US Energy Self Sufficiency by 2020?? What for Alberta?

[Toma]

US set to become worlds #1 oil producer in a year or two, Shale gas industry explosion expected to fast track their Energy self sufficiency by 2020 (previous estimate was never, then 2035).

What will that mean to Alberta? Where should we be looking to sustain our economy?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101321945

[roll_over]

Germany? I really don't know open your dyno already

[themack89]

Pray for Northern Gateway approval.

[Arash Boodagh]

Im betting there are diamonds in Alberta but the shadow rules are limiting the mining of it because they have a monopoly on the gem and like to keep its production low and value high.

[ZenOps]

It will probably come at the cost of clean water for the US.

Not like that is a big problem, the Nevada test site nuclear program probably irradiated half of the US - and noone complained about that either.

[ExtraSlow]

Energy self-sufficiency doesn't mean they will stop importing.

Also, they can produce a lot of oil and gas, but a lot of those plays have a break even point of $60/bbl or above, which means they are pretty much on-par with our oilsands projects. That acts as a natural price floor.

The smart money is still investing in petroleum in Alberta, I'll stick with them.

[CapnCrunch]

Toma, Arash, Zenops....

Riiiiiggggggggghhhhhhhhtttttttttttttttttttttttttttt.

:rofl:

[ipeefreely]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Energy self-sufficiency doesn't mean they will stop importing.

Also, they can produce a lot of oil and gas, but a lot of those plays have a break even point of $60/bbl or above, which means they are pretty much on-par with our oilsands projects. That acts as a natural price floor.

The smart money is still investing in petroleum in Alberta, I'll stick with them.

This... and they still need our heavy oil because they have a lot of refineries setup only to process heavy. :thumbsup:

Although we're still in a fight with Mexico on that front...

[Feruk]

We've known for some time that we have to go west with our oil. No shock here.

[Toma]

So.... Having to pick at least one.... What is more important to our long term sustainability? Northern gateway or keystone xl?

Should we be massively funding research to bring costs down?

Tar Sands oil extraction was "invented" by University of Alberta.

What if we poured massive provincial money into better techniques, patent it, and live of the patent?

Or, are we doomed to repeat the Alberta recession of the 80's?

[Toma]

Originally posted by roll_over
Germany? I really don't know open your dyno already

April 15th lol. Busy until then.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Toma
So.... Having to pick at least one.... What is more important to our long term sustainability? Northern gateway or keystone xl?

Should we be massively funding research to bring costs down?

Tar Sands oil extraction was "invented" by University of Alberta.

What if we poured massive provincial money into better techniques, patent it, and live of the patent?

Or, are we doomed to repeat the Alberta recession of the 80's?
We sell to Asia obviously. Northern Gateway is the future of Alberta's prosperity IMO. I'd much rather Alberta not get involved in a battle of who will sell oil the cheapest to the USA; sounds like bad business when Asia wants our oil and we can get higher prices for it than the US will pay us.

[FraserB]

Sell to Asia and you also have to factor in the refinery that will be online in Alberta by then.

[Toma]

Who here lived through Alberta's economy in the 80's?

We had a one trick pony province, and the politicians promised "never again"....

And now??

Now that they have found Oil everywhere... ultra deep, shale in both US the China....

Is there really any realistic way for this to go, but down?

Technology, innovation, environmental awareness and perhaps regulation.... we knew it would come eventually, as all these things do... but will it happen sooner than we thought?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[woodywoodford]

Also no mention on the high decline's they're finding with lots of these shale wells. It isn't (as much of) the boon people have built it up to be.

[ExtraSlow]

It's a hell of a treadmill. Lots of drilling to sustain production, not like those huge reef structures that could be drained by a single vertical well.

drill baby drill.

[themack89]

Originally posted by woodywoodford
Also no mention on the high decline's they're finding with lots of these shale wells. It isn't (as much of) the boon people have built it up to be.

I thought high declines are common knowledge... thats like with every single shale well ever drilled.

Marcellus by itself went from essentially 0bcf/d in 2009 to >10bcf/d today. And that's just Marcellus... I'd think it is a bigger boom than people have built it up to be.

Or maybe I'm confused and not sure what you're talking about.

[JRSC00LUDE]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak

This....

Just need to wait until BC goes belly up so we can jam some pipelines through it.... what is it, 60 Billion and counting in debt?

Why can't we just cut Quebec off from their gravy train and bring BC back up? :(

[revelations]

Originally posted by CapnCrunch
Toma, Arash, Zenops....
Riiiiiggggggggghhhhhhhhtttttttttttttttttttttttttttt.
:rofl:

What he said :werd:

[HiTempguy1]

Originally posted by Toma

Should we be massively funding research to bring costs down?

Tar Sands oil extraction was "invented" by University of Alberta.

What if we poured massive provincial money into better techniques, patent it, and live of the patent?


You are being very vague; research what, fund what, pour massive money into what?

Massive amounts of money is already put into oilsands research... BY the companies operating in the oilsands. They are very "hands on".

Oilsands technology is very niche and is hard to export outside Alberta. You'd be surprised at just how collaborative the oil companies are in developing new techniques/technologies to improve their process; sharing these developments helps everyone, there is no advantage to holding onto secrets (some of them, sure, but not all of them). The industry is expensive to be in, and at the end of the day, if there are not fundamental, game changing techniques to be developed, the industry will not fund them (and if there is not a significant ROI, then why would the province fund it?)

Edit-
This is right up my alley as I research/develop/build and then install a lot of the end results of oilsands academic research :dunno: Oil prices aren't going down anytime soon, and a finite product is being sold to an ever increasing population. As long as people much smarter than myself have sold the bean counters on the fact that a plant will earn net profits until the plant is past its lifespan of 50+ years (hello Syncrude!), the investment in the technology will always be hard to justify.

On top of that, lots (most?) of it is going SAGD now. :dunno:

[Xtrema]

All it means it will become less profitable unless we find new outlets.

Exporting to Asia should be a priority. Opening up the east and then to the Atlantic should be 2nd. Sending oil to the gulf should be last ditch effort.

[themack89]

Originally posted by Xtrema
All it means it will become less profitable unless we find new outlets.

Exporting to Asia should be a priority. Opening up the east and then to the Atlantic should be 2nd. Sending oil to the gulf should be last ditch effort.

"less profitable"? I think it will destroy our market haha. :rofl: Or at least make it go into dormancy until the US actually needs to buy it again. And the U.S. already has the gulf covered, I don't see room for us there.

Alberta is not invincible, the only thing I have been saying to my friends is to make hay while the sun shines.