take advantage of the coming recovery - suggest Investments

[ExtraSlow]

This is a "what should I invest in" thread with a twist.

Given that we've seen some serious declines in the markets over the last six months (20% and more), obviously, the recovery will happen at some point.

Anyone with any cash should be thinking of finding an entry point to the market to take advantage of that recovery.

One of the obvious places to invest would be the energy sector, which is strongly tied to the global economy and which has declines more than the broader market (35%)
BUT, most people in Calgary have a large portion of thier net worth, and future earning potential, tied to the energy industry.

Is there an equity class that is poised to recover strongly that ISN'T energy related or directly correlated to energy? Obviously, some correlation is unavoidable, given the constraints.

Financial services? Metals? Consumer products? Technology?

Let's hear your "ready for the recovery" strategies!

Feel free to "call the bottom" as well. Myself, I'm still thinking we've got a couple weeks of pain left.

[Zewind]

There are 2 type of money.

Play money and Serious money.

Play money - doesnt matter what happens, gain or loss. Maybe a few thousand dollars. You would have better with lottery tickets. Which, btw has anyone on beyond won more than 10k?


Serious Money - Retirement, Downpayment for a house. This is where it hurts when the markets lose value. Now remember its not a loss unless you sell it at a loss. Right now everything is on sale, get a well balanced portfolio and increase your contributions.

I love this kind of thing because its my job.

[revelations]

Short the market in day trades or buy into an inverse ETF.

Were on a long ride down the next few months.

[max_boost]

I think we are going to have a lot longer pain than a couple more weeks. I've been sitting on cash for awhile. A couple trades here and there but nothing serious. I'm not going for the recovery until I see a massive shakeup 08/09 styles.

Bottom? Bring on <8000 TSX. haha

[Meback]

I d say monday we will be having an "up" day!!

[89coupe]

Recovery? LOL

We are about to partake in the worst recession the world has ever seen.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 89coupe
Recovery? LOL

We are about to partake in the worst recession the world has ever seen.

Oh snap 89 is BACK!

You joking or serious with your comment? I can't tell for sure lol :confused: :drama:

[davidI]

I would think he's serious. My gut is the same. I've got a whole bunch of cash to pile into the markets but I'm just waiting for the right time. I expect some serious stagflation in the future and I have no idea how to trade that. Maybe just try to suck up dividends from companies with strong balance sheets and inelastic supply/demand curves (utilities? infrastructure?).

The Fed has tried all their tricks... no matter what they say. The truth is, we're going to suffer for a while due to the last few decades of over-spending. That means governments, companies, and people. You can't keep just keep borrowing and borrowing to cover your payments...eventually you go bankrupt. The world has changed and developed countries need to figure out what their economies are actually made of....

I'm not too concerned about finding work but I'm planning an 18 month trip for when I lose my job just the same...


Whenever the talking heads on TV start talking about the national economy, most of our eyes start to glaze over. The gigantic numbers that they throw out there are ridiculous; most Americans have no idea what those numbers mean in practical terms. So, I thought it’d be fun to turn those figures into something we can understand a little better—like a household budget.

The federal government will take in $2.173 trillion in 2011. That’s their income, and it sounds pretty good. Until, that is, you factor in that the federal government will spend $3.818 trillion during the year. So, just like many families, the government’s outgo exceeds their income—to the tune of $1.645 trillion in overspending. That’s called the deficit. Altogether, the government has $14.2 trillion in debt.

What would happen if John Q. Public and his wife called my show with these kinds of numbers? Here’s how their financial situation would stack up:

If their household income was $55,000 per year, they’d actually be spending $96,500—$41,500 more than they made! That means they’re spending 175% of their annual income! So, in 2011 they’d add $41,500 of debt to their current credit card debt of $366,000!

What’s the first step to get out of debt? Stop overspending! But that means a family that is used to spending $96,500 a year has to learn how to live on $55,000. That’s a tough pill to swallow. Those kinds of spending cuts seriously hurt, but it’s the only way out of debt for John Q. Public.

If I ever got a call from a family that was spending $41,500 more than they made every year, you would definitely expect me to yell at them for their dumb behavior, right? Kids, no more McDonald’s four times a week. Snacks come from the grocery store now. And we’re not going to the movies for a while, so break out the board games and TV Guide. This family has a problem, so it’s time to amputate the lifestyle!

It works the same way for the government. You can’t borrow your way out of debt, whether you’re a typical American family or the entire U.S. government. At some point, you’ve got to say, “Enough is enough!” and make the hard cuts necessary to win over the long haul.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by 89coupe
Recovery? LOL

We are about to partake in the worst recession the world has ever seen.

How is this bullish for Calgary Real Estate?

[ExtraSlow]

Interesting. This isn't the direction I was thinking of, but let's run with it.

So, governments across the world spend more than they earn. At some point, this means bad things for their economies. If the economy of Greece, Spain, Portugal and the USA all have these bad things happen at once, what does it mean for the rest of the developed world? What does it mean for Canada, a country that largely relies on commodity exports for it's wealth?

Is this when we finally see the BRICS countries take over leadership roles in the world economy? Does the demographic time bomb of underemployed youth in the middle east finally explode?


If you think the markets have a long way to fall, you could short them. What other investments do well in a falling market?

[ExtraSlow]

Anyway, inverse ETF's aren't for me, I'm an optimist, and I can't see myself shorting a market that's lost ~20%.

[davidI]

Sorry, I didn't mean to throw your thread off direction.

