Official Short-term Investments Thread

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Broken_legs...Beyond's bloomberg terminal :rofl:

The bank of Scotland is in trouble, I'm not sure if Venezuela is. If the country is sound hopefully they will be able to get another loc.

Otherwise they could always sell their resources and allow foreign oil companies in to help :poosie:

I'm reporting live from CNBC on digital Cable actually ;)


I think Venezuela is screwed. So is IRAN. They have both been spending money and subsidizing everything like crazy. They are going to be pushing for a cut in production big time now at the OPEC meeting.

What do you think about the DOW wedging out?

[liquid1010]

Monday should be very interesting.....

I'm still long both ABX and SU....

[rc2002]

Originally posted by djayz


I'm contemplating the same thing...what if OPEC doesn't cut production that will send Oil way down won't it?


If OPEC cuts and oil price goes down anyway, it'll be even worse. It'll look like they have no control and that'll really send oil spiraling down.

[broken_legs]

Oil is up right now.

I've been reading some articles, lots of analysts believe that oil will trade range bound from 60-80 dollars now.

Others still believe that oil can fall through 50 dollars on a world wide recession.


All I really care about is whats going to happen on Monday/Tuesday. I'm hoping that oil and related equities (SU!) will rally on speculation of a big cut. I'm thinking it will be a sell on News issue, but by then I should be out with maybe a little left on the table just in case.

10 pM MST.

Oil = 73.12
Gold = 800.17
Australia is doing OK and Dow Futures are looking Decent

*******
edit:

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd, this is why oil will trade lower:

China reports 9% increase in GDP lower than all 12 estimates of 10.1%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGrGeSNmJxkM&refer=home


The fifth quarter of slowing growth may exacerbate declines this year in iron ore, copper and oil prices and undermine demand for exports within Asia, where economies are already contracting....

[Canmorite]

9% GDP is 'slow growth' in China ahaha.

[SilverRex]

http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

interestingly enough, gold against other currency are hitting records high expect against the EUR/USD that means eventually when it catches up, we will see new record gold prices.

and with ABX big cap, KGC/AUY mid cap at amazingly oversold values right now. I still have confidence we will see a much anticipated rally.

The fact that gold price is holding up well inspite of the strong US dollar only means when dollar starts to fall fast and hard, gold will then logically move higher.

i still believe in my theory that we have only see 7 year of this gold run, there should be at least one more year of happy ending. :D

also I read else where that even buffet is suggesting the bond market is about to crash and he believees now equities are safer than bond since stocks had crashed and bond hasnt, he asks the question which is the least of pain.

And this is inline of what was to come, the 3 phrase in this market crash, first it's stocks, then its bonds, then when money flows into precious mentals.

Fromnow until the elections I agree with most that 8000 is the temp floor, so keep your profits short, I suspect we may see a a significant rally up until elections, but in the end market will have a few retest or lows or even trend lower comes the new year. It will take a while before the market recovers, the big play is in metals, then oil then stocks for the short - medium term.

[Rat Fink]

Dumped my Suncor at open...I'll wait for the gap to backfill

[Rat Fink]

.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by SilverRex
http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

also I read else where that even buffet is suggesting the bond market is about to crash and he believees now equities are safer than bond since stocks had crashed and bond hasnt, he asks the question which is the least of pain.


Do you remember what his reasoning was for this?

Additionally - for those interested in the recent Gold price drops, and the difference between the physical and paper gold prices, look up gold carry trades.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by liquid1010


Do you remember what his reasoning was for this?

Additionally - for those interested in the recent Gold price drops, and the difference between the physical and paper gold prices, look up gold carry trades.

"By: Peter J. Cooper

The headline news on Friday was that the Sage of Omaha had started to buy common stocks for his own personal portfolio (not for Berkshire Hathaway, kindly note). His portfolio was previously 100 per cent in US government bonds.
Buffett has clearly spotted that the bull market for T-bonds is over and is moving his money from a bull market into what he hopes is the bottom of a bear market for equities. In any case if the bond market suddenly tanks under the weight of the bank bailouts, Buffett will still be onto a winner with a timely shift to an asset class that will fall by a lesser amount.

