Official Short-term Investments Thread

[BigMass]

Originally posted by broken_legs


I'm going to do something very foolish.

Keep buying little bits here and there of companies I like at fantastic discounts until Thursday.

I think pres Bush will be addressing the nation tomorrow morning, and I also think that this bill is going to pass on Thursday one way or another after the Jewish holiday.

just remember as a general rule of thumb, when Bush talks the market tanks

[Z_Fan]

I wonder if it would be better to move all RRSP stuff out of mutal funds into basic savings accounts until this resolves itself. Stop the bleeding where it sits and wait and see...buy back in to those funds once everything is more normal.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by BigMass


just remember as a general rule of thumb, when Bush talks the market tanks

Good!

Let it tank some more. Go Bush Go!

Thursday/Friday are going to be good days.

[Bimmer88]

USO dropped below 80!

I'd give it a few more months before things start to pick-up again, but I'd say give it a week or two then buy.

[broken_legs]

So i just finished reading some interesting articles on how credit card debt is the next big thing to default.

Companies like Discover, Capital One, and American Express are going to feel the pain in a big way soon.

With shit hitting the fan on the verge of recession etc.. etc.. this thesis just makes sense to me.

I'm trying to think of a safe way to play this to the downside. Any ideas?

Puts? Short?

[TYMSMNY]

Opens up the day with +300 points. Let the games begin!

[broken_legs]

well im up on SU and SLB first thing this morning.

I knew it was going to be a good day today looking at futures this AM>

Problem is Webbroker was down all night,,, Now I can't log on. Anyone else having this problem???

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by broken_legs
So i just finished reading some interesting articles on how credit card debt is the next big thing to default.

Companies like Discover, Capital One, and American Express are going to feel the pain in a big way soon.

With shit hitting the fan on the verge of recession etc.. etc.. this thesis just makes sense to me.

I'm trying to think of a safe way to play this to the downside. Any ideas?

Puts? Short?

Do you have the link to that article?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

phuck Mastercard went from 150 to 178.50 in 2 days

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by liquid1010


Do you have the link to that article?




Credit cards to ‘implode:'
analyst September 29, 2008 at 4:51 PM EDT By JOHN PARTRIDGE

Globe and Mail Update
A hurricane of bad credit card debt will start crashing ashore in the United States in the first quarter of next year, even as the mortgage crisis continues, analysts at New York research firm Innovest Strategic Value Advisors warned Monday.

“A combination of a 10-year steady drip of deteriorating personal finances and a tidal wave . . . brought on by the mortgage and credit crisis leads us to believe that credit cards are going to implode in the near term,” Gregory Larkin, Innovest's senior banking analysts said during an online seminar on the topic.

So far, credit-card “charge-offs” – debts declared irrecoverable by card issuers – have been “defying gravity,” with losses lower than in both 2001 and 2005, Mr. Larkin said.

But, historically, after a time lag, irrecoverable credit-card debt has followed mortgage charge-offs up or down, and U.S. mortgage charge-offs have rocketed up eight-fold since the last quarter of 2007.

“If history is any indicator, there should be an equivalent surge in credit-card charge-offs very soon,” he said. “We forecast first quarter credit-card charge-offs will be $18.6-billion (U.S.) and that the total 2009 charge-off bill will add up to $96-billion.”

Laura Nishikawa, Innovest's consumer finance analyst, said the credit card issuers that will be hurt least in the coming crunch will be those who had the “foresight” to improve their risk management performance during the bull market, even if they sacrificed some growth in the process.

“On the other hand, companies that have pursued aggressive portfolio growth and higher yields at the cost of prudent risk management will struggle to manage rising loan losses, which will definitely cut into earnings or even worse, as the last few weeks have shown,” Ms. Ishikawa said.

As well, companies that have a business model that is based on consumers actually repaying their credit-card loans, will be more resilient, although, “in reality, in the consumer finance business, we usually find the opposite of this,” she said.

She cited American Express Co., with its charge-card model, as a prime example, calling it “best in class,” in the business by this measure.

JPMorgan Chase also earned “best in class” among broad-based commercial banks by this and other yard-sticks, she said.

The flip side of the coin, is credit card issuers that base their business model on consumers not paying off their card balances. Higher balances mean higher revenues along with penalty fees and jumps to higher interest rates in the event of missed payments.

“In this model,” Ms. Nishikawa said, “delinquent borrowers become cash-flow generators, and at the extreme end, the goal becomes: ‘How do we get borrowers into delinquent status as soon as possible, in order to maximize returns?'”