Truth is, the world is fucked at the moment. China's PMI took a walloping, Brazils currency has recently been shit-kicked, and a lot of what the BRICs have going for them is sending products & energy to the developed world. Lately, the world's largest developed economies (US, EU) have needed the BRICs to support the global economy, while the BRICs have needed the developed world to continue buying to keep their growth on track.

The Fed has basically been trying to stimulate the economy by keeping spending up. The problem is, they are advocating spending and saving at the same time. Governments have been wanting banks and people to store up capital so they don't bankrupt, while also encouraging borrowing and spending to spur the economy. Same problem in government - spend money to grow the economy while limiting spending to reduce the deficit. It's impossible to do both and people / governments are finally running out of steam. With interest rates kept to an artificial low the last 2 years a lot of people have been buying homes, borrowing money etc. Unfortunately, people are pretty much borrowed out and this trend can't continue. Meanwhile, businesses have been worried about this second dip and have been bulking up their balance sheets to weather the storm. This means less hiring and less spending which stalls out the economy. Banks, though being encouraged to lend, have also been subject to increased capital requirements on their balance sheets so it's another catch 22. We (the government) want you to lend (spend) and save at the same time. I think we're fucked. I'd really like to find the time to do more research into what Japan has gone through over the last decade in their stagflation environment as I think that's what we'll be in for.

Now, back to your question. The asset classes that tend to do well in down turns are staples and things that would appeal to people in a down economy. Think cigarettes, drinking, McDonalds, Wal-Mart type shit.

My comments about dividend utilities / infrastructure stocks also hold true.

Buffet was a big fan of railways after the 08 recession as it's a good indicator of when the economy is picking back up (shipments are a good indication of sales and projects).

The real answer to your question really depends on your investment mentality though. Are you a trader or a long-term investor? How long are you willing to weather the storm?

For me, I may play a few shorts, and when I see signs of recovery put a percentage of my portfolio into longer term utilities / blue chips that will continue to have a business no matter how bad things get and use the other parts of my portfolio for trading high risk, high growth shit, trying to catch a recovery.

In short, if things really do shit the bed, which I think they will, but not for another 6-12 months (companies still have strong balance sheets), I think we're going to be in for a pretty flat market for 5-10 years.

My best investment will probably be Mandarin lessons (see my travel thread about going to China)

[bigbadboss101]

So say I have a good sum of $ in mutual funds, it's worth taking the hit (penalty and fees) to pull $ out and sit on cash or something safe but steady? Over the long run dollar cost averaging would make things look ok but I am not sure I want to ride the next couple waves of 15% hit.

[davidI]

When it comes to mutual funds, my recommendation is to just let 'em ride. In my mind, they're a long-term hold and you're already too late to sell them. If you wanted to cash them in and invest in certain ETFs or indexes for the long-term, and continue to invest on a monthly basis, that may allow you a bit more control. I've been in a cash position in my stock portfolio for most of the year but have just let my pension plan mutual funds just ride the wave.


That actually brings up another big concern for our generation though. If there is another big dip it could completely fuck up the boomers who have retired, or are eager to retired. Could make it very difficult for Gen Y to make it up the food chain or find jobs in the years to come. In a world where developed countries need to focus on Innovation, inhibiting the younger generation could further inhibit economic growth in the US/Canada/EU.

[benyl]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow

So, governments across the world spend more than they earn. At some point, this means bad things for their economies. If the economy of Greece, Spain, Portugal and the USA all have these bad things happen at once, what does it mean for the rest of the developed world? What does it mean for Canada, a country that largely relies on commodity exports for it's wealth?


The problem for Canada isn't really in the export sector. It is in the banking sector. If Greece goes bankrupt, you will see many European banks fail, in turn, Canadian banks that lend to those Euro banks will lose a lot of money or possibly fail.



Here is some food for thought. I was in LA last week talking to my cousin about job prospects there and he mentioned that there was a lot of outsourcing going on.

Then I thought, companies that outsource to other economies only screw themselves. Think about it. If I have a service that I provide to Canadians, but use South East Asians to provide that service, I take money from Canadians and give it to SEA. Those SEAs, then spend the money in SEA and invest in that country.

If however, I employed Canadians, they would take that money and spend it in Canada which would allow others to then spend money on my service. Go figure.

The issue is that shareholders have too much power / demand too much. They want big profit margins to the detriment of society in general. Imagine if the US continued to manufacture goods. I doubt they would be in the shithole they are now. My opinion anyway.

[Cos]

Originally posted by benyl

The issue is that shareholders have too much power / demand too much. They want big profit margins to the detriment of society in general. Imagine if the US continued to manufacture goods. I doubt they would be in the shithole they are now. My opinion anyway.

http://www.marcgrant.ca/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/slow-clap-my-friend-slow-clap.gif

It may be your opinion but I think it is damned accurate. Only way I can figure out to fix it is to become a shareholder with power.

I hope one day to have enough money in investments that I dont have to work. I really need to stop spending money if I want to do that.

[davidI]

Originally posted by benyl

Then I thought, companies that outsource to other economies only screw themselves. Think about it. If I have a service that I provide to Canadians, but use South East Asians to provide that service, I take money from Canadians and give it to SEA. Those SEAs, then spend the money in SEA and invest in that country.

If however, I employed Canadians, they would take that money and spend it in Canada which would allow others to then spend money on my service. Go figure.

The issue is that shareholders have too much power / demand too much. They want big profit margins to the detriment of society in general. Imagine if the US continued to manufacture goods. I doubt they would be in the shithole they are now. My opinion anyway.



Originally posted by Cos

It may be your opinion but I think it is damned accurate. Only way I can figure out to fix it is to become a shareholder with power.

