Official Short-term Investments Thread

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
its 28.99 if you have less than 200k in assets.

$100K.

Good job broken_legs, that's way too gangster for me.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[cdnsir]

Originally posted by Mckenzie


Well in the case of Nortel, it will likely be a long and ridiculous process to pay the debtors off in the event of a full scale liquidation. A 'conservator' will likely be appointed (big 4 accounting firm) to restructure the company, fire people, hire people, sell assets, make management decisions, make payroll, etc.

It could be a long ride but pretty much you could be screwed in the event of a major restructuring...obviously you are aware you are last on the totem pole. I do not see any value in the common shares of company like Nortel for a long time as they are due for a MAJOR house cleaning. Sucks to hear you have cash in there.

Thanks for the input man. Yea, it sucks hard man... First major set back ever for me. Oh well, shit happens, gotta move on right.

Did some research about this in the afternoon, turns out no point even selling for the few dollars that I'll get back. Might as well just let it sit and evaporate instead of letting TD take $30 from me to cover my transaction fee... LOL

[4DoorGTZ]

Originally posted by cdnsir


Might as well just let it sit and evaporate instead of letting TD take $30 from me to cover my transaction fee... LOL

I feel the same about Oilexeco, sigh :(

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
i was actually trying to by oilexco, just to intraday trade

it is constantly moving from .155 to .16 or from .15 to .155
thats every 5 min or so
so just wanted to gamble today, since thats a 3% gain every 0.005c


Just because thats where it is moving doesnt mean that you are going to buy/sell at those prices... The trap of penny stocks. You can set your buy at .155 but never get filled because there are 30,000,000 bids in front of you, then the same with the sellers at 0.160. I you have to get out or in, you'll end up buying higher and selling lower.


Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow good job man

everytime i get amarket order, it takes for ever! to get filled wtf?

Even with volume of 5M

Like, yesterday i think, i was trying to get a stock at 9, but got it at 9.42 because it took so long

Since im not using Web Broker anymore, there are no orders 'routed to an investment specialist'. A lot of online brokers through banks route your order trough a trader first. I use Active Trader so my orders go direct to the exchange unless its a VTSO in which case when its triggered the market order goes to a trader on the floor.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Bimmer88]

I use TD Waterhouse... money is money and I really don't like paying that $29 some dollars everytime but to make it worth wild gotta invest a lot of money.

Question for those who use the TD Waterhouse. Is there a way to set it so when the stock dips to a certain price that it will buy automatically?

Thanks,
Steve

[bigbadboss101]

Found this on the HOU stockhouse board. I found it useful.

1. AN ETF doesn't have a set number of shares, it is like a mutual fund. If you buy above the NAV the market maker sells you shares short. He can buy the underlying index cheaper (if your buying above). He gives the assets to the company and gets shares from the company which covers his short. In short you can't buy it up, talk it up or anything else; it tracks the index. The market maker takes the other side as well. The fact is he is usually selling. The number of shares in HOU are up about 1000 % in the last 6 weeks (i'm taking into account the reverse split). He should be about even but is usually selling because most are too hopeful. He maintains a bid ask spread to get the ETF to track oil. The spread moves up and down with oil. It will buy or sell to you if you have an offer in.

2. The mistake that most make are they are thinking they are buying oil. They are not exactly, and that's exactly the next problem. The fund buys futures contracts on WTI oil on the NYMEX. It is the MAR contract CLG09. This rolls-over to the next months contract CLH09, since that contract will expire on the 25th. The rollover doesn't happen on the last day, and it doesn't happen all at once. It happens earlier. I think on the 7,8,9 days of the month for HOU. I'd have to look this up because i don't remember exactly. That means that the fund sells the contracts it has and buys MORE expensive ones. If you have a certain amount of money after you sell the first contracts and then buy more expensive ones; you buy LESS contracts. That's CONTAGO. If the next month was cheaper then that would be BACKWARDATION. Seriously look up those two words, it's important to understand. If oil slowly went up, HOU would go down. When you realize this fact, and it's true, simply buying HOU to participate in oil doesn't seem so simple. I personally couldn't believe how stupidly naive I was when I pieced it together, just to let you know.