Let me put that in more folksy Buffett language. You sell T-bonds - which foolish investors think is the safest asset class in the world - and buy equities. Buffett makes a fair point in his explanation saying that share prices may not be on the floor yet, and that he has no idea when a bottom might come.

The switch is a question of relative value. Bonds are going to crash, equities have just crashed. So in which class do you put your money? The downside in equities is much smaller than bonds, so you go where you will lose least.

Cash not safe
What about cash? Buffett says you lose over the long term holding cash because it pays hardly any return above inflation. He says it looks the safest asset class now but that is an illusion.

True - as the governments of the world flood the globe with money (as T-bonds or just money) then inflation will soar. This is back to the Weimar Republic days of Germany in the 1920s when in order to pay down the debts of the First World War (read $5 billion? banking bailout), the government was forced to print money.

In the end it took a wheel barrow of cash to buy a loaf of bread. Then Hitler took over, repudiated the debts, created the Reich Mark and started public works and rearmament that climaxed in World War Two and an almost successful attempt to take over the world.

Hopefully the political consequences of the bank bailout will be less disastrous this time. But the economic impact is an inevitable consequence of the trillions being injected into the monetary system.

Inflation certain
Like Warren Buffett not knowing when the stock market bottom will come we know that it must come. Timing the impact of global bank bailouts on cash and inflation is impossible but we know it will happen.

Buffett’s response is to flee bonds, ignore cash (which does not carry the capital downside of a fixed interest instrument like a bond) and go straight to equities. He will, of course, be highly selective in his buying - and go for companies whose business models make them long term survivors.

It helps, of course, that millions of Buffett watchers will now rush and buy all the stocks that he already owns (a safe assumption is that he will top up these stock holdings first). To that extent when an oracle speaks its words are self-fulfilling.

Gold and silver stocks
However, if you choose to sell treasuries - and this is the wise decision, not buying stocks which is something of a smokescreen - then consider gold and silver shares.

If Warren is right about inflation - and both gold and silver have a fixed supply so they just have to go up in value with inflation - then the currently bombed out shares in precious metals just have to be the best buy in the entire stock market. I expect his own precious metal shareholdings will be kept quiet as he will want to buy as much as possible before anybody catches on.

In the Weimar Republic share prices actually surged with, and even above inflation, while those holding debt saw their investment destroyed by inflation. So joining Warren Buffett in his probably premature shift into shares (although he gives us no information on how much or which stocks he is buying, of course) is not such a bad idea - but do not do it with leverage or you might be wiped out by another down leg.

Some analysts see a recovery in stock prices from now until after the presidential election, with a nice post-election rally, and then another leg down in prices - perhaps to 6-7,000 on the Dow - with a real bottom next spring.

Of course, you could be caught in a bond crash before then, and you should be looking to protect yourself from the dropping of this particular shoe - the biggest capital market in the world. And what will that do to bank capital ratios? They will have to go back to the governments for another bailout, and how will that be funded? None of this is good news, unless you hold precious metals.

Peter J. Cooper"

[Supa Dexta]

Oil climbing, TSX climbing... Dollar still dropping.. wtf

[Z_Fan]

Regretting my last week lowball for 500 shares of Suncor at $21.50. :(

Had I bumped it up to $22 or $22.50 I'd have been on this ride.

[Inzane]

I'm out... of Suncor that is.

In at 22.50 last thursday, out at 29.25 this afternoon. (CDN) :thumbsup:

[djayz]

Wow some of you guys are making some good money with all these flips. What's everyone prediction for tomorrow, more up or more down?

[broken_legs]

Check out the volume on the DOW... Its SFA


TSX is beating it right now wtf?


Originally posted by djayz
Wow some of you guys are making some good money with all these flips. What's everyone prediction for tomorrow, more up or more down?

I'm betting this wekk will be good for energy stocks.

I think Tuesday/Wednesday once eveyrone sees there wasn;t a massive sell off the market might get a bit excited and make some moves up....

Or it will go down, or it will go sideways.


EDIT: NICE

DOW is moving into new highs in the last 30 minutes of the dya

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Inzane
I'm out... of Suncor that is.

