Here’s How Canada’s Oil Sands Could Collapse by 2030

[ipeefreely]

Alberta's bitumen may be obsolete much sooner than you think. (https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/paabxk/heres-how-canadas-oil-sands-could-collapse-by-2030)


According to the oil industry our society will keep burning oil for a long time. The low oil prices that have wreaked havoc in Alberta and other oil-producing jurisdictions for the past several years are just a temporary slump. Prices will soon rise. Global demand will grow. Canada's oil sands will expand by 53 percent. Any talk of the industry soon collapsing is "greatly exaggerated," argues the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

But more and more evidence suggests sunny predictions such as these are dead wrong. The global oil industry could be on the brink of a rapid and irreversible decline. If and when it begins, Canada's oil sands would be one of the first major casualties.



Good thing we have lots of natural gas to sell for all those power plants they'll need (and will have to build) to power all those electric vehicles! :D

Alberta also has a bunch of rare earth metals that they'll need for those fancy batteries too! :thumbsup:


Predicts on how quickly we'll see the giant change?

[g-m]

lol vice.

[msommers]

I believe that our oil demand will drop but never go away completely. It will get to a point of not making financial sense though

Instead we should invest in geothermal energy, sell electricity. Look further into diamonds in Alberta.

[dirtsniffer]

Hahaha fuck vice . How about here is 1000 ways where the oil sands doesn't collapse.

[A790]

It's funny watching people respond to these articles wit the typical "fuck this" attitude. It's also funny that we live in a world where such an outcome is a possibility.

3 years now the patch has been struggling with oil at over $40 a barrel. So, what happens if it does drop?

[Tik-Tok]

It's funny watching people respond to these articles wit the typical "fuck this" attitude. It's also funny that we live in a world where such an outcome is a possibility.


My bet is there will be a point in time where someone in the middle east does something really stupid in retaliation to the west doing something equally dumb, and we won't have access to their oil anymore. Whether it be because it's an oil embargo, blockade, or sanctions.

[dirtsniffer]

It's funny watching people respond to these articles wit the typical "fuck this" attitude. It's also funny that we live in a world where such an outcome is a possibility.

3 years now the patch has been struggling with oil at over $40 a barrel. So, what happens if it does drop?

I was referring to the journalistic quality of the article. Vice quotes two prominent economists but doesn't name either. I wonder why.

[suntan]

A long period of $50 oil will be very good for Alberta. Wages will readjust eventually.

[ExtraSlow]

My opinion is that the rapid expansion of oil sands that we saw in the recent past and that is just finishing now and the next few years will never be required again.

Total global oil demand is still increasing, but that can't last too much longer. Once demand growth stops and turns to demand contraction, it's very hard to predict where price will go. Supply growth is only possible with massive capital expenditures, so as the capital flows reduce, will supply drop faster than demand or the opposite??

Much has been written on the topic, but nothing I find credible and evidence based.

Me, I'm betting on strong prices for another two decades, but what do I know?

[Xtrema]

Most oilsand development has been written down. It's all about operations going forward. As long as we stay at 80c dollar and oil stay at $50, we will keep going with 0 growth.

The problem is access to pacific shore to get products out, fuck BC NDP. If anybody need more oil, it's China, even with green energy offset.

They have no problem with conflict minerals in batteries but oil is the evil.

[J-hop]

I was referring to the journalistic quality of the article. Vice quotes two prominent economists but doesn't name either. I wonder why.

This, hey I found two economists in North America that agree with me, let's write an article.

[Gestalt]

Oil industry will uust create another war.

We've seen it many times.

[tonytiger55]

World population hit 7 billion in 2011. It is expected to hit 9 billion by 2040.

So with two billion extra people ...where is the energy, plastics, fuel, electricity, machinery going to come from to produce more food, infrastructure, smart products with complex plastics, and ipad's..?

Energy has become diverse. Its interesting when I was in the Uk there is always a big discussion about oil and energy and access to resources. There was talk about north sea oil, but its not heavy enough.
Yet in Canada we have heavy oil and yet we write it off. Alberta needs access to markets.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Gestalt]

We have the meens we just lack will.

Cold turkey is often best.

[dirtsniffer]

You really meen that? Turn off the gas to your house.

[RealJimmyJames]

Oil industry will uust create another war.

We've seen it many times.I wish they would hurry the hell up with this big war.

[HiTempguy1]

but it won't be as attractive as it used to be.

Coal and wood are still used even if considered legacy products (as a fuel and as a building material).

Attractive is all relative. The mines will run until the companies go bankrupt, its how it always has and always will be.

KEARL has the capacity to expand not once, but two more times over the completed KID and KEP projects. So double the output of the current combined plant capacity. The amount of oil in that mine must be staggering if it was supposed to run for 50+ years at that capacity. Eventually the jobs will become like coal or logging, good enough pay for the work, but it won't be like in its hayday. It's always the same with resource industries.

Syncrude was originally designed with a 50 year lifespan was my understanding. It's now been stretched to 70+ and again, will be ran into the ground by the time any really negative changes occur in O&G. Albian feeds Scottford, so they don't give a flying shit about price of a barrel of oil.

