Official Short-term Investments Thread

[DJ_NAV]

i have gold bear.

[Mckenzie]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Thanks For clarifying that.

Now I wonder if I can use this to my advantage this year. If they are going to classify me as a trader then I may as well take advantage of the write offs.

I just wonder if I can switch back over to a capital appreciation tax rate if I change my activity or if they will always label you as a trader...

I know that you can elect to have your capital gains treated as income instead of capital gains, but you cannot go back after this.

I'm not sure what happens if they call you out on it (or in a perfect world, you file a proper tax return claiminng it all as business income). I would assume that they could allow the status to change, but reduced trading activity may not indicate that you have changed the intent of your trading activity (in their eyes). I will try and find an answer for this.

[max_boost]

BTW, this is where I get majority of my news feed.

www.economicnews.ca
www.bloomberg.com

For interpretation and analysis on current/future trends etc.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/

[Rat Fink]

.

[guessboi]

*Breaking news*
ING Canada sold. Now it is Canadian Owned. Trade Halted.

[ExtraSlow]

This is ING insurance only, not the ING Bank.
ING Insurance sold - article (http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090203.wing0203/BNStory/Business/home)

[guessboi]

IIC symbol. yes insurance portion only. not ING Direct.

[Mckenzie]

Ok so I spoke with the CRA capital gains department today. He said if you are earning the majority of your income from trading activities (ie. primary source of income) that the CRA will assess your activities as a business and you will be treated as such for tax purposes. However, I do know other people who have had this assessment happen and it it not a primary source of income, just a complimentary source that they happen to be good at.

[SilverRex]

Wednesday

lets kick off with gold first, gold has been on a steady decline sinces monday, the good news was it broke the 1 hour trendline, but the bad news is, the 200 day moving average held its fort and now it wants to test above 900-910. Key area will be around 906-910.

While I believe this area will hold, nothing is always clear until it happens.

I can only imagine the trendline break at 1 hr is big enough of a signal that eventually it will run into weakness.

So if that is the case then 905-910 should provide good resistance and we shall see 870 soon.

again I must recap, gold is in its own league you just never know what it can really do. So 3 things could happen. 1, it will head for 870 for a double bottom here before reaching higher, 2. it will go for 850 since most support is helded up here, or 3 fall to 800 as the final level which would be nice. If someone does not have any position what so ever in gold I would recommend starting a position at 870, follow by 850 then 800.

it could take another week or two before 850 so patients.


on oil front, the ever slightly downward channel continues to hold true and oil is now finding the upper range 41-43 area. Key is to get above 41.57 to be bullish and above 42 to break this cycle. other wise it will continue to trade between 39-43 and tighter yet 40-42 for a little longer until it can decide what to do. I would imagine the moment oil touches 42 it will again sell off back towards 40. so trade accordingly. (note. but I do find there is a ever so slightly reverse head and shoulder formed if oil does get back above 42 therefore it could be any moment that oil decides to break and suddenly head towards 45 (of course I will take profit if that happens) Therefore what I'll do is watch oil closely around the 41.50 area, especially 41, since 41 is now the 50 day moving average and the newly formed trendline from the base of 33, 39.50 and 40.98) AS long as 41 holds I will hold my position towards 44-45 for a breakout potential, then it will probablly fall sharply back to earth like it always did in the last few weeks to test the supports that will soon be around 42-42.50 and I will buy back for another hold towards 47

short term outlook 39-42, breakout will push to 45 and medium term I see 42-47

[SilverRex]

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/2-3cv/2GoldenBottomFeb3.jpg

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/2-3cv/3GoldenBottomFeb3.jpg

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/2-3cv/4GoldenBottomFeb3.jpg

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/2-3cv/5GoldenBottomFeb3.jpg


Not to ruin the mood for those who are bearish in the market. But compare the chart above between 2002/03 and 08/09 you just have to wonder the similarity between the two.

Question begs to be asked, could it really be that we have seen the bottom? While this crisis is alot worse than what happen in 02/03 but the thing is, if it were that easy, everyone would be rich but because sometime there are just forces out there that leads you to believe something truely isnt, for example, what if the gov around the globe allowed this to happen so that they can fulfill their evil agenda, such as printing more money really for themselves? Or they know the inevitable of the debt is too great to bear so they allow it to crash so they can easily build everything back up but now with tax paper's cash and guess who profits from this?

I hate to say it, but if this is the bottom the this will make buffet now only a genious but a godsend figure of investing and his timing is just unbelievable.

even if DOW was to make newer lows, I Cant see it lower than 6500 because that is where the next big supprt is, that brings us to like 20 year low.l and I can be certain there will be heavy sell off the 1st time when dow reaches 10-11k because its 200 day moving average is too big to overcome on any first try.

But if the market is about to take flight (with the stim pack) then boy will oil fly to the moon. (that translate to it getting back to 70 dollars)

maybe I Shouldnt wait for 6500 DOW, I Should (since I alredy opened my TFSA, drop some coins in the shanghai index as it looks ready to pop to 2500)

SAM: I know you are very bearish on the economy, but dont forget history shows the stock market always crash before the economy turns red, but it also rallies siginifcant before the economy turns green, so by the time you start seeing great news for the economy, the stock market had already rallied 20-30%. Just something to keep in perspective.

it may be more difficult to short because the potential that it could have put in a bottom risk is always there. But because the market is near a bottom if it hadnt already, then your best bet is to start scaling into your long term positions. spread out your investment every 10% it dips in the market and prosper 5-10 years from now. Just look at the index in china, you can tell it had bottom and now its actually making amove, I myself believe china will give the greatest returns in terms of country growth for the coming decade. Dont get washed up into this, market is finished, because when the daily joe, you and I start thinking like this, when no one is buying, that is when the market decides to turn around.

What is worse then loosing alot of money in 07.08? that is trying to short the market when we are near the bottom is very dangerous, and missing the boat when it rallies. 5 years from now, everyone will say, so did you get in and position your self accordingly back in 09? and your answer hopefully will be YES.

[ExtraSlow]

I haven't had any kind of technical analysis to back it up, but this is what I've been telling my friends and family for a couple of months.
if I keep saying it long enough, eventually, I'll be right. :rolleyes:

[SilverRex]

update: oil is testing its high so far around 41.80ish let see if oil can finally break this downward channel top at 42, a breakout could lead to 44-45 sharply. I am well positioned around 41, and I wont care about if price dips from 42 since, 41 is a good support now. do or die

I just hope the market doesnt rally huge, but slowly so I can build up my long term profolio:D

update: HOU or I should say oil is currently fighting around 41-41.8, within seconds I notice it went from 7.55 to 7.49 then back to 7.52.

place your bets. I say bulls win at 41

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

^ I think sometime between 7th-9th

[e36bmw///]

nm

[civic_rida]

if thats the case ill buy more lol

[max_boost]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
oh really, damn, maybe i should just wait a bit to sell
April contract is at 45 almost

so at 45, thats almost a 10% gain

means the hou around 20% or $8.90?

WHAT?!>!:rofl:

February 13th it'll be tracking the April contract 100%.

Just because the oil contract rolls over to the next month and there's a 10% jump in the contract $41----->$45 DOES NOT mean there will be a 20% jump in HOU.

HOU tracks the intra-day movement.

Example:

On February 12th, oil is at $41, HOU is at $7.40 (March contract)
On February 13th, oil is at $45, HOU is still at $7.40 (April contract)

Rollover doesn't affect it!

I thought we've been through this? lol

If you can factor in the contango, I would be driving my R8 right now and living on an island right now. :rofl:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[ExtraSlow]

if we roll over to a contract that is 10% higher, you don't see a 20% gain on HOU. you see a . . . 0% gain.

in fact, rolling over to a higher priced contract actually hurts HOU, because it it ties you to a higher number, so the possibility of loss is increased.

I need out of HOU, I don't have the balls for it.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex


SAM: I know you are very bearish on the economy, but dont forget history shows the stock market always crash before the economy turns red, but it also rallies siginifcant before the economy turns green, so by the time you start seeing great news for the economy, the stock market had already rallied 20-30%. Just something to keep in perspective.
[/B]

Thanks bro but the glass is still half empty from my perspective ;)

There's still another 20% down leg on the markets. I do plan to go long but right now is not the time. The longer the markets rally it's just delaying the inevitable. We will see the DJIA in the mid 6000's and the TSX in the low 7000's. Unlike my HOU/HOD investments, I'm spreading things out over 3 positions and I've only utilized one so far.

It's way too premature to suggest that we have found a bottom. The US unemployment rate is only at 7.X%, we will be over 10% before this thing stabilizes. They are losing jobs at a rate of 500,000/month! :eek: The banking system is a mess, the housing sector is a mess, there is absolutely no reason to be bullish about anything. More companies WILL FAIL. The government can't save everyone. This is going to be a blood bath and history will look back at it as the Great Depression Part 2.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
if we roll over to a contract that is 10% higher, you don't see a 20% gain on HOU. you see a . . . 0% gain.

in fact, rolling over to a higher priced contract actually hurts HOU, because it it ties you to a higher number, so the possibility of loss is increased.

I need out of HOU, I don't have the balls for it.

What's your cost on HOU? I think you bought it over a month ago?

I couldn't believe I thought the rollover meant a higher price for HOU, it cost me huge :(

Anyway, I'm hoping for a rollover to $45, some :bullshit: rally up to $48. Maybe OPEC will come out and say they'll cut supplies or some shit? lol and then BAM, get into HOD and get out when oil falls to $42. That's the plan at least hehe

This is the temporary bottom for oil. 7+million crude inventory increase and gasoline inventory up 250K or 350K? Can''t recall.
And this doesn't even move the oil price! WTF!

Clearly a massive over supply! :nut: :dunno:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost


Thanks bro but the glass is still half empty from my perspective ;)

There's still another 20% down leg on the markets. I do plan to go long but right now is not the time. The longer the markets rally it's just delaying the inevitable. We will see the DJIA in the mid 6000's and the TSX in the low 7000's. Unlike my HOU/HOD investments, I'm spreading things out over 3 positions and I've only utilized one so far.

It's way too premature to suggest that we have found a bottom. The US unemployment rate is only at 7.X%, we will be over 10% before this thing stabilizes. They are losing jobs at a rate of 500,000/month! :eek: The banking system is a mess, the housing sector is a mess, there is absolutely no reason to be bullish about anything. More companies WILL FAIL. The government can't save everyone. This is going to be a blood bath and history will look back at it as the Great Depression Part 2.

all your points are valid, amid things dont go exactly the way you want it just like oil, bad news hit it goes up, good news hit, it tanks. what gives?

if you wait no doubt 6000 DOW is possible given current condition, but you could see a big rally before that happens. on that note, scaling into a position around DOW between 6-8000 is a win win situation over the long haul. Waiting for 6000 dow on the other hand and if it never gets there, ouch, when gold was at 681, everyone was calling 500, and look at now, we are thinking 850 is gift.

No one can pick the bottom thats for sure. As creamer puts in, scale down accordingly :) of course its your money. I just offer my own opinion of the hundreds of article and charts I analysis over the months.

good luck :) because I want a ride in your R8 too

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost


What's your cost on HOU? I think you bought it over a month ago?

I couldn't believe I thought the rollover meant a higher price for HOU, it cost me huge :(

Anyway, I'm hoping for a rollover to $45, some :bullshit: rally up to $48. Maybe OPEC will come out and say they'll cut supplies or some shit? lol and then BAM, get into HOD and get out when oil falls to $42. That's the plan at least hehe

This is the temporary bottom for oil. 7+million crude inventory increase and gasoline inventory up 250K or 350K? Can''t recall.
And this doesn't even move the oil price! WTF!

Clearly a massive over supply! :nut: :dunno:

yeah oil seems to move closely to the performence of the stock market now.

[ExtraSlow]

Even if that's true, and I think things are a little more positive than that. Stock markets are a leading indicator of a recovery, so they'll go up before the other economic numbers do.
Let's meet back here in 12 months and we'll see who's more correct.

[SilverRex]

^ sometimes that is what I find, the more obvious, the exact opposit happens, that is what kills most investor.

I remember a saying back when I cant remember if it was Ford himself, during the great crash or prior, he sold all his investment because he overheard the average joe in an elvator of how much the stocks have risen. When everyone including your neighbour is in all it, you know its time to do the opposit.

so the same applies when everyone's talk in their ear is nothing but depressing news, how the market is finished, cant retired now etc etc. next thing you know, bam, market is up and your like wtf? what gives, that is because we dont control the stock market, the greedy sons of bitches (for example JP morgan) high gov officials, what ever you want to call it, pulling strings to fulfill their own accord.

Its funny last year how the gov would save some banks but not another, clearly shows, if your in with us, your against us theroy and get booted out the piece of the pie.

this recession isnt a consequence, in the eyes of the evil doers, its called cleaning the house, making sure they can cover their tracks but sinking the entire world at the same time, using bad debt as excuse to bring new money supply into the game to save their own ass and set them selves up for a bigger windfall.

If buffet, one of the all time genius in stock market valuation jumps all in around DOW at 7700 and saying Cash/bond/treasury is about to burst. I am sure he too know something we dont and that is the dirty game being played and the media gets manipulated. your next generatoin will simply look back on today as just another economy crash amid maybe less damaging than the great depression but as worse as the tech bubble if not tag worse. But who can ever imagine what goes on behind close doors, the players, the CEO, the banks, the official and even the SEC, oh the madoff case just shows you how incompotent they are.

We cant fight this, all we can do is tag along and prosper with it.

Lets bring gold into the picture, I know if there is such big manipulation in the mental market, then you would believe no chance will the US gov allow gold to keep going higher? well to a certain extend yes, that is why you see sometimes gold can fall faster than it goes up, they ..are... trying to surpress it and prolong their strength in their own greenback, but one article I read hit the spot for me. They are now saying the US gov allowed gold to move higher because for one, they know its is harder and harder to keep it down, the other because they still own 1/3 in gold reserve (after they sold off like 2/3 in the last decade). What more reason to offetset their balance sheet by allowing Gold price to be higher so that their trillion dollars of money and debt is anchored somewhat of a backing.

ok enough bla for the day:poosie:

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by SilverRex

Question begs to be asked, could it really be that we have seen the bottom? While this crisis is alot worse than what happen in 02/03 but the thing is, if it were that easy, everyone would be rich but because sometime there are just forces out there that leads you to believe something truely isnt, for example, what if the gov around the globe allowed this to happen so that they can fulfill their evil agenda, such as printing more money really for themselves? Or they know the inevitable of the debt is too great to bear so they allow it to crash so they can easily build everything back up but now with tax paper's cash and guess who profits from this?


Nice charts Rex;

One thing that I have been trying to figure out is the duration of each of these crashes we have had. This one looks similar to a lot of the others in the sort of regressions and surges that have appeared on charts but it is much shorter in duration.

This doesn't feel like something that would be shorter in duration than other crashes but then again I really never experienced them like I am this one.

It is something to consider as the look of the chart changes when you extend it to meet the same number of days as the previous crashes. The 00-02 last 763 days from peak to trough, the 73-74 lasted 637. So far this one has been 406. Maybe the fact that it crashed slightly further and faster makes up for the lack of duration since they always seem to lose around the 48% mark.

In the end I am rather bullish but maybe that is just foolish.

[max_boost]

SilverRex, so you believe that there are the 'men behind the curtains' calling the shots too eh?

I'm not discounting the chart because it is eerie similar but back in 02, I don't recall a housing/banking crisis, massive unemployment, and a global recession which is why I believe that there is more to come. Not that I'm looking forward to it because what I stand to lose in my business/real estate far outweighs my portfolio!

[SilverRex]

anyways all in all, there are way too many variables but one thing I am sure we can all agree upon and that is, we are nearer to a bottom than we are the top.


Anyways looking an oil while anything is possible either way. Right now I can only say for the last week or so, oil has been trading between 3 levels. there is the 38% level at 43, the 50% retracement level at 41 and the 61% final level at 39.

as you can see oil gets rejected immediately upon testing 43 and falling to 41. this level held up until a few days ago when it started playing below and into the 39 area. This turn 41 into a resistance.

I thought it would touch 39 but it didnt, it quickly got back above 41 and now that it broke above this (this morning) I can only try to imagine that now it is back to a 41-43 play.

So I will try to see if I can profit from this, my average is at 41 so I will set a take profit at 43 which is about 8.10-8.12 of HOU. then I will wait for better signal for all I know, if oil was indeed headed lower, the 41 resistance would have stopped it from advancing further. it dipped to a 39-41 play but suddenly it looks more like it is back to a 41-43 play.

so let see if my call is correct (crossing my fingers)

edit: looking at last week after the report came out, oil shot up 2-3 dollars only to drop back down, and it too try to make a similar rally the following two days in a smiliar matter.

if that is to be repeated that means within the next 30 mins or so, oil will make a 1-2 dollar rally only to get sell off after reaching its peak probablly around 42-43 area. And thursday and friday will be no different around this time of the day. let see if that will happen

[BigMass]

SilverRex

Did you know that there is a pact set up by the World Gold Council between the IMF and many governments in Europe, the UK and England to sell a certain quota of Gold every year? This pact ends this year. It will be interesting to see what happens to the price of Gold after that without all the forced central bank selling. Even with that pact we hit $1000/oz

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BigMass
SilverRex

Did you know that there is a pact set up by the World Gold Council between the IMF and many governments in Europe, the UK and England to sell a certain quota of Gold every year? This pact ends this year. It will be interesting to see what happens to the price of Gold after that without all the forced central bank selling. Even with that pact we hit $1000/oz

yes I know that, the agreement was 5 years if I wasnt mistaken and ends sometime in september. Alot of data shows many countries only sell their requirement and their option to sell more have stopped.

I wont be surprise that gold doesnt really start to move above 1000 until end of the year which if you look at last 3 months, gold's best performence is usually in the later part of the year. But regardless that is good news for me as I want to pick up more bullion in the process.

gold can either be range bounce until towards the end of the year or it can peak out at 1000 and an aggressive selloff will begin, but the 800-850 we see now should hold until year end to make another move above 1000

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

^ that is what I predict doesnt mean it will happen lol but I hope it will since my average HOU price is at 7.50 so I will sell the moment it hits into the 8

has anyone notice for the last 6 oil trading days, it ALWAYS rally beteen 11-12noon our time?

I wonder if it is true that someone is trying to pick up oil on a regular interval each and every day.

the rally ranges anywhere from 1-3 dollars.

if that is the case I see a rally in the DOW coming

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
if that is to be repeated that means within the next 30 mins or so, oil will make a 1-2 dollar rally only to get sell off after reaching its peak probablly around 42-43 area. And thursday and friday will be no different around this time of the day. let see if that will happen

I don't think so.

:poosie:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Z_Fan


I don't think so.

:poosie:

your welcome to think so, but odds are in my favor because it's been doing that for many days and what is the chance that the moment I discover this is when it decided not too lol

:dunno:

[DJ_NAV]

The rally comes and goes right away usually... so have your orders set, before you miss it. HOD and HOU aren't as volatile anymore... that means i gotta wait a while longer to cash out!

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


your welcome to think so, but odds are in my favor because it's been doing that for many days and what is the chance that the moment I discover this is when it decided not too lol

:dunno:

There was a similar pattern a just a little while back, and I made a comment about it ... the 2PM rally ... and sure as shit, it happened. (It was posted in this thread) However, that was the last time it happened for many days...so go figure.

So while I know where you're coming from I doubt it's going to happen today. But if oil hits $43 today, I'll buy the drinks.

:devil:

[bigbadboss101]

Solar power is in trouble? What u think of Arise? APV

[max_boost]

The trend is that there is no trend. ;)

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by max_boost
The trend is that there is no trend. ;)

The trend is North Americans are getting more fat everyday.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Solar power is in trouble? What u think of Arise? APV

Anyone remember Timminco? $35----->$3 in one year.

Don't know enough about the industry to comment but TIM was the first thing that came to mind when you mentioned solar power. :dunno:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex

this recession isnt a consequence, in the eyes of the evil doers, its called cleaning the house, making sure they can cover their tracks but sinking the entire world at the same time, using bad debt as excuse to bring new money supply into the game to save their own ass and set them selves up for a bigger windfall.


haha

Just want to comment on this, if the evildoers want to clean house, they have more than enough ammo to do a thorough job this time around right? They have everything in their favor to make it happen. They wouldn't just let it flop 40% from its peak to 8000 and let it turn around. At the very least, let a good blood bath happen which is why I stand by my 5500-6000 DJIA prediction. :devil:

[Z_Fan]

Oil going down the shitter.

We need it to rally +2.60 from it's current position to get to $43.

:poosie:

[max_boost]

Fuck oil. :facepalm:

Sold my HOD because I couldn't take it. :poosie:

[Z_Fan]

Hopefully you sold it when it dipped to $39.85-$39.90 range and made out OK.

Hahah.

The fucking rally is already 16 minutes LATE! :poosie: :dunno: :devil:

[Z_Fan]

Perhaps we'll get a rally to get us back to where we were before the rally was supposed to start!!
:poosie:

[civic_rida]

What just happened. This is what i get for going for lunch lol.

[DJ_NAV]

go hod!

[civic_rida]

So much for that support around 40 dollars.

[civic_rida]

Im really pissed cause there was no reason for oil to drop like it did.

[DarthHonda]

It should get back up tomorrow...Bank of America dragged down the DOW and that in turn dragged on oil. Nothing to worry about, it's still hovering around $40. There should be a rally after the rollover next week with the stimulus plan announced.

[SilverRex]

phuck, so I drew the wrong supports. I guess I overlooked the fact that if I draw the same values from 50 high to 33 low then I Actually get a support at 40 dollars.

So really, depending on how and what chart you look at, you can say there is support at 39 and 41 but also 40 and 42.

after redrawing my support lines you can clearly see

when oil is weak, then support and resistance is 40 and 42 but when oil makes a run above the 200 day (42) the resistance suddenly starts with 41 and 43.

Confusing? yes.

none the less I have been trying to figure out why 40 dollars held up and not 39 as it should been technically. Now it make sense.

so oil was trading 39/41 and 41/43 until it made a new low around 40 2 days ago and since then the channel suddenly changed to 40/42 and 42/44.

therefore 40 is the last holding ground. explains why the 200day PLUS resitance at 42 held up so well as I kept thinking it was at 43.

yes I dropped the ball technically today. should have sold HOU near 42 this morning instead of waiting blindly for 43

so now its a do or die situation. Lets hope 40 holds to put in a triple bottom and make another run towards 42, only above this will we get more mometum to test the 43-44 area. Or this could work with the roll over because it will bring the price back above 42. I dont know why this is so but depite gain wise you dont make anything over the roll over, but technically it counts. Unfortunately roll over for some of the chart I use doesnt get updated until the 3rd week of the month.

[DarthHonda]

^^ so are you saying once it breaks $40 it's all over? or is it $39?

how will the rollover affect this? assuming we're not factoring the Obama stimulus in yet...

All this technical stuff is hurting my head :nut:

edit: still confused after reading your edit lol

[SilverRex]

^

yeah I began looking into this after the last roller over, because I was curious to see how this all plays out technically.

what I notice was, in the past the front contract price and the price of the next month usually is close 2-4 dollars. However what we saw late in december, perhaps in Janurary was more or less abnormal. When the front contract month was about to expire, they were sold off desperately

so while the front month may have dropped significantly anywhere from 4-8 dollars, the rest of the future contracts did not drop as much in fact they were all stable only on a slow decline.

So what I wanted to say is, when oil first dipped to 33 last month, the significant drop did not follow all contracts. so you can say we never traded 33 dollars unless you actually held the front contract delivery.

and better yet, HOU rolled over long before the huge sell off began. So that is one bright point with HOU, then during a massive selloff, we are dealing with a different future contract that moves less when it gets extremely volatile wards the end of the month but of course the downside to that effect is that you will not get the benefit of getting into the oil price if it ever dips to a new low.

but regardless of the gap between contracts, tecnically it still impact oil price over all. so while you cannot profit the gain from 33 dollar oil to 44 during the last roll over, technically it actually did move higher, because there was no more contract at 33 dollars left for anyone to buy except 44 dollars. so physically, oil was indeed trading at 44. Mind you we were never trading at 33 to begin with.

This bolds well if oil price was in a uptrend because month after month, technically it moves higher making it more and more bullish but the same can be applied if it was in a bearish sentiment, causing more panic and the mentality of 45-50 dollar oil is too high and in turn creates a big sell off right after it is rolled over, but the technical jump creates support, and those who trade oil based upon this will no doubt start getting in. hence oil kept up very well above 40 dollars on a simple fact that long term investor got their buying signals

I hope this clears it up a bit if I havent already caused more confusion. lol

and to add to this, if it was that easy that the moment oil rolls over from 33 to 44 and everyone thinks it will drop back to 33 needs to be careful, because look what happen in Janurary, it dipped initially but actually made a run to 48 instead. This goes on to prove that the technical pricing of oil actually makes and firm the oil price postively in very volatile periods. You just have to take it day by day.

Sam can be a testiment of what happens trying to short oil to 30 after the roll over. it aint as easy as it looks lol

[DarthHonda]

ok I guess I'm just not smart enough to understand all of it, but what I got was, as long as oil don't sell off before HOU rollsover (which is way before the actual NYMEX rollover), then we should be good yes?

So I guess my gut feeling that $40 oil should hold for the next week or two is correct? (I'm in HOU at $7.54 this morning and got pwned today lol...) :facepalm:

[civic_rida]

I think we are all sitting around mid 7's hoping to sell at 8.

[DarthHonda]

lol I'm not even that optimistic, $7.7x is good enough for me, $7.8x I can go on vacation next month. $8 I can take the month off lol

[max_boost]

SilverRex
^

It makes perfect sense but I don't think DarthHonda understands how the rollover process works yet.

Simply put, DarthHonda, you have until February 9th to trade HOU based on the March contract.

Rollover begins on the 7th/8th/9th business day of the month.

Feb 10-12, the rollover begins, it takes 3 days.

Feb 10: HOU will track 75% of March contract and 25% of April

Feb 11: HOU will track 50% of March and 50% of April

Feb 12: HOU will track 75% of April and 25% of April

Feb 13th, HOU will track 100% the April contract solely.

Definition of Contango: Future months are trading at a higher premium than current month.

Right now March is trading at $40, if April starts at $45, you would think it should fall back down right? Yeah I would say so but you never know! The stimulus/OPEC could drive it up to challenge $50 again and it may or may not crack it and may send oil tumbling down again.

The thing is, the $5 spread from $40-$45, HOU doesn't gain on that, if anything, you LOSE that $5 window of appreciation. To gain that $5 window back, oil would have to go from $45 to 51. ;)

I'm just not bullish on oil at all. :rofl:

[max_boost]

I'll tell you this, I'll be first on board the HOD train if oil gets anywhere near $50! lol :thumbsup:

[DarthHonda]

thanks max...looks like I'll have til Monday to get out of HOU then, fingers crossed lol...

$7.16 close today, epic fail :facepalm: :guns: :whipped: :cry:

[DJ_NAV]

Buying HOU is a FAIL. It goes up very little and goes down a lot.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
Buying HOU is a FAIL. It goes up very little and goes down a lot.

I've lost less on HOD but, made far more on HOU. It's kind of a balance. At the end of the day you just hope to come out ahead. Sometimes a little ahead, other times a lot.

Edit**

Where I find the best merit is, is not in where it ends up from today to tomorrow, or even from Monday to Friday but more the many up and down swings throughout the day.

[max_boost]

Until you guys lose $20K chasing HOU/HOD like me, then it's not EPIC fail. No I'm not bragging about my losses, telling you guys so you don't feel as bad! haha All it takes is a few days going the wrong way and you are fucked. I've never lost so much chasing a stock in such a short time. Chalk that one up to an expensive learning experience. :rofl:

Why do you think I'm writing so much about the contango, rollover etc. when someone new mentions oil? Because it can get expensive! Mind you the wild fluctuations we were seeing are gone temporarily. Oil has been relatively tame recently.

Anyway, I'm trying to short the TSX and S&P right now and this is going to take more time. I'm calling for the doom of the markets but I'll have to wait until after everyone realizes the stimulus is a farce and won't do shit all first

:D

[DJ_NAV]

^I'm sure no one is aiming for an "EPIC fail", but at the same time we can all agree that HOU in general has been a FAIL for last 3-4 months. I have made some money from it, but have lost a lot more. In fact, in the last 3 months only trade resulted in a loss and it was HOU. meanwhile, HOD does go down and sometimes I think I should cash it out for a loss, but it turns around within a day or two.

[max_boost]

^

Oh definitely! Just look at the 3 month chart! :facepalm:

[yoda124]

NG is a good long term hold.For short term, trade Dryships (DRYS).Buy near close and sell on gap up next morning.Easy money and very predictable.

[Inzane]

Originally posted by DarthHonda
(I'm in HOU at $7.54 this morning and got pwned today lol...) :facepalm:

You did NOT get owned. HOU closed at 7.16 today. That is not ownage. :rolleyes:

I was in at 7.50 from last friday and still holding. I've got a sell order in for $9 good until the end of february, then I'll reassess from there if it hasn't sold by then.

I don't know what is with all you guys that seem to panick and knee-jerk on every little micro-move that stock makes from day to day.

[civic_rida]

The fact the longer you hold it the harder it is to make money is the reason people panic.

[DarthHonda]

I'm slightly worried because I've never held HOU overnight before, I've been trading it since mid-January and made a few grand so far just riding it up on dips intra-day... :poosie:

[aklalani]

Originally posted by Inzane


You did NOT get owned. HOU closed at 7.16 today. That is not ownage. :rolleyes:

I was in at 7.50 from last friday and still holding. I've got a sell order in for $9 good until the end of february, then I'll reassess from there if it hasn't sold by then.

I don't know what is with all you guys that seem to panick and knee-jerk on every little micro-move that stock makes from day to day.

u guys think your fucked eh. im in at $10.34/share. Thats my first batch of 9000. then bought another 5000 at $7.87. hopefully next week we can ride it up

[aklalani]

Originally posted by yoda124
NG is a good long term hold.For short term, trade Dryships (DRYS).Buy near close and sell on gap up next morning.Easy money and very predictable.

yea and hopefully dont get stuck with DRYS when it goes to ZERO. friend of mine works at deloitte. they goin brokeeee

[civic_rida]

your crazy man.

[bigbadboss101]

Of late I have been putting a somewhat stink bid on both HOU and HOD. Then I sell it or a small gain. Since oil has been fluctuation both ways every day, there's the opportunities for gains.

[civic_rida]

If i had 9000 shares at 10.34 in hou i wouldnt be able to sleep at night.

[Rat Fink]

.

[aklalani]

Originally posted by civic_rida
If i had 9000 shares at 10.34 in hou i wouldnt be able to sleep at night.

yea ive been through that. but its ok. think positive and longterm. thats my new way of coping with it

[Z_Fan]

Aklalani wins.

Max_Boost lost $20k on HOU and by my calcs, that's way less than the $32,170.00 that Aklalani has lost.

And he's lost that $32,000.00 in less than 2 weeks, cuz HOU was only up in that range once and that was very recently.

:thumbsdow

[aklalani]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Aklalani wins.

Max_Boost lost $20k on HOU and by my calcs, that's way less than the $32,170.00 that Aklalani has lost.

And he's lost that $32,000.00 in less than 2 weeks, cuz HOU was only up in that range once and that was very recently.

:thumbsdow

yep. for now though. hopefully we can recalculate in this thread 5 yrs from now :):):)

[aklalani]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Aklalani wins.

Max_Boost lost $20k on HOU and by my calcs, that's way less than the $32,170.00 that Aklalani has lost.

And he's lost that $32,000.00 in less than 2 weeks, cuz HOU was only up in that range once and that was very recently.

:thumbsdow

might i add. you havent lost until you have sold just as you havent made until youve sold!!!

[max_boost]

Holy fuck aklalani! :eek:

I hope oil rallies, OPEC cuts, stimulus, maybe a middle east flare up for a couple days so you can gtfo of HOU! Then switch to HOD as it falls. :thumbsup:

[aklalani]

Originally posted by max_boost
Holy fuck aklalani! :eek:

I hope oil rallies, OPEC cuts, stimulus, maybe a middle east flare up for a couple days so you can gtfo of HOU! Then switch to HOD as it falls. :thumbsup:

hope so too man. still kicking myself for not selling that one day when it rallied up to $10.50

lets wait and see :)

[SilverRex]

Thursday

let see oil as with the last many days is holding its ground at 40 dollars. we can all sleep alittle better if it can get back above 41. other wise we are stuck at 39.0-41.50 area, you can tell the 200 day moving average on the 1 hour chart is moving lower every day. if 40 dollar continues to hold, something will have to give, either it will break above 41.50 and cause a rally immediately to 43-43.5 or oil will get bully down to 39.08

the outcome as I am sure for those of us that are holding the bag, I can only pray oil is forming a U shape bottom and the 40 dollar we saw will start skewing higher to the point that it an break 41.50. Otherwise profit from the 40 to 41.50 swings both ways :)

gold, I picked up some more bullion coin yesterday, and now that gold is back up above 810 of course the bulls are at it again, the trendline break didnt make a dent to the charts, the 200 day held up on the 1hr (you ask why 200 day on the 1hr? because that is probablly one of the very highly use indicator around.) now it appears it wants to test the 928-929 high or perhaps break it? Only two pattern is going to play out, either gold will indeed break above 930 and the moment it touches 931 it will launch straight thru to 950-980, if this happens then our saving grace will be to wait for a pull back to 930 because 930 will not become the new support area.

but, if my wish and calculations are correct, gold needs to come back down at least 70 dollars before making a higher move. therefore all eyes for it to break below 910 againto form a mini head and shoulders, kind of repeat the same pattern back in late december when it first goto 890, droped 45 bucks then made almost a double top at 888 before finally surcoming to sell pressure that eventually bought it to what would have been the place to get in around 800. My mistake was, I overestimated the strength of the sell off, thinking 800 and 770 was my entry and I chickend out, got greedy as I wanted 770 and it never happen.

Anyways lesson learn, must spread out my position, based upon where lines come together, it will be 867, 850 and 800. Who knows, maybe the 870 trendline break in late January would become 850 by the time gold does come down in two weeks, wont that line things up nicely.

The only fear I have is that in Feb 08, gold price rocketd higher, it didnt really crash until mid March. But March was also the time when it made new heights too, so I wont mind if gold price can crash in a big way now, and rally to a new high comes march. One thing my brother taught me and that is, until the 50, 100 and 200 EMA crosses over to be bullish, over all gold is very much in a down trend on the daily chart, which suggest there will be heavy selling pressure above 920 that will quickly bring it back to the 200 day once again and guess where the 200 day lies? you guessed it, 852 right now.

Sometimes it so hard to keep my emotion in check and be patient. I took my profit on silver from 10.30 to 11.40, then missed the run to 12.77 because I didnt buy back. So now I have to wait, one of these days silver is going to drop a buck or two, then its time to load up like there is no tomorrow. ;)

EDIT: I'm shorting gold above 920 and silver above 12.80

[civic_rida]

hou is now down under 7 dollars

[SilverRex]

let see, oil is indeed wanting to get to 39,

the hammer that pushed to a newer low is much more bearish then when it bounced off 40 the last few times, which means, this low under 40 could be a breakdown.

I'm temporaryly exiting this and re position myself with 39, 37 and 35 oil.

all I know is, below 40 oil is great buy, and below 35 is crazy buy. I dont think it will get below 30, because you can tell there are way more money on the side line waiting to get in.


ok as for gold, gold is coming down as I saw, shorted above 920 :) making a few good coins at the moment. this should provide the head and shoulder on the lower level charts and the moment it can break below 910 once again will be nice, then I will move my stop to break even and wait for my 870 target and turn around start thinking long at 870, 850

[civic_rida]

I see it going back to around over 7 dollars.

I would of never sold it below 7

[SilverRex]

puck Bank of america was at 3.77,

that is so cheap, now its back to 4.33, if it can dip close to 4 bucks I'll throw in a 1000 dollars for fun. Look at Morgan Stanley, after hitting sub 6 it is now at 24.

I think this bank is to big to fail, any package or aid will double it up instantly.

Hack I'll buy another thousand dollar every dollar it dips. I am sure weeks from now the banking aid or package will no doubt lift this stock.

Just like GM, went to almost a dollar then shot all the way up to 6 dollars.

:D

[civic_rida]

anyone still holding onto hou?

[SilverRex]

^

I sold my HOU, take a 7% lost as my limit. I am going to reposition myself between 33-39 (if it ever gets there)

if it doesnt, then I dont feel shameful, since my eyes are on gold. I am going to increase my cash with my forex account to anticpate a drop to 850 area to load up.

going to play a few small gambles with Bank of America

[Blownturbo]

Originally posted by civic_rida
anyone still holding onto hou?

I'm still holding onto HOU.
I'm just going to ride this one out...
but with the rollover coming up soon I'm not too sure =\

[Z_Fan]

I just sold a little under half my position at $7.10.

A loss of 9.3% on those shares. :nut:

If it drops, I might buy them back and attempt to flip them. :dunno:

[civic_rida]

Dow and S&p are up today and oil is going down.

havent seen that in a while

[Z_Fan]

Typically when I decide to sell HOU, it goes up. Which is why I decided to just sell half. Hahaha, I am half expecting oil to go up to $42 now, simply because I sold my HOU.

I wish I was joking.

:dunno:

[bigbadboss101]

Yeah I was looking at BAC at 3.99. Darn.

But you do get ripped off with the exchange rate though.

[aklalani]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Yeah I was looking at BAC at 3.99. Darn.

But you do get ripped off with the exchange rate though.

id only consider it if i had some us dollars sitting around

[SilverRex]

dam Bank of American almost regain all of its 30% loss this morning. wtf

well im not touching it unless it dips to 4 or below lol

yes the exchange rate sucks so im not jumping in unless its worth it.

oil is holding its ground AGAIN above 40. I'm just going to take it day by day, right now it looks good for a 40-41.50 play

[ExtraSlow]

I still have some HOU, but I'm thinking that I shoudl liquidate and cut my losses.
Put it back into XCS, SPB or something NAE.UN or something else that's beter for long term holding.

[max_boost]

Damn oil!
I knew it would eventually cave in and fall under $40! I'm so weak for not sticking with it. :poosie: :nut:

As for gold, still waiting for the pull back, it's going to pull back, right? I hope so!

[dj_honda]

Originally posted by civic_rida
anyone still holding onto hou?

unfortunately yes.

[aklalani]

Originally posted by dj_honda


unfortunately yes.

think positive. things will turn around

[DarthHonda]

Originally posted by aklalani


think positive. things will turn around

For all of us left in the HOU club, let's hope so, and especially for you amigo, I almost feel a lot better when I think about your entry point. :eek:

Maybe Z_Fan should sell the rest of his HOU so we can all recover lol
:bigpimp:

[DarthHonda]

DOW erased all its losses from yesterday...WHY IS OIL STILL DOWN!?? Gahhh this is pissing me off...