In at 22.50 last thursday, out at 29.25 this afternoon. (CDN) :thumbsup:

Good job.

I think it's going to keep going up though. :rolleyes:

But it's never a bad thing to take money off the table!

[max_boost]

Originally posted by djayz
Wow some of you guys are making some good money with all these flips. What's everyone prediction for tomorrow, more up or more down?

Tomorrow----> DOWN! :D

300pts.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by max_boost


Tomorrow----> DOWN! :D

300pts.


Just because you said that its going higher. Much higher.

[Z_Fan]

I was worried about tomorrow to so decided not to hold overnight. Just sold my Talisman shares, well, most of them. Left 100 shares on the table.

Unfortunately it seems to be having a nice little run up here and there are 5 minutes left. So I'm probably gonna be down $.10 or $.15 from where I sold /share.

LOL, was at $13 and 3:59 and closed at $12.91 dropping that nine cents in just a matter of seconds. People like me dumping shares cuz they don't want to hold overnight I guess.

I think it will still be strong tomorrow.

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Good job.

I think it's going to keep going up though. :rolleyes:

But it's never a bad thing to take money off the table!

Thanks. I'll take what I can get.

We'd be fools to think it was possible to nail the timing bang on. I bought at 22.50 (to a low of 21.85) and sold at 29.25 (closed at 30.50). I'll call that lucky. I'd be fooling myself to think I could've planned it any better than that.


PS - I have no idea what the markets are going to do tomorrow, but I think for now I'm going to just sit on my metals positions and wait. (To quote Dave Mustaine & the early Metallica "Metal up your ass!!!!!"):D

[Z_Fan]

Yup. Especially with how crazy things have been.

I'm kind of hoping that tomorrow tanks. But I guess a lot of what is going to happen isn't gonna happen until OPEC releases its statement. My guess is they will cut production in attempts to keep oil prices from falling further. I dunno. Anyhow, the market is unpredictable. But I'm hoping for things to tank a good 800-1000 points in the next two days. Hahahah.

[Pacman]

I'm still holding my SU NOV Calls.......I'm greedy and will probably end up selling for a loss or letting them expire, but it could be a fun ride.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[ryanallan]

IMO up 17% today, and pretty much everything else is up on news of a possible 2nd bailout plan .

wo ho !

[Inzane]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
any chance that SU can fall back down?

Sure, let me just polish off my crystal ball and I'll get back to you. ;)

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Pacman
I'm still holding my SU NOV Calls.......I'm greedy and will probably end up selling for a loss or letting them expire, but it could be a fun ride.

I still have 100 Nov 30 Calls @ 0.95.

Nov 30 delta sucks. Everything below us was up 35-40% today but 30's didn't budge.

The stock price has gone up 20% since I bought most of my options and yet they are still the same price!

Lots of trader talk now that Oil has legs here to keep running to $80. I for one am a believer that it will run before the OPEC meeting on speculation. After that it will probably sell of on news, unless the news is BIG.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
you have 100 contracts? as in 10000 shares?
you play risky hey

thats a lot of money to let expire, if it came to that

I don't have any shares, only 100 options contracts.

Honestly, right now I don't think it's that risky. you can pretty much buy on either side put or call and wait and that contract will be worth more within a couple of days or a week due to the high volatility.

For instance Friday I was down 40% then up 30% in the same day.

I don't get what happened to these calls (yellow line) with Suncor today. Last few days the delta was 0.3-0.4. This morning it was huge then the last part of the day it barely moved at all. If it keeps running tomorrow (crosses fingers) Maybe Pacman and I can get out of these calls. I want to be short when OPEC has their meeting.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/Delta_changes.jpg

[Pacman]

Originally posted by broken_legs
[B]

Maybe Pacman and I can get out of these calls. I want to be short when OPEC has their meeting.


Bro...you are on your own. I'm riding this one all the way to Nov expiry. I'm either going for a 430 Scuderia or I'll just let them expire :)

[Canmorite]

BoC cuts 25 basis points. Leaving room on the table for more cuts, but saying inflation is still a risk.

