Official Short-term Investments Thread

[max_boost]

No, Oil dip to $40.32 according to BNN.
Fuck me!

Why didn't I just dump all my money into HGU instead of HOU? I would have doubled my money already!

Oh my!

:guns: :guns: :guns:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by kenny
HOU is going to finish the week at $2.88 +/- $0.03 :P

haha you might just called bingo on that one

[djayz]

BREAKING NEWS: TSX been hacked oil stocks to plummet and gold stocks to sky rocket!


















Just kidding :D

I need gold to plummet need to get in again!!!

[bigbadboss101]

I like both to sky rocket so I can sell. Next week they can both tumble.

[bigbadboss101]

TSX done for the day.

[SilverRex]

here is an intetresting thing

you know 40 dollar oil price is a good place (short term at least) to load up when the USO oil fund did not test its 52 week low but oil price made new lows instead.

This was similar to what I saw when gold shares did the same thing just a week or two ago and look at it now, gold share clearly out performed gold

Unfortunately what good is 40 dollar oil if I cant even phucking get it with the tSX being down.

oh well I'll just have to get some USO to make myself feel better

[djayz]

Yawnnnn, what a boring ass day.
Wonder what all the full-time traders across Canada are doing today haha

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by djayz
Yawnnnn, what a boring ass day.
Wonder what all the full-time traders across Canada are doing today haha

looking at commodities + US markets. Other than that, taking really long lunches. =) Markets should be up soon. There was a glitch at the London markets as well and had to shut down.

[max_boost]

It is a boring day. LOL

So on a related topic to the Oil price, is it legal for OPEC to just slash production like this to manipulate the Oil price so it goes back up? I know this is what I want and the whole $75-$80 thing suits me fine but talking to some other people who obviously don't have any HOU are calling for the dismantling of OPEC, what they are doing is NOT right blah blah blah blah.

So if the US dollar + economy is expected to stabilize in the 3rd quarter or 2009 (you hear and read this everywhere) doesn't that mean Gold is going to come crashing down? Which also means currently that Gold has a way to go still. 20% according to one of my reliable sources (who actually told me to dump everything in to Gold a couple weeks ago, I know you mentioned the same thing too SilverRex but of course I didn't listen).

[TYMSMNY]

FYI, markets are shut down for the rest of the day.

edit: TSX and TSXV are closed. everything else is open including PURE.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

RatFink can give his $0.02. Where is he these days?

Oil down down down. Are we going to see $35 this week? or next? :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

[kenny]

Originally posted by max_boost
So on a related topic to the Oil price, is it legal for OPEC to just slash production like this to manipulate the Oil price so it goes back up? I know this is what I want and the whole $75-$80 thing suits me fine but talking to some other people who obviously don't have any HOU are calling for the dismantling of OPEC, what they are doing is NOT right blah blah blah blah.


You give OPEC far too much credit. Oil price is being manipulated, but its not OPEC that is behind it. The speculators drove the price up to astronomical levels when there wasn't a strong demand for oil. With the global credit crisis and a huge drop in demand for oil because of the economy oil dropped big time.

Oil prices will drop in the near future and like SR is saying, its going to have these mini rallies so trade it sideways for now. That means no long term holding of HOU :D

[bigbadboss101]

So YRI up 30cents today.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by kenny


You give OPEC far too much credit. Oil price is being manipulated, but its not OPEC that is behind it. The speculators drove the price up to astronomical levels when there wasn't a strong demand for oil. With the global credit crisis and a huge drop in demand for oil because of the economy oil dropped big time.

Oil prices will drop in the near future and like SR is saying, its going to have these mini rallies so trade it sideways for now. That means no long term holding of HOU :D

Yep Yep.

Time to change strategies again! :werd: :facepalm: :rofl:

[bigboom]

Originally posted by kenny


You give OPEC far too much credit. Oil price is being manipulated, but its not OPEC that is behind it. The speculators drove the price up to astronomical levels when there wasn't a strong demand for oil. With the global credit crisis and a huge drop in demand for oil because of the economy oil dropped big time.

Oil prices will drop in the near future and like SR is saying, its going to have these mini rallies so trade it sideways for now. That means no long term holding of HOU :D

agreed OPEC has no control in bear markets the only time they can exert influence is in a bull market and they announce they are cutting production and even then all that occurs is speculators driving the market up unnecesarily. otherwise they have too many rogue states and people know about this that will not follow orders to cut production.

[Rat Fink]

.

[sneek]

Originally posted by max_boost
RatFink can give his $0.02. Where is he these days?

