Canadian Dollar Forex

[davidI]

I am not a currency trader and know very little about it, but I currently have all of my savings in CAD, am making US$, and will probably be buying property in Euros in the next few years.

Any good links for Forex? Personal opinions on where currencies are heading?

I've been surprised at how much the Canadian $ has fallen given how much the ECB and US Fed have been bulking up the monetary supply...I've been under the impression the BOC hasn't been easing to the same extent.

Therefore, I would have thought the CAD would have been strengthening. Is it all based on a poor economic outlook for the country? Commodity prices aren't really that bad (although I do understand the WCS / WTI spread hasn't been great).

Thoughts? Insights?

[w_man]

I won't comment on where the currency is headed - don't know anything about that.

As far as currency exchange, I use https://gcen.co.uk/. When transferring/converting large funds, they are usually pretty good with wholesale rates.

Always good to shop around when you are converting large funds so consider GCEN as just one of the option.

[ZenOps]

Originally posted by davidI
I am not a currency trader and know very little about it, but I currently have all of my savings in CAD, am making US$, and will probably be buying property in Euros in the next few years.

Any good links for Forex? Personal opinions on where currencies are heading?

I've been surprised at how much the Canadian $ has fallen given how much the ECB and US Fed have been bulking up the monetary supply...I've been under the impression the BOC hasn't been easing to the same extent.

Therefore, I would have thought the CAD would have been strengthening. Is it all based on a poor economic outlook for the country? Commodity prices aren't really that bad (although I do understand the WCS / WTI spread hasn't been great).

Thoughts? Insights?

WTI has been on a huge catchup lately, its almost at par to Brent again. The media always tries to portray WTI as inferior to light Brent, but what it really comes down to is which way the oil is flowing and where the demand is. IE: Natural gas can cost 5x as much in Russia as North America.

The $CDn is not a bad place to be at all, the Euro sucks. Things like silver have a VAT tax of 19% or 20% depending on country. Its just like Alberta, buy stuff here at no PST and GST (if possible) and then transport, if you can avoid the euro sales taxes - do it.

You are still legally allowed to transport $10,000 in metal form from Canada, and $100 from the US (hardly worth it for the US)

[davidI]

I'd think the WCS price is more important to Canada's currency performance and I think that's part of what has been tough on the loonie. http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/DrillingDownOnCrudeOilPriceDifferentials.pdf

Canadian dollar has lost ~5% over the last year so I wouldn't say it's that great of a place to be. US$ is strengthening quite a bit, which actually greatly surprises me given the QE and monetary program they've been pursuing.

I do think the Euro has further downside, but I'd like to start watching it more closely and maybe start slowly buying some euros.

I'm looking for an inflation hedge as well and don't believe gold / silver provide such a hedge like they once did. Other than land or real estate, which I don't currently want, I'm struggling to find places to plug cash.

[ZenOps]

Originally posted by davidI
I'd think the WCS price is more important to Canada's currency performance and I think that's part of what has been tough on the loonie. http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/DrillingDownOnCrudeOilPriceDifferentials.pdf

Canadian dollar has lost ~5% over the last year so I wouldn't say it's that great of a place to be. US$ is strengthening quite a bit, which actually greatly surprises me given the QE and monetary program they've been pursuing.

I do think the Euro has further downside, but I'd like to start watching it more closely and maybe start slowly buying some euros.

I'm looking for an inflation hedge as well and don't believe gold / silver provide such a hedge like they once did. Other than land or real estate, which I don't currently want, I'm struggling to find places to plug cash.

Could always do exotic metals. Put some money down on Platinum? If France decides to elect Joan of Arc and dump the Euro they will most likely return to nickel for the people, but probably also use Platinum instead of gold (for reasons that would take long to explain)

[BigMass]

Canada is hell bent on keeping it's dollar below that of the US. So if the US inflates it's currency to the point that a loaf of bread costs $10,000, Canada will jump off the cliff right along side with a smile on it's face. It's criminal what our central bank is doing steeling money away from savers. The strongest economies have always been the ones with the strongest currency, however Canada has this inferiority complex and insists in keeping it's citizens poor at the expense of broke ass American consumers. So throw fundamentals out the window. The Canadian dollar is nothing to do with fundamentals. It's manipulated lower to keep the American's happy. If that weren't the case we'd have %3-%4 interest rates and a 1.25-1.50 CAD/USD

[davidI]

Platinum is great because it has industrial value, unfortunately it's also quite volatile from what I've seen. Plus when there is economic crisis the price tends to drop because industrial demand drops. Doesn't really seem to suit what I'm after...

[BigMass]

Originally posted by davidI
Platinum is great because it has industrial value, unfortunately it's also quite volatile from what I've seen. Plus when there is economic crisis the price tends to drop because industrial demand drops. Doesn't really seem to suit what I'm after...

look into liquidity as well. Gold has a far better liquidity and can be sold in far more places far easier. Gold is money which creates more demand than the industrial demand for platinum. Also, don't rule out the future possibility of new technologies requiring gold. Especially in space. That could skyrocket the demand for gold

[sputnik]

Originally posted by BigMass
Canada is hell bent on keeping it's dollar below that of the US. So if the US inflates it's currency to the point that a loaf of bread costs $10,000, Canada will jump off the cliff right along side with a smile on it's face. It's criminal what our central bank is doing steeling money away from savers. The strongest economies have always been the ones with the strongest currency, however Canada has this inferiority complex and insists in keeping it's citizens poor at the expense of broke ass American consumers. So throw fundamentals out the window. The Canadian dollar is nothing to do with fundamentals. It's manipulated lower to keep the American's happy. If that weren't the case we'd have %3-%4 interest rates and a 1.25-1.50 CAD/USD

How exactly is having $1 CAD worth $1.50 USD indicative of a strong dollar/economy? All that having a strong dollar (against the USD) gives us is greater buying power when buying Cherry Coke and passes to Disneyland.

You realize that we are an export heavy country that sells the majority of our resources in USD right.

The Canadian economy is quite strong and has very low debt (compared to our brothers in the south) which makes keeping the dollar on par and interest rates low the most beneficial to Canadians and businesses in Canada.

Your financial advice and understanding of macro economics is laughable.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by sputnik

we are an export heavy country that sells the majority of our resources in USD

Your financial advice and understanding of macro economics is laughable.
how ironic that your understanding and rational of the strength of a nation's currency is nothing more than a layman's talking point