3. All double ETF's have this problem up and down. IF you go up 10 % down 10 % over and over and over you end up at ZERO. The doubling effect causes the issue and it has been documented on the US boards. I worked it out on the Horizon funds and i have read about on US board and Crammer has mentioned it. I could provide more math or examples to back up my point. I would write a excel program if i were you and justify it to yourself.

In short the rollover, and the ETF effect kills you long term UNLESS the move is one direction and backwardation sets in. Lots of money to made trading if you have the chops. Lots to be lost. Long term, hard to tell. I'm only in oil somewhat now a days because it is hard. It could be $20 bucks or $120 in 6 months and everyone would say 'of course I knew it would'. You have to worry about terroist, weather, demand, supply, exchange rates, the overall market, contago, backwardation, the rollover and more.

A few weeks ago when OIL was $35 people bought HOU like it was god's gift. They weren't buying $35 January oil unfortunately because the contract had already rolled. They were buying the $46 MAR oil. It then went to $38 and everyone got killed. Some thought that HOU would instantly jump up when the January contract expired thinking that the MAR oil at $46 would cause a 50% jump. If 50% gains were that easy I would already be on my island and it wouldn't have internet. I couldn't explain to most how this couldn't be true; until they lost piles of money the next day. Simply WHERE WOULD THIS MONEY COME FROM. If the fund owned a tank of oil then maybe that could be the case but it doesn't, it owns futures contracts.

If your going in, manage risk, DON"T double down and know what contract is in effect. Take profits, Long term you'll have a hard time, in my opinion. I'm not trying to scare you off but as I said I watch the market maker sell to investors all day long, nearly everyday. Watch the USO, it usually tracks it close unless it's an options expiry day. If oil drops, the market maker will sell it down however many shares it takes. He will beat you to it most times. You have to decide what numbers your looking for and not try to beat the market maker to the punch.

I wrote a pile of posts on this just before christmas and here are some links.


http://www.nymex.com/index.aspx



http://www.hbpetfs.com/fundSummary.asp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backwardation



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contango

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USO

Later

[4DoorGTZ]

Originally posted by Bimmer88
Question for those who use the TD Waterhouse. Is there a way to set it so when the stock dips to a certain price that it will buy automatically?

Thanks,
Steve

Change the "market price" option to "limit price" and then enter your desired price.
"Limit Price
Select Limit Price to enter the maximum price you will pay on a buy order and the minimum price you will accept on a sell order."
^when you click "help" at the order entry screen.

A) "buy" "limit price" x, current price =2x, your order will execute when the current price drops to x, it could continue lower, but shortly after it goes down through x you'll have bought. or it could rebound right after and come back to 2x and you're sitting pretty at a cost of x.
B) "sell" "limit price" 2y, current price =y, your sell wont go through until the price goes up to 2y, could keep going to 5y and you cry over a missed oppurtunity, or it then plunges to 0.5y and you're glad you got 2y for your shares.

I'm no expert as my portfolio would atest to that, but thats how I see it.

[roopi]

** Just noticed someone already explained this but I'll leave my response anyways. :banghead:


Originally posted by Bimmer88
I use TD Waterhouse... money is money and I really don't like paying that $29 some dollars everytime but to make it worth wild gotta invest a lot of money.

Question for those who use the TD Waterhouse. Is there a way to set it so when the stock dips to a certain price that it will buy automatically?

Thanks,
Steve

When you are on step 1of 3 (Order Stocks Page) in the price section click the 'Limit Price' radio button and in the text box enter the max price you would like to pay (this obviously has to be lower than the current trading price). Pretty much what you are doing is setting a buy limit order.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/limitorder.asp

[e36bmw///]

nm

[rumeo]

hey guys fairly new to the stock stuff,

if you buy a company's stock, then it goes bankrupt, do you lose whatever you invested (this is my guess), or does the company have to reimburse you.

please dont flame lol

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

gold is still holding around 807-809, however any dip lower could be a break towards 750 which in my opinion would be the ultimate place to get in for gold.

