Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Canmorite]

Heh, interesting chart.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v65/nokomisjeff/100_year_dow_bull_bear_periods.jpg

Doubt it's adjusted for inflation but still interesting to see the upwards drift.

[broken_legs]

Yeah, interesting chart.

Would be more interesting if I knew that it was a 100_year_dow_bull_bear_periods_chart

;)

Also Its lacking the last couple of years that would throw that pattern out some. Where its red and supposedly flat we were still in a bull market and the dow rose a few thousand points no?


Originally posted by Canmorite
Heh, interesting chart.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v65/nokomisjeff/100_year_dow_bull_bear_periods.jpg

Doubt it's adjusted for inflation but still interesting to see the upwards drift.

[Canmorite]

Never broke 14000 on the dow, and now we're sitting at 8300 ish. Still now below the 2002-03 levels.

[rc2002]

Asian markets are down. Going to be a down day tomorrow too.

[broken_legs]

I think the (US) market will be up tomorrow and UP for the week.

The nice little wedge that was forming on the Dow and S&P has been violated, but I am not yet convinced.

Part of this is because I still have a long position i need to get out of. So here I go trying to justify why I should not book a loss. The other part is because the volume is still retreating every day.

We haven't seen a big volume day for a while now.

ALL of the bigger* volume days in the last couple of weeks were days when we rallied a few hundred points off the intraday lows.

If we close below 8000, or test the previous lows, I'll join the Bear Case, but I am not yet convinced.

My rule of thumb will be, If the volume on the TSX is greater than that of the DOW it's not a real move.

With that said, yeah Asia looks like crap, but after Friday can you really use Asia as an indicator of whats going to happen other than at the open?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

- 40 on SPX
- 400 on DOW

I bet we limit down again


OIL is at 62 bux.

CAD/USD is at 1.29!


:barf:


Can you say............

Rate Cut?

[SilverRex]

come on rate cut 75 points.

Gold finally closed a huge hammer candle stick on the daily, to me that is bullish here comes a good gold rally for the next few days

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1225087620.php

go gold go

[broken_legs]

Oil is rallying right now.

The markets were down hundreds of points in pre market but are looking MUCH better now.

rally today?? :dunno:

[ExtraSlow]

Give me another week of bad news, I found some more cash to invest.

[dezmarez]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Give me another week of bad news, I found some more cash to invest.


haha word....

i have 30 years of investing ahead of me

[max_boost]

Oh.....SNAP!

:rofl:

Waiting for 7500pts now :D

[rc2002]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oh.....SNAP!


That's the sound of my trading account breaking!

I'm looking for an entry point too. I need to do a hell of a lot of averaging down.

[Z_Fan]

Brutal end. Tanked big time in the last hour.

[Inzane]

Frack... where's my warehouse ladder? :nut:




PS - Can somebody explain WTF is going on with gold? Gold itself finished UP today, above 740. And yet gold stocks appear to be way DOWN. :dunno:

[dezmarez]

ya i have to keep buying to make sure my NAV isn't something ridiculous, i had NAV of 45 when it was trading at 17.82!!! man oh man

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Inzane
Frack... where's my warehouse ladder? :nut:

PS - Can somebody explain WTF is going on with gold? Gold itself finished UP today, above 740. And yet gold stocks appear to be way DOWN. :dunno:

Gold company prices are a function of more than just Gold prices - the entire TSX was killed today.

I honestly did not think that the TSX would sustain a drop below the 9000point mark, but I stand corrected. We've driven below that a few times now, and that no longer seems to be any sort of barrier.

I should have gone short on SU not long......

[Canmorite]

Well those last 8 mins were pretty crazy. ~-400 points on the TSX.

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Inzane


PS - Can somebody explain WTF is going on with gold? Gold itself finished UP today, above 740. And yet gold stocks appear to be way DOWN. :dunno:

Gold prices don't necessarily correspond to gold producer's stock price. The pressure now lies not only on gold prices but with the companies balance sheets + credit PLUS the pressure on the entire market.

If you were to play gold... I'd only go with the bullion and not the actual producers. At least until this mess is all cleared up.

[rc2002]

A lot of Gold companies are releasing Q3 results this week too. People may be positioning themselves for the news.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by richardchan2002
A lot of Gold companies are releasing Q3 results this week too. People may be positioning themselves for the news.


Results will be good. Valuations will be dirt cheap on these companies, but the problem is that the stock market looks ahead, not behind.

Yeah earnings are going to be awesome, but gold is going down.