I hope one day to have enough money in investments that I dont have to work. I really need to stop spending money if I want to do that.

So basically you're saying capitalism doesn't work? The only reason companies outsource is to save money, increase profit margins, make money for their shareholders.

How do you hope to live off of investments in companies that are not trying to make profits?

What's your solution?

The whole reason manufacturing / labour has been outsourced is so that consumers can buy shit for cheaper. Generally, that's what you want. Cheaper cars, clothes, buildings, computers etc.

[benyl]

Originally posted by davidI

The whole reason manufacturing / labour has been outsourced is so that consumers can buy shit for cheaper. Generally, that's what you want. Cheaper cars, clothes, buildings, computers etc.

The poor get poorer and the rich get richer.

So if the people who buy those products don't have jobs to buy said products because they have been outsourced to another country, then what? Your investment in the company will get screwed that way too.

Pure capitalism doesn't work and will never work for one reason. Human greed.

This is evidenced by the bucket shops in the early 1900s and the recent derivative issues in 2008. I believe there are still a lot of derivatives out there that could still cause issues. Greenspan though people were smarter now than they were a century ago. He forgot to take greed into account.

How is it that CEOs are rewarded for allowing their companies to fail? Is that what capitalism has become? Don't get me wrong, I am not a socialist by any means, but what the world is doing now is not working either.

:hijack: I moving most of my stuff into cash, but even that isn't safe. Look at the CDN$, it was dropped like it was hot.

[89coupe]

Originally posted by max_boost


Oh snap 89 is BACK!

You joking or serious with your comment? I can't tell for sure lol :confused: :drama:

I was never gone, just not as active ;)

...and yes, I'm serious. The world is in a very fragile state right now. I'm too lazy to get into the details.

[Chandler_Racing]

Originally posted by max_boost
I think we are going to have a lot longer pain than a couple more weeks. I've been sitting on cash for awhile. A couple trades here and there but nothing serious. I'm not going for the recovery until I see a massive shakeup 08/09 styles.

Bottom? Bring on &lt;8000 TSX. haha

Agreed, I'm sitting on cash.

Not sure about an 8,000 TSX but that would be a great buying opportunity.

[Cos]

Originally posted by davidI





So basically you're saying capitalism doesn't work? The only reason companies outsource is to save money, increase profit margins, make money for their shareholders.


Im not saying it doesnt work. I am just saying you pretty much have to become a stock holder.

[Rat Fink]

.

[RickDaTuner]

Originally posted by revelations
Short the market in day trades or buy into an inverse ETF.

Were on a long ride down the next few months.
:werd:

Shorting gold for the next 5-10 years will net you some extremely healthy income, with the right capital investment of course. It will be more than enough to happily retire on.

[max_boost]

The profit motive was supposed to be good for us!

Capitalism: A Love Story

I actually watched this a few weeks ago.

[max_boost]

www.zerohedge.com
www.boombustblog.com

Nice to see broken_legs back as well.

:devil:

[ragu]

I am pretty sure we're in for some deep shit, how bad will be its affects in Calgary, I am not sure of.

I've been sitting on lots of cash for a while now and none of the investments make sense anymore and as far as banks go, I think the affects of securitizations were far more stretched than what we felt in 2008.

So, as the US$ went up, CDN$ came down, I think the after affects are gonna be higher inflation rates in China, India etc. Now most of the real estate in these countries is owned by individuals 100% i.e. no mortgages. Wouldn't it work fine if you buy real estate in any of those countries/ South America and with inflation, your investment gains as well? The risk there is fx only?

^Any comments or criticism?

[bitteeinbit]

Lot's of bears around here. I'm definitely worried but doubt it will be the "worst recession ever" or something like that. Governments have definitely too slow (not just US and EURO, think Japan!) in reacting so things could get ugly. I've lost some faith in the stock market but I'm unsure what to short (though two recent calls I've had would have made me a fortune). Let's just say I'm negative short-term but not crazy scared or worried. the day the economy makes me lose sleep is the day I pull completely out.

In 08 I didn't give a rats ass: government job, living outside the country, who the fuck cares? Now I have some money in the stock market via mutual funds and stocks so I'm more worried, but I'm keeping it mostly cash now for the very reason that I don't want to fret all the time over how my money is doing.

[davidI]

Just how bad have things been at the consumer level? Hedge fund guru Eric Sprott said the single-most important economic indicator of the past four months came from Wal-Mart chief executive Mike Duke, who literally said that his customers were “running out of money” much faster than they were a year ago. His evidence: customers are doing their bulk shopping at the beginning of every month (minutes after cashing their paycheques) and business drops off right after that.

“People’s incomes haven’t been going up, but their costs have,” Mr. Sprott said. “It’s palpable what’s happening, and it’s not good.”

His favourite “negative” indicators include U.S. bank failures (which increase every week) and over-leverage in the banking system (a huge problem in Europe). But the lesson of the past few weeks is that any investor can find a negative indicator to suit his or her taste right now.


http://business.financialpost.com/2011/09/23/reading-the-market-tea-leaves/

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by max_boost
www.zerohedge.com
www.boombustblog.com

Nice to see broken_legs back as well.

:devil:

Just finished a month of snowboarding in South America. :) Didn't have much time to post but I still found time to read beyond once in a while.

Also did a little shopping before and after my holiday.

Funny cause there was a 4 hour lineup for people selling gold and silver that day. Aug 24-25? as a buyer I didnt have to wait at all. I'm pretty sure im in the background on an ABC News story on the price of gold. They were interviewing some white trash woman who just sold all of her family jewels for about 1200$ after waiting in line for 4 hours.