Oil down down down. Are we going to see $35 this week? or next? :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

$35 oil scares me! I am not very heavily invested in oil, but for the sake of the city...$35 oil is bad because so much development was started based on the assumption of $70+ oil. Looks like we dipped below 40 today so it wouldn't surprise me if that happened.

I feel like I have lost so much money that was "for sure" there. All support levels I used to think existed didn't exist at all. Sometimes I wonder if my portfolio would be doing better if I just drew stocks out of a hat and sold them once I start making profit.

[rockanrepublic]

stocks you say??
Gm looks very tidy this year :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

gold finally hit the downtrend line from the peak of july and oct that is around 880 and falling fast at 850

with the overall picture becoming bullish because it has crossed the 830 200 day moving average, look for this level to act as a very huge support in the short term.

I would get in if gold dips to around 825-830 but my wish list calls for 780 so to play this I will set up a position at 830 gold price and one at 780 simple right? I hope

as far dollar index the dip to 77 this fast was a surprise but now that its holding above 78 which is also a support level, I see the dollar index regaining some ground here because of being oversold extensively but the overall picture remains bearish that is great

looks like oil placed a bottom at 40 dollars, I dont discount the fact it can head to 30 but I do believe 40 will hold thru this winter season so trade between 40-55

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilverRex


looks like oil placed a bottom at 40 dollars, I dont discount the fact it can head to 30 but I do believe 40 will hold thru this winter season so trade between 40-55

Oil is trading at 38 dollars right now.

I think it goes to low 30's or touches 29.


in 2004 OPEC was producing 25 million barrels/day

That's roughly the same amount that will be produced after the cuts they just announced.

At that time oil was trading around 30 dollars.

Now if that was the fundamental supply and demand price in a balanced market, what will happen now?

Do you really believe that OPEC members will cut the 4.2 million barrels? Probably not, leaving extra supply to place further pressure on prices.

Also factor in reduced demand from world economic crisis.

That's the thesis I am subscribing to right now.

[kenny]

There goes HGD! :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Oil is trading at 38 dollars right now.

I think it goes to low 30's or touches 29.


in 2004 OPEC was producing 25 million barrels/day

That's roughly the same amount that will be produced after the cuts they just announced.

At that time oil was trading around 30 dollars.

Now if that was the fundamental supply and demand price in a balanced market, what will happen now?

Do you really believe that OPEC members will cut the 4.2 million barrels? Probably not, leaving extra supply to place further pressure on prices.

Also factor in reduced demand from world economic crisis.

That's the thesis I am subscribing to right now.

hmm what feeds are you refering too,

I steam my price feed from netdania wti crude which current sits at 43.39 and it had bottom out at 40 yesterday. Anyways this is the WTI crude price I'm refering too and continue to refer to

[dj_honda]

Nymex Crude Future 38.27 -1.79 -4.47 10:53
Dated Brent Spot 41.65 -1.44 -3.34 11:23
WTI Cushing Spot 38.99 -1.07 -2.67 09:19

- bloomberg

[broken_legs]

I quote Nymex in RT off the top of the screen on CNBC :D

[ballah]

i wish i would have bought some HOD yesterday.

[broken_legs]

JP Morgan comes out with 2009 Oil Price forecast.....




Drumroll please.......


















$43.00 average for 2009.
:barf:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Debating if I should average down on HOU. :rofl:

[ballah]

i m lookin into gettin into cos.un and hou tomorrow.. they re both takin a kicking today.

[roopi]

Why not buy them today then?

[kenny]

Hou is gonna go back up and close @ 2.88 tomorrow! ;)

But then the next drop will be to $2.35. Dump money in then. :rofl:

[DJ_NAV]

yes.. if i were buying hou.. i would buy it today.

[DJ_NAV]

how do you get these figures? just guessing?


Originally posted by kenny
Hou is gonna go back up and close @ 2.88 tomorrow! ;)

But then the next drop will be to $2.35. Dump money in then. :rofl:

[broken_legs]

Oils trading at 37.50... Just sold off another dollar in the last 20 minutes

Oil has a ways to go down yet if its going to keep following that downward trend line.

Edit

oil just traded into the high 36's


Keep in mind that the contract for Dec Expires tomorrow so oil will probably jump on Monday when it switches to the Jan contract.

I wonder if there is an easy trade there on a USO or HOU?