[Z_Fan]

Damn, I missed the dip this morning ... saw it and thought uh oh gonna be a shit day and then it just shot right up. Crap! I could have got into TLM at 12.23 or so. Missed it.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by max_boost


Tomorrow----> DOWN! :D

300pts.

Damn rights......but still got a few more hours to go.

Z_Fan, you can get into Talisman for $12.23 no probs if you want to. ;)

[Inzane]

Damn, my AAPL is taking a shit kicking. I'm still UP thankfully overall, but not where I want to be.

:dunno:

Hey people... buy ipods, buy macbooks!! :D


Thoughts on RIM guys?

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by max_boost
Z_Fan, you can get into Talisman for $12.23 no probs if you want to. ;)

Yeah, well there was a good opportunity this morning because I could have bought it for .60 cents less than I sold it, and then sold it again for .50 cents or more per share in just 20 minutes. Assuming that I would have done that...which actually, I probably would have. :poosie:

And, I did buy back in just recently at the 12.0x it was sitting at. So I got all my shares back and I am ahead .80 or something on all of those...and now I hope it rallies up near the end of the day. If it shoots up to $12.45 or so, I'll dump my shares before close. Hahahah, just lock in the profit.

I was originally just taking some money to buy TLM or SU and was gonna hold until December because I think by that time, we're going to see HUGE share price increases between what they were at last Friday ... I think these stocks as well as others like ECA were really on sale last week.

[Z_Fan]

LOL so TLM went up to $12.40 or something and so I set a Stop Loss and I walk away for 10 minutes. Come back, it's at 11.99 or some shit. Good thing I set the stop loss. So I was out and since it dropped below $12 I will buy back in and hope for a little rally tomorrow AM.

[Inzane]

Originally posted by max_boost
Tomorrow----> DOWN! :D

300pts.

Good call sir.

Dow down 231
NYSE down 236
TSX down 455

D'oh!!

[max_boost]

It figures after it was up nearly 700pts the previous day that the market usually pulls back the day after.

As for tomorrow, who knows. :rofl:

[Z_Fan]

Rally in the morning, then TANK! This is what I hope. Hahah.

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Rally in the morning, then TANK! This is what I hope. Hahah.

Not what I hope. I want to see rally, rally, rally.... I'm down on tech and metals at the moment.

[Z_Fan]

Tomorrow is gonna be a slaughter. I think I will dump TLM at open because it's going to be bloody tomorrow.

Japan down nearly 7% and China down a few percent too. DOW at 135 points down ... before open ... I guess who knows but it looks like tomorrow is gonna be a bad day.

[IamTuffIRL]

Wow look at Apple.

After Hours: 103.61 +12.12 (13.25%)

Only because of the press release.

Dow should dip in the 7000s before this onslaught is finished.
Elections and about a month or so after should the economy recover a bit.

Jump into fannie mae now. Should be 5+ dollars by feb. (shh)


few others that im looking at but not completely sure.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Tomorrow is gonna be a slaughter. I think I will dump TLM at open because it's going to be bloody tomorrow.

Japan down nearly 7% and China down a few percent too. DOW at 135 points down ... before open ... I guess who knows but it looks like tomorrow is gonna be a bad day.

You're right. Asia Got Creamed. Europe is selling off right now too ~2%

I don't think tomorrow is going to be that bad in NA markets. Im not including the TSX here because im not following it lately.

The Vix (on monday) had its largest drop ever and is looking to open around 50. Check out a line chart on the Vix, it looks pretty toppy to me!

The dow and s&P wedging out with a max downside around ~8650 if the pattern continues.

10% of the S&P are trading at or below cash on hand and that 40% are trading at 8 or below P/E. Anyway you look at it, this is a cheap market.

the libor and hibor rates have finally started decreasing loosening up interbank lending.

Gasoline is now selling for under 3.00/gallon in the US. This is a massive tax cut on companies and consumers alike.

and finally i say, never in history has there been such a large effort by all the central banks of the world to act in unison. Are you really going to bet against all those banks?

So this is my case that the higher lows will continue until later this week or next we have a real rally with some volume.

Lots of earnings out today too, if there are some pleasant surprises things could change directions pretty quick.