Even in good times, this strategy is a “tight-rope walk” between high fees and high charge-offs. “But when the economy turns bad, as it has, this strategy clearly cannot be sustained.”

She cited Capital One Financial Corp. as “worst in class.”

In response to a query during an e-mail question and answer period, Ms. Nishikawa said that the three Canadian banks most active in U.S. consumer banking, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Montreal, are still “very small players” in the U.S. card business.

Still, Innovest's preliminary findings, she said, suggest that the three banks' default rates on their U.S. credit card lending are “much lower” than the much larger issuers the firm has been concentrating on, although she emphasized that she is not “100 per cent confident” of this data.


I think I'll buy some way out of the money puts for Q1 2009 on COF-N. They are cheap, im only going to throw a couple hundred dollars into it. If the thesis is right, COF gets its ass handed to it when consumers start defaulting into next year and my 0.25 puts go into the money.

COF:

Q4 21-Jan-2009 - Estimated 0.82 (US$)
EPS Actual EPS Year-ago Actual Vs Estimate Actual Vs Year-ago
- 0.90 (US$) - -

Q3 16-Oct-2008 After market hours Confirmed 1.03 (US$)
EPS Actual EPS Year-ago Actual Vs Estimate Actual Vs Year-ago
- -0.18 (US$) - -

Q2 17-Jul-2008 After market hours 1.31 (US$)
EPS Actual EPS Year-ago Actual Vs Estimate Actual Vs Year-ago
1.26 (US$) 1.89 (US$) 3.82% 33.33%

Q1 17-Apr-2008 After market hours 1.48 (US$)

So they are already guiding wayyyy lower, yet the stock is trading higher? Hmmmm....

[Schwa]

my CNQ calls looking solid today :D

[broken_legs]

dumb options question.....


Why are there two sets of options for the same strike price and month? And why are they priced differently?

ie:
YFN P JAN 15.00 US trading at 2.10
COF P JAN 15.00 US trading at 0.4

[Pacman]

Originally posted by broken_legs
dumb options question.....


Why are there two sets of options for the same strike price and month? And why are they priced differently?

ie:
YFN P JAN 15.00 US trading at 2.10
COF P JAN 15.00 US trading at 0.4

What is the underlying stock symbol so I can pull up the options chain?

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by broken_legs
dumb options question.....


Why are there two sets of options for the same strike price and month? And why are they priced differently?

ie:
YFN P JAN 15.00 US trading at 2.10
COF P JAN 15.00 US trading at 0.4

Same month, different year?

[broken_legs]

well when I look up my options with my real time package I only see the COF ones.

I think that YFN is another symbol thats getting pulled by accident when I look for COF options.



So, I sold out of my SLB position at 78 dollars today.

Also sold out of my bad call on RIMM calls from last week when the nasdaq rallied today.


Still holding onto my SU.



Was looking at CC-N. Circuit City just got pounded down from 8 dolalrs to 0.75 dollars. Might be fresh for a bounce if the bill passes tomorrow.

I was also looking at Wachovia which was up 30% then 50% then I looked at it again at 70% and kicked myself for only looking... oh well

[liquid1010]

Gold bouncing near that $870 support. Interesting to see if that holds....

[broken_legs]

I believe that things are going to go lower soon.

So i sold all my suncor just under 42 bucks at the close for a nice 7% profit.

I was going to roll some of that cash into DXD-A because I think things are going to drop some more when people start waffling on the bail out plan tomorrow again.

[Beerking]

What do you guys suggest for buying GOLD, I have a bad feeling and want to be ready and put my money where it will be safe. I will leave my options for now and weather through the shit and see how they come out in the end. BUt I want to save what I still have in cash.

Anybody putting their money into GOLD, what do you recommend?:nut:

[broken_legs]

I like HBU-T because when gold moves this thing flys

Only down side is that its pretty stagnant

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Beerking
What do you guys suggest for buying GOLD, I have a bad feeling and want to be ready and put my money where it will be safe. I will leave my options for now and weather through the shit and see how they come out in the end. BUt I want to save what I still have in cash.

Anybody putting their money into GOLD, what do you recommend?:nut:

1oz Gold Maples. If you're going to sock it away i recommend physical Gold. I'd only buy ETFs or Stocks if you're looking to trade and flip. Physical Gold is money. It’s tradable for paper currency anytime in case of emergency. Don't neglect Silver, Platinum or Palladium either at these prices.

[SilverRex]

gold bounced off 855 nicely which to me I think is the last line of support before it turns bearish again.

if your not buying physical gold.
you can either trade the gold (GLD) fund. or trade the spot gold in forex against the dollar with leverage. Stocks you can pick big cap like (ABX) barrick gold which is doing quite well on certain days when mid to jr gold companies suffering from the market meltdown. I personally favor yamana (AUY) and Kinross gold (KGC) for mid tier plus they have a high chance benig a take over target with their strong cash flow and asset. and I recommend stay away from jr companies as a crash in the market could wipe them out due to lack of equity funding.

remember, diversify and I like splititng with gold and oil at these levels.

an interesting article of what gold price may look like in 2012
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1222786620.php

Dont sleep on it but it sure ease alittle bit off the uncertainity in holding the yellow

[broken_legs]

Scares from a fleeting rise in the dollar and a whiff of deflation convinced much of the public to dump gold and gold shares back then. And yet, as Doug Casey commented, “That was the buying opportunity of a lifetime and the last time the train stopped at a station with a 3-digit gold number.”


Oh Casey Files constantly clogging up my email inbox. I wish I had the time to read all of you haha

[SilverRex]

ok gold creeping up now at 877, if we can trade above 885 that would be the key trigger. Come on Gold baby.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ok gold creeping up now at 877, if we can trade above 885 that would be the key trigger. Come on Gold baby.


Do you notice a disconnect between gold and the US buck? US dollar is up this morning...

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by broken_legs



Do you notice a disconnect between gold and the US buck? US dollar is up this morning...

im wondering if that is a good thing. I think it is just because of the fact that dollar is up but gold refuse to let up something tells me the buying of gold is strong with this one. lol

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilverRex


im wondering if that is a good thing. I think it is just because of the fact that dollar is up but gold refuse to let up something tells me the buying of gold is strong with this one. lol

So is gold going up because the stock markets are going lower and everyone is worried about the markets crashing?
Lots of bad news coming next week in earnings and Friday in employment #s.

Or is gold going up in anticipation of the bill getting passed and more dilution in the us buck? What happens if the bill doesn't get passed?

Or is gold going up because people believe that the bill isn't going to get passed and the markets will crash.

or, or or?

:cry:

[BigMass]

the gold and silver paper market are heavily manipulated. So don't try and figure it out rationally. If you want a real insight into the true value of gold and silver look at ebay or other online stores.

1oz silver is about $12 spot now but a Silve maple can sell on ebay for $24. It has no collectible value, it's only value is the silver content. And why ebay? because online stores like Apmex don't even have silver to sell. Even gold is getting scarce.

I’m sure you can youtube or google some info on this yourself but the manipulation to the short side in the gold and silver markets at this time is legendary. That’s why speculators believe that when the charade of shorting gold with gold that doesn’t even exist ends, the price will shoot through the moon.

[SilverRex]

just a matter of time

[e36bmw///]

nm

[TYMSMNY]

37.53 on the US
39.80 on the TSX

Just out of curiosity, if a company was to be listed on both CDN and US exchange... do you figure out the exchange rates and then buy it on the respective market?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[TYMSMNY]

Sorry.. I meant do you figure out which market is a better "deal" and play arbitrage?

for example...

SU on the US Xchange works out to be 0.5% cheaper than the Canadian counterpart. Would you just buy the US stock in your CDN$ denominated account? or have a separate USD$ account for things like that.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY
37.53 on the US
39.80 on the TSX

Just out of curiosity, if a company was to be listed on both CDN and US exchange... do you figure out the exchange rates and then buy it on the respective market?

i just keep money in a US acct and a CAD acct and try to be careful on what days I transfer funds in and out, like forex trading on my bank accounts haha

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

wow AUY tested 8 dollars unbelievable. The short selling on this is crazy.

I'm all in at 8.00 here.

Definately this stock is not for the faint of heart but I've always liked AUY from the start.

Buy at your own risk, as long as gold price remains high, bailout goes thru, fed prints money. I just look at this as another great buying opportunity.

I was able to cash in when AUY first traded from 9.26-11.56, then it was scary (because gold was at 740 and dropping fast) but made some good money between 7.26-10.97) Now its back at 8, once has to wonder if 3 times is a charm.

I hope it does because if price can rally back above 9, AUY will show a inverted Head and shoulder on its charts. Which is of course bullish.

I'm going with my experience and gut, that something one way form of another will happen soon. Either AUY gets taken over because their shares are so cheap or the massive short selling will result in a very dramatic covering. similar to Bank of america when I bought at 20 bucks, the oversold was insane, and the covering pushed it 70% the other way.

hold on to your teeth, this is going to be a wild one.:eek:

[broken_legs]

Senate votes today on the new bill.

