Official Short-term Investments Thread

[ExtraSlow]

I got it on the way down, at 16.60 on the 14th and 15.19 on the 15th of October.

If we bounce down again, I'll pick up some more.

[Z_Fan]

Well, I think tomorrow is gonna be much worse than today. I guess we'll see, but I'm thinking a 500-700 point loss on the TSX and maybe 400 more on the DOW.

Hahah...just a gut feeling since I bought back into things recently. It only makes sense that it would now go way down so I can lose even more money. :poosie:

[djayz]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Well, I think tomorrow is gonna be much worse than today. I guess we'll see, but I'm thinking a 500-700 point loss on the TSX and maybe 400 more on the DOW.

Hahah...just a gut feeling since I bought back into things recently. It only makes sense that it would now go way down so I can lose even more money. :poosie:

I"m with you on this one...going to be a lower day tomorrow might see a rally towards the end of the day and then friday should be a good day heading into the weekend.

[Inzane]

Well today is definitely looking to be another :barf: :thumbsdow :cry: :banghead: day.

:facepalm:

[Z_Fan]

I just love watching my money swirl down the toilet and disappear in to the abyss.

It's just so much fun. :devil:

[Beerking]

Is it weird now that when I see 400pt+ loss in a day (morning) that I do not even shrug my shoulders, let alone weep like I used too?

"I can haz chezburgr....instead of steak" is becoming more and more evident.:nut:

[max_boost]

Damn.....not what I wanted to see this morning. Getting close to the limits, axe or hold out for a rally? haha:dunno: :nut:

[bigboom]

Originally posted by max_boost
Damn.....not what I wanted to see this morning. Getting close to the limits, axe or hold out for a rally? haha:dunno: :nut:

i cut my losses today...not sure what kind of rally can come of this. at least before this you had the election. things only get worse from here is my thoughts.

but im a pessimist :)

[Z_Fan]

Oh I agree with you!

I think if we're really gonna head into a recession, the markets are just starting to fall. We should see a 5000 TSX and 6000 DOW in just a couple months time. :poosie:

[broken_legs]

Does anyone think this is short selling ahead of the widely expected horrible jobs number and other economic data that is being released on Friday?

Look at the volumes on the indices, this is a weak ass sell off.

If we are heading into a recession and companies are making 40% less, thats already priced into this market.

Obama, recession its all in there.

[bigboom]

look at all the economic indicators, they arent as bad as people guessed them to be but thats only because things are only starting to shit the bed. wait till q4 results when all the slowdown is reflected in confidence, commodity pricing, gdp growth numbers thats when things are really going to hurt.

[SilVFan]

What is a good soft drink stock to buy? I like soft drinks.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilVFan
What is a good soft drink stock to buy? I like soft drinks.

There are 2. Take your pic. One does snackfoods too.

[bigboom]

Originally posted by broken_legs


There are 2. Take your pic. One does snackfoods too.

hahaha
how much do you like doritos?

[The_Rural_Juror]

Go Pepsi. I like chicken.

[broken_legs]

Dirty Bird FTW

[ExtraSlow]

Pepsi no longer owns KFC. it's owned by YUM brands now.


Originally posted by broken_legs
If we are heading into a recession and companies are making 40% less, thats already priced into this market.

Obama, recession its all in there.

I agree. Much of the downside is priced into this market. I expect some big swings due to uncertainty, but no long term downward trend.

Still a good time to be bargain hunting.

[Godfuader]

Watching right now:

SU.TO
COS
AAPL
OIL.TO

any suggestions if I should dive in?

[Inzane]

Dunno. I'm holding AAPL still. I recently missed not one but two windows to sell over $110 in the last week. And now it's back down around $99-100. (bought in at 91.50)

I'm not sure what techs going to do in the short term. I can't see Apple not going back up eventually but it's been downgraded to ~$140-ish target from it's original $200, IIRC.

[IamTuffIRL]

currently own aapl nov 100 calls. Bought in 3.80ish currently at 4.45.

