Canadian wheat board no longer mandatory

[jdmXSI]

I was talking with a wheat farmer a few months back and he totally dispised the wheat board. Saying that the wheat they sold to the board was "diluted" in its purity and that they could even buy thier own wheat without running the risk of jail time. I think that this is great news that it is now optional to use their "serivces".

Anyone else have any thoughts on this?



http://www.thestar.com/iphone/news/canada/politics/article/1071783--conservatives-ending-wheat-board-monopoly?bn=1

[Sugarphreak]

...

[SKR]

I don't think it's great news, and apparently neither do 62% of Canadian wheat growers.

I think a lot of people think Canada is a huge player in the global wheat market, but we're not. When you're small I don't think you want to get smaller. Breaking up single desk selling will take Canada's wheat and break it up into Farmer Joe's wheat, Farmer Bob's wheat, etc.

And it takes the profits gained from singe desk selling, which was, or at least was supposed to be, returned to farmers, and give it to the shareholders of the big grain companies. The same ones who are demolishing rural grain elevators and forcing the rail lines to pull up the tracks. Which leaves farmers trucking their grain further to market, and destroying their own roads in the process, at their own cost.

I'm not saying the grain companies are wrong to do it, but I'm not going to pretend that they're working in the best interest of the farmer, or that the control of the market should just be handed over for nothing. Right now, farmers are at the mercy of a few grain companies, and two rail lines. If any of them decide to fuck the farmer they can, and removing the CWB removes the biggest voice the farmer has.

The good that comes out of it is the farmer has control over his own crop. But anyone I've talked to, and I grew up on a farm and took agriculture in university so I've talked to a shit ton, doesn't seem to have a plan for after the CWB is gone. Most look back to the mid-90's when farmers were going to jail for trying to sell their grain in Montana and North Dakota. They looked at the price differential between the two countries, where it might be as much as 75% higher in the US than Canada, and thought, "why can't we get a taste of that?"

The thing is, as welcoming as US grain buyers looked, it was a setup. The US hates the CWB and has wanted us to get rid of it for a long time, because they think it gives us an unfair advantage in the market. That alone should be enough reason to keep it. Canadian wheat was never going to be part of the northern US market. Now that the wheat board is gone, they'll slam the door shut. From the year or so I spent working in North Dakota, I learned that North Dakota farmers were very supportive of the CWB, and that if it fell, and their market began to be flooded by Canadian wheat, there was going to be a shit storm. For as much as the US government says they don't want the CWB, they sure as fuck don't want their own farmers to eat shit because their domestic market was flooded by outsiders. The US doesn't have a reputation, at least recently, of being friendly to free trade.

I think what will end up happening is we'll see farmers be unable to compete against each other, and while they'll probably never say they miss the CWB, they will wish they had more power. Cooperatives will form, and then eventually we'll be back in the same place we were before: with a big cooperative organization, accountable to the farmers. And everyone who wanted the CWB gone will be patting themselves on the back, while they try not to remember how bad they had it when they gave up control in the first lace.

Short version: Not a fan of the new legislation.

[ZenOps]

So, $6 loaf of bread soon?

Good luck negotiating your own contracts farmers. You aren't going to get any help from me.

This comes at a time when the US is adopting a "Buy America" policy and excluding Canada. I can see the signs. When the US restricts nickel and penny movement across the Canadian border - it won't be long before wheat and foodstuff movements are restricted as well.

I hope you farmers have silver tongues, because there is a chance you might not be able to sell your wheat at any price, even as people around you go hungry (strange how economies work)

Dun Dun duhh. And yes, I believe Rob Anders would be for open market wheat (as most on the right are) But you do have to wonder why its coming at a time when the US is closing (protecting) their markets at an incredible pace. US is ripening us up for slaughter? I think they know that a 11-th grade farmer is not going to know market manipulation in the spot markets, and will wipe out all of them in a matter of years.

