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View Full Version : As Venezuela Spirals, U.S. Oil Confronts a $10 Billion Threat


HiTempguy1
08-03-2017, 10:33 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-03/as-venezuela-spirals-u-s-oil-confronts-a-10-billion-threat

What would be the likelihood on imports from the oilsands going to refineries like these? CP rail profits would be fat from shipping to the coast I'd think.

I don't know the logistics of shipping bitumen/syn-crude to these refineries, but if Venezuela goes off the rails, it seems like we could have a substantial buyer for our oil (more-so than we already do). Maybe pricing for WCS would become closer to WTI?

Thoughts?
ExtraSlow
08-03-2017, 11:08 AM
Oilsands oil already flows to that gulf coast refinery complex. In fact, that's the main place it DOES go already. Unfortunately, the amount can't be easily increased without more pipelines like KXL. Oil by rail is a side-show.
Xtrema
08-03-2017, 03:44 PM
I think they will switch to Dakotas before they come knock on our doors.

I assume they still get their stuff from Venezuela is because just like our stuff, a fair amount of discount off WTI.
g-m
08-03-2017, 03:45 PM
The WCS discount is already pretty much gone thanks to refinery retooling. Heavy oil is desirable to refineries with cokers.
HiTempguy1
08-03-2017, 03:48 PM
My thread title was way better than the mods change, I'm pretty sure I know who changed it :thumbsup:
ExtraSlow
08-03-2017, 06:26 PM
Dakota oil is no substitute for Venezuelan or Alberta heavy crude. The refineries can't easily switch from one grade to another.
Very different carbon chains, or so my chemist friends say...
J-D
08-04-2017, 10:39 AM
Dakota oil is no substitute for Venezuelan or Alberta heavy crude. The refineries can't easily switch from one grade to another.
Very different carbon chains, or so my chemist friends say...

It's been shifting over the years as well. I'm sure plenty of other people on here know the industry way better than I do, but I believe P66 and Valero both have refineries in Louisiana that take in close to 100% VZ Crude. Lots of the TX Gulf Coast refineries have been reducing the % of VZ Crude refined, including Citgo(PDVSA/Rosneft) over the years.
HiTempguy1
08-04-2017, 11:39 AM
Dakota oil is no substitute for Venezuelan or Alberta heavy crude. The refineries can't easily switch from one grade to another.
Very different carbon chains, or so my chemist friends say...

Having a tough time finding when KXL will be complete. Have they even started laying pipe after the approval of the Trump gov?

Venezuela hasn't even hit rock bottom yet, I think this is only the beginning. WCS is still $10usd/barrel off of WTI, I would assume with KXL that might alleviate even more of the discount?

At 2.5mil/day, a $1 increase is $75mil per month, $900mil per year to Albertas bottom line.
Darkane
08-04-2017, 12:29 PM
Having a tough time finding when KXL will be complete. Have they even started laying pipe after the approval of the Trump gov?

Venezuela hasn't even hit rock bottom yet, I think this is only the beginning. WCS is still $10usd/barrel off of WTI, I would assume with KXL that might alleviate even more of the discount?

At 2.5mil/day, a $1 increase is $75mil per month, $900mil per year to Albertas bottom line.

AKA one trillion Canadian dollars.