HUI index is near its 50 day and it's correction is near the end I would say anything below 240 would be a good pick up on that index so HGU would be a great play in coming days

oil is showing more weakness but the buying below 36 is apparent, and its holding the bleeding that could cause it to hit 30 dollars, so could 35 be the bottom? or a double bottom here? I would say so

with Obama taking office soon, I think the 20th if I'm not mistaken, one has got to think, will there be a rally. Will the DOW finally put in a triple bottom and move the market back to its 200 day moving average at around 10.5k

[civic_rida]

Im curious to hear some peoples oppinoun about the above post concerning hou.
It sounds like holding hou for long term is not a good idea even if oil goes up.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Im curious to hear some peoples oppinoun about the above post concerning hou.
It sounds like holding hou for long term is not a good idea even if oil goes up.
I'm not kind of expert, but I belive that's correct. any of the 2x and 3x ETF's are poor choices for anything but short term trading.
If you read the discussions on google finance, there is a lot of argument about this, not everyone agrees.

My opinion is that these aren't investments, they are gambling.

[DJ_NAV]

^I have HOU from 1.5 months before and I was in the green last week for couple of hours.... no reason why I cannot be there again.

[Beerking]

I give up, this market has been garfunkled:nut:

Either I buy thinking that it is going to keep going up ie. good trend line (next day it nosedives)

OR

I hold thinking that just 1 or 2 more trading days and I will see enough gains to sell out (next day it nosedives and is now continuing to do so). FFFUUUUUUU, what makes you frustrated????


:facepalm:

[Rat Fink]

.

[civic_rida]

i think we are going to see 30 dollar oil again

[Bimmer88]

So of course with TD waterhouse I'm getting this error:

You cannot enter an on-stop order on odd lot quantity of shares. Please modify your order details.[60216]

and If I remember correctly it means I can't buy like 80 but I have to buy in lots of 100 correct?

Thanks,
Steve

[civic_rida]

i dunno but hou is 7.77

[SilverRex]

gold and silver doesnt look good, I say gold at 770 and silver at 10 will be my entry point.

I reduced half of my silver exposure

speaking of ETF, HGU should be attractive when it gets to about 7-8 dollars.

and oil after break below 35, looks like the move towards 30 is on. I was going to buy back at around 8, but the break below 36 is pretty significant so I will now wait for 30 dollar oil which HOU will be around 6 dollars.

[dj_honda]

hod is almost 29!

[89coupe]

How is your guys HOU doing? :rofl:

[civic_rida]

thinking ill be buying in at 5 dollars soon.

[SilverRex]

^

price changes daily, and while 5 dollars were what it looks like, based on the current price relative to oil, I think it will be close to 6 dollars now if oil was to dip to 30

[roopi]

Originally posted by 89coupe
How is your guys HOU doing? :rofl:

I'm sure some of the people who are down on this probably don't feel to great about it. Once again you've proved you are a dipshit by laughing at people about it. I take it all of your investments are up a few hundred percent right?

[max_boost]

Careful with HOU guys.

Read up on bigbadboss1's posting on HOU on page 223.

Right now the spread between current and near month is close to $10. When the rollover takes effect later this month, we'll be trading at $43 and not $33 (currently) and you automatically lose the $10 appreciation on the oil price. Remember, HOU tracks the daily movement in the price.

So $33 oil current month is $7.70 HOU, when rollover occurs and we get $43 oil, HOU will still be $7.70 (assuming rollover is tomorrow for example)

With all the negative news coming out, American banks needing more cash, home foreclosures on the rise, chances are oil will not trend upwards, even with the OPEC cuts (at least not immediately).

The last time the rollover occurred, oil went from $33.87 to $42.XX. If you remember, it had trend lower to $35 AGAIN but this time it was saved by the conflict in Gaza/Israel. Investors were also using the Russia/Ukraine gas dispute in addition to OPEC cuts to drive the price back up. As we see, the American economy is in the shits (I underestimated their situation) and their supply/demand reports currently far outweigh any geo-political conflict and until their consumption resumes, we probably won't see any increase in oil price.

Trade carefully with HOU.

I could be wrong in my assessment but these 2X ETF's are very dangerous. Great money gained and loss. I fortunately have several positions and can stomach the losses.

[dj_honda]

what are the exact dates for this? ^^ says later this month....i think the feb contract expires tommorrow, no?

[civic_rida]

Does anyone know when the rollover date is?

[89coupe]

Originally posted by roopi


I'm sure some of the people who are down on this probably don't feel to great about it. Once again you've proved you are a dipshit by laughing at people about it. I take it all of your investments are up a few hundred percent right?

