Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bigbadboss101]

Gold price up, gold stock down. Anyone buying today?

I had a chance to sell earlier this morning and YRI since has moved about $0.70 down.

[Supa Dexta]

Originally posted by Inzane


Ah, well that should be common sense, right? :nut:

Not really when people buy in, then it starts to slip... The get a little uneasy but figured "hey I bought some for more then this".. So they load up with even more, and it continues to slip and then they freak out and sell...

[djayz]

In a situation like this you have to have your own plan and own ideas of what to do with your money.

Listening to all these guys on BNN saying don't do this, do this, stay away from this will just confuse the shit out of you and make you lose money.

Honestly if you had a strong portfolio before this happened and the holdings that you had still have good fundamentals then you would be stupid not to average down. Also it all depends on the time you have what your goals are. Everyone's investments are different so be your own investor.

The lady on BNN right now is saying to AVERAGE DOWN haha the exact opposite, shes positive that the market will grow over time and it only makes sense. You look at the TSX from day one and sure there were down years down decades but overall it goes up. Just like theres a bull market there a bear market so wait it out and invest. :thumbsup:

Edit: and if you're a savvy investor like some of the guys in this thread you can make money in any type of market.

[TYMSMNY]

You're going to get different views on the show. Be funny if they ALL said the same thing.. then we'd know something was up.

on another note..
"Berlusconi Says Markets May Be Shut; G-7 Seeks United Remedy"


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=&sid=abGxpsTNgsPw

[Pacman]

What do you guys think about the December $30 Suncor calls?

Trading at 1.95 right now...

[SilverRex]

wow gold dropped 100 bucks today

and the only explination I read are investors selling metal to raise cash

[ckangarloo]

This makes no sense to me.

[Inzane]

All our base are belong to them. :nut:

[rc2002]

Originally posted by SilverRex
wow gold dropped 100 bucks today

and the only explination I read are investors selling metal to raise cash

I thought gold was a safe haven during market turmoil for the longest time too. But I got burned on it, and I'm pretty bitter about it. haha.


TSX just broke the 9000 mark.

[broken_legs]

UMMMM

wtf happened to gold man?


EVERYONE on CNBC is saying the market is coiled up like a spring ready to explode

saying that there is 50 TRILLION dollars in treasuries right now that is going to be coming into the market at any moment blah blah blah

Meanwhile we are seeing equities, gold, commodities, oil, everything sell off today.

Is today the bottom???

[SilverRex]

as long as 8000 holds I see the rally in the last hour + monday.

the weekend should help, calm the fear so that most investor can chew the week over and move from panic to fearful to its reality start over

mind you gold will eventually move back to its place, but right now anything is weak, everyone is selling anything to raise capital.

Scary times? or opporunity for the greedy. I bet Buffet is laughing at all the deals out there.

[djayz]

I'm laughing and picking up anything I can right now. This is like boxing day in october!

Just wish the rest of my money wasnt already tied up in other holdings or I would be making etrade alot of commision money :rofl:

[rc2002]

Might still have some room to fall yet below 8000. Some markets in Asia are down more than 60% from their highs. We're only about 40% down.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081007.RDECLOET07/TPStory/TPBusiness/



Why this slump will be 'long and deep'

DEREK DeCLOET

[email protected]

E-mail Derek DeCloet | Read Bio | Latest Columns
October 7, 2008


A global recession may be near, but the global bear market has already arrived, and my, what teeth it has.

After yet another Monday horror show - the fourth in a row in which the Dow Jones industrial average dropped at least 300 points - every one of the world's major equity markets has shed at least one-quarter of its value so far in 2008.

On the bright side, when it's this bad, how much worse could it get?

Much, much worse, says one of the few investors who has prospered in the meltdown.

"Stock markets are not down 50 per cent in Canada or the United States from their highs. They've got a long ways to go down before that happens," says Prem Watsa, chairman of Fairfax Financial Holdings.

Uh-oh.

"We think there's a significant recession coming, long and deep. It's going to spread all across [the world] ... It's very difficult to not be caught by it."

Yikes. But surely there are reasons for hope.

The world's central banks have moved to Defcon 1. There's talk of a co-ordinated cut in interest rates. And don't forget about that $700-billion (U.S.) bailout for bankers.