Or maybe its going well off again right away.... But who knows. I still have a month to figure it out. :facepalm:

If the S&P holds onto the 900 level this week we'll be OK.


Also OIL is trading below 70 dollars. If it breaks 68.50ish it will be headed lower me thinks.

They are releasing inventory numbers in the US this morning too.

EDIT:

Theres a guy on CNBC from Elliot Wave International saying that dividend for teh dow is 3.5% right now and thats typical of historic BULL MARKET TOPS, and to get to a normal valuation in terms of dividends for the dow we'll have to go as low as 3500 on teh dow. wow

He also says that the S&P is way over valued trading at 18 times earning right now and that at Bear market bottoms the S&P should be trading at 10-12 times earnings.


EDIT:

Annnnnnnnnd In other news USD now costs 1.24 CAD. Even If I lose money I'm still making money now :bigpimp: Drop baby drop!

[natejj]

Grabbed 450 shares of AUY at 4.38. What a deal!

[Inzane]

Originally posted by natejj
Grabbed 450 shares of AUY at 4.38. What a deal!

My ABX is sitting at ~ -30% right now. :( I sure hope metals come back.

[broken_legs]

Pretty close on that low call, 8624

I think thats it. The pattern is still holding, I say we have set the low for the day and will close higher, but not in the green.

S&P is showing the exact same pattern and holding above 900 which is important.

If we can hold here I say rally Friday, Monday as people get more comfortable that the market isn't dropping like a rock any more.

Thoughts?

[SilverRex]

I think we will be fine, we should get a good rally during elections. And as for gold, its truely is a gift at current price. the paper gold and physical are having such great disconnect, one has to give and I believe we havent seen nothing yet when it rebounds. It could very well be after the elections or into the new year.

Yes the selloff makes me sick so I just turn off the PC, go around town and do my thing. I think months from now when the market is stable and the dollar starts to fall back down to earth, that is when new trend will reveal itself.

dam, abx/auy is so cheap, im tempted to buy more. :nut:

[BigMass]

Originally posted by SilverRex
I think we will be fine, we should get a good rally during elections. And as for gold, its truely is a gift at current price. the paper gold and physical are having such great disconnect, one has to give and I believe we havent seen nothing yet when it rebounds. It could very well be after the elections or into the new year.

Yes the selloff makes me sick so I just turn off the PC, go around town and do my thing. I think months from now when the market is stable and the dollar starts to fall back down to earth, that is when new trend will reveal itself.

dam, abx/auy is so cheap, im tempted to buy more. :nut:

funny thing about gold is that it's at the same price i paid when gold was at $880 / oz.

The only thing that is currently happening is the US dollar is in a huge rally. Everything else is remaining fairly constant.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by BigMass


funny thing about gold is that it's at the same price i paid when gold was at $880 / oz.

The only thing that is currently happening is the US dollar is in a huge rally. Everything else is remaining fairly constant.

Must be some sort of conspiracy.:rofl:

[BigMass]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Must be some sort of conspiracy.:rofl:

or maybe the dollar is just rallying due to the deleveraging of equities and moving into dollars? :rofl:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by BigMass


or maybe the dollar is just rallying due to the deleveraging of equities and moving into dollars? :rofl:

I'm still waiting for the part where you explain how Warren Buffet and Bernanke Decided to manipulate the markets to achieve their police state and prepare for the mothership.

You can't actually believe that something is happening for totally plausible and predictable market reasons can you?

The aliens have brainwashed BigMass... This is more serious than I thought.

[Inzane]

Originally posted by SilverRex
dam, abx/auy is so cheap, im tempted to buy more. :nut:

I just did (ABX). Let it ride. :nut:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Inzane]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
i wanna get su at 22
Comeon!

On the TSX or NYSE? I'd buy it again at $22 CDN. :D

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

OK breaking support, going to new lows

Time for some intestinal fortitude. :barf:

SPX breaks 900

EDIT:

WTF volume on the TSX is still higher than it is on the DOW.

Should we really believe this sell off?

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by broken_legs
OK breaking support, going to new lows

Time for some intestinal fortitude. :barf:

SPX breaks 900

Woops.