Then I went back again on last friday when silver puked. I was the only white guy there, no sellers anywhere and a massive lineup of Asians buying silver and gold.

The funny thing is that they don't accept Credit Cards and everyone has a limit on their debit cards. So myself, and everyone else were all paying in what small amount of our own money our banks were gracious enough to let us have through the ATM, and certified cheques and all sorts of other nonsense.

Really drives home the point that banks wont let you have your own money.

[Cos]

I heard a good comment on 660 when driving around. The guy said that everyone blames the millionaires for the problem in the us.

Is it really the guy who made millions of dollars and bought everything with cash who is the problem? Or is it the guy who bought the boat, tv, and car he couldn't afford on credit.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Cos]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


I think its the millionaires who look so damn good with all their shit that the poor people have to try to keep up somehow! :rofl:

I blame reality TV...... actually. For a long time I think lots of people thought you could move to California or NY, have a menial job, and have a $7000 a month apartment somehow and a convertible jeep.

Now with easy credit everyone could do it.

[HiTempguy1]

Originally posted by Cos

Is it really the guy who made millions of dollars and bought everything with cash who is the problem?

Personally, I feel it is that person who is the problem, but not for the reason you state.

With the focus of companies/corporations on short term stock gains for their shareholders, and the increasing amount of disparity in regards to how much money the "richest" people on earth have versus everyone else, it seems to me that the richest people can manipulate the market as they see fit by buying and selling massive amounts of whatever they want.

The game is rigged, only way to escape it is to not play :( Had a sobering conversation with my father today (tail end of the baby boomer generation, turns 50 next year). It ain't looking good.

[benyl]

Originally posted by Cos


I blame reality TV...... actually. For a long time I think lots of people thought you could move to California or NY, have a menial job, and have a $7000 a month apartment somehow and a convertible jeep.

Now with easy credit everyone could do it.

Easy credit is the problem.

Home ownership is not for everyone, but the politicians in Canada and the US made it possible through Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac and CMHC.

When I was younger, there wasn't reality TV, it was "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" with Robin Leech.

[dawerks]

The stock market quadrupled in the 30's. Stocks are up over 100% in 2 years. YEAH, WAY to SIT ON THE SIDELINES!

I'm super happy with my returns. Same thing happened at the start of the decade.

If you can't play both sides of the market short/long, then you should NOT be 'investing'. The easy/safe way is to be able to be fluid and not adopt any dogma.

Just a little while ago I was gold bearish (along with Warren Buffet), but now it got it's teeth kicked in, I'm gold bullish. Things change, adapt or put your head in the sand.

I made money on upside and downside of the market this summer and I hardly ever trade Apr to Nov. (See, can't be dogmatic about rules!).

[ExtraSlow]

One of the analyists I follow referred to the Berkshire Hathaway share buyback program as Warren Buffet's way of "calling the bottom."

Myself, I'm not letting this two day rally freak me out. I'm readying myself to make a move, and waiting.

[Cos]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
One of the analyists I follow referred to the Berkshire Hathaway share buyback program as Warren Buffet's way of &quot;calling the bottom.&quot;

Myself, I'm not letting this two day rally freak me out. I'm readying myself to make a move, and waiting.

Link to the analyst? I would like to read that.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ZenOps]

Companies that own the city to city internet fiber optic lines?

Bandwidth is like water nowadays - people can't live without it.

Bell has weathered this latest crash extremely well, and they pay a dividend.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by Cos

Link to the analyst? I would like to read that.
One of the private client guys at FirstEnergy. No link.

Bell is a solid company, but I'd say it's not going to profit especially well from an economic recovery. I think that one is a slow and steady kind of investment. The Dividend yield is pretty attractive.

[ZenOps]

If there is a recovery, I'm thinking its going to be a really slow dragged out process (at least one decade) Many of the big players have positioned their money for this.

So it may mean a return to blue chip. The Billionaires are happy with 3 to 6% right now.

[RickDaTuner]

Originally posted by ZenOps
If there is a recovery, I'm thinking its going to be a really slow dragged out process (at least one decade) Many of the big players have positioned their money for this.

So it may mean a return to blue chip. The Billionaires are happy with 3 to 6% right now.

As soon as the EU, and US markets stabilize the recovery will begin, and then the move from metals to everything else will commence. No need to panic, Let them all crash, the harder the better.

Honestly I believe we are on the brink of the biggest financial recovery the world has, and may ever see. The last recession in the 90 left the door open for many small time investors to hit stock lotteries. Penny stocks grew to $10s even some to $100s and in my understanding this recovery will be even more aggressive. Every Tom, Dick, and Harry will fight for the spot to be investing in the next bubble, which in turn will drive stock prices up.
We as a world are in place for the next phase of alternative energy, new medical advancement, and many tech developments also.

I myself don't claim to be a investor guru, but its pretty clear what is happening in the world and what is yet to come.
The fact of the matter is once you hit rock bottom, there is only one way to go, and that's up.

It's a really good time for all those that want to learn to invest to get involved, as the markets will allow for some mistakes to be made with the potential to recover easily.
So all of you Financial Lurkers out there;(such as myself) its time time to study up on investment, and market literature!

Maybe I'm way off base, but those are my two cents

[dimi]

Originally posted by RickDaTuner


As soon as the EU, and US markets stabilize the recovery will begin, and then the move from metals to everything else will commence. No need to panic, Let them all crash, the harder the better.