"It will be difficult for the Fed to do too much now," with the key lending rate already down to 2 per cent," Mr. Watsa says.

"This $700-billion all sounds good. But they [the central bankers] have no ammo."

Considering the source, this is worrisome news. A lot of people will claim they saw the credit fiasco coming, but Mr. Watsa is one of the few who can prove it.

He can pull out a letter to shareholders that he wrote in 2004, in which he warned about the evils and risks of "bonds that are backed by home equity loans, automobile loans or credit card debt" and hinted that maybe the rating agencies were a tad too eager to give those bonds a triple-A gold star. Or he can just point to the Fairfax bank account, flush with the proceeds of a large and highly profitable bet on a financial nuclear winter. Fairfax has turned a $1.65-billion (U.S.) profit from buying and selling credit default swaps - a form of credit insurance, essentially - and was sitting on another $447-million in gains from those investments, as of Sept. 19.

So, when he speaks of recession and credit catastrophes, it's time to listen.

Do not expect that a sharp contraction in the economy will purge the toxic debt and bring on a quick recovery, Mr. Watsa says. The Great Unwinding is the end of "a 20-year phenomenon of excess optimism ... so I don't think we should expect it [to be over in] six months."

The bailout, passed last week by the U.S. Congress and signed into law by President George W. Bush, may help. But it could prove to be a mixed blessing. As the program begins to buy unwanted mortgage debt from banks, it will establish new (and probably low) market prices for that debt, which means the stuff that remains on financial balance sheets will have to be marked down, too. So expect a new round of writeoffs and pain in the banking system. "It's not easy to solve," he says, "other than [with] time."

Fairfax remains positioned for worse times to come. Seventy per cent of the company's investment portfolio is cash and government bonds. The parent company has $1.1-billion in cash and securities as of the end of June, but Mr. Watsa has no plans to spend very much of it - not even picking over the remains of insurance rival American International Group, which is being disassembled by the U.S. government, though Fairfax may try to buy some AIG "crumbs."

This much is certain: He's in no rush to buy stocks. Sure, sometimes a desperate seller comes to Mr. Watsa with an offer that just can't be refused - as an Australian agrifood company just did, selling Fairfax a majority stake in its Canadian subsidiary for less than its balance-sheet value.

But in the bigger scheme of things, this is no buying opportunity in the equity markets. There's not enough despair yet, little sense of capitulation. When will that day come? "You'll know about it when no one here is optimistic, perhaps including us. You'll know when there's no expectation of a turn. We're not seeing that, by the way. Everybody's looking at the point to buy.

"In September, there were redemptions [of mutual funds], significant redemptions ... But history shows you've got to have months of redemptions. That's an indication that people are losing their confidence and want to be out of the market.

"You'll see the average pension fund going down to 30 per cent, 40 per cent equity allocation. ...'Stock' will be a bad word. You'll see all that for some time before you have to react."

And in the meantime? Bolt the doors. Hunker down. Hoard your cash. If you owe, repay your bankers.

"This is the time to be cautious in your own finances - to get out of debt, to not buy the big car you don't need," says Mr. Watsa.

"This will pass. But you have to survive it."

[SilverRex]

welp typical bear market in its final leg falls sharp and hard, but at the same time it can quickly bouce back before stabalizing it self.

I can see a 1000pt rally but when is it? monday?

stocks cant go to zero.

Let have a good long weekend and forget about this whole money thing. :)

[leec001]

Well, getting there (below 8000 pts) ....................not too far.
It is just the beginning..............relax.

[TYMSMNY]

Stocks can get pretty darn close to 0...... and then get dropped from the exchanges and become pinkies. LOL.

The only problem at these levels is that there is a no "bottom". Who knows where it'll fall to? technicals have gone off... support levels being surpassed. Fundamentals? hmm..

[Inzane]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Let's have a good long weekend and forget about this whole money thing. :)

Agreed.

As long as there isn't a big run on turkeys and pumpkin pie at the grocery stores this weekend. :nut:

Gotta have turkey and pumpkin pie.

[djayz]

2 words...overreaction, oversold.


Everyone knows that this type of crisis is going to end eventually so why go crazy about it. If you're retiring in a year or two different story I would be scared too. But for anybody under 40 making income that they can live off just lay off the sell button and wait.

Those who say there may not be a bottom are wrong, 0 is the bottom, think of it the other way. There is no limit as to how high we can go.

My strategy until I'm tapped out of cash is to go 60% long term 30% short which is 2-3 day trades if possible and 10% cash, although this is probably just going to end up as part of the long term holds because everything is so damn cheap!

People will come back after stuffing their stomachs full of turkey and see that things aren't so bad and then next week things will begin picking up again. I thiink everyone just needs a break to think about whats going on.

[dezmarez]

i sure hope your right!! haha
the only thing is that nothing like this has ever happend before so nobody really knows how far down everything can go.

[max_boost]

Looks like a good time to continue to top up on those mutual funds for the long term. Yesterday closed at around 9500 and I entered there.

Every time the index drops another 500-1000pts, I'll put in a little bit more money. Continue to average down. It's too risky and limited funds so can't put it into any individual stock right now + the fees would eat it up.

[djayz]

Originally posted by max_boost
Looks like a good time to continue to top up on those mutual funds for the long term. Yesterday closed at around 9500 and I entered there.

Every time the index drops another 500-1000pts, I'll put in a little bit more money. Continue to average down. It's too risky and limited funds so can't put it into any individual stock right now + the fees would eat it up.

Exactly what I'm doing. Everyday I've been buying my bottom 3 holdings to increase my position. If at anytime there is 2-300 profit I take it but I usually end up putting it back into the stock.
I used to hold 18 stocks now I'm holding 5 stocks and 2 funds, got rid of all the garbage and now just hold some long term things.

Mutual funds may be great to get into now just don't go chasing sectors that might not make it out of this bear market. So far my concensus is that financials will be the first out followed by commodities.

[dezmarez]

http://finance.google.ca/finance?q=TSE%3AHXD

"HXD" would have been a great pick up back in June when the tsx was above 15000 points

[SilverRex]

welp what did I say, looks like a good rally in the final hour, hopefully this will set off a semi-rally on monday unless more bad news hit the fan.

[max_boost]

I'm hoping this is the right fund to be in. No longer chasing ridicular returns but just steady ones.

RBC Canadian Dividend
http://www.globefund.com/servlet/Page/document/v5/data/fund?style=na_eq&id=18182&gf_uid=globeandmail.gf.02270155444

[dezmarez]

Originally posted by SilverRex
welp what did I say, looks like a good rally in the final hour, hopefully this will set off a semi-rally on monday unless more bad news hit the fan.


haha your sick
i hope tsx finishes in the greeeen

[Inzane]

Look at Apple!

[mac_82]

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm hoping this is the right fund to be in. No longer chasing ridicular returns but just steady ones.

RBC Canadian Dividend
http://www.globefund.com/servlet/Page/document/v5/data/fund?style=na_eq&id=18182&gf_uid=globeandmail.gf.02270155444

I hope it is the right fund too. I have been in it since 05.

[Z_Fan]

RBC Canadian Dividend fund is -33.3% so far this year.

Nothing good about it folks. I've been in it for years too, but it's doing the same thing as the stock market. Going down the shitter.

It _WAS_ a good fund. Now it sucks.

You'd have been better off buying a GIC 2 years ago because you'd actually be ahead versus holding this RBC fund and having lost your ass this year.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by mac_82


I hope it is the right fund too. I have been in it since 05.

And prices today are where they were 3 years ago. An excellent time to buy. Who knows how much more the TSX index is going to drop ....... we'll just have to see but I'm ready to increase my position anytime. It'll be damn nice when things bounce back and reach 15,000 hahahah :D

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
RBC Canadian Dividend fund is -33.3% so far this year.

Nothing good about it folks. I've been in it for years too, but it's doing the same thing as the stock market. Going down the shitter.

It _WAS_ a good fund. Now it sucks.

You'd have been better off buying a GIC 2 years ago because you'd actually be ahead versus holding this RBC fund and having lost your ass this year.

Yes true, it's linked very closely to the TSX. Also depends where your entry point is, no different than any other stock.

But if you think about it:

$50 RBC fund = 14000 TSX index
$35 RBC fund = 9500 TSX index

The index isn't going to stay at 9000 forever right?

This fund is no load. $500 minimum and $25 subsequent. If you buy on days when the market is down 300-500 pts, you keep your avg cost low.

I think this is a good method of investing for those who don't have a lot of money to throw into the large caps. Unlike stocks there are penalties if you sell the fund with in a certain time period and you can't just buy/sell the fund. After you sell it, you will have to wait 6 months before you buy back in again. But then this is a long long long term investment. If you get in cheap enough, you can just let the thing swing around until you retire lol

Make sense?!

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[TYMSMNY]

^ time frame? It'll go back to $100 for sure.

Lets face it.. if analysts can't get figure out a number, your guess is as good as mine.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Supa Dexta]

I don't see oil going back to 100$ this year, unless there is another big event. Storm season is winding down, been no news of any conflicts building lately over seas... sooo down she goes...

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey rex
when do you think oil will go back up to 100s?

well if oil was able to hold above 85 it would be easy. but now that it didnt and you can tell it feels like no one is buying anything oil could see at least 70-75

but at the same time winter is upon us, I would say it would dip lower before going higher. if you can easily buy and hold at least 6 months or more, then it would make sense to get anything near and blow 80, other wise its better to wait till the market finds a bottom

Truely the panic has been way over done and way over sold. With the election in novemver. I do believe we will see a significant rally but what will be that catalyst or reason we will have to wait and see.

[broken_legs]

expect OPEC to cut back on production

Expect that it will never be as high as it was in 2005....

If you believe in Peak Oil, we've already peaked.

It's only a matter of time before Oil goes through the roof again.


Now whats interesting is that you're probably going to see a lot of oil sands and exploration work put off due to low oil prices, which will reduce production even further and of course cause a bigger spike next time the cycle comes around. Commodity cycles....

[djayz]

Haha it only lasted a few hours but someone atleast got a picture :rofl:

http://gothamist.com/attachments/jen/2008_10_bluebull.jpg

And another one...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3158/2927365927_922dfa4fc5.jpg?v=1223600629

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by djayz
Haha it only lasted a few hours but someone atleast got a picture :rofl:

http://gothamist.com/attachments/jen/2008_10_bluebull.jpg

And another one...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3158/2927365927_922dfa4fc5.jpg?v=1223600629

:rofl:

[broken_legs]

Monday Predictions:

Canadian Markets are closed Thanksgiving Day - October 13, 2008.

Good For Canadian Stocks to give investors some breathing room, but Tuesday might be ugly if people are cashing in their mutual funds.



US Markets are open.

Things affecting the market:
- G7/G8 Meetings and Announcements Specific Strategy may help, vague promises may hurt
- US Decides to take equity stake in Banks, more socialist capitalism
- Asian/European Market Action (will they close higher?)
- Bush/Paulson open their flappers again

Prediction:
Monday opens way lower, lower yet on Tuesday due to people redeeming Mutual Funds when they look at their 401k statements this weekend.

We still haven't had a record volume day and a massive 10% drop yet. Fridays action looked like it may have been what we were looking for but really the volume wasn't that* impressive.

So Big crash on Monday/Tuesday Wednesday Rebound.

Or rebound on Monday because everyone is calling for a crash... Seems like the obvious trade

[Z_Fan]

I agree that we have not seen the massive crash in any single day. I think when we see gi-normous epic volume coupled with a massive loss we're probably one day away from the bottom.

I think a lot of people just sit back and say "well, my financial guy told me to just ride it out" - the same old same old line that banks give. But eventually they see their new balance and 40% of their life savings that were supposed to be (haha) SAFE in stable mutual funds disappear - well, they're gonna bail on those mutual funds and then the market really tanks.

Here's hoping the DOW drops 1000+ points Monday, and then the TSX and DOW both drop 1500 on Tuesday. :devil:

[max_boost]

^^

I've seen my mutual fund portfolio take a dive too but selling is useless. Selling and doing what with the money? lol Riding it out and waiting for it to go back up and break even? If it's a good fund, like the RBC Canadian Dividend :D, you BUY:thumbsup:.

Every time the market tanks, I treat it as another buying opportunity!

[Rat Fink]

.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by max_boost
Selling and doing what with the money?

Money Market Fund, Bond Fund, or Savings Deposit.

Anything that will prevent further bloodspill.

Then, after the market has dropped a few thousand more points, buy back in and hope. This is still better than just holding. If the market continues to tank, well, you're not as bad off as you would have been.

If it goes up, well, it has to go up less because you have more units of the fund since you bought back in lower.

I wanna see big whammies and no money!

Then I'll buy back in...

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Z_Fan


Money Market Fund, Bond Fund, or Savings Deposit.



I'd stay away from Money Market funds right now... Lehmans fund broke the buck and started the credit crisis.

Seems kind of risky right now dont you think?

[Z_Fan]

Well, I don't think RBC's Money Market fund is gonna go bad.

IF you just want to HOLD your cash, Savings Deposit. Simple as that. It won't earn anything, but hey, last week alone you'd have made %16+ simply because you didn't lose anything. Hahah.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Well, I don't think RBC's Money Market fund is gonna go bad.

IF you just want to HOLD your cash, Savings Deposit. Simple as that. It won't earn anything, but hey, last week alone you'd have made %16+ simply because you didn't lose anything. Hahah.

I'd rather sit in a 3% of 2.25% high interest CDIC insured savings account than risk losing all of my money in a risky ass money market fund.

BUT


I suppose if you have faith that Canadian banks won't fail, you might actually make some good coin on a money market fund right now with the TED spread and LIBOR rate being as high as it is.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


I hope the TSX hammers down through 9000 and bounces off 5500/6000 in the next while. A good hard bloodbath that will shake all the skeletons out of the closet and clear the road for a solid recovery :clap:

6000 is crazy talk....

or is it?

no way.....it's crazy talk! lol

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by broken_legs


I'd rather sit in a 3% of 2.25% high interest CDIC insured savings account than risk losing all of my money in a risky ass money market fund.

BUT


I suppose if you have faith that Canadian banks won't fail, you might actually make some good coin on a money market fund right now with the TED spread and LIBOR rate being as high as it is.

Money market funds are usually guaranteed by CDIC up to $100,000 and what they invest inside the fund is usually BAs, bonds, and tbills.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY


Money market funds are usually guaranteed by CDIC up to $100,000 and what they invest inside the fund is usually BAs, bonds, and tbills.



Pretty sure MM Funds are not covered, but I could be wrong. It doesn't specifically say that MM funds are not covered....

But it does say that T-Bills and bonds are not covered, how could they cover a fund that invests in T-Bills?

http://www.cdic.ca/1/5/2/7/index1.shtml

The US only recently (last week?) changed their FDIC rules to include MM Funds....

[Z_Fan]

Well, if the Chief Economist for the IMF says it's going to drop at least another 20%, well, who are we to argue. Of course, I think Economists are all just absolutely full of shit ...

But that puts TSX easily into the mid 7000's. Which is crazy. :eek:

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by broken_legs




Pretty sure MM Funds are not covered, but I could be wrong. It doesn't specifically say that MM funds are not covered....

But it does say that T-Bills and bonds are not covered, how could they cover a fund that invests in T-Bills?

http://www.cdic.ca/1/5/2/7/index1.shtml

The US only recently (last week?) changed their FDIC rules to include MM Funds....

really depends. Its not directly covered through us.. it's through the issuing corp such as Manulife etc. I know Manulife MIP510 is covered for $100M

[broken_legs]

Well Asia and Australia are UP in a convincing way this morning.

Futures on the DOW were -250 points all weekend and are now + 300 points

weeeeeeee

:burnout:

edit:
Pardon me, 400 Points now....!


Originally posted by TYMSMNY


really depends. Its not directly covered through us.. it's through the issuing corp such as Manulife etc. I know Manulife MIP510 is covered for $100M

So when you said that they were covered by CDIC, you really meant they were covered by the issuing institution?

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by broken_legs




So when you said that they were covered by CDIC, you really meant they were covered by the issuing institution? [/B]

Well... indirectly. CDIC covers the manulife holdings and in turn, since we hold the fund, its covered.

[SilverRex]

nice, so monday was a good rally just the way I saw it last week lol.

too bad I dont have the guts to jump in in this crazy market. I was tempted on morgan stanely at 8 bucks, now they are trading near 15 dam.

Just remember, these rally wont be too sustainable. So take some profits as you can.

If our market was to mirror what happen in 1930, DOW could spark a huge rally back to 10-12k. Then everyone will sell to reset their portfolio and taking all their profits.

[broken_legs]

DUM DUM DUM

Oil is still up

Market broke the high from Friday

Looks good, but not fantastic


I have the feeling this sucker could turn on a dime.


I've got 55 SU Calls @ 1.85 avg and its going to be trading at 2.25 any time here. Should I sell?


Bush is about to speak right now. Sell on Bush is the old trade, maybe today its rally on bush.

hmmm


edit:

I sold on Bush @ 2.20

I'm driving back to Calgary from the rig today, can;t afford to have an open position while the markets are so volatile and I can't sit in front of a computer 24/7

[bashir26]

YAHOOOOO bought MS at $8.51 and now its at $15.20 and going up:thumbsup:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Z_Fan]

So I wonder what will happen on the TSX tomorrow.

I mean, it should go up about 1500 points easily. Right? Thoughts on this?

[max_boost]

hahaha who knows!

My dad is sure hoping so. Gambled on a couple large caps last week and after seeing the DJI +900pts today, he's excited for tomorrow.

I don't have the bankroll to play around so I'll just wait for the next -1000pt day before I buy more mutual funds :rofl:

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Here's hoping the DOW drops 1000+ points Monday, and then the TSX and DOW both drop 1500 on Tuesday. :devil:


Originally posted by Z_Fan
So I wonder what will happen on the TSX tomorrow.

I mean, it should go up about 1500 points easily. Right? Thoughts on this?

Make up your mind Shawn. :rofl:

[djayz]

I say large profit taking across the board. Early morning rally and then a flat day with maybe a rally near the end of the day depending on what news comes out throughout.

I've got a little bit of cash waiting for the next drop to use it all up. Just sitting and waiting now which sucks hah.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Inzane
Make up your mind. :rofl:

Oh, I want it to go down. Big time.

But I wonder how it will react simply because it's an interesting situation.

The rest of the world markets were open and rallied. But if tomorrow brings a shit day elsewhere in the world, how will the TSX go?

I figure it should basically open about 500+ points higher. And then go way up assuming markets elsewhere continue to rise.

But yeah, I want it to fall like a stone. My mind is made up on that.

[TYMSMNY]

It's looking like a REALLY strong opening. SU - $34, ECA - $55.80 tons of others that are opening +30%+

[TYMSMNY]

+1500points.

[LUCKYSTRIKE]

RIMM

Being sold at a serious discount right now, picked up a thousand shares this morning. Solid company, no debt, everyone loves their crackberry.

[SilverRex]

Double whammy
"I am afraid that will be a double-whammy for investors and yesterday’s rally in equities will prove a sucker’s rally as bond holders will sell at depressed prices and then have to cover their margin calls by selling equities again. This is a downward spiral.

With bonds no longer a safe haven then only gold and silver will be left - expect a rally in precious metals of unbelievable proportions, and the dollar will also surge on safe haven buying and the interest rate outlook."

Peter J. Cooper

[Altezza]

Can't seem to get any data on CNQ this morning? Anyone else?

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Altezza
Can't seem to get any data on CNQ this morning? Anyone else?

Hasn't traded yet. Many of them are halted due to volume. Right now it's at a B/A of 58.75

[e36bmw///]

nm

[4DoorGTZ]

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EGSPTSE

Yahoo finance cant handle a 4 digit gain,
For example as I type this... Open 9311.49 Current Value 10144.23 for an increase of 107.90, ha!

[bigbadboss101]

What are you buying today? The US market had a great day Monday and today it's pretty flat. What do you expect from the TSX?

[broken_legs]

:banghead:


So I sold all my SU calls yesterday when I left the rig for Calgary...

Turn on the trading box this morning and see they hit a high of 6.70 this morning!!! :banghead:


Anyone else go short this morning?

[djayz]

Wow, I'm seeing 15-20% gains across the board but when I look at my portfolio it barely made a dent. 2% up :rofl:

I'm still waiting on the sidelines, not going short or long on anything atm.

[liquid1010]

Does anyone on this board do an modeling? err wait, I guess I should restate that as "financial modeling". I've been working through a few spreadsheets to help me in my investing, and have one very simple model that calculates a companies FCF and other key ratios, and then works out a few valuations based on Net Income and FCF. Currently I'm working on an options model that models different options positions, calls, puts, bull spreads, etc. One sheet shows you the outcome if you excersize the option, the other if you sell the option (based on B&S).

Anyone into this type of thing? I'd love to learn more, and am going to pick up some more books on it.

[Supa Dexta]

Where'd that guy go who.... I think it was his brother was making some computerized trading program... He had high hopes.

[leec001]

TSX 9,811.38 +746.22 +8.23%
Dow 9,125.01 -262.60 -2.80%

[max_boost]

^^^

Curious to see how he's doing in this market haha

[broken_legs]

Bought 25 Nov 20 Puts on SU for 1.35

Sold @ 1.60 right before the bell.

[Pacman]

Originally posted by broken_legs
:banghead:


So I sold all my SU calls yesterday when I left the rig for Calgary...

Turn on the trading box this morning and see they hit a high of 6.70 this morning!!! :banghead:


Anyone else go short this morning?

I was in meetings all day and couldn't dump my SU calls. I'm still holding.......

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Pacman


I was in meetings all day and couldn't dump my SU calls. I'm still holding.......

Frustrating isn't it!

If only I just... If Only

Oh well, no one went broke booking a gain... even if it was only 20% of what it could have been if I just waited another day...

On another note, if anyone remembers i bought some january 15.00 puts on Capital One? They tripled in value from 0.6 to 1.80 and I basically forgot* to hit the sell button that day my active trader screwed up... I'm still up but holding for later.

Anyways, COF just bounced back huge, and I am into the November 20.00 puts now. They Report on THURSDAY and if they miss I think they'll get wiped out.

Lots of earnings coming out this week, should be interesting!


Interesting play from Cramer on Mad Money... UPL
Has the lowest cost production of Nat Gas of any producer in the US at 2.51/mmCF. Reserves increasing at 25%/yr, production increasing at 33%/year. CEO does not own any stock on Margin haha

[leec001]

Don't know how many points TSX/DOW are going to drop tomorrow :dunno:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

OK

Europe and asia down 3-$ across the board.

Bush is on the TV again opening his flapper!

Sell on Bush?


I gotta run to the gym and miss the open, heres hoping she tanks again :devil:

[Big Daddy G]

Interesting news this morning, EnCana is suspending plans to split the company into Oil and Gas until more favourable conditions exist in the financial global markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=apWdxR8mOP3A&refer=canada

[leec001]

Originally posted by Big Daddy G
Interesting news this morning, EnCana is suspending plans to split the company into Oil and Gas until more favourable conditions exist in the financial global markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=apWdxR8mOP3A&refer=canada

Will they delay or even cancel the BOW project in downtown Calgary?:rofl:

[leec001]

Originally posted by leec001
Don't know how many points TSX/DOW are going to drop tomorrow :dunno:

TSX 9,323.85 -631.81 -6.35%
Dow 8,577.91 -733.08 -7.87%

[broken_legs]

OK

Heres my thesis for the next couple of days:

1.) Oil comes back to 80ish if only for a day or so
2.) Suncor comes back to around 25
3.) Financials aren't going to do well and neither is COF especially after they release earnings


So I Booked $650 on COF calls this morning and kept 5 Nov 25 Puts for when she tanks, and I still have my Jan Puts @ 15.00. I'm trying really hard to take my money and run and hold one day max... Just in case.
.
Saw Suncor at 22.00 again, bought some more Nov 30 Calls for 1.15. Will buy some stock and more calls if it goes below 20.


EDIT:
On another unrelated note. Anyone see the exchange rate lately?? 1.18 CAD/USD

I'm up about 20% on my trading account from trading plus another 20% from teh exchange. This is awesome ! :bigpimp:

[SilverRex]

im still waiting patiently for gold to take off. why?

back in 1929 the crash went thru 3 phrase.

1st it was the crash of the equity market and failing of banks and money moving into bonds lifting a higher dollar. Then came the crash of the bond market which eventually had money flowing into the metals.

When could it be? today or it could be early 09 who knows but when it happens im ready :)

but for a safer bet. Oil at 75 bucks right now looks like a VERY good entry point if one is still hessitating.

70-75 is a very good support that dates back a few years. I mean even if oil do dip to 50 dollars, all it take is one cost average down which I Would do without hesitation, that is still 60 dollar oil your playing. And tell me folks, with winter around the corner, tension in the middle east, the freaking oil is and will continue to be the talk of the century.

Best case scenario, oil moves to 200, you would be smoking in the green. Worse case, oil would still be trading around this price in a few years. why? oil company cant make money at 50 bucks. Opec will only continue to cut production until the world see supply is less than demand again.

I would bet on oil. Even for short term play because it can very easily rocket back to near 100 dollars.

I myself am waitin for the magic number 60.00 for USO :D

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by SilverRex
im still waiting patiently for gold to take off. why?

back in 1929 the crash went thru 3 phrase.

1st it was the crash of the equity market and failing of banks and money moving into bonds lifting a higher dollar. Then came the crash of the bond market which eventually had money flowing into the metals.

When could it be? today or it could be early 09 who knows but when it happens im ready :)


Yea, I heard that on BNN as well from a couple of guys. Good stuff.

[rc2002]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Best case scenario, oil moves to 200, you would be smoking in the green. Worse case, oil would still be trading around this price in a few years. why? oil company cant make money at 50 bucks. Opec will only continue to cut production until the world see supply is less than demand again.


Just because oil companies can't make money at $50 doesn't mean that's the bottom for oil prices.

OPEC is useless in a bear market too. When nobody wants oil, it doesn't matter if they cut. Look at 1997 when there was $10/bbl oil. OPEC couldn't do a thing to raise the price.

But in a bull market, OPEC can just talk about production cuts and it sends the oil price skyrocketing.

[broken_legs]

BERNANKE SPEAKS @ 10:10 MST

Will we make a move up or down?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by richardchan2002


Just because oil companies can't make money at $50 doesn't mean that's the bottom for oil prices.

OPEC is useless in a bear market too. When nobody wants oil, it doesn't matter if they cut. Look at 1997 when there was $10/bbl oil. OPEC couldn't do a thing to raise the price.

But in a bull market, OPEC can just talk about production cuts and it sends the oil price skyrocketing.

nice are you hinting there is no bottom in oil and we could see 10 dollars oil once more lol. I dont rule out oil can dip to 50 but the world cant stop running, things will eventually go one way or the other and 10 or even 20 dollar oil is hardly unlikely especially once it spiked above 100.

Dont forget if you are an experience trader you will understand what goes up fast comes down fast but goes the same the other way. Oil has dropped pretty much like a brick, when things fall this fast, it can also surge just as quickly. Not saying we will see 100 within a day, but trust me at 75 and each dollar that it treads lower, the risk/reward to the upside is tremendous.

There is a billion reason why oil hasnt bottom and there is a billion reason why oil is, but I dont have all day to post everyrthing that smart folks here can simply find themselves on the internet.

The way I See it oil is due. period

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Big Daddy G
Interesting news this morning, EnCana is suspending plans to split the company into Oil and Gas until more favourable conditions exist in the financial global markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=apWdxR8mOP3A&refer=canada

That decision was a while ago. Unless there is a twist :dunno:

[Big Daddy G]

Originally posted by Canmorite


That decision was a while ago. Unless there is a twist :dunno:

It became official today, there were rumors for the last week.

[Supa Dexta]

Originally posted by SilverRex
The way I See it oil is due. period

Due for what? A spike??? You're crazy. It's been high all yr, after just setting record highs and ramping steady the last several years.. Now with all the uncertainty, and global slow down, it's no surprise its dropping, and will continue to do so. So now that it's dropped for a few weeks, "it's due"...:nut:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Supa Dexta


Due for what? A spike??? You're crazy. It's been high all yr, after just setting record highs and ramping steady the last several years.. Now with all the uncertainty, and global slow down, it's no surprise its dropping, and will continue to do so. So now that it's dropped for a few weeks, "it's due"...:nut:

Just like there was a 'fundamental' level of resistance where demand destruction occurred, there will be a level of support where demand will increase.

I personally believe that US Americans, and the Iraq, such as South Africa will probably start using more oil soon.

OPEC will cut. Iran is spiraling into debt because they figured oil will be at 100+ forever so they will be rooting for higher prices.

Maybe oil will do something crazy like a one week or one day move into the 60s or something but i dont think it will be long lived.

[bigbadboss101]

POT dropping still.