Mistake to buy a gas powered vehicle these days?

[5hift]

I was chatting with some friends on this and was wondering what opinion of Beyond was on the influence of the emerging electric market, as well as the impending automation that will happen on the used car market.

Is the car market for gas powered cars a ticking time bomb - I imagine upcoming government incentives to push electric, combined with the emerging automation is going to leave a glut of used gasoline cars in the next decade.

Am I getting ahead of myself here with how fast this change will take place? Opinions?

[A790]

The pace of change will be quick, but the odds of gas-powered vehicles becoming obsolete in the next 15-20 years are low. There's massive infrastructure that needs to be developed to suit electric cars, not to mention inherent limitations placed on them due to the current state of batteries.

[Xtrema]

If 1 cycle of car ownership is 4 years, I expect EV to be on PAR with ICE in 1 cycle and it will be cheaper than ICE and 0 compromises in 2.

This is only if trade war doesn't turn into real wars. China has stopped shipment of rare metal to US and this will stall the green movement a bit.

I think the right ICE car could become collectible.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Xtrema]

On top of all this, if electric cars start to take off... demand for gasoline will drop. Which means the pricing for gas will drop as well. The smart move might be to stick with a gasoline powered car in the long run.

I think it will be opposite, you will lose economy of scale and you will see more gas station closes and it will be more inconvenient to own ICE cars. I expect this to happen when EV becomes the majority of vehicles on the road.


I was thinking about this as well; the conclusion I came to is that unless you have a home charger, it is still a much bigger hassle to own an electric powered car over one powered by a combustion engine.

Won't be a problem for suburbans with garages. If your house is less than 30 years old, it won't be hard to get 2 dryer outlets to garage to charge 2 EVs. Those fancy charger cables really just to save you from whipping the charging cable out of your trunk daily.

The problem is urban condo dwellers. If you live off fast DC charging, you battery will degrade much faster. But no condo is going to invest into a paid system per stall.

[Super_Geo]

I think this will be the last years of the ICE epoch.

Automation is just arriving-- Waymo has launched live autonomous taxi trials in Arizona (albeit on a very small scale) where you don't need to be a beta tester that signed an NDA to use the service. We will start seeing companies start to scale in 2020. Lyft shares have gotten decimated since their $88 high water mark on the first day of trading, but I think people are overlooking the fact that they announced a Waymo partnership in their quarterly report. Getting autonomous taxis on the road takes huge capital up front, but investors are happily piling cash in and the Lyft/Waymo partnership shows that would-be competitors in the space are happy to team up because the addressable market is truly enormous.

Autonomous taxis are projected to decrease the cost of rides by 80%, but I think that will take 5-10 years to hit that price point. By that point owning a car will not make economic sense for larger and larger portions of society. I'm sure that Beyond is an outlier demographic wise, but for most people if they can get form downtown to the suburbs for $6-8 instead of $30-40, why deal with parking, gas/power, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, etc.

That's before we even get to ICE vs EV. With how many miles these autonomous taxis will clock, and how easy it will be to have them drive themselves to charging hubs, large fleets of EVs will make much more sense on a life cycle cost basis. We haven't even explored how much energy can be saved by having autonomous cars drafting/regen-braking in tandem/etc because the space is so new still.

I love driving, but it's going the way of horse back riding... soon it'll be a hobby for the wealthy. Middle/lower class kids born now will likely never push a gas pedal in their life time.

[Rarasaurus]

North America has less than 1% electric cars on the road and 2% of current sales. Norway has the highest at around 10% of all vehicles on the road and 50% of new sales. All gas vehicles bought today will be owned and on the road for 10 years. I think when we see 50% EV rates on the road we can assume 10 to 15 years from then Gas will be dying. At this stage I would guess minimum 15 to 20 years of Gas cars still being dominant.

[Xtrema]

I think this will be the last years of the ICE epoch.

Automation is just arriving-- Waymo has launched live autonomous taxi trials in Arizona (albeit on a very small scale) where you don't need to be a beta tester that signed an NDA to use the service. We will start seeing companies start to scale in 2020. Lyft shares have gotten decimated since their $88 high water mark on the first day of trading, but I think people are overlooking the fact that they announced a Waymo partnership in their quarterly report. Getting autonomous taxis on the road takes huge capital up front, but investors are happily piling cash in and the Lyft/Waymo partnership shows that would-be competitors in the space are happy to team up because the addressable market is truly enormous.

Autonomous taxis are projected to decrease the cost of rides by 80%, but I think that will take 5-10 years to hit that price point. By that point owning a car will not make economic sense for larger and larger portions of society. I'm sure that Beyond is an outlier demographic wise, but for most people if they can get form downtown to the suburbs for $6-8 instead of $30-40, why deal with parking, gas/power, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, etc.

That's before we even get to ICE vs EV. With how many miles these autonomous taxis will clock, and how easy it will be to have them drive themselves to charging hubs, large fleets of EVs will make much more sense on a life cycle cost basis. We haven't even explored how much energy can be saved by having autonomous cars drafting/regen-braking in tandem/etc because the space is so new still.

I love driving, but it's going the way of horse back riding... soon it'll be a hobby for the wealthy. Middle/lower class kids born now will likely never push a gas pedal in their life time.

I think that tech should arrive just around the time they take my license away....

6 years ago, I though we would have robotaxi today. In some way, Waymo does have a fleet out there but so far everything is still very beta.

I think with Moore's law no longer applies, we are still quite a bit from realizing this dream. Especially we don't have world wide cooperation.

If anything the way the Chinese stats is collecting every bit of data out there, they have way more dataset to traing their AI. They may get there before we do.


North America has less than 1% electric cars on the road and 2% of current sales. Norway has the highest at around 10% of all vehicles on the road and 50% of new sales. All gas vehicles bought today will be owned and on the road for 10 years. I think when we see 50% EV rates on the road we can assume 10 to 15 years from then Gas will be dying. At this stage I would guess minimum 10 to 20 years of Gas cars still being dominant.

Most government has mandate of 2030 or 2040 as end of sales of ICE. So it will be on the road for another 15-20 after that. There is no such ban planned for NA other than BC talking about it. So we may be last to get off ICE.

[Mitsu3000gt]

Looking out only decade, I don't think much will change at all in terms of how many purely electric cars are around, IMHO. For complete gas vehicle obsolescence, I'd be utterly shocked if we see it in any of our lifetimes.

Fact of the matter is that current electric vehicles are more of a hassle when it comes to charging stations (major hassle), winter use, range, etc. and if you're doing it for the environment, that electricity is coming almost entirely from coal in Alberta.

The next phase seems to be stronger hybrids (performance based not just economy based) and I feel like that is going to go on for a long time before EV's become so popular from major manufacturers that they outnumber gas vehicles - other than Tesla, other manufacturers are barely dabbling in it.

Stick with gas, in my opinion - even if you keep your car for 10 years. Think about how many new and new-ish cars are on the road right now, they will all be around for way longer than 10 years.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ExtraSlow]

Doubt you'd have time to regret it in 14 weeks.

[revelations]

The rural Canadian people will almost NEVER switch out to EV or autonomous vehicles. There will ALWAYS be ICE engines being made, but they will become more rare - just like V12s and V8s have already.

ICE engine reliability peaked around 2000-2005 but new turbo engines, plus other extreme emission regulations are making newer engine reliability long term, a huge problem. People will want to go EV because of shit like that.

[ExtraSlow]

I think it won't be long before nearly every form of personal auto is some kind of Hybrid or EV. It just makes sense. Even the various plug-in hybrid options have greatly improved in the last few years.

However, it takes longer than people realize to change over the entire consumer fleet. Decades. So until the majority of new car sales are Hybrid/EV, don't expect rapid change in fleet composition.

[370Z]

Sometimes i really wish the government will outlaw normal cars in favor of self driving cars, as much as that would sadden me, it would make everyone safer.

[revelations]

Sometimes i really wish the government will outlaw normal cars in favor of self driving cars, as much as that would sadden me, it would make everyone safer.

The cost of making 100% of roads 'smart' - this includes all the dirt roads outside the cities - make this a moot point, that will NEVER happen.

[A790]

The cost of making 100% of roads 'smart' - this includes all the dirt roads outside the cities - make this a moot point, that will NEVER happen.

Disagree. The benefits gained by this shift are enormous. It will absolutely happen- it's a function of "when".

[speedog]

The cost of making 100% of roads 'smart' - this includes all the dirt roads outside the cities - make this a moot point, that will NEVER happen.

Over any of our lifetimes we have already seen things happen that we never thought would happen at one point in the past. I can only look at my one grandmother who lived to be 97 years old and think of all of the changes she witnessed and experianced during her life time and based on that, 100% of the roads being smart is easily attainable. Now this won't be reached by making physical changes to 100% of the roads/trails out there but will be attained by advances in artificial intelligence that vehicles will get. Case in point, someone I know is currently renting a lowly Hyundai and even it has autonomous keep in your lane capabilities, this kind of capability in any car was unthinkable some 40 years ago and yet here it is in economy cars.

[rage2]

EVs are still early adopter technology today in terms of cost, it’s just that we have government subsidies to shift that burden to the taxpayer to make it closer to mass market. As recent as 2 years ago, the trend towards price parity due to battery costs was sitting at 2030 but Tesla has been doing a great job at cutting storage costs and accelerating that timeline quickly.

I consider myself an early adopter, and my next car in the next 2-3 years will probably be an EV because they are fun to daily drive. Honestly, I really enjoy driving Tesla’s, the Model 3 Performance is an absolute blast, would be driving one this cycle if it wasn’t such a piece of crap. So here I am waiting for the big manufacturers to give me better luxury amenities, better build quality, with a shittier drivetrain.

[revelations]

Disagree. The benefits gained by this shift are enormous. It will absolutely happen- it's a function of "when".

Agree that the potential benefits are amazing:

- car to car, short range telemetry (hey other car, I am going THIS way, be aware) to prevent collisions, or to enhance range by creating an aerodynamically efficient 'train' of vehicles on the highway
- definitely reduce accidents cause by driver error
- drunk driving nearly eliminated completely
- save so much time for parents not having to pickup kids
- in shit winter snow weather, the system will ALWAYS know where the road is thanks to smart road sensors which tell you EoP and CL.

However, even if ALL roads are made smart - it will never be '100%' driverless vehicles on the road. It will be 95%.

People now drive in 1970s vehicles for pleasure - in the future it will be the same with other models. Some people will WANT to be independent and use self driving vehicles for basic commuting purposes but have non-self driving vehicles for pleasure.

Motorcyclists will also NEVER give up anything for autonomy.



Over any of our lifetimes we have already seen things happen that we never thought would happen at one point in the past. I can only look at my one grandmother who lived to be 97 years old and think of all of the changes she witnessed and experianced during her life time and based on that, 100% of the roads being smart is easily attainable. Now this won't be reached by making physical changes to 100% of the roads/trails out there but will be attained by advances in artificial intelligence that vehicles will get. Case in point, someone I know is currently renting a lowly Hyundai and even it has autonomous keep in your lane capabilities, this kind of capability in any car was unthinkable some 40 years ago and yet here it is in economy cars.

Im actually a little envious as the people living in the 50s and 60s had a very speedy change in terms of quality of life - but then advances in long range transportation speed slowed right the fuck down to where we are today - traveling SLOWER in many cases than those back in the 60s and 70s (esp. air travel). The golden age of air travel, concorde, etc - people had some VERY cool options back in the day (for those who could afford it).

If you ask someone in the 60s where they thought we would be at today - almost 70 years later - they would be shocked at the stagnation.

Cars still pollute, use pistons and gasoline and ONLY travel in 2d space - human space travel has been all but eliminated except for the few - coal still powers some of our electricity (or Nat gas). Computers are still dumb in that they have to be told what to do (software) - there has been miniaturization and optimization but no practical AI.

-----------------------------------------

Now, what we need is an energy revolution - LENR appears to be the way to go:

http://www.lenr-cars.com/index.php/technology/lenr

[speedog]

If you ask someone in the 60s where they thought we would be at today - almost 70 years later...

Okay, what kind of marth are you using?

Cuz I'm not in my 70's yet.

[speedog]

Btw, I'm a kid of the 60's and cars are way better and way more capable these days. Computers as well and for that matter, pretty much everything. Shit, I don't even have to get to a bank before 3:30pm on a Friday to have enough cash for the weekend like I had to in the 80's.

[revelations]

Its not that there havent been advances - is that there were revolutions in meaningful industries (energy, transportation) back in the 50s and 60s, which we have not seen since.

Yes, you would see things being optimized - thats human engineering nature - but the big shifts have not happened that were expected.

[A790]

Its not that there havent been advances - is that there were revolutions in meaningful industries (energy, transportation) back in the 50s and 60s, which we have not seen since.

Yes, you would see things being optimized - thats human engineering nature - but the big shifts have not happened that were expected.

Mobile computing - we now have access to the entire summation of human knowledge in our pocket
Massive poverty reduction - The % of global population living in poverty has plummeted
Robotics - entire industries are now manned by machines
Efficiency - From air travel, commuter transportation, and power generation... we have never been this efficient
Industrial science - nano-scale devices, graphene, & more that are redefining our world
Information technology - At a scale simply unheard of in the 60s
Renewable energy generation - While not yet powering the globe, its scale is increasing and so is its ability; it will be the majority form of energy generation within our lifetimes
Health - including genetic engineering, human augmentation, & other areas of health science that empower us to live longer, more capable lives


To name a few.

To say that there hasn't been revolutions in meaningful industries is not at all accurate. Look at how cars are assembled today (as an example).

We are also looking at a reality of suborbital flights becoming mainstream, likely within our lifetimes.

The world has evolved more in the past 10 years than it did in the 50 before it. I don't know how anyone could believe otherwise.

[revelations]

Mobile computing - we now have access to the entire summation of human knowledge in our pocket
Massive poverty reduction - The % of global population living in poverty has plummeted
Robotics - entire industries are now manned by machines
Efficiency - From air travel, commuter transportation, and power generation... we have never been this efficient
Industrial science - nano-scale devices, graphene, & more that are redefining our world
Information technology - At a scale simply unheard of in the 60s
Renewable energy generation - While not yet powering the globe, its scale is increasing and so is its ability; it will be the majority form of energy generation within our lifetimes
Health - including genetic engineering, human augmentation, & other areas of health science that empower us to live longer, more capable lives


To name a few.

To say that there hasn't been revolutions in meaningful industries is not at all accurate. Look at how cars are assembled today (as an example).

We are also looking at a reality of suborbital flights becoming mainstream, likely within our lifetimes.

The world has evolved more in the past 10 years than it did in the 50 before it. I don't know how anyone could believe otherwise.

Again, the primary industries that I looked at were Energy and Transportation.

Having an Iphone with apps that allow you to drive distracted now is not advanced. We still make phone calls like we did 60 years ago.
Yes, communications speeds and information dissemination has vastly improved, but our LIVES are still being limited in many ways.
Most people watch TV like they did 50 years ago, glued to their shows. The quality of the image has improved (as in, who cares).

Again, improvements in efficiency is the natural result of 60 years the same thing. Nothing unusual about that.

-We still drive in dead dinosaur-powered piston moving engines.
-We travel SLOWER on average in long-haul travel than 40 years ago
-We still rely on dead dinosaurs to heat and light our homes in many parts of the world

If you lived in the 60s, given the revolutionary advancements of the time - the year 2000 was a time where:

- cities and roads were fully 3d.
- AI servants for all - androids would have been common (instead of a dumb phone)
- we would have colonized moon and mars
- intercontinental travel would take minutes or a few hours at most
- scalable fusion-type energy available for all, in all sizes (compact for vehicles, larger for industries)

[ExtraSlow]

Faster air travel will be a big breakthrough once someone figures out how to do it economically. Clearly current tech uses too much fuel at high speeds, so a new tech will be required, possibly scramjets or something.

[heavyD]

In regards to the OP I feel there are too many people that like to talk of ICE being finished but really it's the golden years where we are seeing the absolute best in ICE engines and that should run another decade or more. I mean it's easy to say you are going electric but what's your options right now? It's really slim pickings and in this day and age nobody holds on to cars more than 3-5 years so ICE is still the way to go for a while yet. A lot of "sky is falling because of climate change" crowd likes to talk but don't have the wallets to back it up (hence the tiny market share of EV) and really today's ICE powered cars are pretty fuel efficient. I'm shocked how good the fuel economy is on my M2 for a car that has what would have been considered near supercar performance 15 years ago.

[spikerS]

EVs are still early adopter technology today in terms of cost, it’s just that we have government subsidies to shift that burden to the taxpayer to make it closer to mass market. As recent as 2 years ago, the trend towards price parity due to battery costs was sitting at 2030 but Tesla has been doing a great job at cutting storage costs and accelerating that timeline quickly.

I consider myself an early adopter, and my next car in the next 2-3 years will probably be an EV because they are fun to daily drive. Honestly, I really enjoy driving Tesla’s, the Model 3 Performance is an absolute blast, would be driving one this cycle if it wasn’t such a piece of crap. So here I am waiting for the big manufacturers to give me better luxury amenities, better build quality, with a shittier drivetrain.

I believe there are 2 classes of "early adopters"

First is the "Earliest" adopter. That is the person who jumps in with both feet at the very first opportunity. The guys who put down full deposits on the first Teslas without one even hitting the streets. They don't care, they want to be the first. High risk and potential for the reward to be high, or fraught with headaches.

Second is the "early" adopter. The person who lets the earliest adopters experience all the major bugs, and lets them get ironed out before taking the plunge. Less headaches, but they are more tolerable.

If I don't buy my new truck this summer, I am going to keep this one until Ford launches their full EV F150 in like 2020 or 2021. Once they launch it, I will be picking one up. Most of the EV bugs and such will have been ironed out by then, and I don't mind being one of the first people to own one. In this case though, I would still consider myself an early adopter as the earliest adopters have already experienced the big migraines and by then, Ford will have learned from them, and the truck should be fairly bulletproof at that point.

[spikerS]

Faster air travel will be a big breakthrough once someone figures out how to do it economically. Clearly current tech uses too much fuel at high speeds, so a new tech will be required, possibly scramjets or something.

anything over the speed of sound isn't going to happen due to sonic boom issues. Air travel as we know it is as fast as it is ever going to get.

Sub-orbital flights for extreme distances will be about the only exception to that, and for then, only for extreme distances, IE New York to Sydney Australia and similarly long-distance routes.

[Gman.45]

Btw, I'm a kid of the 60's and cars are way better and way more capable these days. Computers as well and for that matter, pretty much everything. Shit, I don't even have to get to a bank before 3:30pm on a Friday to have enough cash for the weekend like I had to in the 80's.

But you had Coca Cola in the glass bottles.

[speedog]

But you had Coca Cola in the glass bottles.

Well that is true and firecrackers and honest to goodness lawn darts.

[Super_Geo]

'The pain is just beginning': After 38,000 layoffs, Wall Street wakes up to 'peak car' (https://www.businessinsider.com/peak-car-38000-layoffs-job-losses-sales-at-auto-makers-2019-5)

Peak car, shortly after peak ICE, then it's just a matter of time before it's almost all EV.

[rage2]

Surprised it took so long for peak car. The average age of obtaining drivers license has been going up year after year for over a decade. It’s at 26 years old now.

[killramos]

Sounds like the kind of headlines people who have never left a major city come up with.

[ExtraSlow]

Peak car is probably like peak oil. Going to be discussed breathlessly for decades while the predictions keep getting pushed further and further into the future.

And, spikerS, LOL at electric F150 being available in 2020. Maybe they'll announce it in 2020 for actual availability in 2023 or something.

[Darkane]

Surprised it took so long for peak car. The average age of obtaining drivers license has been going up year after year for over a decade. It’s at 26 years old now.

Holy crap. People must have freedom, isn’t that what driving is?!

[spikerS]

And, spikerS, LOL at electric F150 being available in 2020. Maybe they'll announce it in 2020 for actual availability in 2023 or something.

I wouldn't be so sure. Ford pumped $500 million into Rivian, an EV truck maker, and there already spotted pictures of the current gen F-150 mated to the platform driving around in the wild. While I am not willing to place money on it, I could envision a world where it is launched late 2020. Granted that might be a little ambitious, but if not 2020, then 2021 for sure. I think 2023 would be too late to the market for them.

VY8LG8xrRho

And another explaining how there is another F150 mated to the Rivian platform
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/13/2020-rivian-a1t-electric-pickup-spy-shots-ford-f-150/

[rage2]

Holy crap. People must have freedom, isn’t that what driving is?!
Guess internet replaced that haha. Who needs to go out and see shit when you have Instagram?

[ExtraSlow]

I wouldn't be so sure. Ford pumped $500 million into Rivian....
Yeah, they are working on it, but the idea it'll available that soon is crazy.

[revelations]

anything over the speed of sound isn't going to happen due to sonic boom issues. Air travel as we know it is as fast as it is ever going to get.


Thats not correct:

- supersonic biz jets are coming soon
- many of these have modified sonic booms (quiet) and are looking for over-land flights certification
- the others will be oceanic

Wiki:


In November 2015, Flexjet confirmed that they had placed a firm order valued at $2.4 billion for twenty Aerion AS2s, with delivery to begin in 2023.[2]

Flexjet CEO Kenn Ricci said the company would use the supersonic jet for overseas flights and also in China, which does not have restrictions on sonic booms.

Ricci noted that, with the aircraft traveling at Mach 1.2, its boom would not reach the ground, possibly allowing regulators to permit supersonic flight over land.

[spikerS]

Thats not correct:

- supersonic biz jets are coming soon
- many of these have modified sonic booms (quiet) and are looking for over-land flights certification
- the others will be oceanic

Wiki:

Well, I won't pretend to understand the physics behind it, but if they can figure out how to mute a sonic boom, that would totally make me geek out.

- - - Updated - - -


Yeah, they are working on it, but the idea it'll available that soon is crazy.

maybe, but I am sure they were working on it before the investment into Rivian, and they already have test mules out in the wild...again, I don't think it would be all that crazy. Like I said, late 2020 is probably really ambitious, but I would be surprised if it wasn't released in 2021 as a MY 2022.

[bjstare]

[COLOR="silver"]- - - Updated - - -[/COL
maybe, but I am sure they were working on it before the investment into Rivian, and they already have test mules out in the wild...again, I don't think it would be all that crazy. Like I said, late 2020 is probably really ambitious, but I would be surprised if it wasn't released in 2021 as a MY 2022.

Doesn't matter what they do with the truck, there probably won't be battery technology good enough for long distance towing, and there won't be charging tech/infrastructure built to make up for the frequent charging required. We're at least a few years from a usable (for actual truck things, not just driving to your office downtown) electric truck, imo.

[Darkane]

The EV F-150 isn’t a great idea yet.

The hybrid is money in the bank! 136L fuel cell and a tuned 3.3NA for hybrid use would be great.

For towing you’re still looking pure gas. However, a diesel hybrid is something manufacturers need to investigate in the F-150.

Hello 30mpg city.

[tonytiger55]

Im on the opposite side of this. I don't think ICE vehicles are going to be obsolete anywhere soon or in the near future.

If you take the entire production processes of mining, transporting, processing and producing electric vehicles its not as green in comparison to ICE vehicles.

Automation may work on new cities bases on a grid system. But I don't see it happening unless the automated industry agrees on a uniform code where they can communicate with other cars to calculate telemetry, a communication system with traffic signals and smart roads. I dont see that happening for a while, the best the city councillors can do is build a airport tunnel that goes nowhere. Then you have issue of weather too. I don't see a automated vehicle going up the hill on 14th street when it snows.

Then you have unions. They see this coming, they are going to strike as they don't want their workers laid off. Hell we can't even get the Oyster card style tap and pay on the transit system here. What chance do we have of automation..?

Electric vehicles and gasoline have almost the same energy density. The problem with the electric vehicles and batteries is that the fuel not mobile. You are confined to your city. Which is not a bad point. But there are other issues.
If I drive in the middle of nowhere and I run our of gas, I can still fill up. You can't do that with a electric vehicle. What about police and ambulance..? When there are multiples emergencies, do they stop and say wait. We have to recharge for a hour..?

We have disasters here, fire, flood, hail etc. What happens when there is a power outage and your car is low on charge and its -25c..? What about the guy who comes to fix the electrical station if his car has run out of electricity..?

Here is a example. Back in the late 90's protesters blockaded refineries in the UK because the price of fuel was too high. Petrol stations closed as they ran out of gas.
This was all fine and dandy until the implications started to hit hard. Police, Firetrucks were impacted. More importantly nurses and doctors. They could not get to hospital. THey were asking if they could go to the head of the lineup as they could not get to work.

Now flip the scenario to electric. Its even worse.

How will automated vehicles work in places like India where people just refuse to obey traffic laws and you have cows in the middle of the road..? There is still a massive market for non automated and gasoline vehicles for a loooooong time.

Then there is possibility of marriage and our society breaking down.
Supposing you ate a dodgy spicy chicken vindaloo the night before and in the morning you get the shits.. Combined with a heavy snowfall the night before and there is a powercut.

86225

You toilet stops flushing, you cant get a plumber out as there as his electric truck needs charging. The kids are screaming and crying because the toilet is getting filled with poo and they can't flush.

You wife is pissed at you and decides to file for divorce because you can't deal with shit. Cholera and Typhoid run rampant because of a lack of flushing water.
86227
You cant get to hospital as Ambulances and emergency services are dealing with other emergencies and they have run out of charge.
SO you run to the hospital with your child.

86228
Only to realise there are no doctors as they can't get to the hospital. The whole province transcends into apocalyptic chaos, people burn cars trying to stay warm.

Rachel Notley see's this as a political opportunity. She decides to shave her hair, change her name to Furiosa and jumps into a big rig towards the Alberta legislature to seize power.
86230

Kenny gallantly gives chase down highway 2 and tries to stop her. The whole chase becomes the movie Mad Max but with snow.

86231

Yeah... we are screwed.. I just don't see automation and electric happening soon.

Im off to make some afternoon tea...

[ZenOps]

As with all things look at what is the limiting factor. For vehicles in Calgary, its not the vehicles themselves - its the parking. What will exacerbate things is the idea that not every indoor spot has a NEMA high amp plug at disposal, and outdoor that much rarer.

Parking lots will have to do at least some revisions to run power cabling to be able to plug in cars. 1500 watt standard outlets will probably not cut it for many people. Although Alberta does tend to have rough electrical plug ins as block heaters as a good headstart on other cities.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Twin_Cam_Turbo]

I’m all for things that improve fuel efficiency whether it be EVs or advancements in ICE technology.

[A790]

Honestly, as soon as automated taxi's become widely adopted, my days owning a car are over. They're too fucking expensive to sit around doing nothing 98% of the time. Would rather take that capital and apply it elsewhere.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[heavyD]

Guess internet replaced that haha. Who needs to go out and see shit when you have Instagram?

Is that number also influenced by immigrants? I realize that teens aren't getting their licenses right away at 16 like when we were young but 26 seems pretty high.

[Xtrema]

Is that number also influenced by immigrants? I realize that teens aren't getting their licenses right away at 16 like when we were young but 26 seems pretty high.

Our generation were fed the idea that if you wanna fuck, you need a car.

Now all you need is Tinder.

[revelations]

I got my learners the day I turned 16 because I wanted out of the house and go places with friends. Is this not the case anymore?

[Xtrema]

I got my learners the day I turned 16 because I wanted out of the house and go places with friends. Is this not the case anymore?

It was never the case with Asian families. Now I stay to see Caucasian kids are staying home well into 20s as well unless they leave home town for school.

[ExtraSlow]

I got my learners the day I turned 16 because I wanted out of the house and go places with friends. Is this not the case anymore?

It's not. My brothers kids all took years, although they all did eventually get them.

I got my learners within 1 week of turning 14. Both parents said if I wanted to go anywhere I needed to drive them there.

[revelations]

It was never the case with Asian families. Now I stay to see Caucasian kids are staying home well into 20s as well unless they leave home town for school.

Im talking about going to hang with friends - movies, diners, etc. Also sporting events to play.


It's not. My brothers kids all took years, although they all did eventually get them.

I got my learners within 1 week of turning 14. Both parents said if I wanted to go anywhere I needed to drive them there.

Yea same - we had one car at the time so it meant lots of pickups and dropoffs if the car was to be used.

[spikerS]

I got my learners the day I turned 16 because I wanted out of the house and go places with friends. Is this not the case anymore?

I got mine days after I turned 14, and my full licence in that same timeframe at 16.

My oldest daughter turned 14, and I keep poking her to get her learners, but she is in no rush...

[killramos]

I got my learners the day I turned 16 because I wanted out of the house and go places with friends. Is this not the case anymore?

My wife's sister is graduating high school next week. Doesn't even have her learners, less than no interest in driving.

Her younger sister is a few years younger though and I am sure will have hers within weeks of being legal.

There are a lot of messed up kids these days.

[ExtraSlow]

My oldest daughter turned 14, and I keep poking her to get her learners, but she is in no rush... do you drive her places?

[spikerS]

honestly, she doesn't go far. She is an introvert and prefers to be alone most of the time. So if she goes anywhere, most of the time it is with us, so yes, we drive her.

I imagine it might be different if she had a vibrant social life...

[Misterman]

I got my learners the day I turned 16 because I wanted out of the house and go places with friends. Is this not the case anymore?

I couldn't wait that long. I wanted my full license on my 16th birthday, so got my learners on my 14th birthday just to be ready.

And Tinder still doesn't help kids get laid when they live at home. I had no problem getting tail without Tinder at 16, the issue was needing somewhere to take them. Car it was. I would imagine that should still hold true? But I guess when kids are struggling to figure out which bathroom to use, sex becomes much more difficult waters to navigate.

As far as OP. We are WAY off of EV supremacy. Gasoline vehicles(When did we start using the acronym for In Car Entertainment synonymously to mean Internal combustion engine btw?) are here to stay for a long time. Even if they could figure out the logistics problem of EV's and get a charge time down to what it takes to fill up with gas, they still would need massive infrastructure improvements to the electrical system. Hell they already have rolling blackouts in some places just from the spike in A/C usage in summer months. How the hell are they going to deal with all those people simultaneously charging their batteries? Also, we are still depleting a natural resource for EV's to be possible. At what point do we become screwed because there isn't enough metals left to keep creating batteries? I'd speculate that could happen faster than we would run out of gasoline/oil. Unless we get space mining figured out sooner than later.

[94boosted]

I think ICE cars are safe for years to come. I personally can’t see myself getting into a fully electric car until something like the Tesla Model 3 Performance has the build quality of a car costing $50K, let alone $85K and of course it actually costs $50K (in today’s dollars). I don’t see that happening for 5-10 years at least.

We’re definitely living in a golden age of the ICE now, the average joe can afford a car with 650+HP :eek:

[rage2]

I think ICE cars are safe for years to come. I personally can’t see myself getting into a fully electric car until something like the Tesla Model 3 Performance has the build quality of a car costing $50K, let alone $85K and of course it actually costs $50K (in today’s dollars). I don’t see that happening for 5-10 years at least.
That's just unrealistic. Nothing touches it in performance at that price range today, so I don't understand why you have a $50k target.

[Misterman]

That's just unrealistic. Nothing touches it in performance at that price range today, so I don't understand why you have a $50k target.

Maybe he is comparing to used market? :dunno:

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ExtraSlow]

Once EV are made in large volume, price will absolutely come down. They should be cheaper to manufacture because as you noted, they are much simpler.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[rage2]

Electric cars are a lot more simple, they shouldn't really cost as much as they do now once it becomes more mainstream

Once EV are made in large volume, price will absolutely come down. They should be cheaper to manufacture because as you noted, they are much simpler.
Battery costs are the killer today. With that said, ICE has been so optimized, I'd argue a high efficiency electric motor today is more complicated to build than a basic ICE.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[94boosted]

That's just unrealistic. Nothing touches it in performance at that price range today, so I don't understand why you have a $50k target.

$50K to start, $60K fully optioned out for a car that can really only do one thing well (straight line acceleration) I don't think that's unreasonable 5-10 years from now, especially as the technology for electric cars gets refined and more competitors enter the market :dunno:.

As for nothing touching it's performance, yes it's fast in a straight line but that's pretty much it, as far as a performance if I was spending $85K today I'd much rather get something like an RS3, ATS-V, M3 etc. as personally I think those are better all around performance cars.

[rage2]

The Model 3 can do more than go fast in a straight line. Seriously people, are we making assumptions without even trying the car? The 3 Performance would destroy everything stock at an autocross. Run with those cars you listed at a track day for a few laps.

The S might’ve been a boat around corners, the 3 Performance is highly capable even with those skinny ass tires. It’s probably one of the best point to point cars I’ve ever driven.

[JustinL]

There's a pretty good topgear video on youtube of a Model 3 vs. M3 testing day at a track. I was sad, but the Model 3 trounced the M3 in almost every test. The test is somewhat skewed in favor of the Tesla as they didn't test braking outright, but included a 0-100-0 test which lets the Model 3 use it's acceleration to get a better score. I'm sure the M3 is better on the brakes and over a longer multi-lap test would also probably come out ahead. The Model 3 is no slouch on track and over one lap is faster than the BMW.

My next car will have some kind of a plug in. I'm not sure if it will be hybrid or battery, but I'm waiting for the Germans to come out with something reasonably affordable that gives me the fizz. The Taycan, Audi GT, and VW ID Buzz look super cool.

[88CRX]

I thought the OP was out to lunch by even asking the question.... but apparently everyone is on board with driving electric cars in the immediate future and I'm out to lunch.

Who knew :dunno:

[ExtraSlow]

I thought the OP was out to lunch by even asking the question.... but apparently everyone is on board with driving electric cars in the immediate future and I'm out to lunch.

Who knew :dunno:

I think people are on board with driving electric cars when they are widely available and reliable, which won't be too far into the future. Throw in plug-in hybrids and I think they'll be a huge part of the market within a decade or so.

Now, I don't think you'll be stuck with no buyers for a used ICE vehicle within any reasonable timeframe. So buying an ICE vehicle today is not any kind of "mistake".

[A790]

I thought the OP was out to lunch by even asking the question.... but apparently everyone is on board with driving electric cars in the immediate future and I'm out to lunch.

Who knew :dunno:

Times... they are a'changing.

[94boosted]

The Model 3 can do more than go fast in a straight line. Seriously people, are we making assumptions without even trying the car? The 3 Performance would destroy everything stock at an autocross. Run with those cars you listed at a track day for a few laps.

The S might’ve been a boat around corners, the 3 Performance is highly capable even with those skinny ass tires. It’s probably one of the best point to point cars I’ve ever driven.

I'll be honest I've never driven one and was just making assumptions based on a 4100lb curb weight, 8.5" wheels and passive shocks (?).

In autocross it's actually in the same class I compete in (BS) and so far at large US events I believe the only event it won was a ProSolo event in the rain where it had a big advantage due to its straight line acceleration. That being said the car definitely has potential, people are worried that there will be some crazy OTA updates that will give it a big edge.

Around a track I'm not really seeing anything impressive.... https://www.roadandtrack.com/motorsports/a25572997/tesla-model-3-laguna-seca-lap-record/ ….. a 1:41 around Laguna Seca on r-comp Hoosiers and aftermarket suspension.

[Disoblige]

No one is going to stop you from driving an ICE car, but I suspect in the future it will make a lot more economical sense to purchase electric. That will be the main driver.

Also in turn we will see less gas stations, more EV charging stations.

[JustinL]

Around a track I'm not really seeing anything impressive.... https://www.roadandtrack.com/motorsports/a25572997/tesla-model-3-laguna-seca-lap-record/ ….. a 1:41 around Laguna Seca on r-comp Hoosiers and aftermarket suspension.

That's on par with a 981 Cayman S and a lot of others. https://fastestlaps.com/tracks/laguna-seca-post-1988

[killramos]

No one is going to stop you from driving an ICE car, but I suspect in the future it will make a lot more economical sense to purchase electric. That will be the main driver.

Also in turn we will see less gas stations, more EV charging stations.

The concept of EV charging stations is fascinating to think about. Massive up front capital costs, crazy thin margins since you are competing with home usage rates for electricity.

So are they there for regular use? Just for long trips?

I think there is a big reason we haven’t seen any serious players jump into the segment.

Aside from the virtue signalling businesses who are just giving electricity away for free to make themselves look green.

The biggest thing preventing me from trying a model 3P is that I would have to look at it every day, there is one in my parkade at work and that’s painful enough :barf:

[94boosted]

That's on par with a 981 Cayman S and a lot of others. https://fastestlaps.com/tracks/laguna-seca-post-1988

Yes but once again that time was set on Hoosiers and a proper suspension, none the less the ATS-V, M4 and Alfa Romeo were all faster bone stock. All I was saying is that in terms of all around performance there are other cars I'd much rather have for $85K than a Tesla.

[EM2FTL]

The M3 can run laps within a tenth of a second of its best all day long though. Everything i've read about Teslas on track suggested they're surprisingly good despite the curb weight, but that you'll basically get 2-3 hotlaps out of the car before it runs into battery issues...?

[sneek]

The concept of EV charging stations is fascinating to think about. Massive up front capital costs, crazy thin margins since you are competing with home usage rates for electricity.

So are they there for regular use? Just for long trips?


I imagine if we had tons of Level 4 chargers available it would eventually make sense for condo dwellers without a place to charge.

My parents would love to get an EV as the incentives in BC are insane but they have no place to charge. The condo is on the higher end and was built in 2016 so maybe there is hope for upgrades, but having to go out and hunt for charging stations sounds like a nightmare.

[rage2]

I almost bought a model 3 when my E53 was delayed. I didn’t plan on tracking it. Would’ve autox’d it though. It was mega fun on the streets, straight line and cornering, way more than my E53. The creature comforts was shit though, same with using an iPhone with it for music.

[dirtsniffer]

Battery costs are the killer today. With that said, ICE has been so optimized, I'd argue a high efficiency electric motor today is more complicated to build than a basic ICE.

What he said.

[dirtsniffer]

An analogy.

Oilfield pumps. Chevy 350 vs electric motor with vfd

[Sugarphreak]

...

[90_Shelby]

I thought the OP was out to lunch by even asking the question.... but apparently everyone is on board with driving electric cars in the immediate future and I'm out to lunch.

Who knew :dunno:

I was thinking the same thing. Everyone here wants their next car to be electric and here I am wanting to buy a Trackhawk.

[revelations]

I was thinking the same thing. Everyone here wants their next car to be electric and here I am wanting to buy a Trackhawk.

I will end up with a self-driving vehicle one day. Its just too good to pass up, esp. for longer road trips.

This would be wicked - but we would need smart roads to guarantee safety in all conditions.

https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims3/GLOB/legacy_thumbnail/800x450/format/jpg/quality/85/http://o.aolcdn.com/hss/storage/midas/5971ec10b0001a1aa33033dc6c1413ce/201337160/DSCF0214_wm630.jpg

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ExtraSlow]

For long road trips? In that scenario why wouldn't you just fly?

I don't think he's talking about 10+ hour distances. Shit like Edmonton, where flying doesn't save you any time, but its still annoying as hell to do.

I used to have meetings in Whitecourt and Edson really regularly, and self driving would have been amazing.

[Misterman]

For long road trips? In that scenario why wouldn't you just fly?

Maybe because it is 10 times the cost? Same reason people still drive long distances today.


As for charging logistics, the only viable solution I see for these EV's, is they would have to have some type of solar charger integrated into the roof, so that charging stops just aren't required unless it is inclement weather. I can't see people stopping for an hour twice on their way to BC, it's already a 9 hour trek to Kelowna.

[speedog]

9 hour trek to Kelowna? You are most definitely doing something wrong.

[Misterman]

9 hour trek to Kelowna? You are most definitely doing something wrong.

I'd say you're reading my location wrong more than likely.

[Aleks]

I thought the OP was out to lunch by even asking the question.... but apparently everyone is on board with driving electric cars in the immediate future and I'm out to lunch.

Who knew :dunno:

You're not. Most estimates I've seen out there are 50% market share for EVs by 2040. I wouldn't call that immediate.

There are some auto journalists that believe EV won't actually even go anywhere past this initial hype.

[rage2]

I consider myself an early adopter and definitely not the norm.

There's a long way to go before mass EV adoption. I also believe we won't see a big shift until we crack the code on better energy storage solutions, either a better (cheaper/lighter) battery, or HFC + supercapacitors.

[revelations]

For long road trips? In that scenario why wouldn't you just fly?

Honestly, the appeal of flying for some of these trips (eg, to visit family, in Salmon Arm) is now nullified as you are sitting in a vehicle relaxing, just like in an airplane.

I wouldnt go to Vancouver like that, but I can see the 6 hour trips in the summer being 'driven' more now.

Also with supercharging ports and longer range, the actual charging concerns will be minimized.

[ExtraSlow]

Flying is such a pain in the dick too. You are on someone else's schedule, and you can count on 3 hours wasted time plus whatever the actual flight takes. And if you are going to need a car at the other end, add in that expense. I'd take an automomous car even if it was slower.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Misterman]

Yeah I can understand that. The main reason I don't fly to Calgary is because the logistics of trying to get where I'm going once I land are a nightmare.

In Vancouver though the Skytrain runs right to the terminal. It only takes me like 15 minutes to get home. If the City of Calgary would get their shit together and run the train to the airport it would make it a lot easier for people to get around. Not everyone can afford 80$ cab rides.

And Edmonton is even worse than Calgary.

[Jlude]

I ordered my Model S last July and received it in October, I didn't think I would like it as much as I do. I don't think we're close to EV taking over, but it's definitely headed in that direction. North American lacks so much infrastructure that it will be 15+ years before an EV is at that level.



My own condo building is looking at putting in an electric charger... but there is well over 100 residents. I've already spotted more than a dozen electric cars in the parkade. That is already too much to try and share a single charger with. It is just going to be a huge source of frustration for them IMO.


My condo building installed new panels and I had an electrician run a 240v/50amp plug to my parking spots. I get around 40klm/hr charge rate. It's not supercharger speeds, but it's enough for me.

[rage2]

My condo building installed new panels and I had an electrician run a 240v/50amp plug to my parking spots. I get around 40klm/hr charge rate. It's not supercharger speeds, but it's enough for me.
Of the early Tesla owners I know, overkill for home charging was the mistake that everyone seems to make early on, buying dual chargers in early cars etc. You really don't need uber fast charging at home, as you're typically at home for 10h+ a day. More than enough time to charge for daily driving, even in the worst of winter. Fast charging also decreases the life of the battery, so it's better to charge at the slowest rate at home to match your driving patterns.

There's pretty much 0 need for supercharging speeds at home.

[Sugarphreak]

...