So yea, I think it'll be like logging in BC. Just another industry to the bitter end, instead of a never ending behemoth like people once imagined. The only constant is change, it was bound to end eventually :dunno:

[J-hop]

We have the meens we just lack will.

Cold turkey is often best.

This is why anti oil groups never get any true traction (not because some big oil conspiracy is quashing them). The idea that we can stop all oil use tomorrow is naive at best. Will be interesting to see you type out a response on your hemp laptop tomorrow.

It is almost hilarious how the cold turkey people don't get it. You tell them that tomorrow they should stop using anything that requires or was made with petroleum products. Like their car, computer, cell phone, tooth brush, furnace, power, etc. Their response is always "that is an absurd thing to suggest". Then you stare at them waiting for it to click, but it never does.

The demand will only significantly decrease if new technologies outpace population growth which they haven't. According to people on here the idea that ~10 billion is the breaking point for world population is a myth. I think someone in this thread even said the earth could sustain 30+ billion "no problem". So no the demand won't drop significantly for a long time.

[Gestalt]

This is why anti oil groups never get any true traction (not because some big oil conspiracy is quashing them). The idea that we can stop all oil use tomorrow is naive at best. Will be interesting to see you type out a response on your hemp laptop tomorrow.

It is almost hilarious how the cold turkey people don't get it. You tell them that tomorrow they should stop using anything that requires or was made with petroleum products. Like their car, computer, cell phone, tooth brush, furnace, power, etc. Their response is always "that is an absurd thing to suggest". Then you stare at them waiting for it to click, but it never does.

The demand will only significantly decrease if new technologies outpace population growth which they haven't. According to people on here the idea that ~10 billion is the breaking point for world population is a myth. I think someone in this thread even said the earth could sustain 30+ billion "no problem". So no the demand won't drop significantly for a long time.

Dont build straw hiuses or strawmen.

It doesnt have to be all or nothing. And it wont work as individuals giving up. It had to be policy and society wide.

First declaration should be something like alll new energy must be alternstove. No more new dirty energy under any circumstance (including the inevetable war they will start) We can do that easily. You fear ridiculous outcome lack of vision people need not be consulted.

The rest will fall in place as prioritees shift.

[R-Audi]

Bit more credibility than Vice... if you have time to sit down and watch it all.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&app=desktop

If 50-75% of this guys predictions come true Calgary could be in for a rough ride.

[Kloubek]

It is likely that at one point the demand for oil will indeed decrease, but that demand isn't going to be going away any time soon - and when it does, it isn't like there won't continue to be a demand from the many other industries which rely on it. The unfortunate part is that when the demand does drop, we will be the first one to fall since our extraction techniques cost far more than operations overseas or even in the US.

Furthermore, Calgary itself needs to evolve. Any large city reliant on a single industry for the majority of their operations is going to fail at some point. The issue is that when oil is making money, it supplies far too much of it to make the powers that be wish to diversify. That ends up with a sudden crash and ultimately causes a city to crumble. (ie: Detroit). Without serious diversification, it will happen - it's just a matter of time.

[J-hop]

Dont build straw hiuses or strawmen.

It doesnt have to be all or nothing. And it wont work as individuals giving up. It had to be policy and society wide.

First declaration should be something like alll new energy must be alternstove. No more new dirty energy under any circumstance (including the inevetable war they will start) We can do that easily. You fear ridiculous outcome lack of vision people need not be consulted.

The rest will fall in place as prioritees shift.

You were the one that suggested the all or nothing idea, what does "cold turkey" mean to you :dunno:


We have the meens we just lack will.

Cold turkey is often best.

[HiTempguy1]

Without serious diversification

Diversification is a lie peddled by governments and goes directly against the concept of free markets/capitalism. :dunno:

[Gestalt]

Diversification is a lie peddled by governments and goes directly against the concept of free markets/capitalism. :dunno:

It goes against anarchy. But nit against free markets ooerated within regulation. An oil chnage place could be more successful in a anarchist economy. We could dump our dirty oil and filters in the alley or sewers. But that hurts everyone long term, so we operate within guiding principlas. We saw in the past that anarchist business models are a disaster, and that seems to be the tyoe of free market you are insanely promoting

[dj_patm]

Diversification is a lie peddled by governments and goes directly against the concept of free markets/capitalism. :dunno:

That's all well and good, but this city will die without it so....

[suntan]

Guys give Gestalt a break, he's still clearly recovering from the multiple strokes he's had over the years.

[J-hop]

That's all well and good, but this city will die without it so....

Yea I agree with this. The majors seem to be pulling out of Alberta while midsize companies seem to be picking up due to their ability to deliver at lower costs and nimbleness. i think with volatile and low oil prices continuing you are going to see a worsening effect the longer it lasts in that the only companies that can flourish are those able to ramp up and down quickly to follow market trends. While that is good for the company and it's shareholders it's not great for the workforce and the local economies

Diversification in some form is probably going to be a necessity

[A790]

That's all well and good, but this city will die without it so....
What- you don't think Calgary will survive as a one-trick pony?

[suntan]

Calgary is diversifying economically. For fuck's sake people this isn't the first oil downturn, and you're not the first dingbats to think "fuck, we should diversify!".

As a percentage of GDP, the O&G industry has been shrinking steadily over the years.

[HiTempguy1]

That's all well and good, but this city will die without it so....

And? That happens, sometimes in spectacular fashion. It is the way the world works, when something has no more value to society, it gets left behind.

Does it suck? Uh, ya? But that's what happens. Forced government diversification has basically never worked, EVER, better than free market forces could have produced.

What is valuable about Calgary? Honest question, same goes for Edmonton. They are places to live? Sure, Detroit was to (and arguably, is a better location even to this day). Calgary has the mountains. That's about all it has going for it. Edmonton has nothing.

I love Alberta through and through, and I'll probably be here forever. But we shouldn't kid ourselves, our province isn't Saskatchewan simply because of our resources and how we developed them. We're not going to become Silicon Valley 2.0, or Hollywood North, or a chemical manufacturing behemoth, or a financial powerhouse, etc etc. There just is no reason for it, and that is largely due to geography.


Calgary is diversifying economically. For fuck's sake people this isn't the first oil downturn, and you're not the first dingbats to think "fuck, we should diversify!".

As a percentage of GDP, the O&G industry has been shrinking steadily over the years.

Sure...

http://i.imgur.com/oTH4Bjr.jpg

If O&G starts to spiral, there certainly will be a drastic change here, I would imagine it would be very similiar to Detroit. Except that we'd have a conservative gov in place, so they may actually cut the shit out of stuff so we make it out the other side in an ok position.

[Tik-Tok]

Calgary is diversifying economically. For fuck's sake people this isn't the first oil downturn, and you're not the first dingbats to think "fuck, we should diversify!".

As a percentage of GDP, the O&G industry has been shrinking steadily over the years.

I'm amazed more people haven't realized this. If we were so dependent on O&G as some believe, the downturn would have been extremely more devastating than it was. It hurt us, but it was no 80's bust (when we really were dependent on O&G)

[suntan]

If O&G starts to spiral, there certainly will be a drastic change here, I would imagine it would be very similiar to Detroit. Except that we'd have a conservative gov in place, so they may actually cut the shit out of stuff so we make it out the other side in an ok position.

Dumbass, that O&G part was 40% in the 90s!

[R-Audi]

Look at the top 3 sectors in that pie chart... O&G, Construction and Real Estate/Leasing. All three are closely related and will cause major issues for the rest. Downtown is currently sitting with a 30% vacancy rate which is ridiculous and its only getting worse. (Buildings will be finished over the next 12-18 months, wont be any new DT projects in the near future) There are very few new large construction projects getting started and the banks are tightening requirements. Less O&G, less wages, less jobs, less construction, less real estate. (residential and commercial)Its not pretty and short of a word event I cant see it turning around anytime soon for the O&G prices... plus if they go down much further you wil see more wells shut in, and the lower cost wells will be the only ones that survive.

[suntan]

RE is a very large part of BC and Ontario's GDP as well.

[CLiVE]

Many articles of this type fail to recognize different types of oil and the demand for light grades vs. heavy grades. They also rarely look past the barrel at the demand for oil products and derivatives.
Demand will still be there, and heavy grades will still be required unless you see significant re-configuring of US Gulf Coast refineries.

[HiTempguy1]

Dumbass, that O&G part was 40% in the 90s!

Yea, and how fast was the rate of change?

Maybe look at your dumbass in the mirror :rofl: You of all people should be arguing against gov "diversification".

On top of that, I'd love to see the 40% and what industries/services were included when calculating that number.

And finally, read what Audi posted. So many sectors (services, finance, real estate) are linked to O&G being here.

Ontario and BC are fucked if their RE prices drop. People are starting to shit bricks in Onterrible with the drop in Toronto.

[Gestalt]

Most places in the world dont rely on their oil industry. Some are doing ok without it. having oil was like winning the lottery, except we spent it faster than we could pump it. its a lsoers bet honestly. if you are going to engage in that tar sands dirty business, it should be a giant enormous net benefit, not a libaility in well clean up, tax payes on hook for recalamation, environemntal mess, diryty air for our future kids and so on, stifling and supressing technology and research.

At the end of the day, i think the best measure of a society is happyness, and if that's the case, in Canada, Alberta is beat by everyone, except the east coast newfies. BC and Quebec by far have the happiest people. Albertans are just self entitled misrebale pricks.

[J-hop]

Most places in the world dont rely on their oil industry. Some are doing ok without it. having oil was like winning the lottery, except we spent it faster than we could pump it. its a lsoers bet honestly. if you are going to engage in that tar sands dirty business, it should be a giant enormous net benefit, not a libaility in well clean up, tax payes on hook for recalamation, environemntal mess, diryty air for our future kids and so on, stifling and supressing technology and research.

At the end of the day, i think the best measure of a society is happyness, and if that's the case, in Canada, Alberta is beat by everyone, except the east coast newfies. BC and Quebec by far have the happiest people. Albertans are just self entitled misrebale pricks.

A better way to look at it would be what areas don't rely primarily on natural resources. Many may not rely on O&G or mining directly but I think it's pretty naive to think the primary source of income for almost all countries in the world starts with natural resource extraction.

BTW have you been to the tar sands and seen where the oil sits at surface contaminating all water sources and soil around it? The idea that if left alone the tar sands would be "green" is really naive

[Sugarphreak]

...

[dj_patm]

And? That happens, sometimes in spectacular fashion. It is the way the world works, when something has no more value to society, it gets left behind.

Does it suck? Uh, ya? But that's what happens. Forced government diversification has basically never worked, EVER, better than free market forces could have produced.

What is valuable about Calgary? Honest question, same goes for Edmonton. They are places to live? Sure, Detroit was to (and arguably, is a better location even to this day). Calgary has the mountains. That's about all it has going for it. Edmonton has nothing.

I love Alberta through and through, and I'll probably be here forever. But we shouldn't kid ourselves, our province isn't Saskatchewan simply because of our resources and how we developed them. We're not going to become Silicon Valley 2.0, or Hollywood North, or a chemical manufacturing behemoth, or a financial powerhouse, etc etc. There just is no reason for it, and that is largely due to geography.

If O&G starts to spiral, there certainly will be a drastic change here, I would imagine it would be very similiar to Detroit. Except that we'd have a conservative gov in place, so they may actually cut the shit out of stuff so we make it out the other side in an ok position.

I don't get your point.

So we should just let it happen? Just throw our hands up in the air and say "ahh fuck it! we had a good run"?

Also we don't have to be "Hollywood North", "Silicon Valley 2.0" or anything like that. All we need is to grow other sectors to offset the decline of the O&G industry as much as we can. Obviously it's unlikely that we steal entire industries away from other cities. But if we can grow all of our non-O&G sectors by a few percentage points, the economy might remain stable.

I also don't get why people seem to be relishing in the fact that Ontario and BC are in a RE bubble. This whole country is fucked if any of things we're talking about happens. We should be hoping for prosperity across the board, not hating on other provinces and hoping they fail with us. What a stupid backwards ass hick attitude. Typical Alberta right there.

[Kloubek]

Diversification is useless without an economic anchor of some kind to generate new wealth


Well of course. Nobody - public or private - is going to say "Hey, let's close down this thriving oil company and open up something else. No, we don't know what that something else is or how much money it will make, but we'll just go ahead and get the ball rolling".

The government wasn't lying (about it being a good idea); it is a necessary evil. A city/province/country cannot sustain itself forever on one primary industry. It might work out for a while - hell, it might be damnright lucrative - but it will always end eventually. Evolution is required for sustained growth and population health.

And as far as that pie chart goes - whether O&G does well has an effect on almost every slice if that pie - even if it appears unrelated. Without enough industrial or commercial activity, a city will lose population. Tax income goes down, and businesses suffer. Eventually, the city dies. So no - don't give up on oil. I believe it will still come back to a degree which again makes Calgarians a lot of money in the future (though I question how long - if ever - it will take to get back to levels prior to the downturn). But at the same time, I think we need to find a way to introduce or expand other industries so that when oil does finally become permanently unprofitable that the city can continue to survive. But like I said in a previous post, when an industry is lucrative it's difficult for anyone to worry about the future and instead just focus on what is making them money NOW. It is the same trap so many other cities have fallen into and didn't try to get out of until it was too late.

[HiTempguy1]

I don't get your point.


You don't get a lot of things re: Ontario hate. How you could possibly read into that as "hating" vs just making a statement of fact to bolster my claim leaves me a bit incredulous. I think this will be my last post on Beyond for the weekend, ya'll goin full retard today it seems.

[suntan]

Yea, and how fast was the rate of change?

Maybe look at your dumbass in the mirror :rofl: You of all people should be arguing against gov "diversification".

On top of that, I'd love to see the 40% and what industries/services were included when calculating that number.

And finally, read what Audi posted. So many sectors (services, finance, real estate) are linked to O&G being here.

Ontario and BC are fucked if their RE prices drop. People are starting to shit bricks in Onterrible with the drop in Toronto.
Are you stupid? Of course it takes years to diversify. That's the whole fucking point. It's been happening, and it takes time, because holy fuck making billions of dollars in GDP IS HARD.

[A790]

Are you stupid?.
HiTemp isn't stupid, just polarizing.

[Xtrema]

Bit more credibility than Vice... if you have time to sit down and watch it all.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&app=desktop

If 50-75% of this guys predictions come true Calgary could be in for a rough ride.

Wow. I only see about 80% of what this guy predicted. The fact that used cars will worth nothing because of TaaS by 2025 is a surprising prediction.

[suntan]

HiTemp isn't stupid, just polarizing.

He's polarizing because he's stupid.

[J-hop]

He's polarizing because he's stupid.

Too easy to attack someone instead of trying to persuade them to see things from your viewpoint. If someone is simple minded it should be even easier to convince them you're right. The simple fact you can't persuade him shows he's more intelligent than you give him credit for.

[Gestalt]

Tar sands disaster continues it seems, now imapcting our nafta talks.
http://www.canada24news.com/canada/nafta-negotiations-canada-told-to-explain-its-oilsands-tailings-leaks/19290-news

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ZenOps]

Mr. Fusion?

[Xtrema]

Mr. Fusion?

4c/kwh solar is probably best for human future, can't weaponize that shit.

[phreezee]

Bit more credibility than Vice... if you have time to sit down and watch it all.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&app=desktop

If 50-75% of this guys predictions come true Calgary could be in for a rough ride.

This guy fails to take human nature and activity into account. People don't use cars for A to B solely. People easily pay 10x for things if they value i.e. convenience, entertainment. Otherwise everyone would take transit.

Solar is joke. I did science project on it in elementary there have been next to no advancement due to the Shockley–Queisser limit.

[A790]

This guy fails to take human nature and activity into account. People don't use cars for A to B solely. People easily pay 10x for things if they value i.e. convenience, entertainment. Otherwise everyone would take transit.

Solar is joke. I did science project on it in elementary there have been next to no advancement due to the Shockley–Queisser limit.
The power with solar isn't generation, it's storage.

[Xtrema]

Solar is joke. I did science project on it in elementary there have been next to no advancement due to the Shockley–Queisser limit.

Even if the limit is reached, each solar + storage can deal with peak demand and peak demand will increase if we switch to EV.

[pfis300]

I work in the central control room for an oil sands producer at a truck & shovel mine. 200,000 future barrels per day through the mouse pad, and i assure you this industry is going nowhere. The biggest energy companies do not invest 18+billion in a single facility because their top advisers and strategists think the market for oil is dwindling. We see it day in and day out at work - they commit to the long term in every aspect of these facilities.

A multi billion dollar corporation's strategic planning of its capital > a vice reporter's outlook on an industry his hippie girlfriend hates

[phreezee]

Storage technology is indeed what we need to break through and create true disruption, but we are no where near that break through by 2020 and 100% generation by 2025. Tony Seba is dreaming at best.

[Gestalt]

You guys dont give human enginuity the respect it deserves.

If governments tomorrow said no more oil development or growth. Cap it as is. We would shine. As a species. No problem whatsoever. Leaving yourself a crutch only slows your growth.

[pfis300]

You guys dont give human enginuity the respect it deserves.

If governments tomorrow said no more oil development or growth. Cap it as is. We would shine. As a species. No problem whatsoever. Leaving yourself a crutch only slows your growth.

I would look forward to the look on your face after you get conscripted into the army to fight a war over oil at that point.

[Gestalt]

I would look forward to the look on your face after you get conscripted into the army to fight a war over oil at that point.

More oil wars are inevetable. Those crooks wont go without a fight.

I play crazy really well. I wont have a problem avoidng servitude.

[J-hop]

You guys dont give human enginuity the respect it deserves.

If governments tomorrow said no more oil development or growth. Cap it as is. We would shine. As a species. No problem whatsoever. Leaving yourself a crutch only slows your growth.

Economic downturns haven't accelerated innovation as you are trying to suggest. Reality check if the governement said tomorrow no more oil development or growth every single multinational would pull out of Canada, local companies would either close their doors or move south of the border, mass poverty would sweep the nation. People would turn from trying to improve their life to trying to meet basic needs. Innovation doesn't happen when your population can't feed itself.

Oil allows innovation to flourish there is no question. Look at how far it's taken the human race in just the last 100 years.

People also forgot/purposely ignore the amount of research that is directly funded by oil companies that is applicable beyond the extraction of hydrocarbons.

[Gestalt]

Economic downturns haven't accelerated innovation as you are trying to suggest. Reality check if the governement said tomorrow no more oil development or growth every single multinational would pull out of Canada, local companies would either close their doors or move south of the border, mass poverty would sweep the nation. People would turn from trying to improve their life to trying to meet basic needs. Innovation doesn't happen when your population can't feed itself.

Oil allows innovation to flourish there is no question. Look at how far it's taken the human race in just the last 100 years.

People also forgot/purposely ignore the amount of research that is directly funded by oil companies that is applicable beyond the extraction of hydrocarbons.

I would appresiate if you would not basterdize my argument to build a straw house from it.

If you need it paraphrazed, a more accurate one is that we do our best when we have no easy way foreward.

Same for humans or animals. If you put a rat in the most complex maze, he will not figur it out if you put the food beside him. if you put the food at the end of the maze, he will.

And since I am lsitening to illegaly downlaoded Sun Tzu mp3's. If you cross the river into enemy territory, your men are tired, outnumbered, making excuses, you burn the ships so there is no easy way out. The only choice is foreward, and with their abcks to a wall, they won.

Please dont make up childish excuse becasue you chosen to take the easiest way out in the most corrupt industry we have.

- - - Updated - - -

And by research I think you mean like knwoing about global warming since the 60's and hiding it and lying about it.

[J-hop]

I'm not sure how I bastardized your arguement. Please restate. I'm not sure how I built a straw house out of your argument unless it was one already. You can't always call fowl when your arguements are broken down.

I'm not saying the oil industry is perfect however oil and gas is the catalyst for the leaps and bounds the human race has made especially in the last century. That is absolutely undeniable.

You come across as one of those greenies that condemns the wastefulness of endeavours like space travel yet don't acknowledge the major breakthroughs in solar technology were directly caused by innovation for space exploration.

You seem to focus on all the negatives with your arguments and ignore the fact that many of the positives you take for granted in your life are brought about by things you try to condemn.

If you want to play the cherry pick game with research, who are some of the major sponsors of the university of Calgary solar car team? Solar companies?

[Gestalt]

I'm not sure how I bastardized your arguement.



Economic downturns haven't accelerated innovation as you are trying to suggest.

I said absolutely nothnng of that.

and everything that followed was childish argument, assumed true for its own sake, and make up crapola.

You know, I'm into this solar stuff a little. I ahve pictures of houses in the late 1800s with solar water heaters. oil industry cheated us. it didnt help us anywhere but to wars.

- - - Updated - - -



If you want to play the cherry pick game with research, who are some of the major sponsors of the university of Calgary solar car team? Solar companies?

Cigarette companies once sponsored races. Am I msitaken, or are current engines worht a million each wihtout those companies tax cheating?

[J-hop]

I said absolutely nothnng of that.

and everything that followed was childish argument, assumed true for its own sake, and make up crapola.

You know, I'm into this solar stuff a little. I ahve pictures of houses in the late 1800s with solar water heaters. oil industry cheated us. it didnt help us anywhere but to wars.

So what did the oil price plummet a couple years ago cause? A major economic downturn. By suggesting halting oil development would cause our species to flourish is suggesting causing an economic downturn will result in increased innovation.

Solar water heaters have nothing do with creating photovoltaic energy....

[Gestalt]

So what did the oil price plummet a couple years ago cause?
opportunity.


By suggesting halting oil development would cause our species to flourish is suggesting causing an economic downturn will result in increased innovation.
not even close. Only lack of imagination alberta was hit, and only a little. well that and third word dictatorships.


Solar water heaters have nothing do with creating photovoltaic energy.... are you sure? what can you do with steam? What dirty crap do you use to heat your water?

Are you drunk? You are making less sense than normal.

[J-hop]

opportunity.


not even close. Only lack of imagination alberta was hit, and only a little. well that and third word dictatorships.

are you sure? what can you do with steam? What dirty crap do you use to heat your water?

Are you drunk? You are making less sense than normal.

Show me the innovation outside of "unimaginative" Alberta that arose from this oil price crash. Alberta was only hit a little? You call hitting unemployment levels around 75% of the major 1980s crash just a little?

Steam generation is not photovoltaic. I thought you were big into solar? Why are you calling ME the incoherent one?

[Gestalt]

Show me the innovation outside of "unimaginative" Alberta that arose from this oil price crash. Alberta was only hit a little? You call hitting unemployment levels around 75% of the major 1980s crash just a little?

Steam generation is not photovoltaic. I thought you were big into solar? Why are you calling ME the incoherent one?

becasue dummy, you are still on the crash thing. Theyrw way out was approving pipelines, record production, and cutting costs. ie. the easy way out.

holy fuck :facepalm:

[J-hop]

becasue dummy, you are still on the crash thing. Theyrw way out was approving pipelines, record production, and cutting costs. ie. the easy way out.

holy fuck :facepalm:


As I asked, show me the innovation outside of Alberta as a direct result of the crash. Let's ignore Alberta for now. Demonstrate how the crash created oppotunity instead of hardship

Tell me how you are going to get the batteries for your solar energy storage in an even remotely environmentally friendly way. Show me how you are going to reduce your personal petroleum usage? Show me how you are going to phase out petroleum products from your life. Give concrete examples

I'm challenging you on tough questions, you can't just call me a dummy I'm not going to bite. I'm interested in your ideas not your person.

[Buster]

low oil prices reduce innovation in other energy areas. The reasons for this should be obvious.

[JRSC00LUDE]

low oil prices reduce innovation in other energy areas. The reasons for this should be obvious.

Nothing is obvious to Gestalt that doesn't fit his pigeonholed Kool-Aid drunk narrative. The only obvious thing I've gleaned from his posts of late is he googled "straw man fallacy" and thinks he's got a solid way out of everything he doesn't understand as a result.

[Gestalt]

Nothing is obvious to Gestalt that doesn't fit his pigeonholed Kool-Aid drunk narrative. The only obvious thing I've gleaned from his posts of late is he googled "straw man fallacy" and thinks he's got a solid way out of everything he doesn't understand as a result.

Why is it obvious? It's an outrite lie. Oil industry has actively supressed research in other areas, supressed climate science, supressed viable alternative.

but started wars.

[Buster]

high oil prices create a market incentive to generate energy in other, cheaper ways. It reduces the payback time for capital investment and research investment in other areas.

Ergo, low oil prices do the opposite.

Obvious.

[spikerS]

Cigarette companies once sponsored races. Am I msitaken, or are current engines worht a million each wihtout those companies tax cheating?

In all fairness, when the cigarette companies sponsoring teams in the various race car series, we saw more teams, more cars, and way faster innovation from that sponsorship money.

IMO, after they were legislated out, ingenuity and progress slowed WAY down.

[Gestalt]

high oil prices create a market incentive to generate energy in other, cheaper ways. It reduces the payback time for capital investment and research investment in other areas.

Ergo, low oil prices do the opposite.

Obvious.

Right. So having an easy way out hinders progress. as ive said all along.

Cap oil, say enough is enough, and presto.

[Buster]

Right. So having an easy way out hinders progress. as ive said all along.

Cap oil, say enough is enough, and presto.

Yes, artificially raising the price of oil would have the same impact as letting the market do it, in terms of reducing the payback on alternative technologies.

The problem is that the implementation of the policy is ALSO subject to the market. In other words, there is a big distinction between, the market making people less wealthy, and governments arbitrarily making people less wealthy. Your problem on the "will" side is not with the policy makers, but rather the public - and controlling markets. Price controls like you suggest never function in the way they intend - markets always find a way.

[Gestalt]

Yes, artificially raising the price of oil would have the same impact as letting the market do it, in terms of reducing the payback on alternative technologies.

The problem is that the implementation of the policy is ALSO subject to the market. In other words, there is a big distinction between, the market making people less wealthy, and governments arbitrarily making people less wealthy. Your problem on the "will" side is not with the policy makers, but rather the public - and controlling markets. Price controls like you suggest never function in the way they intend - markets always find a way.

Which is different from artificially manipulating prices with a cartel, monopolies, collusion, wars? :facepalm:

I'm suggesting a prodcution cap. no new development.

[J-hop]

Which is different from artificially manipulating prices with a cartel, monopolies, collusion, wars? :facepalm:

I'm suggesting a prodcution cap. no new development.


So what happens to the average person that can't afford to buy one of your electric cars and now can't afford gasoline?

[Gestalt]

So what happens to the average person that can't afford to buy one of your electric cars and now can't afford gasoline?

You are still just making up stuff.

Who says they cant afford it? Who says prices will go up? Old world demand has been very flat for 30 years. Last i checked we are self sufficient if we needed to be.

[never]

You are still just making up stuff.

Who says they cant afford it? Who says prices will go up? Old world demand has been very flat for 30 years. Last i checked we are self sufficient if we needed to be.

Are you not familiar with basic economics?

[dirtsniffer]

https://labs.timogrossenbacher.ch/worldoil/

Oil demand has not been flat for the last 30 years, it's actually increased by roughly 50%

#strawman

[Buster]

Which is different from artificially manipulating prices with a cartel, monopolies, collusion, wars? :facepalm:

I'm suggesting a prodcution cap. no new development.

A price control is a price control is a price control. Achieved in different ways...but same outcome.

[Gestalt]

https://labs.timogrossenbacher.ch/worldoil/

Oil demand has not been flat for the last 30 years, it's actually increased by roughly 50%

#strawmanag
Read what i said aain, and concede to my point as I made it, or start a new arguemnt. But try and not mix them up please.

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A price control is a price control is a price control. Achieved in different ways...but same outcome.

And i never suggested price contrils, tbough a policy shift that we maximise gains from remaonong oil we allow the extractio. Of. Instead of funneling the money to private pockets.

[J-hop]

You are still just making up stuff.

Who says they cant afford it? Who says prices will go up? Old world demand has been very flat for 30 years. Last i checked we are self sufficient if we needed to be.

If you cut development, supply stays flat (then declines as your worldwide reservoirs start depleting), oil companies offset lack of additional reserves by increasing hydrocarbon prices, this ends up affecting the pump prices no doubt. Gas becomes $4/litre (for example) now a significant portion of the population can't afford to drive. Who generally lives further out in Calgary? Us poor people that can't afford the housing prices, and now you take away our ability to afford gas to get to work. People spend more money on gas and less on other items effectively cratering other industries.

Tell me what about that is poor logic?

[ickyflex]

http://precision-market-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/supply-and-demand-01-resized-600.png

In case you haven't seen this yet Gestalt

[Buster]

And i never suggested price contrils, tbough a policy shift that we maximise gains from remaonong oil we allow the extractio. Of. Instead of funneling the money to private pockets.

Wut? Price controls (ie raising prices) is the goal of your "policy". You even said so yourself a page ago.

[Gestalt]

Wut? Price controls (ie raising prices) is the goal of your "policy". You even said so yourself a page ago.

I certainly didnt. I talked about rats and sun tzu.

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http://precision-market-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/supply-and-demand-01-resized-600.png

In case you haven't seen this yet Gestalt

I dont get it. As price goes up, demand goes up?

[JRSC00LUDE]

I certainly didnt. I talked about rats and sun tzu.

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I dont get it. As price goes up, demand goes up?

This is called a graph. It illustrates the relationship between supply and demand and its (availability/quantity) relative effect on cost (pricing) and vice versa. I could draw you a picture but......

[Gestalt]

This is called a graph. It illustrates the relationship between supply and demand and its (availability) relative effect on cost (pricing). I could draw you a picture but......

I'm reading about it, its slow at work today. Its an interesting theery but so far i think it only applies the wants in life, not needs.

Its not like when gas goes up, the drive to my work gets shorter, or if i need to eat, ill eat less if its expensive.

[dirtsniffer]

And the price of renting a place to live stays the same if you don't move right?

[ickyflex]

I'm reading about it, its slow at work today. Its an interesting theery but so far i think it only applies the wants in life, not needs.

Its not like when gas goes up, the drive to my work gets shorter, or if i need to eat, ill eat less if its expensive.

https://cdn.someecards.com/someecards/usercards/1337967820734_5971688.png

[Gestalt]

And the price of renting a place to live stays the same if you don't move right?

Thats really not what i said. You got it backwards actully. I said whether price gies up or down, i need a place to live. Well. Except i used commuting. Lets take a survey. How many people moved when gas went from 82 cents recently to 1.04?

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https://cdn.someecards.com/someecards/usercards/1337967820734_5971688.png

Oh i dont know. Maybe i misunderstood ykur graph, but in my head i get it.

Im watching these videos now, and i gotta say, most you guys have it wrong as well especially buster and jhop.

https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/microeconomics/supply-demand-equilibrium

[Buster]

I certainly didnt. I talked about rats and sun tzu.



https://forums.beyond.ca/threads/404666-Here%E2%80%99s-How-Canada%E2%80%99s-Oil-Sands-Could-Collapse-by-2030?p=4676548#post4676548


At this point, I honestly think Gestalt is an admin troll account. I think I'm actually worried at this point that dumb is contagious.

[Gestalt]

https://forums.beyond.ca/threads/404666-Here%E2%80%99s-How-Canada%E2%80%99s-Oil-Sands-Could-Collapse-by-2030?p=4676548#post4676548


At this point, I honestly think Gestalt is an admin troll account. I think I'm actually worried at this point that dumb is contagious.

See. That's notbwhat I said. I think tou should join me in watching these videos. Maybe then you want extrapalate and read between the lines for what wasnt said.

[never]

At this point, I honestly think Gestalt is an admin troll account. I think I'm actually worried at this point that dumb is contagious.

That would be the more comforting explanation.

[bjstare]

That would be the more comforting explanation.

Scary version: He's not actually a troll, just a dunce... and he's old enough to vote :eek:

[Gestalt]

It's actually pretty fascinating. It's amazing that the theory is based on price, and how it affects the supply and demand curves, but everyon making fun of me is assuming the reverse is true, when the theory says nothing of the sort https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/microeconomics/supply-demand-equilibrium

Nasically, they have a bad theory of casue and effect. Changin prices or quantity it the cause, the effect respond is what the supply or demands do in response.

I'm a mechanic, so another mechanic example. If you drive your car without oil, it will fail.

but you can't say that if your car fails, you will drive without oil. which is what bsuter was suggesting.

You cant even say that if your car failed it was beacause you drove without oil, there could be a million reasons it failed.

I honestly think not knowing some things is better than going through life assuming you know them, but knowing them all wrong.

[J-hop]

Thats really not what i said. You got it backwards actully. I said whether price gies up or down, i need a place to live. Well. Except i used commuting. Lets take a survey. How many people moved when gas went from 82 cents recently to 1.04?

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Oh i dont know. Maybe i misunderstood ykur graph, but in my head i get it.

Im watching these videos now, and i gotta say, most you guys have it wrong as well especially buster and jhop.

https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/microeconomics/supply-demand-equilibrium

Wait so you've never taken an econ course in your life, not even a 201?

Sometimes when you think the world is wrong it's worth investigating the validity of your own ideas.

[Gestalt]

Wait so you've never taken an econ course in your life, not even a 201?

Sometimes when you think the world is wrong it's worth investigating the validity of your own ideas.

I barely made it through high school. lol but see above.

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It's actually pretty fascinating. It's amazing that the theory is based on price, and how it affects the supply and demand curves, but everyon making fun of me is assuming the reverse is true, when the theory says nothing of the sort https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/microeconomics/supply-demand-equilibrium

Nasically, they have a bad theory of casue and effect. Changin prices or quantity it the cause, the effect respond is what the supply or demands do in response.

I'm a mechanic, so another mechanic example. If you drive your car without oil, it will fail.

but you can't say that if your car fails, you will drive without oil. which is what bsuter was suggesting.

You cant even say that if your car failed it was beacause you drove without oil, there could be a million reasons it failed.

I honestly think not knowing some things is better than going through life assuming you know them, but knowing them all wrong.

muddy?

[ickyflex]

I barely made it through high school. lol but see above.


This explains everything.