Official Short-term Investments Thread

[DJ_NAV]

Also, according to a friend the plan comes out right now. 12:15MST.

[max_boost]

We are all just trying to make a buck here right?

Agree to disagree broken_legs.

:D

[DJ_NAV]

f.... HOD below 25 now!

[max_boost]

Making a comeback now!

HOD that is! WTF! haha

[DJ_NAV]

^ WOW!

[dj_honda]

WTF just happened??
I should have just sold my HOU at 8.2x :banghead:

[SilverRex]

dont play oil if you cant stomach the moves lol

I will be looking to add to my position if it can dip back to 7.50

remember what happen on the 20th? went up 4 dollars only to completely back down 3 bucks. but over all the trend was up.

it will be nice if it can slowly creep down to 41.50 because a reverse there would mean the newly formed trendline at the base of 40.xx will have give us a reverse head and shoulder.

:D

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Z_Fan]

That was quite the wild ride on OIL prices. Went up really fast, went down even faster. It was in the span of 2 and a half minutes that HOU went from peak of 8.40 down to 7.99 and back up to 8.14.

And by 3 minutes, HOU was back down to 7.88.

That's fucking crazy shit right there. :thumbsdow

I sold at $8.27 and bought back at $7.99 (hoping that is not a mistake)

[SilverRex]

^ I dont think is a mistake, worst case scenario would push oil possilby to 41 (now) or 41.50 later which I dont mind because technically it may need that type of reversal (H&S) to make the rally hold.

if everyone realizes how oil plays out, most strong rallies pretty much goes right into a heavy profit taking mode right after. it appears if oil makes a sharp 3 dollar + rally, it usually does follow heavy selling right after.

I hope it gets to 41-41.50 so I can double up

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

it shows the time beside the price. but it is all future prices not spot.

[bigbadboss101]

Delayed. Go to TD.

[SilverRex]

folks, look at how oil did on the 20th and you will see its up to this point its doing exactly the same thing so use that as your guide if you need direction

[e36bmw///]

nm

[civic_rida]

I think the stimulus package got shutdown.

[4DoorGTZ]

They're voting on it in a "few hours" (-bnn) and Obama says he's got the support for it to pass... but then it goes to Senate....

[SilverRex]

^
its going to creep to 41-41.50 before going higher I think

[civic_rida]

i think we gotta wait till tomorrow.

[Z_Fan]

You can get quotes on futures / commodities directly from NYMEX. The price is live, and if you set it up next to HOU or HOD in RBC, you will see that they react instantly to the price of OIL on the NYMEX, no delay at all.

If your NYMEX quote is delayed, you can never react fast enough to a rally...

When oil moved really quickly there, it was +.60 on the day. I decided I was gonna do a trade, and before I could even enter the data, it was +1.00 and by the time I was done it was +1.20 and this all happened in 20 seconds or so. F'n crazy.

Anyhow, OIL price has done nothing since coming down. It is hovering around $41.90 - $42.05 and I think there will be no further action for the day. I'm holding HOU and hoping for a big swing tomorrow.

[4DoorGTZ]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I'm holding HOU and hoping for a big swing tomorrow.

I'm going the opposite.... tick tock tick tock.....

[Z_Fan]

Hahah, small rally at the end of the day ... trending upwards ... and stimulus package TBA tomorrow, which my guess is will pass as Obama wouldn't put it forth knowing it would not pass...so then it will only need to be ratified by the Senate.

Even if it is all a farce, I hope OIL goes up tomorrow a couple bucks...cuz I'm really sick of losing money.

[max_boost]

^^

:werd:

Even the bear is on the HOU train, for now at least.

The house will pass it. The Senate should pass it (with revisions?)

I need a crash course on the United States government. I'm having information overload trying to understand/remember everything. :nut:

[max_boost]

The Senate Finance Committee has approved approximately $522 billion in tax cuts, incentives and investments by a vote of 14-9.

So who's in charge of approving the other $350billion? :nut: :dunno:

[civic_rida]

This would of been nice to hear a few hours ago.

