend.com/public/ORh0/y92/subscribe)

The GOLD Report is Copyright © 2008 by Streetwise Inc. All rights are reserved. Streetwise Inc. hereby grants an unrestricted license to use or disseminate this copyrighted material only in whole (and always including this disclaimer), but never in part. The GOLD Report does not render investment advice and does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned in this report. From time to time, Streetwise Inc. directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise.

-- Posted Friday, 12 September 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

[SilverRex]

interesting.

How I wonder how safe is investing in gold spot. I guess as safe as the company that lets you trade it?

Maybe I should diversify my holdings and put some in gold spot. :thumbsup:

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Canmorite
You could go into the retail forex market and short the USD and buy the CAD. Huge leverage allows you to use minimal upfront capital, but you could cover the amount of invested cash in the US Equity market.

touche... that's a good simple idea.

Nate that article you posted is interesting. It's fairly doom and gloom, but the information is great.

[Beerking]

Originally posted by SilverRex
interesting.

How I wonder how safe is investing in gold spot. I guess as safe as the company that lets you trade it?

Maybe I should diversify my holdings and put some in gold spot. :thumbsup:

SilverRex, what is your view on AUY? I just bought in on Friday at 8.79, you think we are looking at a quick jump or a slow climb??

What about VISA?

[sneek]

:( I have APPL and RIM.TO...this is a horrible past few weeks. Good think I sold off a good chunk of my RIM a while ago. I might consider picking some up if it dips into the high 50's to average down.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Beerking


SilverRex, what is your view on AUY? I just bought in on Friday at 8.79, you think we are looking at a quick jump or a slow climb??

What about VISA?

AUY is quite volatile, it can move more than it's peer but it can alway surprise you. Last friday was interesting as it gave back 7% and other big cap gold stocks actually closed up.

Just make sure you dont put all money in one basket. I am bullish on AUY and will continue to buy on dips. My own strategy is this, I have a magic number at 10 dollars. I have a position at 9.75, followed by 9.00, if it dips to 8.00 I will buy another and so forth. if price climbs a dollar I will unwind one position. Until it reaches above 10 where I will hold one position for longer term.

For visa, I managed to pick up some around 61.00, regardless its 58 or 62, if you feel this is the bottom, then its good. the potential downside risk is, if the market hasnt bottomed out, it could easily dip suddenly and quick to 44-55. Thats when I will average down and similar to AUY, if I do get it at around 50s, the moment visa climbs above 60 is when I unload the extra position But if you have the money to spare on a few position, 60 dollar is the min, anything higher is plain expensive.