[ckangarloo]

I've gotten hammered on ABX this month, especially today. :banghead:

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by ckangarloo
I've gotten hammered on ABX this month, especially today. :banghead:

I didn't trust Gold in the short term and thus my ABX calls are primarily leaps. Manipulation can run rampant in the short term, but fundamentals drive macro level changes.....

[ckangarloo]

Originally posted by liquid1010


I didn't trust Gold in the short term and thus my ABX calls are primarily leaps. Manipulation can run rampant in the short term, but fundamentals drive macro level changes.....

I agree. Long term...

[broken_legs]

SO S&P 500 holds the 900 level and closes at 900.20

Nice.


Dow rallies back +200 from -680 to 8547.

I'm going to stick with tomorrow going higher...

[Inzane]

Oh man, I don't know if I can handle this. I'm about ready to JUMP.......





































off a footstool.

http://www.specializedsports.ca/images/foot%20stool.jpg

Who's with me? :nut:

[IamTuffIRL]

When you guys are buying options are you guys trading naked call / puts?

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Inzane
Oh man, I don't know if I can handle this. I'm about ready to JUMP.......off a footstool.

http://www.specializedsports.ca/images/foot%20stool.jpg

Who's with me? :nut:

I've been thinking about it. But if I have to go home or go BIG, I'm going BIG. So I'll see you at the top step!!!

http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i141/photodump_2006/Junk/15260031.jpg

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by IamTuffIRL
When you guys are buying options are you guys trading naked call / puts?


If we drop big again I'll be buying shares and selling Calls. When teh volatility is so high like this the premiums on options make it a good deal.

ie Suncor trading at 18.00

So I buy 100 shares for $1800

I sell $20 Calls that will be trading around $4.00 ($400 in my pocket)

So that reduces my cost for buying shares to 1400, and cost per share down to 14.00 protecting me from further downside.

If the price goes up I cover the calls with the shares I bought, keep the $400 for the calls and make an aditional $200 when someone buys the shares from me for $20.



Also thinking of selling some way out of the money puts on the next VIX spike. Ie sell some 7.50 calls all naked.

So if the price drops that low, i'll just own a whole lto fo suncor at 7.50/share which is a damn good deal, if not I just keep the premium and go on my merry way.

[Inzane]

Originally posted by broken_legs
I sell $20 Calls that will be trading around $4.00 ($400 in my pocket)

So that reduces my cost for buying shares to 1400, and cost per share down to 14.00 protecting me from further downside.

If the price goes up I cover the calls with the shares I bought, keep the $400 for the calls and make an aditional $200 when someone buys the shares from me for $20.


Just curious, not ever having done options trading before, what are your transaction fees like on a purchase that size (ie. $400 in calls)?

[SilverRex]

ok finally Gold has a bit of a lift today. I hope it pulls a sept when it last bottom at 736 and shot up to 900 soon after.

I know this gold bull in reference to future inflation we will have our moments, but Gold and gold stocks are way oversold.

Gold should temporary put in a bottom and hopefully push for a good sizable gain in coming days. So I can move some of my funds to CAD as it is now around 1.27 which is nuts.


USO at 54 dollar is so dam cheap. if I had all the cash in the world I would buying every dip right now.

[slick2404]

Speaking of gold...

what do you think of GOZ and MTO.V...I've been looking at them for a while...thinking of picking up and holding.

[Supa Dexta]

Gold's now at 715 and dropping.

One other thing I'm curious about is gasoline. On the ticker it shows 1.58.. What does that number mean? Is that cost to get gas (a gallon?) refined to market? or what does that represent...

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by broken_legs



If we drop big again I'll be buying shares and selling Calls. When teh volatility is so high like this the premiums on options make it a good deal.

ie Suncor trading at 18.00

So I buy 100 shares for $1800

I sell $20 Calls that will be trading around $4.00 ($400 in my pocket)

So that reduces my cost for buying shares to 1400, and cost per share down to 14.00 protecting me from further downside.

If the price goes up I cover the calls with the shares I bought, keep the $400 for the calls and make an aditional $200 when someone buys the shares from me for $20.


Strong strategy.... I like it - this is why options are such a powerful tool. In order to gain some larger potential upside though I would sell calls a little higher than $20... maybe at $22 or $24. I guess it all depends on your expectations.

[Inzane]

Goddammit... ABX is at $24 (CDN) now. :nut:

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Supa Dexta


One other thing I'm curious about is gasoline. On the ticker it shows 1.58.. What does that number mean? Is that cost to get gas (a gallon?) refined to market? or what does that represent...

I believe that is the price of a refined gallon, wholesale price.

http://www.nymex.com/RB_spec.aspx

[liquid1010]

Is anyone else looking at Potash plays right now? The global economy may be slowing down, but food expectations will not be....

[IamTuffIRL]

Dont bother with potash, if you dig deep enough. You will figure out it was almost a giant scam.

POT was over 160 a month ago.
Now its 67 and it will continue to drop till 20-30s I believe.
POT was wayyyyy overpriced at even 100.

I will explain it a bit of the so called scam.

Potash prices in the past was rising dramatically because the Potash corp of sask was trying to form a monopoly in order to greatly increase the price of potash. They did it semi-successfull driving a ton of potash from 200s to 900.
The fuel behind it was China`s demand for it, but as a result with all monopolies, it started to fall apart and they cannot control all factors as China`s demand decreased.

(one of my family members has a Ph.D in economics, and did a thorough study on potash)
IPI, KCL, Pot, moscaic and many others have crashed as a result. Potash is not a good place to invest but a good place to buy Puts :)

[djayz]

What about Agrium? same story?

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by IamTuffIRL
Dont bother with potash, if you dig deep enough. You will figure out it was almost a giant scam.

POT was over 160 a month ago.
Now its 67 and it will continue to drop till 20-30s I believe.
POT was wayyyyy overpriced at even 100.

I will explain it a bit of the so called scam.

Potash prices in the past was rising dramatically because the Potash corp of sask was trying to form a monopoly in order to greatly increase the price of potash. They did it semi-successfull driving a ton of potash from 200s to 900.
The fuel behind it was China`s demand for it, but as a result with all monopolies, it started to fall apart and they cannot control all factors as China`s demand decreased.

(one of my family members has a Ph.D in economics, and did a thorough study on potash)
IPI, KCL, Pot, moscaic and many others have crashed as a result. Potash is not a good place to invest but a good place to buy Puts :)

Interesting... I wasn't aware of that at all. With that said, China's demand for Potash won't decrease much considering demand is primarily a function of diet and population.

[Inzane]

No late day rallies today from the looks of it. Sniff.. :(

[Z_Fan]

Oh I dunno about that.

Maybe not in Metal but all the Energy and Bank stocks shot up in the last hour. TLM went from 10.25 to 10.98 in like 30 minutes and Suncor was a couple bucks down and shot up $1.60+ in the last hour or so.

TSX went up 350+ points in the last couple hours of the day. I'd call that a rally. It was in the shitter before that.

Makes for a hopeful tomorrow anyhow.

[Canmorite]

Quite a rally at the end. Still going too!

[IamTuffIRL]

I believe the SEC revoked the restriction (until jan 16 i believe) that stocks below a dollar would be removed from the NYSE in a givin amount of time.

Thus being said, I said before that Fannie Mae is a amazing buy.

I predict easily 5+ dollar around feb. Currently 71 cents.

Think about it besides the obvious - its a conservatorship and must achieve $1 by jan 16 or get removed from NYSE. Additionally, if Obama wins -which more than likely he will - fannie mae will increase in price. Theres a very big link between obama campaign and fannie mae.

[Inzane]

Guess I spoke too soon.

[dj_honda]

cuz of the opec meeting tommorrow? i wonder what will happen next week...

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I've been thinking about it. But if I have to go home or go BIG, I'm going BIG. So I'll see you at the top step!!!

http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i141/photodump_2006/Junk/15260031.jpg

I see your bigger stool...

and raise ya!

http://www.sjf.com/misc/misc024.jpg

[Z_Fan]

Whoa! Don't go crazy on me! Calm down, it's all going to be OK!

Don't jump! Think about the wife! The family!