I expect apple to hit 99.50 tomorrow (peak not close) and possibly peak a little over 100.

If theres a strong trend up to 100 and good resistance, it will bounce off 100 and head to 103 ish

But i do not see it going near 110 anytime soon.

The dow should take a beating this coming week.

[Z_Fan]

Tomorrow will be a day that ends in the green for the TSX and DOW. Nothing crazy, but at least positive.

At least, it better, I've got some shit I want to sell. :poosie:

[bigbadboss101]

Nothing to get excited about!?

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Tomorrow will be a day that ends in the green for the TSX and DOW. Nothing crazy, but at least positive.

At least, it better, I've got some shit I want to sell. :poosie:

You've got 40min or so to get the dow back into positive. chop chop. :nut:

Just as a reminder, markets are open tomorrow.

[Z_Fan]

Hey, I was just guessing!

:poosie:

[kaput]

.

[ckangarloo]

I looked into getting a Q-trade account but cheaped out at the last minute and got a Questrade account.
Q-trade looks good and is advertised through my Credit Union online banking. I'm a penny pincher so I went with Questrade instead. The redflagdeal forum has lots of info on this.

http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=41

Its like this forum but more tame and has lots of Toronto stuff (blah!).

[liquid1010]

We're missing our daily bloomberg updates... what's going on here :D

[Inzane]

Another day in the shitter. :barf:

Oil below $60... WTF?? :dunno:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by liquid1010
We're missing our daily bloomberg updates... what's going on here :D

Sorry I haven't had the time to stay in the mix lately.

Still working on the newsletter lol

[Inzane]

Ouch... another BAAAD day for tech and the nasdaq.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Inzane
Ouch... another BAAAD day for tech and the nasdaq.

i'll buy when google hits a PE of 10 or less or they start offering a nice dividend

[Godfuader]

WHHEEEEEEEEEE! Im crashing into a sea of RED!

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, I lost a couple thousand bucks just on one stock in the last two days. And I actually thought I was getting in at a decent price too. Scary shit.

[max_boost]

Oh shiet.....what now......:nut: :dunno:

[BigMass]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oh shiet.....what now......:nut: :dunno:

i'll trade you 10 bushels of corn, two chickens and a mule for a cow and 10oz of bull semen?

[Godfuader]

Ouch! My most positive was -4.76%

[Canmorite]

Oil @ 55 :barf:

[Pacman]

So.....anyone know where the soup kitchens are going to be in Calgary when the recession hits?

[djayz]

Originally posted by Pacman
So.....anyone know where the soup kitchens are going to be in Calgary when the recession hits?

The Cecil :rofl:

Anybody else buying stuff right now or you guys also selling?

[Inzane]

That's it, I'm gonna jump!!

http://www.sjf.com/misc/misc024.jpg

:nut:

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by djayz
Anybody else buying stuff right now or you guys also selling?
I'm buying. Been a nice week for bargains.

[Pacman]

I'm buying puts on everything. This probably means the market is due for positive turn, as I can never seem to get things right.

[Rat Fink]

.

[jiggawhat]

What is HGU?

[Rat Fink]

.

[bigbadboss101]

I got some, at $7 though.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by Rat Fink
Horizons BetaPro S&P TSX Gold Bull ETF.
Interesting approach that they seem to be running. Investing for maximum volatility. Probably only suited to really active traders, and not a good holding for people in a "buy and hold" plan.

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow

Interesting approach that they seem to be running. Investing for maximum volatility. Probably only suited to really active traders, and not a good holding for people in a "buy and hold" plan.

These are trading vehicles and not really a holding position. They are 2X multiples and the commodities ETFs are options based.

[ExtraSlow]

Yes, I just wanted to point that out as an FYI for all the investing newbies around here. Like Me.

[IamTuffIRL]

I think Tomorrow will be slightly negative or no gain

Either that or we rally like mad.

