2011 - Market Bull or Bear

[davidI]

This article made me consider where I think the market is heading - http://www.cnbc.com/id/40725902

Predicitions for 2011 anyone?

My personal expectation is that a correction is still due. US unemployment is still high, their debt is increasing and several EU countries are still in rough shape. I'm a bit of a contrarion and at the moment, everyone seems bullish so I am quite bearish.

The S&P 500 large cap index has almost reached August '08 levels and I really can't see the fundamentals supporting much more of a run.

That said, I've been sitting on the sidelines for 4 months and have lost out on considerable gains had I stuck with it. I plan to get back to swing trading in early 2011 and wait for a pull back before entering any long-term positions.

[revelations]

I dont really see a "huge" correction, but I can see 1000 pts coming off the TSX composite though, just my feeling.....13200 -> 12200 .

Last time this happened was beginning of July.

[max_boost]

Which is why you buy HIX or HXD (2X leverage) to go inverse to the TSX haha

Now's that a fun game, up or down. I'm pissed I missed out on the run from 12000 to 13300 so I'm in for the ride from 13,300 to 12,000 haha

Personally, come the new year the market is going to correct. China raising interest rates 2-3X will be inevitable.

[revelations]

Was looking around various TSX sector indecies last night (other reasons) and noticed that yes, since Sept there has been a steady climb.

So ya, I'd expect something similar to what happened in Jan of this year (1000pt drop) to repeat itself shortly (as history invariably does) after the holidays are over and kids are back in school.

One index, (TSX S&P 500 above 200MA) shows that 430 out of 500 stocks are trading above the line.... which means that its probably time to short/inverse pretty soon like Max_Boost stated.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98758481914