:poosie:

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Inzane


I see your bigger stool...

and raise ya!

http://www.sjf.com/misc/misc024.jpg

wow.. you could actually hurt yourself on this one. :rofl:

[Z_Fan]

I think after tomorrow we're gonna need an even bigger ladder.

Prepare for massive losses tomorrow.

I'm gonna do the same as the last day, dump it in the morning ideally after a quick rally and then watch the shit tumble into the abyss.

Cheers! To big losses tomorrow. :eek:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I think after tomorrow we're gonna need an even bigger ladder.

Prepare for massive losses tomorrow.

I'm gonna do the same as the last day, dump it in the morning ideally after a quick rally and then watch the shit tumble into the abyss.

Cheers! To big losses tomorrow. :eek:


Futures are trading (-)460 points right now.

But because you said you're going to sell into the open and watch it drop it will do the opposite.

The market will open lower and then rally, at the same time OPEC will announce a production cut and oil will buck the downtrend by rallying up over 70 dollars and breaching the upper downward trendline setting a new trading range for oil and causing some short covering.

Energy stocks and financials will lead the rally, bolstered by strong performance from AAPL and some other choice tech names.

There will be massive short covering and we will close up 700 points on the dow after reaching intraday highs of +1100 points.

...

Or its going to crash and test/plough through the lows from before. Good thing I have one of these:
http://www.thelittleladderstore.com/images/graphics/skyscraperbase5.jpg


EDIT:
Gold just smashed through its previous recent low and is now trading at 693....

Oil just sold off through support and hit a low of 64.50

DOW futures are (-)500!!!

Asia sold off 2-11%

Europe is down 4-5% so far this morning....

Yikes! :eek:

[Supa Dexta]

K, no more pics in this thread! This pos router is gonna start smokin' on this shitty rignet. :rofl:

So oil cut, and price still dropping.. I called that.

[SilverRex]

as much as gold has dropped, you can tell the 700 dollar price there is alot of buying going on holding it up.

I think the (short term) bottom of the gold price is near, and what is more fun to watch is the next 4-8 weeks. The election, the interest rate cut as well as the war between paper/physical gold. I would so like to see the paper gold comex completely collaspe sending gold up twice as much within days. that would be the dream.

US dollar just cant keep going up, because once it reaches a certain level, many reserve around the world I bet will start taking advantage of this and start unwinding their position. It's the patient to wait for this massive money to pour into gold and when that happens, you will forget all these recently weakness in the gold market and shares alike.

I'm calling gold at 1400

either way, the market is so oversold even gold that a good significant rally should take place. Then get too excited when things look normal again because it is not. As I have said plentiful, all rallys are sucker's rally. There may be a big one coming too so use that to your advantage.

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Supa Dexta
K, no more pics in this thread! This pos router is gonna start smokin' on this shitty rignet. :rofl:

So oil cut, and price still dropping.. I called that.

lol. considering the cut in production doesn't really show up in inventory numbers for about a month.....

Look out for earning in the next quarter.... it's going to hurt.

[TYMSMNY]

Opening on the TSX, down 633 points and continuing to drop.

DOW futures was stuck at -550. LOL.

[broken_legs]

DOW and SPX were at Limit Down since 3am...

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by broken_legs
DOW and SPX were at Limit Down since 3am...

fortunately I was still sleeping then. I only heard about it at about 5. I wonder how far it would've gone without the limit.

Bailey's and coffee anyone?

[Z_Fan]

:nut:

Other than I lost 10% of my stock value this morning at open. :rolleyes:

I'll live.

[broken_legs]

The bottom is in.


Heard it here first.

[TYMSMNY]

Technical Lows

S&P 770
current 856

DJI 7200
current 8340

Broken... people's portfolios are depending on it!

[KLCC]

Sunday night will be something to watch for. Pending on how bad asia market sell off is, it will likely influence the trend on the NA market monday.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Canmorite]

Wow what a fucking close!

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, I'm pissed about that closing. I knew it was going to happen though. Pretty much a repeat of yesterday's close. Up hundreds of points in the last hour to save the day.

I held my stocks, and they closed slightly higher than yesterday after a huge loss at opening...