[max_boost]

This is such a guessing game right now. :rofl:

[max_boost]

Alright, just bought another 2000 shares of HOU at $2.57. If Oil price bounces back tomorrow, whatever, if it drops another $3, then I'll buy another 2000 shares. Fuck I'll just keep accumulating at this point. Terrible strategy I know. :rofl:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

the only way to go with etf in the long run is to rebuy.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[ballah]

just came across this stock. BOM:500010. fairly interesting.

[kenny]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
how do you get these figures? just guessing?



Yeah, pretty much like every other report or analysis you hear about on BNN. :rofl:

[DJ_NAV]

Originally posted by ballah
just came across this stock. BOM:500010. fairly interesting.

whats so interesting about it? and can you actually invest in the bombay stock exchange?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by kenny


Yeah, pretty much like every other report or analysis you hear about on BNN. :rofl:

Got some HGD at $2.80 :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[kenny]

You were supposed to buy it when I posted :rofl: @ 2.40ish

[max_boost]

Markets was closed. :(

[89coupe]

This week I bought a shit load of DVT, I'm gambling with this one. But I deal with these guys on a daily basis and they are an industry leader, I'm hoping they recover from this huge downturn.

[max_boost]

Welcome back 89coupe! :clap: :clap: :clap:

[aklalani]

Originally posted by max_boost
Alright, just bought another 2000 shares of HOU at $2.57. If Oil price bounces back tomorrow, whatever, if it drops another $3, then I'll buy another 2000 shares. Fuck I'll just keep accumulating at this point. Terrible strategy I know. :rofl:

lol im in the same boat. but we know in the back of our heads this is a LONG TERM strategy. haha

[djayz]

Got me some HOU as well...still bullish on gold so waiting for a sub 10 price on HGU.

[wiggaplz]

fuck I got greedy.......thought Teck would go up to 6.5 so set my limit there (I got in at 4) and now it's 5.3. Fuck.

[Supa Dexta]

Ok I've waited long enough, how do I sign up to start trading, who's got the best value going? I'm not really looking to do a lot of trading, just want to pick and choose here and there on somethings, mainly oil at this point, since I know the companies, and they have to come back some day.

[max_boost]

I use RBC Direct Investing. I would just go with one of the major banks and use their affiliate stock brokerage.

[Supa Dexta]

K, I'm with them for most shit anyways.

[SilverRex]

nice gold is falling back to 830 just the way it should, temporary if this gold rally has legs, 830 will hold and if your a chart reader, I would follow the trendline that it forms slowly climbing back up. only a concern if the line breaks

what is interesting is that the dollar index is rebounding from its recent lows and though the over all picture is bearish, short term this may just be a correction since it could not crack the .6 retracement and now it will retest resistance at 81.8, 83 and 84.3 what this means is, if dollar continues to regain some footing into those area, gold possibly will and can dip lower back below 800 but the catch is, you would be looking for a place to get in.

so areas to tap into gold still remains at 830 , 780 and 750

and for oil, I still believe (watching WTI crude) that the area around 40 should hold, I just cant believe it will keep pushing lower this fast and this soon without a massive rally.

if anything I have my eyes set trading between 40-55, and if I'm wrong. well, guess I'll have to average down

:nut:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[aklalani]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey rex, any predictions for OIL?
as in oilexco?

today low of .78

i wouldnt touch this one

[SilverRex]

anyways I dont follow oilexco but if it trades in sync with wti crude then (my own view stands) that 40 will hold and I still believe a short covering rally towards 50-55

as far as gold, short term 830 will hold, look at it this way currently there is 3 zones. you have the 760-830 Zone Z 830-880 zone B, the 880-930 zone C

you can trade zone B between 830-870 about. a breakout of course means it will for sure hit the upper range of zone C, but a break of 830 could mean price will fall back to earth to zone A

yes I want to buy back in Zone A, but first 830 will be a good support. It may even have legs to surge to Zone C.

so I would get in on 830 gold price and let it ride until the intermediate trend breaks (once its starts moving higher)

then I will wait for Zone A position.

but if the 830 trend line holds up then you ride it all the way until it meets up with 870 and hope it breaks so that you will take your profits at around 920

[bigboom]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey rex, any predictions for OIL?
as in oilexco?

today low of .78

OIL's only hope is to get taken over. They've put themself up on the auction block and have just received a bridge loan that should keep them in business till the end of january. I really like their assets they jsut cant get any financing to meet their debt obligations and commodity prices are hitting them hard too.

my prediction even though i think they have solid assets is bankruptcy. i just cant see any company pulling the trigger on these guys when their cash flow is limited, assets havent been developed yet even though the huntington field is an awesome find. id stay away unless you have some money you really want to lose.

