COVID-19 Science Thread

[Buster]

Since the other main thread is giving me dick cancer and some form of AIDS at the same time, I thought a more science focused thread would actually be useful.

My favorite source of information on recent COVID science developments is the MedCram youtube channel. It's simply awesome. MedCram is an e-learning site run by a couple of doctors that in normal times is designed to provide teaching to med students. So it doesn't offer much in the way of opinion-type stuff and it doesn't play to the lowest common denominator. At least some training in biochemistry is helpful.

Today's was on the data associated with Vitamin D and ARIs and COVID.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mdc7T2UTHBI

Yesterday's was also interesting talking about vaccines:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kk7KNBak-i0

Highly recommended. They were talking about covid being a blood/endothelial disease way before it became mainstream.

[Xtrema]

Thanks to you, I watch this religiously now.

But man, some topics are dry AF for normies like me.

[01RedDX]

.

[Buster]

I've noticed a steadily growing consensus in two areas, blood type and vitamin D deficiency, in determining both illness severity and vulnerability.

So the two simple things people should be aware of (regardless of pandemic) are their blood type and the need to take vitamin D, I take 5,000 IU daily, even when I get some sun.

How did you arrive at 5000? I know that you can take too much VitD, I just haven't done enough research to see what is considered the safe upper bound.

It seems almost all of the paths to increased mortality lead back to oxidative stress and risk of clotting. Diabetes, obesity, blood type, and any number of internal components that form critical parts of the chain (ie NAC, VitD, etc).

- - - Updated - - -


Thanks to you, I watch this religiously now.

But man, some topics are dry AF for normies like me.

haha, ya, it's not designed to grab you. But I'm nerdtastic, so I find almost all of them interesting.

[Mitsu3000gt]

That is 12.5 times the recommended daily dose of Vitamin D according to the Mayo Clinic, and above 4,000 IU you can get some pretty serious side effects such as kidney damage. I'd maybe check with your doctor before taking that much.

[Xtrema]

So the two simple things people should be aware of (regardless of pandemic) are their blood type and the need to take vitamin D, I take 5,000 IU daily, even when I get some sun.

Woah, I thought 4000IU is max?

I only take 1000IU supplement in winter. I take nothing in summer as I'm outside a lot more.

[max_boost]

I've been taking a multi-vitamin, fish oils, 1000mg vitamin C, 5000IU of Vitamin D3 for like the past 10 years give or take lol It has been great cuz you rarely get sick and when you do everything is fairly mild. Doctors say I'm healthy and to keep doing what I am doing. I like to think so too, combine that with weights and sports but anyway, I can't sleep so FML lol

Looks like I better cut back on my vitamin D as I don't want any serious side effects such as kidney damage

[tonytiger55]

I've been taking a multi-vitamin, fish oils, 1000mg vitamin C, 5000IU of Vitamin D3 for like the past 10 years give or take lol It has been great cuz you rarely get sick and when you do everything is fairly mild. Doctors say I'm healthy and to keep doing what I am doing. I like to think so too, combine that with weights and sports but anyway, I can't sleep so FML lol

Looks like I better cut back on my vitamin D as I don't want any serious side effects such as kidney damage

What brand multi vitamins do you take?

[max_boost]

What brand multi vitamins do you take?

for the longest time I was taking 89coupe recommended Usana https://askthescientists.com/qa/cellsentials/

tbh I switched because yellow pee was annoying and then I met a friend who was one of those health/nutrition related ppl etc. and recommended this https://www.seroyal.com/phyto-greens-capsules.html

I have been taking the phyto greens for almost 2 years now :dunno:

Now if there are any beyond experts here, feel free to analyze those two and tell me the diff cuz sometimes I just blindly trust ppl i.e. Strathmore lol :rofl: :rofl:

[max_boost]

To add I also take ZMA at night time (Zinc magnesium aspartate) https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/zma#benefits

Who knows if all this really works or not but it seems like it does so until the Doctor tells me differently, I don't plan to change anything. It has kept me in pretty good shape and I need to be cuz #nodaysoff life

[Xtrema]

Vaccine Tracker
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirusvaccinetracker/


Looks like Oxford is our best hope right now but Sinovac seems to be better for people with weakened immune system but less effective. Sounds like both can be out of stage 3 by fall/early winter.

[Buster]

These guys are really good as well.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

[Misterman]

How did you arrive at 5000? I know that you can take too much VitD, I just haven't done enough research to see what is considered the safe upper bound.

It seems almost all of the paths to increased mortality lead back to oxidative stress and risk of clotting. Diabetes, obesity, blood type, and any number of internal components that form critical parts of the chain (ie NAC, VitD, etc).

- - - Updated - - -



haha, ya, it's not designed to grab you. But I'm nerdtastic, so I find almost all of them interesting.

Some of the reading I've done is saying 8000iu VitD is max dose. Above that you risk all these bad side effects. However people have taken upwards of 10,000iu with no adverse effects. I just keep it at 4000iu for myself.

[Disoblige]

I take 3-4 pills of the Costco vitamin D tablets (1000 IU each) everyday during the winter.

[Darkane]

Chalk me up in the too much vit D. But.. it wasn’t.

I did 11,000IU daily for months. Working nights, and working with my doctor, that was my normal.

We ran the specific blood work, the 25-hydroxy Vit D test (25-OH) three times.

11,000 put me into the upper normal range. Doc was surprised, we both came away really satisfied and he was really pleased that he learned some “real field study” data.

Is 11,000 right for you? Could be.

I also don’t do 11,000 anymore, however I occasionally hyper dose it. Twice a week of 20,000 IU.

D is pretty benign and you need A LOT to overdose.

Cliffs - get tested and 25-OH is the test you need. Before being tested do a 6 week trial of 2000IU to gauge a baseline.

[killramos]

That’s a lot of vitamin D lol...

I thought I was high by taking the few hundred units in a daily multi and an extra 1000 a day as per doctor recommendations.

[The Cosworth]

Posting just so this shows up for me on the 'What's New'

[ExtraSlow]

Vitamin D is incredibly safe as long as you are well hydrated. I suspect the vast majority is just pissed out, but if you feel good with that dosage, go nuts.

[SKR]

Vitamin D is incredibly safe as long as you are well hydrated. I suspect the vast majority is just pissed out, but if you feel good with that dosage, go nuts.

Vitamin D isn't water soluble, so it isn't just pissed out.

[Buster]

Looks like Oxford is pushing for human challenge trials. I've been calling for this for months, but it looks like it might finally happen.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/16/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-team-volunteers-lab-controlled-human-challenge-trial

[ZenOps]

If you ask me, just eat a banana every day - maybe up it to banana and a half if you have symptoms like "chills" or the "shakes".

You are going to need the potassium to overcome the muscle fatigue, and fatigue seems to be a big factor for some. And yeah, no bacon, repeat no bacon.

[Xtrema]

Looks like Oxford is pushing for human challenge trials. I've been calling for this for months, but it looks like it might finally happen.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/16/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-team-volunteers-lab-controlled-human-challenge-trial

Very cool. That should knock it out of the park on validation.

[Kobe]

How did you arrive at 5000? I know that you can take too much VitD, I just haven't done enough research to see what is considered the safe upper bound.

It seems almost all of the paths to increased mortality lead back to oxidative stress and risk of clotting. Diabetes, obesity, blood type, and any number of internal components that form critical parts of the chain (ie NAC, VitD, etc).

- - - Updated - - -



haha, ya, it's not designed to grab you. But I'm nerdtastic, so I find almost all of them interesting.

I can't answer "max" per day but a friend who finished medical school told me a few months ago that since we live so far north even if you are working in the sun for 10 hours a day we won't ever get enough Vitamin D from the sun... ever so even then you can take 2000 - 3000UI a day.

Here is a screenshot of when i was sick and told him what supplements I was taking to ask if I should cut one of them out or something.

https://i.gyazo.com/1b0f6ca47b8fbf9d307064b1795a4d5d.png



To add I also take ZMA at night time (Zinc magnesium aspartate) https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/zma#benefits

Who knows if all this really works or not but it seems like it does so until the Doctor tells me differently, I don't plan to change anything. It has kept me in pretty good shape and I need to be cuz #nodaysoff life



Yah I take Magnesium Glycinate about an hour before bed, it really helps me have a good nights sleep (and helps me fall asleep)

Purchased this, maybe a placebo but it seems to help: https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B07WHF8W91/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

[ExtraSlow]

Vitamin D isn't water soluble, so it isn't just pissed out.
I should stay out of these science threads. I know nothing.

[killramos]

I should stay out of these science threads. I know nothing.

What I am reading is keep your poop pushed in and you can’t get coronavirus

Science

[SKR]

I should stay out of these science threads. I know nothing.

If I had to keep out of threads because I didn't know anything I wouldn't be allowed to participate here at all.

[The Cosworth]

Thanks for Med-Cram. I didn't focus at all in biology in school and I found most of it easy to follow and the rest I could look up or wasn't material for my understanding of the details.

I've sat here for the last hour and a half watching them.

[max_boost]

I can't answer "max" per day but a friend who finished medical school told me a few months ago that since we live so far north even if you are working in the sun for 10 hours a day we won't ever get enough Vitamin D from the sun... ever so even then you can take 2000 - 3000UI a day.

Here is a screenshot of when i was sick and told him what supplements I was taking to ask if I should cut one of them out or something.

https://i.gyazo.com/1b0f6ca47b8fbf9d307064b1795a4d5d.png






Yah I take Magnesium Glycinate about an hour before bed, it really helps me have a good nights sleep (and helps me fall asleep)

Purchased this, maybe a placebo but it seems to help: https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B07WHF8W91/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Your post reminded me that I also take EPA: 1500 mg DHA: 1000 mg lol


I should stay out of these science threads. I know nothing. Your commentary is required, always!

[adam c]

What I am reading is keep your poop pushed in and you can’t get coronavirus

Science

Only if your mouths are more than 6' apart

[killramos]

Only if your mouths are more than 6' apart

There always has to be a catch...

[adam c]

There always has to be a catch...

Well now that mandatory masks are a thing, you can be closer if you wish

[Xtrema]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/emilyearlenbaugh/2020/07/06/cannabis-may-reduce-deadly-covid-19-lung-inflammation-researchers-explain-why/#e6057934d9d1

CBD may help treat lung inflammation caused by COVID.

[SportEL]

That Masks don't work. A Paper referencing Multiple studies

https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy


Why Face Masks Don't Work, According to Science
h8upEg-bEJ8

[Misterman]

Another potential drug for management of virus.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/existing-drug-may-downgrade-covid-threat-to-common-cold-level-jerusalem-study/

[Tik-Tok]

I can't answer "max" per day but a friend who finished medical school told me a few months ago that since we live so far north even if you are working in the sun for 10 hours a day we won't ever get enough Vitamin D from the sun... ever so even then you can take 2000 - 3000UI a day.
]

Not entirely accurate. In the winter this is true, but we're fine in the summer with 20min on a sunny day.

[The_Rural_Juror]

Vitamin D isn't water soluble, so it isn't just pissed out.

Perfect. My body is optimized for Vitamin D absorption.

[Darkane]

Not entirely accurate. In the winter this is true, but we're fine in the summer with 20min on a sunny day.

Surface area counts. You’d better be shirtless with Speedos.

Summer months hardly contribute to D production, even with board shorts and a T shirt.

Need the torso exposed.

[Xtrema]

That Masks don't work. A Paper referencing Multiple studies

https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy


Why Face Masks Don't Work, According to Science


Well, no studies has proven mask to "work". I have read many published studies as well and this is why original WHO guidance didn't include masks. And I hate youtube vid since these guys are just trying to gain views on controversial subject. You don't have to post them. Google and read for yourself.

But if you believe in data, masked countries are having less community spread and there economies are recovering. Ours are not and getting worse by the day.

Asian wore mask for the wrong reason (self preservation) but it got lucky that when enough people wear them, it becomes a community defense. It's not 0, it's less. Richmond BC has 1/3 average community spread cases compared to Canadian average and 1/2 of neighboring Vancouver.

https://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-s-total-covid-19-tally-88-cases-so-far-1.24147058

[adam c]

Well, no studies has proven mask to "work". I have read many published studies as well and this is why original WHO guidance didn't include masks. And I hate youtube vid since these guys are just trying to gain views on controversial subject. You don't have to post them. Google and read for yourself.

But if you believe in data, masked countries are having less community spread and there economies are recovering. Ours are not and getting worse by the day.

Asian wore mask for the wrong reason (self preservation) but it got lucky that when enough people wear them, it becomes a community defense. It's not 0, it's less. Richmond BC has 1/3 average community spread cases compared to Canadian average and 1/2 of neighboring Vancouver.

https://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-s-total-covid-19-tally-88-cases-so-far-1.24147058

The proof is in the pudding as they say, look at the Asian counties compared to Western countries and it's easy to see that Masks are helping

[zechs]

The proof is in the pudding as they say, look at the Asian counties compared to Western countries and it's easy to see that Masks are helping

Asian countries are typically humid areas.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3457514/

Hopefully you are willing to change your mind when presented with new information, as someone likes to say on these forums.

[Xtrema]

Asian countries are typically humid areas.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3457514/

Hopefully you are willing to change your mind when presented with new information, as someone likes to say on these forums.

ah... Florida.

But you are right, low RH may help the spread and there are plenty of AC in Asian countries for the virus to survive indoor.

As for aerosol transmission, thank god COVID19 isn't as bad as SARS. So you have to be near infected to get it. The scientist can debate what's aerosol and what isn't aerosol all day long. Until COVID19 starts to spread within the building via HVAC or sewage throughout the building, I won't call it aerosol transmission yet.

Also, I don't think Vancouver and Richmond has that much different in weather pattern being like 15mins apart. Yeah one has 50% less community spread than the other. What's the variable there?

[adam c]

Asian countries are typically humid areas.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3457514/

Hopefully you are willing to change your mind when presented with new information, as someone likes to say on these forums.

So even less reason for asians to wear masks, but they do so anyways

[max_boost]

Maybe Asians just follow the rules. We aren't rebels like you white people.

[OTown]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7Sv_pS8MgQ

Jesus... If this happens I think we can potentially wave goodbye to a majority of this pandemic

[msommers]

Not to discredit MedCram, far from it. But I would encourage people to try to look at multiple sources of information.

[Buster]

Not to discredit MedCram, far from it. But I would encourage people to try to look at multiple sources of information.

Medcram isn't a source, it's a review of the data that emerges.

[Buster]

This is the entire discussion on which the Medcram was based. And....omg why are we not doing this?>!??!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDj4Zyq3yOA

[Nakadah]

The effects from the virus are more than just health related. Social, phycological, economic, and political issues are raised to the surface. We, as a society or species, cannot go "back" to whatever "normal" was pre-pandemic. There are several reasons mentioned in the podcast why using cheap crappy tests daily is not that simple.

[finboy]

This is the entire discussion on which the Medcram was based. And....omg why are we not doing this?>!??!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDj4Zyq3yOA

Aggregated, rolling time testing vs point in time would be ideal, I recall a few months back a canadian company making a fast testing unit but it seems like it got lost in the mix.

[Xtrema]

Aggregated, rolling time testing vs point in time would be ideal, I recall a few months back a canadian company making a fast testing unit but it seems like it got lost in the mix.

I believe health Canada didn't like the accuracy. But if cost per test is low enough, accuracy probably not a huge deal, you just increase the frequency.

[Buster]

I believe health Canada didn't like the accuracy. But if cost per test is low enough, accuracy probably not a huge deal, you just increase the frequency.

Another minor pedantic point: "accuracy" is either related to specificity (does the test pick up non-COVID virus particles - ie a false positive), or sensitivity (does the test pick up low levels of virus or miss them - ie false negative).

But you're right - we seem to be barking up the wrong tree by preferring sensitivity over frequency. It's really fascinating. Low sensitivity tests only miss people for a few hours of infectivity.

[zechs]

Wearing a mask doesn't matter apparently as they don't work, according to the CDC.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article


In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2

[sabad66]

Wearing a mask doesn't matter apparently as they don't work, according to the CDC.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Isn't that because Flu virus is airborne whereas COVID is spread via droplets? Masks don't block airborne particles, but they block droplets pretty well

[Buster]

Wearing a mask doesn't matter apparently as they don't work, according to the CDC.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Oh dear.

- It's a study of influenza
- "Most studies were underpowered because of limited sample size, and some studies also reported suboptimal adherence in the face mask group."
- " However, as with hand hygiene, face masks might be able to reduce the transmission of other infections and therefore have value"

Do people actually read things they post? Do people know how to assess what a source is trying to say?

[Disoblige]

Wow, I agree with Buster here.

Zechs, that is pretty bad comprehension and analysis of data.

[Xtrema]

Wearing a mask doesn't matter apparently as they don't work, according to the CDC.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Again we all read the same stuff you do. Don't treat inconclusive as useless, it said there in abstract that there is knowledge gap and further research are needed.

Also, we have never dealt with something like COVID19, that variable alone invalidate previous studies which are already on shaky ground.

The only data we should look at are the results of mask used population vs non-masked populations over this pandemic so far. While people like to point out improper use as reason not to use them, there are plenty of improper use and violation in masked countries as well.

Just look at Ontario and jurisdictions with mandatory masks:
https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/07/mandatory-masks-ontario/

The result is, they are now testing more than AB per capita and still yield about same amount of positive tests as AB even when they have 3x the population and much higher density in TO/GTA. For our population, 30-40/day positive rate is tolerable. Beyond that, we are not controlling this.

Again, everything is a moving target and we are only 4 months into learning about COVID 19. Once we tried something and it didn't work, we will try something else again or worst case scenario, lock down which NOBODY wants. Everything we are doing is to avoid another lock down but people keep trying to push us there and against or not following all recommended measures.

[adam c]

Wearing a mask doesn't matter apparently as they don't work, according to the CDC.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Ugh.. go away back to Edmonton

[Xtrema]

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/there-are-days-when-i-worry-this-is-never-going-to-go-away-living-with-covid-19-for-the-long-haul

This week's focus seems to be on long haulers.


https://youtu.be/tFXr14xmuGw

[Buster]

Aggregated, rolling time testing vs point in time would be ideal, I recall a few months back a canadian company making a fast testing unit but it seems like it got lost in the mix.

The public health officials have a tough job. They need to integrate this new info into policy. And it made me quite different than previous policies making managing public sentiment difficult.

Having said that there is no excuse for the fda to be the ones determining policy. They should be assessing tests based on the design intentions of the tests themselves and let the pros determine how to them utilize those tests.

[zechs]

Isn't that because Flu virus is airborne whereas COVID is spread via droplets? Masks don't block airborne particles, but they block droplets pretty well

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/influenza-might-spread-air-study-finds-n839166

The answer is maybe apparently. Which at this time seems to align with the understanding of coronavirus spread.

Buster, yes its a study of influenza. Are you suggesting that they are so radically different that masks work for one but not for the other when masks function strictly on the size of the particle? Masks primarily work for droplets, not so good for aerosolized. Both virus are possibly aerosolized, as noted for influenza above.

For Coronavirus in general
"Virions (or "particles") of coronary viruses are spherical particles between 0.06 micron and 0.14 micron in diameter, averaging about 0.125 micron, measured by electron microscope (Zhu et al, 2020)."

For Influenza
"The virus particle (also called the virion) is 80–120 nanometers in diameter such that the smallest virions adopt an elliptical shape. The length of each particle varies considerably, owing to the fact that influenza is pleomorphic, and can be in excess of many tens of micrometers, producing filamentous virions."

So you are suggesting that a mask that doesn't stop one, will stop the other? That is certainly not a scientific understanding of the data available. Please present any relevant articles prior to the politicized environment we are in now of masks preventing the spread of virus.

Most studies are always underpowered and do not have great sample sets, as is becoming readily apparent with this whole pandemic.

I would like to see multiple studies in aggregate that show masks have an effect prior to 2020. Happy to change my mind, haven't seen it yet. Came here for "science", shockingly disappointed that this thread is like arguing about climate change.

[Buster]

Buster, yes its a study of influenza. Are you suggesting that they are so radically different that masks work for one but not for the other when masks function strictly on the size of the particle?

I'm suggesting that you posted a review for influenza.

You have to be careful on wording. You said "masks don't work." What you should have said is: "some studies done on influenza have not shown that masks limit transmission - although the studies are not conclusive. It is unknown at this time how if influenza transmission is similar enough to COVID transmission to establish if these studies can be used as comparisons." Or something similar.

I think it's good that you are in this thread as it will help you learn and understand the process of science and how to think about what the data tells you and what it does not tell you - and how to tell which is which. I encourage you to follow along and ask questions and post things that you think are relevant. This is the only way to learn and get better at these things.

[The_Rural_Juror]

I needed to brush up on my biology.

ydqReeTV_vk

[Misterman]

Pretty sure this was the thread everyone was rambling about Vitamin D for 2 pages. Rhonda Patrick was on Joe Rogan podcast again a few months ago. This is an excerpt where she goes on a rant about vitamin D with a ton of good information. I hope I didn't miss someone posting this already and that's why you were all talking about D.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBSfIckPV44

[zechs]

You have to be careful on wording. You said "masks don't work." What you should have said is: "some studies done on influenza have not shown that masks limit transmission - although the studies are not conclusive. It is unknown at this time how if influenza transmission is similar enough to COVID transmission to establish if these studies can be used as comparisons." Or something similar.



I am certainly questioning the fact that your argument sounds strangely like those of the religious. "You just have to believe, the science is inconclusive, we may never know".

It also is telling that you can not produce any supporting documentation prior to 2020 that shows resoundingly in the affirmative that masks do something beyond the trivial.

As I mentioned, a strange lack of science in the science thread. A lot of almost religious ferocity and believing though.

[Buster]

I am certainly questioning the fact that your argument sounds strangely like those of the religious. "You just have to believe, the science is inconclusive, we may never know".

It also is telling that you can not produce any supporting documentation prior to 2020 that shows resoundingly in the affirmative that masks do something beyond the trivial.

As I mentioned, a strange lack of science in the science thread. A lot of almost religious ferocity and believing though.

Science is about the act of turning uncertainty into certainty over time. It's about the process. Every hypothesis requires that further data is required to take the next step and figure out the next hypothesis. If you are looking for certainties, science is hardly the place to look. As I said, I'm happy that you are posting here and learning - I wish more people would do that and if I can help you along that process, then I will. I don't think you will find much religious fervor, although people do tend to have strong opinions about which direction they think the data will point- but that's not faith per se, that's just differences of opinion.

[Buster]

Let's get this done.

https://time.com/5873444/radically-rethink-covid-19-testing-approach/?amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

[ExtraSlow]

I'm down with antigen testing.

[Buster]

This is a really interesting TWiV.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=jUrLJjcfAhk&feature=emb_logo

[Buster]

Medcram Q+A with Michael Mina


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3seIAs-73G8

[max_boost]

can you sum it up for us homie. we need a Beyond Corona task force with daily legit updates.

[Xtrema]

can you sum it up for us homie. we need a Beyond Corona task force with daily legit updates.

Stop the current PCR lab tests which has a huge lag and cost and too slow in quarantining people.

Get the $1 test approved so in 15mins anyone tested positive can be told to quarantine and let them back into the society when the same $1 test clears them.

Once FDA/Health Canada approves this, then this tool can be integrated into health policy where employer can administrate frequent testing of employees and slow the spread. And this will be a great tool for school reopening as well.

[Buster]

^ What he said.

If you can tell people that they are infected, and then change their behaviour, then you can drive the R0 of the infection way below 1 almost instantly. These $1 test strips probably wouldn't be as good as a vaccine, but it would have a similar impact.

Edit: I think we can start manufacturing millions of them per day basically starting next week. But there is no regulator with the job of approving tests that are intended for surveillance (rather than diagnosis).

[Buster]

Medcram has been doing a great series of short YT videos with Michael Mina.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhgu_OcERkw

- - - Updated - - -


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyHlPRSPNUU

[Xtrema]

Cheap self testing is nice but I guess it's false hope since people are not quarantining on positive test....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/us/miami-university-student-party-covid-trnd/index.html

[Buster]

Cheap self testing is nice but I guess it's false hope since people are not quarantining on positive test....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/us/miami-university-student-party-covid-trnd/index.html

People said the same thing about masks...and it's now turned so that if you aren't wearing a mask you look like an idiot. Social pressure is pretty strong.

You don't need to eliminate the idiots when it comes to vaccines or self-testing. You just need enough people. Mina discusses it right in one of those videos.

[Buster]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkia1FvuMnE

[kertejud2]

People said the same thing about masks...and it's now turned so that if you aren't wearing a mask you look like an idiot. Social pressure is pretty strong.


I was in a store the other day, and as we were waiting in line somebody walks in, sees the half a dozen or so people in the store with masks on, rolls his eyes and pulls his mask from his pocket and puts it on.

[zechs]

People said the same thing about masks...and it's now turned so that if you aren't wearing a mask you look like an idiot. Social pressure is pretty strong.

.

This may come as a shock to you, and brace yourself for this; there is more to Alberta than Calgary :rofl:

Most people outside of mandatory mask cities don't wear them. Even then, its typically only big box stores and coporations that are seriously enforcing the rules in Calgary and Edmonton.

There is a large amount of people that think you are an idiot for wearing a mask with little to no evidence it does anything and even possibly makes it worse.

It is quite telling that another month has gone by, and all talk of masks is gone because they are not even able to remotely generate data in favour of masks. And you still haven't provided a lick of evidence in the supportive of the belief. I guess if the gov told you to shove your thumb up your ass because it prevents transmission, you would because "you just don't know it could work".

[Buster]

I'm fine with those people thinking I'm am idiot.

[The_Rural_Juror]

I'm fine with those people thinking I'm am idiot.

You yous am certainly not.

[Xtrema]

It is quite telling that another month has gone by, and all talk of masks is gone because they are not even able to remotely generate data in favour of masks. And you still haven't provided a lick of evidence in the supportive of the belief. I guess if the gov told you to shove your thumb up your ass because it prevents transmission, you would because "you just don't know it could work".

Just because the info either doesn't appear in your circle or you actively label it as fake news, doesn't mean there is no data.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/

Not proven yet. But there are a lot of data shows that the lack of proven vaccine, it's the best weapon we got for now.

[Buster]

Just because the info either doesn't appear in your circle or you actively label it as fake news, doesn't mean there is no data.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/

Not proven yet. But there are a lot of data shows that the lack of proven vaccine, it's the best weapon we got for now.

yeah, there is sufficient evidence to make the discussion a pointless one.

[Misterman]

yeah, there is sufficient evidence to make the discussion a pointless one.

And now we have Hinshaw basically confirming masks are pointless.

[zechs]

And now we have Hinshaw basically confirming masks are pointless.

No, that's only in YOUR echo chamber you covid denier/anti-masker /sarcasm

[Tik-Tok]

And now we have Hinshaw basically confirming masks are pointless.

Source?

[Misterman]

No, that's only in YOUR echo chamber you covid denier/anti-masker /sarcasm

No I am not Hinshaw. Sorry for the confusion. If you think she is a denier/anti masker, you can take that up with her. Maybe she is just a puppet for the UCP now? That's up to you to decide for yourself. I'm just relaying the update.



Source?

Update the other day about how they have wrapped up their asymptomatic testing. And essentially asymptomatic spread AND spread from contact with confirmed cases(wish they would have elaborated more on that little tidbit add in) is very low(asymptomatic testing revealed 7 cases in every 10,000). The main reason they have pushed mask use is due to the presumed high asymptomatic spread potential.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7341602/alberta-health-corornavirus-covid-19-september-17/

[Xtrema]

Update the other day about how they have wrapped up their asymptomatic testing. And essentially asymptomatic spread AND spread from contact with confirmed cases(wish they would have elaborated more on that little tidbit add in) is very low(asymptomatic testing revealed 7 cases in every 10,000). The main reason they have pushed mask use is due to the presumed high asymptomatic spread potential.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7341602/alberta-health-corornavirus-covid-19-september-17/

That's a dangerous conclusion. Since we are not forcing everyone into asymptomatic testing. Just volunteers.

There is a significant number of people who are sick will also not go in for testing because the implication. Those are the people we need to force a mask on. If anything, people who goes in for asymptomatic testing, we really don't have to worry about masks on them, chancing are they are probably responsible enough to be careful and considerate enough to wear a mask.

Also, data isn't based on the same baseline since mask is not mandatory thru out the province.

[zechs]

No I am not Hinshaw. ]

Sorry, this forum's setup is different from what I am used to. Was agreeing with you, trying to express how some see what you said in a sarcastic manner. Failed miserably.

[Misterman]

Sorry, this forum's setup is different from what I am used to. Was agreeing with you, trying to express how some see what you said in a sarcastic manner. Failed miserably.

Oh gotcha. We need a /s emoji for sarcasm posts. I don't know why I read your /sarcasm as something you were also accusing me of. lol

[Misterman]

Also, data isn't based on the same baseline since mask is not mandatory thru out the province.

The data isn't really relevant to whether masks are mandated in your area or not. The data is demonstrating that asymptomatic spread is unlikely and low risk. The purpose of masks(according to the government) is to prevent asymptomatic spread.

In any sense, does any one know what the end goal is here? All I ever heard about was flattening the curve. We have decimated the curve now, but the metric has changed and suddenly we care about active cases instead of real problems any more. I guess death and hospitalizations weren't scaring people enough now that those numbers are virtually nonexistent. Even if these unfounded anecdotes about long term effects proves to be true, I'm still not seeing how this response could be deemed worth it.

[Xtrema]

The data isn't really relevant to whether masks are mandated in your area or not. The data is demonstrating that asymptomatic spread is unlikely and low risk. The purpose of masks(according to the government) is to prevent asymptomatic spread.

In any sense, does any one know what the end goal is here? All I ever heard about was flattening the curve. We have decimated the curve now, but the metric has changed and suddenly we care about active cases instead of real problems any more. I guess death and hospitalizations weren't scaring people enough now that those numbers are virtually nonexistent. Even if these unfounded anecdotes about long term effects proves to be true, I'm still not seeing how this response could be deemed worth it.

The only absolute concrete conclusion on asymptotic spread is force everyone in AB to take a test within a 14 day period.

Random samples may show something, may not. In this case, it's a waste of resources other than giving people peace of mind visiting senior relatives or going into school openings.

You are right on the messaging on what we are fight for now tho. At 1% infection rate and holding, while not ideal, to me that's as good as all the current policy is going to give us other than going back to lockdown 1.0. And so far, we have not had to dial back anything yet in AB, unlike ON.

If infection rate is at 0.1%, then we can probably go back to 2019 way of living. But again, I'm not Hinshaw.

[ThePenIsMightier]

8UvFhIFzaac

Could someone pick apart any of the flaws that may exist in this video? This gentleman appears to be quite educated and is very well spoken and articulate. He's saying a lot of things in a very articulate, informed manner that support what many angry mobs believe, but are too dumb to effectively communicate.

He's saying some things that I've wanted to hear someone say, as well. So, if this is a trap, how do we not fall into it? Is he fundamentally wrong about the Gompertz Curve? Is his explanation of Sweden's mild flu season from 2019 wrong? Is his buttery, Irish voice lulling me into becoming an asshole anti-masker?

**I copied this video over from the other thread. I'm not the person that initially posted it. I think it's better, here.

[Xtrema]

8UvFhIFzaac

Could someone pick apart any of the flaws that may exist in this video? This gentleman appears to be quite educated and is very well spoken and articulate. He's saying a lot of things in a very articulate, informed manner that support what many angry mobs believe, but are too dumb to effectively communicate.

He's saying some things that I've wanted to hear someone say, as well. So, if this is a trap, how do we not fall into it? Is he fundamentally wrong about the Gompertz Curve? Is his explanation of Sweden's mild flu season from 2019 wrong? Is his buttery, Irish voice lulling me into becoming an asshole anti-masker?

**I copied this video over from the other thread. I'm not the person that initially posted it. I think it's better, here.

I didn't sit thru the whole thing but remember that current policies will reduce deaths compared to a normal flu season. So if anything we now have data on when we do nothing and we do have data on when we do lock down, and data on open with masks. So using lower death data now as proof to undo current policy may not be best argument.

Also, is there another mutation since May? We already know March and May are different strain already.

All I know is North American's view toward masks and vaccine will mean we ARE not going back to old normal until at least 2023. There is no way 2 people infected with normal flu can shut down 5 units at a hospital, kills 3 and put 300 worker out of commission for 2 weeks and patients has to rerouted to other facilities.

But I think like South Park's pandemic special, the 2 sides are already set. You are not going to change any minds with facts or interupetation of facts that fit your narrative.

I think we are doing fine in AB for now at 1% positive rate. I don't see a need to further lock down or restrictions. But Ontario and Quebec are freaking out but their case increase rate is a cause for concern at 2% and 4% postive.

And if you guys loves death data....
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

Ontario now has experience daily deaths similar to Apr/May during the peak last few days, may have prompted the freakout by Ford gov.

[Buster]

8UvFhIFzaac

Could someone pick apart any of the flaws that may exist in this video? This gentleman appears to be quite educated and is very well spoken and articulate. He's saying a lot of things in a very articulate, informed manner that support what many angry mobs believe, but are too dumb to effectively communicate.

He's saying some things that I've wanted to hear someone say, as well. So, if this is a trap, how do we not fall into it? Is he fundamentally wrong about the Gompertz Curve? Is his explanation of Sweden's mild flu season from 2019 wrong? Is his buttery, Irish voice lulling me into becoming an asshole anti-masker?

**I copied this video over from the other thread. I'm not the person that initially posted it. I think it's better, here.

Can I give you the short answer?

It's mostly bullshit. The long answer would take me some typing, if you insist.

[ThePenIsMightier]

Can I give you the short answer?

It's mostly bullshit. The long answer would take me some typing, if you insist.

I think it deserves more typing than that. He's properly educated and his curves seem to match based on analyzing existing data, not forecasts. Plus, his explanations for Sweden's weak flu season sound pretty damn good.

[Buster]

I think it deserves more typing than that. He's properly educated and his curves seem to match based on analyzing existing data, not forecasts. Plus, his explanations for Sweden's weak flu season sound pretty damn good.

I'll throw some points out there that disrupt his line of thinking:

- His thesis seems to be that sars-CoV-2 is = to the dynamics of the flu, and he cherry picks data to fit. What's next? If he starts discussing fibonacci curves and such, I'll just laugh. This guy is basically a layman chartist.
- His other major assumption is that the majority (all?) of the current positives are due to RNA fragments rather than active virus. Yet he presents no data to support this claim. This actually is something of a concern, since this does actually happen. But it is a significant stretch to assume that it is what comprises current positivity rates.
- He doesn't even use words properly, or invents words. He thinks that cases are = deaths and hospitalizations? Wut? He invented the word "casedemic" I think? It just sounds dumb.

I can keep going.

I'm always hesitant to impugn someone based on their bona fides as science does not require authority, just analysis. However, given the dearth of supportive actual data in his "analysis" rather than correlations, I think it is worth discussing who this guy is. He's a biochemical engineer, with no experience, training or education in epidemiology or infectious disease. He got sick, and invented a quack all-meat diet or some such and presents himself as an expert on a variety of topics.

[sabad66]

There’s a good rebuttal video here if you have the time:

DUDg5ossirU

One thing that Igor is clearly wrong about is that early in his video he says 80% of people already have de facto immunity from other corona viruses like the cold etc. Clearly bullshit because if that were true, that would mean that the countries already have herd immunity and it would have never been an epidemic in the first place.

There’s a lot more bullshit that is proven wrong but that’s an easy one. Overall Igor makes himself appear smart, but he isn’t. Don’t forget to donate to his patreon page and/or set up monthly donations though! ;)

[Xtrema]

As someone who occasionally utter BS that sounds smart to get people who don't know shit to go away, I identify with Igor within 5mins of that video and didn't really want to pad his youtube stat.

I learn from this inspiration video:

https://youtu.be/NpnEiOOfu1Q

[Buster]

I found his accent irrationally infuriating.

[SportEL]

So do the useless Slave Muzzles show a correlation in preventing the spread of Wuhan Virus? Nope.

--> https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/10/06/do-masks-really-work-heres-what-the-charts-tell-us-n1009481