You don't think its funny when you see one sheep bolt in a certain direction, all the other sheep follow.:rofl:

[roopi]

Originally posted by 89coupe


You don't think its funny when you see one sheep bolt in a certain direction, all the other sheep follow.:rofl:

I agree with that but there is no reason to kick a person when they are down. Refresh my memory; why did you stop posting in this thread about six months ago and why are you back now?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by dj_honda
what are the exact dates for this? ^^ says later this month....i think the feb contract expires tommorrow, no?

For example, HOU begins trading the March contract on the 7th, 8th, 9th business day of our current month. So today we are trading the March contract (even though the February contract is displayed)


Originally posted by civic_rida
Does anyone know when the rollover date is?

It's the 3rd or 4th business day before the 25th of the month.

[89coupe]

Originally posted by roopi

Refresh my memory; why did you stop posting in this thread about six months ago and why are you back now?

The sheep
Bored

[civic_rida]

So what happens on the rollover?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by roopi


I agree with that but there is no reason to kick a person when they are down. Refresh my memory; why did you stop posting in this thread about six months ago and why are you back now?

He's lost more money than all of us combined anyway. Let him have his moment!:thumbsup:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
So what happens on the rollover?

Look at it this way.

Pretend rollover day is tomorrow.

Today it's $35 oil and $8 HOU.

Tomorrow it's $43 oil and it's STILL $8 HOU.

You don't gain from the $8 increase in futures trading price. You actually lose that appreciation. So now you are trading at $43 oil. If you want to make money, it's going to have to go up from $43 and onwards.

One would think, WTF? I was just trading $35 oil yesterday, it's not worth $43! Bad news will come out and it'll just tank again, possibly to $35 again which is what happened last time before the Middle East crisis began.

Read up on contango and backwardation.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 89coupe


The sheep
Bored

Not everyone is on HOU. A few guys switched over.

[max_boost]

My $0.02

FWIW, because of the large discrepancy in the current and future month pricing resulting in contango and the fact the American economy is not going to recover soon, I'm all out of HOU and converted to HOD.

If you guys want to follow, go right ahead.

[SilverRex]

to each their own

go oil go :)

[DJ_NAV]

Bought some hod. at mid 26, alrady cashed in like 15% off hgu in 3 hours.

[civic_rida]

max_boost so you took a huge loss?

[max_boost]

^^

Yes I did.

It's a personal choice based on my evaluations of things.

I'm not liking the contango situation one bit.

Happy Trading!

[bigbadboss101]

Ok so with HOU we have to consider the roll over etc.
How about for HOD? I guess as long as prices are dropping it's not an issue? It's all new concept to me :eek:

[max_boost]

To add:

It's just a deja vu scenario for me. It's unfolding exactly how it went last month. I got caught last month and don't want to get caught again. I could be right, I could be wrong.

Last month, $43 oil, it got up to $50 on OPEC cuts etc. (I didn't sell) before a mass sell off to $33.87 on bad news/inventory report as January contracts ended.

February contacts start at $43, dips to $35 before Middle East conflict, OPEC cuts etc. drives it up to $50 again (I didn't sell) and drops again below $35 on bad news and inventory report.

So.....yeah hindsight 20/20. Sell both times it gets to $50 and profit right? Greed takes over and you want $55! It drops back down and you don't sell. Anyway......

When the March contract starts at $43 again, it's only going to take some bad news and another inventory report for it to drop again!

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me!

I underestimated the pull the Americans have on the world economy. It's far bigger than any conflict or dispute. That is unless Iran gets bombed then who knows! But I was too idealistic in thinking the recession was going to come to an end. It's far from over imo! Until they get their shit together, consumption and demand will be down!

And that is why I switched over to HOD!

If I lose all my money on this, it'll be like losing the SLK! I don't drive it anyway so whatever! lol :rofl: :drama:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Ok so with HOU we have to consider the roll over etc.
How about for HOD? I guess as long as prices are dropping it's not an issue? It's all new concept to me :eek:

AFAIK, Yes!

:thumbsup:

Edit.

It matters too. If the rollover price was LOWER the next month, then we would be in backwardation! Think about that, if we are at $35 and rollover is $27 next month, chances are it's going to go up right? ;)

If you look at the futures right now, every month is higher (that's contango, buy now, store it and sell later).

If it were the other way around, I would be much more confident in the price bouncing back. Right now, I'm just not optimistic.

[tentacles]

Yeah, as mentioned I switched from HOU to HOD when HOU was at 9 and HOD at 25, but got out completely when HOD hit 27 today. I think I'm going to just watch from the sidelines for a bit.

[DJ_NAV]

honestly.. i think ideally you wanna hold hou or hod for half a day.... max up to 2 days. smaller gains.. but in a shorter period too.

[bigbadboss101]

Last Monday, 10 days ago both HOU and HOD were around $15 ish. I sold HOD and got in HOU. Cost me probably $15 grand.

[Z_Fan]

Well, I lost $1,000.00 on HOU. But I decided a while ago to sell and stay out. I should have switched to HOD at the time I sold HOU, and I'd be way ahead.

But I'm glad I'm not out $15k like some of you poor bastards. Cuz I know how fast that happened, and that sucks...

[max_boost]

^
hehe

That's why you only risk what you are willing to lose. It sucks to be down and lose money no doubt and that's the risk involved.

Anyway, last day of trading for Feb contracts is Jan 20th which happens to be inauguration day! Well, is there an Obama rally? Or has that past? Is the $350 billion he's seeking already priced into the markets? Is the oil price and markets tied as one right now?

Million dollar questions!

[civic_rida]

Yea I just finished reading further about hou March Contracts are around 43 dollars.
I should of done more reasearch this contango thing is pretty stupid.
This stock is more for day trading not holding onto long term. This lesson is gonna cost me though:banghead:
Hoping for a obama rally

[SilverRex]

looks like on WTI crude price on netdania has just rolled over, it explained why it jumped from 33 to 43 dollars.

then again thre is one thing one can consider. there are some months like december where if it didnt roll over to the next month, then HOU would have got slaugtered when oil december contract sold off to 33 dollars. during that drop, HOU actually held up abit because it was trading the janurary contract.

Yes perhaps HOU isnt really the best long term approach, but at the same time it's not subject to just day trade. I say medium term works too.

;)

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Bimmer88
So of course with TD waterhouse I'm getting this error:

You cannot enter an on-stop order on odd lot quantity of shares. Please modify your order details.[60216]

and If I remember correctly it means I can't buy like 80 but I have to buy in lots of 100 correct?

Thanks,
Steve

TSX only allows stops of even lots.


Originally posted by max_boost


Not everyone is on HOU. A few guys switched over.

I've been a bear for a while. I say we see 27 dollar oil.


FRICK. I didn't have any money in HOD over night last night or in the market at all. I was up on the rig floor all night and all the last three days of day trading meant i needed some sleep today.

Good news, i finallt got 8 hours of sleep. Bad news, i missed out on half the trade ive been talking about for weeks.

Lets see what happens tomorrow...

[max_boost]

I'm not sure what affect the bailout is going to have. It might cause another fake rally?

If oil drops, the stops are in place and buy orders for even lower.

If oil goes up, I'm selling to profit take and re-buying lower too.

It's all in place. I'm going to go do cardio, get a good night's rest and see what happens tomorrow.

:thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

well gold did hold at the 800-808 range as I saw from last week, however I underesitmated the strength in this level, I was hoping for 770 gold and 10 dollar silver which would be my ultimate buy in point.

Anyhow I do have other position so I'm fine if it goes up from here, then again I do believe gold is currently weak and should gear towards the downside first before heading to higher grounds, thus I am still not going to panic for not loading up at around 808 (stupid me) even though I recommended it last week lol

now lets see if the 200day and trendline at around 840-850 can hold and push gold lower. I WANT silver at 10 dollar SOOO BAD please come to papa.

and while oil for HOU had already rolled over to next month's contract, chart wise I'm starting to see other's catching up as well. but I can still see the picture that oil is around 35 and before heading anylower based on the downware trendline, it has to first go up to about 37, before any attempt lower. Ofcourse if it heads up more than 2 dollar, then it could be worrisome for those who are playing short. (that means it broke out of the downward channel which was peak 39 to 38 and low 36 to 33.)

I just feel, (and hope) an official obama rally is around the corner comes today or monday or even tuesday, the 350billion passing thru and another 800 on the way. the 8000 DOW did hold as I would have guessed, a triple bottom you say?


and... just a piece of advice for those who are jumping between HOU and HOD. ignore this if you already know this but those that dont try to remember you will have a higher sucess rate if you pick your entry and exit instead of blindly jumping in, reason I say this is typically if you are shorting oil, you wont want to short it when oil just made a new low, the newly created low could cause a rally hence for oil shorters you usually enter when oil rallies that is why people say short the rallies and buy the lows.

I know you can still be wrong but you will find yourself in a better position when you do this. Like yesterday as an example, oil made new low at 33 only to push all the way back near 36. had you short at 33, (using jan contract price as example) you would be running straight head on with the bulls. Not too smart right?

dont sell at support levels, you short at resistance levels where everyone on earth uses to enter.

Anyways good luck to all though

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm not sure what affect the bailout is going to have. It might cause another fake rally?

If oil drops, the stops are in place and buy orders for even lower.

If oil goes up, I'm selling to profit take and re-buying lower too.

It's all in place. I'm going to go do cardio, get a good night's rest and see what happens tomorrow.

:thumbsup:

You do cardio at 11 pm??

[DJ_NAV]

hod down right now... im predicting it will be in the green within 2 hours! lol

[bigbadboss101]

I say 10 minutes

[DJ_NAV]

^ wow that didn't take too long... 20 mins and it umped like 40 cents.

[SilverRex]

assuming we were still trading feb oil which is now around 35, it did hit 36.70 which is close enough for the downware channel, hence it will shoot for retest to 33 which is probablly around 40 for our march contract.

any rally will either be at 40 or 37 (if feb oil dips to 30)

with the big Obama day next tuesday, it is certainly setting up for a rally. How big the rally I do not know but I am sure there will be one.

[DJ_NAV]

^wtf... dropped 40 cents in 5 mins!

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex

try to remember you will have a higher sucess rate if you pick your entry and exit instead of blindly jumping in

Absolutely. Set your stops too!

Oil on its way down, HOD on its way up. I'm getting a bit greedy again, hopefully it hits my trigger so I can profit take and re-buy in later hehehe


Originally posted by bigbadboss101


You do cardio at 11 pm??

Yeah unfortunately with my work schedule it's the only time I have to get it done! haha

[DJ_NAV]

^What are your selling points for HOD today? I'm hoping my order for 28 goes through.

[civic_rida]

gold is doing good today.

[SilverRex]

one thing I notice when looking back the last few months, typically the difference when future contract roll over isnt that huge but we have seen a huge gap in the last two months even so I also notice right when WTI crude price updates its roll over price , oil price typically falls.

So now I have to wonder, would it be a good strategy to buy hod right when it rolls over (chart wise) because technically it seems to want to either come down to retest the low or it has to find a median price.

take netdania chart for example, it typically rolls over its next contract price around 15-17th each month, then it will dip for a week and on the end of the 3rd week and on between 20-29th, is when oil makes a rally. Probablly because it has to meet up with the price of the previous month's contract.

I say the higher the gap between the roll over, the higher chance that oil price will fall.

So I would say buy HOD when price rolls over in the middle of the month, then turn around and pick up hou near the last week to catch the rally.

[bigbadboss101]

I don't know DJ NAV, might be ok to hold for couple more days.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
one thing I notice when looking back the last few months, typically the difference when future contract roll over isnt that huge but we have seen a huge gap in the last two months even so I also notice right when WTI crude price updates its roll over price , oil price typically falls.

So now I have to wonder, would it be a good strategy to buy hod right when it rolls over (chart wise) because technically it seems to want to either come down to retest the low or it has to find a median price.

take netdania chart for example, it typically rolls over its next contract price around 15-17th each month, then it will dip for a week and on the end of the 3rd week and on between 20-29th, is when oil makes a rally. Probablly because it has to meet up with the price of the previous month's contract.

I say the higher the gap between the roll over, the higher chance that oil price will fall.

So I would say buy HOD when price rolls over in the middle of the month, then turn around and pick up hou near the last week to catch the rally.

It's probably coincidence that oil rallied during the 3rd week.

The first time it rallied, it immediately came crashing down after it briefly touched $50. This was based on OPEC announcing record cuts.

Second time it was OPEC cuts + Middle East crisis + Russia/Ukraine gas dispute.

Both times they came crashing down to $35 on news of the American economy.

So you can see American economy > any other news (short of the Middle East getting nuked)

The record spread is contango baby. People buying up the oil, storing it and selling later. Well, there's no more storage room so you'll probably see investors liquidating their contracts further depressing oil prices.

This is exactly how things unfolded last month. Like I said, fool me once, shame on you! fool me twice, well, you see, you can't get fooled again! (GW Bush). :rofl:

I'm going to hold my HOD. Hoping for 40% returns next week when we see $35 oil. Going to cash out, wait on the sidelines for the fake rally. Then I'll buy in again and watch it tank hehe

[civic_rida]

yea so much for the obama rally. Hope monday is a different story so i can get out.

[RX_EVOLV]

I actually caved and bought back into HOU just now after selling at $14.85 last week ( would've sold in 15s if stupid bmo would let me trade after the consolidation)

What im seeing is HOU moving right along side with the Dow.. Dow goes up. oil goes up.. dow goes down. oil goes down.. The Dow seems to have more effect than all the OPEC cut, gaza war, cold weather etc on oil price. So I'm buying Hou hoping for an obama rally next week!!

[natejj]

Originally posted by natejj
Anyone done any research on SkyGold Ventures (SKV)? A BC Junior Mining company with some large gold deposits. Just completed financing for 12 million..... might be a good buy at its current price.

http://www.skygold.ca

I don't know if anyone looked into this company I mentioned a while back, it was in the 8 cent to 12 cent range at the time. Anyways, I picked up 20k shares.... I'm laughing at 27 cents right now.

[max_boost]

You guys want to chip in and buy 1000 barrels of oil? That's the min. order right? Store it somewhere and sell it later this year? Like what everyone else is doing right? :thumbsup: :rofl:

[RX_EVOLV]

holy volatility... $8.67 when i decided to go change and put on my contacts.. came back with it trading at $8.08!

[dj_honda]

Originally posted by natejj


I don't know if anyone looked into this company I mentioned a while back, it was in the 8 cent to 12 cent range at the time. Anyways, I picked up 20k shares.... I'm laughing at 27 cents right now.

stocks like this are great when you look at the price, but 20k shares is over half of today's volume. i didn't look at the avg volume per day, but as mentioned with 89coupes divestco stock, when you try to get rid of it you might have some issues. it might be a great long term stock...who knows but i try to avoid stocks with low volumes.

[Inzane]

Quick question for Quicktax users:

Is it worth it to buy the $70 Platinum version that advertises the extra capital gains tax features, vs. the regular $40 version?

(I've only ever used the standard one and have never had to claim capital gains on stocks prior to this tax year.)

Thanks.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Inzane
Quick question for Quicktax users:

Is it worth it to buy the $70 Platinum version that advertises the extra capital gains tax features, vs. the regular $40 version?

(I've only ever used the standard one and have never had to claim capital gains on stocks prior to this tax year.)

Thanks.

Yes.

It is worth it.

I had a nightmare trying to track all my trades last year, and this product worked very easy and incorporated everything in to my tax return.

I will be buying it again this year for sure!

Totally worth it IMO.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
so oil is trading at 42 right now

what does that mean for HOD?

It means that if you want to make money on HOD, oil price has to go down starting from $42. The spread between current (Feb) and near month (Mar) is $6 right now. Expiry date for Feb contracts is the 20th (Obama day). I can't believe I actually thought that HOU would gain from a similar spread between Jan and Feb futures. If it were only that simple. Lesson learned.

Let's be realistic here guys, unless there is an unforeseen rally, oil should tank. What's going to drive it up? I think even Obama is realistic and will give a rather negative speech at his inauguration. The American situation is that shitty.

Like I said previously, it doesn't matter what goes on in the Middle East, OPEC cuts, etc. Short of a WW3 or an oil embargo, oil price is going to drop. We've seen how much pull the American economy has on everything. Like them or hate, the Americans make everything go.

Tuesday will be interesting. I've adjusted my stops and limits in case there is an Obama rally. I don't want to get fucked on the flip flop between HOU and HOD! HA!

[Inzane]

Thanks Shawn! :thumbsup:

[civic_rida]

hopefully its a obama rally week:poosie:

[max_boost]

^^^

What's your cost on HOU? Have you averaged down since? If there is a sustained rally and you are up or break even, consider selling. Best case scenario, I see a 4-5 day rally up to $50 for oil and it'll come crashing down! Watch for it! Unless somehow it miraculously breaks past $50 which it was unable to do the last two times. What's the underlying reason for supporting $50 oil anyway? ;)

Yes I've become increasingly negative on the American economy. I completely underestimated how dire of a situation they are in. 2009 could possibly be a terrible year that will affect everyone in one way or another. Some say it's just the tip of the iceberg and some say it's on its road to recovery. You have to do the research and make the decision for yourself. :thumbsup:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

^ I certainly hope so... I just wanna breakeven with it... Shouldn't have held it for 2 months.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
so hod should go down on monday?


It *might*

If there's an Obama rally, then yes. Personally I don't think he can rally anything. He's already stated the economy is going to get worse before it gets better. But you know how traders roll, they'll use ANY excuse to prop things up.

Set your stops people. Minimize your losses. Fluctuations on 2X ETF's are going to cost you. HOU cost me over $20K (Great way to start the new year.) :( HOD could do the same but I'm setting stops this time and waiting on the sidelines to evaluate the news feed instead of averaging down and holding. More importantly I'm banking on a downward spiral on the oil price due to the contango structure and poor outlook on the economy!

[max_boost]

Don't get me wrong on Obama, I think he's brilliant, well educated and well spoken but people have too high of expectations for him. He's not going to come in and wave a wand and then everything is going to be better. It's going to take time. Just wait until more bad news hits the airwaves. More quarterly reports (from banks, major companies) come out and you'll see how depressing everything is (lower revenues, mass layoffs etc).

I can't believe how naive I was just a short while ago thinking "oh, everything will be fine". It's been repeated over and over but this is a once in a life time economic crisis. CAll it fear mongering or whatever but this is my personal view after all my hours of reading/research in the past bit.

[civic_rida]

Is there any trading going on monday since its a holiday in the u.s.

[max_boost]

Monday, January 21
(Electronic trading and NYMEX ClearPort® are unaffected and will run on a normal schedule)

[barmanjay]

Lately I've had this urge to buy Nortel since they've dropped to basically a penny stock

thoughts? updates on their situation?

[max_boost]

Nortel is garbage. You are better off putting your money with any other large cap.

[barmanjay]

Originally posted by max_boost
Nortel is garbage. You are better off putting your money with any other large cap.

reasons?

just curious as I don't think nortel will fold.

if you buy at $0.11 and it moves to $1.11 by this time next year, is that not so bad? or even $0.50

or should one wait till they drop to $0.05, or will they fold?

[Inzane]

Originally posted by barmanjay
thoughts? updates on their situation?

Uh... filing for bankruptcy? :dunno:

[barmanjay]

bankruptcy protection - not bankruptcy

or did I hear wrong on the radio?

[max_boost]

^
If you don't know, time to start doing some reading/research. The company is garbage.

[barmanjay]

it all starts by asking questions and getting opinions ;)

[broken_legs]

So.... Oil at 42 dollars, pre markets are up.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

HOU remains unchanged. It follows the intra-day movement of the oil price. It's not affected by the roll over price i.e. $36 (Feb) to $43 (Mar).

Read this link: http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.728674/browse_thread/thread/bc181ba7edc88f90?hl=en#




Today, January 13th is the 8th business day of the month.

We roll the contract over the span of 3 days from the 7th to 9th
business days of each month. Business days are defined as any day
when
all of the NYMEX, TSX, and Foreign Exchange markets are open. We roll
25% at the close on day 7, 25% at the close on day 8, and 50% at the
close on day 9. So from the 1st to the 7th business day of each
month,
we are tracking the spot contract. After the close on Day 7, we are
tracking 75% of the spot contract and 25% of the 2nd prompt contract.
After the close on the 8th day, we are tracking 50% of the spot and
50%
of the 2nd prompt. Finally, after the close on the 9th day, we are
tracking 100% of the 2nd prompt contract and we track that contract
until it becomes the spot contract and we get to the 7th business day
in
the next month.

That means HOU/HOD has been trading off the March Futures price since Jan 15th!