Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

one thing I was telling myself and to someone who was interested to know how does oil and gold play itself out.

imagine if china wants to buy a trillion ounce of gold (not that I know they will buy that much but any purchase from china will be huge) or if some country, or middle east or who ever believes that the oil price at around 40 is a good price.

No one will be stupid enough to purchase everything all at once, because it will push the price higher and higher to the point that it no longer becomes attractive.

hence, the way to do is to spread out the order. So that when price begins to move higher, they stop buying or storing crude. then price without its buying anchor will start deflat itself.

It explains how oil is moving in a range between 40-50, so that tells me, 40 oil is cheap and 50 is too high for who ever is buying them.

same with gold, that is why you see gold moves 70-120 bucks higher than falls 50-70 dollars then moves higher again.

[ExtraSlow]

Silver, I read an article recently that a lot of oil is being bought and put into tankers as a kind of floating storage. These tankers aren't heading directly to port to offload, thier owners are having them stay at anchor.
I think you are correct, at $40, people can afford to speculate and buy extra oil even if they don't have somewhere to sell it yet.
This also means that once the price does start a sustained upswing, it will hve to be quite gentle as all this extra "floating storage" is unloaded.
Floating storage article 1 (http://www.247wallst.com/2009/01/ships-as-floati.html)
Floating storage easing - Oil bottoming out? (http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/01/28/oil-prices-have-they-bottomed-out-a-hint-on-the-seas/)

[max_boost]

Come on HOD!

Prove your daddy right and make him proud of you for not giving up on you this morning!! haha

[bigbadboss101]

I'm with you on HOD today. Gold stocks going down though. Seem to trade opposite of my sentiments those gold stocks.

[max_boost]

I just need to cash in once on low $30's oil before the roll over and then I'm moving EVERYTHING to Gold for the run up to $1500 this year! :bigpimp:

[bigbadboss101]

max with the amount you are investing/trading a 1-2% move is quite nice every day or two.

[SilverRex]

gold after hitting double top at 925-026 has just crashed down to 913 so looking good I hope this sets up a run towards 850


but oil, man is it volatile, the break above 42 was bullish but now its testing below 41 and at 41.50 its ify.

this is more like 51% oil bull and 49% gold bears, hence that volatility.

I have two position averaging around 41.50, if it breaks below 41 I will unwind half for a possibility for 39 oil entry.

but as long as 41+ holds, it still looks good for a run up to 45 short term and 47 longer term

[civic_rida]

I dont think your gonna be seeing 30 dollar oil or 1500 gold.

[RX_EVOLV]

sold my HGU bright and early this morning.. now contemplating if i should get in on HOU~ im thinking it might go up a litle bit this afternoon but i dont want to be holding it over the weekend

[natejj]

Well HOD, It's been fun... out at 27.25.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I dont think your gonna be seeing 30 dollar oil or 1500 gold.

what reasons do you have that gold will not hit 1500?

maybe one reason and that is price manipulation?

but I can tell you a zillion reason why it will,

inflation?
safe haven?
collaspe of US dollar?
trillions of increased money supply?
China adding to their gold reserve?
revisiting 1980 adjusted high of 2400 dollars/ounce?
we are in a bull market and gold after cracking 870 has just put in a reversal head and shoulder and that is huge signal that gold is at the beginning stage of another big run.

dont forget in 1980 china was still in a slump and gold price still went nuts. And back in 1980, price surge on speculation and fear of inflation but today, hard evidence shows the money supply will have a much bigger impact than it did back then.

mind you 2400 is only a conservative number. a typical short bull run could be at least 8 year, and we are in the 8th year. So it will at least reach 1400-1600 even if gold was a hoax. but a long bull run could be 16-17 years and if gold should hit its exploside side potential, it can go up to 6000 dollar and ounce simply the last bull run had gold went from 35 to 850 (25x) so 25x from the run started back in 2001 will mean 250 to 6250

The only draw back, no one knows when and how soon or later it will achieve these numbers.but we will get there eventually. Dont think of a second that gold is finished. But in the midst of these historical prices, gold is without a doubt going to run into a lot of resistance. Therefore be prepare to watch it go up just as fast as it goes down. For all I know gold could reach 2300 and go into hyper sleep like it did in the 1980-1990 and slowly sell off back to 850, and when we hit another crisis (perhaps hyper inflation?) then it may once gain climb to the eventual 6250 / ounce.

so if your confused and just couldnt see where the upper price will be at 1600? 2400? 6000? then rest assure that the 800-900 price gold of today will be the ultimate bottom for many years to come. Just like when price settle down to 250-300 for so many years, I bet some will say it will go back to 35 dollars lol but it didnt.