Must get dow futures to get a good indication but all internation markets got owned - so thats not good.

Theres many great undervalue/low value stocks atm, if there is a rally, would be really good profit.

Also keep in mind the short sellers are in HEAVEN. The second theres a rally, they will be required to cover which would drive prices up significantly.

Also hedgefunds are might cash in/out. Since so many stocks are "undervalued" hedge funds might decide to jump in, in which stocks will rally like mad with the addition of short sellers.

Either break even or little lower Or Monster rally. 4%+ on dow

My picks for tommorw

yhoo $10 put in at .39
IPI 17.50 call in at .80
LVS $5 put in at .75

[Z_Fan]

I think we could be in for a really big loss tomorrow.

500+ points or more, getting us close to the start of the really bad times, which are surely just ahead.

[broken_legs]

I think we test the lows set a while back.


We'll do it on huge volume (500,000,000 +)

Everyone will finally feel that we've had/seen that capitulation that we haven't seen yet. The market bottoms and moves higher.

[Supa Dexta]

Wait for GM to tank and see how low things get...

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by IamTuffIRL
I think Tomorrow will be slightly negative or no gain

Either that or we rally like mad.

Must get dow futures to get a good indication but all internation markets got owned - so thats not good.

Theres many great undervalue/low value stocks atm, if there is a rally, would be really good profit.

Also keep in mind the short sellers are in HEAVEN. The second theres a rally, they will be required to cover which would drive prices up significantly.

Also hedgefunds are might cash in/out. Since so many stocks are "undervalued" hedge funds might decide to jump in, in which stocks will rally like mad with the addition of short sellers.

Either break even or little lower Or Monster rally. 4%+ on dow

My picks for tommorw

yhoo $10 put in at .39
IPI 17.50 call in at .80
LVS $5 put in at .75

International markets have a poor predictive capability for what happens in NA over the last few weeks. I believe that the US markets are leading the world .

I agree, if there is a rally there will be good profits.

My trading platform is down right now, so I can't see what todays volume was but Im guessing it wasn't that impressive again. So I would say short covering and shorting isn't really making the market move. I think it's pure buying and selling.

The only things Hedge funds are doing is CASHING OUT. They need cash on hand for the redemptions that come due on Nov 15th. I think hedge fund selling is why were down.

I think we retest the lows. Make new lows. Something really scary that makes everyone crap their pants. Then we can finally move on with business as usual.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Supa Dexta
Wait for GM to tank and see how low things get...

They're not going to let Gm fail man... Its a democratic house and President. They are going to give them money with no strings attached to avoid the failure then do it all over again in 10 years.

[bawlls]

oil is cheap, get some!

[ExtraSlow]

Agreed. Oil, and stocks of well-financed energy companies are good buys right now.
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=ae189090-90ae-45fb-ad6e-352038b20f55&p=2

Still liking AET.UN, TOG, SU etc.

[Rat Fink]

.

[djayz]

^^
Damn so close! haha I just put my order in for 5.05 but unlikely it will get filled today.

[bigbadboss101]

OIL and GCE, anyone taking a chance at there current prices?

[ExtraSlow]

I also like Carmanah ( CMH ). Being dragged down like all stocks, but solid balance sheet, recent global sales and pretty large growth potential.

[bigbadboss101]

Well, you guys got your HGU. Hopes the falling knives are gonna bounce and jump up high off the pavement.

Damn, this week alone, my portfolio is down 24%.

[djayz]

Yup got in at 5.10 with HGU now we need that damn gold rally!!

Edit: It's diving hard :(

[Z_Fan]

HGU sitting at $4.95 for those who missed the early low.

[wiggaplz]

what do you guys think about ITX and oilexco (OIL-T)???

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
HGU sitting at $4.95 for those who missed the early low.

$4.60 now:eek:

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101


$4.60 now:eek:

I've been watching it. But I have not bought in. The markets started out reasonably stable this morning or so it looked, and they are getting worse...hahaha...

Figures.

[ExtraSlow]

I'm not hot on Oilexco, it's a small fish trying to play a very capital intensive game up there in the north sea. http://www.newratings.com/en/main/company_headline.m?id=1835969

There are other good energy bargains out there though. Pengrowth, tristar, crescent point, Arc.

[broken_legs]

wow Dow below 8000 again.

[wiggaplz]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I'm not hot on Oilexco, it's a small fish trying to play a very capital intensive game up there in the north sea. http://www.newratings.com/en/main/company_headline.m?id=1835969

There are other good energy bargains out there though. Pengrowth, tristar, crescent point, Arc.

yeah i think i bought it at 6.50....shooting myself for doin' that. i dont trust it either. What about ITX?

[dezmarez]

man oh man
and i thought the bottom was going to be around 10000 on tsx

[wiggaplz]

Originally posted by dezmarez
man oh man
and i thought the bottom was going to be around 10000 on tsx
still a bear market.....friggin' bs. i thought we bottomed out like a couple months back, lol. i was already to catch this wave and my natural gas stocks would go up, and i'd be swimming in money. so much for that though.

[natejj]

Why oh why is Gold not at $1000 right now?

[djayz]

HGU was a great pick-up below 5!

Edit: Start of a new trend? Bush speaks and market rallies.

[Godfuader]

Originally posted by wiggaplz
what do you guys think about ITX and oilexco (OIL-T)???
Been watching OIL-T for a few weeks now. Was thinking at $6...and now its at $3.46. Its still not a 'buy' for me...but a strong 'watch'
Anyone watching IVN?

[wiggaplz]

Originally posted by natejj
Why oh why is Gold not at $1000 right now?

it's all a consipiracy, mannnnnn

[Z_Fan]

Looks like a big rally though, maybe even positive closing numbers for the TSX. We'll see.

HGU went $4.5x to $5.30 in under an hour eh...crazy.

[wiggaplz]

damn, if only i had 30,000

[Blownturbo]

anybody get caught with the downfall of tck.b?

I had to dump them to cut my losses then shorted them.

edit. TCK.B is a good buy now it should hit a high next week.

got in at 5.90 now its at 6.80 and recovering from a two day decline!

[Rat Fink]

.

[ExtraSlow]

Iteration is one company that I never seem to run across in the patch. So, I don't know anything about them.

[SilverRex]

loving the gold charts :)

[max_boost]

wow, that was a surprised. what the hell happened throughout the course of the day? :nut:

[dezmarez]

what an insane day!!!
i go in for a meeting and i come out and tsx is up almost 5%

[djayz]

Damn it, I started playing that stupid Robokill game and missed the end of the day rally sold out 2 of my positions in HGU :banghead:

[Beerking]

Holy smokes SU has taken a shit lately. So glad I kept my hands off that stuff, I would have been down 15% in no time.

Any predictions on SU here, b/c it is looking REALLY tempting right now, REALLY tempting.

dipped to 17$ today, yikes.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Beerking
Holy smokes SU has taken a shit lately. So glad I kept my hands off that stuff, I would have been down 15% in no time.

Any predictions on SU here, b/c it is looking REALLY tempting right now, REALLY tempting.

dipped to 17$ today, yikes.

Obama won, so everyone thinks that hes going to stop importing "Foreign Oil" and place taxes and levies on "environmentally destructive" oil sands operations.


Plus oil is in the 50's. Thats not particularly great for growing production and expanding reserves.

[Pacman]

Originally posted by Beerking
Holy smokes SU has taken a shit lately. So glad I kept my hands off that stuff, I would have been down 15% in no time.

Any predictions on SU here, b/c it is looking REALLY tempting right now, REALLY tempting.

dipped to 17$ today, yikes.

I really don't see it recovering anytime soon. I would love to see something positive happen, as I have calls that are expiring in Nov.

[Beerking]

Duh, 2 and 2 together.....

Makes sense, thanks gents.



My brain is fried, no moar.:nut:

[Canmorite]

Excellent bounce of support. I think we're in for a bit of a bear market rally here.

[DJ_NAV]

Buy suncor... its gonna roar!

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

http://www.commodityonline.com/ndtv/news/topstorydetails.php?id=12748

This is what I am waiting for, if China does step in, Gold price will get the lift we've been waiting for.

Not to mention the potential talk of the Comex gold market defaulting if the paper price and physical contiunes to differ.

I'm holding my best with Gold, are you?

Right now my holdings is AUY/ABX

and of course OIL. USO fund to be safer. SU isnt bad but you cannot have just one position because no one can pick the bottom, so unless you can cost average down every 2-3 dollars every position, SU isnt the best play short or medium term. But if you can spread your position on SU, then every low is a great buy because as it moves back up you slowly unwind (you have to) in a bear market, every rally is false. Look how many times we headed back to its low. its completely a day trader's heaven right now. Any long term bets will have to wait till next year

I should be sitting pretty after 5 years :)

thought for the next 6-12 months I will closely watch the asian market, especially china, with their index under 2000, they will make a very good long term bet once all of this crap stabalizes. China will drive the world for the next decade. Just be ready.

[anothers10]

SilverRex I hope your right about gold. I am holding alot of AUY right now.

[rc2002]

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081111.wmandelmandiscussion1111/BNStory/Business/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20081111.wmandelmandiscussion1111



November 12, 2008 at 1:37 PM EST

How does China's economy affect the price of gold, and why should we care?

In his latest Buyside: International Commerce column, ‘Why gold is likely heading down: Blame it on the China price,' Avner Mandelman argues that because it's been selling its products below true cost (the China price), the country is “about to meet the fate of all those who sell below true cost: mass layoffs, upheaval and perhaps a change of management.”

“Why should you care?” Avner asks. “Because of gold.”

“Recently gold has been very volatile, and could tack on $50, or even $100, in the short term. But longer term, if inflation – already quashed by Freddie and Fannie's blow-up – is further squashed by China's punctured bubble, gold is likely heading down.

Why gold is likely heading down: Blame it on the 'China Price'
“Why? First, low inflation, even deflation, will lessen the need for inflation hedges. But second, and more crucial, as the West buys less of China's more fully priced products, and as China's cash needs escalate, its government, to feed the peasants and to maintain its power, will sell state assets - including gold. This, plus inflation, could push gold much lower than anyone thinks, perhaps to half its current price. How's that for a real contrary opinion?

In 1999, Avner Mandelman founded Giraffe Capital Corporation, a Toronto money management firm, to take advantage of the pending NASDAQ correction. Subsequently Giraffe was one of only Tech investment funds in North America to have made money through the tech bubble. Giraffe's specialty is “sleuth investing”– physical due diligence of companies.

[rinny]

Would there be a benefit to holding AUY vs. YRI? Really whats the difference between holding on the US markets vs CDN when its the same company??

[bigbadboss101]

Late day rally today? Would be nice for sure but it is Friday.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by richardchan2002
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081111.wmandelmandiscussion1111/BNStory/Business/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20081111.wmandelmandiscussion1111



That article makes sense in theory, but the inflation verses deflation debate has been raging for months now. I personally believe we will see deflation first in the short term (some argue we already have seen it somewhat), and then we will move towards a period of higher inflation as global markets rebound. That might be up to five years away... but the possibility remains.

Also - I presume China would be much quicker to sell it's US treasuries that it would it's Gold stock... so I'm not sure I agree with that article.

[djayz]

TSX slowly making it's way up to breakeven. I hope we get a crazy end of day rally, atleast it will mean that regardless of all the bad news and sell offs people are still willing to buy into quality stocks. Although volume is low I think we are seeing a larger amount of buying than selling.

Edit: Nevermind the rally...picked up more HGU though :D

[DJ_NAV]

No one following the market today??? it seems like an ok day for oil stocks.