Calgarys housing market when will it even out

[redrocket]

Soo I bought a house 3 years ago and with the rate that calgarys housing market is going im considering picking a number, And if the market gets so out of hand and I reach that number that ill just sell off and go move to drumheller and buy a house for 100k or move back in with my parents. I cant be the only one thinking with this mindset. I know that no one can see the future. It sure feels familiar to the last housing boom, things will skyrocket for a short time and before we know it interest rates will rise and people will prepare for another recession. But it sure would be pretty scary to sell off and hope to hell things even out not long after I sold off. So I ask... do you think this is just a short housing boom that will even out? are we coming into another couple year boom and these numbers will continue? whats everyones take

[CanmoreOrLess]

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. It sounds like you are in a nice position to do as you wish. I'd take money in hand, move in with Ma and Pa, mow the lawn, shovel the walk, buy the odd dinner and watch my former house payment build and build in my protected bank account. I'd also not buy any depreciating assets like a new car, etc. Sit on the money, buy two houses when the drop happens. Go on, take the money and run.

[BigMass]

Calgary is pretty much the only place in Canada that's creating jobs. Fundamentals are driving up house prices here. People say that if oil and gas slows down people will just leave... ok... where to? lol. Plus with the recent economic boom, we're actually building a nice city to live in with quite a few things to do and world class facilities. So its not just a money town only anymore. It's actually a nice place to call home. One thing is certain. Do not bank on interest rates rising to lower home prices. Won't happen (can't happen) in the next 10-20 years and by then inflation might have taken the average house price in Calgary to over a million.

[rage2]

Is it even worth it? Even in a recession, prices are fairly stable here. The only time our home values dipped was in '08 where prices dropped ~10% but recovered 12 or so months afterwards. You lose that in realtor fees and other crap anyways.

The time to sell and move is when Calgary pulls a Detroit, where the local economy starts it's mass declines. These weak economy price drops are just tiny fluctuations in the Calgary housing market and not worth selling/buying afterwards.

If you bought in the last 3 years, you haven't seen a real boom yet. The 80% gains in '08, now that's a boom haha. The only time you want to sell in Calgary in the forseeable future is if you're not planning on coming back.

[max_boost]

Anyone remember peak 2007? My mom bought a house right then and it has finally (based on comparable) back to that level. Only took 7 years, ain't no thing lol Who knows where it'll go from here.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by max_boost
Anyone remember peak 2007? My mom bought a house right then and it has finally (based on comparable) back to that level. Only took 7 years, ain't no thing lol Who knows where it'll go from here.

that's about a worst case scenario in Calgary. My in-laws had a place in California worth 600k, now it's still only worth about 350k. So I'm not shedding any tears for your mom on that one heh.

[thetransporter]

hUl8i9WurAI


Look how the guys at Fox laught at him at 3:36..

[Sugarphreak]

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[ercchry]

if you want to speculate; pickup another property, rent it out till you are ready to sell... doing it with your primary is kind of silly... especially if it means ending up in med hat :barf:

[austic]

Originally posted by BigMass
Calgary is pretty much the only place in Canada that's creating jobs. Fundamentals are driving up house prices here. People say that if oil and gas slows down people will just leave... ok... where to? lol. Plus with the recent economic boom, we're actually building a nice city to live in with quite a few things to do and world class facilities. So its not just a money town only anymore. It's actually a nice place to call home. One thing is certain. Do not bank on interest rates rising to lower home prices. Won't happen (can't happen) in the next 10-20 years and by then inflation might have taken the average house price in Calgary to over a million.

Pretty much.
Supply and Demand drive the housing market.
Oil and Gas tanking would cause less people to move here which would bring the prices down.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
IMO we are due for a pullback starting either this late this summer or next year

Then again I predicted mortgage interest rates would rise by this time, so looks like things are progressing slower than expected. I think I owe 89 coupe a case of beer pretty quick.

based on what will the market pull back? Rates will remain low, demand is high, rents are high, Calgary is becoming a target for offshore real-estate investment, Calgary is creating most of the jobs in Canada, Calgary has way more people coming in every year than houses to put them all in. Of the many reasons housing crashed in the US, one basic one was that a million dollar home was renting for like $1500/month. Rents were cheap but people were still buying these places because they felt that price appreciation would make up for the negative monthly cashflow. This is nowhere near the case in Calgary now where a junky 300k condo in downtown rents for $2000,month. Put in $500 worth of Ikea furniture and all of a sudden its a $3500/month "executive rental". It's stupid, but it's reality. Don't see any scenario in which prices are coming down anytime soon. I'd start to worry when rent prices drop %25-%30

[CapnCrunch]

You'll make 10 times more money riding real estates prices up than you will trying to predict and time a dramatic drop in prices.

[Sugarphreak]

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[BigMass]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Based on historical market cycles… we are due.

IMO it won’t have anything to do with energy prices, or rates, or housing, or even a debt crunch…. My left field prediction is that tech stocks are going to crumble and cause a huge pull back on the stock market, then the hype and fear will spread like an infectious virus to all sectors and cause a recession. It wouldn’t be that bad, but because the feds have already been holding interest rates low they won’t be able to soften the blow.

….And when the sky falls down and it all goes wrong I will be sitting on top, again

maybe. I just don't see the Fed allowing the market to fall as asset price inflation is the only thing allowing them to mask the terrible global economy. I think the Fed is fully committed to inflation and will print its way out of any deflationary triggers such as a stock market pullback. Heck that's why the Dow was 7500 5 years ago and now its 16,000. It's all Fed driven. It's not like any of the problems from the financial crisis were actually solved and done with

[ExtraSlow]

I have a question for the OP and anyone else who wants ot chime in. What makes you think that the Calgary Housing market isn't currently balanced?

My opinion is that housing affordability in Calgary is pretty good when you look at average incomes and current interest rates.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I have a question for the OP and anyone else who wants ot chime in. What makes you think that the Calgary Housing market isn't currently balanced?

My opinion is that housing affordability in Calgary is pretty good when you look at average incomes and current interest rates.

no market in the world is balanced because its distorted by governments and central banks. So within that entire framework it's considered "balanced". But when their grip slips and market forces take over there is nothing stopping a violent global correction. What im really trying to say it's unpredictable. The market could keep going up due to inflation, or crash due to the central banks losing their grip and ability to manipulate further. All that's certain is volatility and unpredictability unless you're in the inner circle and know exactly what people setting policy know and what they're going to do. Which none of us really can say. That's why forecasts and predictions are no better than betting in a casino. It's how someone like Peter Schiff who has a logical grasp on what's going on can't predict properly because he underestimated the power and control a handful of people have over the global economy and monetary system.

[A790]

It's crazy. I've gained 55k in equity on a small townhouse in 4 years. Zing.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by BigMass


that's about a worst case scenario in Calgary. My in-laws had a place in California worth 600k, now it's still only worth about 350k. So I'm not shedding any tears for your mom on that one heh. lol for sure considering how well they did on the others. typical asians, hoarding properties lol :nut: . it was the only one of theirs to be down money and i had no idea when they would break even but think long term and ride it out. it'll be up for sale this summer :nut:

[TomcoPDR]

Originally posted by A790
It's crazy. I've gained 55k in equity on a small townhouse in 4 years. Zing.

HELOC time :clap:

[Sugarphreak]

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[max_boost]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak

I figure I am up about 385K in market growth alone in the past 5 years.... haha


HELOC time :clap:

[Sugarphreak]

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[Masked Bandit]

I don't see much of a pull back in Calgary...ever. We sold our old house at the peak in late 2007. At the WORST, it dropped only by 10% and is now back up to (and maybe even a touch ahead) of what it's previous best was. When you factor in realtor fees and legal costs, it just isn't worth the dance.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I have a question for the OP and anyone else who wants ot chime in. What makes you think that the Calgary Housing market isn't currently balanced?

Bidding wars.

10-12% inflation in 6 months.

Lack of units on market.


Originally posted by redrocket
Soo I bought a house 3 years ago and with the rate that calgarys housing market is going im considering picking a number, And if the market gets so out of hand and I reach that number that ill just sell off and go move to drumheller and buy a house for 100k or move back in with my parents. I cant be the only one thinking with this mindset. I know that no one can see the future. It sure feels familiar to the last housing boom, things will skyrocket for a short time and before we know it interest rates will rise and people will prepare for another recession. But it sure would be pretty scary to sell off and hope to hell things even out not long after I sold off. So I ask... do you think this is just a short housing boom that will even out? are we coming into another couple year boom and these numbers will continue? whats everyones take

Hedge on your investment properties, not your primary residence. Unless you are ok with your destination city or living with your parents forever.

People who want to unlock equity by moving to cheaper cities have to know that it's a one way deal mostly. Once you get out of any metro area, it's hard to go back.

[jdmXSI]

This thread reminded me of this clip from yahoo finance a little while back... purely speculative though.

EzKrLGcG5I4

[oz388]

Currently in Calgary Oil & Gas related engineering jobs have been slowed down significantly due to many major projects went on hold or even cancelled. Don't expect another oil boom in Calgary until we get Keystone XL approved by US!

[BigMass]

Originally posted by oz388
Currently in Calgary Oil & Gas related engineering jobs have been slowed down significantly due to many major projects went on hold or even cancelled. Don't expect another oil boom in Calgary until we get Keystone XL approved by US!

people in Calgary make so much money and most are dual income families that one person losing their jobs, with savings, unemployment insurance, spousal income and line of credits etc, people here can live for quite a long time without work until the real panic sets in. So if the job market tanks now it might still be another year until you see it reflect in house prices. Remember, in the US you had McDonalds fry cooks making minimum wage, signing liar loans and financing $700,000 properties in LA so their crash was huge and fast. Ours will be a lot slower. If someone gets in trouble in Calgary they can start offloading their Mercedes, BMWs, cash in TFSAs and RRSPs etc.. they can last a while. Heck, very second person on this forum is a millionare

[msommers]

I'll sell everything I own and buy a place in Guatemala. Peace!

[max_boost]

Originally posted by BigMass


people in Calgary make so much money and most are dual income families that one person losing their jobs, with savings, unemployment insurance, spousal income and line of credits etc, people here can live for quite a long time without work until the real panic sets in. So if the job market tanks now it might still be another year until you see it reflect in house prices. Remember, in the US you had McDonalds fry cooks making minimum wage, signing liar loans and financing $700,000 properties in LA so their crash was huge and fast. Ours will be a lot slower. If someone gets in trouble in Calgary they can start offloading their Mercedes, BMWs, cash in TFSAs and RRSPs etc.. they can last a while. Heck, very second person on this forum is a millionare

I like your posts. So true. Recession hits, I will start with the 911 :rofl: and use that to keep leasing the 328 :rofl:

[A790]

Originally posted by max_boost


I like your posts. So true. Recession hits, I will start with the 911 :rofl: and use that to keep leasing the 328 :rofl:
lol I went the opposite and have worked to keep my unsecured debt low (zero right now) and my living expenses low (hello small townhouse).

If shit happens I have nearly 18 months before I need to start stressing...

[max_boost]

Chinese ftw. Move back home. No stress. lol

[TomcoPDR]

Originally posted by max_boost
Chinese ftw. Move back home. No stress. lol

But then. ?????

forums.beyond.ca/st/367169/question-for-the-females-is-it-a-deal-breaker-if-the-guy-is-still-living-at-home/

[Feruk]

Originally posted by oz388
Currently in Calgary Oil & Gas related engineering jobs have been slowed down significantly due to many major projects went on hold or even cancelled.
I keep hearing this over and over. Yet being an engineer in O&G, I do not know of ONE engineer looking for a job... Yeah a bunch got laid off last year, but they quickly found employment elsewhere.

[Sugarphreak]

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[ExtraSlow]

As an oil and gas engineer, I can say that the rumours of a poor job market are waaay overblown. Lots of folks are hiring.

As always, people with under five years experence are in a tough spot, but that's not new. Anyone over ten years with a decent repuation should have very few difficulties.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by TomcoPDR


But then. ?????

forums.beyond.ca/st/367169/question-for-the-females-is-it-a-deal-breaker-if-the-guy-is-still-living-at-home/ lol! that was just to troll all the 20somethings who have finished school and still lived at home. it probably doesn't matter anyway haha

[revelations]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Plus worst case scenario you can go rake yards for 160$ an hour... I am kind of thinking about getting into the lucrative world of raking myself.

:rofl:

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by oz388
Currently in Calgary Oil & Gas related engineering jobs have been slowed down significantly due to many major projects went on hold or even cancelled. Don't expect another oil boom in Calgary until we get Keystone XL approved by US!

Sorry, that was Nov. Everyone who were laid off in Nov/Dec are all back to work in Jan/Feb.

Experienced IT Resources are also at a premium right now.

[A790]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Plus worst case scenario you can go rake yards for 160$ an hour... I am kind of thinking about getting into the lucrative world of raking myself.
I feel like this is a reference to something but I'm not sure what...

[TomcoPDR]

Originally posted by max_boost
lol! that was just to troll all the 20somethings who have finished school and still lived at home. it probably doesn't matter anyway haha

Got cha... As long as there're still incalls

[jwslam]

Originally posted by A790
I feel like this is a reference to something but I'm not sure what...
This? (http://forums.beyond.ca/st2/yard-help-reccomendations/showthread.php?s=&threadid=381583&highlight=rake)

[Sugarphreak]

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[ercchry]

Originally posted by A790

I feel like this is a reference to something but I'm not sure what...

if i remember correctly, nick doesnt believe in landscapers