CNBC started reporting that theres a way better chance this bill is going to get passed by the senate again then the DOW went from -200 to -120 in a matter of minutes.

I'm thinking it will rally into the vote. If the senate vote passes we'll finish a little high on the day with the congress deciding tomorrow of course. But if it fails.... oh man watch out below


and crap, i have gold at 884 dollars on CNBC and only 879 on NeDania and meanwhle on Globeinvestor supposedly using real time nymex, i have 76 dollars

grrrr

[BigMass]

any type of rally due to the passing of this bill will only be temporary IMO. Good time to get out of bad positions and buy into Gold if it drops on the news.

There is no good news in the government going another 1-2 trillion dollars into debt and totally inflating the dollar.

[TYMSMNY]

^ also with the news that the Treasury would backstop the FDIC with unlimited amount of funds.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by BigMass
any type of rally due to the passing of this bill will only be temporary IMO. Good time to get out of bad positions and buy into Gold if it drops on the news.

There is no good news in the government going another 1-2 trillion dollars into debt and totally inflating the dollar.

Gold is over 890 trading on higher that the bill will pass tonight at. Senate votes at 9:30 PM

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY
^ also with the news that the Treasury would backstop the FDIC with unlimited amount of funds.

Think the CDIC will follow suit?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite


Think the CDIC will follow suit?


Lets hope so.

I think it would be a good pre emptive move and ncie to know its there in case you need it, but i really don't see what would cause a run on Canadian banks.

Are you worried Canmorite?

Edit: Gold at 896...

I doubled up on HBU at 17.55 this morning go baby go!

Double EDIT:

Breaking News

House says they will NOT vote on the bill before FRIDAY.

[TYMSMNY]

Well they're increasing their protection from 100K to 250K per account type in order to quell investor fears. Canadian investors aren't really at that stage yet but the liquidity fears are starting to show. If we start to see an increase in defaults and banks going near bankruptcy, then I'd start to worry a little. I don't believe the CDIC will increase their limit in the near future as there is no need to.

What's happening now is that there is a big redistribution of funds so that there is no more than $100,000 in any one fund. CIPF is still in effect.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
source?


Twas on CNBC. Update says its at 9:00 am on Friday


This just in:

Short ban extension will be voted on tomorrow morning.

Something about exemption for convertible preferred shares

[SilverRex]

interesting I was comparing the HUI index to AUY stock price and lord and behold (you guys probablly know this already) but it almost has a 100% link between the two. I couldnt understand why AUY would keep falling despite days where gold price inched up, but after comparing the two charts, wow

AUY = HUI

And im getting excited with this right inverted head and shoulder formation on the HUI, if it can pull above 340, then AUY will do the same. Hopefully its true and HUI can hit 400 that means AUY has the upside towards 14.

anyone here see the same thing?

i just spotted the HUI index has formed a very good support for a few days at 315 and today it just broke thru the down trend. This is bullish to me. no wonder AUY finally reacted the way it should not jumped from 8.00 to 8.61 as I wrote this

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
source?

on Bloomberg as well. House of Representatives (Brendan Daly) said they will most likely vote on Friday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQzP3B9VG90E&refer=home

[broken_legs]

holy crap...

So I bought 100 shares of DDM when the market started upticking on the news that the France was going to propose a 300 B euro bank bailout deal.


Then on CNBC they announced that the french minister went on TV and said there was no such deal.

BAM

DOw drops 100 points and my internet is too slow!



EDIT:


stopped out fuck

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
interesting I was comparing the HUI index to AUY stock price and lord and behold (you guys probablly know this already) but it almost has a 100% link between the two. I couldnt understand why AUY would keep falling despite days where gold price inched up, but after comparing the two charts, wow

AUY = HUI

And im getting excited with this right inverted head and shoulder formation on the HUI, if it can pull above 340, then AUY will do the same. Hopefully its true and HUI can hit 400 that means AUY has the upside towards 14.

anyone here see the same thing?

i just spotted the HUI index has formed a very good support for a few days at 315 and today it just broke thru the down trend. This is bullish to me. no wonder AUY finally reacted the way it should not jumped from 8.00 to 8.61 as I wrote this

wolly mojo, Im up near 10% after going all in at 8 for AUY

dam, HUI just broke out its intraday high and AUY pushed higher. The more I see this now the more Im convinced.

HUI and Gold price does not move together. HUI tracks 13 gold stocks, and somehow I cant explain but AUY is not amongst them but somehow moves when HUI moves.

so thanks to HUI to AUY corrolation, I am able to pick up some dam cheap shares.

lets hope the reverse head and shoulder formation will happen because that will take HUI to 400 and that on the chart means between 11-14.

:nut: what a day

[broken_legs]

hahah

this is hilarious


Warren Buffet Buys a whole crap load of GE
GE offers 12 billion in shares to public

There IS a european bailout deal and the US treasury is about to talk about it...

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilverRex


wolly mojo, Im up near 10% after going all in at 8 for AUY

dam, HUI just broke out its intraday high and AUY pushed higher. The more I see this now the more Im convinced.

HUI and Gold price does not move together. HUI tracks 13 gold stocks, and somehow I cant explain but AUY is not amongst them but somehow moves when HUI moves.

so thanks to HUI to AUY corrolation, I am able to pick up some dam cheap shares.

lets hope the reverse head and shoulder formation will happen because that will take HUI to 400 and that on the chart means between 11-14.

:nut: what a day


Couple things.

That shoulder is almost gone at the close. What do you think?

Gold kind of fell apart there towards the late afternoon but should close around 870ish

also Yamana IS part of the HUI. I think thats why theres such a strong correlation ;-)



AMEX God Bugs HUI-I
Barrick Gold Corp.
Agnico-Eagle Mines
Yamana Gold Inc.
Coeur D'alene Mines
Eldorado Gold
Gold Fields
Goldcorp Inc.
Randgold Resources
Golden Star Resources Ltd.
Hecla Mining
Harmony Gold
Iamgold Corp.
Kinross Gold
Newmont Mining
Northgate Minerals Corp.

[broken_legs]

News:

Bailout plan passes the Senate by 74-25

.... And Futures are DOWN :drama:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by broken_legs
News:

Bailout plan passes the Senate by 74-25

.... And Futures are DOWN :drama:

Now it goes to the house.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite


Now it goes to the house.

Not till Friday Morning.


Oh about CDIC, just read an article in the Globe n Mail saying



“The [International Monetary Fund] has confirmed in a recent assessment of the Canadian financial sector that deposit insurance and arrangements for crisis management and failure resolution in Canada are well designed,” the official said, noting that the deposit insurance coverage limit was raised to $100,000 (Canadian) from $60,000 in 2005.

Business academics, deposit brokers and financial advisers agreed Wednesday that increases are not necessary in Canada, given the stability of the Canadian banking system as compared to the U.S. banking system, where a number of high-profile financial institutions have collapsed in recent months.

[SilverRex]

welp I'm going to try and get rid of some of my AUY and pick up some YRI. Same company but the other is traded in canadian funds. Which with the rate in the 1.06-1.07 range, I rather keep it in canadian fund in case the dollar tankers again.

Welp Gold is hovering around 850, this is the last stand in my books, a fibonnaci support as well as 200 day. I hope it will hold otherwise short term gold outlook would be dim before making another run higher

[BigMass]

trading Gold is a headache because it's manipulated, and short term it doesn't respond to political and economic events like it should. For me it's a long term investment and a hedge against an economic collapse/downturn.

In the long run, there is nothing to stop the US dollar from plunging. These temporary run-ups in the dollar is just that, temporary.

[TYMSMNY]

Gold isn't as responsive as it should be. I use it more of a hedge against inflation than anything else.

Oil and Gold, :thumbsdow today

[Beerking]

Originally posted by SilverRex
welp I'm going to try and get rid of some of my AUY and pick up some YRI. Same company but the other is traded in canadian funds. Which with the rate in the 1.06-1.07 range, I rather keep it in canadian fund in case the dollar tankers again.

Welp Gold is hovering around 850, this is the last stand in my books, a fibonnaci support as well as 200 day. I hope it will hold otherwise short term gold outlook would be dim before making another run higher

When I bought into Yamana last week I accidently bought YRI instead of AUY, but I hope that that was a good move, and works to my advantage.:nut:

edit*: Ouch what a rough morning, YRI down 8%, VISA down 4.4% and TSX down nearly 600 pts already. Sigh, this sucks.

[djayz]

Wow wtf happened today haha.

Anybody think agrium or potash is a good pick up for the long from here?

I think the markets are beginning to over react now and all these huge losses day after day are just people scarred to shit selling anything they can. Not to mention stop losses being hit with these massive downward slopes right at open.

[TYMSMNY]

Reduced targets on AGU and POT by RBC. New targets at $105 and $250 respectively. Merrill downgraded the entire sector.

[djayz]

So they are basically off by their entire value. AGU trading below $50 and POT trading close to $100.


Market seems to be rebouding a little...not sure how high it's going to go but its going.

[SilverRex]

from gold seek

"A trump factor has entered the room. THE USDOLLAR & GOLD WILL SOON RESPOND TO THE FAILURE OF THE US FINANCIAL SYSTEM, WHICH COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN NATIONAL EMERGENCY, BANK HOLIDAY CLOSURES, AND TOTAL FRUSTRATION BY BANK LEADERS, AS NOTHING SUCCEEDS. The Wall Street bailout bill fixes nothing in bank system structure and integrity and function, as problems remain intact tragically. The United States controls the world reserve currency in the USDollar. In Hat Trick This late summer, my analysis stated that gold must make a difficult transition from an anti-US$ trade to a hedge against monetary inflation, a hedge against realized price inflation, and a hedge against geopolitical risk, even a national US banking collapse. Some movement has been made on the transition from the tunnel vision anti-US$ trade. One should keep focus on how the US official lending rate at 2.0% is more than 3% below the current suppressed Consumer Price Inflation rate. So money is actually free for those who can access that rate.



The USDollar increasingly is being defended by market interference mechanisms of the worst and most egregiously shameful order, such as a) restrictions to short financial stocks, even though they are insolvent and more illiquid by the week, b) calls to eliminate ‘Mark to Market’ accounting of bank assets, and c) the trusty Plunge Protection Team devices used to prop up stocks, bonds, and the US$ itself. The major currencies are all at risk actually. One contact with international connections recently wrote me, “The US$ will drop to 2.00 against the EUR not before long. And then the EUR will crash shortly thereafter.” Many fine analysts expect the USDollar to suffer a severe markdown as the recent US nationalizations and bailouts are fully digested. Their forecasts would coincide with the notion that the USTreasury Bond suffers a severe market interruption like a suspension or possible default, but then later the euro is victimized by new global gold-backed currencies. This is a very possible scenario.

"

I'm holding my own for gold on the long hual. Time to turn off the PC and sleep.. oh wait I have to work, dang

[TYMSMNY]

Merrill's analyst comments on the two.

Agrium Inc (AGU, $54.90)
Our $50 price objective for Agrium is based on a 4x multiple of our 2009 EPS estimate, well below historical trends, due to concerns that falling corn prices could lead to demand destruction for fertilizer. Risks to our estimates and price objective are sharply higher natural gas prices, adverse weather in the Cornbelt and western Canada, and a surge in Chinese sourced urea exports.


Potash Corp (POT, $128.04)
Our $100 price objective for Potash Corp. is based on a 5x multiple of our 2009 EPS estimate, well below historical trends, due to concerns that falling corn prices could lead to demand destruction for fertilizer. Risks to our estimates and price objective are new greenfield capacity announcements from a reputable producer and sharply lower grain prices. Terra Inds (TRA, $28.40))

[BigMass]

Originally posted by SilverRex
from gold seek

"A trump factor has entered the room. THE USDOLLAR & GOLD WILL SOON RESPOND TO THE FAILURE OF THE US FINANCIAL SYSTEM, WHICH COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN NATIONAL EMERGENCY, BANK HOLIDAY CLOSURES, AND TOTAL FRUSTRATION BY BANK LEADERS, AS NOTHING SUCCEEDS. The Wall Street bailout bill fixes nothing in bank system structure and integrity and function, as problems remain intact tragically. The United States controls the world reserve currency in the USDollar. In Hat Trick This late summer, my analysis stated that gold must make a difficult transition from an anti-US$ trade to a hedge against monetary inflation, a hedge against realized price inflation, and a hedge against geopolitical risk, even a national US banking collapse. Some movement has been made on the transition from the tunnel vision anti-US$ trade. One should keep focus on how the US official lending rate at 2.0% is more than 3% below the current suppressed Consumer Price Inflation rate. So money is actually free for those who can access that rate.



The USDollar increasingly is being defended by market interference mechanisms of the worst and most egregiously shameful order, such as a) restrictions to short financial stocks, even though they are insolvent and more illiquid by the week, b) calls to eliminate ‘Mark to Market’ accounting of bank assets, and c) the trusty Plunge Protection Team devices used to prop up stocks, bonds, and the US$ itself. The major currencies are all at risk actually. One contact with international connections recently wrote me, “The US$ will drop to 2.00 against the EUR not before long. And then the EUR will crash shortly thereafter.” Many fine analysts expect the USDollar to suffer a severe markdown as the recent US nationalizations and bailouts are fully digested. Their forecasts would coincide with the notion that the USTreasury Bond suffers a severe market interruption like a suspension or possible default, but then later the euro is victimized by new global gold-backed currencies. This is a very possible scenario.

"

I'm holding my own for gold on the long hual. Time to turn off the PC and sleep.. oh wait I have to work, dang

good post i agree with the assessment. Russia is currently talking about going to a gold back currency. So is China, India and Germany. Not good news for Fiat currency, good news for Gold. I'm actually loving these drops in gold as it gives me the opportunity to buy more at a low price.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BigMass


good post i agree with the assessment. Russia is currently talking about going to a gold back currency. So is China, India and Germany. Not good news for Fiat currency, good news for Gold. I'm actually loving these drops in gold as it gives me the opportunity to buy more at a low price.

I love it how China only has 1% of its reserve in Gold which is huge, because when China decides to unload their US dollar, and put it into other currency or even gold itself, all it takes is just a few % and it would move gold like no other.

I look at this US rally as chance to unwind, get out or hedge against it.

since I have a large position in AUY in US fund, I have decided to slowly exit and move my funds back into a Canadian dollar acccount and hold AUY(YRI) long term. This way I wont have to worry a weakening dollar.

But I will still have US equity. Unless someone can suggest a better way to invest in the USO fund for oil prices.

[Pacman]

I just picked up some QQQQ Nov $38 Calls.

I was going to buy the Oct, but wanted some extra time in case the market decides to rally.

[broken_legs]

"A strong military is what ultimately defines a strong reserve currency"

This is what they are spouting on CNBC this morning.



Schlum just hit 70 dollars this morning. WOW. Time to buy some more


SUNCOR at THIRTY FOUR DOLLARS!

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by broken_legs
"A strong military is what ultimately defines a strong reserve currency"

This is what they are spouting on CNBC this morning.


Not if you have to print billions per day to pay for it :rofl:

[Pacman]

Originally posted by broken_legs
"A strong military is what ultimately defines a strong reserve currency"

This is what they are spouting on CNBC this morning.



Schlum just hit 70 dollars this morning. WOW. Time to buy some more


SUNCOR at THIRTY FOUR DOLLARS!

Are you looking at any calls for SU?

The Nov $40 calls and Dec $40 calls look tempting.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by broken_legs
"A strong military is what ultimately defines a strong reserve currency"

This is what they are spouting on CNBC this morning.



ROFL man they're are in panic mode now if their solution is to threaten other countries into holding worthless US paper. Their statement is true, however it's just not sustainable.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Pacman


Are you looking at any calls for SU?

The Nov $40 calls and Dec $40 calls look tempting.

I'm staying away from options right now.

The values on calls and puts are confusing me. Ie there isn't the movement I'd expect when the stock moves. AND trading from the rig my RT options ticker keeps freezing because of the slow ass internet. Grrrr

Just going to play equities for now until things make more sense to me.

I did buy some January 15.00 puts on COF. WE'll see

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Dammit Pacman, I was being so smart and conservative until you got me thinking haha


I saw SU at 33.00 and I bought some 35.00 OCT calls.


I'm looking for everything to rebound tomorrow, if not, I guess I have till the 18th.... :drama:

[Beerking]

What a depressing day, losses galore.......looking forward to tomorrow and what will happen with the bailout.

Looks like beer it is tonight!:cry:

[SilverRex]

something tells me gold stock is way oversold and its only a matter of time once all this fear, panic, liquidation and stabalization of gold price sets in and over with. Gold and oil is the place to be.

I read a dozen article all pointing to the fact that it is more and more difficult to buy physical gold and demand is high. The current gold price has not reflected the true value.

Many gold mining company insider all agreed that gold is here to stay and forecast to reach higher in coming months. I last heard the base floor for mining company relative to its gold price and operation is at 800 dollars. We are at 83x.

Gold will move higher regardless the bailout goes thru or not. Short term everything is weak. Ultimately the passing of the bill is positive for gold because injecting that much money into the system will re-open the door to inflation. More and more countires and banks around the world are slowly converting their reserves to more bullion.

Many reason to own gold. Have some fun, buy alittle physical, etf fund as well as a few stocks. Hold it for a few years and prosper when others are freaking out ;)

I only see the current sell off in gold and gold stock as opporunity of a life time. Like buffet once said, if you love eating burgets everyday of your life, do you want the price of burgers to keep going up? of course not. you want it to drop so you can keep buying. I think gold has every reason to break this year's high, I'll have my popcorn ready and enjoy the fireworks. whos in with me

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Schwa]

Good analysis on gold. ^ Why do you suggest diversifying into different vehicles for gold, though? Can simply buying ETF's not be relied upon?

I couldn't buy more CNQ calls today, but I wanted to. Also bought 675 shares of paramount energy trust.

Harvest energy is also looking amazing at this price point. Yields percentages are in the high teens/low 20s for the two mentioned trusts.

I think oil is being unfairly hammered in this mess. If the markets rally, I think they will rebound highest as well so this presents a good buying opportunity.

I'm totally tapped out now though. I wish I had more money b/c this is like a garage sale.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Beerking]

TSX down 813 pts...yikes.

I am in YRI and am now pondering to get more, it dropped nearly 20% today, WTF!!!!! I do not know if I should splurge and buy more shares or start buying myself some bullion.... I smell mass fear and chaos in the next couple weeks/months.

[natejj]

I. Hate. The. Stock. Market.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hahaha i know me too
i wanted to get more cnq and su, but ddnt have more spare cash

how can i get into ETFs? can anyone recommend a gold etf?

ETF?

GLD is one under US fund
and for canadian
try

CEF or cef.a.to cant remember the synbol
its basically a fund in canada that invest in gold and silver bullion

[Canmorite]

T.HGU or T.HBU were mentioned already as well...

[cdnsir]

Originally posted by SilverRex
I think gold has every reason to break this year's high, I'll have my popcorn ready and enjoy the fireworks. whos in with me

+2

I'm ass deep in it already. The fact that potash dragged down the whole market today just blew my mind. I mean there has to be a major bounce back tomorrow. If not, I'm going step back for a while before I make anymore big moves.

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Canmorite
T.HGU or T.HBU were mentioned already as well...

best bet with good liquidity.

HGU = index of companies
HBU = gold bullion

[Schwa]

Did anyone pick up POT?

[BigMass]

i just went to buy more gold. They're sold out at Albern. No Maples. That kinda pissed me off. Anywhere else in town i can get 1oz maples?

[Schwa]

What is the difference in spot price vs futures?

[ckangarloo]

Anybody bought physical gold from Questrade online? Just saw they had the capability to do so.

[TYMSMNY]

^ you're not THAT worried are you? how many are you looking to buy?

[liquid1010]

No options chains for HBU or HGU :S

[TomK]

Originally posted by BigMass
i just went to buy more gold. They're sold out at Albern. No Maples. That kinda pissed me off. Anywhere else in town i can get 1oz maples?

Whoa, any idea when they will get more?

[liquid1010]

Interesting divergence between Yamana and Barrick over the past week. Charts are almost identical over the past year, however in the past week Yamana has been hammered, and Barrick hasn't dropped nearly as much. People aren't comfortable with Yamana's negative FCF... and those companies that are not historically steady strong earners are getting killed...

[Beerking]

Originally posted by BigMass
i just went to buy more gold. They're sold out at Albern. No Maples. That kinda pissed me off. Anywhere else in town i can get 1oz maples?

most major banks can get it for you.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

I believe the reason that the commodities are getting hammered is because of the hedge fund selling due to all of the redemptions they have been getting.


As I understand it Hedge funds can only be redeemed 4 times a year and have been seeling big time in anticipation of this.


Yamana has disappointed on production numbers, cost of production and profits several times. I think its one of the weaker gold miners from what I understand...

[liquid1010]

I don't trust Yamana in this environment, and it's definitely not a pure way to play this economic downturn. I'm into Barrick for a few calls tommorow morning, but Gold options as a whole are getting expensive.

[broken_legs]

Pre Market is looking good for tomorrow.

I'm sure the bill will pass, but I wonder if this bill isn't already priced into the market.

Now everyone is saying "Well the bill is good, but the market is still in trouble so the sell off will continue"

etc.. etc..


Thoughts?

[BigMass]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Pre Market is looking good for tomorrow.

I'm sure the bill will pass, but I wonder if this bill isn't already priced into the market.

Now everyone is saying "Well the bill is good, but the market is still in trouble so the sell off will continue"

etc.. etc..


Thoughts?

the futures are barely up at all. This bill won't do shit. I hope it passes and the market goes up so i can liquidate what i have left in my RRSPs and stick to cash and gold for the long term.

When you look at the overall fiat monetary system being at the early stages of a total collapse due to the fractional reserve system and debts that can never be paid, then you can see how this bill is a non-issue in the grand scheme of things.

IMO i'm heading for the proverbial "hills"