Gold Bars

[msommers]

I recently found out Scotiabank is selling gold bars of various sizes, up to 20oz, and it peaked my interest. My only concern is that given gold is at an all time high or very close to right now, what are the chances that these bars will depreciate in value over a year or two?

[themack89]

Originally posted by msommers
I recently found out Scotiabank is selling gold bars of various sizes, up to 20oz, and it peaked my interest. My only concern is that given gold is at an all time high or very close to right now, what are the chances that these bars will depreciate in value over a year or two?

See if they sell barrels of oil or campbells soup.. You can burn a gold bar and u can't eat a gold bar.

[bspot]

I think buying gold on the way out of the recession likely isn't the wisest timing.

[Super_Geo]

Depends on if you buy into the whole "USD is going to crash" theory... which I'm still on the fence about.

Barrick paid $5.6B last year to break out of contracts because it believed gold was going to be higher... it was at $1000 then, it peaked just above $1200. I think a lot of people who are really bullish on gold thing it's going to reach $2000 in the next couple of years as the USD loses footing from mounting debt and lack of real GDP growth.

Another thing to think about... the majority of gold is still used for jewlery. I think it's somewhere around 2/3, and most consumed by India and China. Purchasing gold for investment has been a recent trend by Western banking and investment systems as a hedge against inflation and whether or not that's going to remain a long term trend as economies recover is a big question (as interest rates go up the opportunity cost of holding gold as an investment increases, and people will likely pull money out of gold and put it into the equity market for a greater return).

So I guess it boils down to how well you think the markets are going to do... if the markets recover you'll be holding onto a loss (and if you buy physical gold it will be somewhat of a pain to sell, vs gold ETFs or shares in a gold producer). Hoewver, if we sink back into a recession your gold purchaes will be... well, golden :)

[DSM_1]

Why buy from scotia bank with a bigger premium when you can get gold from albern coins.. or apmex

i think there is a dip coming (within the next two months), as well as with silver, which is highly manipulated, then then a nice soar towards 1,300 by the end of the year ..

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by bspot
I think buying gold on the way out of the recession likely isn't the wisest timing.

lol the "way out" :rofl:


Originally posted by DSM_1
Why buy from scotia bank with a bigger premium when you can get gold from albern coins.. or apmex



Albern FTW. I love the feeling of walking out of that store into the ghetto with a paper bag full of gold. It just feels bad ass for some reason. :poosie:


Originally posted by Super_Geo
Depends on if you buy into the whole "USD is going to crash" theory... which I'm still on the fence about.



Why not think of it in terms of Canadian dollars? The chart is still looking pretty good. Canada has a bigger deficit in terms of GDP than the US does (officially anyways). Canada will probably get shit throttled when real estate cools off finally - And when we finally realize that you need more than real estate and oil & gas to make an economy.

In Euros and most other currencies Gold has been skyrocketing.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/gold_CAD.jpg


^^^ Hasn't even gone parabolic yet. No where near an asset bubble. They need to stop printing money before this one crashes. Most of my savings are in physical gold now. The rest is in ammo - which has also appreciated nicely in the last couple of years ;)

[broken_legs]

OH and this too:

http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=11843



$600 Sale? Get Ready for Tax Form
By David L. Ganz, Numismatic News



A blizzard of paperwork could be about to hit numismatics.

Passage by Congress of the national health care legislation has had an unintended consequence to the nation’s coin collectors, vest-pocket dealers who buy and sell coins, and larger dealers who are frequent buyers of coins that collectors periodically liquidate as they trade up their collections for better coins, or simply sell to take a small profit or loss.

What has happened is that effective Jan. 1, 2012, the whole system of giving and receiving Internal Revenue Service 1099 forms will be turned on its head and all persons (including corporations) who are in business will now have to give 1099 tax reporting forms for coins and other goods that they sell as well as buy.

The responsibility for issuing forms kicks in at $600 for coins or bullion – not a very high level and one that has already started sounding alarm bells. It doesn’t matter in what form payment is made, whether cash, check, credit card, or Yap stone money, the $600 threshold applies.


Good ol USA.

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs

In Euros and most other currencies Gold has been skyrocketing.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/gold_CAD.jpg


^^^ Hasn't even gone parabolic yet. No where near an asset bubble. They need to stop printing money before this one crashes. Most of my savings are in physical gold now. The rest is in ammo - which has also appreciated nicely in the last couple of years ;)

Are you suggesting buying gold here is a good idea?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89


Are you suggesting buying gold here is a good idea?


I'm assuming this is a rhetorical question so I'll just wait for whatever it is you have to say.

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs



I'm assuming this is a rhetorical question so I'll just wait for whatever it is you have to say.

No I'm just trying to figure out what you're saying.

Actually I'm also wondering why you think Canada is mostly built upon Real Estate and Oil?? Or maybe that was a joke but I did not find it funny :(


Canada is one of the world's largest suppliers of agricultural products; the Canadian Prairies are one of the most important producers of wheat, canola, and other grains.[166] Canada is the largest producer of zinc and uranium, and is a global source of many other natural resources, such as gold, nickel, aluminium, and lead.[164] Many towns in northern Canada, where agriculture is difficult, are sustainable because of nearby mines or sources of timber. Canada also has a sizable manufacturing sector centred in southern Ontario and Quebec, with automobiles and aeronautics representing particularly important industries.[167]

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89


No I'm just trying to figure out what you're saying.

Actually I'm also wondering why you think Canada is mostly built upon Real Estate and Oil?? Or maybe that was a joke but I did not find it funny :(



Just say it already. You... Think... Its... A Bad... Time... To Buy... Gold...


Ok phew the suspense was killing me. In some other thread you say you pick short time horizons of weeks. Im guessing you think gold will go down due to deflation or perhaps something else?

I'll be buying again when were a bit closer to the 200 DMA. Likely around 1150 CAD/OZ - I'll also continue to buy ammo. ;)

As far as the comment on Real Estate

And when we finally realize that you need more than real estate and oil & gas to make an economy.

I didn't say anything about GDP although I see how you may have got that impression. The comment was aimed at the equity that people are spending into the economy. So many things in our economy are related to house values and interest rates, thats why all of the mortgage bonds that are sold risk free to investors are backed by the full faith of the Canadian tax payers (Thanks CMHC!). IMO, when housing dips suddenly people will realize that RBC lied and they aren't "richer than they think"

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89


No I'm just trying to figure out what you're saying.

Actually I'm also wondering why you think Canada is mostly built upon Real Estate and Oil?? Or maybe that was a joke but I did not find it funny :(



Oh! and one more thing...

http://www.investorsfriend.com/Canadi8.gif


Data Source: Statistics Canada
http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/gdps04a.htm

From reading the financial news you may have been under the strong impression that Canada's GDP is now dominated by the commodities including particularly oil, gas, and various minerals. You may have also heard that manufacturing is no longer such an important component of Canada's economy. (And that therefore we should not worry much about all the manufacturing job losses that we hear about).

The actual figures show that "Finance, insurance and real estate and leasing and management of companies and enterprises" is by far the largest segment of Canada's economy.

[themack89]

I don't plan trades based around multi year horizons, so yes you are right I think it is a bad time to buy gold.

I wasn't trying to prove you wrong or anything, I was merely seeking some education.

That chart is interesting. Yeah I guess real estate + oil alone is about 25% of our GDP, its significant but its not our entire economy. :nut:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89
I don't plan trades based around multi year horizons, so yes you are right I think it is a bad time to buy gold.


I'm not trading gold, I'm saving gold.


Edit:
... wrong link!