[Mr_John]

Originally posted by civic_rida
This would of been nice to hear a few hours ago.

:werd:
I just finished getting my questrade account activated early this morning and was itching to get in since I've been following hou and hod for awhile now.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
This would of been nice to hear a few hours ago.

haha apparently the Senate approved it last night! but I just found the article during my google searches.

Anyway, I take it you aren't holding anything? I have 7300 shares of HOU, you want me to sell you some of mine? ;)

[max_boost]

It's so hard trying to work and trade stocks at the same time. :nut:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090128/ts_nm/us_usa_stimulus_spending


WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A key U.S. Senate panel expanded the economic stimulus package to about $887 billion on Tuesday as President Barack Obama met with Republican lawmakers in a bid to win their support despite deep skepticism.

The Senate Finance Committee approved its $522 billion portion by a vote of 14-9 with changes including a fix to insulate middle-class taxpayers from the Alternative Minimum Tax for a year. That item alone added almost $70 billion to the original $825 billion price tag of the legislative package.

The Senate Appropriations Committee, by a vote of 21-9, also approved its portion of the stimulus bill -- $365.6 billion in spending.

The passage by the two panels clears the way for the full Senate to begin debate on the bill, which the Democrats want to pass sometime next week.

[civic_rida]

Yes it got passed amongst the democrats but now the Republicans have to vote on it. Thats whats going on right now

[civic_rida]

Vote expected soon on President Obama's stimulus plan; Republicans say they'll vote no

[max_boost]

Just need TWO Republicans to pass it and we are set hehe

There's no need for them to get along or hold hands, just pass the damn thing!

This stimulus is what we need to get oil going to test $50 again. Now if OPEC comes out with some chatter about cuts, timing can't be any better. :D

Now after all the honeymoon blows over, the death march continues towards $30 oil. :whipped:

[dezmarez]

how much does everyone make on an average week from day trading on here?

don't need cash values but if you dont mind sharing that would be nice, but how about a % of what your actually making at work in a week,

i have been dipping in a bit from the sidelines but would really love to see if i could pull in an extra source of income through out the week

[Z_Fan]

I make about -$1,000.00 easily.

[max_boost]

If you go opposite against me and Z_Fan, you are guaranteed a positive return! :thumbsup: :rofl:

My 3 day return is probably around 25-30%+ :bigpimp:
My 3 week/month/year return, let's not go there. :( :cry:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Vote expected soon on President Obama's stimulus plan; Republicans say they'll vote no


Stimulous is passed.

[max_boost]

House passes stimulus bill!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by dezmarez
how much does everyone make on an average week from day trading on here?

don't need cash values but if you dont mind sharing that would be nice, but how about a % of what your actually making at work in a week,

i have been dipping in a bit from the sidelines but would really love to see if i could pull in an extra source of income through out the week

About 10%/month

Move ahead in 10-50% leaps and bounds, then lose a little, lose a little more, lose a little, lose a little more, lose a little, lose a little more.

[ballah]

WTF happened to Canadian Oil Sands (cos.un)? it s been dropping like crazy in the last week or so..

[civic_rida]

im glad i dont do this for a living id have no hair.
How much i make
I'll tell you after tomorrow.:drama:

[civic_rida]

So hou is gonna double this week?

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
So hou is gonna double this week?

Party at my house if it does. :poosie:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
So hou is gonna double this week?

:rofl:

[max_boost]

So how does that work?

No Republicans sided with Obama and 12 Democrats vote no.

[dezmarez]

ok another question
is this money your savings, or do you guys still keep money in a savings account in this money is more or less play money, or do you rely on this money for future use???

[max_boost]

Combination of all of the above.

Simply put, only gamble/invest what you are willing to lose.

My principal has always been, primary home is untouchable. I don't care if it's a 99.9% guarantee win, I still won't risk it.

I've been eating out less, shopping less, and cutting back wherever I can so I can have more money to lose in the markets. lol

[dezmarez]

ok cool thanks guys,
i'm basically saving up for a house and i have such a huge temptation to put half of it into stocks and try and earn a higher return, but i think i would be devistated if i lost the majority of it

[bigbadboss101]

I didn't follow my advice but pay debts first.

- Pay debts
- Pay yourself (savings and necessities)
- Give to God/charity if you are inclined to
- Invest wisely

I should have been mortgage and debt free but I didn't do #1, gambled blindly on a few stocks.

[Z_Fan]

The market gave me over $100,000.00 in my house. And being the nice guy that I am, I decided to give it all back to the Market.

I'm getting pretty close to returning it all. Just a few thousand more dollars to lose, and I'm done. :poosie:

[natejj]

Originally posted by dezmarez
ok cool thanks guys,
i'm basically saving up for a house and i have such a huge temptation to put half of it into stocks and try and earn a higher return, but i think i would be devistated if i lost the majority of it

Only invest what you are willing to lose.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by dezmarez
ok cool thanks guys,
i'm basically saving up for a house and i have such a huge temptation to put half of it into stocks and try and earn a higher return, but i think i would be devistated if i lost the majority of it

Yeah, NO NO NO.

I did this same thing starting about 12 years ago. BIGGEST mistake ever. Lost half my house downpayment culminating with the BreX scandal as I had most of my money in gold companies working in Borneo. :nut:

:thumbsdow

Money I could not afford to lose. You should keep your cash, buy your house when you are ready. The stock market will be ready and waiting to take your money just as soon as you are ready to give it up. So, no hurry - the market will always be there.

[RX_EVOLV]

yeh only play with only you can afford to lose!! even if you tell yourself if things go south I will sell and stop after it drops..... let says. 15%... .. you will still be amazed at how fast you can lose it all!!

of cuz when things are good you will be like... omg did I just doubled that?? but then moments like that are hard to come by in today's market, unless you have the balls of steel (like Max boost haah)

Anyway, Go HOU Go!! jumped in @ 7.56 and 7.80! I missed the selling opportunity at ~ 8.40 cuz I wasnt near a comp, oh well

[bigbadboss101]

I say for the rest of the week go Gold go!!

[DJ_NAV]

I hope gold and oil crash this week! but I would be happy with just one of those 2 happening.

[max_boost]

Most of Asia back in action now after the Holidays.

HK's Hangseng is up 700pts! :eek:
Nikkei is also up!

It'll be interesting to see how the FTSE, DAX and rest of Europe respond. If their stocks are up, I'm hopeful for NA equities to continue its rally and for oil to test $44 tomorrow hehe

[Rat Fink]

.

[RX_EVOLV]

I think the US is releasing their Q4 GDP on friday? Im guessing it will be worst than ppl have anticipated. I might try to jump in on Gold before that release

[max_boost]

Thursday:
8:30 CA Industrial Product Price (M/M) December Exp: 2.8 Prior: -2.6%
8:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index (M/M) December Exp: 10.0% Prior: -13.4%
8:30 US Durable Goods Orders December Exp: -2.0% Prior: -1.0% Revised: -1.5%
8:30 US Durables Ex Transportation December Exp: -2.6% Prior: +1.2% Revised: +0.6%
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E January 24 Exp: +578K Prior: +589K
8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E January 17 Exp: 4595K Prior: +4607K
10:00 US New Home Sales December Exp: +400K Prior: +407K
10:00 US New Home Sales (M/M) December Exp: -1.7% Prior: -2.9%
10:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Prior: -176 Bcf
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $30B 5-Year Notes

Quarter 4 Earnings to watch out for:

Thursday:
3M Company (MMM) EPS 0.93
Chubb Corporation (CB) EPS 1.52
Eli Lilly (LLY) EPS 1.05
Ford Motor Company (F) EPS -1.19
Petro-Canada (PCZ) EPS 0.89
Sony Corporation (SNE) EPS 0.83
US Airways (LCC) EPS -2.15

No idea what to expect tomorrow. :nut:

[Canmorite]

Thursday will be busy lol. Durable goods, jobless claims, new home sales...

Are those companies reporting before the open or after close?

[max_boost]

Everything is coming out really early. I might have to sell and switch to HOD!

[DJ_NAV]

I'm also playing with my money that should be saved up towards my first house. But since I will not be buying anytime soon(not withing 6-8 months), I don't mind gambling a lil bit as long as I am up.

[natejj]

What do you guys use to track the price of Gold/Oil futures? I use Yahoo futures... do you guys know of anything that Google has, because I love google finance.

[SilverRex]

Thursday,

ok so oil is flirting near the low of yesterday touching off 40.80s, now at 41.27 as I write this.

Its critical that oil needs to get back above 41.35 quickly, the moment it stays below this level for too long could send oil suddenly on a course to 39

just when I thought 41 would be the bottom here (and so far it can still be) it will be interesting if the market wants the march oil to test the bottom at 39.08.

it will be fine I'll just add to my position if hou dips to about 6.80
still, as a technical guy the chart does look to repeat what happen on the 20th after shooting up 3+ dollars and all gains quickly evaporated, skewed downward but that became a buying opportunity that set up the next couple of days.

but to be safer, I say oil needs to climb above 41.60 then that would suggest the 40.80-41 bottom continues to hold valid.

as for gold, god got down to 874 pretty much inline with what I initially predicted breaking the 896 = towards 870, but since it broken an uptrendline I continue to favor it bearishly unless it cross over 890. gold is now back to 884 and what is holding it up is the 1 hour 200 day. Could it repeat what it did on the 22nd? where it can form a double bottom at 830 only to make a new high which led to a eventual collasp to 803. I hope so, gold could find some support around the 870 area only to rally back to 920-930 then fall back to earth to around 850.

the original entry point of 770 is looking dimmer each day, therefore now I would suggest its looking more like 800 is ultimate low. It could be nice to see gold make a double bottom at 800 before another major run.

short term trading range will be 870-930, medium term will be 920-850 which means I will have one position at 850 and one position at 800.

Note: going forward 850 will be the ultimate bottom. even if gold prices were to shoot up to 2200-2400 it is the inflation adjusted top of the 1980s of price at 850,

there fore no shame in going long term here.

EDIT: oil now at 40.90 if it breaks the 40.60 low of yesterday this will be bad it may look like 39 will be in the works

[Rat Fink]

.

[LBG]

Hey SilverRex,

Just wondering where are you finding these numbers? 40.80/4.60.... that would be nice to know. Thanks! kinda new to all this.. =)

[natejj]

I use http://finance.yahoo.com/futures

Just sit there and hit refresh and you can watch oil go up and down, not sure what Rex uses.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by LBG
Hey SilverRex,

Just wondering where are you finding these numbers? 40.80/4.60.... that would be nice to know. Thanks! kinda new to all this.. =)

I use netdania and nymex, but so far the stock quotes from TD gets a better reaction to the oil price that much quicker.

anyhow oil touched 40.40 looks like a new low means oil is going to try and test 39 today

order at 6.80 here we come

[eljefe]

I use TD but where on the webBroker do you find oil future pricing?

[Z_Fan]

Well, I've already lost my $1,000.00 for the day. So I'm good!

And it's only 7:32 AM.

[max_boost]

Got stopped out of my HOU at $7.50

Right back into HOD at $28.00

I gave this Obama stimulus too much credit. Might get burned, might get not but if it's off to this bad of a run and all those stats waiting to come out. Oh shit. :drool:

[natejj]

Still waiting to sell my HOD.... can't decide when though.... I really need to pick a number.

Going to try to get 28.75 today for my HOD. Then back to HOU!

[Z_Fan]

This is why I don't like to hold overnight.

Fawk.

I'm going to hold this time. Not selling at a loss. Hopefully OIL will turn around and push up to the higher 40's soon.:dunno:

[max_boost]

We should be in to the $30's by today and tomorrow at $37 hehe

GDP numbers being released tomorrow in addition to these companies releasing earnings.


Friday:
ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) EPS 1.47
Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (HMC) EPS N/A
Honeywell (HON) EPS 0.97
Procter & Gamble Company (PG) EPS 1.58


Exxon alone is going to rattle the markets as they weigh 6% on the S&P500.

I'm also ready to sell my HOD in case there is some freak :bullshit: rally like last week but the bear is back!

[SilverRex]

key area is 41.60, there will, be rejection here and unless oil can find its way above this, its currently bearish with a short term target to 39

that is why I have 3 orders, one at 41, 39 and 37 since wed morning.

my expecation is 39 dollar but you just cant tell with the volaility in the market right now which leve will hold.

[bigbadboss101]

I'm ready to sell my HOD. Sold my HGU and K. IT's now going up! :-)

[max_boost]

Yep. It's extremely volatile right now.

I can't buy HOU anymore because I JUST DON'T BELIEVE IN BULLISH OIL. I'm only going to hold HOD and day trade that from now on until the signs of a recovering economy are evident. I'll even hold out of these mini fake oil rallies because BAM, reality strikes again!

I gave this stimulus plan way too much credit. This shit isn't going to fucking work. lol :facepalm:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

why?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

didn't see a rally... but maybe u did...
sold hod at 28, going to buy it at 27.5 if it hits it.

[eljefe]

Have a look at the DOW chart- It reversed its downward trend and cut a third of its losses in the 10:30 - 11:00 EST time slot. Oil bumped in that time frame as well.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
didn't see a rally... but maybe u did...
sold hod at 28, going to buy it at 27.5 if it hits it.

Mission accomplished! :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

so oil manage to get above 41.60 which means the 41 bottom is again holding :)

now on ward to test 42-42.50

[civic_rida]

poor maxboost
hopefully dj nav didnt buy hod at 27.50

[DJ_NAV]

i did buy hod at 27.3... got close to selling it at 27.7

[dj_honda]

GDP data is already out I think....heard a guy on bnn saying it was -4 or -5%

[max_boost]

I'm down 2% but whatever.

I'm waiting for tomorrow, Exxon Mobil and Q4 GDP.

www.economicnews.ca



Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Moves Lower in January

Expect Home Prices to Keep Falling as New Sales Hit All-Time Low

U.S. Natural Gas Inventories Fall But Remain in Surplus

U.S. New Home Sales Plunge 14.7% in December to Slowest Pace on Record

U.S. Jobless Claims Signal Mass Firings in Economy

Extremely Weak Q4 GDP Expected as U.S. Durable Goods Drop off Cliff

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall in December for Third Consecutive Month

U.S. Continuing Claims (EI) Reach New All-Time High

U.S. Nearly 600K Initial Jobless Claims Expected in Weekly Report

Even with the stimulus plan, it only gives the market some hope but the economy is deteriorating at a quicker pace than that thing can be enacted anyway. I gave that stimulus bill wayyyy too much respect. :rofl:

[SilverRex]

looks like there is a downward channel forming with the 3 recent lows and the 43 peak, I would say price will most likely try to get to the upper band around 42.50-43 before selling off again.

bought another position at 7.55 around 41.30 for a run up to 42.50 and take profit around 8 bucks

:)

[RX_EVOLV]

sold HOU today at a lost of $0.01/share + commission and bought some HGU this morning and buying more now. I think tmr the US is going to be in the shit and gold is going to up. Definitly going to sell it tmr, dont want to be holding anything over the weekend

[max_boost]

Waiting for a pullback on Gold so I can jump into HGU! lol

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by RX_EVOLV
sold HOU today at a lost of $0.01/share + commission and bought some HGU this morning and buying more now. I think tmr the US is going to be in the shit and gold is going to up. Definitly going to sell it tmr, dont want to be holding anything over the weekend

hmm I think gold stock is topping out, it couldnt break over the 200 day (HUI) I see gold stock falling back down and the recent gold high is probablly a fake breakout, meaning gold around 910-920 will meet heavy selling back to 870

I am waiting for 850 and 800 and 11.50 and 10.50 for silver spot

[RX_EVOLV]

yeh I dont think Gold can hold up this price for too long, but I think all the news tmr is going to give it a little push before it comes back down again. I definitly want to sell early tmr morning and .. depends if it falls back or how hard it falls, I might grab some HGD.

flip flip flip

[DJ_NAV]

I need to gold to tank one more time. Just till HGD hits 12.5. Then it can go up all it wants.

[max_boost]

^

It will.

Overall, markets are down today. Asia and Europe will be down too.

The only thing I have is HOD and the oil price was :zzz:

Not sure what to make of it, a lot of resistance for oil and it's not really moving right now.

I'm hoping the Q4 GDP numbers are worse than predicted (if that's possible) and it'll send it tumbling to $39 so I can cash out of my HOD for the weekend.

Might take a break from trading oil and move my focus on to shorting Gold before going long. Once the stimulus is ratified by the Senate, that should send the markets flying up again and could be the opportunity for Gold to pull back for my entry point.

Simply put, you don't print trillions of dollars without any repercussions.

[SilverRex]

Y

yes and that is why gold will eventually hit the 1980 inflation adjust high of 2200-2300 dollar an ounce, silver will be between 30-50 dollars

[max_boost]

^

haha

Yeah I'm well aware of that possibility but rather hard to believe it could get that high.

I'm trying to find how Horizon BetaPro tracks the COMEX gold price? When does it rollover?

For example, HOU/HOD, tracks the near month (say April) on the 10th business day of the month (February).

I guess it doesn't really matter if we see $2000 gold, any entry point from here on out is going to be insane returns.

ABX goes from $25 to $45 as gold goes from $800 to $900.

So ABX will be trading at roughly:

$100 at $1200 gold

$160 at $1500 gold

$260 at $2000 gold

I mean seriously, that's fantastic and ridiculous.
:rofl:

What the hell is that going to do to our economy if inflation runs wild like that? Home prices? 20% High interest rates?

:nut: :dunno:

[Inzane]

Choo-choo.....

I hopped on board the HOU train this morning at 7.50. :)

[SilverRex]

Friday

ok lets look at oil today.

so oil is doing very well around the 41 dollar mark and the longer it stays around here the stronger it means it has bottomed out short term.

for oil bears, it needs to break below 41 again and start moving towards 39.08 (which will be the next support area)

for oil bulls, it needs to get back above 42 (more importantly 42.50) and if it does, then upward target will be towards 44.50-45 area. And of course if it does get there I would take profit and wait for a pull back

gold, after hitting near 870, now its in the upper range as I saw this coming now at around 919 but it had hit 926 high, now this is scary because technically it looks like it broke the last down trendline and this is bullish because that means we will see over 1000 soon. Honestly I dont want it to break just yet, I still want it to come back down so I am hoping the 920-930 area will hold and push gold prices down towards the 850 area. My perfect entry lies one at 850 next at 800

and silver now hit 12.50s remember when it was near 10 dollars and I say it was a great buy :) haha if you had bought silver spot you would have made about 10x with a tight stop oh the power of margin.

too bad silver didnt trigger my entry at 11.50, it only dip to 11.64 dam. Oh well i am a patient man and so too I will wait



EDIT: oil now at 42.89 its a technical break on its way towards 44.50-45 I knew it haha it formed another W just like on the 20th, the only thing that was different was I didnt know it had to put in a lower low at 40.18 before setting the pattern up. Im glad I got another position in at 41.00 :)

let see oil at 44.50-45 HOU will be between 8.70-8.95

[max_boost]

haha WTF man.

US GDP #'s better than expected? Fuck that!:bullshit:

[SilverRex]

well I can care less about how good or bad of a shape the US economy is in, do you know why? because it will work itself technically to reflect such as breaking a trendline or support. Therefore technically usually works other than the odd day when strange shit happens.

anyways im feeling good that the 41 level held strongly which was the 50% retracement from 48 to 33, therefore it will not make another run towards the new trendline and 50 day which is at around 47

for today price is testing the down ward channel breakout at 42.50 and even can touch 42, but the 42-42.50 area should hold well since was quite the resistance for almost 3 days and it is also the 200 day 1 hour EMA, therefore I say range going forward is 42-45 with medium picture going for 47

[aklalani]

go HOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU