NDP "absolutely reprehensible" to ship more oil by rail

[dirtsniffer]

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2018/11/30/albertas-rachel-notley-finds-herself-isolated-and-living-on-borrowed-time.html


Edmonton-Strathcona MP Linda Duncan, the NDP’s sole Alberta member, encouraged the Liberals to decline the premier’s request. She called the notion of shipping more oil by train an “absolutely reprehensible” proposition. She also said she understood that Notley was “desperate”.

Not that I think it's a great idea either, but seriously the NDP do not want Alberta to recover

[ExtraSlow]

Well, to those who have been using pipeline opposition as a way of shutting down Alberta oil industry and the oilsands in particular, the concept of using more rail absolutely IS reprehensible. That's a position that's consistent with the ideology that we all said the NDP had.

[gwill]

that mp isnt running again and has openly spoken out against all oil sands development recently. She's become outspoken since she's decided she's done politics.

[Neil4Speed]

Being politically agnostic for a moment, I do think that Notley is in a tough spot. Can't build pipelines, purging money by the day in economic wealth, job cuts etc all due to this. This is a band aid, field goal type effort that might alleviate a little. The bigger question is, does CN and CP have capacity?

I know it is unlikely for a foreign entity to try to push for pipelines in another country, but with all of this talk from England, France and Germany about Human rights in SA and killing of Jamal Khashoggi, and Russians carrying out chemical attacks in London... One has to ask if people like May and Macron have sat around one day and gone... "It would be sure nice to not have to deal with countries with incompatible values to ours, if only it wasn't for the oil that we desperately need from them. Its too bad there isn't a country with similar values, speaks the same languages, one that even might have our royalty on their bills, who could provide us with this resource without all of this... if only we could dream".

I get its bigger than this, but makes you think sometimes.

[HiTempguy1]

Rail capacity is fine, there is plenty of room.

Looking at it a-politically, Notley did this to herself regardless of your political views.

Rail cars are not the answer vs cuts to production. But if pipelines are delayed more than a year, its a necessary purchase IMO.

[ZenOps]

Warren Buffett was right.

[ExtraSlow]

Rail cars are not the answer, but she needs to do something, and that is something she can do asap.

Legislation to cut production is much riskier for her. She may still do it, but she'll make powerful enemies with that move.

[J-hop]

Rail capacity is fine, there is plenty of room.

Looking at it a-politically, Notley did this to herself regardless of your political views.

Rail cars are not the answer vs cuts to production. But if pipelines are delayed more than a year, its a necessary purchase IMO.

What do you mean by ‘if pipelines are delayed more than a year” even if they started The TMX now I’m fairly sure it would be years before it’s effectively online and could provide any relief. If the TMX got approved tomorrow it wouldn’t do an ounce of good for our prices.

[ExtraSlow]

TMX is the third pipeline that will get built. Line 3 should be up in H2 2019. Then KXL, then TMX if it ever goes ahead.

[J-hop]

TMX is the third pipeline that will get built. Line 3 should be up in H2 2019. Then KXL, then TMX if it ever goes ahead.


Isn’t kxl all but dead, and the returning of line 3 to full capacity still puts us at the mercy of the US doesn’t it?


Edit: no I was wrong about kxl, don’t know why I thought that. But still has the same issue as line 3 doesn’t it?

[HiTempguy1]

Isn’t kxl all but dead, and the returning of line 3 to full capacity still puts us at the mercy of the US doesn’t it?


Edit: no I was wrong about kxl, don’t know why I thought that. But still has the same issue as line 3 doesn’t it?

We're not at the mercy of the US. Wtf does that even mean?

Our oil is a globally traded commodity. Wcs will always sell at a discount to wti, no different than wti selling at a discount to brent.

[J-hop]

We're not at the mercy of the US. Wtf does that even mean?

Our oil is a globally traded commodity. Wcs will always sell at a discount to wti, no different than wti selling at a discount to brent.

Isn’t it more ‘nuanced’ than that, doesn’t the US import oil from line 3? Also I don’t know do American producers in the northern states use line 3 or the end terminal facilities?

Same probably applies for KXL.

[ExtraSlow]

Once the oil is at a port, it gets world price, basically. Yes the US uses most of the oil we export in thier refineries. The rest can be loaded onto ships.

Exporting any commodity is all about reaching the consumer via the lowest cost route possible. Since Asia is a large importer, it costs more to export oil from Alberta through Oklahoma, Texas, and Panama to get it to China than it would to export that same oil from Alberta to BC to China.

Also, the USA isn't going to have large demand increases, so we'll increasingly need to reach other customers as our production increases.

[J-hop]

Once the oil is at a port, it gets world price, basically. Yes the US uses most of the oil we export in thier refineries. The rest can be loaded onto ships.

Exporting any commodity is all about reaching the consumer via the lowest cost route possible. Since Asia is a large importer, it costs more to export oil from Alberta through Oklahoma, Texas, and Panama to get it to China than it would to export that same oil from Alberta to BC to China.

Also, the USA isn't going to have large demand increases, so we'll increasingly need to reach other customers as our production increases.


Wouldn’t that then suggest that the increase in cost to get our oil to markets outside the US from kxl and line 3 would negate most increase in throughput? Plus the US producers have way more sway at the end of the line than we ever could, how are we to ensure our increased capacity doesn’t get bottlenecked at the end of the line?

Maybe I’m just fear mongering but still feels like the US could choke us at any point.

[Darkane]

Exactly. I’ve been saying in my circle that the USA has such capacity and boom potential they’ll destroy the expectations of analysts growth. And they have.

Next year they could be in the 12.5/day area which is absolutely insane. The USAs growth alone can support the world growth.

[ExtraSlow]

Wouldn’t that then suggest that the increase in cost to get our oil to markets outside the US from kxl and line 3 would negate most increase in throughput?
If Canada could have built a single pipeline with the most national benefit, it would have been northern gateway, no question. Shortest route to China.

But more egress in any direction is good.

[ZenOps]

The only way transportation carbon consumption is going to go up, is if the electric car fails.

There are many more downs than ups. Its the reason why optimistic millennials don't want a pipeline - they don't want to forever be hooked on oil. Not that its wrong/right or even possible in reality.

What millennials want: The entire worldwide repository of movies and songs and books (and the herculean effort it too to create it all), at $1 per month. Truth is, the younger generation gets what they want eventually because - life.

Americans at the turn of the century wanted to travel along the roads without having to scoop up horseshit, horses being the only form of transportation at the time. Millenials seem to want to travel along the roads without dying from carbon monoxide poisoning. Does seem reasonable to me.

[HiTempguy1]

Trudeau can give $50mil to a global education fund but nothing for rail cars.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/trudeau-criticized-for-tweet-to-trevor-noah-pledging-money-for-cause

Seriously fuck this guy.

[msommers]

The only way transportation carbon consumption is going to go up, is if the electric car fails.

There are many more downs than ups. Its the reason why optimistic millennials don't want a pipeline - they don't want to forever be hooked on oil. Not that its wrong/right or even possible in reality.

What millennials want: The entire worldwide repository of movies and songs and books (and the herculean effort it too to create it all), at $1 per month. Truth is, the younger generation gets what they want eventually because - life.

Americans at the turn of the century wanted to travel along the roads without having to scoop up horseshit, horses being the only form of transportation at the time. Millenials seem to want to travel along the roads without dying from carbon monoxide poisoning. Does seem reasonable to me.

According to a very recent report by the Federal Reserve, Millenials actually have less money in comparison to previous generations but have basically the same spending habits as generations before. This has equated to more debt and less assets at comparable ages.


----

In other news, suddenly labour rules for train crews are being looked at (despite being overlooked for 15 years) in light of the latest crude transport plan.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fatigue-transport-canada-railways-oil-shipments-lac-megantic-safety-board-risks-1.4925734?fbclid=IwAR1CyRRDV3AOQPADx4EHg_eRJDHX63gbNgjiXrVI2gxoOKNv4T-BFqz5Jo0

[ExtraSlow]

Stay classy Ottawa!

[rage2]

In other news, suddenly labour rules for train crews are being looked at (despite being overlooked for 15 years) in light of the latest crude transport plan.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fatigue-transport-canada-railways-oil-shipments-lac-megantic-safety-board-risks-1.4925734?fbclid=IwAR1CyRRDV3AOQPADx4EHg_eRJDHX63gbNgjiXrVI2gxoOKNv4T-BFqz5Jo0
This wasn't sudden. This has been a hot topic since Lac Megantic. The article references documentation from May 2018 wanting change and has nothing to do with the latest plans. CBC is trolling you with the timing of the article.

[msommers]

Was CAPP actually haha