Official Short-term Investments Thread

[djayz]

I honestly hope the market tanks even with the passing of the bill. It's obviously a bandage to a huge problem and without some proper care it's just going to mess things up in the long term. Hopefully market tanks and they realize that something serious has to be done or else...

Plus I want some cheaper shares!!! :D

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BigMass


the futures are barely up at all. This bill won't do shit. I hope it passes and the market goes up so i can liquidate what i have left in my RRSPs and stick to cash and gold for the long term.

When you look at the overall fiat monetary system being at the early stages of a total collapse due to the fractional reserve system and debts that can never be paid, then you can see how this bill is a non-issue in the grand scheme of things.

IMO i'm heading for the proverbial "hills"

i agree
sort of like if I was max out on all my credits and cant come up with more cash to keep my monthly bills going, what the gov is doing is esentially giving me is increasing my credits. So really it didnt fix my problem, it just prolong my death and slowly I will add more debt.

Of course at least the only benefit of this is, you need money to make money. If the financial system completely shuts down, I guess there is no way in hell they can pay all that debt back. After all, banks make alot money during good times.

US is in deep shit and I think they have a way better chance betting their 700 billion on gold and oil and step in to
manipulate the market in such to drive the prices even higher . I mean come on if they buy all 700 billion worth of oil. They could easily double it in a year or two. Then use the profits to purchase more gold reserve for tha banking system to stabalize the currency.

I think a corrupted, messed up US financial system requires a corrupted messed up fix. A text book legal fix will only expose more problem and fear they already have.

In the end, the US isnt the only nation in the world. I think the rest of the world will come to their sense and as US rally, more and more countries will take the opporunity to unwind their holdings. That only means only thing as a result, even weaker US dollar and stronger gold prices. Mind you eve the current spot price do not reflect the true value of the demand out there. It is a matter of time, and many expert opinions points to a conspiracy where the US is trying to keep the gold prices down. After all, why wouldnt them? the higher gold prices translate to weaker green back.

If gold can move 400% in a few years, whats stopping it from going another 200% from current levels to 2000-3000/ounce. The 4 digit number looks impossible but if you think about it anything is possible. Just like how house price can shoot up to unrealstic levels when demand is there and people are willing to pay for it. I only continue to see the world flocking more to gold as a safer bet in rough times.

[SilverRex]

Here is my take on gold prices going forward.

The 8 year chart still looks good meaing Gold is still in a bullish trend. If there are any indication the last dip to 730s was a retest of the 2006 peak and breakout. This level is also the 1st fib retracement and a intersecting up trend which was quite powerful, I just didnt know it was this powerful when it pushed gold price to a record +80 dollars in one day.

I think the sudden huge surge in price caused gold to be unstable as all long and short sellers all scramble to cover, position hit, Stop loss triggered. (and I am sure the gov is doing all they could to continue to hold price down but i bet they are finding it more difficult as the financial turmoil and fear has injected much needed confidence back in to the yellow metal.

Prices were certainly oversold in the 900 area. And now we are at a 50% retracement of the recent high of 925-736.

Gold is trying to find a near term bottom. The next stop is 800-808 area, if this area doesnt hold. Gold would be heaed to test the uptrend setup weeks ago near 736 which is now closer to 750

So I suspect gold will find a bottom between 750-830. And if you look at the weekly chart, what excits me is that any significant rally in gold in around those area will form a reverse head & shoulder. The recent attampt to do the same with AUY/YRI and the HUI index failed and so the sell off was massive and hit was hard.

All we can hope ful is be patient. If the bailout goes thru, it is great news for gold bull because it only further weakens the dollar and strengths inflation. If the vote does not pass this may hurt all equity including gold stocks as every fund and investor will sell trying to liquidate their holdings, and in the sense value does not mean a thing when fear grips them.

What gold needs is direction. I see this bailout as a starting point of a new trend.

So therefore until Gold prices find a bottom in the range I mention above, its safer to wait alittle. At least until price can climb back above 864 is where we have the heaviest resistance.

And a quick stab at oil. Oil is looking mighty attractive at current levels but the breaches below its 50% retracement resistance at 98.5 only means one thing. Price should head towards 87-90 which is the last retracement and to my knowledge is a even greater support than price at 100. I believe you will get alot of buying then. So be patient just a tad longer. It's ironic that if oil does bouce off below 90, this would also form a positive divergence to price which is bullish when oil regains above 100.0 and so both oil and gold are shaping up a true bottom at the same time? who would of thought.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Here is my take on gold prices going forward.

The 8 year chart still looks good meaing Gold is still in a bullish trend. If there are any indication the last dip to 730s was a retest of the 2006 peak and breakout. This level is also the 1st fib retracement and a intersecting up trend which was quite powerful, I just didnt know it was this powerful when it pushed gold price to a record +80 dollars in one day.