[SilverGS]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey rex, any predictions for OIL?
as in oilexco?

today low of .78

Risky Business. Apparently they are headed for bankruptcy unless someone buys them out. They have funding until the end of Jan 09. If they are bought out it might be good depending on price.

[kenny]

OIL is great if you want to gamble on it, it will probably provide an opportunity to make some good $ before it completely tanks. Early next year there will be some renewed hope that they will get bought out and it'll probably go past $1.10 again only to crash and burn shortly thereafter.

[bigboom]

Originally posted by kenny
OIL is great if you want to gamble on it, it will probably provide an opportunity to make some good $ before it completely tanks. Early next year there will be some renewed hope that they will get bought out and it'll probably go past $1.10 again only to crash and burn shortly thereafter.

that depends on your view of commodity prices. the problem with oilexco is that all their production is based out of the north sea. oilexco's f&d costs are pretty close to $30/barrel if i remember correctly, also being a north sea producer their op costs/ barrel are a lot higher than onshore production. so if you were to think what their total cost/barrel would be to produce im guessing somewhere in the mid to high $40's/barrel at least. I can't think of many companies willing to take on all this extra debt obligations in this credit environment. If Oilexco's cash flow actually was able to cover some of their debt that would be no issue. but Oilexco's current cash flow is shit and cant even cover the minimum debt repayment.

why not wait for them to go bankrupt and then pick up their assets for bargain basement prices? if i was a company looking for a and d activity thats what i would do.

[kenny]

Oh don't get me wrong, I totally think OIL is gonna tank unless oil prices recover quickly in January (I don't think it will) but the market is irrational and we'll probably see OIL climb a bit before it dies.

All it takes is a rumor to spread and we'll see $1.10. :P

[bigboom]

Originally posted by kenny
Oh don't get me wrong, I totally think OIL is gonna tank unless oil prices recover quickly in January (I don't think it will) but the market is irrational and we'll probably see OIL climb a bit before it dies.

All it takes is a rumor to spread and we'll see $1.10. :P

hahaha could happen i guess. all you need to do is start a rumour like Talisman or Nexen put in a bid for Oilexco :)

Both have North Sea assets, great strategic fit. ;)

yeah unless oil rebounds to at least $60/barrel OIl is done.

[bigbadboss101]

I have OIL and averaged down for some more last little while. Oh well, hope for a miracle.

[max_boost]

Something isn't right with HOU. Oil price is down another $2.XX but HOU is actually up $0.02. :nut:

Could it be due for a violent rally next week? Volumes are insane! Fuck that, I picked up another 4000 shares today. Here's to hoping something big! lmao! :eek:

[kenny]

If my crystal ball is right... I think HOU will open high on Monday (my original prediction of around $2.88) and will trend upwards for the day to reach around $3.00 - $3.10. Good move on the 4000 shares!

:thumbsup:

[Z_Fan]

I bought a couple thousand shares of HOU today as well.

Seemed cheap. :poosie:

[yobi5888]

What exactly is the difference between HOU and HOD?

[eljefe]

Originally posted by yobi5888
What exactly is the difference between HOU and HOD?

The D :p

Edit- I jumped on for 10,000 shares of HOU as well at 2.47- here's hoping Monday brings a smile

[SilverRex]

yeah im in HOu 2.61 jumped the gun a little soon (thanks to the stupid TD waterhouse, I had originally set it lower as it dip to below 2.5 however they suddenly filled at my original order. :banghead:

I see gold will rise monday, hopefully a great week before christmas then its 11 days of hell with left4dead 4 players :) lock n loaded

[max_boost]

Holy snap, so many of us part of the HOU wagon hahaha. This is awesome, sink or swim together boys. :thumbsup: :rofl: I'm up to 14,000 shares now. :nut:

[ckangarloo]

Originally posted by max_boost
Holy snap, so many of us part of the HOU wagon hahaha. This is awesome, sink or swim together boys. :thumbsup: :rofl: I'm up to 14,000 shares now. :nut:

I don't know, I'm thinking HOD still for a little while. No reason really, just have a feeling the bottom isn't in just yet.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I bought a couple thousand shares of HOU today as well.