I see the gold story the same as the oil story right now. Oil service and E&P companies have been slaughtered regardless of their sky high earnings from the high price of oil. The market is discounting the future earnings.


EDIT:

Pete Najarian on fast Money today said that Suncor is a HUGE take over candidate. He went on further to say that Suncor needs higher oil prices ie 70-80+ to be truly profitable and expand the business, and that they were basically lying and reassuring the markets saying they are profitable at these levels....

Well heres to hoping someone comes in and bids 40 dollars... Exxon? Shell?

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Results will be good. Valuations will be dirt cheap on these companies, but the problem is that the stock market looks ahead, not behind.

Yeah earnings are going to be awesome, but gold is going down.

I see the gold story the same as the oil story right now. Oil service and E&P companies have been slaughtered regardless of their sky high earnings from the high price of oil. The market is discounting the future earnings.

Very True. The strange thing about Gold right now is that its role in the economy seems to be changing. It has always been viewed as the safeguard, but there is a lot of thought that this is changing.

Gold Markets are being really manipulated right now through carry trades, and other paper transactions, and I think no-one truly knows what is going to happen. There is a ton of thought that Gold will hit $2k, while others think that it's true value lies in the $750-$900 range for the forseeable future. Experts are on both sides of the fence.......

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by liquid1010


Very True. The strange thing about Gold right now is that its role in the economy seems to be changing. It has always been viewed as the safeguard, but there is a lot of thought that this is changing.

Gold Markets are being really manipulated right now through carry trades, and other paper transactions, and I think no-one truly knows what is going to happen. There is a ton of thought that Gold will hit $2k, while others think that it's true value lies in the $750-$900 range for the forseeable future. Experts are on both sides of the fence.......


If you look at a 10 year chart on Gold its parabolic. I think everyone here knows how parabolic charts end up.....


I don't really think that the gold price is being "manipulated". I think its a more a situation of central banks selling to raise liquidity, funds and investors liquidating for liquidity, and the strength in the USD.

To me those are all totally plausible reasons for the action in the gold market.


Gold was the hedge against inflation and a safe place to be while a lot of people saw the tumble int he stock market coming. Well the tumble is happening, so if you're not taking your hedge off the table now then why did you hedge against it in the first place, ya know what i mean vern?

[broken_legs]

Your Market Preview for Tuesday Oct 28, 2008
by broken_legs


Monday was a bloodbath where Asian and European Indices sold off up to 10%. The US markets closed at their lowest levels in 5 years in a late day sell off, but did not breach the intraday lows that were set on Oct 10. Notably, US markets did not participate in the major sell off and for the third day in a row showed suprising strength in the face of a global selloff. Also notable, volumes are still relatively low, which makes the Oct 10 volume seem like a capitulataroy sell off.

Overnight Asian Markets have come back strong with the HSI up over 10% and European markets poised to open strong.

US futures are pointing towards a strong opening, which has this investor wondering if we are going to see a bear market rally this morning.


Things to look forward to this week:
- K Schiller housing prices out.. Tuesday
- Consumer Confidence Data... Tuesday
- 2 Day Fed Meeting and a 0.5 or 0.25 rate cut, a failure to cut 0.5 may cause a sell off. Wednesday @ 2:15
- Jobless claims data
- US GDP Number
- New home sales (out on Monday better than expected)
- This week is the first week that the money from the TARP will actually go to banks. We could see a big drop in the LIBOR this week.

Also pay attention to OIL. It was trading as high as $66/B in overnight trading. IF we get a bounce in the US markets you may see oil make a run at 70 dollars again. IF this is the case we could see a strong rebound in the badly beaten down energy stocks.

Technical Corner:

Only 5 times in the last 100 years has the stock market traded 25% below the 50 Day MA. Thats where we are right now. In each case within 4-6 weeks the market was trading 10-18% higher. If you believe that Monday was the re-test of the lows, today looks like the start of a mini bull trend.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/su_Oct27.jpg

Either Suncor is going way lower, or more likely we see oil bounce accompanied by a rally in the US indices and it breaks to the upside. Or it keeps going down.... Down... Down...


http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/DOW_OCT28.jpg

Thoughts on what will happen to the DOW SPX etc... Will be confirmed on say 420,000,000 + volume out the top of the trend line. Same to the downside of course. This might be a bit of a stretch, but i have seen uglier wedges work.



broken_legs trade for Tuesday: Buy Suncor. Buy Capital One (they just got 3.5 BIL from the Fed)

(yes su is the only stock i follow!)

I think im going to start a shady subscription service. 65/month for stock tips and industry research. What do you guys think? Anyone want to go in on this with me? We just need to borrow someones name and picture so it seems somewhat credible... hahah

We'll use the subscription revenue to invest in stocks before we recommend them, then sell into buying that our shady news letter creates.


Other Stuff:


Tuesday, Oct. 28

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. releases third-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of $1.12, down from $1.23 the previous year.

Rogers Communications Inc. is expected to post share profit of 53 cents in the third quarter, up from 42 cents last year.

TransCanada Corp. releases third-quarter results. Share profit of 54 cents is expected, down from 57 cents last year.

Canfor Pulp Income Fund reports. Third-quarter share profit of 25 cents is expected, down from 46 cents last year.

Inmet Mining Corp. is expected to post share profit of $1.99 in the third quarter, down from $2.37 last year.

Bell Aliant Regional Communications Income Fund reports. Third-quarter profit of 64 cents a unit is forecast, up from 48 cents the previous year.

Sierra Wireless Inc. reports on the third quarter. Analysts expect share profit of 27 cents (U.S.) in the third quarter, down from 33 cents last year.

QLT Inc. posts third-quarter results.

BP PLC reports on the third quarter. Analysts expect share profit of 37 cents (U.S.), up from 22 cents last year.

Honda Motor Co. Ltd. releases second-quarter results. Share profit of ¥71 (95 cents) is forecast, down from ¥115 last year.

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia releases third-quarter results and is expected to break even, compared with an 8-cent (U.S.) loss last year.

Panasonic Corp. is expected to announce second-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of ¥29 (39 cents), down from ¥31 last year.

United States Steel Corp. reports on the third quarter. Analysts expect share profit of $7.05 (U.S.) in the third quarter, up from $2.50 last year.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and International Monetary Fund first deputy managing director John Lipsky are among speakers at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) annual meeting in New York.

Wednesday, Oct. 29

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board announces its decision on short-term interest rates. Economists expect the rate to drop to 1 per cent from 1.5 per cent.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. releases third-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of 8 cents (U.S.), down from 27 cents last year.

Astral Media Inc. is expected to post share profit of 71 cents in the fourth quarter, up from 63 cents last year.

Maple Leaf Foods reports. Third-quarter share profit of 1 cent is forecast, down from 6 cents last year.

Suncor Energy releases third-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of $1.12, up from 64 cents last year.

Brookfield Properties Corp. releases third-quarter results.

Canadian Oil Sands Trust releases third-quarter results.

MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates Ltd. posts third-quarter results.

Nexen reports on the third quarter. Analysts expect share profit of $1.40, up from 65 cents last year.

Opti Canada Inc. releases third-quarter results. A loss of 3 cents is expected, compared with a 7-cent loss last year.

Kellogg Co. reports. Third-quarter share profit of 80 cents (U.S.) is forecast, up from 76 cents last year.

Kraft Foods is expected to post share profit of 43 cents (U.S.) in the third quarter, down from 44 cents last year.

Procter & Gamble Co. releases first-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of 98 cents (U.S.), up from 92 cents last year.

Sony Corp. reports. Analysts expect share profit in the second quarter of ¥25 (34 cents), down from ¥73 last year.

Toshiba Corp. releases second-quarter results. A loss of ¥5 (7 cents) a share is expected, down from a profit of ¥8 last year.

Visa Inc. is expected to report share profit of 55 cents (U.S.) in the fourth quarter.

The U.S. Commerce Department reports on durable goods orders for September. Economists expect a 1-per-cent drop.

Thursday, Oct. 30

Barrick Gold releases third-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of 47 cents (U.S.), up from 39 cents last year.

Breakwater Resources Ltd. is expected to lose 2 cents a share in the third-quarter, compared with a 2-cent profit last year.

Great-West Lifeco Inc. reports. Third-quarter share profit of 56 cents is forecast, down from 62 cents last year.

Canfor Corp. reports. Analysts expected a loss of 17 cents a share in the third quarter, compared with a 33-cent loss the previous year.

Cogeco Inc. and Cogeco Cable Inc. post third-quarter results. Both are expected to post share profit of 61 cents.

Torstar Corp. reports. Analysts expect share profit of 15 cents in the third quarter, up from 11 cents.

Fraser Papers Inc. reports. A loss of 25 cents (U.S.) a share is expected in the third quarter, compared to a 59-cent loss last year.

Transalta Corp. releases third-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of 34 cents, up from 33 cents the previous year.