Honestly I believe we are on the brink of the biggest financial recovery the world has, and may ever see. The last recession in the 90 left the door open for many small time investors to hit stock lotteries. Penny stocks grew to $10s even some to $100s and in my understanding this recovery will be even more aggressive. Every Tom, Dick, and Harry will fight for the spot to be investing in the next bubble, which in turn will drive stock prices up.
We as a world are in place for the next phase of alternative energy, new medical advancement, and many tech developments also.

I myself don't claim to be a investor guru, but its pretty clear what is happening in the world and what is yet to come.
The fact of the matter is once you hit rock bottom, there is only one way to go, and that's up.

It's a really good time for all those that want to learn to invest to get involved, as the markets will allow for some mistakes to be made with the potential to recover easily.
So all of you Financial Lurkers out there;(such as myself) its time time to study up on investment, and market literature!

Maybe I'm way off base, but those are my two cents

Well I'll add my 2cents too. Bear in mind I am on T3s cause I just fractured my arm, so my arguments might not be the most coherent.

First of all, why the hate on metals? Would you rather hold a paper currency that is prone to manipulation? No, gold is not the perfect reserve currency, but it is far better than a paper currency that can appear out of thin air. The harder they crash the better? Why?

You speak of investing in the stock market. I commend you as it is a valiant idea. However, I assume you know what HFT algorithms are? Do you know what portion of everyday volume is generated by those? That is who you are up against. Trust me, you have no chance.

I also disagree with stabilizing markets. If the underlying problems of the EU are addressed the markets will be stable. They are not being addressed. Its just a front that is being put up to mask the real problems.

The EU is a flawed concept IMO. How can you have member states some of which are economically thriving, others in absolute despair, sharing the same currency? Its a model where some countries will be mooching off the others perpetually. Greece will default sooner or later. A bailout fund...what a joke. How is a bailout for Greece going to do anything but kick the can down the road? Do we bail them out next year as well? I see no way Greece will ever balance its budget. You've seen the riots down there, a war breaking out is much more likely scenario.

The US is in a shit situation too. ZIRP/easy credit is a very bad idea and has lead to a lot of malinvestment. You have billionaires like Buffett telling politicians what to do. You have the whole market looking at one guy on a FOMC day. You have losing/bankrupt banks being rewarded and their CEOs getting record bonuses. You have a huge disparity between the rich and poor.

China supposedly has a big real estate bubble, but I don't know much about China.

I mean I just fail to see anything positive. I wouldn't go as far as saying the worst ever recession, but a recession indeed.

[RickDaTuner]

Originally posted by dimi


Well I'll add my 2cents too. Bear in mind I am on T3s cause I just fractured my arm, so my arguments might not be the most coherent.

First of all, why the hate on metals? Would you rather hold a paper currency that is prone to manipulation? No, gold is not the perfect reserve currency, but it is far better than a paper currency that can appear out of thin air. The harder they crash the better? Why?

You speak of investing in the stock market. I commend you as it is a valiant idea. However, I assume you know what HFT algorithms are? Do you know what portion of everyday volume is generated by those? That is who you are up against. Trust me, you have no chance.

I also disagree with stabilizing markets. If the underlying problems of the EU are addressed the markets will be stable. They are not being addressed. Its just a front that is being put up to mask the real problems.

The EU is a flawed concept IMO. How can you have member states some of which are economically thriving, others in absolute despair, sharing the same currency? Its a model where some countries will be mooching off the others perpetually. Greece will default sooner or later. A bailout fund...what a joke. How is a bailout for Greece going to do anything but kick the can down the road? Do we bail them out next year as well? I see no way Greece will ever balance its budget. You've seen the riots down there, a war breaking out is much more likely scenario.

The US is in a shit situation too. ZIRP/easy credit is a very bad idea and has lead to a lot of malinvestment. You have billionaires like Buffett telling politicians what to do. You have the whole market looking at one guy on a FOMC day. You have losing/bankrupt banks being rewarded and their CEOs getting record bonuses. You have a huge disparity between the rich and poor.

China supposedly has a big real estate bubble, but I don't know much about China.

I mean I just fail to see anything positive. I wouldn't go as far as saying the worst ever recession, but a recession indeed.

I think you are missing my point. What I am mentioning is not for current times, its a self assessed projection for things to come.

Most investors took their money from stocks into metals, so as to keep it some what recession proof.
Whats going to happen in the next 5 or so years to the price of gold when markets are able to gain points again?

All those investors saving their investing credits in gold will move them from metals to stocks again.
The price of metals will be dropping like flies in order for investors to gather their capital for the next rising stock, well the smart ones will. I suggested earlier in this thread to short gold over the next few years, and this would be that time where huge gains will be had.

Our markets will not continue on like this for ever.
There will be a time when things cool off and level out, and that is the point when you should get aggressive in stock investment.

It's been said here before, that good investors will ride the market up and down through what ever it may bring and turn a profit.

My point is that we should prepare ourselves for the next boom phase, because opportunity for success will be everywhere.

If anyone wants some practice trading in the markets they should look into Day Trading FOREX.
$300 into an account will teach you how to react to changing markets, when to invest and how spot the trends, shorting and buying won't be so intimidating and you will start to see the need to ride the market up and down.
Its all very fast paced and you could see anywhere from 10 to 100 trades in one day.
Then when it comes time to trade long term, you'll be better prepared to tackle the bigger investments.

:thumbsup:

[BoostinAround]

Originally posted by RickDaTuner


I think you are missing my point. What I am mentioning is not for current times, its a self assessed projection for things to come.