Originally posted by eljefe
I jumped on for 10,000 shares of HOU as well at 2.47- here's hoping Monday brings a smile


Originally posted by SilverRex
yeah im in HOu 2.61 jumped the gun a little soon


Originally posted by max_boost
Holy snap, so many of us part of the HOU wagon hahaha. This is awesome, sink or swim together boys. :thumbsup: :rofl: I'm up to 14,000 shares now. :nut:

Me too... me too!! :rofl:

I got in for a couple thousand at 2.55 this morning. :thumbsup:

[max_boost]

How accurate are futures trading price compared to the actual price when that month hits? Do I make any sense? Will investors do whatever they can to drive it up or down by issuing any kind of news? You can't always be correct in trading futures. :dunno:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL

From that link, Jan futures are $36. So in January if the prices are higher than that, then all the futures traders make money, correct? That's if they redeem or sell their futures contract? I'm really not sure how it works. :nut:

[Canmorite]

Yesterday was rollover day for Oil, so we're now trading the Feburary contract.

At the end of the month you need to close out your position, unless you want to take/make delivery of 1000 barrels per contract held.

[ballah]

i purchased some hou as well on friday. i hope that monday will be a good day in the markets. then, i m gonna buy more cos.un (since it s at 18.65 per unit). that s if the units are goin up in value.

[DJ_NAV]

lol.. i hope hou goes over 4... cuse thats when alot of them...3 wont do it

[max_boost]

Some good reading on trading futures, it's way too hardcore for me:

http://www.investopedia.com/university/futures/default.asp

But I did catch this part.


Prices in the cash and futures market tend to move parallel to one another, and when a futures contract expires, the prices merge into one price.

You boys going to cash in on Monday or hold out for the big prize? :bigpimp:

[Canmorite]

I don't think Oil is going anywhere fast, but the forward years are forecasting prices of 60/bbl +.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Yesterday was rollover day for Oil, so we're now trading the Feburary contract.

At the end of the month you need to close out your position, unless you want to take/make delivery of 1000 barrels per contract held.

So from what I'm reading, the expiry date is the 3rd Friday of each month. Also, the gains and losses are realized at the end of each trading day. Most traders also trade on margins. Wow. Just wow. The risk involved is just :eek: but the reward is also :bigpimp:

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by max_boost


So from what I'm reading, the expiry date is the 3rd Friday of each month. Also, the gains and losses are realized at the end of each trading day. Most traders also trade on margins. Wow. Just wow. The risk involved is just :eek: but the reward is also :bigpimp:

Not sure what the expiry date is, but the last day of trading is usually really volatile due to so many orders going through.

All futures trading requires margin, and it's usually a lot haha.

[DJ_NAV]

did anyone cash in on RIM?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

We'll find out tomorrow if Friday's closing price moves in line with the futures price. :D

[wiggaplz]

what sites can I use to view the CP Indexes, etc over long periods of time? What do you guys use?

[SilverRex]

premarket looking up for HOU 2.7x+? I hope its a good week, considering short covering, option expiring typically pushes price higher in the 4th week. The only thing is, Decemeber is a wild month as many are closing out their balance to end the year. I hope all shorts cover is a good one here right up until Janurary.

gold bounced of 830 nicely, definately a place to get in as AUY back up 12.5% after hitting the low of 6.22 on friday. I regret not picking up some and hessitated on HGU why? because Ive got myself loaded up on HOU :D

[eljefe]

Well, good bad or otherwise.....picked up another 10,000 at 2.40 and have bids in at 2.35 and 2.25

[eljefe]

and another 10,000 at 2.35..........

[max_boost]

So what's going on here? HOU down? :rofl:

[ballah]

^^haha. i know dude. and HOD is on the ups again today.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by max_boost
So what's going on here? HOU down? :rofl:

2.34 and sliding

[max_boost]

But Oil price is over $40! WTF! :confused:

[DJ_NAV]

dang... buying HOD is soo tempting.. but i think its way too late... but who knows.. ive been saying that for 2 weeks! lol. I wish i bought it in July!

SU is down 9%... good buy?

[eljefe]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
dang... buying HOD is soo tempting.. but i think its way too late... but who knows.. ive been saying that for 2 weeks! lol. I wish i bought it in July!

SU is down 9%... good buy?

I'd be more inclined to buy cos.un

[djayz]

Damn we are all getting screwed with HOU haha.

But look at the volume difference between HOU and HOD!

[yoda124]

FWIW ...even the taxi drivers around town are telling me oil is headed back up.I use that as a contrarian indicator oil has to fall much furthur.

[SilverRex]

hold on to your horse, its difficult to stomach the swings. I still believe in the rally to the 50day moving average that will take it from 40 to 55. Then I will exit and wait because next year will bring much lower prices.

if anything, im tempted to get more at 2.35 hmmm:poosie: