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curious_joe
12-06-2010, 06:47 AM
I have a time deposit of US Dollars. Im just wondering if I should change it to CAD. If I should, when is the right time? Suggestions appreciated. Thanks

broken_legs
12-06-2010, 07:09 AM
Originally posted by curious_joe
I have a time deposit of US Dollars. Im just wondering if I should change it to CAD. If I should, when is the right time? Suggestions appreciated. Thanks

Wait.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CAD&to=USD&view=2Y

unless the CAD makes a decisive move past parity, IMO there is a very good chance we go back to 0.9 or lower.

curious_joe
12-07-2010, 05:07 AM
Or should I just leave it that way until I need it?

JBreaks
12-08-2010, 11:15 AM
Originally posted by broken_legs


Wait.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CAD&to=USD&view=2Y

unless the CAD makes a decisive move past parity, IMO there is a very good chance we go back to 0.9 or lower.

Could not disagree more.......
US economy is still very weak. There currency is manufacturing/commerce/industry dependent and is very unlikely to show any resurgence untill the over all economy is definitively strengthening.

Meanwhile $CND price is massively dependent on natural resources... which are priced in American dollars on the exchange.. thus you have a situation where depreciation in $USD put upward pressure on $CND price. Also, just yesterday bank of canada declined the opportunity to raise interest rates (a bullish move for $CND), which is a move to intentionally sustain or depress current $CND price with the aim of hopefully keeping Canadian goods/gas flowing south. Although this strategy also allows for increased domestic credit/barrowing.. potentially leading to a real estate boom or bubble further down the road.

IMO a good move would be to leave your $ in CND or convert to AUS$ (base metal, natural resource play). Sounds like this option or what ever that you have is a CND/USD only deal tho... if thats the case you may want to wait this one out long term.

Did you use $CND to buy a USD$ deposit? what exchange rate was the deposit?

broken_legs
12-09-2010, 04:15 AM
Originally posted by JBreaks


Could not disagree more.......
US economy is still very weak. There currency is manufacturing/commerce/industry dependent and is very unlikely to show any resurgence untill the over all economy is definitively strengthening.

Meanwhile $CND price is massively dependent on natural resources... which are priced in American dollars on the exchange.. thus you have a situation where depreciation in $USD put upward pressure on $CND price. Also, just yesterday bank of canada declined the opportunity to raise interest rates (a bullish move for $CND), which is a move to intentionally sustain or depress current $CND price with the aim of hopefully keeping Canadian goods/gas flowing south. Although this strategy also allows for increased domestic credit/barrowing.. potentially leading to a real estate boom or bubble further down the road.

IMO a good move would be to leave your $ in CND or convert to AUS$ (base metal, natural resource play). Sounds like this option or what ever that you have is a CND/USD only deal tho... if thats the case you may want to wait this one out long term.

Did you use $CND to buy a USD$ deposit? what exchange rate was the deposit?

I don't understand how the BoC leaving rates low is bullish, thats a clear sign they are trying to stop CAD appreciation.

The same weakness you see in the US is hurting consumption of Canadian exports. Trade deficit etc... (so is the high dollar)

The BoC will make comments and take actions totry and suppress the value of the dollar.

If The EuroZone gets flushed down the toilet (highly likely IMO) then there will be a massive flight to safety in USD. If the stock market stops its moon shot even for a moment, there will be USD appreciation against all currencies, if we have any type of debt related deflation there will be appreciation in the USD.

There is massive resistance at parity for the CAD. - just look at the chart. Were in a kind of wedge, either it will sit at parity or make higher highs or higher lows. Look at the CAD before the stock market crash when oil and commodities were surging last time. It went straight through parity - Commodities are surging again yet we cant break parity


Finally - to the OP:

You're already going to come out with less money in CAD than what you have in USD due to exchange comissions and what not. It's either going to get worse or going to get better. Just wait and see what happens, either youre going to come out with a couple percent less (if we break over parity) or your going to come out even and make something on the exchange (if the Euro crashes and the stock market starts to unravel)

JBreaks
12-09-2010, 09:04 AM
The US is not the only consumer of natural resources, and is quickly losing their #1 customer status in Canada to the Chinese.

Like commodities, US stocks have been rising (a moon shot.... if you will) on the rapid depreciation of $US. They will continue to receive high valuation unless the $US rises for legitimate reason... aka: economic recovery.

So with record unemployment, massive quant-easing, further loose monetary policy all causing havoc for the american economy..... I haven't heard of any contrarians willing to buy the $US as of yet.