I think the sudden huge surge in price caused gold to be unstable as all long and short sellers all scramble to cover, position hit, Stop loss triggered. (and I am sure the gov is doing all they could to continue to hold price down but i bet they are finding it more difficult as the financial turmoil and fear has injected much needed confidence back in to the yellow metal.

Prices were certainly oversold in the 900 area. And now we are at a 50% retracement of the recent high of 925-736.

Gold is trying to find a near term bottom. The next stop is 800-808 area, if this area doesnt hold. Gold would be heaed to test the uptrend setup weeks ago near 736 which is now closer to 750

So I suspect gold will find a bottom between 750-830. And if you look at the weekly chart, what excits me is that any significant rally in gold in around those area will form a reverse head & shoulder. The recent attampt to do the same with AUY/YRI and the HUI index failed and so the sell off was massive and hit was hard.

All we can hope ful is be patient. If the bailout goes thru, it is great news for gold bull because it only further weakens the dollar and strengths inflation. If the vote does not pass this may hurt all equity including gold stocks as every fund and investor will sell trying to liquidate their holdings, and in the sense value does not mean a thing when fear grips them.

What gold needs is direction. I see this bailout as a starting point of a new trend.

So therefore until Gold prices find a bottom in the range I mention above, its safer to wait alittle. At least until price can climb back above 864 is where we have the heaviest resistance.

And a quick stab at oil. Oil is looking mighty attractive at current levels but the breaches below its 50% retracement resistance at 98.5 only means one thing. Price should head towards 87-90 which is the last retracement and to my knowledge is a even greater support than price at 100. I believe you will get alot of buying then. So be patient just a tad longer. It's ironic that if oil does bouce off below 90, this would also form a positive divergence to price which is bullish when oil regains above 100.0 and so both oil and gold are shaping up a true bottom at the same time? who would of thought.

you're right on with your technical analysis. I’m buying on any dips and in the $750-$800 range I’ll buy heavy. They trick with gold is to buy it and hold it. That’s why I don’t advise even my friends to dump all their cash into gold because if you need the paper currency you could be taking a loss from short term swings in the price.

[SilverRex]

Here is some interesting numbers that I looked into.

Assuming the website source was credible.

Not including inflation adjustment.

1st bull rush

(15 years)
1932 at 20.67
1947 at 43.00 (+208%)

(8 years)
1947 at 43.00
1955 at 35.15 (-18%)

(8 years)
1966 at 35.40
1974 at 183.77 (+519%)

(2 years)
1974 at 183.77
1976 at 133.77 (-27%)

(4 years)
1976 at 133.77
1980 at 594.90 (+445%)

(14 years)
1987 at 486.50
2001 at 271.04 (-44%)

(7 years - ??)
2001 at 271.04
2008 at 911.42 (+336%)

I know history does not always repeat itself but you will notice the magic number for a bull or bear trend is 8 or 14/15 years)

Lets assume we are in a 15 year bull trend. That means we are only in the middle of it. Which suggest gold is still bullish. But even if the bull rush is about to end at 8 years. we are only in the 7th year, that means a new average high will be reached in 2009 in the 8th year if the run is to be faded. And even then like it did in 1974. It could retrace for 2 years and resume for another 4 years of bullish sentiment that totals what a concindent the magic number of 14/15 years.

So folks, from how I see it. we have at least 1 more year of strong gold prices. And this is conservative thinking. so if we even remotely fetch close to what it did back in 1966 gold run with 519% gain, then from our 2001 low we are headed towards 1400 in 2009 as a peak.

And if you notice, each gold bull and bear runs have been more powerful than previous. one can only fathom the 14 year gold bear will result in how many more years of gold bull?

if gold was to pull a 15 year run based on the 1966-1980 numbers. we could be heaed towards 4553/ouce with the 1680% from those years.

It is completely not far fetch given the rapid weakness of the US dollar.

[BigMass]

I hate using charts and trends for anything but short term analysis. If Russia drops a nuke tomorrow on NY how are those charts going to play out? If another bank fails how are those charts going to play out, if China and Russia decide to dump all their US dollars how are those charts going to play out. I feel we’re in a period now that will go down in history and those charts will be meaningless.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BigMass
I hate using charts and trends for anything but short term analysis. If Russia drops a nuke tomorrow on NY how are those charts going to play out? If another bank fails how are those charts going to play out, if China and Russia decide to dump all their US dollars how are those charts going to play out. I feel we’re in a period now that will go down in history and those charts will be meaningless.


If WW3 happens today, yes all bets are off. But define the term investment? One can only draw upon as much research and notes to make the best probable guess.

Charts and tools are just one item to consider. And if you dont look at them, then welcome to the world of casion where all odds are greatly stacked against you.

Charts and analysis at least gives you entry and exit points. For example if they were meaningless then why did gold price suddenly accelerated its drop to 820 when it broke thru 830 which was forming nicely this morning?

Charts and technical anlysis dont make you rich, but it sure will cut down your chances for loss and increase your margin for profit when good time rolls.

Thats the reason I bought AUY when it first dip to 9.26 and made some good coin there. without it I would have follow the blind and got myself trapped in the 14-16 dollars.

[BigMass]

I don't really look at gold as an investment. I look at gold as money and as a hedge.

If i want to make big gains i'd be looking at some battered stocks with good fundamentals. A good portfolio is always diversified. Gold is just one part of it.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BigMass
I don't really look at gold as an investment. I look at gold as money and as a hedge.

If i want to make big gains i'd be looking at some battered stocks with good fundamentals. A good portfolio is always diversified. Gold is just one part of it.

i agree

that is why I would also look at oil and gold both in stocks for risk play/high reward, funds and physical for complete diversification

[StupidWade]

Any opinions on Apple at $100?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by StupidWade
Any opinions on Apple at $100?

I think aapl is good at 100 if the bailout goes thru, just because if it doesnt, the volatility and panic could push all stock even lower. Only a stable financial will valuation becomes important. In a wide panic attack, even if aapl was at 10 dollars it wont matter

[bigbadboss101]

I sold some of my portfolio today and am looking for some buys. May be will pick up YRI, and a beaten down tech, or oil.

What are you buying today?

[StupidWade]

Originally posted by SilverRex


I think aapl is good at 100 if the bailout goes thru, just because if it doesnt, the volatility and panic could push all stock even lower. Only a stable financial will valuation becomes important. In a wide panic attack, even if aapl was at 10 dollars it wont matter

So, like a lot of things today, buyers and sellers aren't really thinking about the company or its value, but mostly about the results of the bailout vote.

I'm a noob, so I think I better stay out of crazytown and leave my cash in my mattress.

Thanks.

[Canmorite]

Long Euro looks like a good trade. 1.3780 now.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[BigMass]

Rockefeller bank says, "no bitch! you're mine"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081003/ap_on_bi_ge/wells_fargo_wachovia

[SilverRex]

man the sudden surge in the dollar is nuts. I suspect it has to do with the fact many other than panic selling are antcipating that the bailout will eventually happen and in doing so, everyone is coverting it to cash as they see a lower dollar coming.

this is like coaster going up before a huge fall. Everyone will be moving their dollar and taking advantage of the recent strength into other investment and assets.

Look for this US dollar strength to not last very long.

I will continue to try and convert all my USD holdings into a CAD holding.

[broken_legs]

SU options were bought at 1.90 yesterday are trading at 3.10 right now :bigpimp:


Shit Im at home and my cable box isnt working...

anyone know what time the vote is today?

Just sold my SU Calls. I'm trading blind, got no TV or CNBC, what to do what to do?

[broken_legs]

OK


Got my Cable going again,

The vote is about to commence. I will report live on here for you guys how the vote is going.

Last time you could actually see the dow sell off on each NO vote.

[TYMSMNY]

^ waiting for all the speeches.... :zzz:

[liquid1010]

Do you people not have jobs??!

[BigMass]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY
^ waiting for all the speeches.... :zzz:

so much bullshit, like it's going to change anyone's mind at this point

[broken_legs]

Just bought 60 contracts on AU for 8.00 @ 0.45

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by liquid1010
Do you people not have jobs??!
yes..... one with a tv. :D

I wonder what Gold will do with every YES vote....

[BigMass]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY

yes..... one with a tv. :D

I wonder what Gold will do with every YES vote....

i think everyone knows the bill will pass already. IMO it's priced into the market already. The market will explode, then most likely go back down once the traders are done making their quick buck.

Gold? who knows lol. I hope it goes down so i can buy more TBH

[TYMSMNY]

14min left till the final results!

[broken_legs]

89 YEA
34 NAY

EDIT:

Sorry they are voting on the senate adjustments to the bill right now

there will be another vote shortly after for final passage

[TYMSMNY]

^ yea, I just noticed that. Jeeze!! :zzz:

[broken_legs]

195 YEA
113 NAY


THIS IS THE FINAL VOTE ON PASSAGE!

EDIT:
BILL PASSES!!!


EDIT:

No one cheered in Chicago

Subdued cheering in NYSE

Dow is selling off.....



Fed May cut 0.5%

[broken_legs]

WTF


My globe Investor Gold Tracker just stopped updating....!

[djayz]

It's already been priced into the market. It was obvious to everyone that the bill would pass because that was the main reason they introduced a new bill.

Next week I predict some sell off but a little more stability and volatility should start toning down but people will still be scarred.

[broken_legs]

hahah


well I just closed my options on AUY, which just erased 80% of my profit from my SU calls today

:banghead:

[SilverRex]

like I said and as expected, bailout is called a bailout not a fix, the market still has issues.

for gold bulls

another good read

"The Street, and special circumstances, can temporarily push the dollar higher and Gold lower. However, with no self control existing at the Federal Reserve, the days of dollar appreciation are indeed numbered. With momentum traders at soon to be gone hedge funds pushing down Gold's price, investors should be stepping up to buy Gold. Momentum traders may punish Gold in the short-term, but with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet now out of control that situation can not persist. Total panic in Washington, as evident by the bank bailout bill, is giving investors a rare opportunity to preserve their wealth with Gold at these prices"

better convert your US dollar into CAD its going to drop fast (I think)

[Inzane]

Originally posted by djayz
Next week I predict some sell off but a little more stability and volatility should start toning down but people will still be scarred.

scarred, or scared?

[bigbadboss101]

Declining!

[djayz]

Originally posted by Inzane


scarred, or scared?

Both haha my finger twitched and I doubled up the r.

So do we consider this a sale and a bottom, or come monday do we start all over again and wait for another 700 billion dollar bill to be worked up and passed to bailout the original bill?

[liquid1010]

Doing well on my ABX calls today, but there is some serious manipulation on the options right now. Based on B&S, the calls were over priced yesterday, and are significantly underpriced right now - ABXJM.MX as an example.

[SilverRex]

"TGR: Will Wall Street take an interest in gold or the precious metals sector?

LJ: Gold mining will be the bright shining star. We are going to see a lot of eye-catching profits across the metals sector. Copper is one that’s most watched because it’s seen by some as a kind of economic indicator. But there’s something irresistible about gold. People will take notice if Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM) or Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX) can generate more profitable quarters, as they’ve had already this year.

TGR: Some speculate that a U.S. recession would drag China down and that would hurt copper.

LJ: Some believe that our economic woes are no longer relevant. But look at the worldwide repercussions of the sub-prime mess so far. Chinese exports are around 35% of GDP, with a little less than half or a third of that going to the U.S. A significant drop in exports to this country could have a significant impact, and a global recession could have a huge impact.

That having been said, most of China's growth engine is internally driven. There are a billion-plus Chinese who want refrigerators, cars, and all the goods associated with a better life style. And, unlike Americans, they have savings. So I don’t see China going into reverse being likely. Demand for resources will be great even with modest growth. They’re still building their infrastructure and will require more copper. Demand-side fundamentals in the Asian sector are very robust for the long term. There will be more short-term volatility.

We sometimes get a bad rap at Casey Research for having a bearish outlook on base metals. That's not our position. We believe that an economic blow up would result in a sharp correction over the short term and that would represent a great buying opportunity.
"

[Inzane]

Thoughts on TECH right now?

Stocks like Microsoft, Apple, Motorola, AMD, Intel, etc.?

[broken_legs]

I usually read about this kind of stuff in gold bug articles and the casey files but this time it was in the Globe n Mail so I thought I would share.



Central banks favour gold amid credit crisis
JAN HARVEY
13:00 EST Saturday, Oct 04, 2008

LONDON — Sales of gold by European central banks are likely to be lower than expected over the next year as the global banking crisis boosts bullion's appeal as a “safe” reserve asset.

And banks elsewhere in the world, most notably in Asia and the Middle East, may even become buyers of gold in an attempt to diversify their reserves away from the U.S. dollar, analysts say.

Under the terms of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, signed in 1999 by key European institutions including Germany's Bundesbank and the European Central Bank and renewed in 2004, members can sell up to 500 tonnes of gold a year.

But in the fourth year of the latest agreement, which ended last Friday, sales fell well short of this ceiling, to just over 357 tonnes.

With banks worried by the outlook for the financial sector, sales could be even lower in the final year of the pact.

“Given the damage done to a lot of other paper assets that were formerly considered secure, there will be greater risk aversion among central banks,” said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of metals consultancy GFMS. “This will only boost gold's status within central bank reserves.”

A key reason why central banks want to hold onto gold is the instability of their most common reserve asset, the dollar.

The U.S. currency slipped to record lows against the euro earlier this year, and although it has since taken on a firmer tone, doubts remain over its outlook.

“Gold assets have moved up in value in euro terms whereas dollar assets have fallen considerably,” Mr. Klapwijk said. “There has been a reassessment of gold given developments in last few years.”

Aside from the pressures associated with the current financial crisis, with a number of European central banks now having completed previously announced sales programs, analysts say a dip in selling is to be expected.

Germany's Bundesbank, with the second largest gold reserves in the world after the U.S. Federal Reserve, said this week it would make no gold sales over the next 12 months, aside from a small sale already agreed with its finance ministry.

The Swiss National Bank also said on Monday it had completed the sale of 250 tonnes of gold it announced last June, and had no plans for further sales.

The correction in the gold price from the all-time high of $1,030.80 (U.S.) an ounce it hit in March is also relieving some of the pressure on banks to sell gold to rebalance their reserves.

“One reason people had been selling was because the gold price had risen and therefore the reserve value, relative to foreign exchange, had increased,” said RBS Global Banking & Markets commodity strategist Nick Moore.

“There was some selling pressure in order to rebalance reserves back to levels people were comfortable with.

“The fall in the gold price from over $1,000 puts us in a situation where the percentage of gold as a proportion of banks' reserves will be lower, so that will take some pressure off for rebalancing,” he added.

CBGA signatories aside, some central banks are more likely to be buyers than sellers of gold as the outlook for financial markets and the dollar stays rocky, analysts say.

These purchases are most likely to come from Asian and Middle Eastern central banks looking to diversify their dollar assets into gold than their European counterparts.

“Central banks flush with dollars in Asia and the Middle East may try to diversify into gold,” said Calyon metals analyst Robin Bhar. “The argument in favour of that may have been made stronger by recent events, which may encourage more diversification away from depreciating currencies.”







Heres a nice little article from CBS.com about the National Debt in the US under George Bush...

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/09/29/couricandco/entry4486228.shtml


On the day President Bush took office, the national debt stood at $5.727 trillion. The latest number from the Treasury Department shows the national debt now stands at more than $9.849 trillion. That’s a 71.9 percent increase on Mr. Bush’s watch.

[broken_legs]

haha


Dow Futures are down 175 points on Sunday night. Looks like Monday will be fun!

[BigMass]

Originally posted by broken_legs
haha


Dow Futures are down 175 points on Sunday night. Looks like Monday will be fun!

think of the panic that will come once people realize this 700 billion will do nothing in fixing what is wrong with the financial system. They will realize that the government is out of bullets and can't do anything but let the free market wash away the mess so we can rebuild from the rubble. IMO it won’t be long now.

[djayz]

Originally posted by broken_legs
haha


Dow Futures are down 175 points on Sunday night. Looks like Monday will be fun!

Excellent...I can't wait for the TSX to hit 10000 :clap:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Beerking]

Originally posted by BigMass


think of the panic that will come once people realize this 700 billion will do nothing in fixing what is wrong with the financial system. They will realize that the government is out of bullets and can't do anything but let the free market wash away the mess so we can rebuild from the rubble. IMO it won’t be long now.

Too bad it is already coming out of taxpayers pockets.



Originally posted by djayz


Excellent...I can't wait for the TSX to hit 10000 :clap:

I do not think that 900 is out of the question now.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Beerking


I do not think that 900 is out of the question now.


I think there's support for the TSX around 7000. Lets hope it doesn't get to 900.

:eek:

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Beerking


Too bad it is already coming out of taxpayers pockets.




I do not think that 900 is out of the question now.

Well, there is a theory that the price of Gold and the DOW will meet up somewhere at a 1:1 ratio.

http://www.miningstocks.com/pics/dow_gold_ratio.png

[e36bmw///]

nm

[natejj]

Anyone see a bottom for oil coming up anytime soon? I mean, how is it we were at $150 a month or two ago, yet about to break $90?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow asia is down 515
waitning to see what europe is gonna do


Asia and Europe are down 5%:eek:

[SilverRex]

excellent, oil is coming down as predicted. the 85-87 dollar is going to be a very nice target for entry.

that means USO should land some where in the 68-70 dollar play. If that happens I'm going to scoup up a double position here. why? because when USO heads back up to 100 I will unwind half my position. A high probability that in order oil to lift off, it will have to find a bottom and whats better to form a inverted h&S around the 87-90 dollars area.

Then I will be set for years at those prices.

Second, finally dollar index keeps gainning strength but whats interesting today is GOLD price still went up, its now up 33 dollars. Which is very nice.

I continue to predict gold has one more push above 1033-1433 if my caculations are correct that we will at least see 8 years of gold bull just like the last 2 times in the 70+ years. I dont even need gold to hit a 14-15 year run as most are saying.
Right now despite the bailout, looks like all stocks are getting hit hard, even Visa has nothing holding for them now AH at 54.00 it could head to 50 and 44 IPO price, I would now stay away from them since the failing of banks tells me it wont go so well for credit card companies because banks will issue less cards. Visa and Mastercard will only shine when the market equity is back on track and stable, and that is exactly whats not happening here.

:D see you guys 6 months from now and cha ching

[BigMass]

Originally posted by SilverRex
excellent, oil is coming down as predicted. the 85-87 dollar is going to be a very nice target for entry.

that means USO should land some where in the 68-70 dollar play. If that happens I'm going to scoup up a double position here. why? because when USO heads back up to 100 I will unwind half my position. A high probability that in order oil to lift off, it will have to find a bottom and whats better to form a inverted h&S around the 87-90 dollars area.

Then I will be set for years at those prices.

Second, finally dollar index keeps gainning strength but whats interesting today is GOLD price still went up, its now up 33 dollars. Which is very nice.

I continue to predict gold has one more push above 1033-1433 if my caculations are correct that we will at least see 8 years of gold bull just like the last 2 times in the 70+ years. I dont even need gold to hit a 14-15 year run as most are saying.
Right now despite the bailout, looks like all stocks are getting hit hard, even Visa has nothing holding for them now AH at 54.00 it could head to 50 and 44 IPO price, I would now stay away from them since the failing of banks tells me it wont go so well for credit card companies because banks will issue less cards. Visa and Mastercard will only shine when the market equity is back on track and stable, and that is exactly whats not happening here.

:D see you guys 6 months from now and cha ching

problem with Visa and MC is that people will start defaulting on those just as they are on their houses.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BigMass


problem with Visa and MC is that people will start defaulting on those just as they are on their houses.

no kidding,

all stocks are ready to make new 52 weeks low, insane. apple could see 80s today.

the only thing up premarket is , gold stocks lol

[BigMass]

Originally posted by SilverRex


no kidding,

all stocks are ready to make new 52 weeks low, insane. apple could see 80s today.

the only thing up premarket is , gold stocks lol

gold is up while the US dollar is up. That's very bullish. Once the US dollar tanks gold is going to explode IMO

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by BigMass


problem with Visa and MC is that people will start defaulting on those just as they are on their houses.

Except Visa does not have any credit risk. The issuing banks hold the credit line. We're seeing less people spending their discretionary income therefore less transactions. That's partly how VISA makes their $$.

$85 oil isn't farfetched at all. We're at ~90. Look at all these big oil/natgas companies. Suncor down to 32.50 on the TSX... Encana down to 56.25. It'll be awhile before things stabalize out around the world.

A gold/silver trust, GTU.UN. not a recommendation but an idea.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY


Except Visa does not have any credit risk. The issuing banks hold the credit line. We're seeing less people spending their discretionary income therefore less transactions. That's partly how VISA makes their $$.

$85 oil isn't farfetched at all. We're at ~90. Look at all these big oil/natgas companies. Suncor down to 32.50 on the TSX... Encana down to 56.25. It'll be awhile before things stabalize out around the world.

A gold/silver trust, GTU.UN. not a recommendation but an idea.

didn’t know that the issuing banks held the risk. So the only risk to Visa is a drop in sales?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY


Except Visa does not have any credit risk. The issuing banks hold the credit line. We're seeing less people spending their discretionary income therefore less transactions. That's partly how VISA makes their $$.




People will be shopping less. The once mighty consumer is now at home cooking home made meals, wearing year old shirts, holey socks, and ripped jeans.

I would expect credit card transactions to go down.

HOLY CRAP

DOw just broke 10,000!!! 9988!!!!

EDIT:
SU @ 28.50!!!!
CHK@ 25.00!!!
SLB @ 67!!!!

[BigMass]

the end of an erra

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BigMass


Well, there is a theory that the price of Gold and the DOW will meet up somewhere at a 1:1 ratio.

http://www.miningstocks.com/pics/dow_gold_ratio.png

so what does that translate to in dow and gold numbers?

[BigMass]

Originally posted by SilverRex


so what does that translate to in dow and gold numbers?

well, nobody has a crystal ball. Peter Schiff said, "at some point they will meet again". Is it possible? I think so.

Remember, gold and the dow are already close to a 10:1 ratio from as high as 44:1 during the Nasdaq bubble.

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by BigMass


didn’t know that the issuing banks held the risk. So the only risk to Visa is a drop in sales?

Their revenue model = transactions + $ volume. Less people using credit, smaller purchases = slow times at VISA.

TSX down 860. It's been picking up steam on the downside all morning.

[Beerking]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY


Their revenue model = transactions + $ volume. Less people using credit, smaller purchases = slow times at VISA.

TSX down 860. It's been picking up steam on the downside all morning.

IT is going to be a sweet day. If only I hadn't spent all my cash already...firggin fire sale.:hitit:

[bigbadboss101]

At this rate my portfolio is gonna be down 90%. It's crazy out there.

[TYMSMNY]

TSX down over 1000 points.

*cough* edit... close to down 1200. Buying pieces of Suncor, EPCOR, and some Oilexco.

[Z_Fan]

Well, my Bank thinks I'm a multi-millionairre today.

http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i141/photodump_2006/Junk/bigooops.jpg

Unfortantely it's just some kind of mistake. But I woke up, saw the TSX and DOW and went

:eek:

I logged on to my account and went....

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

[Schwa]

It's over 9000!!!!!!!

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Well, my Bank thinks I'm a multi-millionairre today.

http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i141/photodump_2006/Junk/bigooops.jpg

Unfortantely it's just some kind of mistake. But I woke up, saw the TSX and DOW and went

:eek:

I logged on to my account and went....

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

quick.... liquidate and withdraw. :D

[djayz]

Fire sale for sure, just what I was hoping for and expecting :D

I'm all tapped out of cash now :(

[dezmarez]

wow :barf:

[djayz]

Markets already rebounding...imagine all the stop losses that got taken out near the 10000 level :eek:

[dezmarez]

what does everyone think it will finish at by days end?

[SilverRex]

RIMM under 60 bucks lol

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by SilverRex
RIMM under 60 bucks lol

Analyst TP = $50.00. Both personal and corporate financial status' isn't helping their cause either.

[SilverRex]

wow noticed something strange

HUI index is hit 249 formed and double bottom and is surging back up.

it was scary.

AUY just dip 17% to 6 bucks and now has rebounded 10% to 6.59+

wtf?

could it be that the initial sell off panic, and now everyone holding cash is moving to gold

[djayz]

All analysts will start reducing the target prices now because they don't want to look stupid by keeping them high up. But in reality this would be the time to keep the target prices higher because everyone is over reacting and selling without valuating any of these companies.

If you're in your mid 20s or 30s and have a shit load of cash right now I would be buying like a mad man because later on down the road some of these stocks will have taken off like google did back in the day.

[sneek]

Originally posted by SilverRex
RIMM under 60 bucks lol

LOL AAPL is almost 1/2 the price i bought it at...it will probs be ~80 by the end of the week with the way things are going now.

[dezmarez]

people in canada trade to much with emotion and panic, look at the tsx compared to the nasdaq or the dow were always down an extra 3-4%
makes me so mad

[SilverRex]

what im waiting for is a emergency rate cut to pop the stocks and gold alike. then I will take some money and profit off the table

[djayz]

Originally posted by dezmarez
people in canada trade to much with emotion and panic, look at the tsx compared to the nasdaq or the dow were always down an extra 3-4%
makes me so mad

While that is true alot of the investments in Canadian companies come from American's and when things like this are going down they tend to liquidate their positions outside of their own country because they think it's our economy thats crashing :facepalm:

[djayz]

Originally posted by SilverRex
what im waiting for is a emergency rate cut to pop the stocks and gold alike. then I will take some money and profit off the table

Haha the US might get Martial Law before a rate cut.

[SilverRex]

just in case somes are really panicing

here is a way to give you that 8-9% pump

really depends on when you converted your CAD to USD fund for trading

but if you had something that is down 10% today. you can consider the idea of selling it and moving it back to CAD fund since the exchange rate is like 1.10 ish right now, it will give you back 10%

of course this only works if you had started your USD fund trading account when the lonnie was strong at par.


in doing this you also have to believe the dollar will loose over time. and I believe that too, the sudden jump in dollar strength is most likely due to people liquidating all their holdings and temporary converts back to USD fund. But once people start moving it to other investment such as gold or euro, then it will start to crash

[rc2002]

Originally posted by BigMass

well, nobody has a crystal ball.

Exactly. All those people making predictions about the future and about oil and gold prices are only guessing. They don't know much more than any of us.

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by richardchan2002


Exactly. All those people making predictions about the future and about oil and gold prices are only guessing. They don't know much more than any of us.

edit: Hopefully they know MUCH more than us. Afterall.. they are the professionals. Everything is a "guess" at this point in time.

[broken_legs]

just bought 100 shares of DXD on the rebound in the dow at 73.28

10 minutes later its 74.24



I hope the dow tanks!

[Canmorite]

Where is the strength in the US dollar coming from? It's on a fucking rampage...

[BigMass]

People dumping stocks moving to US dollars for safety. However, IMO take this opportunity to unload any US dollar you own. This is the last breath before the crash.

[Beerking]

Wow the drama... it is like a soap opera, I cannot keep my eyes off.


Work? What work?:nut:

[Canmorite]

Apparently people in EU and UK are looking to the FX markets for funding, and dumping reserves us Euro and Pound to build cash reserves.

The first time I've seen the dollar up, and gold up so dramatically in the same day. What a disconnect...

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Apparently people in EU and UK are looking to the FX markets for funding, and dumping reserves us Euro and Pound to build cash reserves.

The first time I've seen the dollar up, and gold up so dramatically in the same day. What a disconnect...

Actually, what I’m reading is that funds that are unloading are covering large short positions in the dollar. So the large reason the dollar is going up is short covering. Which will eventually stop and the dollar will unravel. I don’t see gold under $1000 for much longer.

Remember just recently Goldman Sachs went net long on gold.

[SilverRex]

you can feel it, people dont realize that gold is volatile because there are so many uncertinity around the market right now. Its a tug of war out there, people selling, short covering, buying, panic selling. Once the panic stops (as in no one left standing) no one buying or selling, and the market becomes quiet. I think thats when you load up.

a stable market is what we need for us long on gold stocks because you still need investor and its only then when valuation comes back to play. right now all numbers are out the window until the panic stops.

I think it will all start with the rumor global rate cut or US cut which ever comes first.

[SilverRex]

how many saw JC's get out now video
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1223308660.php

if his reputation holds. watch the market rebound lol I actullay love it when he says that, which means the bottom could be around the corner.

[rc2002]

Originally posted by BigMass
People dumping stocks moving to US dollars for safety. However, IMO take this opportunity to unload any US dollar you own. This is the last breath before the crash.

The only reason the US dollar is going up is because the traders have more confidence that the US has the ability to properly rescue it's financial system. Whereas the European nations are having a much harder time coordinating efforts to bailout their economies.

I doubt we'll see a US dollar crash. There's too much riding on it right now.

[cdnsir]

^^

I don't know about that. The way they're splurging on the bailout and this speculated rate cut. They'll be hit with inflation pretty damn hard. It's just a matter of time.

[leec001]

TSX loss challenges Black Monday
Derek Abma, Canwest News Service
Published: Monday, October 06, 2008
One week after the Toronto Stock Exchange's composite index recorded its biggest one-day point loss in history, it was flirting with a percentage decline that came close to its worst day ever in that regard - Black Monday of 1987.

At about 11 a.m., the S&P/TSX composite index was down 1,185.42 points, or 10.97 per cent, to 9,617.93. If it had fallen a little further down and stayed there, it would've broken the record 11.32 per cent drop of Oct. 19, 1987.

Canadian and U.S. stock benchmark indexes - the TSX composite and Dow Jones industrial average, respectively - both plunged below the 10,000-point mark on Monday for the first time since 2005 following an overseas sell-off sparked by the growing crisis in the financial sector and mounting fears of a global recession.

In early afternoon trading, there had been some recovery in the TSX composite. It was down 639.41 points, or 5.9 per cent, to 10,163.94. The Dow was off by 555.54 points, or 5.4 per cent, to 9,769.84. The Nadsaq composite index was down 121.6 points, or 6.4 per cent, to 1,825.79. The S&P 500 had declined 66.43, or six per cent, to 1,032.80.

"At this point, it just looks like massive liquidation where hedge funds and traders are selling equities to make margin calls," said Robert Kavcic, economic analyst with BMO Capital Markets.

He added that real economy issues, like earnings expectations in a sluggish economy, are starting to increasingly influence stock values.

Energy was accounting for more than 40 per cent of the decline on the TSX composite. Financials and materials were also leading sectors in bringing the main index down.

Among the stocks making the biggest impact: Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. was down $11.71, or 11.5 per cent, to $90.50; Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. was down $6.01, or 9.4 per cent, to $57.91; Suncor Energy Inc. had fallen $5.10, or 14 per cent, to $31.34; and Research In Motion Ltd. was down $4.25, or 6.4 per cent, to $61.78.

The Canadian dollar dipped below 90 cents US, down from its Friday close of 92.46 cents US. At noon, it was trading at 90.69 cents US.

Crude oil was down $3.98 to 89.90 US a barrel in New York.

Earlier Monday, Asian and European markets tumbled as international investors responded to doubts about the success of the U.S. government's $700-billion US bailout bill passed Friday.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 3.35 per cent, with all 43 of the index's blue chip stocks decreasing.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225, the Tokyo-based stock exchange of top Japanese companies, closed 4.25 per cent from Friday to hit its lowest level since February 2004.

European markets saw similar losses across the continent as German officials offered a blanket bank deposit guarantee and French banking giant BNP Paribas announced a $20.1-billion US deal to take over Fortis, a financial group.

The FTSE 100, the London exchange of Europe's top shares, closed down 7.9 per cent. Germany's DAX index slipped 7.1 per cent and the France's CAC 40 fell nine per cent.

On Friday, North American markets closed slightly lower after the U.S. House of Representative's vote on the bailout bill.

The TSX benchmark closed down 1.3 per cent at 10,803.05 points and the Dow ended down 1.5 per cent to close at 10,325.38.

[liquid1010]

Does anyone know where I can find index charts (ie:TSX S&P) for a period longer than 5 years. I'd prefer interactive, but I'll take whatever.

I've tried stockcharts, bigcharts, google, yahoo, etc.

Any suggestions?

[djayz]

globeinvestor should have it. I think it goes to 10 years and inception

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by liquid1010
Does anyone know where I can find index charts (ie:TSX S&P) for a period longer than 5 years. I'd prefer interactive, but I'll take whatever.

I've tried stockcharts, bigcharts, google, yahoo, etc.

Any suggestions?

Stockscores.com. Enter symbol, at the bottom select the charts tab and then select 72 months, create chart...

[Aleks]

I've got a big cheque here in USD from selling a bunch of stocks a few weeks ago. Wonder if I should convert to CAD today or wait and see what happens later this week :dunno:

[Schwa]

Anyone looking at Suncor at its current price? P/E is ~9 right now!