Majority of farmers want the wheat board. Anyone who understands how nasty the US is at stealing goods for grams of cotton (like what should otherwise be the most prosperous nation on the planet - South Africa because of its vast mineral deposits of gold and platinum) understands that the open market is a rigged market.

But then again. If you are always protecting the farmers from the "evil" boogeyman open market and don't let any of them "fail", just like the big banks - how are they ever going to learn? I say a few farm failures might be a good thing.

[e31]

The only people in support of the CWB are farmers who continually get shitty yields year after year, trying to pass off cat-tail, dandelions, and other weeds as grain. I've heard these guys bitch and scream that they will lose everything if the CWB vanishes, I say good-riddance.

If you are a Farmer and aren't already making money on contract quotas for non-CWB regulated grain, you shouldn't be farming. Get rid of the CWB and then the successful farmers no longer have to take a hit on Wheat and Barley.

BTW your 62% statistic includes non-farmers, retirees, dead-people, CWB ballots. Not only is it grossly invalid, but enough so that the Federal Gov't won't swallow that BS.

[codetrap]

Not only what SKR is saying, but I talked to various family about the CWB, and they're of the opinion that the little farmer will totally be screwed by the two big players in the Canadian market. With the CWB, they had the ability to get paid right away and sell their grain right away. Without it, they have to compete on the market against the Big2, and risk not being able to sell their grain in a reasonable amount of time.

Also, the CWB had interest free loans up to X % of the crop that were available to the farmers. That ready source of capital will go away too.

Pretty much everyone I talked to said that the CWB needed some reforms, but that all in all it was a really good thing, and it's dissolution will not be in the best interest of the "little guy".

[ronrey]

City People talking farming and their views on controlled prices and farmer voting with the CWB??? Wow its like nerds talking about nailing hot chicks.... Do your homework before you shoot your mouths off.

[ronrey]

Answer this before you reply to my previous post, how many of you knew who the fuck the CWB was a week ago?

[codetrap]

Originally posted by ronrey
Answer this before you reply to my previous post, how many of you knew who the fuck the CWB was a week ago?

I had heard of it a long time ago, and about a 3rd of the family are farmers.

I like how the gov't keeps saying it's going to be great for the little guy to compete in the global market by themselves. I also think that it's funny when people quote about going to jail for selling to montana ect when prices are good. I think what a lot of people are forgetting is that Cargill wasn't able to compete with those little farmers at that time. Now they will be, and you won't see those little farmers surviving for very long.

Honestly, it looks to me like Canada is simply trading one monopoly for another. The CWB will go away, the little farms will be swallowed up by Cargill and then we'll have a single multinational controlling grain prices..

There's no denying in good times, the little guy will be able to get a better price on the open market, if demand is high enough, and he can cut a deal. However, in leaner times, how is some small farmer going to be able to compete against the 2 big players when they can deliver 1000x the wheat?

Oh, and ronrey, you're coming off like a total dick.

[ronrey]

Being told who I can sell my grain to makes me a little crabby... If I wanted the CWB I would move to a communist country.

[ZeeZee]

The way I read this, the wheat board still exists, it's no longer mandatory though. Is that correct?

[AndyL]

The problem with the CWB - was that it wasn't fairly applied...

Western farmers - could only sell to the CWB. Anything east of manitoba/ontario border - were not bound by this rule (and I don't believe any chose to sell to the CWB).

Eliminating the requirement - that forces western canadian farmers, to sell to the wheat board. Just levels the playing field... Yes many will probably choose to continue to sell to the CWB - it's all they've known, its where they've invested their time, it's comfortable. Others will choose to market independantly - like they do with other crops...

What's the big deal? It's common sense, levels the playing field and allows farmers to choose... The CWB will still exist, and be a marketing option, it'll just have to act in a competitive manner now...

[e31]

Ronrey's got a point...

People don't understand that Wheat and Barley are not simply two products, but there are many sub-variants of this product with many potential customers for that product. Do you think that Robin-hood flour uses just any variant of wheat? Do you think that your local brewers use just any kind of barley for their beverages? NO!

Many good farmers already have contracts in the spring to grow one product specifically for a single point of sale, but the CWB takes a cut on all Wheat or Barley transactions regardless, whereas the exact same transaction on a Canola crop doesn't involve the CWB middleman AT ALL. THE CWB IS A PROTECTION RACKET!

For anyone who thinks bread will hit $6 ask yourself, "how many other crops are not regulated by the CWB and how is the market health for those products?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Xtrema]

This is an non-issue unless you are a big lefty.

Government is not getting rid of CWB. It's giving farmers option to opt out.

The 62% of people who believes in CWB can continue to sell to them. And CWB is also allowed to compete with other buyers to keep their existence going.

It's only that CWB is now required to compete, something they never had to do before.

[drewb]

Is the market for wheat not close to "perfect competition"? I don't see how the CWB can add value to these farms as everyone is at the mercy of the market as to the price of wheat. Any farmers that I have talked to oppose the CWB strongly, so why not get rid of it? :dunno:

[bourge73]

Sure get rid of it, and lets see Joe Blow farmer sell his wheat in the International markets and see how he does against huge corporations....... He does all the farming, and now will do all of the marketing/selling, and transportation too.....sure, how can he loose.

[AndyL]

One of the big arguments, is the CWB price is often way below 'market' price in the USA.

Remember the farmer with the truckloaded at Coutts a few years back - 2ish$/bushel through the CWB, but was over 5us$/bushel in billings...

[hampstor]

In the short run, I don't think it's going to make individual farmers anymore money. It may end up costing them more as they lose the economy of scale the CWB provides. CWB also owns all the grain cars that the railway move around. Individual farmers will have to deal with the railways directly, or thru some other mechanism that the market will provide.

In the long run, I think we maybe better off overall once everything settles. The CWB will still exist for the smaller farmers that do not have the capacity, or capability to compete. It allows the larger farms that currently have that capability to go to market on their own though. Ideally, allowing for competition keeps everyone on their toes with respect to price, quality, and service.

With de-constructing any monopoly (especially government ones), getting from the short term to the long term successfully is a significant challenge. If the transition is executed poorly, it could end up being a real fiasco really quickly.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by hampstor

With de-constructing any monopoly (especially government ones), getting from the short term to the long term successfully is a significant challenge. If the transition is executed poorly, it could end up being a real fiasco really quickly.

Look at PetroCan for one. Some many legacy issues for Suncor to tackle.

[ronrey]

For all of you that think that we will get taken advantage of once the CWB is gone on wheat should possibly look at the other commodities that we grow such as canola (currently $12+/bu) (peas $9+/bu) feed barley ($5.50/bu) there is awesome money on these commodities that are not in control of the CWB and are in higher demand than wheat currently it is all logistics the CWB is for people that farm in areas where transport is expensive (sask and man) and that is where all the complaining is coming from. If we got rid of the control of the CWB you would likely see more value added business such as flour mills, commerical bakeries, etc, since they could buy directly from the farmer and not the CWB, if you own a flour mill or brewery in ALberta you must buy from the CWB which adds freight from the coast to the bill which is usually around an extra $1.50/bu. In theory beer of food could actually be cheaper to buy...

[bourge73]

^^ your right . But really, think about it... you HAVE to deal with the Railways directly...why?, because you own no Railway cars, the Wheat Board does. So ok, you want to sell your Wheat?, great, but how are you going to get it out to the Ports? (no, truck is too expensive)The big companies are the only ones that get Railcars from CP or CN (ya I work at CP) so really you are now on the lowest of the low on the picking order, the big elevators and companies get all the cars and you get whatever is left.....if any...

[ronrey]

How do we get canola to the coast? Or Field Peas, or oats or Barley etc, etc, etc,... The CWB owns no infrastructure that is why they are complaining... The Feds own the rail cars.

[ronrey]

Sorry most of our canola is crushed in ALberta or Sask.. but grain movement would probably improve through the grain merchants we would probably see more companies come in and more competition, I heard that Louis Dreyfuss and Bung are talking about a bigger presence in Alberta

[ronrey]

This video sums up the CWB for those that are interested...

1YLMFbYe7MU&feature=player_embedded

[bourge73]

Sorry, but the Feds no longer own the Railcars. Once CN was made into a Corporation, the Railcars , became CN. How do you think the Canola or Peas ,or whatever, get to AB?, or SK? to the Crushing plants? Do you think its some guy in his 86' GMC halfton? or is it Rail (yes) or truck (depending on truck costs)

[ronrey]

Grain movement will not change if the grain companies have more control on wheat. As you are aware the railways hate the CWB anyways

[bourge73]

^^Nope. (great Ninja edit on your post BTW)The Railway is a business just like any other...they like money. If you pay, and order lots of Railcars, well son congrats, the Railways love ya.

[SKR]

Originally posted by ronrey
...the CWB is for people that farm in areas where transport is expensive (sask and man) and that is where all the complaining is coming from...

That's also where most of the grain is grown.

I'm all for the best option for farmers. If no CWB is the best option, then that's what I support. But getting rid of the board doesn't create new markets, it doesn't increase the price (overall I mean, fuck off anyone who wants to argue that some farmers will see higher prices, of course some will), and it hands over complete control of the industry to someone else. So you gain nothing and rather than competing in a global market with a few players, you're competing against every other farmer out there.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it just seems like giving up so much just to say that you have a right to sell to whoever you want to.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by SKR
Maybe I'm wrong, but it just seems like giving up so much just to say that you have a right to sell to whoever you want to.

If people who sold outside of CWB and got jacked, they can rejoin CWB. Isn't choice wonderful?

The problem is farmers who felt they are getting jacked by CWB has no choice or say on the matter. Now they do.

[AndyL]

Originally posted by SKR

So you gain nothing and rather than competing in a global market with a few players, you're competing against every other farmer out there.


Not really - you mostly just move to the model the rest of the world works on...

Small farmers sell into pools; be they local or national - Non profit or middle man... Larger farms get the option to go compete globally if they so choose...

The only thing they've done is take away the mandatory pooling for WESTERN farmers... They've only made it the farmers right to choose who he sells to... The only way to do this previously was to sell to the board, then buy back - then one could market independently (ie for certified organic crops) - but meanwhile you were still paying the CWB for the privilege of being a western farmer...

One of those interesting things that'll pop up are the monsanto's etc - the companies who make / sell the seed, ferts, herbicides - many of them market their end products as well... In the USA one of the options is to buy your package (seed/fert/herbicide) - at a reduced cost, if you agree to sell the crop back to the company at a rate negotiated at the start of the season... This is where that working for 'big ag' crap comes from...

[2007RS4]

In this thread: Those who have first hand knowledge of the CWB and farming vs. those who live in the suburbs of Calgary, drive a spotless pickup truck and wear flannel shirts on weekends.

I know who i'm listening to here.

[Masked Bandit]

Originally posted by ronrey
City People talking farming and their views on controlled prices and farmer voting with the CWB??? Wow its like nerds talking about nailing hot chicks.... Do your homework before you shoot your mouths off.

I grew up in a farming community so I know exactly what the CWB is / was and how it operated and the first thing I thought when I read the title of the thread "How the phuck are these city kids going to debate this?".

[dirtsniffer]

I don't know about you guys but they taught me about it in junior high....my coworkers dad is a grain farmer and he said 'you're fucking stupid if you think forcing people to sell to the cwb is a good idea'

and wtf was with only the western provinces being forced into it?

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by dirtsniffer
and wtf was with only the western provinces being forced into it? It would have been political suicide to include the Ontario farmers in this, and Ontario has most of the votes . . .

[SKR]

Originally posted by Xtrema
If people who sold outside of CWB and got jacked, they can rejoin CWB. Isn't choice wonderful?

The board's entire strength is built on being the only player. Without that, it's gone. That's the price of choice.


Originally posted by AndyL
Small farmers sell into pools; be they local or national - Non profit or middle man... Larger farms get the option to go compete globally if they so choose...


They already had a pool. A big one, that was non profit.

Here's the thing. Forget that I "support the CWB", which I said before isn't necessarily true, and pay attention to this. Financially, farming is touch and go every year. I don't think city people understand how fragile things really are out there. When my parents were kids, there were way more farms and families in rural areas. Now it doesn't pay to be small, and you have to get bigger or you'll go broke. I don't know if it's fair to say that the CWB fucks the big farms to subsidize the small ones, but I think the board definitely helps the smaller farms that don't have economy of scale on their side.

Even if this doesn't ruin the CWB, it will certainly reduce its power and its ability to provide premiums for farmers. And for a lot of farmers, that might be the tipping point where they have to sell and move away. So the big farms get bigger, and the rural population gets smaller. Eventually towns start to die, and you start losing hospitals, schools, RCMP, and infrastructure. Every little thing hurts out here, and it never gets better.

So that's why I'm opposed to it. Every day we get a little more fucked. There's no doubt in my mind that agriculture as an industry will survive. But there's also no doubt in my mind that this is going to come at a cost, and I'm not sure the individual farmer can ride it out until the industry recovers.

That all being said, I stand by what I said before. There will be no new markets, no increase in demand, no increase in price, and no control over the industry. I'd support an open domestic market though.



Originally posted by dirtsniffer
I don't know about you guys but they taught me about it in junior high....my coworkers dad is a grain farmer and he said 'you're fucking stupid if you think forcing people to sell to the cwb is a good idea'

and wtf was with only the western provinces being forced into it?

I think it's just adorable that you learned about the CWB in junior high school, and that you talked to a farmer once.

The reason the western provinces, and not Ontario or BC, is due to supply and demand. There is enough demand to consume the local supply. In the prairies there is way more supply than what the local market can demand. So it all gets pooled, and what isn't kept for domestic production is exported. It's not as complex an answer as you might think.

[AndyL]

CWB isn't exactly non profit... It is on paper, but they're like any bureaucracy - they're self perpetuating - constantly growing to feed the redtape monster...

If the CWB is so great, why are the prices so damn low compared to those offered south of the border on the open market? The operating costs have been extreme for decades - which just eats away at the payments to the farmers...

If there's question as to my experience; 18yrs helping a family friend - every fri/sat/sun we were out there helping them make ends meet. A stereotypical family farm - spent more than a few evenings listening to the locals bitch about the CWB - in that area - the choice was always to have nothing to do with the CWB.

I got to watch them as they caught a fair bit of crap when one of the locals ratted them out for an acre of wheat (grown for personal use - yes to stock their own pantry). And it's a load of crap that anyone thinks they shouldn't have the right to take care of themselves first - no matter what the crop...

[ZenOps]

The Wheat board is setup much like an oil cartel.

Unfortunately, Canada does not grow that much food on a tonnage scale (Surplus for 30 million people sure, but absolutely tiny on a global scale) So all the advantages of a cartel are nullified.

IE: China controlling exports of Neodymium (of which they create 97% of the worlds supply) means a cartel can force pricing up 400% in six months. But with grains - it cannot be done because food production is very spread out.

Would small time farmers be better off outside a weak cartel like the CWB? Probably.

Would consumers in Canada be better off? Probably not. Just like any other commodity - one mans gain is another mans loss, in gold or in wheat pennies.

$6 loaf soon.

[dirtsniffer]

Originally posted by SKR

I think it's just adorable that you learned about the CWB in junior high school, and that you talked to a farmer once.

The reason the western provinces, and not Ontario or BC, is due to supply and demand. There is enough demand to consume the local supply. In the prairies there is way more supply than what the local market can demand. So it all gets pooled, and what isn't kept for domestic production is exported. It's not as complex an answer as you might think.

I mentioned I learnt it in jr high because that would mean most local kids would know what it was. My coworker who sits across from me was present when I was reading this thread. He is from a grain farm in olds and he made those comments. He also said any farmer who can market their product will have no problems. He also said you, specifically, were queer. I also have spent time on a farm and also think you're gay. Weird.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by SKR

The reason the western provinces, and not Ontario or BC, is due to supply and demand. There is enough demand to consume the local supply. In the prairies there is way more supply than what the local market can demand. So it all gets pooled, and what isn't kept for domestic production is exported. It's not as complex an answer as you might think.

So BC and Ontario has a sell to locals first law and have a regulated price? And only surplus can be sold to open market?

If that's not the case, CWB is not needed.

Why BC and Ontario farmers can get rich and we can't?

[SKR]

Originally posted by dirtsniffer


I mentioned I learnt it in jr high because that would mean most local kids would know what it was. My coworker who sits across from me was present when I was reading this thread. He is from a grain farm in olds and he made those comments. He also said any farmer who can market their product will have no problems. He also said you, specifically, were queer. I also have spent time on a farm and also think you're gay. Weird.

I know four people from Olds. I don't think any of them think I'm gay. Maybe your boy should get with the program.

I just thought you were saying that since you learned about it in school, you were an expert. I missed it entirely.


Originally posted by Xtrema


So BC and Ontario has a sell to locals first law and have a regulated price? And only surplus can be sold to open market?

If that's not the case, CWB is not needed.


I don't think there's a law that says it has to be sold domestically first, it's just that it is sold domestically.

Ontario has about 600,000 hectares of land on which it grows its board grains, and a population of 13 million people. Saskatchewan has 5.4 million hectares, and 1 million people. Manitoba has 2 million hectares and 1.2 million people. Alberta has 4.7 million hectares and 3.7 million people. That's why there's no need for a supply control system in the east. There isn't a supply problem.

If you could put a load of grain on a truck and haul it five miles to your customer, or put it on a boat and send it across the ocean, you'd sell to the local guy first. There just isn't an abundance of local buyers in western Canada.


Originally posted by Xtrema
Why BC and Ontario farmers can get rich and we can't?

Are they getting rich? And if they are, why do you think that might be?

[AndyL]

Originally posted by Xtrema


So BC and Ontario has a sell to locals first law and have a regulated price? And only surplus can be sold to open market?

If that's not the case, CWB is not needed.

Why BC and Ontario farmers can get rich and we can't?
Not quite... They've been allowed to sell to the open market since the creation of CWB; for whatever reason they were exempted.

Small farms in the east have found their niche - many grow legacy varieties; certified organic; etc etc etc. Basically they grow what will earn them the best $ knowing they're not going to have the volume of the western farmers...

Here in the west, because they have to sell to the CWB, who doesn't have anything but the main pool... You grow whatever is going to get you the best return on your investment (GMO, whatever - a grains a grain right?).

Should we even get into the CWB quota system?

[SKR]

So what markets are going to open up to western Canadian farmers now? All I've heard are a) US buyers, and b) local flour mills. Well, a) isn't going to happen, so we can probably forget about that. Since grain is shipped by rail, and the railways run east-west, even if there was a market there, there isn't a way to get into it.

That leaves b). Local flour mills. Is there a big spike coming in the demand for bread that I don't see coming? Am I underestimating the bread market? This is how I figure it. One bushel of wheat can produce 90 loaves of bread. There are 1 million people in Calgary. The farthest distance to get into a local market is probably 200-250km. That's an area of 508,000 acres. Half of that would probably go to wheat production, and an average yield is probably 50 bushels per acre. That calculates to 1.1 billion loaves of bread per year. Can the average Calgarian ram 22 loaves of bread down his gullet every week? That seems like a lot.

Obviously I'm doing a fuck of a lot of assuming, but work the math backwards. How much bread does the average person eat? How much wheat is required to produce that bread? How much land is required to produce that wheat? How many farmers are on that land? You start to see how fucking tiny the market is for flour.

The majority of western Canada's wheat is still going to be heading west to go overseas. There's still no choice.

Unless I'm wrong. But I've been asking everyone who tells me about choice, and nobody can give me an answer.

Edited to add, I know that bread isn't the only product that can be made from wheat. "Pizza crusts" isn't an acceptable answer to the question.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by SKR
So what markets are going to open up to western Canadian farmers now? All I've heard are a) US buyers, and b) local flour mills. Well, a) isn't going to happen, so we can probably forget about that. Since grain is shipped by rail, and the railways run east-west, even if there was a market there, there isn't a way to get into it.

Both CP and CN have literally dozens of conections to the US rail network. Actually, CP and CN OWN a big chunk of the US rail network.
Getting a railcar to the US is easy, and it's done every day.

[AndyL]

It'll still go to the typical markets - the part that changes is the middle man...

Don't forget, agrium bought the australian wheat board (and flipped the transport side to cargill) already this year. Do you think they're not already positioning themselves?

The part that matters is now you've got a competitive environment for the farmers - they get to shop around for the best price for their product now... Does it really matter - whether they sell to a local pool/co-op, a major agribuisness, CWB or a local mill? Or *gasp* run it through an oldschool mill and make flour to sell at the local farmers market?

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SKR
So what markets are going to open up to western Canadian farmers now? All I've heard are a) US buyers, and b) local flour mills. Well, a) isn't going to happen, so we can probably forget about that. Since grain is shipped by rail, and the railways run east-west, even if there was a market there, there isn't a way to get into it.

That leaves b). Local flour mills. Is there a big spike coming in the demand for bread that I don't see coming? Am I underestimating the bread market? This is how I figure it. One bushel of wheat can produce 90 loaves of bread. There are 1 million people in Calgary. The farthest distance to get into a local market is probably 200-250km. That's an area of 508,000 acres. Half of that would probably go to wheat production, and an average yield is probably 50 bushels per acre. That calculates to 1.1 billion loaves of bread per year. Can the average Calgarian ram 22 loaves of bread down his gullet every week? That seems like a lot.

Obviously I'm doing a fuck of a lot of assuming, but work the math backwards. How much bread does the average person eat? How much wheat is required to produce that bread? How much land is required to produce that wheat? How many farmers are on that land? You start to see how fucking tiny the market is for flour.

The majority of western Canada's wheat is still going to be heading west to go overseas. There's still no choice.

Unless I'm wrong. But I've been asking everyone who tells me about choice, and nobody can give me an answer.

Edited to add, I know that bread isn't the only product that can be made from wheat. "Pizza crusts" isn't an acceptable answer to the question.

Lol wut? Do you realize that there is a global food shortage? The wheat board regulated durum, barley and feed barley exports. Most of Western Canada grain is exported, do some reading before you throw out random numbers

http://i53.tinypic.com/2nu56b7.png
http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/cge-ecg/annual/exports-08-09-eng.pdf

[SKR]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow

Both CP and CN have literally dozens of conections to the US rail network. Actually, CP and CN OWN a big chunk of the US rail network.
Getting a railcar to the US is easy, and it's done every day.

I know that there are tracks that cross the border. But are they more accessible to western Canada than shipping to Prince Rupert, Vancouver or Churchill, and can they handle the extra traffic? And if they can, is the market price going to be better than shipping overseas?


Originally posted by AndyL
It'll still go to the typical markets - the part that changes is the middle man...

Don't forget, agrium bought the australian wheat board (and flipped the transport side to cargill) already this year. Do you think they're not already positioning themselves?

The part that matters is now you've got a competitive environment for the farmers - they get to shop around for the best price for their product now... Does it really matter - whether they sell to a local pool/co-op, a major agribuisness, CWB or a local mill? Or *gasp* run it through an oldschool mill and make flour to sell at the local farmers market?

There's still the same middle man there always was. The CWB doesn't buy wheat. They find buyers, organize logistics, and collect supply. When the farmer hauls his grain to the elevator, it's the elevator that buys it from him, not the Board.

There's still no shopping around for the farmers. You have the same grain buyers you always did. Do you think Robin Hood is going to start taking truckloads in off the combine? Fuck no, they're going to want clean grain of a consistent quality. That is going to be provided by companies like Cargill. Not the farmer. The people who are going to enjoy the competition is the grain companies.

As far as old school mills, you know that's not going to be a market for any measurable amount of wheat.


Originally posted by cosmok


Lol wut? Do you realize that there is a global food shortage? The wheat board regulated durum, barley and feed barley exports. Most of Western Canada grain is exported, do some reading before you throw out random numbers

http://i53.tinypic.com/2nu56b7.png
http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/cge-ecg/annual/exports-08-09-eng.pdf

So what's your point then? Yes, most of western Canadian grain is exported. Through western ports, by the way (see page 24 of your link), none of which is US bound. On the topic of doing some reading, this seems congruent with things I've posted already.

So what about the global food shortage? How is not going through the Board going to help that?

[CUG]

Originally posted by SKR
I don't think it's great news, and apparently neither do 62% of Canadian wheat growers.

I think a lot of people think Canada is a huge player in the global wheat market, but we're not. When you're small I don't think you want to get smaller. Breaking up single desk selling will take Canada's wheat and break it up into Farmer Joe's wheat, Farmer Bob's wheat, etc.

If the wheat board is valid, it will remain the primary source of wheat.

[SKR]

Originally posted by CUG
If the wheat board is valid, it will remain the primary source of wheat.

I know, but go back to what I said about being able to weather the storm. While the market sorts itself out, are the individual farmers going to be able to afford the market volatility, and if not, is the non-farming rural population going to be able to afford to lose those farmers? It could be years before the dust settles, and if things start to go to hell, it will be the urban population picking up the tab.

I mean, if farms start to go under and people have to start moving away to find jobs, you still have to maintain services. The roads still have to be looked after. You still need schools for the kids that are left, and doctors and police. And as the tax revenue from rural areas begins to decline due to a shrinking population, it will become the responsibility of the urban population to pay the difference.

I don't know if it would go that far. But it's already happened with the loss of the Crow Rate in the 90s, and we haven't recovered from that. There's more to this than giving farmers choice. It's quite a gamble, especially if it turns out the system we had was the best option.

I really am just a sob story jizzbag about this, aren't I?

[ronrey]

Hey to the big CP-Rail know it all: here is a quote from the feds: Producer cars will continue to be available, with access protected under the Canada Grain Act, and will continue to
be allocated by the Canadian Grain Commission.

[ZenOps]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/farmers-tiptoe-newly-opened-canada-wheat-market-140728565.html

Starts today.

"Second is the launch, on January 23, of new spring wheat, durum and barley futures contracts on the ICE Futures Canada exchange"

Bring on the speculators. Wheat should probably triple in price by my estimate. Good for the farmers who understand how to play the markets and profit. Probably bad for the consumer when they start paying double digit prices for bread (or not, they may completely give up on grains and turn to rice and collapse the grain market)

Long term, it does have the potential to either make farmers rich or completely poor (by my estimation, probably intially rich, and a few years down the road - poor to the point where they have to sell their land)

I blame (or credit) Rob Anders, the professional saboteur.