Alcatel-Lucent posts third-quarter results. Share profit of 5 euro cents (8 cents) is forecast, up from 2 euro cents last year.

CBS Corp. is expected to post share profit of 40 cents (U.S.) in the third quarter, down from 48 cents.

Exxon Mobil Corp. reports. Analysts expect third-quarter share profit of $2.40 (U.S.), up from $1.70 the previous year.

Imperial Oil Ltd. is expected to report. Third-quarter share profit of $1.22 is forecast, up from 84 cents last year.

Marathon Oil Corp. reports. Third-quarter share profit of $2.33 (U.S.) is forecast, up from $1.48 last year.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC releases third-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of $1.21 (U.S.), up from $1.10 the previous year.

Lear Corp. is expected to post a third-quarter loss of 1 cent (U.S.) a share, down from a 94-cent profit last year.

Mazda Motor Corp. releases second-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of ¥11(15 cents), down from ¥19 last year.

Motorola Inc. reports. Third-quarter share profit of 2 cents (U.S.) is forecast, down from 6 cents last year.

Volkswagen AG releases third-quarter results. Share profit of €2.23 ($3.59) is forecast, down from €2.39 the previous year.

The U.S. Commerce Department releases final figures on the gross domestic product for the third quarter. Economists expect a drop an annualized drop of 0.5 per cent.

The U.S. Department of Labour reports on initial jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 25. Economists forecast 473,000 claims.

Statistics Canada reports on the industrial product and raw materials price indexes for September. Economists expect industrial product prices to decline 0.5 per cent from the previous month and the raw materials prices to drop 4.3 per cent.

The Vancouver Housing Outlook Conference, sponsored by Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp., gets under way.

A three-day World Economic Forum on Europe and Central Asia begins in Istanbul.

Friday, Oct. 31

SNC-Lavalin Group releases third-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of 51 cents, up from 41 cents last year.

Eldorado Gold Corp. reports. Third-quarter share profit of 7 cents is expected, up from 2 cents last year.

Fortis Inc. reports on the third quarter. Analysts expected share profit of 21 cents, up from 20 cents last year.

Burger King releases first-quarter results. Share profit of 39 cents (U.S.) is expected, up from 35 cents last year.

Chevron reports on the third quarter. Analysts expect share profit of $3.25 (U.S.) in the third quarter, up from $1.97 the previous year.

Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. reports. Second-quarter share profit of ¥17 (23 cents) is expected, down from ¥29 last year.

NYSE Euronext reports on the third quarter. Analysts expect share profit of 73 cents (U.S.), down from 76 cents last year.

Sanofi-Aventis releases third-quarter results. Analysts expect share profit of €1.37 ($2.19), the same as last year.

Weyerhaeuser Co. is expected to post a loss of 6 cents (U.S.) a share in the third-quarter, down from a 55-cent profit last year.

Yamaha Corp. reports. Share profit of ¥31 (42 cents) is expected in the second quarter, down from ¥37 the previous year.

Statistics Canada reports on gross domestic product by industry in August. Economists forecast a drop of 0.3 per cent from the previous month.

The U.S. Department of Commerce reports on personal income and spending for September. Economists forecast income will rise 0.1 per cent, while personal spending is expected to fall 0.2 per cent.

The Bank of Japan holds a one-day monetary policy meeting in Tokyo.

All earnings forecasts are mean estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

[TYMSMNY]

Should've bought Suncor yesterday. Looks like it'll open 8%+ higher.

Lets go Beyond, early morning rally!

[broken_legs]

WOW


Consumer Confidence is 38 vs 61 in September!

This is a RECORD LOW. yikes

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY
Lets go Beyond, early morning rally!

There are some large hedge funds that are overextended and need to cash out before the end of the year. They will sell into any rally, which will ensure no upward trend holds for a while.

Anyone who is playing the swings is going to have a lot to work with for the next month or so. Bargain hunters will have several chances at the bottom of each bounce.

[bigbadboss101]

The early gains subsided. Should have dumped some POT when it was up $5 earlier today. Now it's in the negative. Actually POT fluctuates quite a bit interday.

[TYMSMNY]

^ for sure. Early morning rally was what we got. Picked up some HXD @ 33.80 about 30min. after the bell. Markets are too volatile to hold anything long term.

People that picked up positions yesterday have most likely sold this morning.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by TYMSMNY
Markets are too volatile to hold anything long term.

