OPEC deal inked.

[Darkane]

No thread on this yet, mind you I didn't search lol just checked new posts.

Anyway OPEC to cut 1.2 amongst themselves with an additional 600 from non members.

A total of 1.8million barrels per day out of the market should (if number aren't falsified) put us back to balance and $60 by the summer (IMO).

Oil is having an epic day also. 10%+

[Masked Bandit]

Wow, up $4 today alone. Price at the pumps should be up $.15 by the time I go home.

[Dave P]

http://www.malibuboats.com/

WE BACK BAY BEEEEE

[msommers]

Hasn't OPEC historically made promises they never kept?

[Darkane]

Originally posted by msommers
Hasn't OPEC historically made promises they never kept?

Yeah. But the last coordinated cut they made was Jan '09 and it worked.

Let's hope we see even half of what they propose.

[msommers]

I hope so too.

[finboy]

Ecoboosts and truck nuts for everyone!

[Darkane]

Originally posted by finboy
Ecoboosts and truck nuts for everyone!

Or you know, at $60 let's get people employed again. Haha.

[suntan]

Double meat Subway tomorrow? One can dream.

[HiTempguy1]

Originally posted by finboy
Ecoboosts and truck nuts for everyone!

They won't be able to afford the gas when we are paying $1.20/L at only $60/barrel :nut:

[BandW]

Does this mean Alberta households can go back to piling up debt?

[rx7_turbo2]

About time. I've been surviving off regular size Mucho Burrito's for far too long, back to Mucho size!!!

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by msommers
Hasn't OPEC historically made promises they never kept? This is true, but production figures from January (when these cuts are supposed to take effect) won't be out until late February, and I think OPEC is gambling that by then, the market will have balanced itself, and they will have made billions in the meantime.

[Darkane]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
This is true, but production figures from January (when these cuts are supposed to take effect) won't be out until late February, and I think OPEC is gambling that by then, the market will have balanced itself, and they will have made billions in the meantime.

Probably right. Russia is banking on that for sure.

If our dollar remains .74 or so at $60 WTI believe me another boom cycle is coming for us. Just the fat trimming during this bust has lowered opex by a lot. Vendors and services won't be raising pricing for a while because of the competition. If you were lucky enough to survive good times ahead and new job for the people who didn't.

[msommers]

Originally posted by suntan
Double meat Subway tomorrow? One can dream.

I don't even want the lobster sub but if I've got the money I need to spend it somehow!

[suntan]

Originally posted by Darkane


Probably right. Russia is banking on that for sure.

If our dollar remains .74 or so at $60 WTI believe me another boom cycle is coming for us. Just the fat trimming during this bust has lowered opex by a lot. Vendors and services won't be raising pricing for a while because of the competition. If you were lucky enough to survive good times ahead and new job for the people who didn't. 2005: Holy shit, oil's $50!

2014: Holy shit, oil's $50!

[Darkane]

Originally posted by suntan
2005: Holy shit, oil's $50!

2014: Holy shit, oil's $50!

Come on man, I know what you're saying but seriously THIS is whats needed. Are you in O&G?

BTW if $50 was steady OPEC wouldn't cut.

[Epididymitis]

Originally posted by rx7_turbo2
About time. I've been surviving off regular size Mucho Burrito's for far too long, back to Mucho size!!!


Buddy i know just what you mean, ive had to buy no name brand ramen for the last two years. Im 'bout to ride dat ichiban train.

[Gestalt]

Won't make a difference. The Opec cut will just be matched by more US shale production, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq.

Then Saudi Arabia will get pissed it's still hemorrhaging money, and they'll crank up production.

Trying to manipulate equilibrium with phony supply cuts never works long term.

Saudi will try anything during the privatization of Aramco to raize prices, to raise the max they get for the stock offering. It will be short lived.

There won't be a recovery, unless America creates a war Iraq or iran, Saudi etc.

[Gestalt]

Originally posted by Darkane


Come on man, I know what you're saying but seriously THIS is whats needed. Are you in O&G?

BTW if $50 was steady OPEC wouldn't cut.

A friend is taking a alternative energy, wind power seminar this weekend, and I'm doing a Solar course next month.

There's always something to fall back on.

[redblack]

Even if people get hired back I think they will be coming back to significant wage cuts

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Gestalt


A friend is taking a alternative energy, wind power seminar this weekend, and I'm doing a Solar course next month.

There's always something to fall back on.

Not in Trump's America or Kenny's Alberta!

[Darkane]

Originally posted by Gestalt
Won't make a difference. The Opec cut will just be matched by more US shale production, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq.

Then Saudi Arabia will get pissed it's still hemorrhaging money, and they'll crank up production.

Trying to manipulate equilibrium with phony supply cuts never works long term.

Saudi will try anything during the privatization of Aramco to raize prices, to raise the max they get for the stock offering. It will be short lived.

There won't be a recovery, unless America creates a war Iraq or iran, Saudi etc.

Google one of the articles and read it.

A lot of those countries are involved in cuts. But to save you time Russia and Iraq are among the production cuts. Total non OPEC 600,000 and OPEC 1.2.

This was meant as an optimistic thread not pessimistic.

[Gestalt]

Originally posted by Xtrema


Not in Trump's America or Kenny's Alberta!

Trump is on record saying the Oil industry is corrupt, and run by gangsters.

What other industry is price fixing not only legal, but enthusiasticly embraced.
What other industries price is at least 35% due to speculators, and phony demand in the markets.

Kenny, well he's not a player.

[Gestalt]

Originally posted by Darkane


Google one of the articles and read it.

A lot of those countries are involved in cuts. But to save you time Russia and Iraq are among the production cuts. Total non OPEC 600,000 and OPEC 1.2.

This was meant as an optimistic thread not pessimistic.

go on facebook, and look up phil's stock world. Todays article will put some reality back into your optmism. :rofl:

[pheoxs]

Haha figures, ride out the downturn and moving to Van in the spring so of course this will be when things turn around and head back upward.

Here's hoping it holds out and the other countries don't boost production.

The 600k barrels being cut by non-members, any word where that is from? I can't imagine the US is involved in any of this.

[msommers]

IMO, Alberta needs to start pumping money into geothermal research and development.

[Gestalt]

Originally posted by msommers
IMO, Alberta needs to start pumping money into geothermal research and development.

I googled that a few weeks ago, and I was surprised that it wasnt what I thought it was.

I always thought they had to drll way down and hit something hot. I had no idea that all it takes is 12 feet and a loop field in some instances.

[Maxt]

Originally posted by Gestalt


I googled that a few weeks ago, and I was surprised that it wasnt what I thought it was.

I always thought they had to drll way down and hit something hot. I had no idea that all it takes is 12 feet and a loop field in some instances.
Two different types of "geothermal", one is drilling down to find instant usable heat, the second is refrigerating the ground to get the heat of a piping field.
Thestandard refrigerating method is a dud in Alberta, the shallow ground temps are too low and dry. I've worked on a pile of them.

[ZenOps]

Oil *is* corrupt and run by gangsters.

Thing is, even if you pushed over all the business to altruistic angels they would also quickly turn into corrupt gangsters.

Its like once you've baptized someone in a pool of crude oil, no amount of holy water will wash it off.

[Darkane]

Originally posted by pheoxs
Haha figures, ride out the downturn and moving to Van in the spring so of course this will be when things turn around and head back upward.

Here's hoping it holds out and the other countries don't boost production.

The 600k barrels being cut by non-members, any word where that is from? I can't imagine the US is involved in any of this.

Russia's good for 300. Not sure where the rest is coming from.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by suntan
Double meat Subway tomorrow? One can dream.
You know the recession's been bad when we start referring to that glue that Subway sells as "meat."


Originally posted by redblack
Even if people get hired back I think they will be coming back to significant wage cuts
I thought this too. Based on what I've seen for re-hires, people are trying to get contractors in for cheap, but not employees. Can't really hire someone for 60% of their value and keep all the other people doing the same job at the company that much higher.

[SkiBum5.0]

Originally posted by Gestalt


Trump is on record saying the Oil industry is corrupt, and run by gangsters.

What other industry is price fixing not only legal, but enthusiasticly embraced.
What other industries price is at least 35% due to speculators, and phony demand in the markets.

Kenny, well he's not a player.

Your focused on the wrong industry if you think the energy companies are the ones price fixing. Governments and Financial markets are responsible for the pricing. Energy companies just fulfill the demand. And anytime you quote a Facebook reference to support your position you should lose life points.

[Gestalt]

Originally posted by SkiBum5.0


Your focused on the wrong industry if you think the energy companies are the ones price fixing. Governments and Financial markets are responsible for the pricing. Energy companies just fulfill the demand. And anytime you quote a Facebook reference to support your position you should lose life points.

Phil is amazing, and can be seen on TV and financial reports and shows. But his Facebook updates are free, you don't need to pay or sign up.

[max_boost]

Great news. This is going to create more young Beyond Millionaires! :bigpimp:

[benyl]

Oil hits $50 this morning and of course gas prices follow suit.

[RealJimmyJames]

my stocks are skyrocketing! Might get chicken AND beef on my edo today.

[Gestalt]

Originally posted by RealJimmyJames
my stocks are skyrocketing! Might get chicken AND beef on my edo today.

Better cash out next day or two.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-oil-asia-idUSKBN13Q40K

[suntan]

A 1.2 million barrel cut effectively kills the surplus.

World goes through almost 94 million barrel A DAY. The rate of increase of oil usage is slowing down, THAT DOES NOT MEAN that oil usage is going down. Comprehend?

Oil demand is almost completely inelastic, small changes in supply can cause large changes in price because since the world can't function without it, increases in prices cause buyers to purchase more in advance.

Fucking hell I hate explaining basic, first motherfucking week macroeconomics.

[Swank]

Originally posted by Feruk
Can't really hire someone for 60% of their value and keep all the other people doing the same job at the company that much higher. I think they can once EI dries up. Income vs no income will have some people taking what they can get. Bad for long term retention, good for cheap labor until money starts rolling in again.

[suntan]

Hard to say, wages are sticky, people will in fact refuse jobs that have material wage decreases.

[rage2]

Originally posted by suntan
A 1.2 million barrel cut effectively kills the surplus.

World goes through almost 94 million barrel A DAY. The rate of increase of oil usage is slowing down, THAT DOES NOT MEAN that oil usage is going down. Comprehend?

Oil demand is almost completely inelastic, small changes in supply can cause large changes in price because since the world can't function without it, increases in prices cause buyers to purchase more in advance.

Fucking hell I hate explaining basic, first motherfucking week macroeconomics.
I dunno if you read the article, I'm guessing not, because it suggests US increasing production which negates the cut restoring the surplus.

[suntan]

No one wanted a surplus other than the originator of the surplus - Saudi Arabia.

Now that they got their asses hoisted by their own petard, they're now the ones that need the surplus gone ASAP.

Sharia law costs money, you know! Fucking free healthcare for all followers of Allah!

[dtrieu]

Originally posted by suntan
No one wanted a surplus other than the originator of the surplus - Saudi Arabia.

Now that they got their asses hoisted by their own petard, they're now the ones that need the surplus gone ASAP.

Sharia law costs money, you know! Fucking free healthcare for all followers of Allah!

Their break even on a barrel of oil is probably close to 1/10th of what the US is. If they really wanted to, they could flood the market with even more production and wait till all the US companies bleed out. They're better at producing oil, simple economics would say that the US should cut down their production, not the Saudis.

[suntan]

No, they can't just "wait till all the US companies bleed out" , because they're also bleeding like crazy. Their deficit last year was $100billion.

If course it costs them nothing to extract oil. The problem is they spend like fucking mad. I just told you, Sharia law costs money. Like what do you think enforcing the word of the Koran is free?

[Darkane]

Originally posted by dtrieu


Their break even on a barrel of oil is probably close to 1/10th of what the US is. If they really wanted to, they could flood the market with even more production and wait till all the US companies bleed out. They're better at producing oil, simple economics would say that the US should cut down their production, not the Saudis.

Nah. What people don't realize is it costs less to produce oil than ever.

Read this:

http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2016/04/husky-thermal-oil-project-operating-costs-at-8-dollars-per-barrel/

The reason companies are still not pushing new capex is because of the price uncertainty. It's impossible to hedge if oil price is up and down.

Let's see $55 steady, and like I said we'll be back. Companies without or very little debt have been able to survive this downturn. They'll continue to survive at these prices, and thrive if prices stabilize.

[dtrieu]

Originally posted by Darkane


Nah. What people don't realize is it costs less to produce oil than ever.

Read this:

http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2016/04/husky-thermal-oil-project-operating-costs-at-8-dollars-per-barrel/

The reason companies are still not pushing new capex is because of the price uncertainty. It's impossible to hedge if oil price is up and down.

Let's see $55 steady, and like I said we'll be back. Companies without or very little debt have been able to survive this downturn. They'll continue to survive at these prices, and thrive if prices stabilize.

I don't disagree with that, but I was thinking about US drilling. Mainly the Eagle Ford Shale oil that has led to the massive jump in production and drilling. Though companies are getting better than expected production from the frac'ing in this area, the cost of acquiring this play + glass tower + frac'cing costs. Their costs are a lot higher than the Saudis.

[riander5]

Everyone knows the saudis can extract for dirt cheap. The problem they have that US producers dont have, is that running saudi arabia is a fucking lot more expensive than keeping an oil company afloat. (even if the saudis use slave labour for anything that would make their lazy populace need to raise a fat finger)

Stupid saudis

[Darkane]

Originally posted by dtrieu


I don't disagree with that, but I was thinking about US drilling. Mainly the Eagle Ford Shale oil that has led to the massive jump in production and drilling. Though companies are getting better than expected production from the frac'ing in this area, the cost of acquiring this play + glass tower + frac'cing costs. Their costs are a lot higher than the Saudis.

Oh yeah. Agreed Saudi Can produce for much less but the gap isnt as large as people make it out to be. I posted that article to illustrate that shale oil opex is probably half of what people think as breakeven. It depends on the companies debts and leverages. They have to include all costs and overheads right. As I said earlier some companies they are debt free can produce for cheap.

Numbers aren't as black and white as We wished they were lol.

[suntan]

Originally posted by dtrieu


I don't disagree with that, but I was thinking about US drilling. Mainly the Eagle Ford Shale oil that has led to the massive jump in production and drilling. Though companies are getting better than expected production from the frac'ing in this area, the cost of acquiring this play + glass tower + frac'cing costs. Their costs are a lot higher than the Saudis. Do you not understand how SA operates?

[Gestalt]

Originally posted by suntan
Do you not understand how SA operates?

Now that they are selling off and privatizing, how will it work? Royalty?

[suntan]

Originally posted by Gestalt


Now that they are selling off and privatizing, how will it work? Royalty? You realize that hasn't happened yet, it's just talk right now.

You give the Saudis too much credit, their entire gov't is run by fucking numbskulls.

Do you even know why that area is called "SAUDI" Arabia?

[Gestalt]

Originally posted by suntan
You realize that hasn't happened yet, it's just talk right now.

You give the Saudis too much credit, their entire gov't is run by fucking numbskulls.

Do you even know why that area is called "SAUDI" Arabia?

They will, that is almost a certainty. Their deficit is far too high, a nice IPO and stock/shares at some crazy multiple will make them far more money short term than any oil price south of $150 a barrel.

[Darkane]

$54

Saudis met again and said something that they were going to make even deeper cuts. Tomorrow will be interesting and come Tuesday and Wednesday for inventory reports we may see $55-56 this week.

I'm buying cookies with my sub for lunch.

[01RedDX]

.

[ExtraSlow]

I'm really interested to see if this shifts the price of oil futures at all.
Day traders and all the news media shout a lot about the spot price of oil, but very little is actually sold at that price. Futures pricing is what larger companies use to make investment decisions.

Last time I looked at the futures curve, it was almost totally flat from mid 2017 to the end of 2018 right at $60.

[Darkane]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I'm really interested to see if this shifts the price of oil futures at all.
Day traders and all the news media shout a lot about the spot price of oil, but very little is actually sold at that price. Futures pricing is what larger companies use to make investment decisions.

Last time I looked at the futures curve, it was almost totally flat from mid 2017 to the end of 2018 right at $60.

I believe it still is there. We can work with $60 no problems.

[ExtraSlow]

Yes, $60 is a decent spot for a lot of projects, but I'm just not used to seeing 18 months of totally flat futures. I haven't been tracking futures that long, but it feels unique to me anyway.

[suntan]

Well there is a lot of surplus, it's going to take a while for that to go down back to strategic reserve levels.

[suntan]

Originally posted by Gestalt


They will, that is almost a certainty. Their deficit is far too high, a nice IPO and stock/shares at some crazy multiple will make them far more money short term than any oil price south of $150 a barrel. My god you're a fucking idiot.