How to Lose an Election

[ExtraSlow]

Thought I'd start a new thread discussing the various ways in which the PC's lost this election. They certainly seemed very tone-deaf in the months of Jimmy's leadership. Every announcement they made seemed to piss people off.

I was certainly unimpressed with the floor-crossing and the way that was handled. Then the hand-picking of candidates smelled like some very heavy handed top-down management that was unnecessary.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by The National Post, May 5, 2015
How to shake a dynasty in 10 easy steps: The Alberta election and why it all went wrong for the Progressive Conservatives

Jen Gerson | May 6, 2015 9:37 AM ET


Alberta has elected an NDP majority government, ditching the PCs after more than four decades of rule. Pollsters staked their reputations on an NDP majority government — and, indeed, it was hard to imagine the Progressive Conservatives winning after running such a disastrous campaign. After 43 years in government, they hardly demonstrated more organizational aplomb than a pen of sad puppies begging for adoption. Few thought they could fail so hard, or so fast. But they did. Here’s how they shattered a dynasty in 10 easy steps:

1. Pick the wrong symbol of generational renewal

Alison Redford was supposed to be the leader who would revitalize the Tory government. She was a symbol of the province’s generational change, and its desire to play a more active role in Confederation. Unfortunately, she suffered from serious managerial deficits and entitlement problems; her tenure lasted about two years. She resigned last March amid a series of spending scandals.

2. Ignore your grassroots

The first experiment a failure, the PCs brought in Jim Prentice. A steady hand to right the keel. A respected Conservative MP and cabinet minister with none of the apparent sense of self-importance that plagued his predecessor, Prentice was the best on-paper leader the party could have asked for — and he was elected to the head of the party with only 23,000 votes, a fraction of the number that supported previous premiers. This should have been the first sign that the PCs were in trouble, and that their base had jumped ship during the reign of Redford. Prentice needed to fix his party; instead the lead-up to the election was dogged with infighting and questionable disqualifications of popular candidates, which further alienated devoted supporters and volunteers.

3. Hand-pick cabinet ministers. Put them in the wrong places

In a bid to consolidate his base of social conservatives, Prentice found Gordon Dirks — a former Saskatchewan politician with deep roots in the religious community. He then placed Dirks in one of the reddest of the Red Tory ridings in Calgary. After last October’s surprisingly competitive by-election, Dirks, then Education Minister, was called out by the ethics commissioner for punting modular classrooms in his riding to the top of the waiting list.

4. Cheat to win

Under the auspices of a de facto “merger” of right-wing parties, Prentice’s team orchestrated a hasty agreement between his party, and the struggling remnants of the upstart opposition Wildrose. In December, nine Wildrosers crossed the floor to the governing Tories, a collapse of opposition that was unprecedented in Canadian political history. Prentice failed to understand the significance of Wildrose to Albertans; to voters, that opposition represented the only real check on the PC’s ancient, entrenched and far-reaching power base. The Wildrosers’ defection was seen as opportunistic and underhanded. Further, the move alienated the left-leaning coalition that came together to vote PC in 2012 to keep Wildrose out of power.

5. Blame Albertans

Prentice responded to a catastrophic drop in oil prices by telling Albertans they needed to “look in the mirror” to understand the cause of the province’s financial woes. Albertans had been enjoying the oil-plumped fruits of government spending for far too long, he said. This may be true, but it failed to acknowledge that the actual controllers of that spending have been, for two generations, the PCs themselves. The only action Albertans need to look in the mirror about is the habit of voting the PCs to power.

6. Over promise. Under deliver.

After January, Prentice went on a doomsday blitz to warn every Albertan within two feet of a radio or a television that an austerity budget was coming. A once-in-a-generation budget. A transformational plan. After Albertans became resigned to massive hikes and rollbacks, Prentice then dropped a bit of wishy washy weakness that neither raised taxes and spending enough for the left, nor cut deeply enough for the right. Add a raft of unpopular tax increases that let corporations off the hook, the PC’s remaining right-wing base was not only alienated, but also betrayed

7. Anger? What anger? Is that anger?

Prentice ignored the quiet competence of the NDP’s Rachel Notley until it was too late. He chose to dismiss the fact that of the nine Wildrose floor crossers, most quit before they could face doomed nomination battles. Of the six who stuck it out, only three survived. Angry Progressive Conservatives (and a few angry Wildrosers) turfed Danielle Smith in her Highwood nomination battle, casting her from political life. The control panel was beeping. Angry red buttons everywhere.

8. Go to the polls anyway. You’re the PCs, right?

Prentice disregarded his party’s own fixed election date to call the vote a year ahead of schedule. He dropped the writ on April 7. Ostensibly, he said, this was about the transformational budget that wasn’t. In reality, the economy was tanking along with the oil price, and this was his moment to secure a four-year mandate in the face of a weakened opposition.

9. Change your budget. But not enough

Any pretence that the election was about that budget was destroyed on April 21, when Prentice rolled back an unpopular plan to reduce a charitable tax credit. What he didn’t touch were those corporate tax rates, despite the fact that raising corporate taxes remains widely popular. This gave the NDP a real policy stick. The beatings commenced. Two days later, Prentice challenged Notley on those corporate taxes and, after misstating the party’s figures, told the personable, likeable female leader that “math is difficult.”

10. When all else fails, try panicked fearmongering

Terrifying the bejesus out of Albertans over the prospect of an NDP economy might have worked if the PCs hadn’t been so bad at managing the budget themselves. There’s material there: the NDP is proposing a royalty review, and its plans for corporate tax hikes will put Alberta closer to Quebec and Ontario’s rate. That said, the PC’s entire campaign strategy missed the plot; when he came in, Prentice had a year and a half to fix the party, build a rapport, and establish trust with voters. He failed on every count, instead rushing a vote on a record that he hadn’t yet established.

Even if the PCs secure a majority government on Tuesday, faith in the party’s latest saviour will have been irrevocably shaken. Now all that’s left is to dance to the sound of the sad trombone music in the distance, and to await the end.

[Mibz]

Spelling is hard

[ExtraSlow]

Truly it is.

[JRSC00LUDE]

He chose to dismiss the fact that of the nine Wildrose floor crossers, most quit before they could face doomed nomination battles. Of the six who stuck it out, only three survived

Good math there, three is MOST of nine. :nut:

[CapnCrunch]

First, I think running the richest province in the country and having planned your budget so poorly, that a few months into an oil price crash you have no choice but to raise taxes, is the biggest reason for me.

Second, raising taxes and fees and then calling an election right after was a bad decision.

Third, our provincial education system is a joke, top to bottom. There were promises made last election that weren't kept.

[dirtsniffer]

Probably why they took down their campaign the day after the election

[ZenOps]

Blame the illuminati.

UK is up next, might see a major upset there too (many are leaning far left, many far right)

[revelations]

The PC arrogance was simply staggering. Prentice wanted it all, or nothing and now resigned his newly-elected MLA seat and is leaving public life. Essentially he had zero intent to do his civic, elected duty - just to pander to the O&G market.

Dont let the door mirror hit you on the way out you quitter.

Someone made the comment that the NDP is now filled with inexperienced people. Great! No more old-boys club or the 40 years of cronyism.

The ministers dont have to analyze raw data as they have staff for this. They just are given option A or B and are told the pros and cons of each.

[phreezee]

The tipping point was the great betrayal. They swept the by elections and got greedy.

[freshprince1]

Originally posted by revelations
The PC arrogance was simply staggering. Prentice wanted it all, or nothing and now resigned his newly-elected MLA seat and is leaving public life. Essentially he had zero intent to do his civic, elected duty - just to pander to the O&G market.

Dont let the door mirror hit you on the way out you quitter.

Someone made the comment that the NDP is now filled with inexperienced people. Great! No more old-boys club or the 40 years of cronyism.

The ministers dont have to analyze raw data as they have staff for this. They just are given option A or B and are told the pros and cons of each.

I agree with your statements, but would just like to point out that it is not a surprise that Prentice stepped down, in fact, when this happens it is expected and is Political etiquette. Handing the PC a debilitating loss, would you really want that leader to stick around? When parties transfer out of power, the leader should - and usually does - step down. This is the reset button we need in this province.

I hope the PC's die off entirely and a new center-right condervative movement takes it's place...or Wildrose moderates a bit to win the next election and govern in a way that truly reflects the conservative majority ideology in Alberta.

[suntan]

#1: Don't call an election during economic downturn.
#2: Don't call an election unless required.

Gotta say Dirks is a moron, can't believe Prentice actually handpicked that doofus.

[revelations]

Prentice resigned as the leader AND quit his seat.

He shouldve just kept his MLA position as a back bencher to represent his constituents - instead he quits that and now the taxpayers are on the hook for another byelection? What a complete, arrogant douche.



"I've never seen someone walk away from the seat that they were just elected in to," he said. "And the people that voted for him, the thousands of people who voted for him, have some questions that are going to need to be answered."

"When you put your name on the ballot you don't put your name on the ballot in good times only. It is something that you have to stand up and you say I'm going to serve the people of the province of Alberta, people of Calgary-Foothills, because it's the right thing to do, not just because I get to be the premier."


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jim-prentice-resignation-as-mla-too-fast-strategist-says-1.3063084

[masoncgy]

Telling Albertans to look in the mirror wasn't wise either.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by revelations
Someone made the comment that the NDP is now filled with inexperienced people. Great! No more old-boys club or the 40 years of cronyism.

The one good thing of this election. The muscle memory of voting for a single party is gone. Each election here after will get much more participation and exciting.

I would like a reformed WR that's pulls out of social conservatism but I don't think it will. So WR will remain as opposition because it will never get enough urban votes.

The best bet right now is Alberta party. Hopefully it will pulls back to the right if NDP doesn't do that already.

[msommers]

Originally posted by CapnCrunch
First, I think running the richest province in the country and having planned your budget so poorly, that a few months into an oil price crash you have no choice but to raise taxes, is the biggest reason for me.

Second, raising taxes and fees and then calling an election right after was a bad decision.

Third, our provincial education system is a joke, top to bottom. There were promises made last election that weren't kept.

#1 for me as well. I normally vote conservative but it was becoming more and more apparent that nothing had changed since last downturn, and the one before that, and...

So we've swung to the other extreme of the scale. It's not the answer but hopefully in 4 years the NDP can find some middle ground or there will a party showing that it can and we vote them in.

[frizzlefry]

Alberta Party was my preference but I voted strategically, WR. I figured we would have a minority NDP gov't and without a majority the entitlement issues of the PC and ultra right wing factions of WR wouldn't be an issue in driving policy. They would agree on common conservative values and the faults of both would be null and void. And their votes combined would outweigh any crazy NDP ideas. Opps.

I don't mind the platform the NDP ran on. Taxes still lower than other provinces, no one would actually pick up their ball and go home, and they won't. Two things ruined the PC party for me. a) the mirror comment. Fawk off. b) that pathetic display where industry execs got together to threaten voters with the cataclysmic repercussions of voting NDP. It was a sad, sad display. I am a conservative/borderline libertarian and believe in government not messing with private sector business. A bunch of lawyers (or with the NDP art/poli-sci majors) have no business messing with the direction of private companies. But that door swings both ways. For those CEOs to go out there and pander/threaten people was WAY out of line and hurt the PCs in a big way.

My major concern with the NDP is not taxes but their idea for more refineries. Shows a complete lack of understanding of the business. Not profitable. Not doable at 60 bucks a barrel or even 100. And we won't see 100 for some time. Yes, the PCs were using political might for the pipelines. But that was a political problem. The industry wanted to go ahead but politics stood in the way. So you engage a politician to solve a political problem. Building more refineries is not a political issue, its a business issue. For them to think they can interject and actually try and encourage more refineries based on their vast knowledge of poli-sci or arts is troublesome. The PC and WR are not qualified either but they never had grand schemes to build more.

I'm ok with the NDP platform for the most part. But I don't like the idea that they think they have any sort of knowledge/experience to shape the oil industry. They can advocate sure, but saying "we want more refineries" is guiding something they are not qualified to guide.

[HiTempguy1]

Originally posted by frizzlefry
The PC and WR are not qualified either but they never had grand schemes to build more.


You mean besides the one they already have Albertan's on the hook for (northwest)?

[ImTherious]

Lloydminster Bi-Provincial Upgrader Fiasco (http://esask.uregina.ca/entry/husky_energy.html)

"After encountering a series of operating losses, in 1994 the Alberta and Canadian governments wrote off their investments in the Upgrader and transferred equity to Husky and the Saskatchewan government, in return for modest buy-out payments, an end to liability for future losses, and provision for a specific claim on future profits."

The government has no role in business - only the requirement to make sure that commerce is conducted without fraud.

Do we need to mention the $500 million Fast Cats fiasco by the BC NDP in the 90s?

[ExtraSlow]

Ugh, refineries and upgraders are terrible business. The NWRedwater one is a disaster.

[cloud7]

Calling the election was the biggest mistake. Prentice should have done what he proposed to do in the budget. He did not need a mandate from Albertans to do it. One year later, crude oil price will be higher and people would probably be less upset and they probably would do better at the polls.