Disagree. With many equities trading around 50% of thier 52 week high, or lower, I think a value investor with anything longer than a 1 year timeframe can make a pretty compelling case for the buy-and-hold approach.
P/E ratios are very attractive at these low valuations.

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow

Disagree. With many equities trading around 50% of thier 52 week high, or lower, I think a value investor with anything longer than a 1 year timeframe can make a pretty compelling case for the buy-and-hold approach.
P/E ratios are very attractive at these low valuations.

sorry. You're absolutely right. With a time rame of 2yrs +, the fundamentals of certain companies look great. Low P/E and price to book value. I should have said that in these markets, short term trading is a good way of playing the volatility. If you're trying to time the markets... and catch the bottom... keep waiting. Watch out for next quarter earnings as most O&G companies have already hedged out their goods.

[ExtraSlow]

I'm holding on to a couple dollars hoping to pounce on the next decent low. I don't have time to watch the market every day, so I'm staying out of the short term game.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by broken_legs



If you look at a 10 year chart on Gold its parabolic. I think everyone here knows how parabolic charts end up.....


I don't really think that the gold price is being "manipulated". I think its a more a situation of central banks selling to raise liquidity, funds and investors liquidating for liquidity, and the strength in the USD.

To me those are all totally plausible reasons for the action in the gold market.


Gold was the hedge against inflation and a safe place to be while a lot of people saw the tumble int he stock market coming. Well the tumble is happening, so if you're not taking your hedge off the table now then why did you hedge against it in the first place, ya know what i mean vern?

Those carry trades are the manipulation I'm talking about. Manipulation doesn't always mean some shady dude in a dark suit..... it just means that the paper market isn't matching pure fundamentals (ie: Oil in June/July). Look at Gold lease rates for example..... those show the true picture behind what is occuring. I still hold that inflation will hit in a hard way come a few years from now - it just remains to be seen if Gold will be that historical backstop or not.

[Canmorite]

My butt hurts. What a rally.

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Canmorite
My butt hurts. What a rally.

Your butt hurts? I don't get it... this rally is a good thing.

[rc2002]

^ Not if you're short selling


If the rate cut by the fed isn't big, the market may give back a lot of the gains it made today. Hopefully they make a big enough cut.

[dezmarez]

it didnt even make any gains!!! haha
it still isnt up as high as friday
man oh man

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Inzane


Your butt hurts? I don't get it... this rally is a good thing.


Originally posted by richardchan2002
^ Not if you're short selling



Bingo :rofl:

[broken_legs]

Just got out of bed...


1000 point rally and Suncor is still sitting at 19 bux?


Oil couldn't break 65 bucks, this looks bad for oil and related equities.

[Pacman]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Just got out of bed...


1000 point rally and Suncor is still sitting at 19 bux?


Oil couldn't break 65 bucks, this looks bad for oil and related equities.

If anyone want's to buy me dinner in exchange for my November $35 Suncor calls let me know.

I would take a Big Mac combo (supersized) or perhaps a double cheeseburger combo.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Pacman


If anyone want's to buy me dinner in exchange for my November $35 Suncor calls let me know.

I would take a Big Mac combo (supersized) or perhaps a double cheeseburger combo.


Don't worry. We still have 18 trading Days!


:rolleyes:

[Canmorite]

If SU can break ~20.50 you may get a decent rally. A good move in crude would definitely help.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite
If SU can break ~20.50 you may get a decent rally. A good move in crude would definitely help.

Well this is a fire sale on Top Quality Canadian oil Sands companies. Its only a matter of time before the rumors start and an offer comes in from a Big Guy like Exxon.

Maybe I'll start those rumors myself in my new newsletter!
:rofl:


EDIT:

Breaking News: Moodys downgrades Capital one Financial from Stable to Poor credit rating based on consumer downturn.

I'm still holding my January Puts :bigpimp:

[Inzane]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Well this is a fire sale on Top Quality Canadian oil Sands companies. Its only a matter of time before the rumors start and an offer comes in from a Big Guy like Exxon.

I don't see that happening. Exxon already has a controlling share of Syncrude. They're not going to buy Suncor across the street... not unless they'd try to break the union too. It'd make more sense for them to just buy out one of the other Syncrude owners (such as Canadian Oil Sands Trust, for example).

Syncrude and Suncor are like Coke and Pepsi. Can you really see one owning the other?

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Well this is a fire sale on Top Quality Canadian oil Sands companies. Its only a matter of time before the rumors start and an offer comes in from a Big Guy like Exxon.

Maybe I'll start those rumors myself in my new newsletter!
:rofl:


If you start them... I'll start posting them on all sorts of sites!! :D :bigpimp:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
who do you guys think is a better company?
CNQ or ECA?

Would you sell "pretty much exchange" CNQ for ECA?
ECA has 32B market cap, but CNQ only 23B or so

ECA didnt even get hit as hard as other oil companies.

Encana is a good quality company about to unlock a lot of value by splitting its business into gas and oil separately.

Hard to say if the split will go through now though with all of the market woes.

I don't like anything about CNQ working for them, therefor I have nothing good to say about them as an investment.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
why dont you like CNQ?

Screw CNQ. They can Suck it.


Today is going to be Suncors day. Futures look good. Overseas looks decent, but oil is up 3 bucks. I think we finally found some support for oil THANK GOD! Now its time for a little bounce.


EDIT:

So Suncor Earnings are out. 0.87c/share. Thats 3.48 per share on the year and a PE of less than 6.


To put that in perspective Year end 2006, Suncor reported 3.33/share but was trading at 40/share and the average price of oil for 2006 was 60 bux.

How can you not love Suncor at these levels?

Be conservative. Cut their current earnings in half, just like the price of oil. so they are only earning 1.70/share, at 15 times earnings thats 26 bux per share! Its got to move eventually!!!!

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/SU_2005.jpg

[SilverRex]

gold looking good, way oversold. I guess the rate cut today plays a big part and with a sudden drop of the US dollar, gold has no way to go but up up up.

[Inzane]

For the metals folks, including SilverRex, what are your thoughts on silver.

And more specifically Silvercorp (T.SVM)?

[Z_Fan]

Thursday is gonna be a good day. I can feel it. :poosie:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Thursday is gonna be a good day. I can feel it. :poosie:


I agree.


We had the USD fall off a cliff

The market actually sold off at the last minute due to rumors or what the CEO of GE said over dinner with some reporters in France. Logns tory short, reporters thought the CEO was saying earnings will be less, but this was misinterpreted

Futures are pointing higher for GE tomorrow, so is the DOW.

If oil breaks 70 bucks i think it will rally.

Should be a really good day for energy stocks.

[bigboom]

Q3 US GDP results come out tomorrow...could be an ugly day.

[max_boost]

Waat? Is it going to be good or ugly then? lol

After two consecutive positive days and an 900pt upswing, tomorrow is definitely do for some sort of pull back but what do I know....

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by bigboom
Q3 US GDP results come out tomorrow...could be an ugly day.


WRONG!!!!


haha


So oil inventories ROSE for the 5th consectutive week, thats bearish right? WRONG!!! OIL IS RALLYING. ASIA IS RALLYING. EUROPE IS RALLYING. There was a positive surprise on consumer durables too.

This week we'll see unemployment numbers out and GDP. You have to believe that the stock market dropping FIFTY PERCENT kind of priced in the bad news. I think we'll rally on the bad news unless it surprises big time to the downside.

Yesterday we tried to rally but sold off on rumors about GE. Now that those rumors have been sorted, futures are up 200 points, GE afterhours are up to where it was trading before and should rally tomorrow on news of 7-8 billion in purchases from the Middle East.


Check out oil mend, its making moves past 70 bucks, its going to rally too.

EDIT:


GDP: -0.5% Expected... -0.3% Actual (Should be revised DOWN later)

Jobless Claims: Unchanged at 479,000

DOW is now +300 for the open!

[SilverRex]

wow most gold equity are now up 50%+ after hitting its low few days ago. KGC is insane up 65%

HUI chart looks great weekly. if it can hold its head above 200 to close off the week then surely we will see another great week following

[bigboom]

Originally posted by broken_legs



WRONG!!!!


haha


So oil inventories ROSE for the 5th consectutive week, thats bearish right? WRONG!!! OIL IS RALLYING. ASIA IS RALLYING. EUROPE IS RALLYING. There was a positive surprise on consumer durables too.

This week we'll see unemployment numbers out and GDP. You have to believe that the stock market dropping FIFTY PERCENT kind of priced in the bad news. I think we'll rally on the bad news unless it surprises big time to the downside.

Yesterday we tried to rally but sold off on rumors about GE. Now that those rumors have been sorted, futures are up 200 points, GE afterhours are up to where it was trading before and should rally tomorrow on news of 7-8 billion in purchases from the Middle East.


Check out oil mend, its making moves past 70 bucks, its going to rally too.

EDIT:


GDP: -0.5% Expected... -0.3% Actual (Should be revised DOWN later)

Jobless Claims: Unchanged at 479,000

DOW is now +300 for the open!

day just started...

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by bigboom


day just started...


Don't take it personally, im just really positive on the market action for today.

Day just started and I wrote that at 1 am... ;)


EDIT:

I go up the rig floor, make up a bha, come back and oil has sold off 3 bucks. wtf.

Must be that pesky USD making moves again

[dezmarez]

:) :) 3 days in a row!!! (knock on wood)

have we seen the bottom?

[Z_Fan]

Wow, I made a big mistake today.

I thought I was being smart after TLM went up and I sold it making a profit of $930 over my position yesterday. It dropped back down, and I was gonna buy back in and missed my buy order by a few pennies and I was out of the office LOL.

Came back, and had I just kept my shares I'd have been up a couple thousand dollars today. I hope it TANKS tomorrow! I hate it when I'm on for the ride and I suddenly get the urge to jump off...and then the real ride begins! :poosie: :rolleyes:

[Inzane]

Shoulda, coulda, woulda again eh Shawn? ;)


Anyway, I probably shoulda sold my AAPL today at the levels they hit, but I'm holding out a few more days hoping to make a few extra +% points. We'll see what happens...


Nice partial recovery on ABX today. :thumbsup:

[HP2133]

i bought friday VW AG

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
[B] I hope it TANKS tomorrow! /B]

:werd:

It'll be Friday! :devil:

So my dad dumped everything today. OIL, POT, CNQ, TRE for a nice profit and only to see everything shoot up in the last 20mins of trading. Oh well.

He'll be looking to re-buy tomorrow!!!

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Inzane
Shoulda, coulda, woulda again eh Shawn? ;)


Yup.

Oh well, at least I made some money. I just feel ripped off that it took me several days to make that cash, and if I would've just held on for 30 more minutes, I'd have made another grand. That's what bugs me.

But at least I didn't lose any money! So I'm happy about that! And of course, with my luck, tomorrow it will do 5% gap up at open, and then shoot up another 10% by Noon. LOL!

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Oh well, at least I made some money. I just feel ripped off that it took me several days to make that cash,

Dude, all you had to do was sit at your computer and make a few mouse clicks. Did you really have to work for that money? It's not like you're hard done by. :D

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Pacman]

Ok, forget the Big Mac combo....I'll trade my November SU $35 Calls for a Happy Meal and an apple pie.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Inzane
Dude, all you had to do was sit at your computer and make a few mouse clicks. Did you really have to work for that money? It's not like you're hard done by. :D

Perspective.

But I had to risk $15000 to do it.

[djayz]

Another rediculous announcement tomorrow to make the market tank hopefully :D Just like last Halloween's massacre.

[bigboom]

yeah i think the reaction wasn't as bad to the gdp announcement as it was still positive...but i definitely think we haven't got bottom yet until after q4 results come in...i think thats going to be the next bottom. im just hoping for this volatility to continue until then :)

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by djayz
Another rediculous announcement tomorrow to make the market tank hopefully :D Just like last Halloween's massacre.

That was 2006 ;)

[broken_legs]

My Prediction for tomorrow:

- Small volume (<300,000,000)
- Small trading range (8900-9250)
- No big surprises
(The U.S. Department of Commerce reports on personal income and spending for September. Economists forecast income will rise 0.1 per cent, while personal spending is expected to fall 0.2 per cent.)

-Monday we start moving higher again in a "less volatile" uptrend to somewhere between 9500-10000.


That's what my crystal ball says... There's a lot of money on the sidelines that's going to start wading in slowly. People are going to be scared they miss out on the upside. This is second day in a row there was a short squeeze at the end of the day. I just have a feeling that things will be relaxing a bit and moving higher as we can't sustain this high volatility forever....

[djayz]

Originally posted by Canmorite


That was 2006 ;)

Haha realized after posting but it feels like yesterday :rofl:

[IamTuffIRL]

Looks like a bad day tomorrow looks like
my guess dow will be down 2-3% ish

[broken_legs]

Well today is the end of the month for most mutual funds


This morning we have some economic numbers out on consumers.


I remain positive. What fund would hold on until the last day of the month to liquidate during this metldown?

This should be pretty positive for next week as well. We might see an end to the massive liquidations.

The onyl big wildcard I see coming in the near future is the election, if mccain wins the market will rally me thinks, if Obadiah wins I think its probably been priced in already.

[Canmorite]

Oil on a rip! Was above 68 briefly.