Most investors took their money from stocks into metals, so as to keep it some what recession proof.
Whats going to happen in the next 5 or so years to the price of gold when markets are able to gain points again?

All those investors saving their investing credits in gold will move them from metals to stocks again.
The price of metals will be dropping like flies in order for investors to gather their capital for the next rising stock, well the smart ones will. I suggested earlier in this thread to short gold over the next few years, and this would be that time where huge gains will be had.

Our markets will not continue on like this for ever.
There will be a time when things cool off and level out, and that is the point when you should get aggressive in stock investment.

It's been said here before, that good investors will ride the market up and down through what ever it may bring and turn a profit.

My point is that we should prepare ourselves for the next boom phase, because opportunity for success will be everywhere.

If anyone wants some practice trading in the markets they should look into Day Trading FOREX.
$300 into an account will teach you how to react to changing markets, when to invest and how spot the trends, shorting and buying won't be so intimidating and you will start to see the need to ride the market up and down.
Its all very fast paced and you could see anywhere from 10 to 100 trades in one day.
Then when it comes time to trade long term, you'll be better prepared to tackle the bigger investments.

:thumbsup:

I think it should be the opposite. Get out of the market and into the metals...Short the market right now. Money printing does not solve money problems for the U.S.

And governments giving banks bailouts that they count as profits wont last forever. I basically agree with the first 4 paragraphs of your statement, but that when you put stocks insert metals and vise versa.

The stock market is over valued and we will be seeing some nasty 7000 DOW ranges again soon.

[RickDaTuner]

Originally posted by BoostinAround


I think it should be the opposite. Get out of the market and into the metals...Short the market right now. Money printing does not solve money problems for the U.S.

And governments giving banks bailouts that they count as profits wont last forever. I basically agree with the first 4 paragraphs of your statement, but that when you put stocks insert metals and vise versa.

The stock market is over valued and we will be seeing some nasty 7000 DOW ranges again soon.

Again I whole heartedly agree with you guys for whats happening right now.

I suppose I never premised my post very well.

But what I am referring will be relevant when the US and the EU find a functional and permanent solution to their financial crisis, that or everything crashes and we are forced to start from scratch. This is why I say, "let them crash", and the lower they go, the more room they will have to get back to normal.

[dimi]

Originally posted by RickDaTuner

But what I am referring will be relevant when the US and the EU find a functional and permanent solution to their financial crisis, that or everything crashes and we are forced to start from scratch. This is why I say, &quot;let them crash&quot;, and the lower they go, the more room they will have to get back to normal.

I don't think there is a solution to the EU as it sits currently. Either some members leave or it dissolves and the member states go back to their currencies. As you can see this morning the German parliament approved a bailout fund to "promote stability", so again trying to kick the can down the road. Bailing out broke nations that will never produce a surplus or a balance budget IS NOT stability, but these fucking lunatics just won't let go of their far fetched dreams.

The same goes for the US. What happened when everything crashed in 2008? Bailouts, stimuls/printing, tax credits to spur housing. And where are we today? The exact same place... Banks are bigger and more toxic than ever, and all economic indicators are shit.

I do agree that everything should be left to crash and from there we can rebuild and have a good economic cycle. However the people in charge will try everything in their power to prevent the natural bust cycle from occuring. They will destroy their currency before they let things deflate. Hence why I think shorting gold might not be the best idea in the next few years.

[benyl]

I just wonder how all those people who bought Gold at $1900 feel today...

[-relk-]

Originally posted by benyl
I just wonder how all those people who bought Gold at $1900 feel today...

15% less wealthy :rolleyes:

[benyl]

Thanks for your insight.

There were a bunch of people on the news who were saying that they felt more secure buying gold than holding cash.

cash FTW.

[e31]

Other than investing in my own business, my second largest investment lately has been put into guns & pitchforks. They are doing gangbusters lately!

[89coupe]

aC19fEqR5bA

[ExtraSlow]

Hell, if this trend keeps up, I'll just average down on PBN.

It may be a dog, but it's worth more than zero.
Of course, that's exactly what I said for TRE . . . . . .
:nut:

[Beerking]

Originally posted by RickDaTuner


Again I whole heartedly agree with you guys for whats happening right now.

I suppose I never premised my post very well.

But what I am referring will be relevant when the US and the EU find a functional and permanent solution to their financial crisis, that or everything crashes and we are forced to start from scratch. This is why I say, &quot;let them crash&quot;, and the lower they go, the more room they will have to get back to normal.

LOL, normal?

This is the new normal. The only way things can start to 'recover' is when we hit bottom. We have a long way to go. Europe will crash and burn and the USA will follow suit. To think we will have a soft landing or just avoid catastrophe is absurd.

But you are right about one thing, once we do finally finish the Greater Depression, if you were able to time right and buy low....well then you will be A-Ok. Just when and how long are we away?

Right now nothing is safe to invest in, and if you have been trying to short this market you probably lost your shirt....we are seeing intraday swings of 3,4,5 even 6%, frick I mean one day its about 3%, next its down 4%. Margin calls, they're a bitch.

[ragu]

There's no avoiding recession/ depression. Greece taking loans at around 20% isn't gonna help and eventually they'll have to pay up by cutting taxes, jobs and eventually slowing its economy further. Hence, defaulting on its loans and taking Italy and Germany down with it.

I am not sure why people blame borrowing over and over again because mortgage backed securitizations, immense greed and poor governing policies were the major cause.

As far as taxing people like Buffet or Gates goes, they're not the ones creating jobs but small businesses to which lending has been really slow!

He's probably right about US bonds being the safest and probably US currency as well.

[89coupe]

The latest...

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/30/news/economy/double_dip_recession/index.htm?iid=Lead

[lint]

Originally posted by 89coupe
The latest...

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/30/news/economy/double_dip_recession/index.htm?iid=Lead

but are (new) home sales in calgary still forecast to rise 10%?

[89coupe]

Originally posted by lint


but are (new) home sales in calgary still forecast to rise 10%?

They did already.

[benyl]

Originally posted by lint


but are (new) home sales in calgary still forecast to rise 10%?

Damn, I hope so!

[ExtraSlow]

If that article is correct, I guess the best investment is cash.

Hmmm.

[89coupe]

Originally posted by benyl


Damn, I hope so!

LOL, why? You plan on selling your mansion in the near future?

[lint]

Originally posted by 89coupe
They did already.

source?

[benyl]

Originally posted by 89coupe


LOL, why? You plan on selling your mansion in the near future?

You mean shanty.

If it goes up, I can take out a HELOC on the increased value and spend it to keep the economy going... lol

[OriginalGoods]

+1 on the worst recession coming up for sure .

[89coupe]

It's started
http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/

[benyl]

is the sky falling?

[89coupe]

Originally posted by benyl
is the sky falling?

I have a roof over my head, I can't tell.

[Redlyne_mr2]

Meanwhile the parking stalls at chinook mall remains jammed packed and we are doing record numbers in sales.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Redlyne_mr2
Meanwhile the parking stalls at chinook mall remains jammed packed and we are doing record numbers in sales.

Back in late 08 or was it 09 BMW's were giving $15K off M3's. LOL

I remember seeing my SLK having like a $10K+ rebate.

Oh I'm glad you are selling well now but just wait, it can happen haha

[Redlyne_mr2]

Originally posted by max_boost


Back in late 08 or was it 09 BMW's were giving $15K off M3's. LOL

I remember seeing my SLK having like a $10K+ rebate.

Oh I'm glad you are selling well now but just wait, it can happen haha

I agree, never take it for granted. In my circle of clients/friends I dont know one person who went belly up.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Redlyne_mr2


I agree, never take it for granted. In my circle of clients/friends I dont know one person who went belly up. I'm glad you have rich friends. :D

[benyl]

Originally posted by max_boost


Back in late 08 or was it 09 BMW's were giving $15K off M3's. LOL

I remember seeing my SLK having like a $10K+ rebate.

Oh I'm glad you are selling well now but just wait, it can happen haha

6 months and we will likely be in the same situation if the double dip is coming.

[yoda124]

October crash coming:eek:

[ExtraSlow]

At this point, it's too late for me to sell any of my equity investments, so I'll hold those.
The Cash I've been keeping on the sidelines will remain there for now, but I really need to focus myself on one or two stocks that I'd be comfortable buying in the middle of all this craziness. Only once I can convince myself that we've seen the bottom, and the recovery is confirmed.

SPB and PBN are high on my list, but it's a long list, and it keeps changing. Both of those have issues beyond the economy though. Possibly serious issues.
PWT and SKW look cheap compared to "value" . . . .

Still, would love to hear some non energy stocks that people are watching for this purpose.

[89coupe]

There is talk that this could be a Japan style recession, if that is the case, best bet is Cash!

[max_boost]

Another -350 today. :zzz:

Sometimes it's just better not holding any stocks. Allows you to sleep better haha :rofl:

[SJW]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
At this point, it's too late for me to sell any of my equity investments, so I'll hold those.
The Cash I've been keeping on the sidelines will remain there for now, but I really need to focus myself on one or two stocks that I'd be comfortable buying in the middle of all this craziness. Only once I can convince myself that we've seen the bottom, and the recovery is confirmed.

SPB and PBN are high on my list, but it's a long list, and it keeps changing. Both of those have issues beyond the economy though. Possibly serious issues.
PWT and SKW look cheap compared to &quot;value&quot; . . . .

Still, would love to hear some non energy stocks that people are watching for this purpose.

PYN Poynt. I have faith and im holding 30,000 shares. It's mostly a lottery stock for me but with a good foundation. If it hits 1.00 i'll be buying a Pro fishing boat.

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow


Still, would love to hear some non energy stocks that people are watching for this purpose.

Many Consider stocks like Telus, Walmart and Mcdonalds to be 'safe', but expect minimal gains when things begin to look up.

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow

SPB and PBN are high on my list, but it's a long list, and it keeps changing. Both of those have issues beyond the economy though. Possibly serious issues.
PWT and SKW look cheap compared to &quot;value&quot; . . . .


I have also been playing with PBN a fair bit lately.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by Neil4Speed
Many Consider stocks like Telus, Walmart and Mcdonalds to be 'safe', but expect minimal gains when things begin to look up. Yeah, those are god defensive stocks, but not good agressive recovery stocks.



Originally posted by Neil4Speed
I have also been playing with PBN a fair bit lately. The more I look at it, the more I'm worried that PBN is burning cash too fast to be sustainable. They'll have to cut thier dividend, and increase thier debt, and that's going to be massively negative for thier share price. I should probably cut my losses on that one, and stop thinking about averaging down.

[desi112]

ford, suncor and Penn West my picks: expect good returns by july 2012

[dimi]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Yeah, those are god defensive stocks, but not good agressive recovery stocks.


If you expect an "aggressive recovery" buy some financials/banks. I mean, you must think this whole debt crisis will resolve itself, so banks will be in no peril whatsoever. Financials are very very depressed right now and took another big hit today.

Swing for the homerun. My favorite bank is Barclays and it will weather this storm easily given its reserve levels and ratios. But if I was betting on an aggressive recovery I'd be going all out on beat up banks such as Societe Generale, Dexia, BMPS. Dexia lost 10%+ today. When financials eat it, these banks eat it twice as hard. However the inverse is true as well. Very risky indeed, but if you are betting on an aggressive recovery, I would get aggressive.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
SPB and PBN are high on my list, but it's a long list, and it keeps changing. Both of those have issues beyond the economy though. Possibly serious issues.
PWT and SKW look cheap compared to &quot;value&quot; . . . .

Last I checked PBN was trading at 1/3 their NAV. If you compare PBN to PWT, PWT is "expensive." If you're looking to average down, might as well wait for the drop associated with the dividend cut which is all but certain on PBN now.

[89coupe]

If the DOW closes below 10400 today it will cause a downfall of epic perportions, a total collapse. Let's watch and see what happens....

[desi112]

Originally posted by 89coupe
If the DOW closes below 10400 today it will cause a downfall of epic perportions, a total collapse. Let's watch and see what happens....

Besides just letting us know what you feel or think, why don't you hand out the logic also?

[max_boost]

This thread should be renamed, how to take advantage of the imminent crash :D

[89coupe]

Originally posted by desi112


Besides just letting us know what you feel or think, why don't you hand out the logic also?


The truth? The world is broke, we have borrowed more money then we can pay back, EVER!

[jdmXSI]

So here's a question. I've been kinda following gold for a few years and i have always noticed that it followed platinum in it's spot pricing. Now gold is going for $16xx/oz and platinum is going for $14xx... Is gold just over priced and we should expect the spot price to stabalize a bit or is this the point where gold could just go crazy insane?

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by Feruk

Last I checked PBN was trading at 1/3 their NAV. If you compare PBN to PWT, PWT is &quot;expensive.&quot; If you're looking to average down, might as well wait for the drop associated with the dividend cut which is all but certain on PBN now.
Yeah, PBN is pretty much doomed to drop when a) they cut the dividend, b) they can't fun thier exploration with more debt or c) any bad news spooks investors.

My take is that at a minimum, two out of these three things will hit them. I'm staying away unless they go to the $3 range.

PWT is a MUCH stronger company. I'm doing some research on them, and waiting. My opinion is that PWT is poised go up when conditions are right. PBN may not.

In the mean time, holding cash is probably a good move.

[whodiman]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow

Yeah, PBN is pretty much doomed to drop when a) they cut the dividend, b) they can't fun thier exploration with more debt or c) any bad news spooks investors.

My take is that at a minimum, two out of these three things will hit them. I'm staying away unless they go to the $3 range.

PWT is a MUCH stronger company. I'm doing some research on them, and waiting. My opinion is that PWT is poised go up when conditions are right. PBN may not.

In the mean time, holding cash is probably a good move.

Do you still have SPB? I know both SPB and PBN were on your high yield - recommend list earlier in the year.

[ExtraSlow]

I still hold SPB. I'm not sure if thier current dividend is sustainable, but they did cut it back in February down from 14 cents a month to 10 cents. They've certainly underperformed the market for the last week. That may be a sign that they are weak and less able to survive this turmoil than others. Or it could mean a good buying opportunity. I would suggest caution on this one until the trend is reversed.

I honestly haven't redone my research on them, and I'd be greatful if someone else could chime in.

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow

Yeah, PBN is pretty much doomed to drop when a) they cut the dividend, b) they can't fun thier exploration with more debt or c) any bad news spooks investors.


They have to cut the dividend, they are giving 96 cents yearly on a 6 dollar stock, which is ridiculous, even though its only 25% of cashflow (especially when you compare it to some other 'trusts', this is quite low)

[89coupe]

Wow, can we say dead cat bounce. Anyone...anyone...LOL

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by 89coupe
Wow, can we say dead cat bounce. Anyone...anyone...LOL

They will cash out tomorrow.

[max_boost]

Apparently there was a lot of short covering, according to BNN at least lol

So weird with 89coupe so negative. Not use to it. haha

[89coupe]

Originally posted by max_boost
Apparently there was a lot of short covering, according to BNN at least lol

So weird with 89coupe so negative. Not use to it. haha

I'm not negative, just stating the obvious.

Keep an eye on the DOW, if it drops below 10400 shit will hit the fan, big time!

[ExtraSlow]

Stellar bounce today

[89coupe]

Look at a 3 month curve, you will see a coiling effect.

[Beerking]

Originally posted by dimi


If you expect an &quot;aggressive recovery&quot; buy some financials/banks. I mean, you must think this whole debt crisis will resolve itself, so banks will be in no peril whatsoever. Financials are very very depressed right now and took another big hit today.

Swing for the homerun. My favorite bank is Barclays and it will weather this storm easily given its reserve levels and ratios. But if I was betting on an aggressive recovery I'd be going all out on beat up banks such as Societe Generale, Dexia, BMPS. Dexia lost 10%+ today. When financials eat it, these banks eat it twice as hard. However the inverse is true as well. Very risky indeed, but if you are betting on an aggressive recovery, I would get aggressive.

How about that Dexia call?

They are about to be nationalized and just got halted after plunging another 20%

I would not touch any financials until the shit has been cleaned off the roof and the blood has drained, for only then will the "stable, sovent" banks remain.

I would be very weary of SocGen and BNParibas right now....

[Manhattan]

So how much longer til we bottom out? Sitting on a pile of money sucks. :guns: