Tesla Megathread (was Just lost $40k USD on Tesla options)

[RedDawn]

Just lost $40k USD on Tesla options and need somewhere to vent since I don't have any trading buddies.

Everything was looking perfect for me to get out a day before their secret press conference on April 30th. Then, for reasons still unexplained, they ruined the surprise on their own press conference by intentionally confirming what they'd be announcing in an email to investors. Stock spiked early and wiped me out.

Who does that?!!!! It's like planning a dinner to announce your engagement and then texting all your guests a week before "Guys we're engaged. See you at dinner"

Arrrrrrgghgghghghghgh

[eglove]

they are up $11?

[RedDawn]

Originally posted by eglove
they are up $11?

^

You can structure options so that you win as long as the stock stays within a certain range. When it exceeds that range, you lose.

All of Tesla's past mystery conferences have locked the stock within a range leading up to the conference due to the uncertainty of the reveal. Only AFTER the reveal does the stock move up or down based on it living up to the hype or disappointing. In this case, because they sent out an email, the stock moved before their announcement and broke out of my range causing me to lose. I've always closed the trade and taken a profit the day before the announcement so there's no chance of it exceeding my range.

My range on this trade was 190 and 220. It was perfectly hovering around 205ish up until the email yesterday and now it broke my 220 upper limit.

[CanmoreOrLess]

You can't lose what you don't own. It is the human condition to feel as though you did. In 2008 I owned over 10K shares of Apple at $11ish, sold at I think $22 and thought I was a genius and as 2008 was a very good year I figured I was about to enter a new career with my mad money skills. Today what I feel is a loss, I left a wee bit on the table had I carried it to today.

TSLA I am too positively biased to invest in.

[revelations]

What % of your portfolio are we talking about? 40k in a 1m$ margin account is 4%.

[RedDawn]

Originally posted by CanmoreOrLess
You can't lose what you don't own. It is the human condition to feel as though you did. In 2008 I owned over 10K shares of Apple at $11ish, sold at I think $22 and thought I was a genius and as 2008 was a very good year I figured I was about to enter a new career. Today what I feel is a loss, I left a wee bit on the table had I carried it to today.

This isn't an unrealized gain that I lost leaving me back with 0 gain but my principal intact. I lost all my gain and 40k in principal.

[CanmoreOrLess]

Originally posted by RedDawn


This isn't an unrealized gain that I lost leaving me back with 0 gain but my principal intact. I lost all my gain and 40k in principal.

Sorry about that, I feel your pain. Your plan was good, you need to remember that going forward. At some point you'll have walked it off. It might take a while, depends on many things.

Any historical record of Musk and his companies playing these dirty tricks in the past?

[ExtraSlow]

Good lesson for all you traders and investors out there. There's a big difference between buying shares in a company that has underlying (albeit fluctuating) value, and buying options.

[know1edge]

.

[sabad66]

Sorry to hear dude. What was the upside potential if it stayed within your range?

[in*10*se]

maybe should have considered a straddle....

[Sugarphreak]

...

[BavarianBeast]

Shitty.

You win some and you lose some. Hopefully you can see some more wins in your future.

[ercchry]

makes me feel better about my $8k loss last week :rofl:

wasnt tesla though... 3 separate contracts expired at a loss

[RedDawn]

Originally posted by in*10*se
maybe should have considered a straddle....

A straddle would only be appropriate if the intent was to hold through the announcement. That wasn't my plan. I was supposed to be out the day before the announcement.

[BavarianBeast]

Playing on NRs is risky business.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[msommers]

As shitty as this is to hear, it's a good reminder how unpredictable the stock market can be no matter how in-the-know you are.

Sorry to hear man, hopefully a speedy recovery.

[RedDawn]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
How big was the position and when does it expire?
Why not roll the short call position, assuming you did a short strangle

Iron condor expiring May 1st.

Stock is way too unpredictable now to gamble on rolling out the short calls. Given the news that was released, Tesla may generate more revenue from batteries than cars in the next year. Once the investment banks update their models and buy into their positions pre-announcement, no telling how high this could run before the official details are released on the 30th.

[themack89]

Win some lose some its part of the game.

But, if this is a really big loss for you, then I'd say you aren't managing your risk properly. Getting pinched for an uncomfortably large % on a position that expires is a mistake I only had to make once.

[RedDawn]

Originally posted by themack89
Win some lose some its part of the game.

But, if this is a really big loss for you, then I'd say you aren't managing your risk properly. Getting pinched for an uncomfortably large % on a position that expires is a mistake I only had to make once.

Yes, that's an area I'm still working on. I haven't found an effective way to manage risk with options yet without basically eliminating a large part of the high gains they generate.

It sounds like you may know a thing or too though. Do you mind sharing how you would've played it? I know the general rules: diversify, stop limits but what I'm really interested in is the optimal way to repair a rapidly failed trade such as the one I had today.

[MGCM]

all this market and stock crap is a scam anyway:thumbsdow

[themack89]

Originally posted by RedDawn
Yes, that's an area I'm still working on. I haven't found an effective way to manage risk with options yet without basically eliminating a large part of the high gains they generate.

It sounds like you may know a thing or too though. Do you mind sharing how you would've played it? I know the general rules: diversify, stop limits but what I'm really interested in is the optimal way to repair a rapidly failed trade such as the one I had today.

Options generate high gains if you're outright (on either side) and catch big moves. If you're playing that game (and yes it can be done successfully), then you really just need to manage your size and which strike prices you are choosing so you don't get fucked on the bid/ask when you want to get out (or if you have to get out).

How I would have played it? Well, I'll assume that I would have had the same theory as you that it would have stayed range bound...

- 2 Leg spreads (in your case meaning a strangle or a straddle, as a few others have mentioned).. The only reason being is cause they are easier to get out of. Adjust size accordingly for tolerable gains and losses.
- Different expiry. You said May 1st? Nothing expires on a date like that except for a weekly, which I have personally never played. Give yourself more time to deal with a trade OR reduce your size so if it goes to shit you don't care as much.

You don't repair failed trades.. They are failed trades, you just close them and move on. I don't believe in diversifying (its just an excuse for laziness and ignorance); I do, however, believe in finding the holy grail of all your positions having zero correlation with each other (huge difference as opposed to diversification)....And stops will fuck you one day when the market dries up, I'd only use them for entry and profitable exits, never losing exits.

[BrknFngrs]

Am I reading your first post right? Tesla essentially provided the details of the press release to shareholders over email in advance of its planned release and then subsequently changed its mind and made it entirely public in advance?

[RedDawn]

Originally posted by themack89


Options generate high gains if you're outright (on either side) and catch big moves. If you're playing that game (and yes it can be done successfully), then you really just need to manage your size and which strike prices you are choosing so you don't get fucked on the bid/ask when you want to get out (or if you have to get out).

How I would have played it? Well, I'll assume that I would have had the same theory as you that it would have stayed range bound...

- 2 Leg spreads (in your case meaning a strangle or a straddle, as a few others have mentioned).. The only reason being is cause they are easier to get out of. Adjust size accordingly for tolerable gains and losses.
- Different expiry. You said May 1st? Nothing expires on a date like that except for a weekly, which I have personally never played. Give yourself more time to deal with a trade OR reduce your size so if it goes to shit you don't care as much.

You don't repair failed trades.. They are failed trades, you just close them and move on. I don't believe in diversifying (its just an excuse for laziness and ignorance); I do, however, believe in finding the holy grail of all your positions having zero correlation with each other (huge difference as opposed to diversification)....And stops will fuck you one day when the market dries up, I'd only use them for entry and profitable exits, never losing exits.

Thanks for typing that out. I'm already aware of most of those things though.

[RedDawn]

Originally posted by BrknFngrs
Am I reading your first post right? Tesla essentially provided the details of the press release to shareholders over email in advance of its planned release and then subsequently changed its mind and made it entirely public in advance?

A month ago, Tesla CEO tweeted this:

"Major new Tesla product line -- not a car -- will be unveiled at our Hawthorne Design Studio on Thurs 8pm, April 30"


Then, 2 days ago, their head of investor relations sent out an email to certain investors confirming exactly what they'd be unveiling. Tesla expected this email to be made public via the investors and there was no intent of hiding it. The same evening, no longer bound to their NDA because the news is public, WalMart and Cargil Foods confirmed they're already trialing the Tesla product that was supposed to be unveiled on the 30th.

Cue mass explosion in stock price the following day.

Why on earth they would plan a whole press event and then ruin their own surprise through email is beyond me.

[InRich]

^ who cares. You shouldnt have been a bitch and held back. Now your crying about it on here. Next time grow a pair and commit.

[BavarianBeast]

:rofl:

[jwslam]

Originally posted by InRich
^ who cares. You shouldnt have been a bitch and held back. Now your crying about it on here. Next time grow a pair and commit.
Pretty much. Cry like all the companies who budgeted with $80/barrel. QQ oil was supposed to be up for the entire next year :cry: :cry: :cry:

[InRich]

^ yea your right, fact is, why couldn't they just save a % of their profits during boom times? We all know the shit fluctuates, save some of your friggin earnings when times are good! Now their all crying and whining about it. The governments the worst though. Instead of them putting away cash for for harder times, they spent it all, and now their imposing extra taxes to compensate for losses in tax revenue. That really friggin grinds my gears. Now everyone in Calgary's fucking poor, and I'm struggling just to keep all my crews busy and happy.

[msommers]

Originally posted by InRich
^ yea your right, fact is, why couldn't they just save a % of their profits during boom times? We all know the shit fluctuates, save some of your friggin earnings when times are good! Now their all crying and whining about it. The governments the worst though. Instead of them putting away cash for for harder times, they spent it all, and now their imposing extra taxes to compensate for losses in tax revenue. That really friggin grinds my gears. Now everyone in Calgary's fucking poor, and I'm struggling just to keep all my crews busy and happy.

Hopefully you have money set aside for the downturns then.

[ricosuave]

Sounds to me like you got greedy by waiting until the very last second then complaining when you got scooped.

Hey, that's the way it goes. For whatever reason.

[mazdavirgin]

Telsa is all hype... Why you would touch hype stocks with a ten foot pole is beyond me. At that point it's not investing it's gambling. The stock rises and falls dependent on popularity/the mood of the unwashed masses. Telsa's fundamentals do not support the stock price but that doesn't mean that it won't keep going up simply due to hype. It's too hard to invest in something that has no value other than temporary popularity since you have no idea where the stock will go.

[themack89]

Originally posted by RedDawn


Thanks for typing that out. I'm already aware of most of those things though.

If you knew these things then why did you need to make this thread?

You can't execute your own shit properly within your risk tolerances. Learn to trade small before you try and trade big dude.

Maybe the real problem here is you don't need external advice, but you need to listen to yourself. Ask yourself questions like "How can I get fucked on this?" .... "Am I comfortable with losing that much?" .... "Will I be able to exit? When will I exit?" .... etc.

I think you failed to do this, otherwise you wouldn't have made this thread.

[riander5]

Themack what happened to your trading blog? Did you get hammered with the great oil annihilation of '14

[themack89]

Originally posted by riander5
Themack what happened to your trading blog? Did you get hammered with the great oil annihilation of '14

It's just sitting cash right now.. I'm in Thailand on vacation, and I might actually need the money to survive if I don't get work (oil field), or if I decide to go to school.

Hence my signature.

And most of what I accomplished was because of the great annihilation of 14, anything I tried since then didn't work LOL.

[RedDawn]

Sweet. Got my 40k back plus more. Official news just broke and it's even better news than their initial leak.

Amazon, Target, your local electric company and data centre - All soon to be powered by Tesla.

[msommers]

Neat.

[riander5]

Cool

[RedDawn]

This is history in the making.

Before tonight, everyone thought the billon dollar gigafactory they're building was for internal use.....it isn't...the factory itself is the product and the one they're building is the first of many. The intent is for cities to purchase it and be powered by it.

Imagine one of these outside of every single city. Rather than using the energy to build cars and batteries, the factory's energy output will be used to power our cities. And, before all the armchair solar experts jump in - Tesla showed their math during the unveil. Where many pie in the sky solar ideas like this have failed in the past, this is the first one that's technologically and economically feasible.....and it's already being built.

http://o.aolcdn.com/hss/storage/midas/5a91cc2d3f64d386eb97df26a8d33e08/200749296/Tesla-Gigafactory-Nevada.jpg

[RedDawn]

Home battery released too (on the left). Never thought I'd say this but that's one sexy looking battery lol. Comes in different colours.

http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/images/powerwall/[email protected]

[oster]

Different colours !?

[BigMass]

Originally posted by RedDawn
This is history in the making.
Imagine one of these outside of every single city. Rather than using the energy to build cars and batteries, the factory's energy output will be used to power our cities. And, before all the armchair solar experts jump in - Tesla showed their math during the unveil. Where many pie in the sky solar ideas like this have failed in the past, this is the first one that's technologically and economically feasible.....and it's already being built.

http://o.aolcdn.com/hss/storage/midas/5a91cc2d3f64d386eb97df26a8d33e08/200749296/Tesla-Gigafactory-Nevada.jpg

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--PxjSRezm--/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_320/18mjz23w1zpjejpg.jpg
https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/article-1300967395259-0b51081000000578-763162_466x310.jpg
check and mate

[Sugarphreak]

....

[mazdavirgin]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I see Tesla leaked an announcement of the press announcement again :nut:

They must be running low on shareholder money. I wonder how bad it will be for stock holders when this house of cards collapses in on itself.

My thoughts exactly. It's all hype and vaporware. Car's not working as a venue oh shit let's go into batteries! Oh that's not so promising either? Man we better try to get into power generation and solar panels :nut:

[01RedDX]

.

[mazdavirgin]

Originally posted by 01RedDX
Except it's even simpler than that, they are just too stupid/ignorant to realize what's happening.

Yeah that's exactly what I think whenever I read all the Elon Musk fanboyism on here and around the internet. People are too stupid to realize they are being lead around by the nose and promised some utopian vaporware dream that happens to line Elon Musk's pockets.

You want clean power? Go nuclear enough with this unrealistic crap.

[ExtraSlow]

Distributed generation and storage is awesome, and is a huge piece of the puzzle for so many reasons.

[BrknFngrs]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I see Tesla leaked an announcement of the press announcement again :nut:

:werd: This is what's surprising me about this whole situation the most.

[HiTempguy1]

Originally posted by mazdavirgin


You want clean power? Go nuclear enough with this unrealistic crap.

Yep, everyone gets their own reactor in their backyard.

Had a huge chat with one of our enginerds about nuclear while doing some traveling for the company. Was an insightful conversation. There are definitely concerns with nuclear, but I think that concerns are just as high with lithium batteries.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Distributed generation and storage is awesome, and is a huge piece of the puzzle for so many reasons.

It is, as long as we aren't solely reliant on solar.

A couple of weeks of clouds in a certain area would reek havoc on a utility that hasn't been scaling up to handle the draw from those whose batteries are dead.

Renewable energy is great, however unless you are willing to go completely off the grid your local utilities still need to build the capacity required to power everyone.

[RedDawn]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I see Tesla leaked an announcement of the press announcement again :nut:

They must be running low on shareholder money. I wonder how bad it will be for stock holders when this house of cards collapses in on itself.

If there's anything I've learned from this thread, it's how few people read anything before throwing in an uninformed comment :rofl:.

They're already powering Amazon, among other huge players.

From their press kit:

Tesla Energy businesses

Amazon
Launched in 2006, Amazon Web Services (AWS) offers a robust, fully featured technology infrastructure platform in the cloud comprised of a broad set of compute, storage, database, analytics, application, and deployment services from data center locations in the U.S., Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, Ireland, Japan, and Singapore. More than a million customers, including fast-growing startups, large enterprises, and government agencies across 190 countries, rely on AWS services to innovate quickly, lower IT costs, and scale applications globally. To serve these customers, AWS is committed to operating in the most environmentally friendly way possible. In addition to the environmental benefits inherently associated with running applications in the cloud, AWS has a long-term commitment to achieve 100% renewable energy usage for its global infrastructure footprint. Today, three AWS Regions are 100% carbon-neutral, including US West (Oregon), EU (Frankfurt), and AWS GovCloud (US).

“We’ve been working closely with Tesla for the past year to drive innovative applications of high-capacity battery technology in data center applications with the ultimate goal of reducing the technical barriers limiting widespread adoption of renewables in the grid,” said James Hamilton, Distinguished Engineer at AWS. “Batteries are important for both data center reliability and as enablers for the efficient application of renewable power. They help bridge the gap between intermittent production, from sources like wind, and the data center’s constant power demands. We're excited to roll out a 4.8 megawatt hour pilot of Tesla’s energy storage batteries in our US West (Northern California) Region. This complements our strategy to use renewable energy to power our global infrastructure.”

Target
“As part of Target’s support to our communities, we’re excited to partner with Tesla on a pilot test at select Target stores to incorporate Tesla Energy Storage as part of our energy strategy,” said David Hughes, senior group manager, Energy Management, Target. “Tesla’s cutting-edge technology offers unique benefits to powering these stores, most importantly relieving stress from the electrical grid at peak times, furthering Target’s investment in designing and operating energy-efficient and sustainable buildings.”

Jackson Family Wines
Jackson Family Wines (JFW) is a collection of premium and luxury wineries best known for its acclaimed Kendall-Jackson Winery. Sustainability is intentional at JFW; we have taken a two-fold approach to energy management at our wineries by improving operational efficiency across all levels of our organization and reinvesting those savings in onsite renewable energy systems.

With Tesla’s stationary energy storage solution, JFW can significantly mitigate energy use around four areas that account for the most consumption in our winemaking process: refrigeration/cooling, lighting, compressed air and process water treatment. Each battery pack will draw electricity from the grid or our onsite solar arrays during times of low demand and store it for later use to smooth out energy spikes.

EnerNoc
EnerNOC’s energy intelligence software helps customers make the most of Tesla’s energy storage systems by integrating them into an overall energy management strategy. EnerNOC’s software easily integrates with any site that has a Tesla energy storage system, optimizing battery usage during high price periods and enabling customers to utilize batteries for demand charge management and demand response.

Tesla Energy for Utility applications

For utility scale systems, 100kWh battery blocks are grouped to scale from 500kWh to 10MWh+. These systems are capable of 2hr or 4hr continuous net discharge power using grid tied bi-directional inverters.

Systems support applications including peak shaving, load shifting and demand response for commercial customers while offering, renewable firming and a variety of grid services at utility scales.

Tesla Utility Storage is designed to:

Firm up renewable generation by reconciling the intermittency of power from these sources and storing excess capacity to dispatch when it’s needed.
Increase resource capacity. Utility Storage acts as on-demand distributed power generation, contributing to the overall generating capacity while adding resiliency to the grid.
Ramp Control. Utility Storage can act as a buffer while the power output from a large generation source is ramping up or down, delivering power instantly to smoothly transition output to the required level.
Improve power quality by preventing fluctuations from propagating to downstream loads.
Defer costly and time-consuming infrastructure upgrades.
Manage peak demand by deploying power within seconds or milliseconds.
Utility Projects with Tesla Energy

Advanced Microgrid Solutions (grid resource adequacy)
“Tesla’s bold approach to advancing battery technology will change the way we build our cities forever” -Susan Kennedy, co-founder and CEO of Advanced Microgrid Solutions.

OnCor (microgrid)
Oncor realizes the electric industry is changing as well as our customers’ needs for electric service. Oncor believes the only way to prepare for customers’ future needs is with a flexible, adaptive electric grid which can only be accomplished through the use of technology like advanced meters, smart grid and electric storage. Tesla has long demonstrated its ability to be a technology leader which is why Oncor has looked to Tesla for grid-scale storage. Oncor looks forward to working with Tesla to make sure the electric grid meets all customers’ future needs.

Southern California Edison
Edison International is proud of its efforts to help create a market for battery storage systems and its work with Tesla to bring this technology to customers. Southern California Edison (SCE), the regulated utility subsidiary of Edison International, has developed the nation’s largest battery storage system and has contracts in place for an additional 264 megawatts of storage, including projects using Tesla batteries. SCE is working with Tesla on three demonstration projects that can help drive down the cost of battery storage systems for residential and business customers, as well as EV drivers. These demand response demonstration projects will test communication capabilities and explore rebates to customers who allow SCE to manage their battery charging in order to increase the use of renewable energy while ensuring continued grid reliability.

SoCore Energy, a subsidiary of Edison Energy, which is Edison International’s portfolio of competitive businesses and equity interests in emerging companies, is working with a client to design and install Tesla batteries at two of their retail properties in Southern California. The sites will feature Tesla battery units that will be charged with electricity from the grid during nonpeak hours at night. The two battery systems will be able to store up to 400 kilowatts and 600 kilowatts, respectively. SoCore Energy is working with its client to identify additional locations for potential battery installations. SoCore Energy is not the same company as Southern California Edison, the utility, and SoCore Energy is not regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission.

AES (solar paired at a utility level)
Tesla Motors' commitment to battery production will help meet the growing demand for energy storage; as a launch partner, we are particularly pleased to leverage the home battery product across our distributed energy platforms. AES has been providing grid-scale energy storage solutions for seven years, building on more than 30 years of experience serving utilities with power solutions that improve lives.The AES Advancion™ digital control system for energy storage manages best-in-class batteries and other components for both centralized and distributed storage systems. In addition, AES’ world-class capability in engineering, installation and operations and maintenance enable turnkey energy storage solutions from KWs to hundreds of MW for utilities and end customers.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[rage2]

All this hype for building UPS's and batteries? And how did this thread go from a stock play to a Tesla love fest? :rofl:

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by rage2
All this hype for building UPS's and batteries?

But it's Steve Jobs.... I meant Elon Musk.

I think if Apple is doing good, so will Tesla. Both are exactly the same just in different fields.

This is nothing new. Germany has tons of these systems already. Bosch just doesn't have the sexiness of Tesla.

Initial market for this battery will be small. i'm sure people with solar panels will jump on this to be more off grid. And since I have almost $3K worth of UPS at home, a central one isn't that bad of an idea either.

[themack89]

Originally posted by Xtrema
Germany has tons of these systems already. Bosch just doesn't have the sexiness of Tesla.

Haha, that's actually a really good point.

Did anybody else [except for me] forget that Musk also owns a $6Bil Solar Company? ... I'm speaking of SolarCity Corp. The interesting part is how this company hasn't been mentioned to me by anybody for a very long time, nor have I read about them in any headlines. Wouldn't it have been much more logical to pull off a project like this through SolarCity?

Yes... But as Xtrema mentions, Tesla is sexy. I think you're right, its all marketing--but the plan has been the same all along.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by themack89
Wouldn't it have been much more logical to pull off a project like this through SolarCity?

For 1, SolarCity's brand is lacking. SolarCity is also surviving on Tesla funds due to Superchargers builts.

This home battery's grand plan is to keep battery productions going at the Gigafactory and to keep the production volume high and cost lower which in return making a $30K Model 3 possible in the future.

IMO, I'm not sure how big this demand would be from homes or any areas with enough brownouts to justify a huge home UPS.

[J-D]

It's an interesting path and Tesla might just pull it off, but I'm curious to see how the revenue streams will play out longer term.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEBIRq_WAAEw-m8.jpg:large

Timely photo anyways. Someone drove a Tesla into a Starbucks in the SW today :D

[Tik-Tok]

Originally posted by J-D

Timely photo anyways. Someone drove a Tesla into a Starbucks in the SW today :D

AGAIN??? :rofl:

That starbucks has been run into at LEAST 3 times. Makes sense though, Glenmore landing is full of the elderly. Every time I'm in that parking lot I narrowly avoid an accident.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[HiTempguy1]

I have nothing to add to this thread besides I love your new avatar phreak :rofl:

[rage2]

Originally posted by Xtrema
IMO, I'm not sure how big this demand would be from homes or any areas with enough brownouts to justify a huge home UPS.
It's too bad Enron isn't around anymore, otherwise the entire state of California can drive the demand up to meet production targets of Gigafactory 1.

[Maxt]

http://www.lockheedmartin.ca/us/products/compact-fusion.html

I would rather invest in clean local generation that is going to take me off the grid permanently rather than something with a low duty cycle and that only offers part time grid disconnection. If you can cut the ties to the large scale transmission grid permanently, that gets rid of some of monthly charges a household gets, even if the household uses no energy via the grid. If the local generation can provide enough energy for heating needs as well, say bye to your gas bill, but it'll be a while before we can compare the economics of compact fusion. The reduction in line loss alone would be an interesting calculation.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[CapnCrunch]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Ouch, that has to sting


Never been a fan of Telsa stock... it just seems like a lot of smoke and mirrors

Sometimes I think a Psychiatry degree is more useful in the stock markets than a Finance degree. Understanding human emotion is far more valuable.

[riander5]

Originally posted by rage2

It's too bad Enron isn't around anymore, otherwise the entire state of California can drive the demand up to meet production targets of Gigafactory 1.

I was going to post that Tesla reminds me of Enron... except i suppose they do make cars but other than that... hype hype hype hype

[RedDawn]

2015 Q1 Results Are Out

- Model X is finally here! Slated for Q3!
- Blew past all production and sales estimates.
- Battery business is already generating large amounts of cash from powering Amazon alone.

http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/tesla-model-x-1.jpg

[mazdavirgin]

Q1 out and still a stinker of a stock.

Let's recap?

Market Cap of ~29 Billion

They lost 154 million in Q1...

So you're all buying a company that's losing money and has a market cap so skewed that it's "apparently" worth 3 times more than Encana.

I just can't :facepalm: enough.

[Sugarphreak]

....

[supe]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I see that Tesla has shed close to 10% off their stocks in the last few days :rofl:

Up 20% since this comment, who's laughing now.

[mazdavirgin]

Originally posted by supe


Up 20% since this comment, who's laughing now.

Me at all the fools buying vapor who are going to lose their shirts.

If you think that company is worth what it is currently trading at then boy do I have a bridge to sell you. :rofl:

[Sugarphreak]

...

[RedDawn]

Originally posted by mazdavirgin


Me at all the fools buying vapor who are going to lose their shirts.

If you think that company is worth what it is currently trading at then boy do I have a bridge to sell you. :rofl:

Say what you want. I retired today on the long-shot options I've been accumulating at $300. I'm 33.

The scary part is that Tesla is only getting started and they're already worth this much. Tesla and Solar City's long term plan of an electric, self-driving, car share fleet in every city is slowly coming to fruition and it's going to turn the world on its head while making Tesla the largest company on the planet.

Calgary is an early victim of this process. Insurance companies, parking lot owners, truck stops, highway motels, Uber, UPS,FedEx, traffic law enforcement revenue, public transit etc....the money currently flowing into so many industries will dry up. Tesla will either directly assume the revenue from a obsoleted industry or become an essential building block for many others (Eg Selling self-driving semis to UPS and FedEx). Either way, they're going to be huge.

[Env-Consultant]

Originally posted by RedDawn
Sweet. Got my 40k back plus more.
http://i.imgur.com/dhMeAzK.gif

[Type_S1]

You went from being upset about losing 40k to retiring? Something smells fishy. I could retire today as well...would run out of money in 3 years but I could say I retired! MJ came out of retirement....so can I!

[mazdavirgin]

Originally posted by RedDawn
Say what you want. I retired today on the long-shot options I've been accumulating at $300. I'm 33.


:rolleyes: Sure you did... Anyways even if you did as the saying goes even a broken clock is right twice a day. Doesn't mean the valuation makes any sense. What you were doing was gambling and sometimes people get lucky but that's all that was pure dumb unadulterated luck. However if you want to believe you have some form of prescience or whatnot more power to you. You can delude yourself all you want.


Originally posted by RedDawn
The scary part is that Tesla is only getting started and they're already worth this much. Tesla and Solar City's long term plan of an electric, self-driving, car share fleet in every city is slowly coming to fruition and it's going to turn the world on its head while making Tesla the largest company on the planet.

Calgary is an early victim of this process. Insurance companies, parking lot owners, truck stops, highway motels, Uber, UPS,FedEx, traffic law enforcement revenue, public transit etc....the money currently flowing into so many industries will dry up. Tesla will either directly assume the revenue from a obsoleted industry or become an essential building block for many others (Eg Selling self-driving semis to UPS and FedEx). Either way, they're going to be huge.

Tesla is going to become the biggest company on the planet? Uhuh... Yeah that's hilarious. Because you know no one else is doing anything with electric cars, solar cells, batteries and self driving cars?

Oh shit... Nope they are not the only ones. *Gasp* Maybe this means that the valuation is totally out of wack! Unless you think they are somehow going to become this super monopoly because you believe the spin that Elon Musk is some sort of tech messiah? Guys a tool ridding on the coat tails of others. Just like Jobs they are not these omniscient leaders that revolutionize the world because they had an idea. No they are CEO's like all others useless paper pushers while the real work is done by the engineers/scientists.

Anyways you guys are so out of touch with reality that you really should not be investing in the market. It's quite clear you are not capable of taking a detached level headed rational outlook. No instead you have bought the spin.

Here's a perfect explanation of what is going through your head:


Cognitive Bias
Think of a cognitive bias as a rule of thumb that may or may not be factual. We’ve all seen movies where a thief wears a police uniform to pass through a security checkpoint. The real police officers assume that because the person is wearing a uniform like theirs, he must be a real police officer. That’s an example of a cognitive bias.

What does a fake cop have to do with your investment choices? You make the same types of assumptions that aren’t necessarily true. Here are some examples:

Confirmation Bias: Have you noticed that you put more weight into the opinions of those who agree with you? Investors do this too. How often have you analyzed a stock and later researched reports that supported your thesis instead of seeking out information that may poke holes in your opinion?

Gamblers’ Fallacy: Let’s assume that the S&P has closed to the upside five trading sessions in a row. You place a short trade on the SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY) because you believe chances are high that the market will drop on the sixth day. While it may happen, on a purely statistical basis, the past events don’t connect to future events. There may be other reasons why the sixth day will produce a down market; but by itself, the fact that the market is up five consecutive days is irrelevant.

Status-Quo Bias: Humans are creatures of habit. Resistance to change spills over to investment portfolios through the act of repeatedly coming back to the same stocks and ETFs instead of researching new ideas. Although investing in companies you understand is a sound investment strategy, having a short list of go-to products might limit your profit potential.

Negativity Bias: The bull market is alive and well, yet many investors have missed the rally because of the fear that it will reverse course. Negativity bias causes investors to put more weight on bad news than on good. Some might call this risk management, but this bias can cause the effects of risk to hold more weight than the possibility of reward.

Bandwagon Effect: Warren Buffett became one of the most successful investors in the world by resisting the bandwagon effect. His famous advice to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy is a denouncement of this bias. Going back to confirmation bias, investors feel better when they are investing along with the crowd. But as Buffett has proven, an opposite mentality, after exhaustive research, may prove more profitable.

Emotional Bias
You may notice some overlap between cognitive and emotional bias, but think about this: One reason cited by market watchers for disbelief that the current bull market is sustainable is a focus on the past. “I purchased a home in 2007 and got burned. Why would now be any different?” That’s an example of an emotional bias. Simply put, it is taking action based on feelings instead of fact. Here are a few examples:

Loss-Aversion Bias: Do you have a stock in your portfolio that is down so much that you can’t stomach the thought of selling? In reality, if you sold the stock, the money that is left could be reinvested into a higher quality stock. But because you don’t want to admit that the loss has gone from a computer screen to real money, you hold on in hopes that you will, one day, make it back to even.

Overconfidence Bias: “I have an edge that you (and others) do not.” A person with overconfidence bias believes that his/her skill as an investor is better than others' skills. Take, for example, the person who works in the pharmaceutical industry. He/she may believe in having the ability to trade within that sector at a higher level than other traders. The market has made fools out of the most respected traders. It can do the same to you.

Endowment Bias: Similar to loss aversion bias, this is the idea that what we do own is more valuable than what we do not. Remember that losing stock? Others in its sector may show more signs of health, but the investor won’t sell because he/she still believes, as before, it’s the best in its sector.


The stock market in the short term is a chaotic system that relies more on popularity than actual proper valuation. Thinking otherwise is the height of foolishness.

[killramos]

Originally posted by RedDawn


Say what you want. I retired today on the long-shot options I've been accumulating at $300. I'm 33.

The scary part is that Tesla is only getting started and they're already worth this much. Tesla and Solar City's long term plan of an electric, self-driving, car share fleet in every city is slowly coming to fruition and it's going to turn the world on its head while making Tesla the largest company on the planet.

Calgary is an early victim of this process. Insurance companies, parking lot owners, truck stops, highway motels, Uber, UPS,FedEx, traffic law enforcement revenue, public transit etc....the money currently flowing into so many industries will dry up. Tesla will either directly assume the revenue from a obsoleted industry or become an essential building block for many others (Eg Selling self-driving semis to UPS and FedEx). Either way, they're going to be huge.

So when did Supe make a second account :rofl:

[supe]

From another thread


Originally posted by killramos


And comparing performance of the 2011 M5 (which was top of its game when it came out) to the 2014 P85D

Wait for the G-body based M5 to come out in the next 18 months.

Still waiting..............


Meanwhile Tesla is making its fastest car, even faster.

http://www.carscoops.com/2015/07/tesla-introduces-new-even-faster-model.html

I wonder if your M5 will stand a chance even with a head start.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[killramos]

I'm still waiting for Tesla to make a car that can drive quickly for more than 3 minutes without overheating. Yea that happens :rolleyes: , and they are nowhere near fixing the problem.

Also any car will beat a Tesla with a head start, the start is the only thing it does well. You know why they only quote 0-60 times? Because the performance drops off like a rock past there. On a pull from 60 mph my 2 series will shame a P85D.

Maybe to get an accurate nurburgring time tesla can do it relay style and pass off a baton between cars every 2 minutes to make sure the cars don't go into limp mode :rofl:, let alone die lol.

As phreak said they shouldn't even be pursuing the performance market with these things. Driving to the local Starbucks for a soy latte and a hipster brag session is about all they are good for.

[mazdavirgin]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I'd still take an M5 any day of the week over a Tesla. Hell, given the choice I'd take my Fiesta over a Tesla.

You don't buy a Tesla to save money or to take it to the track. It's simply a status symbol type car. It's impractical and costs more than a conventional gas car to operate. If people really want to save money/the environment they would be buying small 4 banger econoboxes. There's simply no reason to be buying high end electric cars they make 0 sense. You will never recoup the upfront cost in gas savings.

[supe]

Originally posted by mazdavirgin


and costs more than a conventional gas car to operate.

This is just stupidly wrong.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[mazdavirgin]

Originally posted by supe


This is just stupidly wrong.

90k for a Telsa? 20k for a 4 banger econobox?

That's 70k for gas/maintenance over the life time of the car. Assuming you can charge your battery for free and no battery replacement? You are still behind when it comes to operating costs.

[supe]

Originally posted by mazdavirgin


90k for a Telsa? 20k for a 4 banger econobox?

That's 70k for gas/maintenance over the life time of the car. Assuming you can charge your battery for free and no battery replacement? You are still behind when it comes to operating costs.

You have a strange understanding of the word "operate"

[killramos]

Originally posted by mazdavirgin


90k for a Telsa? 20k for a 4 banger econobox?

That's 70k for gas/maintenance over the life time of the car. Assuming you can charge your battery for free and no battery replacement? You are still behind when it comes to operating costs.

bbbbbbut Tesla is the future!

We are about as close to an Iron Man suit as an affordable Tesla.

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by supe


You have a strange understanding of the word "operate"
Does he? You do know that operating costs include maintenance too, right?

[supe]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Are you just ignoring the cost of battery replacement?

12K USD, probably needs swapping out in 5~7 years. If you average that all out, it is about 2600$ CAD a year.

12k is for the 85 kw which is warranteed for 8 years (unlimited mileage).

Beyond that you would only have to replace it if it actually needs replacing.

The Tesla Roadster (older tech) batteries are aging better than expected, no reason to think current gen wouldn't be the same, or better.

Further, battery capacities are improving and costs are coming down. You can see the capacities get bigger where the Model S 60 -> 70 and now a 90 pack is being offered. As for price, the gigafactory will take care of that through economies of scale.

[supe]

Originally posted by Disoblige

Does he? You do know that operating costs include maintenance too, right?

Yes I do. A Tesla will be cheaper to operate than a comparably priced car, hands down.

No oil changes, waaaaay less parts to maintain, brakes will last much longer, and of course an electric motor is much more efficient than a combustion engine, which makes the cost of the electricity to power it a fraction of the gasoline equivalent.

[mazdavirgin]

Originally posted by supe


You have a strange understanding of the word "operate"

:nut:



Operating costs are the expenses which are related to the operation of a business, or to the operation of a device, component, piece of equipment or facility. They are the cost of resources used by an organization just to maintain its existence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_cost

[killramos]

http://www.factfixx.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/drink-the-kool-aid.jpg

Put your money where your mouth is Supe and buy one if you think buying a Tesla is such an incredible financial decision.

Prove us all wrong with the mad skrilla you will have from all the bills you think a Tesla will shit into your lap.

You could also buy the stock of a company that doesn't have a hope of profitability this decade to if that's such a good idea.

[supe]

Originally posted by mazdavirgin


:nut:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_cost

Yeah but how dumb is it to compare operating costs of a 90k car and a 20k car?

[supe]

Removed

[JRSC00LUDE]

Originally posted by supe
Yeah but how dumb is it to compare operating costs of a 90k car and a 20k car?

:confused:

At least you can buy a good, reliable, cheap to operate and maintain gas powered car for 20k. There's no way and no how a Tesla is a good financial decision. :rofl: But you're right, a 90K car SHOULD be less to operate than a 20K car over the long term, aren't you paying for quality?

[killramos]

Originally posted by supe


I've been in since 60, where is your money?

I dont invest in good intentions :rofl:

[supe]

Originally posted by JRSC00LUDE


:confused:

At least you can buy a good, reliable, cheap to operate and maintain gas powered car for 20k. There's no way and no how a Tesla is a good financial decision. :rofl: But you're right, a 90K car SHOULD be less to operate than a 20K car over the long term, aren't you paying for quality?

By this logic, I didn't know you were such a lover of our city's bike lanes. It's the best financial decision, wouldn't you say?

[JRSC00LUDE]

Originally posted by supe
By this logic, I didn't know you were such a lover of our city's bike lanes. It's the best financial decision, wouldn't you say?

Wow, you're being especially "thick" today.....go ahead and make some money on the dog and pony show, it doesn't mean their cars are anywhere close to worth it. Prove it wrong. :dunno:

EDIT - I am far from what could be considered stock market competent but, when's the last time a highly valued speculative stock with no earnings paid out in the end without busting? Serious question.

[rage2]

Where's this $90k coming from? A mildly optioned P85D is like $140k haha. Loaded with the new Ludicrous speed option, it's $153k.

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by rage2
Where's this $90k coming from? A mildly optioned P85D is like $140k haha. Loaded with the new Ludicrous speed option, it's $153k.
Model S 70

[supe]

Originally posted by rage2
Where's this $90k coming from? A mildly optioned P85D is like $140k haha. Loaded with the new Ludicrous speed option, it's $153k.

Where are you getting 153? I just speced one out and its 137... anyway not cheap but pretty good compared to other cars in its 0-60 range.

And of course cost to operate will be cheaper.