[djayz]

I almost lost this thread...everyone still recovering from halloween or what? haha

Oil's dipping lower. Looks like we have a base starting to form on the tsx as well since alot of the larger stocks are getting into a smaller and smaller trading range.

Things look good for the longer term.

Silverrex how are things looking for gold. I want to enter soon before the USD tanks.

[Supa Dexta]

I knew oil was going to continue to hold mid 60's, even with opecs emergency meeting..etc.. Good to see the dollar gaining strength, even though oil slipped a few bucks.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Canmorite]

These inside range days are killer...So used to 500 point swings haha. After the election we should get some movement.

[broken_legs]

I think were setting up for a Wednesday-Thursday-Friday Rally

or at the minimum a solid new uptrend.

Obama, 30% reduction in profits, Recession, etc, is already priced into the market. Mutual Fund selling is over. Its time to move higher.

[liquid1010]

I have to agree. If Obama gets in (most likely) I think we will see a global rally that may extend a few days (ie: into early next week), until reality sets in again. I think any big sustained upside moves in the markets however won't be seen until well after Christmas (early 2009).

[liquid1010]

Just as an additional point - here is an interesting graphic outlining insider buying on Canadian Companies. Obviously it's expected that insiders would be buying, but this gives a good idea:

http://www.canadianinsider.com/lib/marketTsxTop.php

[Inzane]

Nice morning so far. All major north american exchanges are in the GREEN! :thumbsup:

[max_boost]

Backing up the truck this morning.

POT
BMO
TLM
PCA
TCK.B
UUU (yes) lol

Hopeful for that huge rally and then mass sell off on Friday. Not my money. I'm just the trigger person and collect a very small commission if there are profits!

[djayz]

Originally posted by max_boost
Backing up the truck this morning.

POT
BMO
TLM
PCA
TCK.B
UUU (yes) lol

Hopeful for that huge rally and then mass sell off on Friday. Not my money. I'm just the trigger person and collect a very small commission if there are profits!

Curious as to why you're picking up UUU?
I've got a position I'll be selling into this rally soon but if you have some good info about it continueing it's run up let me know I'll hold :D

[SilverRex]

looks like the strong friday close for the HUI gold equity index has pushed gold stocks even further up.

Thank goodness, let see how far this rally can reach, I wont be surprise to see all these mining shares back to 50 day moving average the least.

KGC is on a crazy run, nearly double after touching its low just about little over a week ago

how things have change since.

thats why timing is everything

[bigbadboss101]

Expectation for tomorrow?

I got a few gold stocks. Take profits if it rides up a bit more tomorrow?

[Canmorite]

Tomorrow will be telling. If we get a good rally that may lead to a nice up move. Election reaction was strong today so we'll see.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Tomorrow will be telling. If we get a good rally that may lead to a nice up move. Election reaction was strong today so we'll see.


wow, sell off at the open...


wait theres no volume.... Its not real We go higher still.

Look at a chart on the VIX. Thats a pretty easy chart to decode.


Everyone knows the employment numbers are going to be ugly

Everyone knows Obadiah is president

everyone knows were in a recession

we go ups

[yellowsnow]

just bought in AET.UN, got some good tips from a CFA friend of mine

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by yellowsnow
just bought in AET.UN, got some good tips from a CFA friend of mine

Solid company. I'm in on them as well. Great distribution currently, although those might be cut depending thier ability to finance their capital program through this winter.

I nearly had a job with them a year ago . . . would have been pretty profitable . . . . sigh.

[Inzane]

So... where's the rally?

Today seemed to be pretty shitty in most sectors. Blah... :barf:

[Beerking]

Originally posted by Inzane
So... where's the rally?

Today seemed to be pretty shitty in most sectors. Blah... :barf:

Yup, got a little excited after the last few days. Glad I did not make any rash decisions, and thus I will keep watching.

[max_boost]

Meh. Not much action today. Will see tomorrow!

[dezmarez]

ya no big deal Dow is just down 5.05% haha
thats hilarious how we think a day like today isn't much action

[max_boost]

haha ooops, :facepalm: I didn't even look at the DJI today lol just paying attention to the TSX.

[aklalani]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow


Solid company. I'm in on them as well. Great distribution currently, although those might be cut depending thier ability to finance their capital program through this winter.

I nearly had a job with them a year ago . . . would have been pretty profitable . . . . sigh.

what did u guys get in at? i got a bid for $19.50 tomorrow but i may just purchase at market. Solid Yield:)