[civic_rida]

I just thought gold was going up cause of the weak u.s. economy.
I was also watching a show on bnn and the ceo of an investment company was sayin now isnt the time to buy gold.

[Z_Fan]

OIL rallying right now. Up we go.

[civic_rida]

not enough volume for a long enough rally.

[Z_Fan]

I wasn't talking about Oilexco...if that's what you meant...

OIL went from +.4 to +1.02 in a matter of a minute.

[civic_rida]

im talking about hou

[SilverRex]

with gold stock unable to push to new heights even with gold prices going higher now 928, I am going to say gold price will collaspe

gold stock usually makes a move before gold price does.

so watch for it.

i will be quite happy to see 850 and 800 gold again

[bigbadboss101]

oil prices of late has been going in the plus and minus interday. Chance to make a couple bucks until the volatility goes away. Pretty crazy.

[bigbadboss101]

So SR I should sell my HGU stock for $150 profit before end of day?

[SJW]

Some stocks im thinking of for next week

SLB
PHX.UN
NAE.UN
CRP
ARG
CET.UN

[max_boost]

:zzz:
I'm selling my HOD end of the day regardless what happens.

SilverRex, I noticed that too. Gold stocks aren't following the price. Would love for a pullback so I can get in there.

I might be wrong about oil not testing $30's again, I might be wrong about a lot of things but I know for FACT that Gold is where it's at for 2009! :thumbsup:

[ExtraSlow]

I have several buddies working at NAE.UN. I also know one of the VPs. The people that I know there are very sharp, and should be able to produce above average operating results. Now it's tough to say if that will translate into above average investment results or not.
NAL makes up ground (http://www.theenergynews.com/news/cp_article.php?storyid=4115)

I also very much like AET.UN and I am a holder of them. A top notch team of executives and a good land position in the BC Montney areas.

[DJ_NAV]

Boost, how high will HOD get today? Any aim set in mind?

[civic_rida]

27.10

[DJ_NAV]

I hope we see some sort of rally here to end the week.

[Z_Fan]

Well, I made a good choice on selling HOU when it was near $8 but then my impatience got the better of me and I bought back in the 7.8x's when I could have easily waited another few minutes and got in the 7.6x's.

Oh well, I'll probably hold my shares of HOU over the weekend. I'm still looking for $44-$45 OIL in the next week. I hope.

[DJ_NAV]

i can't believe my order for hou to sell at 8.1 didnt go through.

[civic_rida]

Oil settles up 24 cents at $41.68 a barrel amid refinery labor concerns in the U.S. and U.K. More soon.


This is my hope for 45 dollar oil

[dj_honda]

looks like im gonna hold hou over the weekend. stupid shit won't move.

i'm no expert on the subject....but i cant see gold hitting 1500. it wont move that high until the deflationary period is over, and imo that won't happen this year.

[RX_EVOLV]

jumped on HGD earlier today at $9.14

on the fence w/ HOU.....

[DJ_NAV]

good call on HGD.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by dj_honda
looks like im gonna hold hou over the weekend. stupid shit won't move.

i'm no expert on the subject....but i cant see gold hitting 1500. it wont move that high until the deflationary period is over, and imo that won't happen this year.

we aint in a deflationary enviorment as most may have suggest. its pure supply and demand, if you understand the true definition of deflation you will understand that deflation directly ties into the monetary system, so you only get it if there is a decrease in money supply but right now the opposite is happening.

Sure you ask all the inflationary indicators are down, well the current inflation indicators (such as the CPI) are nothing but the government's way to surpress the media from knowing the truth. Year after year, the moeny supply is growly, and increased money supply will spawn inflation.

This set back of financial mess is only temporary, it aint a depression, its only a deep recession. The US is fixing a bubble with another bubble,

sure gold does not have to hit 1500 this year, since the gold trade agreement (countries forcing to sell a certain amount of gold each year) is coming to an end this coming september. When major gold sale stops, you know what that means.

I would like to see gold come down first and test the 850 support a few more times (enough time for me to load up) then I can careless if it hits 1500 this year or next year, because it wont be very long when 850 will be a bottom of the decade.

[max_boost]

Well, that's it for me this week.

Sold out of everything!

Here's my sentiments, the correction from $48 to $42 was due but it's been unable to break lower than $40 despite all these headlines.

- Increasing unemployment numbers
- Home values dropping to new lows
- New home starts at new lows
- 6 million barrel crude surplus
- Poor Q4 numbers
- Poor GDP numbers
- DJI dropping

I hate to say this but perhaps this is the bottom for crude oil. Despite that, I'm still not bullish on crude because of the contango and economic situation. I'll probably be back into HOD to make some quick flips next week but I'll also be looking towards shorting gold and the indexes. IMO gold is due for a pullback and the markets will still get pounded but why oil is so resilient? I have no clue. Also have to be careful as the Senate should ratify the $800billion stimulus next week so it remains to be seen which way that drives the markets.

I'm up about 13% for this week. Have to take it 1 week at a time haha

Have a great weekend everyone.

[civic_rida]

suprised your up.

[max_boost]

1 week at a time. ;)

If you count the week before, then I'm break even.

If you count the week before that etc. then let's just not go there. haha

[Z_Fan]

^ LOL

All together is all that matters. I think I'm down $52,000.00+

Maybe more. I lost track really.

[max_boost]

^^

Why do you have to ruin it like that?

hahaha

Balance starting Monday less balance ending Friday = +13%

If I count the past 3 years, I would say somewhere between minus $60-$70k

As Mark Mcguire said, "I'm not here to discuss the past, I'm here to be positive about the future". :rofl:

Anyway, anytime I think I about how much money I've lost on stocks, I'm thankful that I bought my house in 05 so I'm up nicely on that but as we all know, even property value is still slowly eroding away. :eek: :facepalm:

[civic_rida]

but then you see the price that your selling the slk55 for and you kick yourself again.

[bigbadboss101]

The past is the past. No should have, could have etc etc, but rather I can, I will, we can, we will etc :-)

My attempt at being a motivational speaker :thumbsup:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
but then you see the price that your selling the slk55 for and you kick yourself again.

haha you can't count the cost of cars, mods, and depreciation. In that case, minus another $100k over the years. :rofl:

I might just end up keep the SLK, if not, there's another AMG I've been looking at hehe

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Well, I made a good choice on selling HOU when it was near $8 but then my impatience got the better of me and I bought back in the 7.8x's when I could have easily waited another few minutes and got in the 7.6x's.

Oh well, I'll probably hold my shares of HOU over the weekend. I'm still looking for $44-$45 OIL in the next week. I hope.

You know, you'd probably make more money if you held your HOU and HOD for 1-2 weeks at a time instead of 1-2 hours. :rofl:

[redsrt4]

Originally posted by SJW
Some stocks im thinking of for next week

SLB
PHX.UN
NAE.UN
CRP
ARG
CET.UN we're planning to get PHX.UN and sell the HOU

[Z_Fan]

I have shares that I am holding (that I have been holding for a couple days because I don't want to take a loss)

So the shares I was speaking about was just the 2000 shares I bought today for fun to see if I could turn around quickly. Which I did. But then I jumped on the FAILtrain again and bought back too soon. :dunno:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
max with the amount you are investing/trading a 1-2% move is quite nice every day or two.

Missed this post.

You are exactly right. I've been trying to hit it out of the ball park or striking out recently.

That's why I'm moving my focus away from HOU/HOD. The volatility is starting to get to me and I'm unable to catch it with enough consistency so it's just costing me. There are too many elements pulling the oil price one way or another. OPEC, economy, technical stuff, stock markets, sometimes it doesn't even affect it! WTF!

I'm not saying I can predict the general markets any better but trying to grasp which way oil is moving is beyond me. That's not to say if oil all of a sudden bounces up to $45-50, you know I'll be on the HOD train immediately haha

Instead I'm turning my attention towards the indexes, S&P500, S&P/TSX60, Financial, NASDAQ, Gold etc. to try to pick up the small % gains which bigbadboss101 already said, would be quite nice.

The stimulus is the next big thing right now and so far the main issue is how it doesn't nearly do enough for the housing and financial sector. Without those two issues stabilized, I just can't see the economy progressing forward. Changes can be made to the stimulus but this one is going to pass and Obama has no choice but to own it. I don't think it's going to have the positive affect everyone is hoping as the economy is deteriorating at a quicker rate with or without it.

I look into the crystal ball and see the second wave of the stock market meltdown. 6000-7000 for both the DJIA and TSX!



:drama:

[civic_rida]

I invested in some local oil companies for a long term goal cause we all know oil will eventually go up and right now everything is at a discount rate.

[KRZY403]

anyone want to offer any advice on Suncor's stock right now? im thinking of buying

[anschutz_92]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I invested in some local oil companies for a long term goal cause we all know oil will eventually go up and right now everything is at a discount rate.

... that is if they don't go under from $30-40 oil and lack of available financing over the next 12-24 months.

[civic_rida]

yup gotta have some risk .

[max_boost]

There's no reason for anything to look up in the short term but if you can pick your spots there is some money to be made. We all know how difficult that is though :rofl:

However, if you have a long term approach to things and you are buying a large cap, there's not a lot to worry about. It will bounce back. Just take a look at some of the major players in oil/gas ECA, CNQ, HSE, SU etc. A lot of them have been trading sideways for the past few months. You would think that is the bottom. With that said, you don't have to rush into it right away and can always wait for another pull back before committing.

The markets are under a lot of pressure right now. The only thing that can give it some reason to rally is the stimulus and talks about the bad bank removing toxic assets from balance sheets. The news won't be getting any better and that's what is going to prevent the stock market from breaking out. It just can't! Any rally is limited and will come crashing right back down.

The death quarter continues..........:devil:

A link to the reports lying ahead of this week
http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/article/2/223374/

[SilverRex]

Let see,

oil currently at around 40.80 after touching 40.01 eariler, I just couldnt believe how undecided oil is, it keeps breaking the right price to move higher only to get shot down beyond 43 and creates a newer low which is now 40, it really does seem the channel that targets the 39 dollar area really wants to come to being.

Really the only thing you can count on now is watching it play out day by day. Oil needs to get back above 41.15 in order to regain its 41 area footing and make another crack above 42. other wise rejection at 41 could indicate (finally after a week) that we may see 39

And if you believe in oil being range bound between 40-50, then you know what that means.

And gold came down as I saw this, its over bought and I can only guess and hope the 928 high last week is a false breakout. But now it had temporary bounced off 903 twice making it a short term double bottom, it will be very very important for price to remain below 920 because if price remains above it, then the breakout will become more and more valid to the point massive moves may suddenly kick in. (which I dont want)

but if the breakout is false, then a break below 900 will target 890 and breaking below 890 (200 day on the 1 hr) is key to see 870 again.

My order at 850 and a big one at 800 remains unchanged.

[Z_Fan]

I see oil low at 39.83 and current at 40.31.

So, it could be a bad day for me. :poosie:

[SilverRex]

^

im placing an order at 39 which translate to hou around 6.7-6.8 why? because 39 oil is the last retracement from its 48 peak to 33 low. which means if there was ANY rally at all in this recent run off its low, then the retracement levels should provide good support.

of course below 39 is unchart territory, meaning, support can vary towards 37, 35, 33 or even 30

Its amazing how the news impact oil prices lately, it seems what was bad for oil prices actually turns it bullish and what was good news turns it down, for example, the talk about the oil worker strike lol :rofl:

[SilverRex]

so my order at 39 hasnt kicked in, which is nice, as oil is climbing back and trying to crack 41 again, I wouldnt mind that either. I hope it can get back above it to put the short term picture back to 42-43 area :)_ go oil go

[max_boost]

I'm not buying into oil until it rallies up so I can jump on HOD for it's imminent downfall :D

This week for me, looking towards the indexes. Just took a position in HSD and HXD. Just have to be a bit patient as the markets can rally any time which gives me an opportunity to increase my holdings. Any rally will be temporary as the second wave of the market downturn is coming.

With the indexes, you don't have to worry about contango, rollover etc. Oil has been acting really funny in the past week. You just don't know what news is going to rally or crush it. The volatile swings are too much so I'll play it safe for now.

SilverRex, thoughts on the affect a plunging stock market will have on gold and oil price? I was going to buy some HBD but just realized that a falling DJIA and TSX might cause investors to rush towards commodities as a haven.

Now is it possible for the gold price to remain high but gold stocks to be dragged lower because of a market meltdown? No stocks are immune when a sell off is triggered.

Anyway, I'm still hoping for a pullback in gold prices to the $850 area before I commit.

[SilverRex]

^

I think initially (pending when Obama drops the stim pack) the temp rally should push gold lower and I hope this is the catalyst to force gold back to 850 or even 800 depending how heavy the sell off is, but once people realize we are still in a bear market, then gold will slowly climb back up again.

This mean, any rally in the market will impact gold prices but in the long term gold will find its way higher, and higher and higher.

So my trading stategy in 2009 will call for buying any significant dips in gold and silver.

aside from that, again im no crystal ball, but oil is looking like it is indeed range bound between 39-48, it started out 33-50, then 39-48 and I think next up will be 40-47, notice how its getting smaller and smaller, I believe there will be an upwide break eventually, but for now, price will flat out around 40-41, then make a move towards 47 only hitting another sell off milestone like it did when it first got to 48.50, but once it breaks over this barrier, the range could suddenly be 50-60 or even 50-70 I only see oil at 70 if DOW can breakout of 9000 and onto 10k,

the big question is, will the sell off happen now? pushing DOW to 6500 (I think this will be the ultimate bottom, its also the 1998 and 2003 bottom) or the stim pack will rally DOW to 10k hitting its 200 day then sell off from 10k to 6500?

thats the two scenario I am waiting for

[RX_EVOLV]

w00t sold my $9.14 HGD from Friday @ $9.66... time to camp for a deal again

[SilverRex]

gold looking good, the moment it breaks under 900 will be sweet because (to me) that means the 930 area held, and the breakout is false, then gold will target 890, then 870 and finally 850 if all goes well.

also if you look at gold's run in the last 3 months, there is a pattern, going up 120+ dollars and dropping 70.

hopefully I get my wish at 850, it would be a dream come true if it can dip back to 800 because that means silver will most likely get back to the 10s. I Want to get back in under 11 so bad.

and oil continues to find support around 41 with this I am still calling oil to go from 39 to 47, then from 47 to 43 then 43 to 55, then 55 to 50 then 50 to 60

:nut: yeah im crazy

[RX_EVOLV]

damnit and it jumps after i sold...of cuz..grr

[max_boost]

Also jumped into HGD and HBD earlier today, small gains.

So right now I am holding

HGD
HBD
HXD
HSD

Yeah I'm looking for a market meltdown. :devil:

[SilverRex]

i duno when oil will break above 43 and stay there, but just like on friday, I see oil will find its way from 41 to 42.50, that is still from 7.50 to 8.00 dollars HOU if anyone wants to flip a quick coin

oh and gold now at 905 looking good, the moment it breaks below 903-900 will signal a reverse head and shoulder hopefully this is the top i have been waiting for since 2 weeks ago. 850 here we come

[civic_rida]

wow mad sell off of hou . What is going on.

[SilverRex]

someone or some force just wants to get to 39 lol

order at 6.75 HOU

[civic_rida]

dont you have some shares of hou above 7 though?

[SilverRex]

^

yup my strategy since monday of last week did not change. I have orders at 41, 39 and 37

so far order at 41 kicked in, and 39 still a dollar away (hou is at around 6.75)

[civic_rida]

wow oil is gonna break into the 30's

[max_boost]

^

Yeah it just might close under $40 today or bounce back to par. Who knows! Oil is completely unpredictable right now. I had to get out because I couldn't take the crazy swings :nut:

[natejj]

Into HOU at 7.30

[civic_rida]

what a bad day on the markets

[max_boost]

^^

What energy stocks did you buy into?

[civic_rida]

me ?

[civic_rida]

pembina pipeline

and

pennwest

[max_boost]

Saw this quote in Xtrema's sig


Only the paranoid survive

How appropriate given our current economic times.

Now here's some more good reading material. There's enough reading material here to last you a long long long time haha

Fear mongering or just keeping it real?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Enjoy!

[DJ_NAV]

Tax related question for traders.... At what point are you considered a day trader??? Was reading somewhere that people who trade often may be taxed at the normal level and their earnings may be exempt from being qualified as capital gains/losses. Anyone have any idea how they determine this?

[bigbadboss101]

Yes, I don't know at what point but last year instead of incurring capital loss I ended up with income loss.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Yes, I don't know at what point but last year instead of incurring capital loss I ended up with income loss.

Does that mean that you can claim your income loss against your income and pay less income tax from your normal job????


This would be sweet!

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Does that mean that you can claim your income loss against your income and pay less income tax from your normal job????


This would be sweet!

Yup, ask an accountant. My accountant asked me about how I trade and said the fact I sell and buy the same things over and over made it a loss claimed against my income. You can check into it in regards to what conditions there might be.

[natejj]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101


Yup, ask an accountant. My accountant asked me about how I trade and said the fact I sell and buy the same things over and over made it a loss claimed against my income. You can check into it in regards to what conditions there might be.


I think you are wrong.

For example.

I took a capital loss of 3000 last year. I did not get to claim 3000 more of my income tax free. The lady who did my taxes gave me a reciept for my loss, so any year in the future I have a capital gain, I get to include that reciept and it will count against my capital gain. If I lost 50k this year, and my annual salary was 50k, I would still have to pay taxes like a normal person.

[SilverRex]

Tuesday

let see, so after oil closing below 41 yesterday, price remains weak going into today's action which suggest (similar to previous few days) oil will only gain momentum over 41 otherwise look for it to tread lower to 39-39.50 to find support

In otherwards oil is in a very tight trading range of 39-43


as for gold, its nice that it rejected 930 as most would have seen, now its important for it to hold under 910-911 area in order to push lower once again, the 894 support in the morning was merely bouncing off its 1 hour trendline, these trendline always hold very well on an uptrend momentum, thus this will be the 1st barrier to break, then its the 200 day at 889, until it breaks this will we see 870 or potentially 850, but if gold does get back above 910 and remain there, then gold may either want to test 928-930 again or a seriously break in the works.

Since I want my 850 entry, having gold under 910 will give me a sight of relief

happy trading

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by natejj



I think you are wrong.

For example.

I took a capital loss of 3000 last year. I did not get to claim 3000 more of my income tax free. The lady who did my taxes gave me a reciept for my loss, so any year in the future I have a capital gain, I get to include that reciept and it will count against my capital gain. If I lost 50k this year, and my annual salary was 50k, I would still have to pay taxes like a normal person.

Google business investment loss. Some good reads there.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by natejj



I think you are wrong.

For example.

I took a capital loss of 3000 last year. I did not get to claim 3000 more of my income tax free. The lady who did my taxes gave me a reciept for my loss, so any year in the future I have a capital gain, I get to include that reciept and it will count against my capital gain. If I lost 50k this year, and my annual salary was 50k, I would still have to pay taxes like a normal person.

You can only count capital losses against capital gains, not personal income.

Bigbadboss, how are you claiming it against your income? Unless I'm not getting something here...

[civic_rida]

Hou isnt going anywhere

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

Max.. what news coming out today? anything interesting?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Canmorite


You can only count capital losses against capital gains, not personal income.

Bigbadboss, how are you claiming it against your income? Unless I'm not getting something here...


It sounds to me like he was saying that when you are considered a Day Trader, your investment income is no longer taxed as capital gains and is taxed as income..

Soooooo I think what he was saying was that if you lose money, that means you can claim a loss against other income but not capital gains. I think that would be the tits to sell your losers at a loss at the end of the year and then get a big write off on your personal income tax.

Someone confirm this please!

[ExtraSlow]

Yeah, but isn't income taxed at a higher rate than capital gains? So in good years, you are getting screwed.

[Canmorite]

With income, all of your 'gains' are taxed at your marginal rate. With capital gains, only 50% of your gains are taxed at your marginal rate...

[DJ_NAV]

I think all you guys understood my question wrong. I know the difference between business tax rate and capital gainst tax rate. However, my question is this:At what point are you considered to be a "day trader" by CRA? If you are not a day trader then you are dealing with capital gains, but if you are a day trader you will be paying the normal personal tax rate.

[Canmorite]

I believe it's a certain amount of trades per week/quarter, or where most of your income is derived. Not sure on percentages though.

[natejj]

Originally posted by Canmorite


You can only count capital losses against capital gains, not personal income.

Bigbadboss, how are you claiming it against your income? Unless I'm not getting something here...

Thats... exactly the point I was trying to make, guess it didn't come out clearly.

[bigbadboss101]

Best to talk to a professional. My accountant works at a company that also provide investment ideas, personal finance, tax savings seminars etc. Some of his clients are in the high net worth areas and some are normal guys like me.

At what point can one say it's capital gain vs business gain, I do not know. I am a self-proprietor so what I earn goes toward my business. If you are an employee, I do not know investment lost would be classified as business gain/loss since you are not running a business.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Best to talk to a professional. My accountant works at a company that also provide investment ideas, personal finance, tax savings seminars etc. Some of his clients are in the high net worth areas and some are normal guys like me.

At what point can one say it's capital gain vs business gain, I do not know. I am a self-proprietor so what I earn goes toward my business. If you are an employee, I do not know investment lost would be classified as business gain/loss since you are not running a business.

Even as a self-prop you can incorporate and claim expenses like internet, software, computers, etc. How you can deduct capital losses against your income is new to me. I think the categories are seperate.

[SilverRex]

YES!!

Gold is coming down just the way I like it. the 910 I mention before the market opened was key, and I shorted at 910 and made some coin.

its currently (slowly) moving past its 1 hour 200 day hopefully the trendline break that started it back 11 days is big enough to push gold significantly lower.

next up it will test 870, with 850 my entry, could be iffy, as 870 could make another support. It isnt out of the question that 870 will once again gold making gold to reach for 900-910 for a retest before heading lower.

Anyhow, seeing it drop back from 930 is hell nicer than seeing it above it.

Time to visit my local coin shop again ;)


EDIT: you will ask, why 850? because 850 is the .3 fib retracement from its 929 high to 681 low, because 850 is also the 200 day moving average on the daily chart, it is also very close to the uptrendline that hasnt been broken since middle of november last year. All of these makes 850 a very strong support. However I will not rule out there is the downside risk to 800 once more. This would be my dream entry. Sinec 800 is now the last fib retracement, it is also the last trendline established from the 681 low in late october. If it gets there, this could potentially set up a double bottom at 800.

resistance at 910, 930. Support at 870, 850 and 800.

[Mckenzie]

In brief:

A- Cap loss applied against cap gain and nothing else, unless it is allowable business investment loss, but that is only for private companies and beyond the scope of this discussion.

B- If it is not your lucky day, CRA will rule that your trading activities are more indicative of earning income like a business, and will not allow you to be taxed at the 50% capital gains rate. In this scenerio, you are taxed on 100% of trading income (not a gain any more) and can claim all losses (100%) and related expenses related to this 'business' (data fees, platform fees, interest on loan, CCA for PC equipment, etc.) against trading income AND other employment income. This is because you are a sole proprietor and the income / loss here just gets added / deducted from your employment as a janitor at Tim Hortons, mopping floors.

There is no magic number for the CRA, but a quick glance at trading activity will allow them to assess what you are doing...it becomes fairly obvious what you are trying to achieve. One type of test mentioned is the frequency of trades as well as the intention of your trades.

Are you looking to profit off of volatility? = Trader

Are you looking for capital appreciation? = Capital Gain

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Mckenzie
In brief:

A- Cap loss applied against cap gain and nothing else, unless it is allowable business investment loss, but that is only for private companies and beyond the scope of this discussion.

B- If it is not your lucky day, CRA will rule that your trading activities are more indicative of earning income like a business, and will not allow you to be taxed at the 50% capital gains rate. In this scenerio, you are taxed on 100% of trading income (not a gain any more) and can claim all losses (100%) and related expenses related to this 'business' (data fees, platform fees, interest on loan, CCA for PC equipment, etc.) against trading income AND other employment income. This is because you are a sole proprietor and the income / loss here just gets added / deducted from your employment as a janitor at Tim Hortons, mopping floors.

There is no magic number for the CRA, but a quick glance at trading activity will allow them to assess what you are doing...it becomes fairly obvious what you are trying to achieve. One type of test mentioned is the frequency of trades as well as the intention of your trades.

Are you looking to profit off of volatility? = Trader

Are you looking for capital appreciation? = Capital Gain

Thanks For clarifying that.

Now I wonder if I can use this to my advantage this year. If they are going to classify me as a trader then I may as well take advantage of the write offs.

I just wonder if I can switch back over to a capital appreciation tax rate if I change my activity or if they will always label you as a trader...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Thanks For clarifying that.

Now I wonder if I can use this to my advantage this year. If they are going to classify me as a trader then I may as well take advantage of the write offs.

I just wonder if I can switch back over to a capital appreciation tax rate if I change my activity or if they will always label you as a trader...

i want to know that as well, since I made about 298 trades in 2008.

[max_boost]

Slow and steady gains for me. Nothing like the gong show of HOU/HOD :rofl: I don't have to be rolling around in the middle of the night wondering if I'm going to be up or down $10K come morning time. :nut:

I'm bearish on everything right now except oil. I don't trust oil. It's like getting burned really bad in a previous relationship.

I'm hopeful that gold breaks down to $820 area. I can take my 20% gain on HBD/HGD and possibly switch over to HBU/HBD. I'm still waiting for market meltdown part 2 where the DJIA and TSX will retest its lows. Come to think of it, we aren't that far away. Continued declines in consumer confidence, increasing unemployment, a lagging economy, it's all there. Throw in more fear, everyone liquidates their portfolio, a nice blood bath and only the strong stocks will survive. Save your money for the recovery! :devil:

[ExtraSlow]

max, your posts depress me.

[djayz]

Originally posted by SilverRex


i want to know that as well, since I made about 298 trades in 2008.

I don't think that would make you a day-trader.
Most sites require 150 trades a quarter to reach active trader status and I'm sure the CRA has some guidelines as to the number of trades you do a quarter or monthly to put you in day-trader status.

Rat Fink might know some more details about this as I remember him saying he was leaving his job and going full-time day trader.
It may even be possible to register yourself as a day-trader regardless of how many trades you make or where your main source of income is from.

[ExtraSlow]

Credential Direct requires only 25 trades a quarter for "active trader" status.

Although, I'm sure the CRA has thier own rules.

[max_boost]

^^

Sorry man lol

I'm starting to wonder if I'm the only bear in this thread?

For one, history will look back at this period as one of the greatest loss of wealth in its time. This isn't simply a tech crash where one sector gets pwned, this is a global financial crisis and it affects everyone.

Why it's going to get worse? My theory is the banks haven't fully disclosed everything yet. Banks are going to get nationalized. What else? The companies that are too big to fail right? Well, the government can't save every company so they are going to have to let some die! Unemployment is going to be in the 10-12% range. Home prices are going to continue to plunge. People are rattled and scared. They are forced to liquidate whatever that is left in their retirement portfolio. The economy is just fucked, simply put.

There's a lot more but it's lunch rush right now and I have to serve (working alone today) lol :drool: